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Appendix 3, BSE Risk Assessment

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Appendix 3, BSE Risk Assessment Powered By Docstoc
					Appendix 3 Numerical Stability of Simulation Output

The tables in this appendix report the central estimate and the 95% confidence interval (2.5th percentile and 97.5th percentile) for each output summary statistic (mean, and percentiles: 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th). The two summary statistics analyzed here are 1) the number of additional infected cattle (i.e., cattle infected after the initial introduction into the U.S. of 500 infected cattle) and 2) the amount of BSE infectivity (quantified as cattle oral ID50s) in food potentially available for human consumption. The confidence intervals were computed for each set of 50,000 simulation trials using SAS procedure UNIVARIATE, option ciquantdf (SAS version 9.1 for Windows, Cary NC).

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Simulation Confidence Intervals for 50,000 Runs: 
 Range for Number of Additional Infected Cattle: 0.025 to 0.975 

Scenario
1 Base Case 500 	

Statistic Mean
178 179 180 178 179 180 178 179 180 34.9 35 35.2 172 173 174 178 179 180 177 178 179 177 178 179 178 179 180 177 178 179 178 179 180 201 202 203

5th
33 33 34 33 33 34 33 33 34 19 19 19 32 32 32 33 33 33 33 33 34 33 33 34 33 33 34 33 33 34 33 33 34 38 38 39

25th 50th 75th
97 98 99 97 98 99 96 97 98 25 25 25 90 92 93 96 98 99 95 97 98 96 97 98 96 97 98 95 96 98 97 98 99 111 112 113 154 156 158 154 156 158 155 157 159 30 30 30 146 148 149 154 156 157 153 155 156 153 155 156 154 155 157 154 155 157 154 156 157 181 183 184 241 243 246 241 244 246 242 244 246 38 38 38 232 234 237 243 245 247 240 242 244 240 242 244 241 243 245 240 242 244 241 243 245 272 274 276

95th
396 400 403 393 396 400 396 400 404 71 71 72 385 388 392 397 400 403 391 395 399 394 397 400 396 400 404 397 401 404 395 399 403 436 440 443

Lower Central Upper . 2.1.1 	FDA 1 Lower Central Upper . 2.1.2 	FDA 2 Lower Central Upper . 2.2.1 	IntComm 1 Lower Central Upper . 2.2.2 	IntComm 2 Lower Central Upper . 2.3.1 	USDA A Lower Central Upper . 2.3.2 	USDA B Lower Central Upper . 2.3.3 	USDA C Lower Central Upper . 2.3.4 	USDA A and B Lower Central Upper . 2.3.5 	USDA A and C Lower Central Upper . 2.3.6 	USDA B and C Lower Central Upper . 3.1	 Sensitivity 1 Lower Central Upper . 3.2	 Sensitivity 2 Lower Central Upper . 3.3	 Sensitivity 3 Lower Central Upper

2,600 1,150 1,880 2,500 3,210 4,380 2,610 1,160 1,890 2,510 3,230 4,410 2,620 1,170 1,900 2,520 3,240 4,440 241 242 244 37 38 39 124 125 125 211 213 215 327 329 332 520 525 529

Simulation Confidence Intervals for 50,000 Runs: 
 Range for Number of Additional Infected Cattle: 0.025 to 0.975 

Scenario
3.4	 Sensitivity 4

Statistic Mean
. Lower Central Upper . Lower Central Upper . Lower Central Upper Lower Central Upper Lower Central Upper 178 179 180 188 189 190 42.5 42.8 43.2 177 178 179 177 178 179

5th
32 33 33 35 36 36 6 6 7 32 33 33 33 33 33

25th 50th 75th
96 97 98 103 104 105 13 13 13 96 97 98 96 97 98 154 155 157 168 169 171 24 24 24 153 155 156 154 156 157 241 243 245 257 258 260 59 60 61 240 242 244 240 242 244

95th
396 399 403 414 418 421 126 127 129 394 398 402 394 397 401

3.5	 Sensitivity 5

3.6	 Sensitivity 6

3.7	 Sensitivity 7

3.8	 Sensitivity 8

Simulation Confidence Intervals for 50,000 Runs: 
 Range for Cattle Oral ID50s Potentially Available to Humans: 0.025 to 0.975 

