A B C D E F G H I J K
1 Survival Analysis
2
3 Model inputs:
4 Survival = 0.9
5 Total sample = 25
6 Prob. of censor = 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
7
8 Day
9 Individual 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 1 1 1 1 1 D
11 2 D
12 3 1 1 1 C
13 4 1 1 1 1 1 C
14 5 1 1 C
15 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
16 7 1 1 1 D
17 8 1 1 1 C
18 9 1 1 1 1 D
19 10 1 1 1 1 D
20 11 1 1 C
21 12 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D
22 13 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 C
23 14 1 1 1 1 D
24 15 1 1 1 1 1 D
25 16 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 D
26 17 1 1 C
27 18 1 1 1 1 1 C
28 19 D
29 20 1 C
30 21 D
31 22 D
32 23 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
33 24 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
34 25 1 1 D
35 # at risk 25 21 20 16 13 9 6 6 4 3
36 # deaths 4 0 1 1 4 1 0 1 1 0
37 # censored 0 1 3 2 0 2 0 1 0 0
38 Conditional P c 0.84 1 0.95 0.938 0.692 0.889 1 0.833 0.75 1
39 Unconditional P u 0.84 0.84 0.798 0.748 0.518 0.46 0.46 0.384 0.288 0.288
40 Expected survival 0.9 0.81 0.729 0.656 0.59 0.531 0.478 0.43 0.387 0.349
41 Daily survival 0.84 0.917 0.928 0.93 0.877 0.879 0.895 0.887 0.871 0.883
42
43
A B C D E F G H I J K
44 Daily Survival Expected P u
45 0.1 0.1 0.01 0.001 1E-04 1E-05 1E-06 1E-07 1E-08 1E-09 1E-10
46 0.2 0.2 0.04 0.008 0.002 3E-04 6E-05 1E-05 3E-06 5E-07 1E-07
47 0.3 0.3 0.09 0.027 0.008 0.002 7E-04 2E-04 7E-05 2E-05 6E-06
48 0.4 0.4 0.16 0.064 0.026 0.01 0.004 0.002 7E-04 3E-04 1E-04
49 0.5 0.5 0.25 0.125 0.063 0.031 0.016 0.008 0.004 0.002 1E-03
50 0.6 0.6 0.36 0.216 0.13 0.078 0.047 0.028 0.017 0.01 0.006
51 0.7 0.7 0.49 0.343 0.24 0.168 0.118 0.082 0.058 0.04 0.028
52 0.8 0.8 0.64 0.512 0.41 0.328 0.262 0.21 0.168 0.134 0.107
53 0.9 0.9 0.81 0.729 0.656 0.59 0.531 0.478 0.43 0.387 0.349
54
55
56 1
57 0.9
58 dse = 0.1
0.8
59 0.2
60 0.7
0.3
Expected Pu
61 0.6 0.4
62 0.5 0.5
63 0.4 0.6
64 0.7
0.3
65 56
0.8
66 0.2 57
0.9
67 0.1 58
68 0 59
69 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 60
70 Day 61
71 62
72 63
73 64
74 65
75 66
76 67
77 68
78 69
79 70
80 71
81 72
82 73
83 74
84 75
85 76
86 77
A B C D E F G H I J K
87 78
88 79
89 80
90 81
91 82
92 83
93 84
94 85
95 86
96 87
97 88
98 89
99 90
100 91
101 92
102 93
103 94
104 95
105 96
106 97
107 98
108 99
109 100
110 average
111 stdev
L M N O P Q R S T
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 Trial Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7
10 1 0.96 0.96 0.853333 0.746667 0.56 0.56 0.497778
11 2 0.84 0.795789 0.696316 0.642753 0.578478 0.578478 0.578478
12 3 1 0.869565 0.815217 0.706522 0.642292 0.570927 0.499561
13 (Survival to Day X) over 100 Trials
Unconditional Pu0.92 0.868889 0.814583 0.678819 0.377122 0.377122
4 0.377122
14 5 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.754286 0.754286 0.754286 0.502857
15 1 6 0.88 0.782222 0.782222 0.782222 0.684444 0.57037 0.57037
16 0.9 7 1 1 0.952381 0.896359 0.836601 0.772247 0.772247
17 0.8 8 1 0.954545 0.954545 0.775568 0.710938 0.710938 0.710938
