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					                                       Economics

Introduction

Analyzing the current economic position of Laramie County is a critical step to ascertain a likely
trajectory for the county in coming months and years. How, exactly, the county is allocating resources
today will both prohibit some decisions and permit others in future periods. Consequently, those
parties with an interest in future status must first review current practices, as partially uncovered in this
chapter, to ensure the latter will permit the former.

Uncovering ‘gaps’ in the economic domain of Laramie County in the fashion of other chapters within this
report is a complicated procedure for a few reasons. First, the other domains have a much narrower
scope than an economic analysis allows: most focus primarily on specific services offered within Laramie
County, whether these are Healthcare services, Legal Advocacy services or others. These services, in
turn, may be compared and contrasted against national recommendations or state evidence-based
strategies. The general field of economics is more of a supervening category over the other domains,
one that gauges macro-level progress as these domains collectively work to raise the standard of living
in Laramie County, making similar comparisons somewhat problematic.1 This uncovers the second
difficulty: given the inclusion of such a meta-category within this study, caution must be exercised to
avoid redundancy.

These two issues will define the scope of study for the Economics domain. Aspects of a proper
economic analysis that are addressed elsewhere in this report will be avoided in this section (e.g., civil
infrastructure, crisis services, social assistance). The bulk of analysis will address economic indicators for
Laramie County, comparing these against Wyoming and U.S. trends where applicable.




     1
       Properly defined, Economics studies scarcity: given limited resources, Economics evaluates and measures the
choices people make in this environment [1]. In practice, Economics tends towards the measure of financial
sufficiency and sustainability within a given population or region. The International Monetary Fund, catering to
those who consider Economics a broader measure of ‘standard of living’ and thus requiring more than financial
analysis, utilizes a Human Development Index (HDI). The HDI applies metrics to general literacy, education
attainment, life expectancy as well as financial evaluations. Due to the coverage provided by other domains, this
section of the report will focus solely on the financial metrics available to Laramie County.

Laramie County GAPS Analysis                         ES-1/Page                                      September 2008
Analysis and Recommendations

There are several positive aspects of Laramie County’s economy:

-      Wage and Salary jobs are growing
-      Average Wages per job are steadily climbing
-      New business growth is increasing, particularly since 2003
-      GDP for the county has been trending upward
-      Unemployment has been slowly receding since 2003.

Some cause for concern exists, however.

Income Distribution

Laramie County is having difficulty providing remedy to those people who earn less than the Self‐
Sufficiency Wage. GDP and GDP per Capita both have been rising for the county, indicating that
production growth is outpacing population growth. Additionally, Total Wage and Salary jobs and Wage
and Salary Jobs per Capita both have been increasing steadily, indicating total job creation is advancing
faster than population growth. Wage and Salary payrolls are receiving increasingly higher shares of gross
income (a figure that includes, wages, interest, dividends, rent, proprietors’ income and transfer
receipts); Average Wages per Job has been advancing, aggressively so since 2005, indicating that actual
payrolls have been increasing in the job market. In short, Laramie County is offering more jobs and
higher pay, and its residents are continuing to purchase and consume – all fuel for the continuing
growth of the economy.

Looking at the actual distribution of income, however, the landscape changes a bit. During the 16 year
period, 1990‐2006, four (4) income brackets added significant numbers of households (not including
those that posted no gains between 2000 and 2006): $10,000 ‐ $14,999, $15,000 ‐ $24,999, $50,000 ‐
$74,999 and $100,000 to $149,999. Adjusting the income categories to match inflationary shifts, these
brackets posted the following changes during this period:

1) $10,000 ‐ $14,999: added 637 households
2) $15,000 ‐ $24,999: added 799 households
3) $50,000 ‐ $74,999: added 2049 households
4) $100,000 ‐ $149,999: added 553 households

It is commendable that, of the changes above, more than 50% are in the $50,000 ‐ $74,999 category.
There is only one type of family for whom $50,000 would not be sufficient to meet basic needs in
Laramie County as of 2006.2 What appears to be problematic, however, is the increase of households
receiving less than sufficient wages. For those households earning less than $24,999 annually, there are
only two that would meet the Self‐Sufficiency Standard with this income: single parents with two
children or less and two parents either living alone or with one teenager. By way of comparison, the
Self‐Sufficiency Wage for a two‐parent household in Laramie County with one school‐aged child has
been calculated to be $26,984.00 per year [2].


