Invest by xiuliliaofz

VIEWS: 3 PAGES: 4

									         A           B           C          D         E          F           G         H            I           J          K          L          M          N
 1 Investment example
 2
 3 Initial cash $100,000
 4
 5 Probability distributions (lookup tables)
 6    Lookup table following decrease              Lookup table following increase               Lookup table following no change
 7 Cum prob         Change                        Cum prob     Change                           Cum prob     Change
 8         0.00           -2                          0.00            -2                             0.00           -2
 9         0.20           -1                          0.10            -1                             0.15           -1
10         0.45            0                          0.25             0                             0.35            0
11         0.75            1                          0.55             1                             0.65            1
12         0.90            2                          0.80             2                             0.85            2
13
                                          Current Previous                            Current                                        Current
                   Previous Change in      share    shares      Shares       Shares   shares     Previous   Change in    Current     worth of Cumulative Random
14          Day share price share price     price    owned          sold purchased     owned         cash        cash       cash      shares   gain/loss   number
15            1         $50        ($1)     $49          0             0        500      500    ########    ($24,500)   $75,500     $24,500          $0 0.295665
16            2         $49        ($1)     $48        500             0         50      550     $75,500     ($2,400)   $73,100     $26,400       ($500) 0.447913
17            3         $48         $1      $49        550             0          0      550     $73,100          $0    $73,100     $26,950         $50 0.836116
18            4         $49         $2      $51        550            55          0      495     $73,100      $2,805    $75,905     $25,245      $1,150 0.939342
19            5         $51         $2      $53        495          124           0      371     $75,905      $6,572    $82,477     $19,663      $2,140 0.958493
20            6         $53         $1      $54        371            93          0      278     $82,477      $5,022    $87,499     $15,012      $2,511 0.743007
21            7         $54         $0      $54        278             0          0      278     $87,499          $0    $87,499     $15,012      $2,511 0.295482
22            8         $54         $2      $56        278             0          0      278     $87,499          $0    $87,499     $15,568      $3,067 0.936117
23            9         $56         $1      $57        278            28          0      250     $87,499      $1,596    $89,095     $14,250      $3,345 0.618747
24           10         $57         $0      $57        250             0          0      250     $89,095          $0    $89,095     $14,250      $3,345   0.26106
25           11         $57         $2      $59        250             0          0      250     $89,095          $0    $89,095     $14,750      $3,845 0.952068
26           12         $59         $0      $59        250             0          0      250     $89,095          $0    $89,095     $14,750      $3,845   0.30923
27           13         $59         $2      $61        250             0          0      250     $89,095          $0    $89,095     $15,250      $4,345 0.981931
28           14         $61         $0      $61        250             0          0      250     $89,095          $0    $89,095     $15,250      $4,345   0.39265
29           15         $61         $0      $61        250             0          0      250     $89,095          $0    $89,095     $15,250      $4,345 0.499184
30           16         $61         $0      $61        250             0          0      250     $89,095          $0    $89,095     $15,250      $4,345 0.435649
31           17         $61        ($2)     $59        250             0          0      250     $89,095          $0    $89,095     $14,750      $3,845 0.143737
32           18         $59        ($1)     $58        250             0         25      275     $89,095     ($1,450)   $87,645     $15,950      $3,595   0.28219
33           19         $58        ($1)     $57        275             0         69      344     $87,645     ($3,933)   $83,712     $19,608      $3,320 0.441452
34           20         $57        ($1)     $56        344             0         86      430     $83,712     ($4,816)   $78,896     $24,080      $2,976 0.282738
35           21         $56         $1      $57        430             0          0      430     $78,896          $0    $78,896     $24,510      $3,406 0.844039
