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					                                                      Delay Model
                                                       Contents

          Model interface
          Description       An outline of the derivation of this model

          Summary           Area for input of variables and presentation of summary results.


          Input data
          Aircraft data     Aircraft operating data derived from the Westminster Report.

          Airport charges Airport charges derived from the Westminster Report.


          Working areas
          Unit costs        Calculation of aircraft operating costs per minute. Strategic delay costs are also
                            calculated here as they are based on unit costs.

          Table J           Table J from the Westminster Report. This provides the structure for calculating tactical
                            delay costs.


          Model output
          UoW tables        Tables of calculated delay costs. These reproduce tables from the Westminster Report
                            and provide a validation of the model's ability to reproduce the results of the Report. The
                            tables cover tactical delay, with and without the network effect and strategic delay.

          Delay details     The complete database of delay cost elements generated by the model. The source of
                            the summary table in the Summary spreadsheet.

          Original values A static table showing the assumptions in the Westminster Report and the results
                          produced.




30e90362-88e9-4769-8c64-6b86a8e520a0.xls               Page 1 of 15                                               12/18/2011
                                                      Delay Model
                                                      Description

         University of Westminster Report
         The Westminster Report approaches delay costs from two angles. The bulk of the report is given to a
         detailed assessment of the delay costs for 12 specific aircraft types which, together, carry out about 42% of
         the flying time in Europe. As a relatively brief supplement, the Report derives an estimate of the total delay
         costs for Europe and calculates an average delay cost per minute - the €72 value. This value is a tactical
         ground cost, with the network effect (ie including reactionary costs) and also includes the opportunity cost to
         an airline of lost passengers. Because it includes this opportunity cost, it could be applicable to a single
         airline but it would not be appropriate to apply it across the whole fleet. However, the opportunity cost may
         be considered to be a valuation of the cost of delay to passengers.

         Approach of this model
         This model builds on the data for the 12 specific aircraft types in the Westminster Report and introduces a
         notional thirteenth type which carries out the remaining flights in Europe. This aircraft type is a composite of
         the B737-300 and the ATR42(d), with characteristics combined in such proportions that the weighted
         average value for the whole fleet for tactical ground delay cost, with the network effect and the full cost to
         airlines of passenger delays gives the €72 value. The B737-300 and the ATR42(d) were chosen to be
         representative of the medium and smaller aircraft operating in European airspace which were probably
         under represented in the 12 aircraft types.

         The model is then able to produce estimates of the average European cost of delay for the different
         categories of delay (tactical/strategic, with/without network effect, ground/airborne) segmented by types of
         cost (fuel, maintenance, crew, airport charges, aircraft ownership costs, passenger costs). It is then
         possible for the user to substitute the values in the Westminster Report with his own assumptions and
         produce an updated cost of delay.

         Definitions
         Tactical delay     Actual incurred delays.

         Strategic delay    The buffer built into schedules in anticipation of delays.

         Ground delay       Delay incurred on the ground, either at the gate or on the taxiway. The Westminster
                            Report assumed a combination but the model assumes all delay is at the gate. [A switch
                            in Table J allows the original assumption to be re-applied.]

         Airborne delay     Delay incurred in the air, either en-route or when holding. The Westminster Report
                            assumed a combination but the model assumes all delay is whilst holding. [A switch in
                            Table J allows the original assumption to be re-applied.]

         Network effect     The effect of consequential delay caused either to the aircraft incurring the initial delay or
                            to other aircraft.

         Reactionary        A multiplier applied to the cost of an initial delay to account for the costs of consequential
         delay multiplier   delay.

         BHDOC              Block Hour Direct Operating Costs. The direct costs per hour of operating an aircraft,
                            including fuel, crew costs, maintenance, etc. The Westminster Report estimates crew
                            and maintenance costs as assumed percentages of BHDOC.

         Aircraft           The unitised cost of possession of an aircraft, whether it be a depreciation (D), rental (R)
         ownership costs    or leasing (L) charge, expressed as a cost per minute.
         (DRL)
         Passenger          Money costs of catering for, accommodating or compensating passengers who have
         compensation       suffered delays.

         Passenger          Lost future potential revenue from passengers who choose not to fly with a particular
         opportunity cost   airline again as a consequence of delay currently experienced. This is assumed to be
                            equivalent to the cost of delay to passengers.