2
    Two adults and three infants [2].


Laramie County GAPS Analysis                       ES-2/Page                                September 2008
This phenomenon may be caused by the types of jobs gaining strength in Laramie County. Public
Administration accounts for 13% of Laramie County’s GDP (8% higher than U.S.), while Manufacturing
comprises only 5% (9% lower than U.S.). Management positions and their contribution to GDP in
Laramie County throughout 2001‐2005 decreased by over 20%, and Chemical and/or Miscellaneous
Manufacturing contributions to GDP decreased by over 50%.

Inflow, Outflow

Related to the income distribution issue is the type of workforce available in Laramie County. The gross
income of non‐Laramie County residents who have taken Laramie County jobs (outflow) is rapidly
accelerating. This is significant because, in this case, the money earned in Laramie County will likely be
spent elsewhere, thus contributing to some other region’s economic growth. What is particularly curious
about this scenario is that the gross income of Laramie County residents taking jobs in other counties
(inflow) is also increasing, although not as rapidly. This could indicate an incongruence with the types of
jobs offered in Laramie County and the types of workers available within the county. For example, if the
bulk of jobs offered in a particular region require an advanced degree, where most residents of this
region have only completed high school, these residents will have to travel elsewhere to find gainful
employment. The region in question, as a consequence, will need to pull its labor force from other
sources. This scenario or its inverse could explain the growing number of non‐resident workers in
Laramie County. Although not within the scope of this study, it is highly recommended that some
analysis be performed evaluating the specific characteristics both of the Laramie County labor force and
the types of jobs offered in the county.

Specialization

Industrial diversification is a key component for a stable economy. Economies that are highly specialized
in particular areas (viz., less diverse) will be more vulnerable to recession if those particular areas
weaken. Most economists look to the industrial diversification of the U.S. as a model for regional
economies. If a given region has distributed sources of GDP identically to the U.S., that is, if it is as
industrially diverse as the U.S., that region is assigned a score of 0. As the region becomes less diverse,
the score climbs upward. Laramie County has a score of 175 [3].

Manufacturing, Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Wholesale Trade and Educational Services
all, by comparison to the U.S., are under‐utilized in Laramie County. Public Administration, on the other
hand, is overly relied upon by the county: almost 2.5 times the national allocation (13% and 5%,
respectively). Laramie County could benefit by increased diversification and efforts to this end could
simultaneously provide some solution to the labor force issues detailed above.3 It should be noted that
the county is already making progress in this regard: from 2001‐2005, Educational Services increased in
production by a full 100%.




3
  While this is not currently supported by evidence, it seems a warranted conclusion that any broadening of
job alternatives within Laramie County will increase the likelihood of utilizing a larger cross‐section of the resident
labor force.

Laramie County GAPS Analysis                           ES-3/Page                                          September 2008
Unemployment

Laramie County’s unemployment rate has been trending down since 2003. Historically, the county has
had a difficult time reducing the actual number of unemployed persons. For example, in 1991, the U.S.
Census Bureau registered 1,458 unemployed people in Laramie County to yield an unemployment rate
of 4% annually. In 2006, the Census estimates 1,655 unemployed people in the county, also yielding an
unemployment rate of 4%.4 While the unemployment rate is a significant indicator of Laramie County’s
ability to provide jobs to a growing population, it is interesting that the actual number of unemployed
people in the county has remained largely unchanged over the past decade. Compare this to Wyoming
as a whole: in 1991, the Census counted 11,932 unemployed people statewide, with an unemployment
rate of 5.1%. In 2006, there were 9,224 unemployed people (a 23% reduction from 1991), and the
unemployment rate dropped to 3.3%. This illustrates a good benchmark for Laramie County, where both
the number of unemployed people and the unemployment rates are reduced. This may be yet another
issue that could be remedied by further industrial diversification. The broader the spectrum of available
jobs, the more likely it becomes that all human resources are utilized within the county




4
    2007 data reduces both figures slightly: 1,600 unemployed people with an unemployment rate of 3.8%.


