Visit Note | Banking
April 16, 2010
Union Bank of India NEUTRAL
CMP Rs305
Positives Priced-in Target Price -
We recently met the Management of Union Bank of India (UBI). The key takeaways Investment Period -
from the meeting are highlighted in this note.
Stock Info
Profitability to Improve: Our discussions with the management regarding tech-
Sector Banking
enabled channel and product roll-outs indicate continued focus on enhancing its
retail deposit franchise. Market Cap (Rs cr) 15,396
The bank added 215 outlets during 9MFY2010 and is planning to grow its network Beta 0.6
at approx 10% p.a. In fact, the bank improved Savings deposits market share by 52 Week High / Low 312/157
10bp in 9MFY2010 to 3.3% (one of few PSU banks like SBI to increase marketshare).
Avg. Daily Volume 1,84,999
With improving credit demand, the bank has ended 4QFY2010 with an advances
Face Value (Rs) 10
growth of 23.3% yoy (as against 8.4% YTD growth at the end of 3QFY2010), in
fact exceeding deposit growth of 22.7% yoy. We expect CASA market share gains BSE Sensex 17,591
and improving CD ratio to drive improvement in NIMs to 2.7% in 4QFY2010 (vs. Nifty 5,263
2.1% in 2QFY2010 when strong retail deposit growth and low credit demand had
Reuters Code UNBK.BO
led to a temporary decline in the CD ratio to 66.7%). In FY2011E as well we expect
NII growth of 26.0% (one of the highest amongst peers). Bloomberg Code UNBK@IN
Concerns about retirements: Regarding large-scale retirements in PSU banks, the
Shareholding Pattern (%)
management shared that 58% of top management (AGM and above) were due for
retirement across PSU Banks over the next two years and expressed concerns about Promoters 55.4
effective replacement of this experienced core management, especially considering MF / Banks / Indian FIs 17.3
the knowledge-intensive nature of the banking business.
FII / NRIs / OCBs 17.5
Valuation:
Outlook and Valuation: We have a positive view on the bank's strategy of relatively
Indian Public / Others 9.8
more aggressive branch expansion and customer-centric technology solutions that
are driving CASA market share gains. However, at the CMP the stock is trading at
,
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
1.3x FY2012E ABV vs. a 5-year range of 1.1-1.4x and average of 1.3x. In our
view, current valuations capture the near-term improvement in profitability due to Sensex 0.2 60.7 28.4
increasing NIMs as well as structurally positive deposit franchise. Accordingly, with UBI 15.0 88.3 191.4
the stock having outperformed the Bankex by 10% since beginning of 3QFY2010,
we recently downgraded the stock to Neutral and maintain the same at this juncture.
Key Financials
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
NII 3,814 3,920 4,938 5,605
% chg 23.6 2.8 26.0 13.5
Profit
Net Profit 1727 2007 2159 2470
% chg 24.5 16.2 7.6 14.4
NIM (%) 2.8 2.3 2.5 2.4
EPS (Rs) 34.2 39.7 42.8 48.9 Vaibhav Agrawal
+91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 333
P/E (x) 9.0 7.7 7.2 6.3
Email: vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com
P/ABV (x) 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.3
RoA (%) 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 Amit Rane
+91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 326
RoE (%) 27.2 25.6 22.8 21.9
Email: amitn.rane@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Union Bank of India | Visit Note
CASA Growth to be better than Peers
We have a positive outlook on the bank's strong traction in retail deposits, especially
CASA - a key competitive advantage. Our discussions with the management regarding
tech-enabled channel and product roll-outs indicate continued focus on enhancing
the deposit franchise.
One of the few PSU Banks to have The bank added 215 outlets during 9MFY2010 and is planning to grow its network at
improved its Savings Market share in ~10% p.a. Hence, we are relatively positive on the Bank's CASA growth outlook,
9MFY2010 owing to the relatively larger branch expansion plans that the Bank has than its peers.
In fact, the bank improved Savings deposits market share by 10bp in 9MFY2010 to
3.3% (one of few PSU banks like SBI to increase marketshare). During 3QFY2010, the
bank was able to improve its CASA ratio to 32.3% (from 30% at the end of FY2009),
registering a strong 12% YTD and 24.1% yoy growth in CASA deposits, reflective of
the strong traction in Retail deposits.