36           22         $57         $0      $57        430             0          0      430     $78,896          $0    $78,896     $24,510      $3,406 0.308425
37           23         $57         $1      $58        430             0          0      430     $78,896          $0    $78,896     $24,940      $3,836    0.8359
38           24         $58         $1      $59        430            43          0      387     $78,896      $2,537    $81,433     $22,833      $4,266 0.693828
39           25         $59        ($2)     $57        387             0          0      387     $81,433          $0    $81,433     $22,059      $3,492 0.074184
40           26         $57         $0      $57        387             0          0      387     $81,433          $0    $81,433     $22,059      $3,492 0.596865
41           27         $57        ($2)     $55        387             0          0      387     $81,433          $0    $81,433     $21,285      $2,718 0.058696
42           28         $55         $1      $56        387             0          0      387     $81,433          $0    $81,433     $21,672      $3,105 0.856257
43           29         $56        ($1)     $55        387             0          0      387     $81,433          $0    $81,433     $21,285      $2,718 0.168392
44           30         $55        ($2)     $53        387             0         39      426     $81,433     ($2,067)   $79,366     $22,578      $1,944 0.032677
45           31         $53        ($1)     $52        426             0        107      533     $79,366     ($5,564)   $73,802     $27,716      $1,518 0.351852
46           32         $52         $0      $52        533             0          0      533     $73,802          $0    $73,802     $27,716      $1,518 0.555496
47           33         $52         $1      $53        533             0          0      533     $73,802          $0    $73,802     $28,249      $2,051 0.725703
48           34         $53        ($2)     $51        533             0          0      533     $73,802          $0    $73,802     $27,183        $985 0.010958
49           35         $51        ($1)     $50        533             0         53      586     $73,802     ($2,650)   $71,152     $29,300        $452 0.215836
50           36         $50        ($2)     $48        586             0        147      733     $71,152     ($7,056)   $64,096     $35,184       ($720) 0.113479
51           37         $48        ($2)     $46        733             0        183      916     $64,096     ($8,418)   $55,678     $42,136     ($2,186) 0.192113
52           38         $46        ($2)     $44        916             0        229     1145     $55,678    ($10,076)   $45,602     $50,380     ($4,018) 0.15966
53           39         $44         $1      $45       1145             0          0     1145     $45,602          $0    $45,602     $51,525     ($2,873) 0.885027
54           40         $45         $2      $47       1145          115           0     1030     $45,602      $5,405    $51,007     $48,410       ($583) 0.894322
55           41         $47         $1      $48       1030          258           0      772     $51,007     $12,384    $63,391     $37,056        $447 0.685802
56           42         $48         $0      $48        772             0          0      772     $63,391          $0    $63,391     $37,056        $447 0.457364
57           43         $48        ($1)     $47        772             0          0      772     $63,391          $0    $63,391     $36,284       ($325) 0.298734
58           44         $47        ($2)     $45        772             0         77      849     $63,391     ($3,465)   $59,926     $38,205     ($1,869) 0.094938
59           45         $45         $0      $45        849             0          0      849     $59,926          $0    $59,926     $38,205     ($1,869) 0.672113
60           46         $45         $0      $45        849             0          0      849     $59,926          $0    $59,926     $38,205     ($1,869) 0.361101
61           47         $45         $0      $45        849             0          0      849     $59,926          $0    $59,926     $38,205     ($1,869) 0.36521
62           48         $45         $0      $45        849             0          0      849     $59,926          $0    $59,926     $38,205     ($1,869) 0.540239
63           49         $45         $0      $45        849             0          0      849     $59,926          $0    $59,926     $38,205     ($1,869) 0.539358
64           50         $45         $2      $47        849             0          0      849     $59,926          $0    $59,926     $39,903       ($171) 0.85528
65           51         $47         $2      $49        849            85          0      764     $59,926      $4,165    $64,091     $37,436      $1,527 0.995271
66           52         $49         $0      $49        764             0          0      764     $64,091          $0    $64,091     $37,436      $1,527 0.500433
67           53         $49         $0      $49        764             0          0      764     $64,091          $0    $64,091     $37,436      $1,527 0.534054