Laramie County GAPS Analysis                         ES-4/Page                                      September 2008
Population




  87000               Laramie                                                                                 Population % Change
  86000
                      County
  85000




                                                                                              85783
                     Population                                                                                                           WY %




                                                                                      85388
                                                                             85281
  84000                                                                                                  2005
                                                                                                                                          Change




                                                                     84338
  83000
                                                                                                         2003

                                                             83170
  82000                                              82396
  81000                                                                                                                                   U.S. %
                                             81751


                                                                                                         2001
  80000                                                                                                                                   Change
                                     81009
                             80522
                     80328
             80186




  79000                                                                                                  1999
  78000                                                                                                                                   Laramie
  77000                                                                                                  1997
                                                                                                                                          County %
                                                                                                      -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00%            Change



                                                                                                       Data Source: U.S. Department of Commerce,
                                                                                                       Bureau of Economic Analysis – REIS table CA 30




The U.S. Census Bureau releases detailed population figures every ten (10) years, and provides
population estimates through the American Community Survey for every year in between [4]. Laramie
County realized population growth at increasing rates from 1996-2003, with the growth tapering from
2004-2006. The fastest growth occurred in 2003 and 2004 with 1.4% and 1.12% growth rates,
respectively. Within these two years, Laramie County outpaced both U.S. and Wyoming growth rates.
In every other year, Laramie County has lagged U.S. growth rates. Laramie County has outpaced
Wyoming population growth rates since 1999, until 2005 and 2006 where Wyoming has nearly tripled
Laramie County’s growth rate.




Laramie County GAPS Analysis                                                         ES-5/Page                                           September 2008
Wage and Salary Jobs




            Laramie County Wage and Salary Jobs                                                             Wage and Salary Job % Change




                                                                                               48688
                                                                                       47757
                                                                               47052
                                                                       46480
                                                                                                             2005




                                                               45381
   50000

                                               44289
                                                       44056
   48000                                                                                                                                 Wyoming
                                       43068
                                                                                                             2003
                               42095
                       41444




   46000
               41312




   44000                                                                                                     2001                        U.S.
   42000
   40000                                                                                                     1999
   38000                                                                                                                                 Laramie
   36000                                                                                                     1997                        County
               1996
                       1997
                               1998
                                       1999
                                               2000
                                                       2001
                                                               2002
                                                                       2003
                                                                               2004
                                                                                       2005
                                                                                               2006
                                                                                                       -5.00%     0.00%     5.00%



                                                                                                       Data Source: U.S. Department of Commerce,
                                                                                                       Bureau of Economic Analysis – REIS table CA 30

Evaluating the growth of Wage and Salary jobs (WS) within Laramie County is significant because these
comprise the bulk of all income sources within the county, over 61% in 2006. Laramie County WS jobs
have increased over the past 10 years according to BEA data [5]. From 1997-2000, WS jobs sharply
increased followed by a slight decrease in 2001. Job growth progressed most rapidly in 2002; a 3.01%
increase year over year. The years 2004-2006 were some of the slowest in job growth, none of which
posted changes above 2%. There is a slight correlation between percentage change in job availability
                                                                                          and population change.
          Laramie County Gross Income Distribution*                                       The year 2000 was a
                                                                                          peak for job additions in
                                           2006                                           Laramie County, with a
                                                                                          significant      slowdown
               $291,929.00          $451,553.00                                           occurring      in    2001;
                                                                                          population          growth
                                                                 Personal current
                                                                                          decelerated as well.
                                                                 transfer receipts
                                            $688,471.00                                   Perhaps even more
                                                                 Dividends, interest, and significant is the period
       $2,273,656.00                                             rent                     2003-2004, where job
                                                                 Wage, Salary and         growth slowed to a pace
                                                                 Supplements**            of 1.23%.       Population
                                                                 Proprietors' income      growth responded in
                                                                                          kind, nearly halting at
                                        *Income before Taxes and Residence Adjustment     only .13% growth in
    **Supplements include employer contributions towards pensions, taxes and insurance
                                                                                          2005, exceeding the prior
                                                                                          low of .18% in 1997.

 Data Source: U.S. Department of Commerce,
 Bureau of Economic Analysis – REIS table CA 04


Laramie County GAPS Analysis                                                           ES-6/Page                                          September 2008
Wage and Salary, Farm Proprietors, Nonfarm Proprietors per Capita



  0.0076                                                                                   0.135
                                                                                                                  Laramie County
                                                                                            0.13
  0.0074                                                                                                             Nonfarm
                                                                                           0.125
                                                                                                                  Proprietors per
  0.0072                                                                                    0.12                      Capita
                                                                                           0.115
    0.007        Laramie County                                                             0.11
  0.0068       Farm Proprietors per                                                        0.105
                     Capita
                                                                                              0.1
  0.0066