Focusing on Tech-enabled Solutions to
ech-enabled
Tech- In order to compete with private banks, the bank is leveraging its advantage of a pan-
gain CASA market share India network, spread across rural and urban areas, of about 2,900 outlets and
2,250 ATMs, which are technologically up-to-date. The management pointed out
that they are rapidly closing gaps in tech-enabled products and functionalities such as
online banking, any branch banking, Cards for all types of accounts, online remittances,
etc. At the same time, as compared to private and regional banks, they have a much
stronger distribution reach, especially in semi-urban and rural areas. This gives them
a competitive advantage in offering services such as sophisticated cash management
services, intra-country remittances (for instance by workers in urban areas to their
hinterlands where private banks do not have a presence), etc.
Use of Alternative channels increasing The bank's continuing focus on offering customers a comprehensive range of channels
rapidly is evident from the fact that during FY2010, proportion of transactions through
Alternative Channels (such as Online Banking, RTGS, NEFT, etc.), which have increased
from 6% in FY2008 to 35% in FY2010. Management expects this to improve further to
50% by FY2011E.
Technology
Innovative use of Technology to gain As indicated by the management, having already rolled out ATMs and cards, the next
Competitive Advantage area where the bank has plans to be aggressive is in rolling out Point of Sale terminals
with a target to open 25,000 POS Terminals by FY2011E and 1,00,000 by the end of
FY2012E. As an example of innovativeness, the bank plans to introduce the facility to
use POS terminals in rural areas where ATMs are not viable, to withdraw up to Rs1,000
via the merchant at a small fee. Historically, the bank has enjoyed a strong market
share in trade finance, which it now plans to leverage to roll out the POS terminals. In
our view, this is one of several (and increasing) instances of how PSU banks are not
only closing technology gaps but also combining new products and services with their
existing strengths to gain competitive advantages.
April 16, 2010 2
Union Bank of India | Visit Note
Exhibit 1: Savings Deposit Market share
(Rs cr) FY2007 FY2009 9MFY2010 Incremental Incremental Change over Change over
FY2007 9MFY2010 FY2007 FY2009
-9MFY2010
SBI 129,137 198,224 245,539 116,403 47,315
(%) 20.5 22.5 23.5 28.0 28.5 3.0 0.9
UBI 20,763 28,545 34,788 14,025 6,243
(%) 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.8 0.0 0.1
PNB 48,089 62,646 72,628 24,539 9,982
(%) 7.6 7.1 6.9 5.9 6.0 (0.7) (0.2)
BOB 31,577 42,487 49,542 17,965 7,055
(%) 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.3 4.2 (0.3) (0.1)
Next 6 largest PSBs 138,876 179,243 202,970 64,094 23,727
(%) 25.3 23.6 22.7 18.8 18.0 (2.6) (0.9)
AXSB 12,126 25,822 29,628 17,502 3,806
(%) 1.9 2.9 2.8 4.2 2.3 0.9 (0.1)
HDFCBK 19,585 34,915 46,696 27,111 11,781
(%) 3.1 4.0 4.5 6.5 7.1 1.4 0.5
ICICIBK 28,839 41,036 51,054 22,215 10,018
(%) 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.3 6.0 0.3 0.2
Total 408,228 584,374 698,057 289,829 113,683
Sector Total 630,639 880,628 997,224 366,585 116,596
(%) 64.7 66.4 70.0 79.1 97.5
Source: Company, Angel Research
Credit to Deposit Ratio to drive NIMs in the near term
UBI underperformed the Bankex by 51% during 1HFY2010 as its CD ratio dipped to
66.7% due to low credit demand and NIMs touched a low of 2.1%. Our positive
outlook at that juncture was underpinned by the fact that this was a short-term headwind,
while the strong traction in the bank's retail deposits was a key structural positive.
With improving credit demand, the bank has ended FY2010 with an advances growth
of 23.3% yoy (as against 8.4% YTD growth at the end of 3QFY2010), in fact exceeding
deposit growth of 22.7% yoy. We expect CASA market share gains and improving CD
ratio to drive improvement in NIMs to 2.7% in 4QFY2010. In FY2011E as well we
expect NII growth of 26.0% (one of the highest amongst peers).
