Docstoc

scottish_migration

Document Sample
scottish_migration Powered By Docstoc
					  MIGRATION TO AND FROM
 HIGHLAND & THE ISLANDS –
WHAT DATA SOURCES TELL US

    Cecilia Macintyre & Alan Fleming
              Statisticians
   General Register Office for Scotland

                  General Register Office
                              for
                     SCOTLAND
               information about Scotland's people
     Overview of Presentation
• The work of GROS Demography and
  Census Analysis teams
• Demographic trends in Scotland
• Migration in Highlands - Census 2001
• Migration sources for the Mid-Year
  estimates
• Getting further information
                    General Register Office
                                for
                       SCOTLAND
                 information about Scotland's people
      Work of Demography team
               Regular outputs
• Mid-year estimates
• Population projections for sub-national
  areas
• Small area population estimates
• Life tables
• Marital status estimates

                     General Register Office
                                 for
                        SCOTLAND
                  information about Scotland's people
       Current developments
• Small area population estimates for data
  zones
• Review of population projections systems
• Implementation of quality review of
  international migration review
• Wider dissemination of migration data
• Contribution to Census alternatives work
                    General Register Office
                                for
                       SCOTLAND
                 information about Scotland's people
                    Research

• Scottish Enterprise Future Skills project on
  migration in Scotland

• ESRC/SE commissioned demography research
  programme (£300,000)



                        General Register Office
                                    for
                           SCOTLAND
                     information about Scotland's people
Estimated population

 5,057,400 at 30 June 2003



            General Register Office
                        for
               SCOTLAND
         information about Scotland's people
                      Figure 2: Estimates population by age and sex, 30 June 2002

      90

      85
      80

      75

      70

      65

      60

      55

      50
                                                                                                      Females
age




      45
                                                                                                      Males
      40

      35

      30

      25

      20

      15

      10

      5

      0
           50   40   30       20       10                0               10       20   30   40   50
                                               persons ('000s)
                                               General Register Office
                                                             for
                                                  SCOTLAND
                                            information about Scotland's people
              Age structure
• Peaks at 55yrs and mid-30s - baby booms
  after second world war and in the 60s

• Recent decline in births reflected in tapering
  of young ages

• Relatively more elderly women in ages 75
  and over
                      General Register Office
                                  for
                         SCOTLAND
                   information about Scotland's people
                                   Figure 5: Live births, Scotland, 1901 - 2002



140,000



120,000



100,000



 80,000



 60,000



 40,000



 20,000



     0
      1901 1906 1911 1916 1921 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
                                                  General Register Office
                                                               for
                                                      SCOTLAND
                                                information about Scotland's people
     Fewer babies, later babies
• Baby boom in 60s due to increased birth
  rates for women in their 30s

• Since then, birth rates have fallen

• Fertility rates for women 30+ have
  increased
                      General Register Office
                                  for
                         SCOTLAND
                   information about Scotland's people
           Figure 1.2 Natural change and net migration, 1951-2002


      50
Persons
 ('000s)
      40


     30


     20


     10


      0


    -10


    -20


    -30


    -40


    -50

                            Natural Change (births-deaths)    Net Migration

                           General Register Office
                                       for
                              SCOTLAND
                        information about Scotland's people
         Projected population
            (2002-based)
• Population of Scotland is projected to
  reduce to 4.84 million by 2027

• Births are projected to decline from 52,000
  to 45,000

• Deaths are projected to decline from 58,000
  to 54,000 in 2017 and then increase
                     General Register Office
                                 for
                        SCOTLAND
                  information about Scotland's people
                                             Figure 4: The projected percentage change in age structure of Scotland's
                                                                           population,
                                                                                                  1
                                                                              2002-2027




                    70%


                                                                                                                        61%
                    60%


                    50%


                    40%                                                                                        36%
percentage change




                    30%


                    20%


                    10%


                     0%


                    -10%
                                                                                                         -9%


                    -20%                                -17%
                                   -20%
                                                                          -23%
                    -30%
                                   0-15                 16-29             30-44                        45-59   60-74    75+
                                                                                            age
            1
                    2002-Based projections                                General Register Office
                                                                                      for
                                                                             SCOTLAND
                                                                       information about Scotland's people
         Projected population
• Population of Highlands is projected to
  reduce to 200,000 million by 2018

• Births are projected to decline from 2,000 to
  1,700

• Deaths are projected to increase from 2,400
  to 2,500 in 2018
                     General Register Office
                                 for
                        SCOTLAND
                  information about Scotland's people
                                  Figure 4: The projected percentage change in population age structure,
                                                              2002-2018
                    50%
                                                                                                                   44%