                                                                                                    1996
                                                                                                           1997
                                                                                                                  1998
                                                                                                                         1999
                                                                                                                                2000
                                                                                                                                       2001
                                                                                                                                              2002
                                                                                                                                                     2003
                                                                                                                                                            2004
                                                                                                                                                                   2005
                                                                                                                                                                          2006
              1996
                     1997
                            1998
                                   1999
                                          2000
                                                 2001
                                                        2002
                                                               2003
                                                                      2004
                                                                             2005
                                                                                    2006

  0.58                                                          Proprietors complete the scope of
  0.57               Laramie County                             possible employment avenues. WS Jobs
  0.56        Wage and Salary Jobs per Capita                   per Capita and Proprietors per Capita
  0.55                                                          are reliable measures of how well the
  0.54
                                                                job market is keeping pace with
  0.53
  0.52
                                                                population changes.       An increasing
  0.51                                                          figure in either measure indicates that
   0.5                                                          more employment opportunities per
  0.49                                                          person are being created within Laramie
  0.48                                                          County. Decreasing figures indicate that
                                                                the population is growing faster than the
                                                                employment market can provide for.
                                                                Farm Proprietors per Capita shows
                                                   5
significant decreases for the period 1996-2006, while Non-Farm Proprietors per Capita show equally
significant increases, particularly during the period 2003-2006. Wage and Salary Jobs per Capita have
increased in every year except the period 2000-2001. This downturn corroborates the .53% loss in jobs
between 2000 and 2001, with a .94% population gain in the same period. Although the number of WS
jobs in Laramie County has been higher during all reviewed years, nonfarm proprietors per capita have
been growing at a much faster rate than WS jobs per capita, particularly during the period 2003-2006.

                                                                                                     Data Source: U.S. Department of Commerce,
                                                                                                     Bureau of Economic Analysis – REIS table CA 30




     5
        This is a curious statistic, particularly because historically Wyoming has been so heavily leveraged in agriculture. According
to Philiph Ellis, President of Wyoming Stock Growers Association, Wyoming ranks eighth nationally in total land in farms and
ranches and first in average size of farms and ranches [6].

Laramie County GAPS Analysis                                                        ES-7/Page                                                               September 2008
Wage and Salary Jobs, Population Pacing




                                  Job and Population Pacing
    3.50%
    3.00%
    2.50%
    2.00%
                                                                             % Change in Laramie County
    1.50%                                                                    WS Jobs
    1.00%                                                                    % Change in Population
    0.50%
    0.00%
              1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
   -0.50%
   -1.00%


                                                              Data Source: U.S. Department of Commerce,
                                                              Bureau of Economic Analysis – REIS table CA 30



Comparing percentage change in population growth against percentage change in WS jobs is significant,
as this indicator will gauge Laramie County’s ability to combat unemployment in their largest
employment sector. While this data is also reflected in Jobs per Capita figures, this graph illustrates
some underlying causes for fluctuations in Jobs per Capita data. Job growth trending more positive than
population growth is an indication of the potential for decreasing unemployment, while job growth
trending more negative than population growth is an indicator of the possible increasing
unemployment. The strongest period of growth within this category occurred from 1997-1999, where
WS jobs increased at rates of .32%, 1.57% and 2.31% in each respective year. During the same years,
the population increased at rates of .18%, .24% and .60%, respectively. Consequently, the
unemployment rate in Laramie County in 1999 (3.5%) was the lowest in almost two (2) decades. As WS
job growth tapered in 2000 against a continually growing population, the unemployment rate gradually
increased through 2005, peaking at 4.6% in 2003. Highlighted by yellow bars in the graph below, the
period 2002-2003 shows the negative indicators partially causing this phenomenon: WS job growth
trended down from 3.01% to 2.42%, while population growth trended upwards from .94% to 1.4%.




Laramie County GAPS Analysis                   ES-8/Page                                       September 2008
Unemployment


                                                                     Unemployment Rate*
             8
             7
             6
             5
   Percent




                                                                                                                                                           Laramie County
             4
             3                                                                                                                                             Wyoming

             2                                                                                                                                             U.S.
             1
             0
                                                    1995
                 1990
                        1991
                               1992
                                      1993
                                             1994


                                                           1996
                                                                  1997
                                                                         1998
                                                                                1999
                                                                                       2000
                                                                                              2001
                                                                                                     2002
                                                                                                            2003
                                                                                                                   2004
                                                                                                                          2005
                                                                                                                                 2006
                                                                                                                                        2007
                                                                                                                                               2008
                                                                                                                                                      *not seasonally adjusted



Laramie County unemployment rates have been gradually falling since 2004, although they have been
consistently higher than Wyoming’s since 2001 according to BLS data [7]. Statewide, unemployment
rates continue to fall at an increasing rate. The graph below illustrates this phenomenon. The
unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed people by the total labor force
(16 years and older, not in military or some form of institutionalized care). Although Laramie County has
realized a reduction in the unemployment rate over the past five (5) years, the actual number of
unemployed people within the county has remained relatively unchanged since 1990. Wyoming, on the
other hand, has seen a significant reduction in the amount of unemployed people, from just over 12,000
in 1990 to just over 8,000 in 2008 – a 25% decrease in total unemployed persons.



