FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23, 2008 AT 10:00 A.M. EST
CB08-188 Erica Filipek or Raemeka Mayo Manufacturing and Construction Division (301) 763-5160
NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES IN NOVEMBER 2008
Sales of new one-family houses in November 2008 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 407,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 2.9 percent (±13.9%)* below the revised October of 419,000 and is 35.3 percent (±11.4%) below the November 2007 estimate of 629,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2008 was $220,400; the average sales price was $287,500. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of November was 374,000. This represents a supply of 11.5 months at the current sales rate.
New Residential Sales data for December 2008 will be released on Thursday, January 29, 2009, at 10:00 A.M. EST. http://www.census.gov/newhomesales Our Internet site is: http://www.census.gov/newhomesales
EXPLANATORY NOTES
These statistics are estimated from sample surveys. They are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated average relative standard errors of the preliminary data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as “2.5 percent (±3.2%) above” appears in the text, this indicates the range (-0.7 to +5.7 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percent changes are 90-percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range does not contain zero, the change is statistically significant. If it does contain zero, the change is not statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. The same policies apply to the confidence intervals for percent changes shown in the tables. Changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show irregular movement. It takes 5 months to establish a trend for new houses sold. Preliminary new home sales figures are subject to revision due to the survey methodology and definitions used. The survey is primarily based on a sample of houses selected from building permits. Since a “sale” is defined as a deposit taken or sales agreement signed, this can occur prior to a permit being issued. An estimate of these prior sales is included in the sales figure. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimate of total sales is revised about 4 percent. Changes in sales price data reflect changes in the distribution of houses by region, size, etc., as well as changes in the prices of houses with identical characteristics. Explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability can be found on our web site listed above.
* 90% confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.
Table 1. New Houses Sold and For Sale
[Thousands of houses. Detail may not add to total because of rounding] Sold during period1 Period United States Northeast Midwest South West United States For sale at end of period Northeast Midwest Months' South West supply
2
Median sales price ($)
Average sales price ($)
Seasonally adjusted
2007: November December 2008: January February March April May June July August
r r
629 600 597 572 513 542 515 499 505 448 442 419
55 56 55 39 28 40 31 35 41 29 26 35
86 74 77 77 70 82 76 70 66 74 64 67
339 335 318 314 293 294 292 279 274 252 247 226
149 135 147 142 122 126 116 115 124 93 105 91
502 494 484 477 469 463 459 445 433 428 415 402
9.5 9.8 9.8 9.7 11.2 10.3 10.9 10.9 10.6 11.7 11.2 11.8
September October
r
Novemberp
Average RSE (%)3
407
7
40
26
56
16
210
10
101
14
374
4
11.5
7
Percent Change: November 2008 from October 2008 90% Confidence Interval
4
-2.9% ± 13.9 -35.3% ± 11.4
14.3% ± 57.2 -27.3% ± 42.2
-16.4% ± 18.5 -34.9% ± 25.1
-7.1% ± 17.1 -38.1% ± 11.9
11.0% ± 33.2 -32.2% ± 25.5
-7.0% ± 0.9 -25.5% ± 2.3 Not seasonally adjusted
-2.5% ± 17.6 21.1% ± 21.2
November 2008 from November 2007 90% Confidence Interval
4
2006: 2007: RSE (%) 2007: Year to Date 2008: Year to Date RSE (%)
1,051 776 3 732 461 3
63 65 10 61 33 9
161 118 9 113 66 11
559 411 4 385 252 4
267 181 5 172 109 5
537 496 3 (X) (X) (X) (X) (X)
54 48 12 (X) (X) (X) (X) (X)
97 79 8 (X) (X) (X) (X) (X)
267 248 5 (X) (X) (X) (X) (X)
119 121 7 (X) (X) (X) (X) (X)
(X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X)
246,500 247,900 3 (X) (X) (X) (X) (X)
305,900 313,600 3 (X) (X) (X) (X) (X)
Year to Date Percent Change 5 90% Confidence Interval
2007: November December 2008: January February March April May June July August
r r 4
-37.0% ± 2.6
45 44 44 48 49 49 49 45 43 38 35 33
-46.3% ± 8.3
4 4 3 3 2 4 3 3 3 2 2 3
-41.6% ± 5.5
6 5 5 6 7 8 7 7 6 7 5 5
-34.5% ± 3.6
25 26 24 26 28 25 27 25 24 21 20 17
-36.5% ± 5.4
10 8 11 12 12 12 11 10 11 8 8 7
508 496 488 475 465 463 458 445 434 427 417 406
48 48 46 45 46 45 45 44 44 44 44 42
79 79 78 76 74 73 73 71 71 69 68 67
257 248 246 241 233 234 231 222 215 211 205 200
124 121 117 113 113 111 109 107 103 102 100 97
11.2 11.4 11.1 9.9 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.8 10.1 11.3 11.9 12.5
249,100 227,700 232,400 245,300 229,300 246,400 229,300 234,300 237,300 221,000 225,400 214,600
316,800 284,400 284,600 301,200 287,600 314,300 298,200 299,400 301,900 265,500 286,400 279,500
September October
r
Novemberp
Average RSE (%)
3
28
7
3
26
4
16
15
10
7
14
372
4
38
15
62
11
185
4
86
8
13.2
7
220,400
5
287,500
5
p
Preliminary.
r
Revised.