30e90362-88e9-4769-8c64-6b86a8e520a0.xls               Page 2 of 15                                                12/18/2011
                                                                              Delay Model
                                                                               Summary




                 Scenario                                  Low        Base         High                 Exchange rates
                 Scenario chosen                           Base        0                                Dollar/euro exchange rate          €1 =    $1.30

                 Aircraft operating costs                                                               Indices                            Base year - 2002
                 Aircraft operating data                        Click for details                       Aircraft operating costs                   1.08
   Assumptions




                 Fuel cost (US$/US gallon)                 1.18       1.74        2.41                  Aircraft ownership costs                   1.08
                 Crew cost (% of BHDOC)                     5%        15%         25%                   Passenger costs                            1.08
                 Maintenance cost (% of BHDOC)             15%        15%         15%

                 Costs of passenger delay to airlines   For delays greater than 15 minutes              Reactionary delay multipliers   Delays > 15 minutes
                 Cost per passenger per minute (€)                                                      Passenger costs                             1.8
                  Passenger compensation                   0.13        0.16        0.19                 Non-passenger costs                         1.2
                  Passenger opportunity cost               0.19        0.24        0.29
                 Passenger load factor                     50%         70%         90%                      Update the database




                 Delay costs per minute (€)
                                                          Tactical without           Tactical with
                                                                                                                 Strategic
                                                           network effect           network effect
                                                         Ground     Airborne      Ground     Airborne    Ground        Airborne
                 Fuel costs                                 1          15            1           15         1             15
                 Maintenance costs                          1           1            1            1         -             12
   Results




                 Crew costs                                 9           9           11           11        12             12
                 Ground and passenger handling              -           -            -            -         -              -
                 Airport charges                            0          -0            0            0         -              -
                 Aircraft ownership costs (DRL)             -           -            -            -        10             10
                 Passenger compensation                    14          14           26           26         -              -
                 Direct cost to an airline                 25          40           39           54        22             49
                 Passenger opportunity cost                 22          22          39         39            -               -
                 Overall cost                               47          62          78         93           22               49




30e90362-88e9-4769-8c64-6b86a8e520a0.xls                                      Page 3 of 15                                                             12/18/2011
                                                     Delay Model
                                                      Summary




                                                      Data as of 23/11/06
                                                      Exchange rate - ECB
                                                      Fuel price - IATA
                                                      ECB price index
                                                         Jan 03       94.67
                                                         Oct 06       102.6



                               Delays > 15 minutes




30e90362-88e9-4769-8c64-6b86a8e520a0.xls             Page 4 of 15             12/18/2011
                                                                            Delay Model
                                                                            Aircraft data



                                                                       Fuel (kg/hr)                                              BHDOC (€/hr)
                              APU     stationary     active             en-route                  arrival management
                 Seats        only     ground       taxi out    low       base        high     low        base     high     low      base       high
B737-300            125          115         690          900     2355       2436       2523     2656       2731     2814     2540     4950       6250
B737-400            143          115         690          900     2337       2410       2498     2504       2588     2676     2950     5280       6530
B737-500            100          115         690          900     2169       2224       2288     2483       2530     2584     2540     4550       5630
B737-800            174          115         690          900     2485       2572       2668     2038       2187     2229     2130     4040       5950
B757-200            218          150         820        1000      3195       3311       3417     2685       2789     2867     3330     5960       7380
B767-300ER          240          150        1120        1400      4514       4726       4941     3735       3908     4093     4090     7590      11080
B747-400            406          280        2700        3400      9484       9809      10125     7198       7421     7647     8430    10730      11970
A319                126          120         630          720     2240       2304       2374     1791       1854     1919     2670     5240       6630
A320                155          120         630          720     2279       2355       2429     2002       2074     2151     2720     4790       6860
A321                166          120         730          840     2695       2788       2885     2524       2625     2728     3180     5690       7040
ATR42(d)              46           95        102          120      419        433        447      382        392      404     1400     2510       3100
ATR72(d)              64           95        240          300      628        630        640      498        504      512     1730     3100       3830


All other aircraft are treated as a composite of:
B737-300             57.5%
ATR42(d)             42.5%




30e90362-88e9-4769-8c64-6b86a8e520a0.xls                                     Page 5 of 15                                                        12/18/2011
                                                                               Delay Model
                                                                               Aircraft data



                           DRL (€/hr)               Percentage      Marginal crew costs (€/hr)
                                                        of total                                   Percentage
                  low         base        high       flight time    low       base        high      of flights
B737-300             280         470         660            4.28%         0      577         790      4.6%
B737-400             350         580         810            3.34%         0      608         832      3.1%
B737-500             310         520         730            2.42%         0      608         832      3.1%
B737-800             440         740        1030            3.89%         0      608         832      7.5%
B757-200             450         740        1040            3.99%         0      638         874      2.3%
B767-300ER           690        1150        1610            5.79%         0     1064        1456      1.6%
B747-400             960        1600        2240            6.52%         0     1687        2309      1.6%
A319                 420         690         970            2.03%         0      577         790      6.2%
A320                 450         760        1060            6.32%         0      608         832      9.6%
A321                 550         910        1280            2.46%         0      577         790      3.4%
ATR42(d)             150         240         340                          0      411         564      2.1%
ATR72(d)             200         330         460         1.36%            0      411         564      2.7%


All other aircraft are treated as a composite of:
B737-300
ATR42(d)




30e90362-88e9-4769-8c64-6b86a8e520a0.xls                                        Page 6 of 15                     12/18/2011
                                                      Delay Model
                                                     Airport charges