                                                           Number of Unemployed Persons
 15000                                                                                                                                           Laramie County

 10000                                                                                                                                           Wyoming

   5000
                                                                                                                                                 3 per. Mov. Avg. (Laramie
                                                                                                                                                 County)
             0
                                                                                                                                                 3 per. Mov. Avg. (Wyoming)
                 1990




                                                                                2000
                 1991
                 1992
                 1993
                 1994
                 1995
                 1996
                 1997
                 1998
                 1999


                                                                                2001
                                                                                2002
                                                                                2003
                                                                                2004
                                                                                2005
                                                                                2006
                                                                                2007




                                                                                                                             Data Source: U.S. Department of Labor,
                                                                                                                             Bureau of Labor Statistics – Series ID:
                                                                                                                             LAUPA56010003,LAUPA56010004,LAUPA56
                                                                                                                             010005,LAUPA56010006,LAUST56000003,
                                                                                                                             LAUST56000004,LAUST56000005,LAUST560
                                                                                                                             00006, LNS14000000


Laramie County GAPS Analysis                                                              ES-9/Page                                                                September 2008
Job Creation and Income Distribution


                                3.00%
    U.S., Wyoming and           2.50%
    Laramie County              2.00%
    Changes in Total            1.50%
    Employment                  1.00%
                                0.50%
                                0.00%
                               -0.50%
                               -1.00%
                               -1.50%
                                          1999     2000     2001       2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007
            Laramie County Annual
                                         1.80% -0.47% -0.69% 1.66% 1.36% -0.47% 0.64% 0.87% 1.19%
            Change in Employment
           U.S. Annual Change in
                                         2.30% 2.23% -0.19% -1.08% -0.34% 1.16% 1.77% 1.72%
                Employment
            Wyoming Annual Change in
                                     1.65% 1.93% 1.10% -0.40% 0.40% 1.12% 1.72% 2.58% 1.93%
                 Employment



  Data Source: U.S. Department of Labor,
  Bureau of Labor Statistics – Series ID:
  LAUPA56010003,LAUPA56010004,LAUPA56
  010005,LAUPA56010006                    Laramie County job growth gradually increased from 2005-
                                          2007, although it continues to lag U.S. and Wyoming rates.
Through 2007, Wyoming and U.S. job creation rates were decreasing, while Laramie County continued
to trend upwards. This is promising for Laramie County, perhaps indicating some future confluence with
U.S. and Wyoming job creation rates.


                 Laramie County Gross Income Distribution*
  $2,500,000.00
                                                                                       Laramie       County      WS
                                                              Personal current
  $2,000,000.00                                               transfer receipts
                                                                                       employees       are   gaining
                                                                                       increasing shares of Total
  $1,500,000.00                                               Dividends, interest,     Personal Income (TPI). This
                                                              and rent
  $1,000,000.00                                                                        trend started in 1998 and
                                                              Wage, Salary and         continues today.       Every
    $500,000.00                                               Supplements**            category of income has
            $0.00                                             Proprietors' income      increased, but Wages and
                                                      *Income before Taxes and
                                                                                       Salaries have increased at
                                                      Residence Adjustment             faster rates than other
                                                                                       categories since 2002

  Data Source: U.S. Department of Commerce,
  Bureau of Economic Analysis – REIS table CA 04

Laramie County GAPS Analysis                              ES-10/Page                                      September 2008
Average Wage per Job, Actual Wage Distribution




  38000
              Average Wage per Job                             2006                        % Change
  36000
                                                               2005
  34000                                                        2004
  32000                                                        2003
                                                               2002                           Laramie
  30000                                            Wyoming                                    County
                                                               2001
  28000
                                                   Laramie     2000                           Wyoming
  26000                                            County
                                                               1999
  24000
                                                               1998
  22000                                                        1997
             1998
             1996
             1997

             1999
             2000
             2001
             2002
             2003
             2004
             2005
             2006




                                                                  0.00%     5.00%    10.00%



 Data Source: U.S. Department of Commerce,
 Bureau of Economic Analysis – REIS table CA 34



The Bureau of Economic Analysis uses Average Wage per Job to measure the total Wage and Salary
disbursements against the total number of Wage and Salary jobs within a given region. Average wages
have trended upwards for both Laramie County and Wyoming since 1996. Wyoming brought greater
rates of percentage increase than Laramie County during 2003-2006, although Laramie County outpaced
Wyoming from 2001-2002.

