FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE TUESDAY, APRIL 14, 2009, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT Timothy Winters / Aneta Erdie Service Sector Statistics Division (301) 763-2713 CB09-51
ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES March 2009
Notice of Revision: Monthly retail sales and inventories were revised based on the results of the 2007 Annual Retail
Trade Survey. The Annual Revision of Monthly Retail and Food Services showing revised data can be found on our website at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/benchmark/2009/html/annrev09.html. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $344.4 billion, a decrease of 1.1 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 9.4 percent (±0.7%) below March 2008. Total sales for the January through March 2009 period were down 8.8 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The January 2009 to February 2009 percent change was revised from -0.1 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.3 percent (±0.3%)*. Retail trade sales were down 1.1 percent (±0.7%) from February 2009 and 10.7 percent (±0.7%) below last year. Gasoline stations sales were down 34.0 percent (±1.5%) from March 2008 and motor vehicle and parts dealers sales were down 23.5 percent (±2.3%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau’s full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
From Previous M onth
4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 -16 -18 -20 -22 -24 -26
From Previous Year
January Total
February Ex Auto Auto
March Gen Mer
Total
Ex Auto
Auto
Gen Mer
The Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services for April is scheduled to be released May 13, 2009 at 8:30 a.m. EDT. For information, visit the Census Bureau’s Web site at . This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s STAT-USA (202-482-1986). * The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.
Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, by Kind of Business
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)
Not Adjusted NAICS code
1
Adjusted2 2008 2009 Mar.3 (a) Feb. (p)
348,359 290,844 309,246 96,663 57,515 50,926 (NA) (NA) 8,370 (NA) (NA) 9,066 7,279 1,787 24,645 20,585 49,239 43,931 3,578 21,037 17,320 28,339
Kind of Business
3 Month Total
% Chg.
2009 Mar.3 (a)
338,716 278,617 299,742 (*) 60,099 53,483 (*) (*) 7,951 (*) (*) 7,796 (*) (*) 23,741 (*) 47,673 42,888 (*) 21,504 (*) 27,115
2008 Jan. (r)
347,311 288,038 308,613 95,550 59,273 52,720 (NA) (NA) 8,326 (NA) (NA) 9,007 7,254 1,753 24,762 20,590 49,308 44,063 3,591 20,910 17,198 27,474
2009 Retail & food services, total ……………………………….
Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts) …
966,116 800,901
2008
-10.1 -6.8 -11.5 (*) -23.2 -25.5 (*) (*) -13.9 (*) (*) -5.5 (*) (*) -11.6 (*) -0.1 -0.5 (*) 2.2 (*) -34.1
Feb. (p)
308,599 255,952 273,006 83,579 52,647 46,750 35,603 5,897 7,466 4,434 3,032 8,492 6,857 1,635 18,528 16,015 44,392 39,933 2,959 19,985 16,558 24,145
Jan. (r)
318,801 266,332 282,077 84,003 52,469 46,552 36,334 5,917 7,677 4,370 3,307 8,607 6,964 1,643 19,044 16,616 48,749 44,239 3,106 20,910 17,370 25,194
Mar.
Feb.
Mar. (r)
380,171 306,746 342,444 98,272 73,425 67,011 (NA) (NA) 9,467 (NA) (NA) 9,427 7,609 1,818 26,971 22,998 48,671 43,649 3,452 20,233 16,765 42,253
Feb. (r)
378,191 304,410 340,684 97,271 73,781 67,405 (NA) (NA) 9,445 (NA) (NA) 9,199 7,375 1,824 27,538 23,608 48,367 43,400 3,421 20,260 16,762 41,523
378,755 300,572 340,236 93,727 78,183 71,769 56,849 6,414 9,136 5,100 4,036 8,659 6,886 1,773 25,703 21,802 48,557 43,824 3,176 20,779 17,184 41,281
348,876 344,380 278,636 288,203 313,244 305,830 87,385 (*) 70,240 64,304 51,188 5,936 8,822 5,063 3,759 8,857 7,146 1,711 21,783 19,264 45,351 40,970 2,976 20,078 16,712 36,789 56,177 49,659 (NA) (NA) 8,231 (NA) (NA) 8,535 (*) (*) 24,488 (*) 49,469 44,123 (*) 21,124 (*) 27,896
441 4411, 4412 44111
4413
442 4421 4422 443 44311, 13 44312 444 4441 445 4451 4453 446 44611 447 448
Retail …..……………………………. 854,825 (*) GAFO4………………………....……...……...………….. Motor vehicle & parts dealers ……. 165,215 Auto & other motor veh. dealers . 146,785 New car dealers ………………. (*) Auto parts, acc. & tire stores…… (*) Furniture & home furn. stores …… Furniture stores ………………….. Home furnishings stores ………..
