Global Feed Markets: November - December 2011 by GFMT

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									Digital Re-print - November | December 2011
   Global Feed Markets: November - December 2011



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                                                                                                                                                                                                                             COMMODITIES
                                        GLOBAL
                                         GRAIN & FEED MARKETS
                                              Every issue GFMT’s market analyst John Buckley reviews
                                            world trading conditions which are impacting the full range of
                                          commodities used in food and feed production. His observations
                                                         will influence your decision-making.



                                                                                                                                                the two grain price booms of recent years      per annum growth will continue in its feed   and each year after that to 2015/16 . Will
     At this early stage,
                                  Lowest grain costs in over a year                                                                             – bio-fuels. Is bio-ethanol - after a period
                                                                                                                                                of relatively flat growth – about to start
                                                                                                                                                                                               demand for the next five years. That will
                                                                                                                                                                                               need 6/7m tonnes more grain fed in 2012/13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            China’s domestic crops keep pace? Official
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            figures suggest they have so far but western
      some pundits are                                                                                                                          mopping up any surpluses




                                 G
                                                                                                                                                as grain costs fall? US corn
    looking for modest                         ROWING supplies and renewed              which has maintained its highly unusual premium         ethanol production has already
                                               fears of global economic recession       to wheat into latter 2012.                              been looking with the slide in
 growth in next year’s                         cramping demand have slashed grain          With wheat supplies far more abundant than           maize prices (although the
                                               prices again in recent weeks. As we      maize and plenty of lower grade wheat from the          scheduled ending of blending
US soyabean plantings            go to press, market leaders wheat and maize            milling quality problems mentioned above, feeding       subsidies in 2012 might also
                                 are a good 25% below their 2012 peak prices,           of wheat to livestock is already expected to rise       be encouraging a ‘make hay
     and, given normal           trading in some markets at their cheapest levels       by about 14m tonnes to 126.4m – almost a fifth          while the sun shines’ push in
                                 in well over a year – and there may be more            of total world wheat consumption. If wheat prices       this sector). It’s interesting to
    weather a possible           downside to come.                                      dipped seriously on their own loose fundamentals,       note that the main growth in
                                    Although the EU wheat market itself looks           the rationale goes, feed demand would go even           US corn ethanol production
        larger crop. The         in fairly fine balance this season (i.e. a forecast    higher. Some of this feed gain for wheat is taking      now is in exports rather than
                                 marginal change in ending stocks),                                                                             domestic consumption – so US
   outlook for EU 2012           world wheat supplies have clearly                                                                              feed corn users, traditionally
                                 been moving into a surplus position                                                                            the main outlet for maize, are
    rapeseed output is           as 2011 crop estimates continued to                                                                            still paying relatively high prices,
                                 grow, led mainly by the ‘Black Sea’ (CIS)                                                                      not just to wean US drivers
 uncertain at this stage         countries.                                                                                                     off dependence on foreign oil
                                    What reaction should wheat prices                                                                           but to help fill car vehicle fuel
   with good weather             offer to this ever loosening supply? Are                                                                       tanks in Brazil and Europe.
                                 they now cheap enough to reflect the                                                                           Although the UK/European
       boosting winger           known ‘fundamentals?’ One might as                                                                             grain ethanol industry has had
                                 well ask, did they ever really merit going                                                                     its well-publicised problems,
   sowings in much of            as high as they did in February of this year (almost   place in the US, Europe and the former Soviet           one might expect lower grain
                                 $9/bu, about $330/tonne) on the bellwether             Union, some if it a straight switch from maize in       costs to have an impact here
   western Europe but            Chicago futures market. After all, while last year’s   importing countries in Asia and elsewhere.              too. The same applies to a
                                 Russian crop failure and wet harvest/quality issues        Looking to the medium/longer term for wheat,        host of countries who had
too much rain delaying           in Canada, Australia and Germany deservedly put        first indications for 2012 crops suggest higher         been thinking about using
                                 a firework under the market, world wheat stocks        planted acreage as farmers continue to respond to       more grain as a renewable fuel
       and downsizing            fell by a mere 2.4% and remained at their fourth       relatively high prices in Europe, the USA, probably     source before rising grain costs
                                 highest level of the past decade.                      other regions too – so even more wheat.                 spoiled things
 plantings in Germany,              This inevitably again begs the question, what           Already some pundits are fretting about the            Will broader feed demand
                                 role did speculators really play in driving up wheat   price of wheat descending to levels that leave          in China and other emerging
       normally the top          and maize prices in 2008 and 2011? Did they over-      farmers little or no profit as it did two seasons ago   economies maintain the rapid
                                 react to fundamentals and are they now doing the       (Chicago wheat collapsed to $4.50s/bushel - $165/       pace of recent years in the
producer, and too little         same now on the downside amid the ‘risk aversion’      tonne - as soon as December 2008 from a peak of         current uncertain economic
                                 generated by the bleak global economic outlook.        $13 - $478/tonne in February of that year!). We         climate? China has been the
  moisture threatening           (some of the selling of grain futures by ‘managed      have consistently maintained in this column, ever       biggest single factor driving up
                                 money’ is also thought to be a cash raising exercise   since the Russian crop failure that prices this time    feedgrain demand in recent
    prospects for some           to margin recent huge losses on US and other           were more likely to come halfway rather than all        years, raising its consumption
                                 global stock-markets).                                 the way back to those lows. One reason is that          by 43% or 44m tonnes in
      southern/eastern              Many traders and analysts think wheat prices        costs of production have risen – inputs, land etc       the past decade to account
                                 would even now be far lower than the recent $6/        all saw an above-inflationary jump when the base        for 56% of world growth in
        member states.           bushel (about $220/tonne) recently trading in          prices for grains doubled.                              this sector. Recent Chinese
                                 Chicago, were it not for the high price of maize           Another reason is the other factor behind           official forecasts suggest 4-5%




