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					  NOAA-EPA’s Expanding
 National Air Quality Forecast
          Capability

                 February 7, 2006



Paula M. Davidson, Nelson Seaman, Jeff McQueen,
  Rohit Mathur, Chet Wayland, Ken Carey


                                                  1
                    Outline
• Background
  and Current
  Capability

• Transitioning
  capabilities to
  operations

• Progress
  toward
  expanded
  capabilities


                              2
          National Air Quality Forecast Capability:
                       Phased Growth
Early Implementations: 1-day forecast
    guidance for ozone
   •    Developed and deployed initially for
        Northeastern US, September 2004
   •    Expanded over Eastern US, Aug 2005                      2005: O3



Near-Term
    •   Convert driving met model from Eta to WRF: Spring 2006
    •   Experimental test of ozone guidance over CONUS: Summer 2006
    •   Deploy Nationwide (AK & HI) by 2009

Longer range (within 10 years):
    •   Develop and test capability to forecast particulate matter concentration
         –   Particulate size < 2.5 microns
    •   Data assimilation for air quality
    •   Extend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hours
    •   Include broader range of significant pollutants
                                                                                   3
           National Air Quality Forecast Capability
             End-to-End Operational Capability
Model Components: Linked numerical
   prediction system
   Operationally integrated on NCEP’s supercomputer
   •      NCEP mesoscale NWP: Eta-12
   •      NOAA/EPA community model for AQ: CMAQ
   Observational Input:
   •      NWS weather observations
   •      EPA emissions inventory
Gridded forecast guidance products
       Delivered to NWS Telecommunications Gateway
       and EPA for users to pull 2x daily
Verification basis                           EPA Monitoring Network


       EPA ground-level
       ozone observations
Customer outreach/feedback
       NCEP mesoscale NWP: Eta-12
       State & Local AQ forecasters coordinated with EPA
                                                                      AQI: Peak Jul 28
       Public and Private Sector AQ constituents

                                                                                         4
   National Air Quality Forecast Capability
         Major Model Components

        NWP Model
                                       Weather
        NAM/Eta-12                    Observations
        NOAA/NWS

   NWP Post-processors
      for AQ Modules

                                      EPA’s National
       AQ Module:                   Emissions Inventory:
  Emissions Preprocessor
                                       EPA/OAQPS
         PREMAQ
NOAA/OAR and EPA/ORD                                       IT /Comms
                                                           NOAA/NWS
            AQ Module:
                                                              and
   Air Quality Reactive Transport
                                                           EPA/OAQPS
              CMAQ
     NOAA/OAR and EPA/ORD
                                                                       5
             Transition to Operations

   Phased Testing
       Research
Does the science work?              Key S &T Tests,
                                    Summer 2005
 Developmental Testing
                                   More advanced
    Does it work with              vertical mixing in
  operational systems?             CMAQ: ACM test


 Experimental Testing              Convective mixing
                                   improved in CMAQ,
Does it meet deployment            Cloud/radiation
  readiness criteria?              impacts, Boundary
                                   conditions (ozone)

                                   Eta-X improves NAM;
Deploy into Operations             Updated emissions
                                   data in CMAQ
                                                         6
   Testing Domains: Summer 2005
Developmental: CONUS “5X”       Experimental: EUS “3x”



                                                                     265
                                                                     grid
                                                                     cells

                                               Northeast
                                                IOC “1x”
                                               “1x” Domain
                                                             259
                                                             grid
                                                             cells


    CONUS “5x” Domain
                                 “3x” Domain
                            EastEUS “3X”

                                   268 grid cells
       442 grid
       cells                                                            7
        Expanding the IOC to EUS:
  Operational Readiness Criteria Summary

Criterion                       Metric           Dates                       Status
Objective Evaluation:           > 90 %           6/1/05 – 8/1/05
Accuracy                                                                           C
Subjective Feedback             Positive on      6/1/05 – 8/1/05
                                balance                                            C
Production Readiness                                                               C
    On-time delivery            > 95 %           6/1/05 – 8/1/05                   C
    Back-up                     In place         6/1/05                            C
    Data retention              In place         6/1/05                            C
    Near-real time              In place         6/1/05
    verification                                                                   C
Final go/no go                                   8/17/05                           C
decision


              Key    Complete      On schedule   At risk           Remedial Action Required
                                                                                              8
             Experimental Testing, EUS in July, 2005:
                Example, Below-Target Accuracy
    Daily maximum, Ozone 8-hr avg
                                                 Monitor/Model          Range