68           54         $49        ($2)     $47        764             0          0      764     $64,091          $0    $64,091     $35,908         ($1) 0.026169
69           55         $47         $2      $49        764             0          0      764     $64,091          $0    $64,091     $37,436      $1,527 0.960474
70           56         $49         $1      $50        764            76          0      688     $64,091      $3,800    $67,891     $34,400      $2,291 0.767018
71           57         $50         $0      $50        688             0          0      688     $67,891          $0    $67,891     $34,400      $2,291 0.460534
72           58         $50        ($1)     $49        688             0          0      688     $67,891          $0    $67,891     $33,712      $1,603 0.242858
73           59         $49        ($2)     $47        688             0         69      757     $67,891     ($3,243)   $64,648     $35,579        $227 0.124678
74           60         $47        ($2)     $45        757             0        189      946     $64,648     ($8,505)   $56,143     $42,570     ($1,287) 0.026532
75           61         $45        ($1)     $44        946             0        237     1183     $56,143    ($10,428)   $45,715     $52,052     ($2,233) 0.411713
76           62         $44        ($1)     $43       1183             0        296     1479     $45,715    ($12,728)   $32,987     $63,597     ($3,416) 0.36466
77           63         $43        ($2)     $41       1479             0        370     1849     $32,987    ($15,170)   $17,817     $75,809     ($6,374) 0.029239
78           64         $41         $0      $41       1849             0          0     1849     $17,817          $0    $17,817     $75,809     ($6,374) 0.748959
79           65         $41         $1      $42       1849             0          0     1849     $17,817          $0    $17,817     $77,658     ($4,525) 0.819633
80           66         $42         $0      $42       1849             0          0     1849     $17,817          $0    $17,817     $77,658     ($4,525) 0.444991
81           67         $42         $0      $42       1849             0          0     1849     $17,817          $0    $17,817     $77,658     ($4,525) 0.586849
82           68         $42         $2      $44       1849             0          0     1849     $17,817          $0    $17,817     $81,356       ($827) 0.864369
83           69         $44         $0      $44       1849             0          0     1849     $17,817          $0    $17,817     $81,356       ($827) 0.422939
84           70         $44         $1      $45       1849             0          0     1849     $17,817          $0    $17,817     $83,205      $1,022 0.758919
85           71         $45         $2      $47       1849          185           0     1664     $17,817      $8,695    $26,512     $78,208      $4,720 0.947805
86           72         $47         $2      $49       1664          416           0     1248     $26,512     $20,384    $46,896     $61,152      $8,048 0.920719
87           73         $49         $2      $51       1248          312           0      936     $46,896     $15,912    $62,808     $47,736    $10,544 0.923065
88           74         $51         $0      $51        936             0          0      936     $62,808          $0    $62,808     $47,736    $10,544 0.539055
89           75         $51        ($1)     $50        936             0          0      936     $62,808          $0    $62,808     $46,800      $9,608 0.285704
90
91 Data table to replicate gain/loss over 75 days           Frequency table
92 Replication   Gain/loss              Positive?                Value Frequency
93                  $9,608                                   ($10,000)            8
94            1   $10,007                       1             ($7,500)            4
95            2     $5,256                      1             ($5,000)            1
96            3     $1,232                      1             ($2,500)            0
97            4  ($32,799)                      0                    $0          11
98            5       $846                      1              $2,500            27
99            6     $7,399                      1              $5,000            26
100           7     $3,353                      1              $7,500            16
101           8  ($22,278)                      0             $10,000             2
102           9     $5,719                      1                                 5
103          10   $10,353                       1
190          97     $3,815                      1
191          98     $5,023                      1
192          99    ($8,360)                     0
193         100     $7,202                      1
194 Average           $785 % positive       76%
195 StDev           $8,055
196 Minimum      ($32,799)
197 Maximum       $14,766
                           Cumulative gain/loss time series for 75 days