April 16, 2010 3
Union Bank of India | Visit Note
Exhibit 2: Trend in Advances & Deposits
40.0
35.0
30.0
(% yoy)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
4QFY2008
1QFY2009
2QFY2009
3QFY2009
4QFY2009
1QFY2010
2QFY2010
3QFY2010
4QFY2010E
Advances Growth Deposit Growth
Source: Company, Angel Research
Moderate Asset Quality pressures, lower CAR relative to peers
Union Bank had cautiously implemented a relatively more calibrated loan growth
strategy following the crisis. The advances grew at a sedate 14.6% yoy at the end of
3QFY2010 and the Yield on Advances (YoA) of the bank declined by 54bp (against a
decline of 5bp for peers) in 9MFY2010 over FY2008 levels. In our view, the bank's
conservative strategy is likely to result in relatively lower loan loss provisions going
forward (accordingly we have factored in 6.4% yoy increase in NPA provisions in
FY2011E, close to the average increase for PSU banks under our coverage). The
Bank's Gross and Net NPAs stood at 2.0% and 0.6% respectively in 3QFY2010, with
cumulative restructured Advances at Rs4,711cr, forming 4.9% of the total loans (55%
of the Networth), indicative of the relatively moderate asset quality of the bank. At the
end of 3QFY2010, provision coverage (incl. Technical Write-offs) at 80% was also
amongst the healthiest in the sector.
The Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of the bank stood at 13.5%, with Tier-1 Capital of
8.7%. The bank has also approached the Government for an infusion of Rs1,800cr,
however, nothing concrete has been announced by the Government on this front
so far.
Exhibit 3: Trend in Asset Quality Exhibit 4: Restructuring / Networth Ratio
2.5 140 131
2.0 120
100
(%)
1.5
76
(%)
80 73
67
1.0 63 60
60 55
43 40
0.5
40 32
22
- 20 15 12 10
3QFY2008
4QFY2008
1QFY2009
2QFY2009
3QFY2009
4QFY2009
1QFY2010
2QFY2010
3QFY2010
2
-
ICICIBK
UNBK
SBI
SIB
OBC
IOB
PNB
BOI
CRPBK
AXSB
BOB
INDBK
HDFCBK
FEDBK
DENBK
Gross NPA Net NPA
Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research
April 16, 2010 4
Union Bank of India | Visit Note
Concerns regarding retirements
We also discussed the impact of large-scale retirements in PSU banks over the next
two years.
PSU banks have the following organization structure:
Executive Director and Managing Director
Scale VII : General Manager (GM)
Scale VI : Dy. General Manager (DGM)
Scale V : Asst General Manager (AGM)
Scale IV : Chief General manager (CGM)
Scale III : Sr Manager
Scale II : Manager
Scale I : Probationary Officers (PO)
Source: Company, Angel Research
The government had stopped recruitment in PSU Banks after 1985 and this hiring
freeze came to an end only in 2005. This imbalance is likely to result in a sudden
acute scarcity of experienced officers for PSU banks at the top management level. The
management shared that 58% of top management (AGM and above) were due for
retirement across PSU Banks over the next two years and expressed concerns about
effective replacement of this experienced core management, especially considering
the knowledge-intensive nature of the banking business.
In fact, compensation levels for fresh recruits and less-experienced staff have generally
been seen to match with the salaries offered by private banks for similarly experienced
staff. However, compensation tends to increase exponentially with increasing experience
in the case of private banks, while PSU banks have usually lagged behind in this
respect. Hence, over the next 2 years, PSU banks may face a challenge in managing
this massive and abrupt transition in their top management in a smooth and cost-
effective fashion.
Outlook and Valuation
We have a positive view on the bank's strategy of relatively more aggressive branch
expansion and customer-centric technology solutions that are driving CASA market
,
share gains. However, at the CMP the stock is trading at 1.3x FY2012E ABV vs. a
5-year range of 1.1-1.4x and average of 1.3x. In our view, current valuations capture
the near-term improvement in profitability due to increasing NIMs as well as structurally
positive deposit franchise. Accordingly, with the stock having outperformed the Bankex
by 10% since beginning of 3QFY2010, we recently downgraded the stock to Neutral
and maintain the same at this juncture.