                    Delay time (minutes)                         65

                                      cost allocation phase ►              direct @ ground A                 incurred @ ground B
                                           OOOI sequence ►                    IN             OUT         ON                IN
                                                 description ►           @ gate A         off-gate A off-gate B            @
                                                                      GPU         APU      take-off    landing
                                                                                                                         gate B
                                                                      only        only        roll       roll
                    B737-300                                             21.2        21.2          0.0       -1.6       0.3
                    B737-400                                             21.6        21.6          0.0       -1.7       0.3
                    B737-500                                             21.0        21.0          0.0       -1.5       0.3
                    B737-800                                             22.9        22.9          0.0       -2.0       0.3
                    B757-200                                             25.0        25.0          0.0       -3.1       0.3
                    B767-300ER                                           29.4        29.4          0.0       -5.0       0.3
             Low




                    B747-400                                             87.2        87.2          0.0     -11.3        1.9
                    A319                                                 21.2        21.2          0.0       -1.6       0.3
                    A320                                                 22.0        22.0          0.0       -1.9       0.3
                    A321                                                 23.7        23.7          0.0       -2.3       0.3
                    ATR42(d)                                             17.2        17.2          0.2       -0.2       0.3
                    ATR72(d)                                             17.6        17.6          0.0       -0.4       0.3
                    Others                                               19.5        19.5          0.1       -1.0       0.3
                    B737-300                                             23.6        23.6          0.0       -0.9       0.3
                    B737-400                                             24.2        24.2          0.0       -1.0       0.3
                    B737-500                                             23.4        23.4          0.0       -0.9       0.3
                    B737-800                                             25.8        25.8          0.0       -1.2       0.3
                    B757-200                                             29.0        29.0          0.0       -1.8       0.3
                    B767-300ER                                           35.0        35.0          0.0       -2.9       0.3
             Base




                    B747-400                                             99.7        99.7          0.0     -11.3        1.9
                    A319                                                 23.7        23.7          0.0       -0.9       0.3
                    A320                                                 24.8        24.8          0.0       -1.1       0.3
                    A321                                                 26.9        26.9          0.0       -1.3       0.3
                    ATR42(d)                                             18.2        18.2          0.2        0.0       0.3
                    ATR72(d)                                             18.8        18.8          0.0       -0.2       0.3
                    Others                                               21.3        21.3          0.1       -0.5       0.3
                    B737-300                                             92.4        92.4          0.0       -1.1      12.3
                    B737-400                                             92.4        92.4          0.0       -1.2      12.3
                    B737-500                                             92.4        92.4          0.0       -1.0      12.3
                    B737-800                                             92.4        92.4          0.0       -1.4      12.3
                    B757-200                                           102.9       102.9           0.0       -2.1      12.3
                    B767-300ER                                         143.1       143.1           0.0       -3.4      12.3
             High




                    B747-400                                           266.6       266.6           0.0    120.0        29.9
                    A319                                                 92.4        92.4          0.0       -1.1      12.3
                    A320                                                 92.4        92.4          0.0       -1.3      12.3
                    A321                                                 92.4        92.4          0.0       -1.6      12.3
                    ATR42(d)                                             92.4        92.4          5.7        5.7      12.3
                    ATR72(d)                                             92.4        92.4          0.0       -0.3      12.3
                    Others                                               92.4        92.4          2.4        1.8      12.3




30e90362-88e9-4769-8c64-6b86a8e520a0.xls                Page 7 of 15                                                 12/18/2011
                                               Delay Model
                                              Airport charges

                                                       Ground
                                                       handling
                                      incurred @ ground B
                                                    IN
                                                    @
                                                  gate B
                                                             0.0
                                                             0.0
                                                             0.0
                                                             0.0
                                                             0.0
                                                             0.0
                                                             0.0
                                                             0.0
                                                             0.0
                                                             0.0
                                                             0.0
                                                             0.0
                                                             0.0
                                                             0.0
                                                             0.0
                                                             0.0
                                                             0.0
                                                             0.0
                                                             0.0
                                                             0.0
                                                             0.0
                                                             0.0
                                                             0.0
                                                             0.0
                                                             0.0
                                                             0.0
                                                           160.0
                                                           160.0
                                                           160.0
                                                           160.0
                                                           160.0
                                                           200.0
                                                           300.0
                                                           160.0
                                                           120.0
                                                           160.0
                                                            90.0
                                                            90.0
                                                           130.3




30e90362-88e9-4769-8c64-6b86a8e520a0.xls        Page 8 of 15       12/18/2011
                                                                        Delay Model
                                                                         Unit costs