While reviewing average wages per job, it is significant to note that these are, in fact, averages. The
actual data behind the averages indicates that total wages have increased at a faster rate than total WS
jobs. Which people in particular have seen an actual increase in their wages during this timeframe? To
answer this question, we turn to data provided by the U.S. Census Bureau.




Laramie County GAPS Analysis                      ES-11/Page                                  September 2008
Average Wage per Job, Actual Wage Distribution




         9000
                                                                                        Laramie County Number of
         8000
                                                                                        Households and Income Share
         7000
         6000
                                                                                        Adjusted for Inflation
         5000
         4000
         3000                                                                                  1990 Income (2006 Dollars)
         2000                                                                                  2000 Income (2006 Dollars)
         1000
            0                                                                                  2006 Income (2006 Dollars)




                                                                                 Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American
                                                                                 FactFinder Database – 2006 American
                                                                                 Community Survey. Tables DP4, DP3, 1990
                                                                                 Census, 2000 Census.



The U.S. Census Bureau provides detailed economic profiles across a large range of categories for
various regions. This report will highlight findings from the Household profile during 1990-2006.6 Years
1990 and 2000 have been adjusted upwards to reflect 2006 dollars, so that comparisons of actual buying
power can be drawn between years. During this period, four (4) income categories held significant gains
through 2006 (circled in graph): $10,000 - $14,999, $15,000 - $24,999, $50,000 - $74,999 and $100,000
to $149,999. Using the May, 2006 CPI (202.5) provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Self-
Sufficiency Wage for Laramie County for a two-parent household with one school-aged child has been
calculated to be $26,984.00 per year [2]. It is of some concern that with all of the tremendous wage
growth in Laramie County, increasing numbers of households are earning less than this benchmark while
simultaneously households earning more than $100,000 per year are increasing.7


      6
        The data from 2006 American Community Survey contains some estimation. A household, as defined by the U.S. Census
Bureau, “consists of all the people who occupy a housing unit. A house, an apartment or other group of rooms, or a single room, is
regarded as a housing unit when it is occupied or intended for occupancy as separate living quarters; that is, when the occupants do
not live and eat with any other persons in the structure and there is direct access from the outside or through a common hall. A
household includes the related family members and all the unrelated people, if any, such as lodgers, foster children, wards, or
employees who share the housing unit. A person living alone in a housing unit, or a group of unrelated people sharing a housing unit
such as partners or roomers, is also counted as a household. The count of households excludes group quarters. There are two
major categories of households, "family" and "nonfamily".”
     7
       It is quite obvious that not every reporting household contains two adults and one school-aged child. It should be noted,
however, that of all possible household/family structures only two would meet the Self-Sufficiency Standard with the given income:
single parents with two children or less and two parents either living alone or with one teenager.

Laramie County GAPS Analysis                                ES-12/Page                                               September 2008
Earnings Inflow/Outflow



 $120,000.00
                      Laramie County Net
 $100,000.00
                      Earnings Inflow/Outflow
   $80,000.00

   $60,000.00
                                                                                                Net Earnings Inflow
   $40,000.00                                                                                   Net Earnings Outflow

   $20,000.00

         $0.00

                                                                                         2006
                   1996
                          1997
                                 1998
                                        1999
                                               2000
                                                      2001
                                                             2002
                                                                    2003
                                                                           2004
                                                                                  2005




  Data Source: U.S. Department of Commerce,
  Bureau of Economic Analysis – REIS table CA 30