April 16, 2010 5
Union Bank of India | Visit Note
Exhibit 5: P/ABV Band - Union Bank of India
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Sep-02
Mar-03
Jun-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Jun-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Price 0.3x 0.65x 1x 1.35x 1.7x
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 6: Stock Performance v/s Bankex during 4QFY2010
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
31-Dec
7-Jan
14-Jan
21-Jan
28-Jan
1-Apr
8-Apr
15-Apr
4-Mar
11-Mar
18-Mar
25-Mar
4-Feb
11-Feb
18-Feb
25-Feb
UBI Bankex
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 7: Comparative Valuations
CMP P/ABV (x)
P/ABV P/E (x) EPS Growth (%) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Banks FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E
UNBK 305 1.8 1.5 1.3 7.7 7.1 6.2 16.2 7.6 14.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 25.6 22.8 21.9
BOI 360 1.5 1.3 1.1 11.0 8.9 7.3 (42.5) 23.3 22.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 13.9 15.3 16.5
CRPBK 487 1.2 1.1 0.9 6.2 5.6 5.1 26.1 11.8 9.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 21.1 20.1 19.0
INDBK 181 1.2 1.0 0.8 5.2 4.8 4.4 24.7 7.6 8.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 24.7 22.2 20.5
IOB 94 0.9 0.8 0.7 6.3 6.9 7.0 (38.3) (9.4) (1.4) 0.6 0.5 0.4 13.1 10.8 9.8
OBC 326 1.1 1.0 0.9 6.9 7.8 7.3 30.6 (11.1) 5.8 1.0 0.7 0.7 17.1 13.5 12.9
PNB 995 2.0 1.6 1.4 8.5 7.7 6.7 20.1 10.1 14.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 25.4 23.1 22.1
DENABK 79 1.0 0.8 0.7 4.7 3.9 3.6 13.7 21.9 9.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 20.2 20.6 18.9
Source: Company, Angel Research
April 16, 2010 6
Union Bank of India | Visit Note
Profit & Loss Statement Rs crore Key Ratios
Y/E March FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Y/E March FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Net Interest Income 3,814 3,920 4,938 5,605
Profitability Ratios (%)
YoY Growth (%) 23.6 2.8 26.0 13.5
NIMs 2.8 2.3 2.5 2.4
Other Income 1,483 1,908 1,708 1,999
Cost to Income ratio 41.8 41.4 41.4 42.7
YoY Growth (%) 20.3 28.7 (10.5) 17.0
RoA 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0
Operating Income 5,296 5,828 6,646 7,603
RoE 27.2 25.6 22.8 21.9
YoY Growth (%) 22.6 10.0 14.0 14.4
B/S Ratios (%)
Operating Expenses 2,214 2,414 2,752 3,248
CASA ratio 30.1 31.3 31.2 31.0
YoY Growth (%) 39.0 9.0 14.0 18.0
Credit/Deposit ratio 69.6 72.7 72.7 73.3
Pre - Provision Profit
Provision Profit 3,082 3,414 3,894 4,356
CAR 11.2 13.2 12.3 12.4
YoY Growth (%) 13.1 10.8 14.1 11.9
- Tier I 6.9 7.6 7.1 7.2
Prov. & Cont.
