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Aldysis of an lssue. This is ihc namc of onc of thc two GIIAT essn\' 'lssuc'(uiing lasks. Throu8hout this book l reler to ii b]'$e sioglc word an uPrterc;lsc'1") Ainlysis oI srr A-rgumcnL This is tirc namc ol thc olbcr GMAT cssr) 'Argumen{_ tasks.Tlrou8hout this book l refer to it b\. the sinSle s'ord (usin8 xn uppcrcase "l-).
OPOOLSO OF GRE AND GMAT ESSAY THEOFFIGIAT OUESTIONS
During yolr GRE (or GI'l T) sirtinS, thc comPurcrized testinS system s'ill r-andomlyselect your lssuc and Argirmenl qucstions from a la!8c databasc, or'pool." CYouwon l know beforehandwhich panicular qucstions the tcsiing system will.Pres€nl to you.) ETSha5 Prcdisclosedils completc Pool of cssay qucsdons for each of the rsto cxzml. To ger the SreatcstPossiblc benc6t Jrom this book, especirlly -&om the s3mple essaysin Pans 5_8, you should obiein your omciel lisl They're aYrilablc on line, and the GlvtAT list is also aErlable in print (For delar]s,see belo$.)
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Thc official list (pool) of GRI Analltical Writin8 quesoons cunenuy consists ol 125 lssucs and 125 Argumcn6. H€r€ ate th.ec different ways to obtlin the comPlet€ list: . vielv the list, free of charge and v,.ithout regis(rition, at the oficial GREWeb site (www.8rc org) Folloq' the lir$i !o thc description of Gcneral Test, then locate the description of the Ana\'tical thc GRiE vlitin8 scction. Therc, you'll lind seParateLhks to the lis! of lssues and lisr of A-rguments . Unk ditcc-rlyto th€ lssue and A4lumcnt [sts from my GRE Analyti.wrilitg Wcb sitc (www.s'cs!.oet/-s!cwart/8rewa)' c.l . Thc tq,o lists tntgrl be a ilablc from ETS in Printed form For the latcs! inJomation, check my update Page at this book's llreb site !wlw.wcsi.nc/-srewtn/ws)
Qursrotcs EssnY or-GMAT Txt PooL
yexr Thc,oficir-l list (pool) of GMAT essayqucstions (fer the admissions 20Ol-02) consisls of 125 Issuesand 125 Argumeot5 Hcre are tfuee diffcrent ways to obtain the lisr: - DoE:r oad thc lst, 6ec of charBeand without rcgistErion' from thc GM,{C'S ofiicial GMAT Web sit€ (www.mba conr) The list is an availabj€only as a PDF (ponable docummt fortnat) file' not as
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TASK rIIE ARGUMENTWRTTING
The Argument wridng task is desiSnedto test your critical-reasonin8 skius as well as your writitg skills. Your t,sk is to critique dnc srated Argument in termi-oi ia cogincy Oogic:l soundness) anct in terms of pe sucnpfh of rhe evidcnce offered in suppon of thc aqiument. In scoring your Arfru' ' ment essal',GRE and GMAT readerswill consider how effectively you: . Identrff and anallze the kcy elemcn6 of the argument . Organize, dcvelop, and cxpress your criuque . Support your ideas (with reasonsand examples) . Conrol the elemcnts of sIendard written En8lish
Loor'Lxe GMAI Ancumrurs GREAND WrLqr
Your GRE or Gtr{ATArgument ""'lll consist-of two cllments:
o A paragraphle ng:th passale (which Presenls the a4lr]ment iitsclf) . A bnef directiue (description of your task)
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3" Appeal to Broader Considerations
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r8xc that any minor Problems piih your position secm trivi'l in light of the broad, and serjous, implicatjons that th€ lssue raises Tbe essayfor lssue I Provides an cxamPle First. $e cssayacknowledges x ccrtain Problem Ivith its Po5inon: ' . . fDlelxys q?icxll-v associrtedwitb burcaucirtic re8lrhtion can thwa.t the purPosc of thc regulrtions, becauseenviroflmcntal Prcblems can quickil'become 8.ave indeed Thcn, the cssay points out thc broad socielal consider:rtion tl:rt Puis iris mitot drawback in its proPer PcrsPective: ' . lsluch delays sccm trivial when \\'e considct thar many enviJon' eotil iroblcmi car4'no! onl-\'a rcal threat to Public health but atso a Polcntial threat (o the veq'survi!'tl of thc bumffr sPecies
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cxamplcsIo mJI:c Your Poinl overuscd Tn'to avoid usint bxckncvcd. lrd GMAT lest lakers will rel'\'hcavil! oo toda] s Kccp in mind: IIanY GRE hexdlrnes and on histon 5 nlosl illuslnous xnd nolorious lisurcs Hcre :lrc somc nxmcsrnd cvcnN rbxt culrcntl]'(in tht vcxr 2002) come to mino: Tfld€ Centcr . Osamabin Lrdcn or the:rttackon the W-orld . The Effon and Atlhuf Andcrson accounling scaodals . Recenl American Prcsidentixlscandrls " AdolDh Hitler and drc Jewisir Holocrust . Bill Gatesand Mrctosofi s busitess lmcLice( Examples such as thcse arc the ali_tooobvious ones. Try lo di8 a bit deeper, showing the rcader a broadei, more Iiterate Pcrspec[ve
Oranl' Sparingly
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Unlcss the specilic direcdve xccompanying thc slatemcnt inskucts othcnwisc, i!'s Perfectly accePtablelo dra9" on your own exPenences at work, co0cge, or clscwhete. llowever, avoid rell'in8 too hcavily on personal cxpeience. Strive to demonstratethrough yout essal'a b'eadti of both real-world cxpcri€nce znd academic LnowledS€'
StriYe to Be a Generalist, Not a Specialist
Unless the sPecific directive lccompan]'i'rg the stalemcnl insruc$ othetwise, avoid harping on one Particular re,son tlrat you belicvc is the most convincilg one or on one examPle that you thinl is most illusL_ltive' xs Try to rcund out your discussionas.ftr.lly you reasonxbly havc timc for' agarnstgohB orf on a rangcnt witi a sinSle rsson or eximPle' To Fuard ir-'r'to adherc to one of thc siruc-turrl templares you'll lcaF'about a.bit I^tcr in Pan 2.
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The followinS lssue cssi.rsin Part 5 and Pan 7 are ba5ed esscntially on t]) varEuon: I t I GRE EssayNos. 66' 85 GMdT BseY No 74 tlll
TernPlate B
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Try this rcmplate to acknowledgc ote strong ?rgument aS4itaJl your in supporl oflo Posluon but wbere you hlvc more re?sons or cx2mp)cs Positior lst Para?rapb: One rcason(afld/or cxample) in suppon of yout positioo
2fld Para|,"apl,. Another rsson (andlor exmple) in support of yor posilion of yo! 3rd ParagraPlr: Attorherreason (3nd/or ex npie) in suppon positioo Final Paragrapb: -ief countirrrgument -+ rebutta)
jn The foUowin8 issue €ssays Pan 5 'nd Pan 7 arc btsed essendallyon t templatc: Nos 4l, 48' 73 r t I GRE EssaY t l l t GI1AT Essayr.{os.11 65. 84
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Try *lis t€mplale to acknowledgc ote or ntore strong aiguments 3rup aq uc) t^oqr p qr sll8arljrs aql
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. Composing fult-tcngah a lssuccssrl,(l cs:,i1.) For cxch Froup of eicrcis(s. di.ccaions ,or rhxr groun inrmediarelyprcccd( th€ excrcises.,.lr-r,,?to scsand collnnents bcght on J)a{e 59.
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. At least one cxamplc andlor rcason in suppon of cach maiD point o A ba.sic posilion or rhesis (for vour introducrion and concluding prragl'lphs) Limir your timc to 5 minures per lssue. L For rh€ foUowin8 Issue,provide n'l ouulnc for ,1,o body para. Sfaphs-thc first one ir suppon of the sarcment,s positi;n, the sccond opposcd to i!: ."ln ant ficld of eDdeavor,an indiviclual,s bcst critics arc tlc individual's own pcers in thar felcl." 2. For abe folo*,in8 Issuc,provide an outlnc for ,rrce body par]graphs. you, probabl), nccd ar tea$ dlr.. p"_goph. ,o comparc diJtcrenrrypcs of professions ". ""c"rion" La ro aef_. the setemeni,s kev rerms, "Professional successusuallv depends on a person,s abiliq, ro respond and adapt to unexpccted problems and changing crrcum.unccs' 3. For rhe folloe/ing lssue, provide arl outline for ,/rrca body paragnphs. you'll probablv nced xt lcast three paragraphsto examine bodl arerj Lisredand to corFider oihcr possible crj. alquesof the s6tcnren!. "Ho$, we reacr ro public scanclals_whether in busincss or potirjcs-.eflccrs our vajues and prioriries ns a socicr),."