                $12,000


                $10,000


                 $8,000


                 $6,000


                 $4,000
Cum gain/loss




                 $2,000


                     $0


                ($2,000)


                ($4,000)


                ($6,000)


                ($8,000)
                                                   Day
            30




            25




            20
Frequency




            15




            10




             5




             0
                 ($10,000)   ($7,500)   ($5,000)     ($2,500)     $0        $2,500     $5,000       $7,500   $10,000

                                                   Cumulative gain/loss (upper limit of category)
         A           B           C          D         E          F           G         H            I           J          K          L          M          N
 1 Investment example
 2
 3 Initial cash $100,000
 4
 5 Probability distributions (lookup tables)
 6    Lookup table following decrease              Lookup table following increase               Lookup table following no change
 7 Cum prob         Change                        Cum prob     Change                           Cum prob     Change
 8         0.00           -2                          0.00            -2                             0.00           -2
 9         0.20           -1                          0.10            -1                             0.15           -1
10         0.45            0                          0.25             0                             0.35            0
11         0.75            1                          0.55             1                             0.65            1
12         0.90            2                          0.80             2                             0.85            2
13
                                          Current Previous                            Current                                        Current
                   Previous Change in      share    shares      Shares       Shares   shares     Previous   Change in    Current     worth of Cumulative Random
14          Day share price share price     price    owned          sold purchased     owned         cash        cash       cash      shares   gain/loss   number
15            1         $50        ($2)     $48          0             0        500      500    ########    ($24,000)   $76,000     $24,000          $0 0.114837
16            2         $48        ($2)     $46        500             0         50      550     $76,000     ($2,300)   $73,700     $25,300     ($1,000) 0.028227
17            3         $46        ($1)     $45        550             0        138      688     $73,700     ($6,210)   $67,490     $30,960     ($1,550) 0.428447
18            4         $45         $2      $47        688             0          0      688     $67,490          $0    $67,490     $32,336       ($174) 0.991129
19            5         $47        ($2)     $45        688             0          0      688     $67,490          $0    $67,490     $30,960     ($1,550) 0.090257
20            6         $45         $0      $45        688             0          0      688     $67,490          $0    $67,490     $30,960     ($1,550) 0.626621
21            7         $45        ($1)     $44        688             0          0      688     $67,490          $0    $67,490     $30,272     ($2,238) 0.253885
22            8         $44         $0      $44        688             0          0      688     $67,490          $0    $67,490     $30,272     ($2,238) 0.619421
23            9         $44         $0      $44        688             0          0      688     $67,490          $0    $67,490     $30,272     ($2,238) 0.548954
24           10         $44         $0      $44        688             0          0      688     $67,490          $0    $67,490     $30,272     ($2,238) 0.48392
25           11         $44         $1      $45        688             0          0      688     $67,490          $0    $67,490     $30,960     ($1,550) 0.789099
26           12         $45         $2      $47        688            69          0      619     $67,490      $3,243    $70,733     $29,093       ($174) 0.951647
27           13         $47         $0      $47        619             0          0      619     $70,733          $0    $70,733     $29,093       ($174) 0.334811
28           14         $47         $0      $47        619             0          0      619     $70,733          $0    $70,733     $29,093       ($174) 0.388622
29           15         $47         $2      $49        619             0          0      619     $70,733          $0    $70,733     $30,331      $1,064 0.868324
30           16         $49        ($2)     $47        619             0          0      619     $70,733          $0    $70,733     $29,093       ($174) 0.018564
31           17         $47         $0      $47        619             0          0      619     $70,733          $0    $70,733     $29,093       ($174) 0.527754
32           18         $47        ($1)     $46        619             0          0      619     $70,733          $0    $70,733     $28,474       ($793) 0.278475
33           19         $46        ($2)     $44        619             0         62      681     $70,733     ($2,728)   $68,005     $29,964     ($2,031) 0.112955