rov. 725 675 946 984
Asset Quality (%)
YoY Growth (%) (16.2) (6.9) 40.2 4.0
Tax Gross NPAs 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.2
Profit Before Tax 2,357 2,739 2,947 3,372
YoY Growth (%) 26.7 16.2 7.6 14.4 Net NPAs 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
Prov. for Taxation
rov. Taxation 630 732 788 901 Slippages 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.3
as a % of PBT 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 NPA prov. / avg. assets 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
PAT 1,727 2,007 2,159 2,470 Provision coverage 83.1 91.5 90.9 90.4
YoY Growth (%) 24.5 16.2 7.6 14.4 Per Share Data (Rs)
EPS 34.2 39.7 42.8 48.9
ABVPS (75% Cover) 139.7 170.6 204.0 241.8
Balance Sheet Rs crore
DPS 5.0 7.5 8.0 9.5
Y/E March FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Valuation Ratios
Share Capital 505 505 505 505
P/E (x) 9.0 7.7 7.2 6.3
Reserve & Surplus 8,235 9,799 11,485 13,394
P/ABVPS (x) 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.3
Deposits 138,703 163,669 193,130 225,962
Dividend Yield 1.6 2.4 2.6 3.1
Growth (%) 33.5 18.0 18.0 17.0
DuPont Analysis
DuPont
Borrowings 3,885 3,634 4,289 5,018
NII 2.7 2.2 2.4 2.3
Tier 2 Capital 4,890 6,846 8,078 9,532 (-) Prov. Exp. 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4
Other Liab. & Prov. 4,757 5,497 6,655 7,835 Adj. NII 2.2 1.8 1.9 1.9
Total Liabilities 160,976 189,951 224,142 262,246 Treasury 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Cash balances 8,992 8,183 9,656 11,298 Int. Sens. Inc. 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9
Bank balances 6,993 7,598 8,966 10,490 Other Inc. 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Investments 42,997 48,196 56,966 65,353 Op. Inc. 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.7
Advances 96,534 119,027 140,452 165,733 Opex 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3
Growth (%) 29.8 23.3 18.0 18.0 PBT 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4
Fixed Assets 2,335 2,673 3,059 3,472 Taxes 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Other Assets 3,124 4,274 5,043 5,901 RoA 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0
Total Assets 160,976 189,951 224,142 262,246 Leverage 22.5 22.4 21.9 21.6
Growth (%) 29.7 18.0 18.0 17.0 RoE 27.2 25.6 22.8 21.9
April 16, 2010 7
Union Bank of India
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Disclosure of Interest Statement Union Bank of India
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
Union Bank of India
Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800
Research Team
Fundamental:
Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical sarabjit@angeltrade.com
Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com
Vaishali Jajoo Automobile vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com
Shailesh Kanani Infrastructure, Real Estate shailesh.kanani@angeltrade.com
Anand Shah FMCG , Media anand.shah@angeltrade.com
Deepak Pareek Oil & Gas deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com
Puneet Bambha Capital Goods, Engineering puneet.bambha@angeltrade.com
Sushant Dalmia Pharmaceutical sushant.dalmia@angeltrade.com
Rupesh Sankhe Cement, Power rupeshd.sankhe@angeltrade.com
Param Desai Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping paramv.desai@angeltrade.com
Sageraj Bariya Fertiliser, Mid-cap sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com
Viraj Nadkarni Retail, Hotels, Mid-cap virajm.nadkarni@angeltrade.com
Paresh Jain Metals & Mining pareshn.jain@angeltrade.com
Amit Rane Banking amitn.rane@angeltrade.com
Rahul Jain IT rahul.j@angeltrade.com
Jai Sharda Mid-cap jai.sharda@angeltrade.com
Sharan Lillaney Mid-cap sharanb.lillaney@angeltrade.com
Amit Vora Research Associate (Oil & Gas) amit.vora@angeltrade.com
V Srinivasan Research Associate (Cement, Power) v.srinivasan@angeltrade.com
Aniruddha Mate Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) aniruddha.mate@angeltrade.com
Mihir Salot Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping) mihirr.salot@angeltrade.com
Chitrangda Kapur Research Associate (FMCG, Media) chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com
Vibha Salvi Research Associate (IT, Telecom) vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com
Pooja Jain Research Associate (Metals & Mining) pooja.j@angeltrade.com
Technicals:
Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst shardul.kulkarni@angeltrade.com
Mileen Vasudeo Technical Analyst vasudeo.kamalakant@angeltrade.com
Derivatives:
Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives siddarth.bhamre@angeltrade.com
Jaya Agarwal Derivative Analyst jaya.agarwal@angeltrade.com
Sandeep Patil Jr. Derivative Analyst patil.sandeep@angeltrade.com
Institutional Sales Team:
Mayuresh Joshi VP - Institutional Sales mayuresh.joshi@angeltrade.com
Abhimanyu Sofat AVP - Institutional Sales abhimanyu.sofat@angeltrade.com
Nitesh Jalan Sr. Manager niteshk.jalan@angeltrade.com
Pranav Modi Sr. Manager pranavs.modi@angeltrade.com
Sandeep Jangir Sr. Manager sandeepp.jangir@angeltrade.com
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Jay Harsora Sr. Dealer jayr.harsora@angeltrade.com
Meenakshi Chavan Dealer meenakshis.chavan@angeltrade.com
Gaurang Tisani Dealer gaurangp.tisani@angeltrade.com
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