18 0.7 9 0.88 0.833684 0.778105 0.778105 0.778105 0.700295 0.700295
19 0.6 10 1 0.956522 0.819876 0.819876 0.768634 0.768634 0.709508
Average
20 0.5 11 0.92 0.832381 0.693651 0.630592 0.567532 0.496591 0.496591
21 0.4 12 1 0.857143 0.857143 0.857143 0.714286 0.510204 0.382653
22 0.3 13 1 0.956522 0.956522 0.805492 0.751793 0.615103 0.615103
23 0.2 14 0.92 0.874 0.822588 0.759312 0.621255 0.465942 0.465942
24 0.1 15 1 0.857143 0.857143 0.785714 0.707143 0.707143 0.606122
25 0 16 0.88 0.77 0.77 0.705833 0.494083 0.494083 0.494083
26 1 17 2 3 14 0.857143 0.696429 0.696429 9
5 6 7 8 0.541667 0.541667
10 0.451389
27 18 0.92 0.8
Day 0.8 0.72 0.617143 0.617143 0.617143
28 19 0.88 0.88 0.782222 0.66188 0.66188 0.66188 0.66188
29 20 0.92 0.752727 0.501818 0.501818 0.439091 0.439091 0.439091
30 21 0.96 0.868571 0.868571 0.806531 0.73321 0.73321 0.73321
31 1 22 0.88 0.88 0.715 0.715 0.655417 0.53625 0.3575
32 0.9 23 0.92 0.817778 0.759365 0.683429 0.531556 0.531556 0.398667
33 24 0.96 0.777143 0.717363 0.538022 0.461162 0.461162 0.461162
0.8
34 25 0.92 0.87619 0.82465 0.761215 0.592056 0.592056 0.507477
Probability of survival
0.7 26 0.88 0.776471 0.776471 0.665546 0.544538 0.453782 0.453782
35
36 0.6 27 0.634435 0.576759
0.96 0.876522 0.793043 0.793043 Conditional Pc 0.576759
37 0.5 28 0.88 0.812308 Pu
0.88 0.812308 0.812308 Unconditional 0.812308 0.696264
38 0.4 29 0.609024 0.609024
0.96 0.829091 0.78303 0.730828 Expected survival 0.609024
39 30 0.96 0.864 0.6912 0.628364 0.628364 0.628364 0.418909
0.3
40 31 0.88 0.79619 0.707725 0.598844 0.598844 0.53896 0.53896
41 0.2 32 0.92 0.794545 0.747807 0.690284 0.575237 0.575237 0.575237
42 0.1 33 0.96 0.834783 0.793043 0.746394 0.746394 0.746394 0.671754
43 0 34 1 0.958333 0.8625 0.6325 0.575 0.383333 0.319444
L 0 M N O P Q R S T
44 1 352 3 5 7
4 0.88 6 0.792 80.698824
9 10 0.640588 0.524118 0.465882 0.465882
45 36 0.92 0.794545
Day 0.695227 0.695227 0.568822 0.568822 0.50562
46 37 0.88 0.733333 0.733333 0.620513 0.558462 0.478681 0.478681
47 38 0.88 0.838095 0.785714 0.673469 0.471429 0.471429 0.471429
48 39 0.92 0.88 0.836 0.786824 0.665774 0.665774 0.665774
49 40 1 0.913043 0.816934 0.768879 0.768879 0.768879 0.659039
50 41 0.92 0.832381 0.772925 0.695633 0.61834 0.353337 0.353337
51 42 0.88 0.754286 0.754286 0.754286 0.638242 0.638242 0.58022
52 43 0.84 0.84 0.793333 0.740444 0.683487 0.569573 0.512615
53 44 0.96 0.912 0.804706 0.747227 0.684958 0.684958 0.489256
54 45 0.96 0.834783 0.742029 0.68495 0.622682 0.622682 0.467011
55 46 0.96 0.872727 0.785455 0.610909 0.56 0.509091 0.452525
56 47 0.92 0.823158 0.720263 0.600219 0.600219 0.600219 0.600219
57 48 0.96 0.858947 0.751579 0.688947 0.551158 0.393684 0.393684
dse =58
0.1 49 0.88 0.836 0.836 0.776286 0.776286 0.776286 0.776286
59 50 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.797333 0.652364 0.652364 0.652364
60 51 0.96 0.829091 0.829091 0.701538 0.701538 0.62359 0.519658
61 52 0.88 0.88 0.724706 0.652235 0.652235 0.652235 0.407647
62 53 0.88 0.833684 0.694737 0.648421 0.530526 0.530526 0.530526
