POL V
The Butterfly Effect: understanding and mitigating the local consequences of climate change impacts
Donna Lorenz donna.lorenz@maunsell.com
Abstract The Butterfly Effect is the notion that tiny differences in initial conditions are amplified in the evolution of a dynamic system and directly affect the eventual outcome. In 1963 mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz proposed that the flapping of a butterfly’s wing would cause a disturbance that becomes exponentially amplified so as to eventually affect large-scale atmospheric motion. this was to illustrate the ‘sensitive dependence on initial conditions’; sensitivity also true in affecting the extent of damages experienced as a result of climate change. In a climate change context, The Butterfly Effect suggests the local consequences of climate change impacts will depend on their interaction with the economic, environmental, institutional, technological and demographic attributes unique to a city or region. It is this mix of factors that will determine the extent, both positively and negatively, to which climate change will be experienced locally. For a truly effective climate change response, it is imperative that regional risk assessments and adaptation strategies take into account not only the projected impacts but the full range of flow-on implications of those impacts and their sensitivity factors. Understanding of the sensitivity factors that will amplify or mitigate climate change impacts and implications enables government and business leaders to calculate the likely extent of localised damages if no adaptation is undertaken. this allows industries and communities to evaluate the likely significance of a particular impact and to consider how to adjust or counter the sensitivity factor to build resilience and reduce vulnerability. thus, it also assists in the local prioritisation of issues and responses. such a strategic response can also mean the required adaptation measures may be less extensive and thereby require less cost and time to implement.
The Lorenz Attractor
this paper discusses the flow-on implications of Australia’s projected climate change impacts and their relevant sensitivity factors. sensitivity factors include local dependence on resource-based industries, population and demographics, infrastructure resilience and capacity, emergency response capacity, institutional capacity and community information, skills and knowledge. to illustrate the flow-on effects of an extreme event, the paper also applies this discussion framework to the recent experience of Newcastle and the Hunter Valley in New south Wales, which encountered the ‘once in a generation storm’ on the Queens’ birthday 2007. the paper also builds on the research project, a national vulnerability assessment for all Australian settlements, undertaken by this author for the Australian Greenhouse Office during 2006.
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CSIR 27083_Abstracts_11.indd 112 7/9/07 4:22:40 PM