On scmrch paper. crcare an oudjnc for c:rch of thc fouo\\,ing rhrcc lssues. l'our ourlineshouldconrxinnoresfor:
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Here s an outlllnefor a rcsponsewi$ *ree body prmgraphs. Thc firsi pirrgnph s'ould proyide two mxin reasonswh)'tic tcst takcr tundimcn_ trtlJ' agreeswifi thc stilcmcnt. Thc sccond pamgnph vould considcr The third ParaS.aphwould possible cxc€ptions, ticn cxplain thcm a.!val'. ' . rcco€lizc rhar the issle resrsultimat€ly on thc defitirion of'profcssional ' thxt thc t€st takcr phns to rcl)' on cxafiples succcss."The otltline suESests from a vxiien'of Drofessions, ParagBph 1 (A8r'ce-z Rcasons) . It,r)'jobs inherentll, unprediclible (e.9., ioumarisrn,medir, . I{rilriplc circcrs .re common today (no job securiry) Paiagiaph 2 (Exceptions) . Exception:Jobs cnsconcedin convention/ladition (c 8, laq', banlinS) . but evolvinSlaws, re$latrons, and tcchnology requlrc adapration . care€rsin th€se areasnot sccure ' A fcw riieoredcalfields might be insulared(€.8., brstory, math. or music deor), . but job circumstanccsoftcn unccndn, so aclaptor
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Thc following ippexrcd jn r mcmo from rhc maiagcr of Uppcrcu6 hair ' : , . . 1 r ' 'i 'Accordins ro r ralionwjde dcmographjcsrudy,more and morc peopte rodayxre moving from suburbsro downroq,n areis. ln orclcrto boost saggingprolirs at Upp€rcut5,Ivc should rals;rroles ,ql SrmnsDr rllua .iroldv u,lLoi -urr.op or wqmqns s.loldv ul uoFrtol tuJjjntr stl ruo{ uops oql Jlf,l-u .le]rtJolfj' pfnoqs .^r 'qnlrJddn tesruordSu€8es tsooq ot rrpro rq" uolsnrJuo:) Ig[rIJ . 'sJrrrrolsnJ oroul DBlflx ot LnEuJJ sr f1n3|l3ddn 'guotEs 3se!F Fusserlns o,|d.r Jo srroFrJol F 8ulrxlnurr ,tg" uolsnlJrrof, orDJPsrDlarul : :rrE l.ql.lrH ern3,Eddn 3s]^Io^u tuaurngry.ql q suorsntruof, rrlr ll)3n raq qqnSupsrp pu! lJ]luapl no,{ p1O tctnJ pux.rqpcuu.tu .uorsnltruol arrllr.ur.rur rrn sutEluor lu:unflt .!.,{r toN 'ru)rlm&y etp u! al3qndrr|! r!3ddr tq€nu .spuad:p uorsnlruoe .
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PART 3 conclusionsdepend. For cach major piecc ot cv;dencc, vou shoutd also no(c ^ny ad4itional in.[ont@turl yau woLlt.Jnccd ro dcrcoDinc how suonglvthc efidcnccsupponswhxrevcrconclusion (inr€cmediate nnat) or is basedon rhar cvidencc. During srep 2 yolt should alsol 1- Look for problems wirlt rhc.A..Funrcnl i,rrcnlal logic fafu+,,1
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and €videncc 2. Describc bricUl lhc rBUmcn. linc of rcrsoninS s in suppoft of its cooclusion. ,. ro s 3. Allude genersll\' rhe problcmswirh the ArFument linc of reasoningxnd use ol cvirlcncc.
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Thc lbllos'irrr xppca.cd in r n)cmo fronl a rctcvision nctsoik s protnmrrinF dircctor: 'Parcnrs of ]'oun8chitdrcnarc bccominA incrcxsingh. €onccrrcd abourho\\' depicrions viotcncco,r rclcvision of mighr inJtuencc i chikls trrl)iviorxnd rrritlrdes. Drrrjnglhe pnsrvexr, rlte.rtin8s for Rcal Crirrtc. one o[ oLr ncrwork s n]ost popular primc.timc sho!\,s.hrvc sreidih. declincd. Thcrcforc. in ofdc, ro boosr our pnmel1imcmrinss, \ec should rcpjacc Rc.rt CriDrc \,irh tl siruxrion comCdt shos.." Response A The at8ument rclies on an unproven cxuse.nnd-effccrelaiionship bcrw€en cefiain parcnnl conccms and rhe shoq,'s ntings proble, . The direcror h:rsnor rulcd our orher possibteciuscs lor thc show,s r^tings decline-for examplc, ! chanScin rhe show's specific timc slot. lf it rums our rhrt rhe show s dcings problem hxs nothing ro do wjth it's dcpictions ofviotencc. r.hcnsimptv rept:rclngthe show.(vlth one thar contains no violcnce wil probiblt nor solve rhc problcm_ ResponseB To begin wid), rhe meoro indicires ncirhcr ttut yo!ng children are inrcr€sredin warching Rcat Cnnc nor thar th€ show actu.Iy depicrs violence. Ycr borb coridirions.re neccssan,in ordcr for the show ro carq' t}Ie kind of delcreriousirJluence on young chitdren wjth which parcnts seem concemcd. Thus. ur essboth condirjons are mct, the orrector cannor convince me rhi! anv changc involvjng th€ show will addrcss reseparenhl concems, ler alonc boost rlrc sbow's.mtings, Even il Real Cntne doesponrav viot€nce and does have a porenri.ltl. undcsirablcimpac! on yolrng chjldren as a resut, the diiector has nor shovh rhar th€ show's waning poputarity is amiburable ro rhis impact. Perhapsthe show owcd i$ popularity !o some oilcr featurc, such ai n certain celebrity narmror, thar the shos, now lacks. Or p€rhaps a new compering sho$', onc rhti is ar lcasr as violcnt as,Redl Cnnc, has drawn vicwers ^war tsiotn ReaI Crirr?. h shon, untit ibc dircctor rules our_all-orhcr possible reasonsfor thc rerinS'sdectine, I will rernain unconvinced thrr rhe shov's violent porlmFls, if an),,are rcsponsiblefor rhe tlend ind tlcrcforc rhar inl chrn8c s.outd scrvc ln order ro c\.aluatcrheargumenrproperj). ar rhc very leasr,I woutd nced ro know \t/hcrhcr !h€ conreni of,ReatC-rn e is cxusefor parcnrrt concem and what percenrage rirc show's viewers are yo\rng chilof drcn. lt would alsobe uscfulto kno$ rhe re.lsonsfor rJ]cshow s retativc populariff in t}lc prs! and whv formerJ??a/Czi,Dcvievers, cspccially those wnh voung child.en. no longer wxtch ltrc shos..