Option                 Base
Fuel price €/kg         0.44
                  1        2       3        4        5        6           7           8           9         10           11
                                                                   Input data
                                            Fuel (kg/hr)                        BHDOC        DRL    Percentage Marginal crew
                      Seats    APU   ground    taxi     en-route   arrival        €/hr       €/hr    of flights     €/hr
B737-300                 125     115     690      900      2436      2731       5364.635   509.3694       4.60% 625.3322066
B737-400                 143     115     690      900      2410      2588       5722.277   628.5835       3.06% 658.928911
B737-500                 100     115     690      900      2224      2530       4931.129   563.5576       3.09% 658.928911
B737-800                 174     115     690      900      2572      2187       4378.409   801.9858       7.55% 658.928911
B757-200                 218     150     820     1000      3311      2789       6459.237   801.9858       2.28% 691.4418506
B767-300ER               240     150    1120     1400      4726      3908       8225.774   1246.329       1.57% 1153.125594
B747-400                 406     280    2700     3400      9809      7421       11628.79   1734.023       1.57% 1828.310975
A319                     126     120     630      720      2304      1854       5678.927   747.7976       6.19% 625.3322066
A320                     155     120     630      720      2355      2074       5191.233   823.6611       9.65% 658.928911
A321                     166     120     730      840      2788      2625       6166.621   986.2258       3.35% 625.3322066
ATR42(d)                  46      95     102      120        433       392      2720.249   260.1035       2.06% 445.4272737
ATR72(d)                  64      95     240      300        630       504       3359.67   357.6423       2.72% 445.4272737
Others                    91                                                                            52.31%           549

Weighted averages       120




30e90362-88e9-4769-8c64-6b86a8e520a0.xls                                 Page 9 of 15                                          12/18/2011
                                                                      Delay Model
                                                                       Unit costs



Option
Fuel price €/kg
                  1      12         13         14         15         16          17       18       19
                                                       Cost per minute
                                           Fuel
                      APU      ground      taxi     en-route    arrival Maintenance   Crew      DRL
B737-300                 0.8        5.0         6.6      17.8       19.9       13.4      13.4      8.5
B737-400                 0.8        5.0         6.6      17.6       18.9       14.3      14.3     10.5
B737-500                 0.8        5.0         6.6      16.2       18.5       12.3      12.3      9.4
B737-800                 0.8        5.0         6.6      18.8       16.0       10.9      10.9     13.4
B757-200                 1.1        6.0         7.3      24.2       20.3       16.1      16.1     13.4
B767-300ER               1.1        8.2       10.2       34.5       28.5       20.6      20.6     20.8
B747-400                 2.0       19.7       24.8       71.6       54.1       29.1      29.1     28.9
A319                     0.9        4.6         5.3      16.8       13.5       14.2      14.2     12.5
A320                     0.9        4.6         5.3      17.2       15.1       13.0      13.0     13.7
A321                     0.9        5.3         6.1      20.3       19.1       15.4      15.4     16.4
ATR42(d)                 0.7        0.7         0.9       3.2         2.9       6.8       6.8      4.3
ATR72(d)                 0.7        1.8         2.2       4.6         3.7       8.4       8.4      6.0
Others                   0.8        3.2         4.1      11.6       12.7       10.6      10.6      6.7

Weighted averages        0.8        4.1        5.2      15.1       14.8        12.0      12.0      9.5




30e90362-88e9-4769-8c64-6b86a8e520a0.xls                              Page 10 of 15                      12/18/2011
                                                                      Delay Model
                                                                       Unit costs



Option
Fuel price €/kg
                  1       20           21          22       23          24          25         26         27       28        29
                                                           Strategic delay costs per minute
                                             Ground                                                  Air
                      Fuel    Maintenance      Crew      DRL      Total       Fuel    Maintenance    Crew       DRL      Total
B737-300                  0.8          0.0        13.4      8.5      22.7       17.8          13.4       13.4      8.5      53.1
B737-400                  0.8          0.0        14.3     10.5      25.6       17.6          14.3       14.3     10.5      56.7
B737-500                  0.8          0.0        12.3      9.4      22.6       16.2          12.3       12.3      9.4      50.3
B737-800                  0.8          0.0        10.9     13.4      25.2       18.8          10.9       10.9     13.4      54.0
B757-200                  1.1          0.0        16.1     13.4      30.6       24.2          16.1       16.1     13.4      69.8
B767-300ER                1.1          0.0        20.6     20.8      42.4       34.5          20.6       20.6     20.8      96.4
B747-400                  2.0          0.0        29.1     28.9      60.0       71.6          29.1       29.1     28.9    158.6
A319                      0.9          0.0        14.2     12.5      27.5       16.8          14.2       14.2     12.5      57.7
A320                      0.9          0.0        13.0     13.7      27.6       17.2          13.0       13.0     13.7      56.9
A321                      0.9          0.0        15.4     16.4      32.7       20.3          15.4       15.4     16.4      67.6
ATR42(d)                  0.7          0.0         6.8      4.3      11.8         3.2          6.8        6.8      4.3      21.1
ATR72(d)                  0.7          0.0         8.4      6.0      15.1         4.6          8.4        8.4      6.0      27.4
Others                    0.8          0.0        10.6      6.7      18.1       11.6          10.6       10.6      6.7      39.5

Weighted averages        0.8           0.0        12.0      9.5       22.3       15.1         12.0      12.0       9.5     48.6




30e90362-88e9-4769-8c64-6b86a8e520a0.xls                              Page 11 of 15                                                12/18/2011
                                                                                                                             Delay Model
                                                                                                                               Table J


Aircraft                                         B737-300                                                                                                      Delay definition UoW typical
Scenario                                         Base                                                                                                                                                     0
Delay time (minutes)                             65