34           20         $44         $0      $44        681             0          0      681     $68,005          $0    $68,005     $29,964     ($2,031) 0.545687
35           21         $44         $0      $44        681             0          0      681     $68,005          $0    $68,005     $29,964     ($2,031) 0.406403
36           22         $44         $0      $44        681             0          0      681     $68,005          $0    $68,005     $29,964     ($2,031) 0.495498
37           23         $44         $0      $44        681             0          0      681     $68,005          $0    $68,005     $29,964     ($2,031) 0.500234
38           24         $44        ($2)     $42        681             0          0      681     $68,005          $0    $68,005     $28,602     ($3,393) 0.012596
39           25         $42         $2      $44        681             0          0      681     $68,005          $0    $68,005     $29,964     ($2,031) 0.915465
40           26         $44         $2      $46        681            68          0      613     $68,005      $3,128    $71,133     $28,198       ($669) 0.992102
41           27         $46         $1      $47        613          153           0      460     $71,133      $7,191    $78,324     $21,620        ($56) 0.64311
42           28         $47        ($1)     $46        460             0          0      460     $78,324          $0    $78,324     $21,160       ($516) 0.194842
43           29         $46         $1      $47        460             0          0      460     $78,324          $0    $78,324     $21,620        ($56) 0.751817
44           30         $47         $2      $49        460            46          0      414     $78,324      $2,254    $80,578     $20,286        $864 0.802985
45           31         $49         $0      $49        414             0          0      414     $80,578          $0    $80,578     $20,286        $864 0.329589
46           32         $49        ($2)     $47        414             0          0      414     $80,578          $0    $80,578     $19,458         $36   0.10111
47           33         $47        ($1)     $46        414             0         41      455     $80,578     ($1,886)   $78,692     $20,930       ($378) 0.212389
48           34         $46        ($2)     $44        455             0        114      569     $78,692     ($5,016)   $73,676     $25,036     ($1,288) 0.083121
49           35         $44         $0      $44        569             0          0      569     $73,676          $0    $73,676     $25,036     ($1,288) 0.545344
50           36         $44        ($2)     $42        569             0          0      569     $73,676          $0    $73,676     $23,898     ($2,426) 0.030419
51           37         $42         $2      $44        569             0          0      569     $73,676          $0    $73,676     $25,036     ($1,288) 0.961052
52           38         $44         $1      $45        569            57          0      512     $73,676      $2,565    $76,241     $23,040       ($719) 0.706843
53           39         $45        ($1)     $44        512             0          0      512     $76,241          $0    $76,241     $22,528     ($1,231) 0.119069
54           40         $44         $0      $44        512             0          0      512     $76,241          $0    $76,241     $22,528     ($1,231) 0.591332
55           41         $44         $1      $45        512             0          0      512     $76,241          $0    $76,241     $23,040       ($719) 0.686568
56           42         $45         $2      $47        512            51          0      461     $76,241      $2,397    $78,638     $21,667        $305 0.993065
57           43         $47        ($1)     $46        461             0          0      461     $78,638          $0    $78,638     $21,206       ($156) 0.106723
58           44         $46        ($1)     $45        461             0         46      507     $78,638     ($2,070)   $76,568     $22,815       ($617) 0.338206
59           45         $45         $0      $45        507             0          0      507     $76,568          $0    $76,568     $22,815       ($617) 0.734044
60           46         $45        ($1)     $44        507             0          0      507     $76,568          $0    $76,568     $22,308     ($1,124) 0.255585
61           47         $44        ($1)     $43        507             0         51      558     $76,568     ($2,193)   $74,375     $23,994     ($1,631) 0.313289
62           48         $43        ($2)     $41        558             0        140      698     $74,375     ($5,740)   $68,635     $28,618     ($2,747) 0.027427
63           49         $41         $0      $41        698             0          0      698     $68,635          $0    $68,635     $28,618     ($2,747) 0.568587
64           50         $41        ($1)     $40        698             0          0      698     $68,635          $0    $68,635     $27,920     ($3,445) 0.308088
65           51         $40         $2      $42        698             0          0      698     $68,635          $0    $68,635     $29,316     ($2,049) 0.940386