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hivc continued Possibilin thil d€sPitc rlrc nc\\' hs thc cmissions ( h i t d ) c i x $ ' h : t $b c e o trnxDxrcolf tln\ i5 thc crsc. thcrr thc chirn c f f ' j c ( i v c t r r P r ( \ c n r i n A U r k n r ' s D i s c x s ci o S t r t c X w o u l d h c k a n ) ' cd( wh:rtsoclcr-:rs Nould thc llhiDrr( clxim dr:rl I similar lrt\\' would bc cffccli\'s in tlris sLrtc'fo strcngtlrcn the ar8umcnl tlrt ednorj:rl s ruthor must suPpl)'evidencc just u)rt smcc the lrw was cnacted rlvo yerrs a8o (l) SBte X residenb arc rs likch to repon UD q'mP(omti xs bcfo'c (2) cmjssions thi! viola(e tlre liiv h:rvc ibated. and (l) allorhcr trrctors in tlrc incidcncc ofUD svmf," loms have remain essentialll unchmged
False-Cause Problems in the Official Arguncnts
(Parts 6 and 8)
Ar8\rmen6")' for in As you studl' my essays Parl 6 ("Essays 20 Offjcial Gn_E paragdphs: problcms in the following of look for m)' an,l.vsis fxlse-cause t t I CRI ArSum€nt No. I (founh €ssiJ'paflar:ph) GREArSumctt No 20 (secotd md thjrd essi)' pa'rSciphs) pan8mPh) GRI ArSumentNo. {2 (third essa.Y (founh essal paflAnph) GREArgumenr N;. 46 GREArgumcnt No- 59 (thi.d cssaypan8rtrplr) GREAr8umcnt No 68 (s€co8dessaypll-ngmph) GRI Argumcni No. a8 (drird ess4' pit-rgrrph) GREAr8ument No. 91 (tlrird essayparagmpnJ GRL4.rgumentNo. 96 (frfth essayPanSnPh) Argumcnt No. 105 (second arjd rhird essayp aSflphs) Gn-E GREArSument No. 122 (second cssaypamglaph) As you srudy my cssi\'s ifl Pan 8 ('Essays for 20 Official GlvlAT Argu' . problems in the followinS mcnrs-). toot foiinr; anrlysisof falsc'causc Parrgfaphs:
I t I I GMAT ,\rgumcnr No. 23 (third essavparagnph) GMAT AJgument No 28 (second and i,'fth cssay paragmPhs) GMAT Argum€nl No. 37 (sccond €ssal paragraph) GMAT Argumcnt No. 42 (fourth essayparagiaplr) GMAT At8ument No- 48 (third €ssxyPar'8mPh) GIIAT Argumcnt No 74 (tnird essayparngcaph) GtvlATArBrment No. a4 (second cssqr pangraph) GMAT Argumcnt No. 89 (ftird and founh cssal'PimSriphs) GI'IAT At8rrmcnt No. 93 (sccond cssay paragnph) GMAT A8umcnt No. 105 (second.nd thfd essfy paragtaphs) GMAT A,r$rmcn! No. r24 (founh essayparaaraph)
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Nccessary- and SufEcicnt-Condition Assumptions h the Official .drguments (Paits 6 aDd 8)
As you snrdy rny essaysin Pan 6 ("Lssxys for 20 Ofi;ciit cItE Aj.Sumcnts"), iook for my analysis Dcccssary- suflicienr{ondidon assumptlonsln of and thc fouowirg paragrnphs: Necessa.ryConditiors r ll GREAr8urnenrNo. 20 (s€cond cssaypar-rgraph) GRE Argumcnr No. 59 (fifrh css:ry para8|aph) . GRE,lrgumcn( No. 109 (sccond essaypangnph) GFJ Aqumert No. 122 (fifth essry pffaSnph) Suf1]cicnt Conditions I | | GREArgument No. 20 (founh essa-\' pangr-aph) GRI Ar8ument No. 46 (thkd ?rd ff$ essay paragraphs) Gru Argumcnt No. 68 (third essayparrgraph) GRI Argumem No. 76 (s€cond cssayparagnph) GRI A4lument No. 96 (founn essayparagraph) GRIE A4$menr No. 122 (third essaypanglaph) As you study my essaysin Prrt 8 ("Essays lor 20 Official GIIAT ArguE)co!s"),look for my ana,lysis nccessry- and suf{icienr.condirion of problems in the follovin8 paragmphs: Neccssa-ry Conditions | | I | ,GjU,{T{rgument No. 28 (third essay paragraph) GMAT J\rsument No. 53 (foulIh cssay paraSriph) .. GMAT AiSumcnt No. 59 (rhnd cssay paiagmph) | GI{AT ,{rgl]mcnt No. 79 (fifrh cssay paragraph) GMAT tu'g]lmenr No. 89 (nfi-h cssay paragraph) GMaT ArI|umcnt No- 93 (founh essayparagaph) ' GMAT Arrllment No. 117 (founh €ssayprngaph) G]\4AT Argument No. 12{ (ffrh essa)'p 'agriph)
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,\r'!iument €ditorial: The followin8 appearedin a Iocxl newsP,rP€r "ACcordinS . rcccnl n:ltionsidc srlta(l. n 8.c.Ier Pctccnta8c lo ()f rodnr (lrxncvcr comPlxilr dcprcss'(n) our n:r!'oo lccn:rgc.s r of wc necd to do more !o bcforc. ller( in lhc town of Scrsidc. ensureth4 our leenxgc.sfill their dxis with mcaninSturl. productivc activides,so lhxt lhc) gro\1'trp to bc happl, B'cll' adjustcdaduks.' Rcsponsc are s lrhough tic edirodnlrssumesihat Seaside tecnaEcrs typical of m the nation's tcenagers leneml, it suppliesno evidencewh1ts0everto For 3-llwc knorr'. the incidence ofdeprcs_ sub5ontiatedris aJsumption. rcensis far lower than the national alerage-low sion amongScaside's enoughthacteen deprcssiondoes not pose a cofiununitl"widc Problcm IJso, t.\e cditorial cainot jusrj4'ils rcconmendation to tlr€ for S€aridecofimunjq, atleast nor basedon tie nationwide su.vct. To bolsrcr tbe rccommendation,instcad of relvjtS on a nvecPing genct"lizalion, the editorial's aud)or should Providc speciic cvicleflcc lccnagers,depressionis 2 s'idesprc;td probl€m that among S€aside to contjnuc udcss the communiq Ld{essPccific mea' rhar is !.kely surcSro rcversc tnc lrcnct.
Ex.rmplc-what's
Truc for a Mcmbcr Is also Truc for the Group
The fo owillg Argumcnt ffsumcs that chxractcristicsof a pxniculal memb€r of a SfouP aPplv to the SrouP as a vhole. Cfhe Argurnent might suffei from olher reasoninSproblems a5 vell, but herc I m focusing on A a itr;sgroupmimber problem.)ResPonse Provides bnef bu( rdaqu:rre that cont?hs each of the three elementsncedco to one-par"gmPhan.lvsis B ed&ess th€ problcm. ResPonsc provid€s x more deniled mi\'sis witb riorc exr,nplcs, a5 well 15listing additjonal infofiniiion ne€cledto proF crl-vevaluatcthe Atgument.
The fo owing is pan of in articlc appeffing in tre entcftrtment sccuon of a IocJ n€!$p.Per. "At the local viewcr Choicc video store, thc number of aLailablc movi€s rn YH$tapc format tcEr.aits about thc same as thrce ycars ago, cvcn thouSh Lhe number of arailablc movics on drFilal wideo disk, or D\rD, hx5 rrcrcrscd tcnlold oter u)e pr5l ulfcc yelrs. Pcople who predict the jspending obsolescence of tbe vHS format irc mistakcn. smce dcm:rnd for vHs movie renttls roday clexrl), remarns jrx! ar sFonS 2s ev€r."
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Tame-Shift Problems il the Official Arguments (Parts 6 and B)
Ai you srudymj,es$ys in Prfi 6 ("Essavs 20 Officiai cREArgumenrs"),look for tor m\' anal)sisof rime.shr.ft problenrsin lhc fottoNirs p;tn8mphs: | | | cn.E Argurncnr No. 9 (iirird essiy p:rragrapir) cRE ir!'umcnr No. 3l (fourih essxypafignph) GRI Argumcnr No. 96 (sl\{r essal'pangi.rph) Gn-E Argument No- 109 (rhird essal. p:rmSrnplr) GREArgument No. 113 (founh cssayprrlgriph) s you srud)'my css:rvs Paft 6 ("EssaYs 20 Official clt T Arg:uin fof mcnrs"), look for m)'xnalysisof time,shifrproblems ifl d1efollowinS paragraphs: I I I I G 1!T Argument No. 23 (fourth cssxyprlagmpb) GI{, T Argument No. 28 (fouftb essq' pamgmph) GMAT Arg1lmentNo. 5l (sccond and rhird essaypaligmphs) GtrIAT rgument No. 79 (fourth essly panSraph) GMAT Argumenr No. l3l (second essxl'pangmph) -
OiHrnRrasounrc Pnosle^as GREAND wtrH GMATAncurarurs
Nosf rhat -\'ou'vecximined rh€ mosr common cR-Eand GMAT reasonin8 problcm!, briefl),su.vey some othe. r€asoningproblems you mighr Iind $'jth an Argumen(. Alrhough each of rhese problems is less common tim anv of thc ones I've alrerd)' covered,you should be rcacil' for thcm an,r5vay- jusr in case.
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Ar rgumcnr might rely on a ceftain rcrm wiriloui providing an sdcquatc dcfirition of it. l-ook especiallyfor rcferencesro a parlicuiir class,cflcgoo, or group, without x clear cxplanarion of'whar jr jncludes or excludes. For cxamplcs of rhis problem, see I I I cRI Arr$mcor No. 59 (fou.rh essa)' p;rngnph) I r I I GiIAT lrgument No. 23 (fiilr essiy pa.rgr:rph)I GMiT Argument No. 71 (founh cssly pxragraph) cN'lATArgrmcnr No. 89 (frsr essayparag.iph) CI{AT Aryumcnt No. 122 (founh cssayp:lmgmph)
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5 . WorLforcc Sysrems, consulrin8nrm spccializingin workplacc I
producriviq lnd etficienq., rcpons riar ncarl\'70 pcrccnt of MDiacchs cmplor'ceswho cnrolled in WorMorce Sysrcms one-wcck scminar lasl lcir chin] to bc morc conrcnr with rhcir curcnl iobs than prior to cnrollin8 in drc seminir. Br,rcqui.ing managcrsa! aI large corpo.arionsro cnroll in thc kinds of seminarsrhat Workforcc Systemoffers, productivin in our econom)'s privarc s€cror is ccrl-lrin to improve. A s'gnijlcarr pcrccnrr8e of dlis counr)'s rcsidcnrssho reccive unemplovmcnt benefiGfrom rie state repon that thcy would prefct to work bur have difficulcyfindrn8 work for which rhey are qua.lificd. In ordcr ro.educc rhc st.ain ofl our counr),s SrateEmploymcnt Dcvclopment ofiice, which is currenily uodcrstaffed,the countl' should eslablish?n adulr joStrainins progr]m.