                    40%
                                                                                                       36%

                                                                                                                         29%
                    30%
                                                                                                             23%

                    20%
percentage change




                                                                                                 10%
                    10%
                                                                                       3%

                     0%

                                                  -4%
                    -10%
                                            -9%


                    -20%          -18%

                           -25%                                    -24%                                            Highlands
                    -30%
                                                                                                                   Scotland
                                                            -34%
                    -40%
                               0-15           16-29            30-44                      45-59         60-74        75+
                                                                             Age
   1
               2002-based projections
                                                              General Register Office
                                                                          for
                                                                 SCOTLAND
                                                           information about Scotland's people
Migration in Highlands - Census
             2001




              General Register Office
                          for
                 SCOTLAND
           information about Scotland's people
     Work of Census Analysis &
     Customer Services Branch
• Answering ad-hoc queries from the Census,
  mainly 2001.
• Producing remaining outputs from the 2001
  Census.
• Looking at the quality of the 2001 Census,
  learning lessons for 2011.

                    General Register Office
                                for
                       SCOTLAND
                 information about Scotland's people
 Question on migration in the 2001
             Census
• Simply asks “What was your usual address
  one year ago?”
• Offers the form filler 3 choices of which
  box to tick:
  1. The address they currently live at.
  2. No usual address one year ago.
  3. “Elsewhere, please write in below”.
• Those in 2 and 3 are “migrants”.
                    General Register Office
                                for
                       SCOTLAND
                 information about Scotland's people
  Scotland’s Census 2001, Statistics on Migration
• Occasional paper published on 25th January 2005.
• Looks at the characteristics of people who said on
  their Census form that they had moved address
  within the last year.
• Follows on from earlier migration information:
  1. Chapter 2 in 2003 Registrar General’s Report.
  2. Migration tables (e.g. T33 & T34) in published
  volumes / SCROL website.
  3. Origin-Destination Special Migration Statistics
  (SMS), accessible via SASPAC and WICID.

                        General Register Office
                                    for
                           SCOTLAND
                     information about Scotland's people
  The advantages of the Census for
          migration data
• The most comprehensive source of data
  about individual migrants and their
  characteristics.
• Covers the entire resident population (i.e. a
  100% sample).
• Able to look at the situation at a local level.
• Simultaneous Censuses in other parts of the
  UK.
                      General Register Office
                                  for
                         SCOTLAND
                   information about Scotland's people
            The down side
• Only occurs every 10 years.
• Only compares situation at Census time
  with one year before.
• Can’t measure multiple moves.
• Possibility of form filler error.
• Can’t tell how many people have left for
  overseas.
                     General Register Office
                                 for
                        SCOTLAND
                  information about Scotland's people
    Situation for Scotland – (1)
• 5.06 million residents in 2001.
• 4.47 million (88 per cent) did not move
  address.
• Leaving around 600,000 people who did
  move in year before Census.



                    General Register Office
                                for
                       SCOTLAND
                 information about Scotland's people
     Situation for Scotland – (2)
Of those who did move:
• 360 thousand (61 per cent) moved within same
  council area.
• 114 thousand (19 per cent) moved within Scotland but
  across council areas.
• 36½ thousand (6 per cent) had “no usual address one
  year ago”.
• 48 thousand (8 per cent) had moved from rest of UK –
  around the same as moved the opposite way.
• 29 thousand (5 per cent) had moved from abroad.
                        General Register Office
                                    for
                           SCOTLAND
                     information about Scotland's people
In-migrants to council areas from elsewhere in Scotland
                              40
                                   Stirling    Scotland                  Eilean Siar     Orkney
                              35

                                                                                       Shetland   Dumfries &
                                                                                                  Galloway
                              30

                                                                    Highland
Number per 1,000 population




                              25



                              20



                              15



                              10



                               5



                               0
                                                 General Register Office
                                                             for
                                                    SCOTLAND
                                              information about Scotland's people
                                   Out-migrants from council areas to elsewhere in Scotland

                              40

                                    Stirling                 Shetland              Orkney                     Scotland   Highland
                              35

                                               Eilean Siar
                              30
Number per 1,000 population




                                                                                                                          Dumfries &
                              25
                                                                                                                          Galloway
                              20



                              15



                              10



                               5



                               0

                                                                           General Register Office
                                                                                       for
                                                                              SCOTLAND
                                                                        information about Scotland's people
                                      Net migration for people moving between Scottish
                              15
                                                       local authorities
                                    West Lothian                                                              Orkney
                                                                                        Shetland
                              10


                                                   Highland                                         Eilean Siar
Number per 1,000 population