 36 | november - december 2011                                                                         Grain  &feed millinG technoloGy          Grain &feed millinG technoloGy                                                                            november - december 2011 | 37
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               COMMODITIES
                                                                                                  from its September highs        Grains Council suggest world plantings for        considerably and current projections are for           tonnes. However the global out-turn will, as
                                                                                                  of �209. It’s hard to believe   2012 will increase by 1.6% top 224.6m ha, the     a bigger crop than last year’s. EU sowings             usual, depend more on weather and yields
                                                                                                  that this market was trading    biggest rises in North America and the CIS.       are also seen up amid generally favourable             than acreage changes. Yields, for example, fell
                                                                                                  �281 in February when ‘skies    Although total US area could be as much as        weather in northern member states but some             3.3% in 2010 but recovered by almost 7% this
                                                                                                  the limit’ pundits talked of    7% higher, questions linger over the impact of    dryness issues in the south/east. Driven by this       year, achieving a record average 3.1 tonnes/
                                                                                                  an assault on �300. UK feed     dry planting conditions affecting about 30%       year’s good crops and successful exports (at           ha. That’s all the more remarkable when
                                                                                                  wheat has also dropped to       of the key hard red winter crop, the biggest      still relatively high prices), Russia is expected to   one considers the challenges faced by late
                                                                                                  about £143 from February        component in US expor ts and domestic             sow about 5% more. First tentative estimates           sowing in Canada, droughts and heatwaves
                                                                                                  highs of £214/tonne.            breadwheat use. Recent rains have helped          for 2012 output have been around 690/695m              in Western Europe and other weather issues.
                                                                                                     Despite drought threats
                                analysts think this has been at the expense   to the US hard red winter crop, expor t
                                of running down reserve stocks and that       prices for this grade dropped to $284/tonne
                                imports, especially of maize, will play a
                                far larger part from next year onwards.
                                                                              in mid-November compared with $310 at
                                                                              the time of oir last review. Quality spring         Silo Construction & Engineering
                                However, China has a habit of springing       wheats had been the firmest sector after the
                                surprises on the market. While it has been    USDA revised down its US crop estimate in
                                                                                                                                                                     Modular square bins
                                buying far more foreign maize this year, it   November, pushing fob value up from $390                                                                                                                     more than 100 years a reliable partner
                                has not yet lived up to the bullish import    to $409/tonne. However, these too appear
                                forecasts of the US Grains Council and        to be easing on lack of domestic and export                                                                                                                     Feed mills             Silos
                                others. There is also the possibility that    demand a these levels and reports of much                                                                                                                       Flourmills             Bulk handling systems
                                its own economy may slow, putting the         better quality from this year’s Canadian crop.
                                brakes on its expanding meat consumption.        Most of the credit for cheaper wheat goes                                                                                                                    Pet Food plants        Electric control &
                                    Another question is whether US demand     to the ‘Black Sea’ former Soviet producers                                                                                                                      Aqua feed mills        Automation systems
                                for feedgrains - running 10/12% lower for     who have raised their combined wheat                                                                                                                            Premix & concentrate
                                the past two seasons – will perk up next      output by 31.5m tonnes, 13m more than                                                                                                                           plants
                                year under these economic conditions?         most pundits expected back in the summer.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Cereal Processing
                                Mixed messages have been coming from          Relentless, aggressive sales by Russia and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              plants
                                the livestock sectors, more encouraging for   latterly both Ukraine and Kazakhstan have
                                cattle and pigs than for poultry. European    virtually dominated the world import markets,                                                                                                                   Oil seed processing
                                grain feeding is also down about 7% still     undercutting US and European grain by as
                                from its 2008/9 level. Will that pick up      much as $30/50 per tonne, depending on