Tactical delay costs without network effect
                    cost allocation phase ►                         direct @ ground A                                        direct airborne                               incurred @ ground B                              UoW typical
                         OOOI sequence ►                 IN                           OUT                                         OFF                                          ON                 IN            Without network
                               description ►          @ gate A                     off-gate A                                   airborne                                   off-gate B             @                  effect       With network effect
                                                   GPU       APU           active   statnry     take-off       climb-out                arrival    ToD to    landing        statnry    active
                                                                                                                                                                                                 gate B
                                                   only      only         taxi out  ground        roll         (to ToC)    en-route mngmnt         t'down      roll         ground     taxi in                  Ground    Airborne   Ground    Airborne
▼cost element
                                          fuel                 54.5         426.7      327.2                                 1155.0      1294.9                                                                     0.6      18.4       0.8        18.5
                                 maintenance         35.4      35.4          50.0       47.6                                   79.3        74.4                                                                     0.6       1.2       0.7         1.3
                 crew salaries and expenses         625.3     625.3         625.3      625.3                                  625.3       625.3                                                                     9.6       9.6      11.5        11.5
              ground and passenger handling                                                                                                                                                          0.0            0.0       0.0       0.0         0.0
                              airport charges        25.6      25.6                                   0.0                                                        -1.0                                0.3            0.3       0.0       0.4         0.1
                          all other pax costs                                                                                                                                                     2451.5           37.7      37.7      67.9        67.9
                                                    686.3     740.8        1102.1     1000.1          0.0            0.0     1859.7      1994.7        0.0       -1.0            0.0       0.0    2451.8
proportion of col. total allocated to phase          0.81      0.09          0.04       0.06            1              0        0.7         0.3          0          1              0         0         1
=> average cost per minute for phase                 11.2                                                                      29.2                              37.7
avg cost per min incl. incurred costs @ B            48.9                                                                      66.9                                                                                48.9      66.9      81.3        99.3

Tactical delay costs with network effect
Passenger costs                                       0.0       0.0           0.0        0.0          0.0            0.0        0.0         0.0        0.0        0.0            0.0       0.0    4412.7
Non-passenger costs                                 823.6     889.0        1322.5     1200.1          0.0            0.0     1859.7      1994.7        0.0       -1.2            0.0       0.0       0.4
                                                    823.6     889.0        1322.5     1200.1          0.0            0.0     1859.7      1994.7        0.0       -1.2            0.0       0.0    4413.0
=> average cost per minute for phase                 13.4                                                                      29.2                              67.9
avg cost per min incl. incurred costs @ B            81.3                                                                      99.3

Allocation of maintenance costs                     4.06%    4.06%         5.74%      5.46%                                  9.10%       8.54%                                          5.46%     4.06%

Phase allocation                                                                                                                                                                                              UoW table numbers
  UoW typical                                        0.81      0.09          0.04       0.06               1                     0.7         0.3                       1                                  1         14        15         24         25
  Eurocontrol selection                               0.9       0.1             0          0               1                       0           1                       1                                  1         16        19         26         29




30e90362-88e9-4769-8c64-6b86a8e520a0.xls                                                                                     Page 12 of 15                                                                                                    12/18/2011
                                               Delay Model
                                   Tables from the Westminister Report

                  Tactical delay costs without network effect
                                      Table 2-14                         Table 2-15
                                                Ground delay                      Airborne delay
                                            Low      Base         High         Low       Base       High
                  B737-300                  22.5      48.9        90.4         34.2       66.9     115.4
                  B737-400                  25.7      55.1       100.2         37.1       72.7     124.6
                  B737-500                  18.4      42.0        80.3         29.1       58.5     102.8
                  B737-800                  31.2      64.1       114.7         42.3       81.5     138.8
                  B757-200                  39.0      78.4       137.4         53.6      101.0     168.6
                  B767-300ER                43.1      92.9       169.2         63.7      125.0     214.5
                  B747-400                  74.1     156.2       283.0       115.8       220.0     372.2
                  A319                      22.8      49.3        90.9         32.9       64.8     112.2
                  A320                      27.7      58.4       105.2         38.2       74.7     127.6
                  A321                      29.9      61.6       109.8         42.6       81.2     137.1
                  ATR42(d)                   8.5      21.4        44.0         10.3       24.4      47.1
                  ATR72(d)                  11.7      26.8        52.3         14.4       31.0      57.2
                  Others                    16.4      36.9        70.8         23.9       48.6      86.4
                  Weighted averages         21.6      47.0        87.4         31.1       61.7     107.4

