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September 2002

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September 2002 Powered By Docstoc
					U.S. Census Bureau Steven Berman Marcia D. Robinson

(301) 763-5160

For Release 10:00 A.M. EDT, Friday, October 25, 2002 CB02-140

NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES IN SEPTEMBER 2002
Sales of new one-family houses in September 2002 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,021,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.4 percent (±11.0%) above the revised August rate of 1,017,000 and is 19.3 percent (±13.9%) above the September 2001 estimate of 856,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2002 was $176,300; the average sales price was $218,100. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 332,000. This represents a supply of 4.0 months at the current sales rate.

EXPLANATORY NOTES

These statistics are estimated from sample surveys. They are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated average relative standard errors of the preliminary data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as “2.5 percent (±3.2%) above” appears in the text, this indicates the range (-0.7 to +5.7 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percent changes are 90-percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range contains zero, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease; that is, the change is not statistically significant. The same applies to the confidence intervals for percent changes shown in the tables. Changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show irregular movement. It takes 5 months to establish a trend for new houses sold. Preliminary new home sales figures are subject to revision due to the survey methodology and definitions used. The survey is primarily based on a sample of houses selected from building permits. Since a “sale” is defined as a deposit taken or sales agreement signed, this can occur prior to a permit being issued. An estimate of these prior sales is included in the sales figure. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimate of total sales is revised about 3 percent. Changes in sales price data reflect changes in the distribution of houses by region, size, etc., as well as changes in the prices of houses with identical characteristics. Explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability can be found on our web site listed below.

New Residential Sales data for October 2002 will be released on Tuesday, November 26, 2002, at 10:00 A.M. EST.

Our Internet site is: http://www.census.gov/newhomesales

Table 1. New Houses Sold and For Sale
[Thousands of houses. Detail may not add to total because of rounding] Sold during period1 Period United States
856

For sale at end of period West
211

Northeast
52

Midwest
163

South
430

United States
310

Northeast

Midwest

Months' South West supply2
4.4

Median sales price ($)

Average sales price ($)

Seasonally adjusted
2001: September

October November December

865 938 979

65 67 68

151 176 165

436 483 468

213 212 278

308 308 308

4.4 4.0 3.7

2002: January February March

870 937 915

70 67 65

180 172 149

390 439 426

230 259 275

310 314 316

4.4 4.0 4.2

April May June
r

932 974 947

58 71 68

169 178 158

436 439 434

269 286 287

324 329 329

4.2 4.1 4.2

July

r r

952 1,017

64 52

187 194

451 499

250 272

331 330

4.2 3.9

August

Septemberp
Average RSE (%)3

1,021
6

101
19

186
13

456
8

278
10

332
4

4.0
5

Percent Change: September 2002 from August 2002 90% Confidence Interval
4

0.4% ± 11.0 19.3% ± 13.9

94.2% ± 96.1 94.2% ± 98.8

-4.1% ± 22.1 14.1% ± 29.6

-8.6% ± 15.1 6.0% ± 18.0

2.2% ± 17.9 31.8% ± 25.7

0.6% ± 1.5 7.1% ± 4.8 Not seasonally adjusted

2.6% ± 14.8 -9.1% ± 11.3

September 2002 from September 2001 90% Confidence Interval
4

2000: 2001: RSE (%) 2001: Year to Date 2002: Year to Date RSE (%)

877 908 2

71 66 7

155 164 6

406 439 4

244 239 3

301 310 3

28 28 12

65 70 8

146 142 5

62 69 7

(X) (X) (X)

169,000 175,200 2

207,000 213,200 2

709 747 2

51 53 9

130 138 6

338 345 3

191 212 3

(X) (X) (X) (X) (X)

(X) (X) (X) (X) (X)

(X) (X) (X) (X) (X)

(X) (X) (X) (X) (X)

(X) (X) (X) (X) (X)

(X) (X) (X) (X) (X)

(X) (X) (X) (X) (X)

(X) (X) (X) (X) (X)

