Forecasting
NOAA’s
Future
Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., U.S. Navy (Ret.)
Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans & Atmosphere
D.C. Chapter of AMS
February 27, 2006
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NOAA Vision & Mission
Current Events
NOAA Opportunities
Forecasting NOAA's Future—AMS DC Chapter 2
NOAA’s Vision
An informed society that uses a comprehensive
understanding of the role of the oceans, coasts and
atmosphere in the global ecosystem to make the best
social and economic decisions
Forecasting NOAA's Future—AMS DC Chapter 3
NOAA’s
Mission & Goals
To understand and predict changes in the Earth’s
environment and to conserve and manage coastal and
marine resources to meet the Nation’s economic,
social and environmental needs
Mission Goals:
Protect, restore, and manage the use of coastal and ocean resources through an
ecosystem approach to management
Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and
respond
Serve society’s needs for weather and water information
Support the Nation’s commerce with information for safe, efficient, and
environmentally sound transportation
Provide critical support for NOAA’s mission
Forecasting NOAA's Future—AMS DC Chapter 4
Current Events
NOAA Budget
Hurricane Response
Science in the Media
Forecasting NOAA's Future—AMS DC Chapter 5
NOAA Budget
($ in Billions)
5.0
4.5
$3.9 $3.9
4.0 $3.7
3.5 $3.3 $3.3 $3.6
$3.6
$3.1 $3.3 $3.4
3.0 $3.1 $3.2
2.5 $2.4 $2.8
$2.4
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
FY 2000 FY 2001 FY 2002 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007
President’s Budget Enacted
Forecasting NOAA's Future—AMS DC Chapter 6
Current Environment
Appropriations Reorganization a Surprise
NOAA will now be considered by both the Senate
and House subcommittees with:
=$16.5B FY ‘06 budget request
=$5.6B FY ’06 budget request
=$3.6B FY ’06 budget request
Although budget allocations should cover all of the requests,
it is ultimately up to the Subcommittees to divvy up the
money
Forecasting NOAA's Future—AMS DC Chapter 7
Summary by Line Office
$ in millions
FY 07 Percent
Current Net Program FY 07 President’s Change
Line Office FY 06 Enacted Program Increase Budget (over Current Program)
NOS $590.5 $369.1 $44.1 $413.1 11.9%
NMFS $811.5 $656.6 $81.1 $737.7 12.4%
OAR $379.6 $310.4 $38.2 $348.7 12.3%
NWS $848.2 $838.4 $43.5 $881.9 5.2%
NESDIS $952.2 $916.4 $117.4 $1,033.9 12.8%
PS/Other $491.0 $385.1 $21.0 $406.1 5.5%
Total $3,911.5 $3,338.8 $345.4 $3,684.1 10.3%
*Total includes financing adjustments
Forecasting NOAA's Future—AMS DC Chapter 8
Hurricane Response
One NOAA response
Forecasts
Wetland assessment (satellites)
Citation flights – digital imagery
NRTs – NOAA Ships
Oil spill response
Environmental assessment cruises
Levee
break
August 31, 2005 provided by NOAA
Forecasting NOAA's Future—AMS DC Chapter 9
Science in the Media
Robert Ricks
Max Mayfield NWS Lead Meteorologist, Gerry Bell
Forecasting NOAA's Future—AMS DC Chapter 10
NOAA Opportunities
GEOSS
NWS Tiger Teams
NOAA Education
Forecasting NOAA's Future—AMS DC Chapter 11
NOAA
NOAA’s mission is complex, involving
biological, chemical, and physical issues—all
intertwined.
Large-scale (regional to global)
multidisciplinary studies are
necessary to achieve understanding
of our environment.
A collective NOAA is critical to completing our
mission and solving the major environmental
challenges that face our nation and planet.