                  Tactical delay costs with network effect
                                      Table 2-24                         Table 2-25
                                                Ground delay                      Airborne delay
                                            Low      Base         High         Low       Base       High
                  B737-300                  39.9      81.3       143.5         51.6       99.3     168.4
                  B737-400                  45.6      92.1       160.2         57.0      109.8     184.6
                  B737-500                  32.4      68.6       124.5         43.2       85.1     147.0
                  B737-800                  55.5     108.4       186.3         66.6      125.8     210.5
                  B757-200                  69.5     133.6       226.0         84.1      156.2     257.3
                  B767-300ER                76.7     155.2       270.5         97.3      187.3     315.8
                  B747-400                 131.2     261.3       453.5       172.8       325.1     542.7
                  A319                      40.5      82.0       144.4         50.6       97.6     165.7
                  A320                      49.3      98.2       169.6         59.7      114.4     192.1
                  A321                      53.2     104.1       178.2         65.8      123.7     205.6
                  ATR42(d)                  15.0      34.0        65.5         16.8       37.0      68.7
                  ATR72(d)                  20.7      43.6        80.6         23.4       47.8      85.4
                  Others                    29.1      60.7       110.5         36.5       72.4     126.2
                  Weighted averages         38.4      78.1       138.6         47.8       92.8     158.6

                  Strategic delay costs
                                      Table 2-40                         Table 2-42
                                                Ground delay                      Airborne delay
                                            Low      Base        High          Low       Base       High
                  B737-300                   7.9      22.7       41.3          25.9       53.1      82.6
                  B737-400                   9.6      25.6       45.3          28.5       56.7      87.1
                  B737-500                   8.5      22.6       39.8          25.5       50.3      77.0
                  B737-800                  10.4      25.2       46.6          27.9       54.0      88.6
                  B757-200                  11.9      30.6       53.6          35.9       69.8     106.7
                  B767-300ER                16.9      42.4       80.6          49.5       96.4     159.1
                  B747-400                  26.3      60.0       97.3          94.7      158.6     229.4
                  A319                      10.6      27.5       48.7          28.3       57.7      89.4
                  A320                      11.2      27.6       51.3          29.2       56.9      93.3
                  A321                      13.4      32.7       56.1          34.7       67.6     103.2
                  ATR42(d)                   4.4      11.8       21.1           9.8       21.1      33.1
                  ATR72(d)                   5.6      15.1       26.6          13.0       27.4      42.5
                  Others                     6.4      18.1       32.7          19.1       39.5      61.6
                  Weighted averages          8.5      22.3       40.2          24.3       48.6      76.1




30e90362-88e9-4769-8c64-6b86a8e520a0.xls         Page 13 of 15                                             12/18/2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Delay Model
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Delay details


                                                                                                                                                                     Low                                                                                                                                                   Base                                                                                                                                                    High




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Weighted averages




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Weighted averages




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Weighted averages
                                                                                                                                                     B767-300ER




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            B767-300ER




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   B767-300ER
                                                                                              B737-300

                                                                                                         B737-400

                                                                                                                    B737-500

                                                                                                                               B737-800

                                                                                                                                          B757-200




                                                                                                                                                                  B747-400




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     B737-300

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                B737-400

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           B737-500

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      B737-800

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 B757-200




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         B747-400




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            B737-300

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       B737-400

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  B737-500

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             B737-800

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        B757-200




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                B747-400
                                                                                                                                                                                                  ATR42(d)

                                                                                                                                                                                                             ATR72(d)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ATR42(d)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ATR72(d)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ATR42(d)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ATR72(d)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Others




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Others




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Others
                                                                                                                                                                             A319

                                                                                                                                                                                    A320

                                                                                                                                                                                           A321




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    A319

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           A320

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  A321




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           A319

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  A320

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         A321
                                                                                Fuel           0          0          0          0          1          1            2          0      0      0         0       0          0        0                   1          1          1          1          1          1   2                   1      1      1      0          0          0        1                   1   1                 1   1   1   1   3                                        1   1   1            0          0          1        1
  Tactical delay costs without network




                                                                                Maintenance    0          0          0          0          0          0            1          0      0      0         0       0          0        0                   1          1          1          0          1          1   1                   1      1      1      0          0          0        1                   1   1                 1   1   1   1   1                                        1   1   1            0          0          1        1
                                                           Ground delay




                                                                                Crew           0          0          0          0          0          0            0          0      0      0         0       0          0        0                  10         10         10         10         11         18 28                   10     10     10      7          7          8        9                  26 28                 28 28 29 49 77                                           26 28 26             19         19         23       26
                                                                                Handling       0          0          0          0          0          0            0          0      0      0         0       0          0        0                   0          0          0          0          0          0   0                   0      0      0      0          0          0        0                   3   3                 3   3   3   3   5                                        3   2   3            2          2          2        2
                                                                                Airport        0          0          0          0          0          0            1          0      0      0         0       0          0        0                   0          0          0          0          0          0   1                   0      0      0      0          0          0        0                   2   2                 2   2   2   2   6                                        2   2   2            2          2          2        2
                                                                                Passengers    22         25         17         30         38         42           70         22     27     29         8      11         16       21                  38         43         30         52         66         73 123                  38     47     50     14         19         27       36                  58 67                 47 81 102 112 190                                        59 72 78             21         30         43       56
                                                                                Total         23         26         18         31         39         43           74         23     28     30         8      12         16       22                  49         55         42         64         78         93 156                  49     58     62     21         27         37       47                  90 100                80 115 137 169 283                                       91 105 110           44         52         71       87
                  effect