7-8 Exrncrses
ln cach of thc ncxr rwo cxcrciscs,jdenti4'and discussthe r?cessaDr cond{tlon or sulficicrrt{ozdllton lssumprion. Also nore othcr posslblc problcms you would anriciprre discussing r hjtl-tcngth Argrrmcnt cssay. in 7- Thc juvenile ,usricc dcp3r..n€nrof onc of rbe nadon's lar8csr cirics reccntly lcponed rhar chnd.cn who cngagejn rnv of thc ciry's or8rniz€d spons progJams arc iess lik€b' ihan othcr childrcn to bc ' convic.cd of a felony crimc larc. ir life. Th€reforc, rhc fcdcirl SovcrfDcnt can reducc tic national crimc rarc by mand*ing daily physicel-cducation clxsses cvcry high schoot in $c nation. ar L RivenowD's hisloric Hill disrrict used to be onc of r})e ciq"s 6ain tourist aftnctions. Sircc thc consrrucrion ot a ne!{'shopping ccntcr iI,I thc distficr, the disricr's quaint oldcr shops and rcstaufantl have had diLrculry anracring parons. ln oldcr ro prcscrve thc hisro.ic valuc of . lbc Hill disrricr's oldcr buildings ard ro prcvcnt furthcr ioss of rcvcnuc from touris6, t}le ci(y lnusr imposc a mot"rorium on t}le conshrction of any ncw srrucrurcsin the Hill disric('
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In cich ofthc Dcxt rwo cyercises, idcntify and discussthc potcntial groutmember problez. Also note othcr possiblc problcrni you would oticipatc discuisioS in e full-lcnSl}r Argument cssil.. 9. r,rtciaDt Industries.our state'slargesrprivatc lusirlss, the avcragc produclion worker is now 42 years old. Rcccntly, Giant's rcvenu€ from thc salc of textil€s and paper, ,whic}| together account fot thc d.eiority of Gialrfs rn nufacruring business, has dedincd si&ntficrntly. Sincc an increasingperccn6Sc of ncs' 8raduaresfrom our sratc's
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encc. Sinccrhc xrgumcnrfuils ro prove rhxr rlrc policcjorcc reducrion is thc acrualcauscofthe rcriil busrness slump, or cven conFiburcd ro it. lh€ xrgumenr'sproponcnr cannor jusrifixbl! irfe. !lr:rr:r policc.forcc Incrc:isc voold scn'cro revcrs(lh.t sl('ntp. rlonc tl)rr ir ,rvoutd lcr rc!; nlize thc ciqrs cconom!in fcncrxl. In a tull-lcngrh (JGminurc) cis;n, \'ou mighl nlso rddrcss rbc foljoq,ing qu€stionsabour rh€ Argunlcnr's rcasonin(: . A th,zsbol.l proble : Does rhc cin hxvs xn economic problem to bcSin with? Os it flir ro issumc dr:lr rbc ciqJs cconomy is suflcring mcrcly bccauserer:.il revcnuesin onc paniculnr disrricr hrvc declincd?) . Wouid the propos€d course of acrion rq.lcc to attln t}}e stated obiecr'vc?(Pcrhapsaddilionxl me?surcs,such as renovating rhc disuict or parrollinSit xr nigbr, would also be nceded.) . Is t])e proposed course ofaction ecas.rary atrrin the stated ro objecrivc?(A ciq' mjthr reviLatize economy itrrough othcr msrns it5 instcad.)
2. ANA.ysrs
This Argument might conhee causeind effecr wir}l mcre correlation, a rcsponsc that handl€srhc problcm: .Hcre's Th€ argumcnt unJairb,assumes chatXcnon's workcr producriviry is simpl)' I function of whar :r vorkcr ca.s for lunch. Altlough rhis miSht bc thc case,r merc correlaion bcrwecn lunch dier rnd productjviry does flor sufficc to esBblish a causc-and,c$-ec!-relatiog: ship. Thc arSumenasaurlor musr also consider xnd €limina(c ill olhcr rcasonablecxplanationsfor r})c diJfcrcnceirl produciiviry lcvcls bctwccn the rwo Smups ofworkers, P€rhapsthc mosr plausible sftcmxrivc cxplanrrjon is thar vo.kcrs who bring rhcir own lunch arc morc producdve bccauscthcy spend lcss timc cating lurch and Dorc timc irorkinS. ln shon, lacking bcncr cvidcncc thrr ar Xenon producrivjty dep€ndsprimarilv on luncb dier, ,rsscningthat dranging - thc cafcrcria's lw)ch mcnu will improvc a,rorker producrivity anounts ro lnlc morc than conjccrure_ :In a trnl-lcn8th (lcminurc) 6say, you migh. atso addrcss rhc followtr8 ,qucsdons3bour rhc Arglmenr's reasoning: . A tbr.shold problcm: Arc ca.fercria lunchcs acrually much diffcrcor from lurches rhat workcN brinS from homc? (If nor, rh€n thc enrire arSumcnris poindcss,) . Wolld t})c proposcd cou.sc of acrion .r//ce to arrain rbc scatcd objectivc?(€.8., workers who prefcr catctcrir dining mjghr cboosc
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YOUR GRAMMAR
ln rhis scction the Srammatjcale.rors tt''ar resr Llkers riake -'-o., oo.,., ,,',:J:"I]eam G^'tAr cssa)'s oI coorsc' I can\ covcr tbc ld .n,". ".." "r::'^':-:Y Sro'nrn'r herc consulta comorchensjvc S'"'omar grr,oaro. -o.,"ngutn
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lssue 55 No.
Has Techlology laileg to Hetp Humanity progrcss?
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PARI 5 () r\ anl machirethir crnnor be desc.ibcd i rool. lycn mxchiics dcsif,ncd cnrcni;n or :lmusc us-for crxnrplc, lor rol)ols.c:rrs.lidco 8amcs.lnd usc Nhiclr thcir in!cnrorsrnd Pronrolcrs fol noy(lr\'ircn]s-xrc in tuctr(x'ls. jn ol cng:rginF conrmcrccxnd tl)( busincss crrrnrinrr(nr rtnd rnruscmcnt. nd dr( cliim rhar i mxchinccan be an cnd in irscll vithou( purpost or fo. is b(st. sioc€I c;'nnol utilirxrixn funcLion hunr rs wh:usocvc.. (lubntr's:1r conjurc up cvcn a sinSl( cxrmplc of rnl sucll mrchinc Thus, whcn v! anr' son of machincve ils'xvs hivc somr son of cnd in mind-i d€vcloD pucpos€for that machinc. xr( machincs As for the sralemenr's:iecond chim. in ccnain respccts, supenor.\\'e havc dc\'r..o m:.ch,nes rhir pcrlorm numbcFcrunchnt anJ with grcrterrccur]cl xDdspc(d lhan hum3nmitds t-Isks orhcr rolc cer€bral ev€r could. ln fac!, it is bccauseve can dcvisc machincsthat arc supcrior in rhcsc respecrslhar we deviselh€m-as our rools-to be8il| wjrh. Howcvcr. iJ one defincs supcrioriq, not in terms of competcnc€ in performin8 rotc rrrks but r?thcr in other wavs, human rdnds arc superior. Ilachines bavc no capacityfor independenrthought, for making judgmcn6 basedon normativc considemdons, or for developirg emoliond responses ro inicUcctud problcms. Up unril noq'. dre notion of human-madcmachines rhrt dcvclop rhc .biliq to t]rinli on thcir own rnd ro dcvclop scc:tlled 'cmotional irrclLisence'h?l been pr.c ficrion. Besidcs,even in liction, wc humbs ultimatc\' prcvan ovcr such machincs-as in thc c25esof Frankenstein's monsrcr and Hal, the compurer in 2001: A Spacc OdJ,sr.l,.Yet jt sccm( pr€sumpruousro assen q'jrh conidcncc tha! humrns will a)ways mxinlain thct supcrior stxtusovef their m:lchines.Recent:rdvincesin biorcchnolo8l, penicularly in the.Jca of human Benomercscarch,sug8esrthat within tbc rwcnty-first ccntury, wcrll witness mxchines rhar can lcam to thi!-k on rhcir o\a'n. ro rcpar lnd nufture themselvcs,ro cxpe.ience visceral scnsadons, aJ|dso forth. ln other words. machincswill soon exhbit thc traits ro which wc humans antiburc oui own supcrioriq'. ln sum, bccauscn'e devisemachinesin order thai tbel ma-\'scfvcus, il is fai.rto characreri?emachines as "rools of human miods." And insofar zj humans have *re uniquc crpacitJ'for indepcndenl thought, subjcctivc iudgmcnt, and cmotional responsc, ir also seems fair ro claim supcrioriq - - over our machines.Besides, shorid we c\'cr become so cl€\'er a spccics aslo dcvisc nuchires Lhat can rru\'rhink fo. tlrcmsclv$trollor, rhe aurbor circs ric fact rhar rhc incidencc of sick tcavc in L€evilc is lcss lhan rn ^1a5on Cirl.. This cvroencc wo|l]d lencl suppon ro rhc ar'guftcnr od_vif the ponion oI loczt residcnrs employ€d bl, locaj businesscs vcre ncrrl), drc san)cin bodr roNns :1.