23,094 (*) (*)
Electronics & appliance stores …… 24,895 Appl., T.V. & camera……………… (*) Computer & software stores……. (*) Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers……………………. Building mat. & sup. dealers …… Food & beverage stores……………. Grocery stores ………………….. Beer, wine & liquor stores ……… Health & personal care stores ……. Pharmacies & drug stores ……… Gasoline stations …………………… Clothing & clothing accessories stores …………………………….….. Men's clothing stores …………… Women's clothing stores ……….. Family clothing stores …………… Shoe stores ……………………… Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores………………………… General merchandise stores………. Department stores (ex. L.D.)…….. Department stores (incl. L.D.)5…… Other general merch. stores…. .. Warehouse clubs & supercenters…………………. All oth. gen. merch. stores…… Miscellaneous store retailers …….. Nonstore retailers ………………….. Elect. shopping & m/o houses …. Food services & drinking places …
61,313 (*) 140,814 127,060 (*) 62,399 (*) 76,454
45,569 (*) (*) (*) (*)
-6.4 (*) (*) (*) (*)
16,541 (*) (*) (*) (*)
15,171 623 2,417 5,713 1,918
13,857 652 2,299 5,461 1,663
18,119 816 3,406 6,751 2,285
16,128 722 2,785 5,680 1,999
17,939 (*) (*) (NA) (*)
18,266 (S) 3,044 (NA) 2,215
17,775 (S) 2,982 (NA) 2,087
18,901 (S) 3,349 (NA) 2,201
18,655 (S) 3,359 (NA) 2,221
44811 44812 44814 4482 451
19,367 133,847 40,277 (*) (*) (*) (*) 26,010 75,848 (*) 111,291
-1.8 -0.3 -8.1 (*) (*) (*) (*) -5.4 -4.7 (*) 2.0
6,449 46,841 14,407 (*) (*) (*) (*) 8,972 25,060 (*) 38,974
5,752 43,611 13,169 13,523 30,442 27,137 3,305 8,620 24,197 16,346 35,593
7,166 43,395 12,701 13,038 30,694 27,618 3,076 8,418 26,591 17,843 36,724
6,649 47,929 15,938 16,384 31,991 28,442 3,549 9,224 26,017 16,855 38,519
6,024 44,205 14,490 14,891 29,715 26,426 3,289 9,025 25,942 16,401 35,632
7,287 50,146 16,057 (*) (*) (*) (*) 9,519 25,019 (*) 38,550
7,355 50,229 16,106 (NA) 34,123 30,253 3,870 9,736 25,449 18,264 39,113
7,350 49,643 15,965 (NA) 33,678 29,954 3,724 9,214 25,571 18,301 38,698
7,396 49,509 16,990 (NA) 32,519 28,875 3,644 9,867 26,324 17,912 37,727
7,311 49,204 17,103 (NA) 32,101 28,385 3,716 9,715 25,686 17,504 37,507
452 4521 4521 4529 45291 45299 453 454 4541 722
(*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available. (S) Suppressed. (a) Advance estimate. (p) Preliminary estimate. (r) Revised estimate.
(1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html
Table 2. Estimated Change in Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, by Kind of Business
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Percent Change1
Mar. 2009 Advance from -Feb. 2009 (p) Mar. 2008 (r) Feb. 2009 Preliminary from -Jan. 2009 (r) Feb. 2008 (r) Jan. 2009 through Mar. 2009 from -Oct. 2008 Jan. 2008 through through Dec. 2008 Mar. 2008
NAICS code
Kind of Business
Retail & food services, total ………………………………..
Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts) …. Retail ………………………..……….