Year to Date Percent Change 90% Confidence Interval
2001: September
4

5.3% ± 3.6
66

4.2% ± 10.0
4

6.3% ± 7.0
12

1.9% ± 5.7
33

11.1% ± 6.4
16

310

26

68

146

70

4.7

166,400

203,300

October November December

66 67 66

5 5 5

12 13 10

33 35 33

16 14 18

314 313 310

27 27 28

69 70 70

146 144 142

71 72 69

4.8 4.7 4.7

171,300 168,100 180,200

207,100 206,900 228,700

2002: January February March

66 84 90

5 6 6

12 15 16

32 40 41

18 23 27

313 309 307

27 26 26

71 70 72

145 146 147

70 67 63

4.7 3.7 3.4

187,100 191,100 183,400

226,900 226,500 227,100

April May June
r

86 88 84

6 6 6

17 17 15

39 39 37

25 25 26

320 327 328

28 30 30

75 75 77

153 156 157

65 66 64

3.7 3.7 3.9

187,100 181,000 190,600

228,100 226,500 225,200

July

r r

82 88

5 5

16 17

39 42

21 24

334 332

31 33

78 79

158 155

66 65

4.1 3.8

174,800 174,700

217,300 219,200

August

Septemberp
Average RSE (%)
3

79
6

8
19

14
13

35
8

21
10

334
4

32
11

80
10

157
6

64
7

4.2
5

176,300
4

218,100
4

p

Preliminary. Annual rates.

r

Revised.
2

RSE Relative standard error.

X Not applicable.
3

Z Less than 0.5 percent.

1 4

Ratio of houses for sale to houses sold.

Average RSE for the latest 6-month period.

See the Explanatory Notes in the accompanying text for an explanation of 90% confidence intervals.

Note: The sales price includes the land.

Table 2. New Houses Sold, by Sales Price
[Thousands of houses. Components may not add to total because of rounding. Percents computed from unrounded figures] Under Total $100,000 $100,000 to $124,999 $125,000 to $149,999 $150,000 to $199,999
1

Period

$200,000 to $249,999

$250,000 to $299,999

$300,000 and over

Number of houses
2000: 2001: RSE (%) 877 908 2 88 75 14 112 105 6 150 143 5

200 221 5

121 135 5

73 86 7

132 142 6

2001:

September

66

7

6

12

16

10

5

10

October November December

66 67 66 66 84 90

6 6 5 5 6 6

8 10 9 6 10 10

11 11 11 9 10 12

15 16 13 17 18 23

10 8 9 10 13 13

6 7 7 7 11 9

10 10 13 14 15 17

2002:

January February March

April May June July
r

86 88 84 82
r

5 6 5 7 7

8 9 8 8 9

14 12 13 13 13

21 24 19 22 23

12 10 14 9 14

8 9 10 8 7

17 18 16 14 14

r

August

88

Septemberp
Average RSE (%)
2

79
6

8
27

10
18

12
13

17
12

10
13

7
17

15
13

Percent distribution
2000: 2001: 100 100 12 10 14 13 18 17 24 23 13 14 7 8 13 15

2001:

September

100

11

10

18

25

15

8

14

October November December

100 100 100

9 9 7

13 14 13

17 17 16

23 23 20

15 11 14

9 10 10

15 15 19

2002:

January February March

100 100 100

7 7 7

8 13 11

13 12 13

26 22 26

15 16 14

10 13 10

20 18 19

April May June
r

100 100 100

6 7 6

9 10 10

16 14 15

24 27 22

14 12 16

10 11 12

20 20 19

July

r r

100 100

9 8

10 10

16 15

27 27

11 16

10 8

17 16

August

Septemberp
p r

100

10

13

15

22

13

9

19

Preliminary.

Revised.

RSE Relative standard error.

X Not applicable.

Z Less than 0.5 percent.

1 2

Houses for which sales price was not reported have been distributed proportionally to those for which sales price was reported. Average RSE for the latest 6-month period.

Note: The sales price includes the land.

Table 3. New Houses Sold and For Sale by Stage of Construction and Median Number of Months on Sales Market
[Thousands of houses. Detail may not add to total because of rounding] Sold during period Period Total
2000: 2001: RSE (%) 2001: September 877 908 2

For sale at end of period Not started
39 39 5

Median months Completed
91 79 6
1

Not started
319 331 3

Under construction
331 341 4

Completed
227 236 6

Total
301 310 3

Under construction
171 191 4

for sale

4.2 4.1 8

66

23

25

18

310

40

191

78

4.0

October November December

66 67 66

20 22 23

26 25 24

19 21 19

314 313 310

40 40 39

195 195 191

79 79 79

3.7 4.0 4.1

2002:

January February March

66 84 90

25 31 34

24 32 34

17 20 22

313 309 307

43 41 40

190 187 189

80 81 78

4.3 4.5 4.8

April May June
r

86 88 84

35 32 29

32 34 36

19 23 20

320 327 328

47 46 42

191 198 202

82 83 83

4.3 4.0 4.1

July

r r

82 88

27 31

32 33

23 23

334 332

46 51

208 201

80 80

4.0 4.2

August

Septemberp
Average RSE (%)
2

79
6

28
6

29
7

22
9

334
4

51
6

200
5

83
7

4.1
10

p

Preliminary.

r

Revised.

RSE Relative standard error.

Z Less than 0.5 percent.

1 2

Median number of months for sale since completion. Average RSE for the latest 6-month period.