The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases Total Personal Income (TPI) figures for Laramie County
annually. This figure includes the sum total of all earnings by those people working for Laramie County
corporations, dubbed “Earnings by Place of Work”. While evaluating a particular region’s economic
progress, it is important to account for possible expenditures within that region; the more money spent
within a region, the higher the potential for GDP increase. One significant factor in evaluating possible
expenditures is the Net Residence Adjustment provided by the BEA. Roughly, this indicator measures
the total income of Laramie County residents by adding the income Laramie County residents receive
from non-Laramie County corporations and subtracting the income non-Laramie County residents
receive from Laramie County corporations. If the final figure is negative, this indicates that the income
of non-residents working in Laramie County (Net Earnings Outflow) exceeds that of Laramie County
residents working for non-Laramie County corporations (Net Earnings Inflow). In short, there is more
money flowing out of the county than in, possibly decreasing potential GDP growth. If the final figure is
positive, then the income of Laramie County residents working for non-Laramie County corporations
(Net Earnings Inflow) is greater than that of non-Laramie County residents working for Laramie County
corporations (Net Earnings Outflow), which would possibly indicate higher potential GDP growth.




Laramie County GAPS Analysis                                                       ES-13/Page                          September 2008
Earnings Inflow/Outflow




                               Net Residence Adjustment
                   1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
         $0.00

   -$5,000.00

  -$10,000.00                                                               Net Residence
                                                                            Adjustment
  -$15,000.00

  -$20,000.00

  -$25,000.00


  Data Source: U.S. Department of Commerce,
  Bureau of Economic Analysis – REIS table CA 30



While the Net Residence Adjustment for Laramie County has been negative since 1996, it has become
increasingly more so since 2001. While the Net Earnings Inflow has been steadily increasing, Net
Earnings Outflow has been rapidly accelerating, particularly from 2004-2006. This is significant, as the
trend is beginning to favor Net Earnings Outflow (evidenced by the sharply declining Net Residence
Adjustment), which means increasing numbers of non-Laramie County residents are taking Laramie
County jobs and possible Laramie County expenditures with them. While Laramie County corporations
will be examined in the GDP section, some analysis should be performed to evaluate the Laramie County
workforce in contrast with neighboring counties, so as to determine why increasing numbers of non-
Laramie County residents are taking Laramie County jobs.




Laramie County GAPS Analysis                          ES-14/Page                            September 2008
GDP and Specialization


                                                                                                                      The Bureau of Economic Analysis
                                                            Cheyenne GDP: Private Industry and                        provides Gross Domestic Product
                                                                Government Contribution                               (GDP) numbers for designated
                                                                                                                      Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA)
                                                     4000
             Total GDP Millions of Nominal Dollars




                                                                                                                      within the nation. Data was not
                                                     3500                                                             released for Laramie County, although
                                                                                                                      Cheyenne City is listed. Cheyenne’s
                                                     3000                               1062
                                                                                 1000                                 GDP steadily increased from 2001-
                                                                          940
                                                     2500           883                                               2005. Private industry in Cheyenne
                                                              796
                                                     2000                                                             held a steady 70% share of all output
                                                                                                Government            from 2001-2005, the remaining 30%
                                                     1500                                                             coming from government sources.
                                                                                                Private
                                                                            2338 2465
                                                     1000    1949 2058 2208                                           Although less popular, using total
                                                                                                                      income to calculate GDP provides a
                                                      500
                                                                                                                      means of comparison for Laramie
                                                        0                                                             County and Wyoming.8 Comparing
                                                             2001 2002 2003 2004 2005                                 percentage increase year over year,
                                                                          Year                                        Wyoming has led Laramie County in all
                                                                                                                      but three (3) years: 1998, 2002 and
                                                                                                                      2003.



                                                        GDP (Income Approach) + Subsidies                                           % Change
     $25,000,000.00
                                                                                                                           2006
                                                                                                                           2005
     $20,000,000.00
                                                                                                                           2004
                                                                                                                           2003
 Thousands




     $15,000,000.00
                                                                                                                           2002                      Wyoming
                                                                                                            Laramie
     $10,000,000.00                                                                                                        2001
                                                                                                            County
                                                                                                            Wyoming        2000                      Laramie
                                                                                                                           1999                      County
         $5,000,000.00
                                                                                                                           1998
                                                        $0.00                                                              1997
                                                                    2006
                                                                    1996
                                                                    1997
                                                                    1998
                                                                    1999
                                                                    2000
                                                                    2001
                                                                    2002
                                                                    2003
                                                                    2004
                                                                    2005




                                                                                                                               0.00%        20.00%



                                                                                                                      Data Source: U.S. Department of
                                                                                                                      Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis



             8
      For lack of data, this graph includes subsidies which normally would be subtracted from a proper income-
calculated GDP dataset.