             Monitoring                          Green/ White           < 71 (ppb)
                                                      Avg Full Light Blue 71-84
      vs Experimental Domain: Daily Verification: 8-hrGold/ EUS Domain
          Next-day Prediction
      1.00
                                                 Red/ Dark Blue >84                                                  Experimental Domain: Daily Verification: 8-hr Avg Full EUS Domain   2005
      0.95

      0.90                                                                                               1.00
                                                                           Hit Accuracy
      0.85
                                                                           Target
                                                                                                         0.95
      0.80
     Day 1-Jun   8-Jun    15-Jun   22-Jun   29-Jun   6-Jul   13-Jul   20-Jul        27-Jul
                                                                                                         0.90
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Hit Accuracy
                                                                                                         0.85
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Target
                                                                                                         0.80
                                                                                                             1-Jun                        1-Jul                     1-Aug                       1-Sep




                                                                                             26-Jun 05




• Summer 2005 experimental testing incorporated model upgrades to reduce
overprediction seen in developmental testing (2004)
• Higher temperatures and early hurricanes in 2005 were associated with more variable
(and higher) O3. For comparable O3, prediction accuracy better than 2004
• Cumulative accuracy (June – Aug): 95% -- 9 days below target. Below-target days
exhibit good pattern coverage                                                                                                                                                                                   9
          CONUS 5X Domain Development&Testing
                 July 12 2005 Example: Hurricane Dennis




                                                                                                     Goes-East 200507122215
• Spatial/temporal
   verification promising

• Overprediction of O3 in                                 Developmental Domain: Daily Verification: 8-hr Avg Full 5X Domain


   elevated terrain (Rockies) & deep clouds    1.00
                                               0.90
                                               0.80
• Working on:                                  0.70
                                                                                                                              Hit Accuracy
                                                                                                                              Target

   – linkage with WRF/NMM                      0.60
                                               0.50

   – boundary conditions (lateral, upper)     Day 4-Jun
                                                               11-Jun      18-Jun     25-Jun      2-Jul       9-Jul      16-Jul              23-Jul   30-Jul



   – vertical mixing
                                                                                                                                                               10
    Verification of PBL Depth, Eta Prediction
     July 15 2005: Very Deep over Southern Rockies

           12-h Forecast of Eta PBL Heights vs 0Z Rawinsondes
                               July 15, 2005




                                                         MT
                                                       12/05




NCEP recently added PBL depth and cloud cover to routine
verification package for mesoscale numerical weather prediction
                                                                  11
        Impact of Lateral Ozone Boundary
         Conditions on Predicted Ozone:
               GFS-derived vs Default (static)

          15 July 2005: Predicted O3 Difference, GFS-derived - Static




Static (reduced) values for O3 upper lateral- boundary values
reduce predicted ground-level O3
                                                                        12
            Developmental Testing in 2005
 Aug 12 Example: Improvement with Static LBC
Daily maximum, Ozone 8-hr avg
                           Monitor/Model   Range
     Monitoring            Green/ White    < 71 (ppb)
  vs Next-day Prediction   Gold/ Light Blue 71-84
                           Red/ Dark Blue >84




                                                                  • Static lateral boundary
                                                                    conditions (LBC) replace
                                                                    GFS- based ozone
                                                        12-Aug 05
                                                                  • Overprediction reduced in
                                                                    elevated terrain (Rockies)

                                                             • Still Working on:
                                                                – linkage with WRF/NMM
                                                                – vertical mixing



                                                                                                 13
               Developmental Testing in 2006
                     Current activities
Ozone Predictions
• Improving linkage: CMAQ and
  WRF/NMM                                        Increasing vertical density in CMAQ:
                                                     Test Configurations (P. Lee)
   – Adopting WRF coordinate system for
     tighter coupling                          (a)       Model Top
                                                                        (b)          Model Top
                                                                                                        (c)          Model Top
• Improving vertical mixing                            σ = 0.0530
                                                                              σ = 0.0125                      σ = 0.0124

   – Convective situations                                     σ = 0.9015                  σ = 0.9015         n=55         σ = 0.9043

   – Increasing vertical resolution in CMAQ           n=20                    n=20                            n=50
                                                                                                                           n=15


Particulate matter                                                                                            n=40

