Ticker: WDC
Sector: Technology
Industry: Data Storage Devices
Company Overview
Recommendation: BUY Western Digital Corporation designs, develops, manufactures
and sells hard drives. The hard drive products are used in
desktop personal computers, servers, network attached storage
Pricing devices, video game consoles, digital video recording devices
Closing Price $24.38 (10/26/07) and satellite set-top boxes. It sells its products to computer
52-wk High $26.84 (10/11/07)
manufacturers, distributors, resellers, systems integrators and
52-wk Low $16.21 (04/10/07)
retailers. The company's products primarily comprise 3.5-inch,
Stop Loss: $19.50 (20% loss) 2.5-inch, and 1.0-inch form factor drives. In addition to the
development, manufacture and sale of hard drives for desktop
Market Data and mobile computers, WD revenue is growing in other
Market Cap $5.39 B applications for rotating magnetic storage, notably digital video
Total assets $2.901 B recorders and storage in the enterprise market. Some of the
Trading vol 3,470,650 (3 mo) brands Western Digital markets include WD Caviar, WD Raptor,
WD Scorpio, WD Passport, My Book, My DVR Expander,
Valuation GreenPower, and WD Raid Edition. Its operations outside the
EPS (ttm) $2.496 United States include manufacturing facilities in Malaysia and
P/E (ttm) 9.82
Thailand as well as sales offices throughout Europe and Asia.
PEG 0.90
Div Yield N/A
Fiscal 2007 Financial Highlights
• Revenue grew 26% to $5.5 billion
Profitability & Effectiveness • Earnings per share grew 42% to $2.50 per share
(ttm) • Cash from operations grew by 68% or $600 million bringing
ROA 10.4% the total for cash and short-term investments to $907 million,
ROE 39.26%
an increase of 30% y.o.y.
Profit Margin 10.31%
• R&D spending grew for the fifth consecutive year, a 270%
Oper Margin 7.59%
Gross Margin 16.46% increase from $170 million in 2002 to $630 million in 2007.
• While maintaining focus in the high-volume desktop market,
WDC has grown its 2.5-inch notebook drives, branded products,
consumer electronics (CE) and Serial ATA (SATA) drives for the
enterprise space.
At the end of 2006, it was estimated that WDC
had a19.5% share of the worldwide hard disk drive
market, based on units shipped. IDC, a research
firm, expects worldwide unit shipments to increase
to 675 million in 2011, a 9.2% CAGR (compound
annual growth rate), with 2.5-inch unit shipments
increasing at a CAGR of 18%, representing 31% of
total industry revenue by the end of the forecast
period.
Ryan Meesey 1|Page
rmmmpc@mizzou.edu
WDC more than doubled their 2.5-inch drive shipments y.o.y. to 12.3 million
• Revenue from Branded Products grew by over 180% y.o.y. to more than $870 million
positioning them as the leader within the enterprise storage industry
• Revenue from non-desktop PC drives expand to 43 % of revenue in fiscal 2007, compared
with 29 % in fiscal 2006 bringing the total of non-desktop revenues up to 50%
Revenues by Geography
Americas,
Asia, 34%
37%
Europe, 29%
Industry Trends
Over the past five years, growth in the sales of hard drives has outpaced growth in the sales of
all PCs. Based on industry data, in calendar 2001 there were approximately 50% more hard
drives sold in the market than PCs. In contrast, in calendar 2006 there were approximately 79%
more hard drives sold in the market than PCs.
Growth in hard drive sales is primarily due to:
• Consumer use of hard drives for the playing, retention, and creation of digital content for
personal use in the rapidly growing consumer electronics (CE) market
• Growth of the external hard drive or branded products market, permitting the easy storage,
portability and backup of data such as music, or digital photographs and video
• Increased use of multiple hard drives in PCs for data backup and expanded storage capacity
• Increased use of multiple cost-optimized high performance hard drives in data-intensive
applications such as: Internet search engines.