Laramie County GAPS Analysis                                                                   ES-15/Page                                         September 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   100.00%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                120.00%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            140.00%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             20.00%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      40.00%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   60.00%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                80.00%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.00%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   P: Retail trade                     33.18%
                                                                                                                                                                                                           P: Rail transportation                       34.03%




Laramie County GAPS Analysis
                                                                                                                                                                                                           G: Financial activities                             38.86%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      GDP and Specialization




                               over 62% of Cheyenne’s GDP.
                                                                                                                                                                                           P: Real estate and rental and leasing                                44.66%
                                                                                                                                                                                             P: Health care and social assistance                               44.85%
                                                                                                                                                                                               G: Education and health services                                  46.43%
                                                                                                                                                                                                       G: Leisure and hospitality                                 48.28%
                                                                                                                                                                                            P: Food services and drinking places                                  48.94%
                                                                                                                                                                                                              P: Accommodation                                              62.96%




ES-16/Page
                                                                                                                                                                                      P: Insurance carriers and related activities                                           66.67%
                                                                                                                                                                           G: Information, Communication, and Technology (ICT)                                                           78.57%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          P: Educational services                                                                            100.00%
                                                                                                                                                                                P: Securities, commodity contracts, investments                                                                                           128.57%
                                                                                                                                                                                                        P: Oil and gas extraction                                                                                         129.63%




                                                                                                                                   Data Source: U.S. Department of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Cheyenne
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2001-2005,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Top 14 GDP
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Growth Sources,




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              G = Government




                                                                                                                                   Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              P = Private Sector




                               Oil and Gas Extraction industries realized the largest growth from 2001-2005, followed closely by
                               Securities, Commodity Contracts and Investment industries. Combined, these 14 industries comprise




September 2008
GDP and Specialization




     Bottom 9 Industries by
     GDP Growth
     2001-2005, Cheyenne




                                                                               % Change 2001-2005
                       0.00%
                     -10.00%
                     -20.00%
                     -30.00%
                     -40.00%
                     -50.00%
                     -60.00%
                     -70.00%
                     -80.00%



                                                              Data Source: U.S. Department of
                                                              Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis




Funds, Trusts and Other Financial Vehicles posted the largest losses from 2001-2005, followed by
Chemical Manufacturing, Miscellaneous Manufacturing and Amusement/Gambling/Recreation
Industries. These nine (9) industries comprise 5.36% of Cheyenne’s 2005 GDP.




Laramie County GAPS Analysis                ES-17/Page                                   September 2008
GDP and Specialization




                                                             Source: A SocioEconomic Profile, Laramie County,
                                                             Wyoming. Headwaters Economics, December, 2007.




This graph illustrates the diversity of Laramie County’s economy as compared to the U.S. economy.
Economies that have limited diversity are considered highly specialized and may be subject to harder
economic swings, with possible increased economic vulnerability. Headwaters Economics assigned
Laramie County a specialization score of 175, where an economy with industrial diversification identical
to the U.S. would have a score of 0, and the highest observed score (extremely specialized) is 3441[3].

Laramie County relies on Public Administration over two (2) times as much as the U.S. (13% and 5%,
respectively), and exhibits a significant under-reliance on manufacturing compared to the U.S. (5% and
14% respectively).




Laramie County GAPS Analysis                    ES-18/Page                                       September 2008
Bibliography

1.        Bade, R. and M. Parkin, Foundations of Macroeconomics. 3 ed. 2007: Pearson Addison
          Wesley.
2.        Pearce, D.M., The Impact of Work Supports: The Self‐Sufficiency Standard for Wyoming
          2007. 2007, University of Washington.
3.        Headwaters Economics, A SocioEconomic Profile, Laramie County, Wyoming. 2007,
          Headwaters
          Economics: Bozeman, MT.
4.        U.S. Census Bureau.
5.        Regional Economic Information System (REIS), Bureau of Economic Analysis ‐ U.S.
          Department of Commerce,.
6.        Ellis, P., Business and Industry Perspective and Outlook, in Wyoming Business Alliance
          'Outlook 2005' Forum. 2005: Parkway Plaza, Casper, Wyoming.
7.        Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS), U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Bureau of Labor
          Statistics.
8.        U.S. Census Bureau. [cited; Available from:
          http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DatasetMainPageServlet?_program=ACS&_submen
          uId=datasets_2&_lang=en (click on 'Glossary').




Laramie County GAPS Analysis                 ES-19/Page                              September 2008

				
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