• Improving accuracy of tests with
                                                                                                                           n=10
  emissions inventory sources                                  n=5                         n=5
                                                                                                               n=30
• Testing predicted smoke from
  large fires                                         n=10                    n=10                            n=20
                                                      σ = 0.8755              σ = 0.8755                      σ = 0.8945
   – Satellite-based fire location,                            σ = 0.9975               σ = 0.9975                         σ = 0.9978
     verification product: column-integrated         Surface                  Surface                    Surface
     smoke


                                                                                                                                        14
       National Air Quality Forecast Capability
                        Status: February, 2006

Current operational capability:
   ●   Eastern US, ground-level ozone
   ●   Hour-by-hour concentrations, 12km grid resolution, thru
       midnight next-day, updated twice daily
Developmental testing, expanded capabilities:
   ●   CONUS, ozone: Developmental testing underway, focus on WRF
       conversion.
   ●   Improving vertical mixing, resolution, boundary conditions
   ●   Also testing aerosol components needed for particulate matter
       capabilities
        ●   Qualitative smoke capability (HYSPLIT) for CONUS at 12km: USFS
            BlueSky emissions, routine verification from NOAA satellite data.
        ●   Aerosols from emissions inventory (CMAQ) in developmental
            testing over Eastern US. Expanding to CONUS (Summer, 2006?)
                                                                                15
       National Air Quality Forecast Capability
                         Summer Plans, 2006

Forecast Guidance:
   ●   Operational for Eastern US, CMAQ driven by NAM/WRF-NMM
   ●   Experimental Testing: CONUS ozone, smoke forecast tool
   ●   Developmental Testing: CONUS ozone/ tightly coupled to WRF; aerosol
       testing
Focus Group
   ●   State/local AQ forecasters focus on developmental testing with WRF;
       aerosol products.
Forecaster Coordination: AQ and NWS forecasters
   ●   HPC support: web-site “drawer”, daily significant weather for AQ
       outlooks, and on-call participation in AQ forecast coordination
       teleconference
   ●   WFO support: local area weather information/forecasts; on-call
       participation in AQ forecast coordination teleconference


                                                                             16
Sample AQ forecast guidance
   www.weather.gov/aq




 Further information
 www.nws.noaaa.gov/ost/air_quality   17
                            Back Up


• Fact Sheet on AQ Forecasting
• Summary of 2005 Model upgrades
• More detail, 2005 Operational Readiness Criteria:
  Comparison of IOC and Expanded-Domain Predictions
• Example: Further Evaluation Statistics
• Future Science Infusion
• A look ahead




                                                      18
                                                 National Air Quality Forecast
                                                          Capability:
                                             - Improving the Basis for AQ Alerts
                                             - AQ Information for People at Risk




                          Current AQ                                          NWS Operational Capability
                            Alerts                           Current (9/05)                        Next (2008)                   10-Year Vision
Purpose:            Next-day warnings for large cities   State-of-the-science ozone         State-of-the-science ozone        State-of-the-science ozone
                                                         forecast guidance                  forecast guidance                 and particulate matter
Limit adverse
effects from poor                                                                                                             forecast guidance
AQ, by providing:
Products for        Daily AQ alerts; predicted           Hour-by-hour predictions of        Hour-by-hour predictions of       Hour-by-hour predictions of
Public              interpretive AQ Index category       air pollutant concentrations in    air pollutant concentrations in   air pollutant concentrations in
                                                         digital & graphical formats        digital & graphical formats       state-of-the-art formats
Coverage            Approx 300 cities                    Eastern United States              Nationwide                        Nationwide

Pollutants          AQ Index for ozone; some cities      Ground-level ozone                 Ground-level ozone                Ground level ozone,
Forecasted          include particulate matter                                                                                particulate matter, possibly
                                                                                                                              others
Forecast            Next-day; also through weekends      Forecast guidance through          Forecast guidance through         Forecast guidance extended
Period                                                   midnight next day                  midnight next day                 to 2 days or beyond

Spatial             Alerts are community-wide; little/   12 kilometer grid                  5 km grid                         2.5 kilometer grid
Resolution          no other spatial information

Temporal                          Daily                                                    1-hr and 8-hr averages each hour
Resolution
                                                                                                                                                        19
         Expanding the IOC: 2005 Improvements