rcl]Llg on rllrs cvjdencc, Lhe auiho,lssumcs Urar dr€ portion of sick cmplovecs who.cr!a y u-ke sick teavc is ncarl),rhc samc in bor.b towns. In shon, wjlhout shovjng rhxr thc wo tc
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PART7
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lssur No.
'tI
t l
Fersonal Faililgs
of Gre:rt Achicvc.s
AJc ihe pcrsonil frili'rFs of Fre!r achicrcrs Scncmll! unimpo(:rnr comp:rrcdto drc individu:rl schiclemcnrs.xs rhc spcrkcr contends? s ln perhaps Ho\\'c!cr.in ma vic\'. rhisconrcnrion sonrccrs€s, so. :rmounrs irn to untair Scncmlizntion. Thr spcakcr o\'erlooksrhar prr:on;1l fiilin8s oft(n pl:rl an inrcgral role in the processof achieving grear rhings-cidrer as a caril]'sl for it or xs pa.l of rhc process. Somc pcrsonal fiilings can scwc as cr&lvsls for Frert achicvcment.,{ pcrsonal failinS can rcst tbe s'ould-bc ,chievcr's merrlc; il mighr posc r chailcosc-DccessaD'resisrxnce thar drives rhc individu:rl ro achicve dcspirc ihe shoncoming. For cxample, poof acadcmic or job perfoimancc can propcl a gi-ftedenlrcprcn€ur ro sran a business,Nhich ulrimare\' becomcs the dominant plrycr in irs irdusrD. Or se.ious illnessor inju.j' can spur rn athlclc on .o a(ajn woridrEuor)tr rr.,rrd.,, .rlr .p.rnpo,j ., ,," ,;;;:.;'''"-"'!
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cmpiricxl cvidcn.c to suppon lhis nrFUnrcnt. s4rich in anr cvenl is r | n c o n \ ' i n c i n gi n l i 8 h t o f n r o r ( n € r s u : r s i l er r g u r n e n r sr h x t g o v c m n r e n l s h o u l d plry no prn in cilhcr supponinS or rcstricrin! thc ins. F i r s r . s u b s i d i z i n Fr h ( r n s i s n c i ( h c r r p r o p ( r n o r n c c c s s r t i o b f o r Fovcmmcnr. Altl)ough pLrbllc hcalrh is tener1llv v'cwcd xs criticll l(' x r conccrn of aovcrnnlent. socicn s ve'-1'sun'ivrl and tbcrcforc rn ,pprop.i "hcalth' o. this conccm shoukl not €xtcnd lenuousl) ro ou. cullural welfbcLnF. A hck of privirrc funding mjghr jusrii an cxccptioni in m)' obscnarion. how€vcr, philmihrop! is alile and wcll Iodir, cspcciall) among !l)c nc\, lrchnology nnd mcdia nroguls. Sccondb. govern.ncnt crinoi possiblj' play an cvcnhanded tolc as ans parron, lnadequarc resourccs cxll for rcsarjctions, p.joritics, and choiccs, k is "valuc' unconscionablc to lclegarc normative decisions as !o q'hlch ari ha5 ro a Iew icSislators and jurists, vho ma)'bc un€r iS.htcned in thcit nodons about an, Also, legislarors arc all too likel)' to makc chojc€s in Iavor of thc cuftu|ll agefldas of rhosc'lobbyrsrs wirh dle mosr mone]' and kr.0ucncc. Thirdll, rcsL.rcunE anrsl,c oiprcssion mr) rn somc cacs cncrorcb upon the consrirulional nghl of fre€ cxprcssion. 1o an] catc, Sovcmmcntal rcslrictjon ma) chill creativit)', thcrcby defeaUns tbc veLT purposc of subsidizirg the 1116. in lhc final analysis,Sovcmmcnt crnnot philosophically o. cconomical\' jusriJy itJ involvemcDt rn thc ans, cilhcr b,\'subsidy orsanction. nesponsibiliq Les w,rh mdrviouals ro d€rennine whr( art his vrluc 1n,1 to suppofl tlat an.
lll
lssur 26 No.
I,ocation:
Still the Ke-v to Busiress Success
ln retail, or "slorcftont." busr,.less, locaiion is 6till a key inSrcdienl of busincrs succcss,Thc cxcnl ro which this will continuc to bc truc, Sivcn thc inexomblc growt}) of lntemct commerce. will varl' imong industrics. ll) more Faditional reuil scctors,such as clorhin8, cosmetics,trd homc 'improvcmenr, alr in-persor visir ro a reuil srore is oftcn neccssary-lo try o'l clothes for fir, comparc fnfarurces, or browse among a full selcction of rextuJes,colo$, ind stvlcs.Also, activities such a5 shoPping and dining out mcrs . enio.ynblcexpcricnccs il]) themsclv€s as wcll as arc for maty consu !r'ith odrcrs,jnt)cir cofirmuniq cxcus€sro ger our of the house?nd mil1lCe cosls for large ircms sucir as applianccs and homc' FrDall)'. shippinS improvcmcnt.ircmsrendcr homc sh€ppin8 impiaclicablc. Thus, burgconinS (cchnoloaics po3c no scno|us thrq:r to lllain Sucet, and locrlion wiu conrinuc ro play r pivoal rolc jn rhe flte of rn&y rclail busincsscs. 3Jc Ncvcnh.lcss. rcchnologv-rclatcd indusl..rcs suc to movc rway from to viJtual oncs- Ploducti lhat cm be rcduccd lo diSit2l physicrl stor€fronis 'birs ud bncs." sucb :ls books and mag^zocs. recordlnss, and sofrvarc appucarjons, ffc mo.c efficicolly disriburcd clccuor}]cau)'. Compulcr from lt'l3.in Slicet quite so quicldt, thougr' sincc hards'arcwill nor disaPpexr
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of Admiltcdl). hisro4 his hclPccl us Ic:lm thc aPproPrirtcness moml orrcs, on I socictal lcvcladd.cssingccnain issucs.P:rnicul:rrlr in br ro ,\rrcmDts lcgislircmomlil invx.ixbh f:ril.xs illustr:ttcd l'rohibiLion x c c c t 'r " r ( 1 1 c 9 1 0 \ : r n d . o r r r c c c n ( l rl 'i r l c dI ( d e n r l ( A i s h r i o n" r t F U h r c m 1 'rJ thc lnrcmcr \\/c rrc slosl\ lcrminF tlri\ lcsson ir' llr( rdull marcrirl rnd tlrr 'l of rcccnl trendtoq:rroIcFaliLrrton nlxniuini tor nrcdic'n ptrrPoscs rcco8nirion of cqual riShls for samc_scx Pxnncrs both dcmonsu-rt€ iboul socill ills ;s d1ntdrc'r' lcssonfrom histot-._l HoNcvcr. !bt ovcridios for exxmtlc, halc troubled irlmos( are b€re ro stnl. Crimc lnd violcncc, becn evcq, socicn, ,{ll mantcr of rcform, Prevcntion. rnd Punishmcnt hivc ioward a rried. Todat, &e lrend appears to be lwa) ftom rcfom "tou8h-on-crunc' aPproach ls this b€crusc hislon mxkes clear rnal purushmenri5 th€ most cffcctjvc mcats of eliminatitg crirnc?No; lathcr' tirc trcnd mcrell' r€flccb culrcnl mofcs, attirudcs, fnd Political climatc' how wc dcalwith thc mcntau)''illscgmcnl of Anothcr examPlejnvolves nor rhc population. Histot-1tcvclls ihlt ncithcr qult-lntine' treatmcnt' comcs wlth ils solvesrhe problcm. onl' thrt cach aPPtoach accotrllr]odatioo os,n rrade'offs.Also undcnnining the 15senionthlt ltsloq'hclps us ro solvc social problcms is dlc fict t})rr. desPirt d)c civilrighls cfJoru of Mrnin Luthcr KitS aod hrs Pto8cnics, the cuitucd 8xP todi\' bcrwccn lftican q'idcninS l! scems that .aci:tl AmcricaJlsand vhitc Amcricanssccms lo bc prciudrccis a (!melc's Phenomenon To sum up, s'hilc hisroD cao Ieach us )cssons abour our socrar or problems, more ofrcn than not. thc )essonis that ihcre are no Panaceas Nrvs of copinS prescrif,uon'tor solr,nFlhesc problem'-onlr xlremrrc with thcm.