63 54 0.96 0.868571 0.817479 0.759088 0.759088 0.759088 0.69008
64 55 0.96 0.912 0.816 0.612 0.561 0.4488 0.320571
65 56 0.92 0.87619 0.830075 0.711493 0.582131 0.582131 0.582131
66 57 0.92 0.92 0.865882 0.703529 0.511658 0.511658 0.292376
67 58 0.96 0.829091 0.731551 0.731551 0.731551 0.665046 0.665046
68 59 0.92 0.87619 0.730159 0.62585 0.455164 0.341373 0.284477
69 60 0.96 0.914286 0.8 0.666667 0.666667 0.6 0.6
70 61 0.8 0.755556 0.604444 0.604444 0.537284 0.460529 0.460529
71 62 0.96 0.872727 0.82139 0.76272 0.69916 0.69916 0.611765
72 63 0.92 0.782 0.729867 0.6256 0.511855 0.511855 0.511855
73 64 0.92 0.752727 0.652364 0.652364 0.533752 0.533752 0.400314
74 65 1 0.875 0.765625 0.696023 0.696023 0.696023 0.580019
75 66 0.88 0.838095 0.733333 0.733333 0.733333 0.733333 0.733333
76 67 0.96 0.96 0.9 0.78 0.585 0.585 0.501429
77 68 0.92 0.766667 0.707692 0.619231 0.516026 0.516026 0.516026
78 69 0.84 0.756 0.622588 0.622588 0.518824 0.363176 0.207529
79 70 1 1 0.9 0.85 0.789286 0.667857 0.667857
80 71 0.88 0.748 0.648267 0.5304 0.4641 0.4641 0.4641
81 72 0.92 0.87619 0.87619 0.87619 0.741392 0.667253 0.667253
82 73 0.92 0.87619 0.773109 0.773109 0.695798 0.695798 0.608824
83 74 0.84 0.618947 0.618947 0.567368 0.567368 0.496447 0.354605
84 75 0.96 0.8 0.711111 0.646465 0.430976 0.430976 0.430976
85 76 0.96 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.763636 0.678788
86 77 0.88 0.88 0.828235 0.828235 0.745412 0.652235 0.465882
L M N O P Q R S T
87 78 0.92 0.87619 0.730159 0.669312 0.547619 0.547619 0.486772
88 79 0.92 0.828 0.77625 0.716538 0.573231 0.573231 0.573231
89 80 0.88 0.79619 0.707725 0.707725 0.55607 0.505518 0.39318
90 81 1 0.954545 0.848485 0.666667 0.666667 0.606061 0.530303
91 82 0.92 0.92 0.726316 0.622556 0.498045 0.498045 0.426896
92 83 0.84 0.735 0.678462 0.678462 0.603077 0.603077 0.603077
93 84 0.88 0.72 0.64 0.548571 0.398961 0.341967 0.341967
94 85 0.96 0.872727 0.872727 0.775758 0.664935 0.609524 0.554113
95 86 0.92 0.836364 0.789899 0.789899 0.546853 0.341783 0.273427
96 87 0.88 0.836 0.836 0.716571 0.597143 0.597143 0.597143
97 88 0.92 0.788571 0.722857 0.657143 0.657143 0.547619 0.547619
98 89 0.84 0.746667 0.647111 0.452978 0.452978 0.362382 0.362382
99 90 0.88 0.836 0.737647 0.737647 0.639294 0.639294 0.523059
100 91 0.92 0.832381 0.832381 0.763016 0.763016 0.593457 0.593457
101 92 0.88 0.833684 0.686563 0.633751 0.475313 0.475313 0.407411
102 93 0.96 0.829091 0.621818 0.57 0.513 0.448875 0.448875
103 94 0.92 0.817778 0.708741 0.654222 0.594747 0.594747 0.594747
104 95 0.92 0.87619 0.830075 0.726316 0.622556 0.452768 0.388087
105 96 0.8 0.705882 0.651584 0.597285 0.597285 0.53092 0.53092
106 97 0.92 0.836364 0.794545 0.645568 0.595909 0.595909 0.595909
107 98 0.76 0.72 0.677647 0.632471 0.562196 0.491922 0.491922
108 99 1 0.916667 0.916667 0.723684 0.612348 0.476271 0.396892
109 100 1 0.833333 0.787037 0.688657 0.550926 0.48206 0.48206
110 average 0.9232 0.84368 0.772563 0.699847 0.61496 0.568775 0.518883
111 stdev 0.025691252 0.033897 0.042286 0.041732 0.050669 0.056722 0.059984
U V W