66           52         $42         $1      $43        698            70          0      628     $68,635      $3,010    $71,645     $27,004     ($1,351) 0.739404
67           53         $43         $2      $45        628          157           0      471     $71,645      $7,065    $78,710     $21,195        ($95) 0.900413
68           54         $45        ($1)     $44        471             0          0      471     $78,710          $0    $78,710     $20,724       ($566) 0.171577
69           55         $44        ($1)     $43        471             0         47      518     $78,710     ($2,021)   $76,689     $22,274     ($1,037) 0.272345
70           56         $43         $2      $45        518             0          0      518     $76,689          $0    $76,689     $23,310         ($1) 0.907106
71           57         $45         $2      $47        518            52          0      466     $76,689      $2,444    $79,133     $21,902      $1,035   0.90287
72           58         $47         $0      $47        466             0          0      466     $79,133          $0    $79,133     $21,902      $1,035 0.296047
73           59         $47         $1      $48        466             0          0      466     $79,133          $0    $79,133     $22,368      $1,501 0.684561
74           60         $48         $0      $48        466             0          0      466     $79,133          $0    $79,133     $22,368      $1,501 0.287944
75           61         $48        ($2)     $46        466             0          0      466     $79,133          $0    $79,133     $21,436        $569 0.110682
76           62         $46        ($1)     $45        466             0         47      513     $79,133     ($2,115)   $77,018     $23,085        $103   0.21463
77           63         $45        ($2)     $43        513             0        128      641     $77,018     ($5,504)   $71,514     $27,563       ($923) 0.095924
78           64         $43        ($1)     $42        641             0        160      801     $71,514     ($6,720)   $64,794     $33,642     ($1,564) 0.280178
79           65         $42         $1      $43        801             0          0      801     $64,794          $0    $64,794     $34,443       ($763) 0.836697
80           66         $43         $0      $43        801             0          0      801     $64,794          $0    $64,794     $34,443       ($763) 0.416499
81           67         $43         $0      $43        801             0          0      801     $64,794          $0    $64,794     $34,443       ($763) 0.649598
82           68         $43         $2      $45        801             0          0      801     $64,794          $0    $64,794     $36,045        $839 0.914189
83           69         $45         $0      $45        801             0          0      801     $64,794          $0    $64,794     $36,045        $839   0.46461
84           70         $45        ($2)     $43        801             0          0      801     $64,794          $0    $64,794     $34,443       ($763) 0.148656
85           71         $43        ($2)     $41        801             0         80      881     $64,794     ($3,280)   $61,514     $36,121     ($2,365) 0.163828
86           72         $41        ($2)     $39        881             0        220     1101     $61,514     ($8,580)   $52,934     $42,939     ($4,127) 0.166172
87           73         $39        ($2)     $37       1101             0        275     1376     $52,934    ($10,175)   $42,759     $50,912     ($6,329) 0.18472
88           74         $37        ($1)     $36       1376             0        344     1720     $42,759    ($12,384)   $30,375     $61,920     ($7,705) 0.35089
89           75         $36        ($1)     $35       1720             0        430     2150     $30,375    ($15,050)   $15,325     $75,250     ($9,425) 0.297319
90
91 Data table to replicate gain/loss over 75 days           Frequency table
92 Replication   Gain/loss              Positive?                Value Frequency
93                 ($9,425)                                  ($10,000)            8
94            1   $10,007                       1             ($7,500)            4
95            2     $5,256                      1             ($5,000)            1
96            3     $1,232                      1             ($2,500)            0
97            4  ($32,799)                      0                    $0          11
98            5       $846                      1              $2,500            27
99            6     $7,399                      1              $5,000            26
100           7     $3,353                      1              $7,500            16
101           8  ($22,278)                      0             $10,000             2
102           9     $5,719                      1                                 5
103          10   $10,353                       1
190          97     $3,815                      1
191          98     $5,023                      1
192          99    ($8,360)                     0
193         100     $7,202                      1
194 Average           $785 % positive       76%
195 StDev           $8,055
196 Minimum      ($32,799)
197 Maximum       $14,766

								
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