                               5




                               0




                               -5




                              -10




                              -15
                                                                 General Register Office
                                                                             for
                                                                    SCOTLAND
                                                              information about Scotland's people
    Net migration (per 1,000 resident population) by
      age group for people moving between Scottish
                     local authorities
Age group       The 4 city       H&I         Rest of
                authorities                 Scotland
0-15               -12.7           -0.8         4.6
16-24               50.3         -57.7        -23.9
25-34               -7.9           -5.3         4.4
35-44              -11.0            0.0         4.3
45-54               -4.1            2.0         1.3
55-64               -5.6            1.3         1.8
65+                 -5.1            1.3         2.0
Total                0.1           -5.4         0.4
                         General Register Office
                                     for
                            SCOTLAND
                      information about Scotland's people
                                   In-migrants to council areas from elsewhere in UK
                              25
                                     Moray
                                                 Orkney    Shetland                       Eilean Siar
                              20

                                      Highland                                                            Scotland
Number per 1,000 population




                              15
                                                                                                              West
                                                                                                              Dunbartonshire


                              10
                                                                                                        North
                                                                                                        Lanarkshire

                              5




                              0


                                                             General Register Office
                                                                         for
                                                                SCOTLAND
                                                          information about Scotland's people
                              25
                                   Out-migrants from council areas to elsewhere in UK
                                    Moray
                                                                 Scotland
                                                  Orkney
                                       Shetland                                             Highland
                              20
Number per 1,000 population




                              15
                                                                                                 Eilean Siar

                                                                                                                  Falkirk
                              10                                                                        North
                                                                                                        Lanarkshire


                               5




                               0
                                                         General Register Office
                                                                     for
                                                            SCOTLAND
                                                      information about Scotland's people
                                   Net migration for people moving between Scotland
                              8
                                                     and rest of UK
                                    Argyll & Bute
                                                    Orkney
                              6


                                    Highland
                                                      Eilean Siar                      Scotland    Shetland
                              4
Number per 1,000 population




                              2




                              0




                              -2




                              -4




                              -6
                                                                General Register Office
                                                                            for
                                                                   SCOTLAND
                                                             information about Scotland's people
    Net migration (per 1,000 resident population) by
     age group for people moving between Scotland
                     and rest of UK
Age         The 4 city H & I        Rest of Scotland
group       authorities            Scotland
0-15           -0.9         3.8        0.5        0.3
16-24           7.7        -9.6       -8.0       -2.7
25-34          -4.2        -1.8       -0.4       -1.7
35-44           0.0         4.8        0.7        0.8
45-54           0.3         5.7        0.7        0.9
55-64          -0.5         5.1        1.7        1.4
65+            -0.5         2.6        0.9        0.6
Total           0.2         2.3       -0.2        0.0
                        General Register Office
                                    for
                           SCOTLAND
                     information about Scotland's people
  Where did net gains / net losses occur with
        rest of UK (exc. Scotland)?
Government Office Region                        The 4            H&I    Rest of
                                                cities                   Scot
North East / North West                             410           -40    -183
Yorkshire & The Humber                              694           174     -81
East & West Midlands                                    76        152    102
East                                                 -61          150    -249
London                                            -952            107     -31
South East / South West                           -148            127    -225
Wales & Northern Ireland                            193           -39    -119
TOTAL                                               212           631    -786
                              General Register Office
                                          for
                                 SCOTLAND
                           information about Scotland's people
                                   In-migrants to council areas from abroad
                              18
                                       City of Edinburgh
                              16
                                         Aberdeen City
                              14                                   Scotland
                                       Glasgow City
Number per 1,000 population




                              12                                                 Highland

                              10          Dundee City                                            Shetland

                                                                                                            Orkney
                               8                                                                                       East
                                                                                                                      Ayrshire
                               6



                               4                                                                        Eilean Siar

                               2



                               0
                                                              General Register Office
                                                                          for
                                                                 SCOTLAND
                                                           information about Scotland's people
       Rates of in-migration from abroad
        (per 1,000 resident population)
Area                                                        Rate per 1,000
SCOTLAND                                                         5.7
The four city authorities                                       12.0
Highland and the islands                                         4.7
Highland                                                         5.4
Shetland                                                         4.1
Orkney                                                           2.9
Eilean Siar                                                      1.5
Rest of Scotland                                                 3.2
                         General Register Office
                                     for
                            SCOTLAND
                      information about Scotland's people
   The countries where the most number of
      migrants from abroad came from
Country of     The 4 city H &                             Rest of   Scotland
origin         authorities I                               Scot
USA             1,508                     83              1,284      2,875
Germany          982                     467              1,238      2,687
Australia       1,320                    118               928       2,366
France          1,178                     49               443       1,670
South Africa     459                      42               675       1,176
Spain            767                      21               316       1,104
Ireland          612                      41               377       1,030
Canada           570                      50               383       1,003
                       General Register Office
                                   for
                          SCOTLAND
                    information about Scotland's people
 Where did the migrants from Germany
          to H & I move to?
• Almost all of the gain (97%) was in
  Highland.
• More than 80% went to 2 Highland wards –
  Raigmore & Ardersier, Croy and Petty.
• A large part of these were people who
  worked in the armed forces (Fort George).