                                                                                                                                                                               SCE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    WWW.OTTEVANGER.COM
                                in 2012?                                      types and grades. Top importers like Egypt
                                    For oilmeals, led by soyabeans, the       and other Middle Easterm/North African                                                                                                                       Aalten - Holland          Moerkapelle - Holland
                                prospect is largely encouraging. The US       countries have been only too pleased to reap                                                                                                                 T +31 (0)543 47 26 88     T +31 (0)79 593 52 97
                                did have a smaller than expected soya         this bonanza, shunning the US, Europe and                                                                                                                    F +31 (0)543 47 54 75     F +31 (0)79 593 11 47
                                crop this year, considerably under last       other countries that baled out FSU shortages                                                                                                                 E aalten@ottevanger.com   E mkp@ottevanger.com
                                year’s, but lower crush and exports will      during last season’s Russian export bans and                                                    SCE is a partner with
                                keep stocks from getting too tight before     Ukrainian quotas, duties etc.                                                                      the international
                                season’s end. Latin American soya crops          Along with gradually descending maize
                                have meanwhile gone in quickly and are        prices (to which wheat has pinned its fortunes                                               feed & food industries •
                                getting good weather, promising earlier       this year), this intense export competition has                                     consultancy & engineering firms •
                                than usual, possible record harvests next     been the biggest factor driving down Chicago                                             machine & plant designers •
                                spring. US soya exports are already down      and European grain futures markets.
                                amid Latin American competition from the         Wheat output is also up this year by more                                                      www.sce.be
                                region’s huge 2011 crops which left record    than expected in Europe and China (about                                                                                              CRAFTMANSHIP IN THE ANIMAL FEED AND FOOD PROCESSING INDUSTRY
                                stocks to dispose of this autumn at a time    2m tonnes each), India (+5m), Canada (1m).
                                when the US usually has the market to         Even a 5.7m tonne crop decline for the leading
                                itself. This, along with the drop in grain    exporter, the USA, has been overwhelmed by
                                prices and the macro-economic gloom has       the staggering 40m tonnes added to output
                                brought soya costs down sharply too and, if   elsewhere. As a result, world wheat output is
                                all goes well with the Latin American crops   currently expected to finish 2011/12 at about
                                in the next few months, further price cuts    683m tonnes but it would not be surprising
                                might not be ruled out.                       to see that creep up over 685m when all
                                                                              the Black Sea crops have been fully counted.
                                Main commodity highlights                     That’s about 20/25m more than predicted in
                                                                              July. Wheat consumption on the other hand is
                                since our last review                         seen rising this season by about 23m tonnes.
                                  Wheat – further price cuts possible         That’s above the long term trend, thanks to
                                  European markets in recent weeks            the boom in wheat feeding, but it will still lag
                                have taken much of their lead from the        production by enough to add at least 6m,
                                US markets, especially the Chicago futures,   maybe 10m or more (when all the CIS crops
                                where nearby wheat deliveries during          are in) to global ending stocks by mid-2012.
                                November were trading at some of their        These are already forecast at a 10-year high
                                lowest levels since July 2010.                of around 203m tonnes, a stock/use ratio of
                                  The Paris futures market fell to a new      30% about 15.6 weeks supply.
                                low of �179/tonne on the front month             Early forecasts from the International