Forecasting NOAA's Future—AMS DC Chapter 12
GEOSS
Integrated Observations & Data Management
Forecasting NOAA's Future—AMS DC Chapter 13
GEO Moves Forward
Working Towards Implementation
Received approval for formal GEO organization and
10-year implementation plan
Held GEO-I in May 2005, and GEO-II in December 2005
New GEO Secretariat Director, Jose Achache
Agreed to 2006 Work Plan and adopted a budget
Formally created GEO Committees
GEONETCast as tangible near term project to implement GEOSS
United States announced intention to move GOES satellite to a position to help offset the
lack of sounder data over South America
Forecasting NOAA's Future—AMS DC Chapter 14
USGEO
Near-Term Opportunities
USGEO focusing on 6 Near-Term Opportunities
Disasters
Drought / National Integrated Drought Information System
Land Observation
Air Quality
Sea Level
Data Management
Currently developing plans for all the Near-Term
opportunities
Will be available for public review in the next several months
Forecasting NOAA's Future—AMS DC Chapter 15
Near Term Opportunity
Disasters—Tsunami Warning System
USGEO Near-Term
Opportunity
Improved tsunami and coastal
inundation forecast and warning
capability
GEO Near-Term Effort
Working Group on Tsunami Activities
continuing to provide integration
observation requirements to the Indian
Ocean Tsunami Early Warning System
effort
Forecasting NOAA's Future—AMS DC Chapter 16
Near Term Opportunity
National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
Identifies critical gaps in the nation’s infrastructure, which
inhibit our ability to most effectively reduce the impact of
drought
Early opportunities to address gaps include:
Improvements in the frequency, timeliness, and density of key observations
Creation of an Internet portal to provide a drought early warning system
Establishment of a NIDIS operations office to ensure optimization of existing Federal, state, local
and private sector observations and information delivery
Tracks to GEOSS and IEOS benefit areas
Water Resource Management
Disasters
Sustainable Agriculture
Climate Variability and Change
Forecasting NOAA's Future—AMS DC Chapter 17
Near Term Opportunity
Land Observing
Identifies three enhancements that would be the basis of a
functional GLOS:
Mid-decadal global data set of high resolution (30m) satellite imagery in 2006
Global land data base at high resolution (30m) and the seasonal collection of such data (i.e.,
continuity of Landsat-type observations)
Extension of a network (Global Integrated Trends Analysis Network) that combines ground data
and earth observations from aircraft and space to evaluate land cover trends
Tracks to GEOSS and IEOS benefit areas:
Terrestrial Ecosystems
Climate Variability and Change
Disasters
Biodiversity
Sustainable Agriculture/Combating Desertification
Forecasting NOAA's Future—AMS DC Chapter 18
Near Term Opportunity
Air Quality
Noting that more than one-third of the U.S. population lives in
areas that have unhealthy air quality (AQ), causing an
estimated tens of thousands of deaths and costing society more
than $100B, this plan identifies need for:
Integrated Observation-Model Air Quality Fields
Systems for Utilizing Observations to Improve AQ Forecasts
Assessments of Key Air Quality Processes
Improved Emissions Inventories
Improved International Transport Assessments
Tracks to GEOSS and IEOS benefit areas:
Human Health
Weather Forecasting
Climate Variability and Change
Forecasting NOAA's Future—AMS DC Chapter 19
NWS Tiger Teams
IT Consolidation Team
Concept of Operations Prototype Team
Aviation Demonstration Team
Forecasting NOAA's Future—AMS DC Chapter 20
NOAA Education
NOAA’s Environmental Literacy Grants
(new in 2005)
Ernest F. Hollings Undergraduate
Scholarship Program (new in 2005)
110 students coming this summer!
2006 applications due out this spring!
Interagency Ocean Education
Coordination (new in 2006)
Expand NOAA’s Authority for Education
NOAA Organic Act – build on education authorization in the
2006 appropriations bill
Forecasting NOAA's Future—AMS DC Chapter 21
The Future is Bright!
NOAA is:
An Effective, Successful Organization With World-wide Recognition
Composed of Talented, Experienced & Dedicated People
Critical to Meeting the Nation’s & the World’s Economic & Environmental Challenges
Organizationally Positioned to Provide Leadership
Where Science Gains Value
Forecasting NOAA's Future—AMS DC Chapter 22
Questions?