                    General Register Office
                                for
                       SCOTLAND
                 information about Scotland's people
Migration sources in the MYE




             General Register Office
                         for
                SCOTLAND
          information about Scotland's people
      Mid Year Estimates Process


 Census                                                           Census
             Mid      Mid                              Mid
End April    Census   Census                           Census   End April –
– 1st year   Year     Year+1                       ……. Year+9    1st year of
of decade                                                         decade




                         General Register Office
                                     for
                            SCOTLAND
                      information about Scotland's people
         Components of Mid Year Estimates


                                                          DEATHS



BIRTHS

                                                          MIGRATION



                       General Register Office
                                   for
                          SCOTLAND
                    information about Scotland's people
     Migration (and other adjustments)

• Proxy Indicators
  – NHSCR (NHS Central Register)
  – CHI (Community Health Index)
• Surveys
  – IPS (International Passenger Survey)
• Other Information
  – Armed Forces
  – Home Office (Asylum Seekers)
                      General Register Office
                                  for
                         SCOTLAND
                   information about Scotland's people
   Initial Population and                                                                              Final
      Natural Change                                   Migration                                     Population


                                                                                                     Armed Forces
                                                                                       Visitor
                                                                                      switchers
           Deaths

                     Population
                        rolled                       Controlled
Previous            forward one                   migration (minus
year’s                   year                                                                                Final
estimate              (omitting                   Asylum seekers)                                          Population
                       Armed
                       Forces)
           Births

                             Migration to                                               Unmeasured
                              and from                                                               Asylum seekers
                                                                                         migration
                             E&W and NI
                                                                      International
                                                                        migration




                                               General Register Office
                                                           for
                                                  SCOTLAND
                                            information about Scotland's people
  Why use the CHI and NHSCR
• In general, people use health services fairly
  regularly
• The CHI and NHSCR databases are
  reasonably comprehensive and well
  maintained
• With suitable anonymisation, the data from
  these sources is available
                      General Register Office
                                  for
                         SCOTLAND
                   information about Scotland's people
          NHSCR and CHI
• NHSCR Movements are recorded between
  Health Board Areas

• CHI movements allow migration to be
  measured below health board area



                   General Register Office
                               for
                      SCOTLAND
                information about Scotland's people
          Migration issues
• Unmeasured migration adjustment used
  following Census 2001
• Gross migration series unavailable
• Comparison of NHSCR vs. Census




                   General Register Office
                               for
                      SCOTLAND
                information about Scotland's people
   Quality Review of International
             Migration
• Report published Sep 2003
• Improvements to method of estimating
  UK total
• Review method of allocating migrants
  to countries (and regions of England)
• Consider potential for other sources

                    General Register Office
                                for
                       SCOTLAND
                 information about Scotland's people
Web links to GROS publications (all preceded
by www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/)


• 2003 Registrar General’s Annual Report :
  annrep/03annual-report/index.html
• Occasional paper on migration :
  occpapers/scotlands_census_2001_statistics_
  on_migration/index.html
• Latest (2003) mid-year population estimates :
  poptest/03mid-year-estimates/index.html
• Latest (2003-based) population projections :
  popproj/03population-projections.html
                      General Register Office
                                  for
                         SCOTLAND
                   information about Scotland's people
        Publications to come
• Gaelic Report – likely to be published
  around July/August 2005
• Travel Occasional Paper – late 2005.
• Settlements/Localities – publication due
  around August 2005 covering 2001-2003



                     General Register Office
                                 for
                        SCOTLAND
                  information about Scotland's people
      Availability of migration data


• Population Trends
• Key Population and Vital Statistics
  (VS)
• NHSCR based tables of flows by
  age/sex available but not on web
• International migration (MN )

                    General Register Office
                                for
                       SCOTLAND
                 information about Scotland's people
  Further information about the Census
  and population estimates/projections
• Contact GROS Customer Services on either
  (0131) 314 4254 or customer@gro-
  scotland.gsi.gov.uk.




                   General Register Office
                               for
                      SCOTLAND
                information about Scotland's people

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:0
posted:12/10/2011
language:
pages:49