Comparison Study of Fan Behavior: Blackhawks vs. Bulls
By Tom Sullivan
Intro
The thesis of my study is to determine which Chicago team, the Blackhawks of the NHL or the
Bulls of the NBA, has better fan attendance. My simple hypothesis is that the Bulls have a stronger, and
more loyal fan following than their “Madhouse on Madison” counterpart; the Chicago Blackhawks. This
hypothesis seems to be very subjective, so to make a valid comparison I will focus on the attendance
figures over the past 20 years.
Purpose of Study
Before getting into the process and results of my study, I would first like to state my reasoning
and motivation for this somewhat trivial research. Over the past two years, it has come to my attention
that there has been an influx of “bandwagon” and “fair-weather” fans flocking to both of these recently
surging organizations. I find it somewhat annoying to see and hear so many people talk about how
much they love teams that they knew nothing about when “their teams” weren’t in the championship
hunt of their respective leagues. I’m not unreasonable however, I understand that it is fun for people
who aren’t avid sports fans to get involved and root for their hometown team. Plus, it’s great for both
the city and the team to have the surplus of fans during a playoff run. Not to mention that the Bulls and
Blackhawks probably don’t mind all the extra profit it creates. From my personal observance, it seems
like the Blackhawks have experienced this “bandwagon” effect to a much higher degree due to their
recent Stanley Cup victory. Although I find it interesting that a majority of “hawks” fans don’t really
know much about the team when they weren’t winning so many games and also seem to lack an overall
knowledge about the NHL. Obviously the Bulls probably have just as many “fair-weather” fans that
probably couldn’t name anyone on the team besides the NBA MVP Derrick Rose. To get to the bottom
of this fan phenomenon, I decided to conduct some secondary research and statistical analysis.
Validity
There are obviously many concerns regarding the validity of this study. There are a plethora of
uncontrollable factors that can influence event attendance that are not taken into account. However, I
feel that this study is quite valid for the following reasons. Both teams play in the same market
(Chicago) so problems such as different market sizes do not affect the outcome. They both play in the
same exact venue (United Center) so the seating is almost identical (there is a slight difference because
of the size of the ice/court configuration differences, but it is not significant enough to worry about).
Both the NBA and NHL seasons are played at the same time, so seasonal factors do not play a role. Both
leagues also have the same season length (82 games). These factors give the study a great amount of
control and make it feasible to compare such data.
Data collection and Analysis
I began by gathering secondary data about the Blackhawks and Bulls from various websites
(Found in appendix). I collected data on average season attendance and winning percentage for each
team since the 1989-1990 seasons. I then simply put together some graphs and compared figures on
attendance per year for both teams (Figure 1). Since 1989, the Bulls have had higher average
attendance almost every year, except for the 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 seasons. This can easily be
explained by the fact that a pretty good player by the name of MJ won a few championships for the Bulls
throughout the 90s. Having who some consider the greatest player in the history of the game might
give you a slight advantage, so no surprise there. What is surprising is that after the 1998 Bulls
championship, they were terrible from 1999-2004 and won as few as 15 games in a season. As can be
seen in Figure 1, this didn’t have a drastic effect on attendance, while the Blackhawks on the other hand
witnessed attendance fall below 15,000 per year, something the Bulls haven’t experienced in the last 20
years.
The next factor to consider is team winning percentage. How would it be fair to compare a
winning team’s attendance to a losing team’s attendance? The team winning percentage clearly plays a
huge role in the amount of fans that come to the games. Figures 2A and 2B show the trend in win
percentage for both teams. It is clear that both teams have had their ups and downs, but by observation
the Bulls seemed to have experienced a much more drastic drop in win percentage, which makes it hard
to sell tickets on a consistent basis. The Blackhawks also experienced a lot of variability, but never had a
season winning percentage below .300.
The question that this raises is how does the fan behavior change with the changes in win
percentage? This is where figures 3A and 3B come in to play. I calculated the season-to-season change
in win percentage as well as change in attendance (both in percentages) and graphed the results. From
these figures some very interesting observations can be made. The Bulls’ attendance has far less
variability than the Blackhawks’ attendance. This supports my argument by showing that Blackhawk fan
support depends on the teams winning percentage whereas the Bulls have a loyal fan base that exhibits
greater support throughout down years. It is also important to point out the huge spike in attendance in
the 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 seasons for the Blackhawks. Attendance jumped about 32% each of
these years as the Blackhawks became an above .500 team again. So it seems like when the wins come,
the fans come.
Conclusion
The results of my study support my hypothesis that the Chicago Bulls have a much more loyal
fan base than the Chicago Blackhawks and that the Blackhawks have much more fair weather fans than
the Bulls.
Please also keep in mind that I am not trying to pit Bulls and Blackhawks fans against each other
the way that Sox and Cubs fans go at it for days about how much their beloved team is better than the
other. Both organizations have great fan followings that are some of the best in sports. At the end of
the day, we’re all Chicago fans, just a majority of you out there like to chime in and join the fun when
the teams happen to be playing well. But to each his own.
Also keep in mind that if you are in fact one of the fans that have been showing up to games and
having support when your team is absolutely terrible then this study does not apply to you. Kudos to
you for being an outstanding sports fan.
I’m sure some Blackhawks fans may not be too happy, but unfortunately however many times
you may want to crosscheck me against the boards, the facts don’t lie. Bulls fans > Blackhawks fans. And
for those of you that are huge fans of both, I guess you come out a winner either way.
Appendix
*http://www.andrewsstarspage.com/index.php/site/comments/nhl_average_attendance_since_1989_
90/118-2008-09
*http://www.databasebasketball.com/teams/teamatt.htm?tm=chi&lg=n
1- Attendance per year (1989-2010)
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
Blackhawks
10,000
Bulls
5,000
0
2004-2005
1989-90
2000-01
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2A-Bulls-Win %
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
Series1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1996-97
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2B-Blackhawks Win %
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
Series1
0.2
0.1
0
2004-2005
1996-97
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
3B-Blackhawks change in attendance/win %
40
30
20
10 Change in attendance
0 Change in Win %
2004-2005
2001-02
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2002-03
2003-04
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
-10
-20
-30
3A-Bulls Change in attendance/win %
120.00
100.00
80.00
Change in attendance
60.00
40.00
Change in Win %
20.00
0.00
-20.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
-40.00
-60.00
-80.00