Additionally, WDC believes that the demand for 2.5-inch hard drives has grown from
approximately 16% of the overall hard drive market in calendar 2003 to 34% of the overall hard
drive market in calendar 2006. This has led to an increased percentage of revenue derived from
non-desktop sources across the industry.
Desktop Market:
WDC believes that the demand for hard drives in the desktop market has grown due to:
the overall growth of desktop computer sales
the increasing needs of businesses and individuals for increased storage capacity on their
desktop computers
the continuing development of software applications to manage multimedia content
the increasing use of broadband Internet, including content downloaded from the Internet
onto desktop computer hard drives
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Looking Forward:
according to research firm IDC, worldwide storage software market is expected to
increase at an annual growth rate of 11.2% until 2011
between 2006-2011 annual growth of 57% is estimated for disk storage, with internal
storage increasing at a 47% rate from developments in the server market, while external
storage capacity should increase at nearly a 62% annually1
Competition
The hard drive industry is intensely competitive, with hard drive suppliers competing for sales
to a limited number of major customers. WDC competes primarily with manufacturers of hard
drives for use in desktop, notebook, enterprise, CE and external storage products. Their main
competitors in the hard drive market include Brocade, Fujitsu Limited, Hitachi Global Storage
Technologies, Teradata, Seagate Technology and Toshiba Corporation.
Hard drives manufactured by different competitors are highly substitutable due to the industry
mandate of technical form, fit and function standards. Hard drive manufacturers compete on
the basis of product quality and reliability, storage capacity, unit price, product performance,
production volume capabilities, delivery capability, leadership in time-to-market, time-to-
volume and time-to-quality, service and support, and ease of doing business. The relative
importance of these factors varies by customer and market.
WD seeks to differentiate by:
“Focusing on operational excellence, high product quality and reliability, and
designing and incorporating into our hard drives desirable product performance
attributes. Such performance attributes include seek times, data transfer rates,
intelligent caching, failure prediction, remote diagnostics, acoustics, error
recovery, low operating temperature, low power consumption and optimized
streaming capabilities. In addition, we emphasize non-product related attributes,
including rapid response to our customers. Rapid response requires accelerated
design cycles, customer delivery, production flexibility and timely service and
support, which contribute to customer satisfaction. We also rely on the strength of
the WD brand name with value-added resellers, retailers and solution providers to
whom we sell our hard drive products directly and indirectly.”2
Seagate is WDC’s biggest and most direct competitor of the aforementioned companies. In
2006, Seagate acquired Maxtor Corporation which, at the time of the acquisition, was one of
the hard drive industry’s four largest suppliers. To counter that acquisition, WDC acquired
Komag, a supplier of high capacity storage media for hard disk drives, for about $1 billion in
September 2007, allowing WDC to expand vertically. Komag manufactures thin-film media, the
tape used in storage devices. WDC should begin realizing earnings from the acquisition by the
fourth quarter of 2008.
1
Standard & Poor’s Investment Report for WDC
2
WDC Fiscal 2007 Annual Report
3|Page
Risks
Some risks that may impact WDC’s profits in the future include:
A decline in selling prices as a result of competition
A decline in PC sales
Loss of market share
Supply chain interruptions
Increased commodities’ prices (steel, aluminum, nickel, etc)
Performance
3 year performance relative to the tech-heavy NASDAQ as well as the S&P 500
3 year performance relative to Brocade, Teradata, and Seagate
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3 year performance relative to WDC’s earnings and P/E ratio below
Valuation
Relative Valuation West. Dig Seagate Brocade Teradata Industry
Market Cap: 5.49B 14.13B 3.52B 5.23B 526.67M
Employees: 29,572 54,000 1,440 5,300 303
Qtrly Rev Growth (yoy): 26.00% 8.50% 73.30% 8.60% 21.80%
Revenue (ttm): 5.47B 11.36B 1.11B 1.63B 223.91M
Gross Margin (ttm): 16.46% 19.95% 55.12% N/A 25.67%
EBITDA (ttm): 625.00M 1.63B 193.84M 383.00M 7.79M
Oper Margins (ttm): 7.59% 6.81% 10.55% 19.82% -1.26%
Net Income (ttm): 564.00M 913.00M 64.81M 197.00M -1.27M
EPS (ttm): 2.496 1.555 0.188 1.09 -0.14
P/E (ttm): 9.82 17.01 47.98 26.68 23.21
PEG (5 yr expected): 0.90 0.84 1.26 N/A 1.24
P/S (ttm): 0.98 1.26 3.23 3.22 1.03
ROE 39.26% 18.35% 6.982 N/A 14.60%
Highlighted above include some of WDC’s ratios worth taking a look at as compared to some of
their direct competitors and the data storage device industry as a whole.