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Bureauctac;ts
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arc Conrary to thc siatcmcnts Prcmise, my vicq' is rhat businesscs lcss bureaucncics' becauscb\rsitrcsscs likelt than Sdvcmmcnt to csBblish large kJ)oq' thai thcy are morc vuln€mble than Sovcmmcnt to damagc rcsultitg js My ftom burcaucradcinefficiencics. Posiriofl sell suPpofted bJ' common scnseand bl observation avoro Firs!, Public idminist!2tors hck rI( finaocixl bccntivcs to corporatio' vil burcaucntjc wasle. Ill con!!25!,'inemciencicsij) 2 Privatc ',,1 thc forrrl of job cuts diminishing rcducc profis: iniictinS. dima+ Itc corll,'non's.ock\-nlue, ano reduc;g cmPloycc compcnsltion Thcsc amPIc itccntivcs for thc private hrm to mirimizc bureaucr-rlc w?stc Sccondlr. rhcre is alnos! no accounlabiliq' amonS govcmmcnt burcruclals Thc clccro!"re s volin8 powcr is roo indirecr lo motir?rc midlevcl administntors whosc sahics "nd jobs rarcl)' dcpcnd on PoUtiol attcnlion t0 cl€ctions ljr conllast, private cor-porationsrnust p:]Y stricr
Impact i'I Business and Govern-ment
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hcihh care ir.rccessibt( thc vcn-indn.jduats ro vho nccd jl nrosr.Thcsc uscr-unf.icndh.featurcs can be detercrious on :r socicLLtscalc as welt. /i unhcrlth! populiccis xr)unp.oducrivc onc. Also.incrcrsccj hcrlrh_carc cosr! placc in unduc burdrn oD brcxd-\r,innin8adutrs \r,ho Jcct the squcczc oi c:rnns for rgins prrenrs rnd for chitdrcn. Finath., rhcse fearurcs losrer I pcF.asilc dislr'ustof Sovcmmcnr. bic busincss,xnd burcaucmcl.. ln sum. roda\-s -poircrnd-cljck" parrdigm inaccunretl poftmys tlrc acrutrl tunctionalin of manv sl,stcms. inctudin8 our herl(h eqj urDqo uEr nol lood lcrrrllo s,rrTEul )sr):Q tn nuju'n€r]/ Jr.n lo OZ o, ar*oarJ ltrl sumuoJ e'uE :Sq^ronoj f,q) pt]trlJ
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Ancu,raevr B No,
Intcrcst in IUanagement lssues Arnong Worl(cis
,^ccordin8 ro d)is cditoriat. ibc comn)on !jrN of Norkcrs ap.!hcrjcabourmanr8cmeor issUcs fitsc. or il lcrsr (,1,(J. To ruDDon rs Cd. rhjs :rsser.ion,rhe cditorial circs :l rcccnrt! pubjjsbed jun,(\ jn \\4ljch 79 pcrccnl of rhe 1.200 workcrs responorn8ro x quesrjonnrire indicated tsrcar rnrcrcst rn coporarc-rcsrrucluring :rnd bcncfirs_rcdcsiFnissucs. CarcIrlt scmrif,) of rhe ediro.iat rcveils numcrous potcn!irt problems $,irh il-problems rhtl ,endcr irs xurhor's posirionunrcnable. A rhrcshotd problem is drxr drc €dirorirl negtect5 ro indiclrc ho!,, rcccnrl)'ric survc.\,wasacturl)y conducrcd. All .wc knos, is rixr thc surycr was rccenrlt pubUshcd.Thc lcss reccnr rhe surve\.itselI. rhe less rcliablc dt; resulrs ro indicare cuffcnr inrcrcst lclels in man.gcmcnr issues amonr workcrs,rcgrrdtess when rlic resutrs of wcrc pubLst)co. Two more polcnliat p.oblems h:lve ro do wjrh rhc su.vcy s mcthodolo81,.Firsr, unless rhe sufleyors smptcd a su_ffjcicff number ol sork€.s and did so nndomly across the €ndr€ workforce spccrftm, rlrc survct'resutrs arc nor rcUirblero gauge rlc inrcrcsE of workers gcneE!),. Thc number oI respondent5(t,2OO)in irsclt docs nor €nsurc reDresenLltjvcncss. t:o. cxamptc, if rhe samplc includcd onjy m,rnagers, rhcn rhc lcsults sould no doubr suSScsr much hjgbcr levcl of inre.csr rhan thc evcmcc 2 lcvcl imong aUvorkers. . second possiblc mcdrodological pfoblem n $rt of bias. pelhaps Norxcrs Jrrhowcrc inreresredin mxnrgemenl issuess,crc morc likeh,tirrn orbc. volkcrs ro rcspond ro rhe qucsrionn,iirc_possiblvbecauscrhey found _rnc quesoonnaire moft intcresrinS. Or perhaps i signiicanr numbcr of rcspondcnB fejgncd intcrcsr in mxnirgsnlcnrissues bccruse rirc\, bclicvcd thd'mi8hr Sarnfavor wjrh lhcir compan! bv doinS so. tn cirhcr even(. tj)c survcy resu6 would be vifturlh, usetcssin dnwing .eliabte conclusions abou! t}. xcrual.tc"et of jnrercsr in m;rn:rgcmcnrissucs among vorkcrs _ SCnCrau). A finat ploblcm wirh rhe cdirorial invotves r}rc possibiliry of addirronar lcsulrs Iiom rhc surey-rcsuhs rhar ttlc eclirorialneglecljsro mention. Fof cxamptc, maybe $e questjonnsjrelisted mrnt. m tagemenr jssuesano mc rcsulrs showcd kccn inrerasr2mongworkers in onlv thc rwo Da(icularin_cs' rhar rhc cdiloriat mendons. fn frcr,'fer,aI Nc knos,,rrtrcsunev rcsgonOenus indicarcdrhaadrEywcrc comptercl),aparhcric roq,rrd alt ortrcr rssucs, rn which crse drc common norion dtar thc ediro.i: seeks ro dispel would appear to bc correcr aftcr all. In sum, rhc edirorjat hls nor succecdcdin d,sproving rhar sr'orkcF are apathcric abour manag€menrissucs.To make at lclsr a cotomblc d.sumcnl based on rhc survq,, thc cdironat s ruthor musi shos, ihar lhe surcY rcspondcnrs as a g.ouD ,ccumrch, reitecr rbc enri.e worke. poputation in rcrm5 of rhcir inrcrcsrin minrgcmcnr issucs,rcncr:rlh,_nor iusr rbc r.vo
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Iinrlh.lhc spc:rkcr's rrSr.rnlcnr rssunr(s rlur colleF(nr:riricuhrion rx(cr :rrc d)c onl! rclixblr jndicilor of x hiFh scl)ool lc!!l of educ;uionll s cffccrivcncss. thc nrcr( l:rctthir x hiFh schoolsrudcnr Yet docs nor procccd t(' collegcdocsnot ncccssrrril! nrcxnllr]l rbc hi!h llch()o1 \'rs incffcclj!( in cducr(iirgthxt srudcnr.Thus. rhc spcikcr unJaidr cquarcs -cducxrional effccliveness'r,irh collc,r(-mxt.icuh!ion rares. In conclusion. scanr drc scrtisric:llevjdcncc proridcd in rbc spccchiiils Io conf incc mc rl)flt Einsrein c:rn incrcasc. or evcn nral'lrah, irs level of cducarionxlcffcctivcness vnhou! incre:lscdfunding. lnsread of rclying on :r potcntialj\' irelc!:nr sr^Lisric Irom rs,o dccadcsaSo,rhc speakershould hevc yc2rs. r?res nrovidcdfinstcin5 colleFC.mirrlcular'on fnr mrn) consecurrvc up ro rhc prcscnt rimc. To tull) provc her case,thc spelkcr sbould havc also provided €vidcnce drat subsr.rnriares rwo crucial ?5sumprioos;(1) thxl bcr collegc-matriculaLion mrcs dcpend prjmarily on r hi8h school s educ'tional z.rd (2) tha( collegemarricularion!']tes are rhc bcsr indici(or of cffecdvencss thar cffeclivencss.
|ill
ARGUMENI I\O.