38 | november - december 2011                                                         Grain  &feed millinG technoloGy              Grain  &feed millinG technoloGy                                                                                          november - december 2011 | 39
FACTORS IN THE MONTHS AHEAD                         crop), world output is up by 30m tonnes
                                                    this season against a consumption rise of
                                                                                                       • How much maize will the US sow next
                                                                                                         spring? Probably more than this year
• Big Ukrainian and Kazakhstan crops are            22m. As in the USA, this will still leave world    • Will Ukraine sow even more maize next
  stepping up their 2011/12 exports, willing        2011/12 ending stocks (next September)               spring on land vacated by failed/unplanted
  and able to fill the ‘cheap wheat’ vacuum         about 7m-8m tonnes down and very low                 winter wheat and bartley crops?
                                                                                                                                                         Solution Engineering in Bulk Handling
  once Russia starts to wind down its own           in relation to consumption needs. This is          • Global economic problems continue to
  aggressive 2011/12 campaign.                      more encouraging for die-hard maize bulls            erode consumer confidence, negative
• But can landlocked Kazakhstan get the grain       and demands a larger world maize crop next           for meat/feed demand and a continuing
  out fast enough through Russia (clogged           year. Currently, pundits are predicting the US       restraint on grain & oilseed prices
  with its own record grain traffic) or Ukraine     will sow more maize next spring but,
  (heading the same way as it markets record        as always, area will depend on relative
  maize versus wheat exports). And how              corn prices versus soyabeans and on the
  much quality milling will Ukraine actually        weather, which can cause huge shifts in
  have as opposed to lower/feed grades?             acreage to soyabeans if maize planting
                                                       gets delayed.
                                                          Until these uncer tainties are
                                                       resolved, in second quarter 2012, there
                                                       is always the possibility of another
                                                       bull run on maize prices and where
                                                       maize goes, wheat must follow. For
                                                       the moment, however, the competition
                                                       from South American and the former
                                                       Soviet Union is setting a low world
                                                       import price, considerably below US
                                                       fob and Chicago futures levels. So is
• Will the Ukraine and the USA yet pull             the abundance of feed wheat mentioned
  reasonable 2012 crops out of a challenging        above.
  dry autumn/early winter period?                       US maize exports are falling behind
• Will the US plant a lot more spring wheat         official forecasts amid the competition
  in 2012 to make up for this year’s shortfalls?    and while these only make up about 12%             • Speculators’ interest in commodities – likely
                                                    of US maize disposals (the rest split mainly         to be more evident in maize due to the tight
Coarse grains –                                     between feed and ethanol), this has been             forecast US/world ending stocks for 2011/12
   Unlike wheat, maize is still a fairly tight      weighing on prices.                                  – spring planting time could see them return
market on paper. The US crop has turned                 For the EU itself, maize supplies have been      as buyers if the weather plays up
out smaller than expected, lower than last          boosted by a record crop around 64.7 tonnes        • Ethanol competition for maize supplies –
year’s by 3.5m tonnes and about 8m under            compared with last year’s 55.8m. Demand              could resurge if maize costs continue to
estimated domestic and export needs. The            is expected to expand by about 2m tonnes,            fall – helping prices find a bottom
tighter ending stocks resulting, their lowest for   using up all the extra supplies but imports
decades in terms of consumption, are keeping        will drop away sharply from the past season’s      Oilmeals cheaper too
some of the speculative money on board in           unusually large 7m, probably to about half            Since our last review, soya meal prices have
the Chicago futures market (although much           that level.                                        come down by about 15% on the US market,
of it jumped ship on the most recent price                                                             putting them about 26% below their August
drop in November).
   Another restraint on maize prices is the
                                                    FACTORS IN THE MONTHS AHEAD                        highs and at their cheapest level since June
                                                                                                       last year. Meal prices have fallen as soyabean
relatively looser foreign supply. Thanks to         • China’s maize ‘deficit’ remains a live issue.    supply prospects have improved – the lifting
record crops in the former Soviet Union and           If maize prices fall further it may take a lot   of a threat of tight US end-season stocks and
expected big harvests in South America next           more imported maize after all – bullish for      a far better outlook than expected for the
year (not to mention the EU’s own record              prices                                           coming Latin American crops.




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                                                                                                                                                         Shipunloaders & Shiploaders    NEXT PAGE
                                                                                                COMMODITIES                                                Perfection in grain milling – a highly demanding task. Antares sets new standards
     Although USDA is currently predicting world    their meal production up amid the smaller           • Relative soya/maize prices & weather when        for round-the-clock milling. The self-contained roll pack and reliable product
  soyabean production about 5m tonnes lower         2012 crop.                                            the US plants next spring
  for 2011/12, the gap may shrink if the South          At this early stage, some pundits are looking   • EU winter rapeseed plantings - up or down        feed ensure precise and consistent flour. Maximum hygiene is guaranteed thanks
  American crops exceed current forecasts           for modest growth in next year’s US soyabean          for 2012?
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                                                    but too much




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  – it would not be surprising to see more than     states.
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                                                    FACTORS
  supplies by about 8m or so. About half of         IN THE                                                                                                                                                                                                         Compact dimension. Four-roller mill
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   with roll length of 600 mm
  that increase is expected to be consumed
  within China, 1m tonnes or so within the          MONTHS
  EU, 500,000 in Brazil, the rest spread over a
  number of smaller users.
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     Higher EU soya meal usage is replacing • Latin American
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  crop cut domestic rapemeal production.                 weather
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     Globally there
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             November - December        2011
                                                                                                                                   •	 See	the	full	issue
                                                                                      In this issue:

                                    •    African
                                         advances
                                         Animal feed milling
                                         is one of the most
                                                                                      •

                                                                                      •
                                                                                            Mycotoxins
                                                                                            an overview
                                                                                            Database for
                                                                                            animal diet
                                                                                                                                   •	   Visit	the	GFMT	website
                                         buoyant activities in                              formulation
                                         the agri related field                             techniques:
                                                                                            A glance to last



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                                    •    Optical sorting


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