Debt/Equity (0.013)
While debt/equity is not mentioned in the chart above, I think that it is worth noting the
healthy debt structure of the company. As I mentioned in the financial highlight section above,
5|Page
WDC has been able to increase both its cash position as well as its R&D spending without
having to lever itself maintaining an attractive ratio.
Quarterly Revenue Growth (26%)
WDC is outpacing the industry but is trailing Brocade whose impressive revenues in the past
year were offset by declining earnings.
P/E ratio (9.82)
WDC’s P/E ratio of 9.82 is quite impressive as compared to its competitors and industry. This
shows that is undervalued based on its EPS.
Operating Margin (7.59%)
Operating margin is slightly more complex and takes more things into account. Yahoo! Finance
calculates operating margin as the difference between the Total Revenues and the Total
Operating Costs divided by Total Revenues, and is expressed as a percentage. Total Operating
Costs consist of: (a) Cost of Goods Sold (b) Total (c) Selling, General & Administrative Expenses
(d) Total R & D Expenses (e) Depreciation & Amortization and (f) Total Other Operating
Expenses, Total.3 Operating margin is typically looked at to see how efficiently a company
operates. At 7.59%, WDC is operating more efficiently than its main competitor and the
industry as a whole.
Earnings Per Share ($2.496)
EPS is basically calculated by taking the year over year company earnings and dividing it by the
number of outstanding shares. The current $2.496 EPS for WDC is far superior to its direct
competitor and the data storage device industry as a whole. Over the past 5 years, WDC has
grown earnings around 29% per annum. On a side note, WDC has had earnings surprises
averaging 10% over the last 4 quarters.
PEG ratio (0.9)
Yahoo! Finance calculates the PEG ratio as the PE / est. 5-yr growth rate. As compared to a P/E
ratio which looks at past earnings growth, the PEG takes future growth into account. Most
analysts agree that a PEG under 1.25 constitutes a stock valued at an attractive price and
should be considered for further research. As a result of such an attractive P/E ratio, WDC has a
rather attractive PEG ratio as well. This signifies that the stock is undervalued based on its
forecasted 5-yr growth.
Return on Equity (39.26%)
Yahoo! calculates ROE as [(Earnings from Continuing Operations) / Total Common Equity] * 100.
This basically shows how well management is spending investor’s money in terms of generating
returns. Warren Buffett values ROE as one of his most important comparative ratios to evaluate
management. I highlighted WDC’s ROE it is far superior across the board in relation to its
competition and industry. This is a sign that WDC has strong management.