Id
Shuttfe-Bus Service to Local Subway Stations
Tbis cditorial pomrs our rhar commurcr usc of rhc neq'subw:iy r.ait hi-s cxcccded projections, vhile commuter use of shuRle buses rhr( mnspon pcople ro subwa)'smrionsis b€loq'p.oj€crions. Accoidir8 ro t}lc edito.i:d, in ordcr lor a Srcalcrnumbet of comurers ro shutrlc rathcr rhat drivc ro the surions, rhc citl musr eirhcr dccrcasc shurdc far€s or taisc p]J|1ng fces:rt thc sLlrions. For sele.al retsons, rhjs claim js a dubious one ar bes! To bcSin with the reasonfor_rhe unexpecredl)'lo\r' shulllc-bus us:rgc mi8ht havc nothjnS ro do with eir.her shurde-busfares or srzrion,prrkinS fccs. For inst nce, commuler awarenessof thc shurtlc.busoprion mighr be growing morc slowll'.tban arrLiciprred,For tha! mrrler, man'I commurcrs mjght bc wary'-of riding drc buscs due ro :r rcccnt shurrlc.bus accidcnr.. Viftour ruling out thcsc rnd orher altem:rrivc explanrrions for t})c low shuttlc'bus usagc. rhe autlor caffror reerooxb))' concludc *rar adjusrinS shutilc fares or station'parldng fecs vill have anl' effccr on rhar usa8c. AdmiRing for thc srkc oflrgumcnHhal shuRtE-bus farcs andlor parkins Jccs ire rcsponsiblc for thc lower,rh2njoJ umr.r E rrql rno srlnocr )s.rrj .",,r" .,q, ;" ,1q,."..-,lI'
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quict cosir€. in a c.r lhro in r mororcvclc. cirirerrlrnt. it {'ould bc ln unrcxsonrblc to d.r\' ,Lnt conclusions xboLrt \4rr teoplc choose onc n)ororq'cltoler anotbrr bascdoD snlcsof quicl crrs ris'A is noisicroncs. ,\s for 1l)csccondfx.r-abou! rhc relcvision ads*rhc aLrhorsccnlsto q'ho nriFhrbc jnrcrcsrcdin assurrcrhr( r signficrnr ponion of pcopis Natcb drc adscnough timcs (o bc inlluenccdb) Ihcm. buling molorc)clcs \\hilc this might bc thc c15c, thc aurl)or nusr prolidc clc:rr evidence to subslrnr'arcdris:lssumption,OlhcN,ise, I cannor :lcccpt the author's injerencc thir the lds haae an) bearinS \'hlrsoclcr on consumer mororcvclc-bu\'rJ)B dccisions.. ln c'unS t}e ads. thc aurhor rlso secms ro rssumc thar Is usual fcarures,s'hich the xds tout, actualll influencc motorq-clc-bu] ing dccisions of peoplc viewing thc ads.Ye! ir is enLi;e\' tossible th,rt these people donl likc or don't carc about X s app€ar?ice bur thx! the ad's rzucous musjc rcminds ibem of Mororqcle X s most ippcaljj)S ferrure-hs noiq cn8ine. Thc fact rhat X ha-s bcen msnufacruredto! molc than sevcnrl ycars strongl) su8S€sts that people are alread).famiti"r eirh thc sound of X s en8inc and hcrefore thxr the ads mighr seruc ro r€mind rhem of t}lxt sound. In conclusjon,drc xulior hasnor trovided convircinS rcasonsto rcjccl dle assertionrhat $e forcitn.madc cop-\"sfailure ro lrrract X cusromcrsis duc to irs compnrrrivch quict cn8ine. To bolster his posirion, instcad of rcl!,nE on potcntialll lrrclcvant st.rrisric5 abour car s3lcs,thc iu$or should providc bctler evidence-perhaps in thc form of aorldwjde survel .-rcsulrs-ihat mororqrclc buycrs have rcjccted thc forci8n cop_\'tor reasons hrvjng nothirg to do s,ith enBinenoisc. To funhcr bolsrer his position, thc aurhor mi$t look for a rcljrblc telcvision,viewer sunc! showinS th?t thc :rds Ior llotorcvcle X €ntice porendrl bu,vcrsprimariir bcc:ruseof the ads 'focus or tbe bilie's visual fcarures-or for orhcr rcasonshaling nolhing !o do wjth an8inc noise.
Htl
No. Ancurari.rr 42
Should the Postal Service Raise Postage-Stamp Prices?
Thc author of this opinjon xniclc claims that mising postege-st.amp prices vould ircrcrse thc posr2l scliic's revcnu€ rvhile decreasi.ng mail irs volumc, both of which in tum r})c author .liims Nould climinxte sErin on posElvorkc.s. Bascdon t}cs€ t}|-posri q stcni ,nd improve mor{c aJnon8 "dcrcrjoratio;" ofrhc posql sersice.Tlus ,rr!.umcnt depcods the:ruthor cx.Ils on2 scrics of four c?use-andun,rot)rrq) pur suordrr-rnsst: sr p.r"uur:.qn.un,nq tr-'r)rutr iLl],{:s uo srl:r 1u)tun&r srql.dtqsr:uxo :rrqnd rnrp :rr,rua::purr --rtqErrrord rq. ,unsqr Jcrrorrp. I rl),q^1tq__.renrc :rrJ, ()scrursnq )rrt) .toord rrllr sr,drq"rruao,,"""a o, prro,r", lt1u.)rr 'O)) luLd(Uol sns.ortr A!Iquuo,a .,n Jo ..:1" 1"!ror1p..!qt
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busincss xmoUnrs shcxrconlccrurc, to anctrhc xrqum€nlcan bc dismisscrl out of h:rnd. (hc nrsr such Tnroios k) th( irgunr(nts unpfovcn rssumprions. issumplion is rhxr CC o\\'cs irs profir;rbilinro irs newl! fcsrorcdp.jti(c srarus.CCs pro6r:rbilin. mighl b€ due insrcrd ro fac()rs such as (hc ccooun)rcor rcgui:rron cnvironnlcnl-ro nar,le jusr r fcs,possibiliries. Morco\'cr, jusr xs a poliljc:ll ofnccltolder mjghr l|nJiirh reccive credit fof :r prcdcccssor's accomplishmcn|5, s cucrcntprofirabilinmight bc duc !o CC policicsand acrion5xr CC wbiie ir *is r public compint.ln fac!, j! is cnrirclypossiblc rharCC wxs moreprofirablc a publicbusincss rhal it5 as and profiBbili!'is in dcclire-duc ro iL5renrm ro prilatc sr.irus. cirher c15e.it ln would bc morc rcasoDiblc ro conctude rhal publjc businesscs are lil(etl,ro farc bcrrcr rhan privarc ones, mrhcr rhan the o$cr va\' around. Anothcr of the rrFrmcnr's unsubstantiarcdassumprionsis rhar CC is qpical ofbusinesscsrccehrl)'.eslored to pljvate st,tus. t! js enrirel),possiblc tia!, ro the conr.rq, CC's profiLlbiliry is hjAhil unusuat undcr lrs circumsr:ncesand rhrr in mos! cascs,profits sulfcr when a busincssrcrums from public to prjr?rc smrus. Thus, befor€ I cao accepr thc cdirorial s cooclusion, rhc author must shoq' thlr CC is rcpresentativ€ of most busircss€st}lar r€rum ro priv:ltc sLlrus. Even it mosr busincssesr.hnt rcrum from public ro privxlc srarus improvc *rcr pror'13bili$'(-fare bcrier") as a rcsult, r.hcauthor's conclusion t}lrr pnrarc busLnesscs an cniiic group fare betr€r rhan public ones is lat as too broad. Perhapsdrc most profisblc busincsscsarc rhc ones th:rr rcmain public ones forever- If so, rhen the aurhor would necd to nuro\r' tus conclus'on rccordingl\', ln sum, ftis argument suffersf.om cwo classjcreasoningnaws: (1) a correlation bcr'wecn rwo drings (in this caset priva(e owncrsNp ard profir2bili.y) sufiiccs to p.ovc a causc-rrd-cffcc.r€larionshipand (2) wirar is true for on€ mcmber of a group (in tlns case,businesses rcsrored ro pnvar. own€rship) is so rrue for rhrr Eroup ar a whote. f the aurbor wishcs ro convince m€ of his sw€cping conclusion, mrher rh;lr) rclyirg on va8uc ard scant informariofl abour one porenriall] irnreprescnritive busincss, the author should comparc rhe profirabiliw of public businesses a group wirh as thar of privarc businesses 1 group. a5 -
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I\RGU}.4ENTI\O.