Scenario
1 Base Case 500

Statistic Mean
Lower Central Upper . Lower Central Upper . Lower Central Upper . Lower Central Upper . Lower Central Upper . Lower Central Upper . Lower Central Upper . Lower Central Upper . Lower Central Upper . Lower Central Upper . Lower Central Upper . Lower Central Upper . Lower Central Upper . Lower Central Upper 3,760 3,780 3,800 3,750 3,770 3,790 3,760 3,780 3,800 9.71 9.76 9.81 3,740 3,750 3,770 3,710 3,730 3,750 10.4 10.6 10.8 2,170 2,180 2,200 9.83 10 10.2 2,150 2,170 2,180 9.77 10.1 10.4 3,820 3,840 3,860 8,990 9,030 9,060 3,930 3,950 3,970

5th
1,580 1,590 1,610 1,580 1,590 1,600 1,580 1,590 1,600 2.68 2.73 2.76 1,580 1,590 1,600 1,560 1,580 1,590 2.69 2.73 2.78 442 449 456 2.66 2.71 2.75 444 453 461 2.68 2.72 2.76 1,620 1,630 1,640 4,210 4,240 4,270 1,680 1,690 1,700

25th
2,390 2,400 2,410 2,380 2,390 2,400 2,390 2,400 2,410 5.67 5.72 5.76 2,370 2,380 2,390 2,350 2,370 2,380 5.73 5.78 5.82 955 963 969 5.63 5.68 5.72 944 953 961 5.7 5.75 5.79 2,430 2,440 2,460 6,300 6,330 6,360 2,520 2,530 2,540

50th
3,180 3,190 3,210 3,180 3,190 3,210 3,190 3,200 3,220 8.44 8.49 8.55 3,160 3,180 3,190 3,130 3,150 3,170 8.55 8.59 8.65 1,560 1,570 1,580 8.4 8.45 8.5 1,550 1,560 1,570 8.48 8.53 8.57 3,240 3,250 3,270 8,260 8,300 8,340 3,360 3,370 3,390

75th
4,410 4,440 4,470 4,400 4,430 4,460 4,410 4,440 4,470 12.1 12.2 12.3 4,380 4,410 4,440 4,360 4,390 4,420 12.1 12.2 12.3 2,570 2,600 2,630 11.9 11.9 12 2,530 2,550 2,580 12 12 12.1 4,490 4,510 4,540 10,900 11,000 11,000 4,640 4,670 4,700

95th
8,580 8,660 8,770 8,500 8,610 8,730 8,560 8,680 8,760 21.3 21.7 22 8,500 8,600 8,710 8,430 8,540 8,650 19.8 20 20.2 6,930 7,030 7,120 19.4 19.6 19.8 6,950 7,060 7,140 19.2 19.3 19.5 8,630 8,750 8,850 16,200 16,300 16,400 8,730 8,830 8,920

2.1.1 FDA 01

2.1.2 FDA 02

2.2.1 IntComm 01

2.2.2 IntComm 02

2.3.1 USDA A

2.3.2 USDA B

2.3.3 USDA C

2.3.4 USDA A and B

2.3.5 USDA A and C

2.3.6 USDA B and C

3.1

Sensitivity 1

3.2

Sensitivity 2

3.3

Sensitivity 3

Simulation Confidence Intervals for 50,000 Runs: 
 Range for Cattle Oral ID50s Potentially Available to Humans: 0.025 to 0.975 

Scenario
3.4	 Sensitivity 4

Statistic Mean
. Lower Central Upper . Lower Central Upper . Lower Central Upper Lower Central Upper Lower Central Upper 4,440 4,460 4,480 6,540 6,570 6,600 1,890 1,900 1,910 3,760 3,780 3,800 3,790 3,810 3,830

5th
1,980 2,000 2,020 2,980 3,010 3,030 639 646 655 1,590 1,600 1,620 1,600 1,610 1,620

25th
2,960 2,970 2,990 4,330 4,350 4,370 1,110 1,120 1,120 2,390 2,400 2,410 2,400 2,410 2,430

50th
3,880 3,890 3,910 5,680 5,710 5,740 1,550 1,550 1,560 3,180 3,190 3,200 3,200 3,220 3,230

75th
5,230 5,260 5,290 7,810 7,860 7,910 2,170 2,180 2,200 4,390 4,420 4,440 4,430 4,460 4,480

95th
9,290 9,390 9,500 12,800 12,900 13,000 4,320 4,380 4,440 8,560 8,660 8,750 8,670 8,770 8,870

3.5	 Sensitivity 5

3.6	 Sensitivity 6

3.7	 Sensitivity 7

3.8	 Sensitivity 8


				
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