441 4411, 4412 442 443 444
-1.1
-0.9 -1.1 -2.3 -2.5 -1.7 -5.9 -0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 -1.6 -1.8 -0.9 -0.2 -0.3 -2.2 -1.7 -1.4
-9.4
-6.0 -10.7 -23.5 -25.9 -13.1 -9.5 -9.2 1.6 1.1 4.4 -34.0 -5.1 -1.5 1.3 -5.5 -3.5 -5.0 2.2
0.3
1.0 0.2 -3.0 -3.4 0.5 0.7 -0.5 -0.1 -0.3 0.6 3.1 2.8 0.1 1.2 0.9 5.7 -0.5 1.1
-7.9
-4.5 -9.2 -22.0 -24.4 -11.4 -1.4 -10.5 1.8 1.2 3.8 -31.8 -2.1 0.6 2.1 -5.8 0.2 -0.9 4.3
-1.2
-1.1 -1.5 -1.8 -2.0 -2.8 0.7 -4.5 0.6 0.5 1.0 -12.6 3.2 2.5 1.2 -1.4 -1.0 -0.4 1.1
-8.8
-5.5 -10.0 -22.3 -24.7 -12.8 -5.1 -9.9 1.9 1.4 4.0 -33.4 -4.5 -0.7 1.5 -6.0 -3.9 -2.6 3.1
Motor vehicle & parts dealers ……… Auto & other motor veh. dealers … Furniture & home furn. stores ……… Electronics & appliance stores ……. Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers……………………… Food & beverage stores……………… Grocery stores ……………………. Health & personal care stores ……… Gasoline stations ……………………. Clothing & clothing accessories stores ……………………….………… Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores…………………………. General merchandise stores………… Department stores (ex. L.D.)……… Miscellaneous store retailers ……… Nonstore retailers ……………………. Food services & drinking places …..
(r) Revised estimates
445 4451 446 447 448
451
452 4521 453 454 722
(p) Preliminary estimates
(1) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Survey Description
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.
U.S. Department of Commerce U.S. Census Bureau Washington, D.C. 20233
FIRST-CLASS MAIL POSTAGE & FEES PAID Bureau of the Census PERMIT NO. G-58
Official Business
Penalty for Private Use, $300
Reliability of Estimates
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is a 90 percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is –0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
Table 3. Estim ated M easures of Sam pling Variability and Revision to Advance Estim ates
(Estim ates are show n as percents and are based on data from the Advance M onthly Retail T rade Survey and M onthly R etail Trade Survey)
M edian M edian standard error (1) for Percent change Previous M o. to Current M o. Previous Qtr. to Current Q tr. Current M o. to sam e M o. Last Yr. Revision for m onthto-m onth change Average revision
(2)
NAICS Code
Kind of B usiness
CV
(1)
for
Current M o. (% )
M edian absolute revision
441
4411, 4412
442 443 444 445 4451 446 447 448 451 452
4521
453 454 722
Retail & food services, total … … … … … … ..… … … … … … … . T otal (excl. m otor vehicle & parts) .. Retail … ..… … … … … … … … … … .. M otor vehicle & parts dealers … … .. Auto & other m otor veh. dealers . Furniture & hom e furn. stores… … . Electronics & appliance stores … .. Building m aterial & garden eq. &… . supplies dealers… … … … … … … … Food & beverage stores… … … … … . G rocery stores … … … … … … … .. Health & personal care stores … … G asoline stations … … … … … … … .. Clothing & clothing accessories stores … … … … … … … … … … … … .. Sporting goods, hobby, book & m usic stores… … … … … … … … … .. G eneral m erchandise stores… … … . D epartm ent stores (ex. L.D .)… … M iscellaneous store retailers … … .. Nonstore retailers … … … … … … … .. Food services & drinking places ..
0.7 0.6 0.7 2.1 2.3 2.9 1.5 2.4 0.9 0.9 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.4 0.2 0.0 3.8 1.6 1.9
0.3 0.3 0.4 1.4 1.6 2.1 0.7 1.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.4 0.0 0.0 3.1 1.0 0.9
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.6 0.7
0.4 0.4 0.4 1.4 1.4 2.2 1.1 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.6 0.1 0.0 3.5 1.3 1.4
0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4
0.2 0.2 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.6
(1)
Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation or holiday or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months. These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median revisions are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months. Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html
(2)