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					         Railroads in Illinois



    Analyzing
Population Growth
in Carbondale and
Du Quoin with the
 expansion of the
 Railroad over 150
       years.
The 1800’s witnessed dramatic
expansion of the railroads
throughout the United States.
Early
Railroad
Planning
Map for
Illinois
                 1852 - 1854
• Illinois Central Railroad builds railroad line from
  Cairo to Chicago
• Entrepreneurs in Du Quoin and Carbondale
  purchase land near the planned rail lines.
• The cities of Du Quoin and Carbondale are
  surveyed and plots sold to potential citizens.
• Both cities incorporate in 1853
• The first train rolls through the cities on July 4th,
  1854.
Carbondale Depot
Carbondale
Depot at Du Quoin
Southern Illinois Railroad Plans 1854
Southern Illinois Railroad Plans
Southern Illinois Grows
       Railroad Depots now indicated on maps.




1856                                1861
Passenger Train Travel
     Year   Passengers
    1882          289
    1890          520
    1900          577
    1910          972
    1920         1270
    1930          708
    1940          456
    1950          488
    1960          327
    1970          289
    1980          281
    1990           22
Railroad travel was the
preferred mode in the
 early 1900’s and the
number of passengers
  grew dramatically.




                          Photos supplied by family
                          of Celeste Naumer Flavell
          Passenger Traffic Data
                  North American Passenger Traffic on Railways
                           in Millions of Passengers


1400
1200
1000
 800
 600
 400
 200
   0
   1860    1880        1900        1920        1940         1960   1980   2000

                                   Millions of Passengers
                             Population
                    Carbondale            Du Quoin
Census       1870        3370                2212

 Data        1880        2213                2807
             1890        2382                4052
Through      1900        3318                4353
 1920        1910        5411                5454
             1920        6267                7285



 Data as
shown on
  TI-83
Calculator
                       Populations through 1920
                                                         Historical Population

                   30000
Number of people




                   25000
                   20000
                   15000
                   10000
                   5000
                      0
                           1850

                                  1860

                                         1870

                                                1880

                                                       1890

                                                              1900

                                                                     1910

                                                                            1920

                                                                                   1930

                                                                                          1940

                                                                                                 1950

                                                                                                        1960

                                                                                                               1970

                                                                                                                      1980

                                                                                                                             1990

                                                                                                                                    2000

                                                                                                                                           2010
                                                                        Census Years

                                                                     Carbondale             Du Quoin
Exponential Regressions
   Du Quoin



              Carbondale




                       Note: Logistic Regression
                       will not work with the
                       given data. The calculator
                       gave a domain error.
        Predictions for 2000
     Carbondale
        Du Quoin

                       Prediction           Actual

  Carbondale             22,229            25,063

  Du Quoin               44,860             6,448

Evaluate the exponential regression equations using the
          data through 1920 at the year 2000
          How good was prediction
                Du Quoin

                                     Carbondale
                                                      Using Exponential
                                                      Regressions,
                                                      Carbondale was very
                                           Du Quoin
                                                      close, but Du Quoin
                                                      was far from correct.
Original regression lines with all data.


       Carbondale: Predicted
Moving on to 2000
Current Amtrak Routes
New Carbondale Depot
Current Du Quoin Depot
Only 2 stops per day in Du Quoin
                 Carbondale   Du Quoin
Census    1870        3370       2212
          1880        2213       2807
 Data
          1890        2382       4052
Through   1900        3318       4353
 2000     1910        5411       5454
          1920        6267       7285
          1930        7528       7593
          1940        8550       7515
          1950       10921       7147
          1960       14670       6558
          1970       22816       6691
          1980       26287       6594
          1990       27033       6697
          2000       25063       6448
                      Populations through 2000
                                         Historical Population

                   30000
Number of people




                   25000
                   20000
                   15000
                   10000
                   5000
                      0
                           1850
                           1860
                                  1870
                                  1880
                                         1890
                                         1900
                                                1910
                                                1920
                                                       1930
                                                       1940
                                                                1950
                                                                1960
                                                                       1970
                                                                       1980
                                                                              1990
                                                                              2000
                                                                                     2010
                                                 Census Years

                                              Carbondale   Du Quoin
    Exponential Graphs
                             Carbondale




                               Du Quoin




All data was used to compute regression curve.
     Exponential Predictions

             Exponential   Actual   Exponential
              prediction population prediction
               for 2000   for 2000   for 2050
Carbondale     32,778     25,063      93,618

Du Quoin       8,625       6,448      12,222
      Logistic Regressions
Carbondale        Du Quoin




                             Carbondale




                             Du Quoin
           Logistic Predictions

              Logistic      Actual      Logistic
             prediction   population   prediction
              for 2000     for 2000     for 2050
Carbondale    28,083       25,063       33,054

Du Quoin       6,975        6,448        6,977
                    Conclusions
The populations of Carbondale and Du Quoin can be modeled
with a logistic equation that will predict population more
accurately that an exponential regression.
It appeared that both towns were growing exponentially prior
to 1920 due to the fast growth of railroad usage for travel and
freight.
Carbondale still grew at a near exponential rate due to the
expansion of SIU in the 1960’s. Du Quoin’s population leveled
off and has shown little change in many years. Has SIU
originally located just north of Du Quoin as was discussed,
the population curves may be reversed.
                           Railroad Movies
A romance of the rail / Thomas A. Edison, Inc.
CREATED/PUBLISHED United States : Edison Manufacturing Co., 1903.

Black Diamond express / Thomas A. Edison, Inc. ; producer, James White.
CREATED/PUBLISHED United States : Edison Manufacturing Co., 1896.

Arrival of McKinley's funeral train at Canton, Ohio / Thomas A. Edison, Inc.
OTHER TITLES Funeral train arriving at Canton Station
CREATED/PUBLISHED United States : Thomas A. Edison, Inc., 1901.

Going through the tunnel / Thomas A. Edison, Inc. ; producer, James White.
CREATED/PUBLISHED United States : Edison Manufacturing Co., 1898

Freight train / Thomas A. Edison, Inc. ; producer, James White.
CREATED/PUBLISHED United States : Edison Manufacturing Co., 1898.
Current Passenger Train




       View a short movie
         Links and References
         SIU-Carbondale Site for Adventures of the American Mind
                  http://www.aam.siu.edu/siuc/index.asp
                      American Memories Collection
                            http://memory.loc.gov/
                          Library of Congress Site
                              http://www.loc.gov/
                 Southern Illinois University at Carbondale
                             http://www.siuc.edu/
                         Citing Internet Resources –
http://www.classroom.com/community/connection/howto/citeresources.jhtml

            Perry County Historical Society Book – 1984
              United States Census 1850 through 2000
           International Historical Statistics, The Americas
                     City of Carbondale Website

				
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