                                                                                Fuel          12         12         11         12         15         21 43                   10     11     13      2          3          8       10                  18         18         17         18 23 33 66                                   16     17     20      3          4         12       15 26 26 24 26 33 47 95 23 24 29                                                                                         4          6         17 21
                                                           Airborne delay




                                                                                Maintenance    1          1          1          1          1          1   2                   1      1      1      0          0          0        1                   1          1          1          1   1   2   3                                 1      1      1      1          1          1        1   2   2   1   1   2   3   3   2   2   2                                                                               1          1          1   1
                                                                                Crew           0          0          0          0          0          0   0                   0      0      0      0          0          0        0                  10         10         10         10 11 18 28                                   10     10     10      7          7          8        9 26 28 28 28 29 49 77 26 28 26                                                                                        19         19         23 26
                                                                                Handling       0          0          0          0          0          0   0                   0      0      0      0          0          0        0                   0          0          0          0   0   0   0                                 0      0      0      0          0          0        0   3   3   3   3   3   3   5   3   2   3                                                                               2          2          2   2
                                                                                Airport        0          0          0          0          0          0   0                   0      0      0      0          0          0        0                   0          0          0          0   0   0   0                                 0      0      0      0          0          0        0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0                                                                               0          0          0   0
                                                                                Passengers    22         25         17         30         38         42 70                   22     27     29      8         11         16       21                  38         43         30         52 66 73 123                                  38     47     50     14         19         27       36 58 67 47 81 102 112 190 59 72 78                                                                                     21         30         43 56
                                                                                Total         34         37         29         42         54         64 116                  33     38     43     10         14         24       31                  67         73         58         81 101 125 220                                65     75     81     24         31         49       62 115 125 103 139 169 215 372 112 128 137                                                                              47         57         86 107

                                                                                Fuel           1          1          1          1          1          1   2                   0      0      1      0          0          0        0                   1          1          1   1   1   1   3                                        1      1   1         0          0          1        1   1   1   1   1   1   2   4   1   1   1                                                                               0          0   1   1
            Tactical delay costs with network effect




                                                                                Maintenance    0          0          0          0          0          1   1                   0      0      0      0          0          0        0                   1          1          1   1   1   1   1                                        1      1   1         0          0          1        1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   1   1   1                                                                               0          1   1   1
                                                           Ground delay




                                                                                Crew           0          0          0          0          0          0   0                   0      0      0      0          0          0        0                  12         12         12 12 13 21 34                                           12     12 12          8          8         10       11 32 33 33 33 35 58 92 32 33 32                                                                                        23         23 28 31
                                                                                Handling       0          0          0          0          0          0   0                   0      0      0      0          0          0        0                   0          0          0   0   0   0   0                                        0      0   0         0          0          0        0   3   3   3   3   3   4   6   3   2   3                                                                               2          2   3   3
                                                                                Airport        0          0          0          0          0          0   1                   0      0      0      0          0          0        0                   0          0          0   0   0   1   2                                        0      0   0         0          0          0        0   2   2   2   2   2   3   8   2   2   2                                                                               2          2   2   2
                                                                                Passengers    39         44         31         54         68         75 127                  39     48     52     14         20         28       37                  68         78         55 94 119 131 222                                        69     84 91         25         34         49       65 105 120 84 146 184 202 342 106 130 140                                                                               38         53 77 101
                                                                                Total         40         46         32         55         70         77 131                  41     49     53     15         21         29       38                  81         92         69 108 134 155 261                                       82     98 104        34         44         61       78 143 160 124 186 226 270 454 144 170 178                                                                              66         81 111 139

                                                                                Fuel          12         12         11         12         15         21 44                   10     11     13      2          3          8       10                  19 18                 17 18 23 33 67                                           16 17 20              3          4         12       15 27 26 24 26 33 48 96 23 24 29                                                                                         4          6 17 22
                                                           Airborne delay




                                                                                Maintenance    1          1          1          1          1          1   2                   1      1      1      0          0          1        1                   1   1                 1   1   2   2   3                                        1   1   2            1          1          1        1   2   2   1   2   2   3   3   2   2   2                                                                               1          1   1   2
                                                                                Crew           0          0          0          0          0          0   0                   0      0      0      0          0          0        0                  12 12                 12 12 13 21 34                                           12 12 12              8          8         10       11 32 33 33 33 35 58 92 32 33 32                                                                                        23         23 28 31
                                                                                Handling       0          0          0          0          0          0   0                   0      0      0      0          0          0        0                   0   0                 0   0   0   0   0                                        0   0   0            0          0          0        0   3   3   3   3   3   4   6   3   2   3                                                                               2          2   3   3
                                                                                Airport        0          0          0          0          0          0   0                   0      0      0      0          0          0        0                   0   0                 0   0   0   0   0                                        0   0   0            0          0          0        0   1   0   1   0   1   1   4   1   0   0                                                                               1          1   1   1
                                                                                Passengers    39         44         31         54         68         75 127                  39     48     52     14         20         28       37                  68 78                 55 94 119 131 222                                        69 84 91             25         34         49       65 105 120 84 146 184 202 342 106 130 140                                                                               38         53 77 101
                                                                                Total         52         57         43         67         84         97 173                  51     60     66     17         23         37       48                  99 110                85 126 156 187 325                                       98 114 124           37         48         72       93 168 185 147 210 257 316 543 166 192 206                                                                              69         85 126 159