3
Yahoo! Finance
6|Page
Owners’ Earnings Discount Model:
Assumptions:
1. Risk-free rate (90-day T-bill): 3.80%
2. Market Return: 10.23%
3. 1st stage growth: 5 years with varying rates
4. 2nd stage growth: terminal growth rate of 4.78% (30-year T-bond)
5. Beta: an average of 1.615
(Yahoo! Finance 1.64, S&P 1.43, MSNmoney 1.99, CNBC 1.4)
6. K = 14.18%
1st Stage Terminal Growth
$18.07 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 4.71% 5.71%
5.00% $16.72 $17.34 $18.07 $18.68 $19.72
6.00% $17.42 $18.06 $18.84 $19.49 $20.59
7.00% $18.13 $18.82 $19.64 $20.33 $21.49
8.00% $18.88 $19.61 $20.47 $21.20 $22.43
9.00% $19.66 $20.43 $21.34 $22.11 $23.41
10.00% $20.47 $21.28 $22.24 $23.06 $24.43
11.00% $21.31 $22.16 $23.18 $24.04 $25.49
12.00% $22.18 $23.08 $24.16 $25.06 $26.59
13.00% $23.08 $24.03 $25.17 $26.12 $27.74
14.00% $24.02 $25.02 $26.22 $27.23 $28.93
15.00% $24.99 $26.05 $27.32 $28.38 $30.17
16.00% $26.01 $27.12 $28.45 $29.57 $31.46
17.00% $27.06 $28.23 $29.63 $30.81 $32.79
18.00% $28.14 $29.38 $30.85 $32.09 $34.18
19.00% $29.27 $30.57 $32.12 $33.42 $35.63
20.00% $30.44 $31.81 $33.44 $34.81 $37.12
Within feasible growth rate range
___ Slightly overvalued ___ Close to current price ___ Undervalued
5-yr growth estimates:
Yahoo! Finance 12.95%
MSNmoney: 14.10%
Reuters: 12.9%
Price based on current PEG: ($34.10 - $40.47)
To get a rough idea on the current price of the stock relative to what it should be trading at
based on its EPS and 5-year growth (12.95% and 10.91%), I solved for the P in the PEG ratio. I
set the PEG equal to 1.25, since that is what many analysts assume constitutes a fairly priced
stock.
1.25 = (P/$2.5)/12.95
P = $40.47
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I re-ran the problem after “backing out” the growth rate from the PEG that Yahoo! Finance lists
at 1.4 to get a growth rate of 10.91%
1.25 = (P/$2.5)/10.91
P = $34.10
What growth rate would make the stock fairly priced?
1.25 = 9.82/G
G = 7.86%
Assuming WDC can grow above 8% or so over the next five years, it is selling at a discount.
When using the growth rate provided by Yahoo!, WDC is undervalued by a remarkable 65%.
Even using a more conservative growth estimate of 10.91%, which is currently priced into the
PEG ratio, the stock is undervalued by 40%. While this valuation method doesn’t take a whole
lot into account, it is worth noting that based on projected 5-yr growth and current EPS, the
stock is cheap. Even if you were to assume a fairly priced stock should have a PEG of 1, it should
be selling between $27.28 and $32.37...still undervalued.