Ozone testing:       3X Now                       Developmental
                     Operational !                (NAM moving to WRF)
                     (NAM NWP with Eta)
Grid coordinates     interpolate to CMAQ C-       In 2006: common E grid;
                     grid and CMAQ σ              common σ-P for NAM & CMAQ
Upgrades to Eta      1 km NOAH landuse
                     2 mb top; improved
                     precipitation assimilation

Improved emissions              2005 Updates to mobile and EGU sources

Photolysis           surface radiative flux       surface and 3-D radiative flux;
                     scaling                      photolysis rates based on NAM
                                                  radiation fields
PBL\                 PBL height                   Incorporate TKE/Kh

Clouds
    Phases           water                        water, graupel & ice
    Mixing           Limit chemical mixing        Testing ACM
                     from above clouds

Lateral BC (ozone)   GFS above 6 km;              more vertical resolution near
                     static below                 tropopause
                                                                                    20
                                              Objective Verification (NCEP)
   Criterion                       Metric                                                                                                      Dates                                                  Status
   Objective                       Correctly predict exceedance and non-                                                                       6/1/05 – 8/1/05
   Evaluation:                         exceedance of ozone concentration
   Accuracy
                                       threshold metrics, during the 24-h valid                                                                                                                                                C
                                       forecast period, on 90% or more days
                                   Threshold metrics:
                                       1-hr avg > 124 ppb
                                       8-hr avg > 84 ppb
    Summary Performance: June 1- July 26, 2005
       - Exceeds target (1-hr)                                                                                                      - Over NEUS, Expanded Guidance
          8-hr: 34/39 days following 6/9 correction                                                                                    Comparable to IOC
                  cumulative accuracy (92%)
                   Experimental Domain: Daily Verification: 1-hr Avg Full EUS Domain
                                                                                                                                              Experimental Domain: Daily Verification: 8-hr Avg over NEUS Domain Only
Full EUS   1.00

           0.90                                                                                                    Expt Domain:    1.00
                                                                                                Hit Accuracy

1-hr avg   0.80
                                                                                                Target               NEUS only     0.90

                                                                                                                                   0.80                                                                        Hit Accuracy
           0.70
                                                                                                                                   0.70                                                                        Target
           0.60
                                                                                                                       8-hr avg    0.60
           0.50                                                                                                                    0.50
           Day 1-Jun      8-Jun     15-Jun     22-Jun    29-Jun     6-Jul     13-Jul       20-Jul        27-Jul                   Day 1-Jun      8-Jun     15-Jun    22-Jun    29-Jun    6-Jul     13-Jul        20-Jul       27-Jul


                   Experimental Domain: Daily Verification: 8-hr Avg Full EUS Domain
                                                                                                                                               IOC Domain: Daily Verification: 8-hr Avg NEUS Domain

Full EUS    1.00                                                                                                    IOC (NEUS):    1.00
            0.90
                                                                                                                                   0.90

8-hr avg    0.80

            0.70
                                                                                       Hit Accuracy
                                                                                       Target
                                                                                                                       8-hr avg    0.80                                                                        Hit Accuracy
                                                                                                                                   0.70                                                                        Target
            0.60
                                                                                                                                   0.60
            0.50
                                                                                                                                   0.50
           Day 1-Jun       8-Jun     15-Jun    22-Jun    29-Jun     6-Jul     13-Jul       20-Jul         27-Jul
                                                                                                                                  Day 1-Jun       8-Jun    15-Jun     22-Jun    29-Jun     6-Jul      13-Jul        20-Jul       27-Jul




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          21
           Verification Statistics, June 24, 2005:
                   Below-Target Example




                                                     Hit accuracy:
                                                          88%




 Obs.   Model   RMSE    NME     MB     NMB    R
Mean    Mean

68.43   73.02   11.66   13.12   4.59   6.71   0.76



                                                                     22
                        Future Science Infusion

NOAA planning for the expansion of the AQ forecast capability to
• National coverage of ozone predictions
• Addition of particulates forecast guidance
• Extended forecast range

Continuing R&D required
• OAR and EPA working actively with NWS to provide prototype capabilities for
  pre-operational development, testing experimental production, and
  implementation:
   – e.g. June 2005 chemical data assimilation workshop


Assuring quality with science peer reviews:
• Design review of major system upgrades (initial, and yearly upgrades)
• Diagnostic evaluations with field campaigns and evaluations
• Publication of T&E in peer-reviewed literature
   – (Otte et al., Weather and Forecasting, June 2005)

                                                                                23
…a look ahead




                24

				
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