                                                                                Fuel              1       1             1       1          1          1            1          1      1      1         0          0         1              1           1          1          1          1          1          1            2          1      1      1      1          1          1        1                   1          1          1          1          2          2            3          1      1      1      1          1          1        1
                                                           Ground delay




                                                                                Maintenance       0       0             0       0          0          0            0          0      0      0         0          0         0              0           0          0          0          0          0          0            0          0      0      0      0          0          0        0                   0          0          0          0          0          0            0          0      0      0      0          0          0        0
            Strategic delay costs




                                                                                Crew              2       3             2       2          3          4            8          2      2      3         1          2         2              2          13         14         12         11         16         21           29         14     13     15      7          8         11       12                  28         29         25         27         33         50           54         30     31     32     14         17         22       26
                                                                                DRL               5       6             6       8          8         12           17          8      8     10         3          4         4              6           8         10          9         13         13         21           29         12     14     16      4          6          7       10                  12         15         13         19         19         29           40         18     19     23      6          8          9       13
                                                                                Total             8      10             8      10         12         17           26         11     11     13         4          6         6              8          23         26         23         25         31         42           60         28     28     33     12         15         18       22                  41         45         40         47         54         81           97         49     51     56     21         27         33       40
                                                           Airborne delay




                                                                                Fuel          12         12         11         12         16         22           47         11     11     13      2          3          8       10                  18         18         16         19         24         34 72                   17     17     20      3          5         12       15                  26         25         23         27 35 50 102                                  24     25 29          5          6         17       22
                                                                                Maintenance    7          8          7          6          9         11           23          7      7      9      4          5          6        7                  13         14         12         11         16         21 29                   14     13     15      7          8         11       12                  17         18         15         16 20 30 32                                   18     19 19          8         10         13       15
                                                                                Crew           2          3          2          2          3          4            8          2      2      3      1          2          2        2                  13         14         12         11         16         21 29                   14     13     15      7          8         11       12                  28         29         25         27 33 50 54                                   30     31 32         14         17         22       26
                                                                                DRL            5          6          6          8          8         12           17          8      8     10      3          4          4        6                   8         10          9         13         13         21 29                   12     14     16      4          6          7       10                  12         15         13         19 19 29 40                                   18     19 23          6          8          9       13
                                                                                Total         26         29         25         28         36         50           95         28     29     35     10         13         19       24                  53         57         50         54         70         96 159                  58     57     68     21         27         39       49                  83         87         77         89 107 159 229                                89     93 103        33         42         62       76

                                                       1                    2             3       4          5          6          7          8           9       10         11     12     13     14         15         16       17                  18         19         20         21         22         23           24         25     26     27     28         29         30       31                  32         33         34         35         36         37           38         39     40     41     42         43         44       45




30e90362-88e9-4769-8c64-6b86a8e520a0.xls                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Page 14 of 15                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       12/18/2011
                                                                           Delay Model
                                                                          Original values




                   Scenario                                  Low        Base        High                 Exchange rates
                   Scenario chosen                           Base        0                               Dollar/euro exchange rate          €1 =    $1.00

                   Aircraft operating costs                                                              Indices                            Base year - 2002
                   Aircraft operating data                        Click for details                      Aircraft operating costs                   1.00
     Assumptions




                   Fuel cost (US$/US gallon)                 0.64       0.95        1.32                 Aircraft ownership costs                   1.00
                   Crew cost (% of BHDOC)                     5%        15%         25%                  Passenger costs                            1.00
                   Maintenance cost (% of BHDOC)             15%        15%         15%

                   Costs of passenger delay to airlines   For delays greater than 15 minutes             Reactionary delay multipliers   Delays > 15 minutes
                   Cost per passenger per minute (€)                                                     Passenger costs                             1.8
                    Passenger compensation                   0.13        0.16       0.19                 Non-passenger costs                         1.2
                    Passenger opportunity cost               0.19        0.24       0.29
                   Passenger load factor                     50%         70%        90%




                   Delay costs per minute (€)
                                                            Tactical without          Tactical with
                                                                                                                  Strategic
                                                             network effect          network effect
                                                           Ground     Airborne     Ground     Airborne    Ground        Airborne
                   Fuel costs                                 0          11           0           11         1             11
                   Maintenance costs                          0           1           1            1         -             11
     Results




                   Crew costs                                 9           9          10           10        11             11
                   Ground and passenger handling              -           -           -            -         -              -
                   Airport charges                            0          -0           0            0         -              -
                   Aircraft ownership costs (DRL)             -           -           -            -         9              9
                   Passenger compensation                    13          13          24           24         -              -
                   Direct cost to an airline                 23          34          36           46        20             42
                   Passenger opportunity cost                 20          20         36         36            -               -
                   Overall cost                               43          54         72         82           20               42




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