Recommendation: BUY 1050 shares (~$25,600)
WDC is in the midst of a 5-yr $250 million share repurchase plan that extends to 2010
Continue to increase R&D spending allowing them to stay at the forefront of the
industry
Just announced they have achieved 520 Gb/in2 areal density -- the hard drive
industry's highest demonstrated density to date using continuous media
Recently teamed up with TiVo, which will allow users to store up to 300 more hours of
recordings
Becoming less and less dependent on the PC industry
Have reduced debt by an average on 73% a year over the last 5
Continue to build a strong cash position
Have grown earnings an average of 45.6% a year over the last 5
Should be able to increase margins via the Komag acquisition
Compare favorably relative to their peers
o P/E of 9.82
o PEG of 0.9
o ROE of 39.26%
Even Buffett’s model shows the tech stock is undervalued
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Income Statement ($ millions)4
2007 2006 2005 2004 2003
Revenue 5,468.0 4,341.3 3,638.8 3,046.7 2,718.5
Total Revenue 5,468.0 4,341.3 3,638.8 3,046.7 2,718.5
Cost of Revenue, Total 4,568.0 3,512.5 3,049.2 2,585.3 2,275.6
Gross Profit 900.0 828.8 589.6 461.4 442.9
Selling/General/Administrative
179.0 165.7 155.1 106.1 121.4
Expenses, Total
Research & Development 306.0 297.2 239.8 201.8 134.7
Depreciation/Amortization 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Interest Expense (Income), Net
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Operating
Unusual Expense (Income) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Operating Expenses, Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Operating Income 415.0 365.9 194.7 153.5 186.8
Interest Income (Expense), Net
28.0 15.8 5.4 0.3 0.0
Non-Operating
Gain (Loss) on Sale of Assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other, Net 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9
Income Before Tax 443.0 381.7 200.1 153.8 189.7
Income Tax - Total -121.0 -12.9 4.1 4.0 7.6
Income After Tax 564.0 394.6 196.0 149.8 182.1
Minority Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Equity In Affiliates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
U.S. GAAP Adjustment 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Income Before Extra. Items 564.0 394.6 196.0 149.8 182.1
Total Extraordinary Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Income 564.0 394.6 196.0 149.8 182.1
Total Adjustments to Net Income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Preferred Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
General Partners' Distributions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Basic Weighted Average Shares 219.0 215.0 207.6 205.7 195.6
Basic EPS Excluding Extraordinary
2.58 1.84 0.94 0.73 0.93
Items
Basic EPS Including Extraordinary 2.58 1.84 0.94 0.73 0.93
4
MSNmoney
9|Page
Items
Diluted Weighted Average Shares 226.0 224.0 216.9 216.7 205.5
Diluted EPS Excluding Extraordinary
2.5 1.76 0.9 0.69 0.89
Items
Diluted EPS Including Extraordinary
2.5 1.76 0.9 0.69 0.89
Items
Dividends per Share - Common
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stock Primary Issue
Gross Dividends - Common Stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Interest Expense, Supplemental 4.0 3.7 3.3 2.1 5.3
Depreciation, Supplemental 210.0 159.8 131.0 100.4 50.4
Normalized EBITDA 625.0 525.7 325.7 253.9 237.2
Normalized EBIT 415.0 365.9 194.7 153.5 186.8
Normalized Income Before Tax 443.0 381.7 200.1 153.8 189.7
Normalized Income After Taxes 564.0 394.6 196.0 149.8 182.1
Normalized Income Available to
564.0 394.6 196.0 149.8 182.1
Common
Basic Normalized EPS 2.58 1.84 0.94 0.73 0.93
Diluted Normalized EPS 2.5 1.76 0.9 0.69 0.89
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Balance Sheet ($ millions)5
2007 2006 2005 2004 2003
Assets
Cash and Short Term
907.0 699.0 598.4 377.8 393.2
Investments
Cash & Equivalents 700.0 551.0 485.2 345.5 393.2
Short Term Investments 207.0 148.0 113.2 32.3 0.0
Total Receivables, Net 697.0 481.0 402.9 313.1 243.9
Accounts Receivable - Trade, Net 697.0 481.0 402.9 313.1 243.9
Total Inventory 259.0 205.0 152.9 148.6 97.8
Prepaid Expenses 0.0 0.0 14.5 17.8 9.2
Other Current Assets, Total 166.0 120.0 12.5 0.0 0.0