RSE Relative standard error.
X Not applicable.
2
Z Less than 0.5 percent.
3
1 4
Seasonally adjusted houses sold are published at annual rates.
Ratio of houses for sale to houses sold.
5
Average RSE for the latest 6-month period.
See the Explanatory Notes in the accompanying text for an explanation of 90% confidence intervals.
Computed using unrounded data.
Note: The sales price includes the land.
Table 2. New Houses Sold, by Sales Price
[Thousands of houses. Components may not add to total because of rounding. Percents computed from unrounded figures] Under Total $150,000 $150,000 to $199,999 $200,000 to $299,999 $300,000 to $399,999 $400,000 to $499,999 $500,000 to $749,999 $750,000 and over
Period
Number of houses1
2006: 2007: RSE (%) 1,051 776 3 162 106 10 208 162 5 300 227 5 174 121 7 84 65 9 80 62 8 43 32 13
2007:
November December
45 44
7 6
9 9
13 14
7 6
4 4
4 2
2 1
2008:
January February March
44 48 49
8 7 7
9 9 11
15 16 17
5 8 7
4 3 2
2 3 3
1 2 2
April May June
49 49 45
5 9 8
10 11 9
15 15 14
9 5 7
3 4 2
5 3 2
2 2 2
July August
r r
43 38 35
8 7 7
9 9 8
12 12 10
6 5 4
4 3 2
3 1 3
2 1 1
September
r
October
33
6
7
10
4
2
2
1
November p
Average RSE (%)2
28
5
6
8
4
2
2
1
7
18
15
13
17
23
27
34
Percent distribution
2006: 2007: 100 100 15 14 20 21 29 29 17 16 8 8 8 8 4 4
2007:
November December
100 100
14 15
21 21
28 33
16 14
9 9
8 6
4 2
2008:
January February March
100 100 100
18 14 14
20 19 23
33 33 34
11 16 15
9 7 5
5 7 6
3 4 3
April May June
100 100 100
11 18 17
21 22 20
31 31 32
18 11 16
6 7 5
9 6 5
4 5 5
July August
r r
100 100 100
18 17 19
20 23 23
27 31 29
14 14 11
10 9 6
7 4 8
5 2 3
September
r
October
100
18
23
31
13
6
5
4
November p
p r
100
19
21
28
14
6
8
4
Preliminary.
Revised.
RSE Relative standard error.
X Not applicable.
Z Less than 0.5 percent.
1 2
Houses for which sales price was not reported have been distributed proportionally to those for which sales price was reported. Average RSE for the latest 6-month period.
Note: The sales price includes the land.
Table 3. New Houses Sold and For Sale by Stage of Construction and Median Number of Months on Sales Market
[Thousands of houses. Detail may not add to total because of rounding] Sold during period Period Total
2006: 2007: RSE (%) 2007: November December 1,051 776 3 45 44
For sale at end of period Not started
78 69 5 73 69
Median months Completed
174 198 6 194 198
Not started
346 196 6 9 10
Under construction
368 255 5 12 11
Completed
337 325 5 25 22
Total
537 496 3 508 496
Under construction
285 228 4 241 228
for sale1
4.3 6.2 8 6.0 6.2
2008:
January February March
44 48 49
10 11 12
12 11 12
22 25 25
488 475 465
69 68 66
220 214 212
199 194 187
6.7 7.1 7.4
April May June
49 49 45
13 11 10
14 16 13
22 22 22
463 458 445
65 64 60
215 210 202
183 184 183
7.7 8.2 8.3
July August
r r
43 38 35
9 8 6
13 11 10
21 19 19
434 427 417
57 55 51
193 187 175
184 185 191
8.5 8.9 9.0
September
r
October
33
7
9
17
406
49
164
193
9.1
Novemberp
Average RSE (%)
2
28
7
8
8
7
10
14
9
372
4
48
8
152
5
172
5
9.3
5
p
Preliminary.
r
Revised.
RSE Relative standard error.
Z Less than 0.5 percent.
1 2
Median number of months for sale since completion. Average RSE for the latest 6-month period.