JJ
.'Avoiding
a Shortage of Trailed
Engileers
This editorial poin6 our thar in rl* pasr; fte majoriry of cnginccrs in' this countn havc comc from univcrili€s bur lhir rhc numbcr of univctsirl"aged pcoplc Ln this country is bcSirning to decreaic-a lrcnd L.rrat thc cditorial s aurhor beuevcs will continuc tor thc rcsr of thc decad. dDc ro 2 currcnt dccLinc ir high school enrolmcnr. The auilor reasons that thc nrtion Ivill soon bc shon ofrr:rLinedcnAinecrs, then concludcs lhat educxlion
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No. | l| Ancur,,rrrvr 74 l
I |
$'iI rhc Seaucl lo a \.isr:] Srudios Movie Bc Profitrblc?
This m:rlxzi.cir(iclc prcdicr5 rhrr rlrc scquclro a ccnajn \'isq Srudios will bc p.ofiuble- Thc adicl€ s aut}lor bascsthis prediction on the facr movic (hat a se;cs ofbooks bxsedon char,lcrers from the firsl movi€ arc consistcnl in bcstscllers loc:ll booksto.cs. find this Drcdicliondubious for scvcml I rca50ns phns to rclcase sequ€llo a vidc To bcSinwith. VisI, prcsum:rbh lhc rudicnc€,not just to mcmbcrsoI tl)is loc jq . If so, iI s€cmsIoolhard) lo make lny prcdictions abour thc sequel's Scncral popularjF'bascd ot thc apprrent intcrcsts of ooc communiq. ln addition, tbe a4lumenl dcpends on the rssumpdon !hx! rhe books' populariry is duc.o thcir cha!'rctcrs.Ye! the.rSumcnt docs not rulc out oLhcrpossiblcrc$ons for thcir topulariq', such as plor lincs, illust.atjons, or evcn prjcc. lf ir rums ou( that thcilr popularity is duc ro some featurc lxcking prediction would amounl to littlc morc in thc two movics,thcn t}c autl1or's than conjccture. Even ?ssumingthai thc books popuiariq' is due !o thcir cha$clcrs, I would remain skeptjcrl ,tbout tlc author's prcdiclion. Thc movic scquel mi8ht coniin diJfcrcntcla-ractcr:.in n'hich casciI may vcry wel] disappoini a( rhc box-omcc, dcspirc ihc succcssof lhc books al]d $c fi.rstmovic. Evcn if the scqucl contains tlc s.fnc ch ?c!ers, this fcit\rre in its€lJ rniEhr not sullicc io draw la!8e xudicnces Consumcr irlc.esl ir rhesc cheflcter5 miBn alrcadl be saliatcd,or thc scqucl mi8hr simplt no! be xs Sood a5 rhc lirst movic ard *)c books. ln either cvcn!. rhc etrhor's predicdon mighl very wcll not comc to pass. . Firaly, in prcdictin8 ih3r the sequcl wcu bc p66tiblc bccausc the books arc popular, thc author arsumcs thar a poPular movic ncccssafil)' trlr.nsa proilL. However, cornmon scnsc and obscrvadontell loc thal movic profits dcpcnd nor on-ly on box-officc lttcndzrtcc and video salcs (that is, popularit, bur also on cos6 as 'wcll. Thus, thc sequ€lm.ighi tufn oul to bc popular bur urprofi I!b)c. ln sum, the predjcdon j5 brscd olx scanr cvidence allcl unproven .lsumptions rd js thclcfdre Bnlamount to merc specu.ladoo.Beforc I alrceulS ihal thc sequelB'iLLbcpopuiar, ict atonc profiLabie, would requirc bcrcr proof that wharcvcf fextucs aicaq'-rtfor tlc bopks poPulatjry io-da .alsodl?s/ larSeirowds to scc thc movic sequcl.To obtdn this soft ofproof, I would nc€d lo sufley rcadcrs of t}le book to dcternine thc book's aPPeal ?lld of coursescrcen lhc scqucl to sce whcrhcr or not i! holds similar ?ppcrt.
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Ho$' Ilxcunt Tltcarcr Compant, Can Incrc:rsc profi ts
ro , lx.g€rrhcarcrTh( direcrorrhcn .ccomn)to(ts r\,o cou.ses xcrionrr oI order "ro tuflhcr increas€profit5,: (l) producin8 pj:rls rh:rr havc b€€n rnosr successfut in !he narion.s tar8esr crr,es rnd (.2) hiring Adtib Theircr Conrp:rn!\ ftrndnisijrSdirccror. on rhc brsis rhrr corpor;[c contributions to dlib bxvc increrscddnmxricallv durirf rrr. trrrc. "ca.s sr,. l.,rs *o.r
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moling ro thc lrrgcr rh€arer_cspccjalt,, iI thc cosr of ,enrii8 t}lc t.r.,Gr: rhcarcr excccds rhc cosl of renring x sniljer onc. Tuming ro Lhc firsr prescrjplion for cntrancinSproltts, rhc dirccror,s rarionrletor ir rcslson rhc assumpriondlxr rhe tnsres ancttnrcresrsofthcarcr, gocrs in rhe cilv vherc ltTC s thcarerjs locarcd arc iimilar to those ofrtrcatcrn .8ocrs largc cirics. Howcvc., rhc dirccro, providcs no cvidence rhir rhis is rhc casc.Th€rcforc, I rcmai, un(
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Even if FIC s dirccror can convince mc rhar thc rvo pr€scriptions a.e likc\'!o incrcascFfC's profirs, rhe direcior concludcs roo hastity that cbese prescriprions .lrc rhe bcsr mcms of achrevmg fTC,s dcsrred profir Aolls Pcrhrpsonc or morc othcr corrsesof rcrjon worjJ be as .ff..ii* or"-ni. cffccLivcin mz-yirlli?jng ETC,S p.ofirs. \vir}lour wcigfring al ofefc,s opOons, rhc direcror simply carlnqtconvince mc rhar ETCshoutd adopr thc dirccror.; rc co mrnend-a on. Li ln rhc nnal analysis, rhc r.ccornn;dation U ,";,i.*.0 as ir sunds. To . botsrerir, t}re dirccror mjghr conducr a scjendfic survev of arca t})crrerSocrs ro dcrcrmine rhe sons of ETC proclucrionsarea rcsidcnrs zre most tilJy tir attend, and iI ETCI cur€nr $catcr is morc cxpenstveto renr thar a smalJcr one. whctlcr or nor tlrc demandfor rhosc producrions wxmnts ETC,S rccenrmove ro rhc lfigcr rhcatc. To bcrrercvalurrcthc.rFumcn!. I would
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fundmising director has wdrked for ,\dtib Ou.i"g,b. ,"-. rlrne period rhat corpo.areconrriburionsro Adlib havc rncrased, tt is unfair ro concludc tiar rhe lxrrer is arkiburable ro rhc fot-mcr. Undl ETC,S directo: €sriblish€sa clcrr.caus:rlconnecr
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thc costsof exPrnclinS Ilr th( siorc iokco. thc chrir failst(' consider studcnrs music-rhcmp\'progranr.,AccommodxtinS:rclditionrl miSl)t Omcg;r's cgLripmcnl, ficulr\- membefs.:rndevcD frcilitics.Such rcquir(:rddition;rl in rc\'cntrc. Nhiclr cxsclhc ch,ri.s coslsmi8hl vc^ wcll ouN,ciShnrxr8inNl proposxl s'ould trm ro ttc poor fm.ncill advicc. conclus'on s T()sum up. ncith(r thc x.Funrent penultimirt nor r,ltinrxrc providcdin tl)c mcmo. Pii)Pcrcvaluttionof is born our bl rhc rv(tcncc rhc formcr conclusion (i.c.. lhat OmcS:r Srrdurtes will ctsil)' find music-rbcr,rpr iobs) pould rcquirc (1) mor€ injormarion about thc of s rcPLrmrion OmeSa mnsic-thcEpt pralram :lmoog cmplo)'ers of mus;c (2) rc[able music-themp] cmPloJ'men! projcctions for reccnl .heripists and ihc colle8c gndurtcs. especiauvin the vicitiq' of Omega. To full)' assess uldmr.c claim (i.e., dlat an cxPmdcd music'tir€.rP)' Progr?m will chair's improvc Omcgi s financial sL1tus), I would nced rcliablc, dct iied projecrions of Omcgas mrl8hal cos|s aod tevenues should i( follon'thc chrir'i rccomficnd.Lion
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