Total Current Assets 2,029.0 1,505.0 1,181.2 857.3 744.1
Property/Plant/Equipment,
741.0 549.0 395.0 274.7 122.1
Total - Net
Goodwill, Net 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Intangibles, Net 0.0 0.0 12.4 0.0 0.0
Long Term Investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Note Receivable - Long Term 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Long Term Assets, Total 131.0 32.0 0.0 27.2 0.0
Other Assets, Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Assets 2,901.0 2,086.0 1,588.6 1,159.2 866.2
Liabilities and Shareholders'
Equity
Accounts Payable 882.0 632.0 569.1 434.9 352.3
Payable/Accrued 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Accrued Expenses 236.0 215.0 231.1 136.8 153.4
Notes Payable/Short Term Debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Current Port. of LT Debt/Capital
12.0 25.0 20.1 15.2 0.0
Leases
Other Current Liabilities, Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Current Liabilities 1,130.0 872.0 820.3 586.9 505.7
Total Long Term Debt 10.0 19.0 32.6 52.7 0.0
Long Term Debt 10.0 19.0 32.6 52.7 0.0
Deferred Income Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minority Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Liabilities, Total 45.0 38.0 35.4 32.0 33.1
Total Liabilities 1,185.0 929.0 888.3 671.6 538.8
Redeemable Preferred Stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Preferred Stock - Non 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5
MSNmoney
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Redeemable, Net
Common Stock 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0
Additional Paid-In Capital 811.0 775.0 714.3 698.7 676.6
Retained Earnings (Accumulated
955.0 391.0 -4.1 -182.9 -334.2
Deficit)
Treasury Stock - Common -51.0 -12.0 -11.7 -29.2 -15.8
Other Equity, Total -1.0 1.0 -0.3 -1.1 -1.2
Total Equity 1,716.0 1,157.0 700.3 487.6 327.4
Total Liabilities & Shareholders’
2,901.0 2,086.0 1,588.6 1,159.2 866.2
Equity
Total Common Shares
222.0 221.0 214.6 206.1 202.9
Outstanding
Total Preferred Shares
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Outstanding
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Cash Flow Statement ($ millions)
2007 2006 2005 2004 2003
Net Income/Starting Line 564.0 395.0 196.0 149.8 182.1
Depreciation/Depletion 210.0 160.0 131.0 100.4 50.4
Amortization 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Deferred Taxes -126.0 -22.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Non-Cash Items 48.0 42.0 5.0 28.2 -20.0
Purchased R&D 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.6 0.0
Other Non-Cash Items 48.0 42.0 5.0 2.6 -20.0
Changes in Working Capital -78.0 -207.0 89.0 -88.4 45.4
Accounts Receivable -218.0 -77.0 -90.0 -66.5 -25.1
Inventories -53.0 -52.0 -4.0 -41.9 -24.4
Prepaid Expenses -2.0 -1.0 2.0 -7.7 0.0
Other Assets -7.0 -80.0 -13.0 0.0 0.0
Accounts Payable 196.0 30.0 94.0 54.3 57.8
Accrued Expenses 6.0 -27.0 100.0 -26.6 33.3
Other Assets & Liabilities, Net 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
Cash from Operating Activities 618.0 368.0 421.0 190.0 257.9
Capital Expenditures -324.0 -268.0 -194.0 -131.7 -61.9
Purchase of Fixed Assets -324.0 -268.0 -194.0 -131.7 -61.9
Other Investing Cash Flow
-59.0 -35.0 -80.0 -127.1 3.4
Items, Total
Sale/Maturity of Investment 9.0 74.0 15.0 0.0 0.0
Purchase of Investments -68.0 -109.0 -95.0 -32.3 0.0
Other Investing Cash Flow 0.0 0.0 0.0 -94.8 3.4
Cash from Investing Activities -383.0 -303.0 -274.0 -258.8 -58.5
Financing Cash Flow Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5.9
Other Financing Cash Flow 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5.9
Total Cash Dividends Paid 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Issuance (Retirement) of Stock,
-43.0 24.0 13.0 7.9 44.3
Net
Issuance (Retirement) of Debt,
-43.0 -23.0 -20.0 13.2 -68.3
Net
Cash from Financing Activities -86.0 1.0 -7.0 21.1 -29.9
Foreign Exchange Effects 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Change in Cash 149.0 66.0 140.0 -47.7 169.5
Net Cash - Beginning Balance 551.0 485.0 345.0 393.2 223.7
Net Cash - Ending Balance 700.0 551.0 485.0 345.5 393.2
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