CONCLUSION - IPE

					CONCLUSION - IPE
• Is THE 21ST CENTURY

• The Asian Century?
  – Kishore Mabhubani The New Asian
    Hemisphere: The Irresistible Shift of Global
    Power to the East
• The Multi-Polar Century?
  – David Dollar (World Bank)
• Currently US unchallenged power in the
  world – economy $10.7 trillion
• (French call US a hyperpower,
  Neoconservatives call it the new Rome)
• By mid-century China (currently $6.3
  trillion) and India ($3.6 trillion) overtake
  US economy in size
• US per capital income 11 times that of
  India and 8 times that of China currently
• ‘advantages of backwardness’ (Western
  Europe after WW II and S Europe (Spain,
  Greece, Italy, Portugal) narrow income gap
  by
• Technological catch-up, flows of investment,
  capital, human capital development
  (scientists and engineers)
• China – since Deng Xiaoping liberalization
  1978
• India - since Dr. Manmohan Singh PM 1981
• Projections - 2050 India’s economy same size
  as US; China overtake US
• Integrated Asian economy links Southern Asia,
  S-E Asia and N-W Asia - total = half of world
  GNP (up from 1/3) with about 60% of world’s
  population.
• US beneficiary of economic growth of Asia -
  variety of low cost Asian products
• Scientific and technological advances from Asia
• Kishore Mabhubani
• West has dominated world economy for
  the last 200 years
• Year 1-1820 A.D. according to Angus
  Maddison, British economic historian,
  China and India dominated
• Goldman Sachs 2003 report - by 2050
  four largest economies will be China, U.S.,
  India and Japan in that order,
• Lawrence Summers (former US Treasury
  Secretary
• “during the industrial revolution the
  standard of living rose at a rate of maybe
  50% during a person’s life time
• Asia’s current growth rate represents an
  unprecedented 10,000% rise in living
  standards in one life time
• Global Economic Order: Rules and
  Institutions
• Liberal trading regime?
• Asian economies have grown via selective
  combination of import substitution/export
  led growth (not territorial expansion)
• Protectionism? Impact of rise in
  protectionist sentiment in western
  societies?
• Global Economic institutions? Global
  Governance
• Victors of WW II dominate WB, IMF
• WB headed by an American, IMF-European. –
  anachronistic
• UN Security Council (Europe 2 seats, Britain and
  France), 2009 single EU foreign policy, change
  to one seat?
• Many agree, although no American officially
  advocates one European seat in Security
  Council
• WORK in the Knowledge/ Information Age
• Highest level of employment rates in late
  1990s
• Technological change, communications,
  automation has impacted low end workers
• Division between high skill elite labour and
  mass of unemployed
• Jeremy Rifkin The End of World: The Decline of
  the Global Labour Force and the Dawn of the
  Post-Market Era
• Entire categories of workers becoming
  redundant (clerical workers, secretaries,
  receptionists, sales clerks, bank tellers,
  telephone operators)
• Industrial Age, machines replace human labour
• Computers/ robots – human mind
• Mass unemployment, not because no
  skills adequate to the market, but not
  enough jobs
• Shift to a workless society
• Solutions: 30 day week?
• Social wage?
• Social economy?
             Review:
    What is Political Economy?
• Political Economy
• Scholarship – Adam Smith, John Steuart,
  Karl Marx
• Main insight that material structure of
  society (social organization of production,
  distribution) shapes nature of politics,
  society etc.
• Feudalism/ Capitalism
• Theories of Political Economy
      Origin of Global economy

• China and India centre of production and
  commerce 14th century
• 15th century China internal collapse
• Discovery of the Americas 1492 gold
• Role of diseases, infections
• Atlantic Slave Trade
• Challenge conventional notion that
  industrial revolution in UK due to
  cultural/religious superiority

				
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