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 Day 8 Day 9 Day 10
10 0.414815 0.331852 0.165926
11 0.578478 0.462782 0.462782
12 0.428195 0.342556 0.256917
13 0.377122 0.377122 0.377122
14 0.502857 0.402286 0.402286
15 0.57037 0.57037 0.57037
16 0.695023 0.695023 0.595734
17 0.710938 0.533203 0.533203
18 0.700295 0.583579 0.583579
19 0.580506 0.580506 0.483755
20 0.496591 0.496591 0.496591
21 0.255102 0.255102 0.255102
22 0.546758 0.478413 0.410069
23 0.465942 0.155314 0.155314
24 0.606122 0.484898 0.484898
25 0.494083 0.370563 0.370563
26 0.451389 0.451389 0.300926
27 0.617143 0.617143 0.617143
28 0.66188 0.567326 0.567326
29 0.439091 0.439091 0.351273
30 0.439926 0.439926 0.439926
31 0.3575 0.3575 0.286
32 0.398667 0.398667 0.265778
33 0.461162 0.461162 0.461162
34 0.507477 0.507477 0.507477
35 0.453782 0.453782 0.453782
36 0.512675 0.512675 0.512675
37 0.696264 0.696264 0.417758
38 0.52202 0.435017 0.348013
39 0.335127 0.335127 0.335127
40 0.53896 0.384971 0.307977
41 0.575237 0.575237 0.479364
42 0.587785 0.419847 0.419847
43 0.239583 0.239583 0.239583
U V W
44 0.465882 0.465882 0.349412
45 0.442417 0.368681 0.294945
46 0.319121 0.319121 0.319121
47 0.471429 0.471429 0.471429
48 0.591799 0.591799 0.422713
49 0.599126 0.599126 0.513537
50 0.353337 0.235558 0.235558
51 0.58022 0.58022 0.58022
52 0.448538 0.448538 0.373782
53 0.489256 0.489256 0.366942
54 0.467011 0.467011 0.467011
55 0.452525 0.339394 0.339394
56 0.480175 0.320117 0.160058
57 0.393684 0.393684 0.393684
58 0.776286 0.776286 0.776286
59 0.652364 0.652364 0.652364
60 0.519658 0.519658 0.519658
61 0.407647 0.407647 0.244588
62 0.530526 0.530526 0.530526
63 0.536729 0.429383 0.429383
64 0.320571 0.320571 0.320571
65 0.582131 0.436598 0.436598
66 0.292376 0.292376 0.292376
67 0.332523 0.166262 0.166262
68 0.284477 0.213358 0.213358
69 0.45 0.45 0.45
70 0.230265 0.230265 0.115132
71 0.52437 0.52437 0.52437
72 0.511855 0.383891 0.383891
73 0.400314 0.400314 0.400314
74 0.464015 0.309343 0.154672
75 0.733333 0.733333 0.733333
76 0.501429 0.501429 0.501429
77 0.516026 0.516026 0.516026
78 0.103765 0.103765 0.103765
79 0.519444 0.519444 0.43287
80 0.3094 0.3094 0.3094
81 0.667253 0.667253 0.667253
82 0.507353 0.507353 0.380515
83 0.354605 0.354605 0.354605
84 0.430976 0.430976 0.323232
85 0.593939 0.593939 0.593939
86 0.372706 0.279529 0.186353
U V W
87 0.486772 0.486772 0.486772
88 0.477692 0.286615 0.286615
89 0.39318 0.39318 0.39318
90 0.530303 0.530303 0.318182
91 0.284597 0.284597 0.284597
92 0.502564 0.502564 0.502564
93 0.341967 0.227978 0.227978
94 0.492544 0.422181 0.337745
95 0.273427 0.273427 0.136713
96 0.597143 0.597143 0.597143
97 0.410714 0.410714 0.410714
98 0.362382 0.271787 0.271787
99 0.523059 0.523059 0.523059
100 0.593457 0.593457 0.593457
101 0.203706 0.203706 0.203706
102 0.374063 0.374063 0.374063
103 0.594747 0.594747 0.594747
104 0.323406 0.323406 0.323406
105 0.379229 0.303383 0.303383
106 0.446932 0.297955 0.297955
107 0.491922 0.368941 0.368941
108 0.396892 0.396892 0.396892
109 0.321373 0.321373 0.321373
110 0.470018 0.430507 0.394712
111 0.062655 0.06696 0.070393