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December 2006

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December 2006 Powered By Docstoc
					FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE FRIDAY, JANUARY 26, 2007 AT 10:00 A.M. EST Erica Filipek or Steven Berman Manufacturing and Construction Division (301) 763-5160

CB07-15

NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES IN DECEMBER 2006
Sales of new one-family houses in December 2006 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,120,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.8 percent (±12.2%)* above the revised November rate of 1,069,000, but is 11.0 percent (±11.7%)* below the December 2005 estimate of 1,259,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in December 2006 was $235,000; the average sales price was $290,100. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of December was 537,000. This represents a supply of 5.9 months at the current sales rate. An estimated 1,061,000 new homes were sold in 2006. This is 17.3 percent (±3.4%) below the 2005 figure of 1,283,000.

New Residential Sales data for January 2007 will be released on Wednesday, February 28, 2007, at 10:00 A.M. EST.

Our Internet site is: http://www.census.gov/newhomesales

EXPLANATORY NOTES
These statistics are estimated from sample surveys. They are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated average relative standard errors of the preliminary data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as “2.5 percent (±3.2%) above” appears in the text, this indicates the range (-0.7 to +5.7 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percent changes are 90-percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range does not contain zero, the change is statistically significant. If it does contain zero, the change is not statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. The same policies apply to the confidence intervals for percent changes shown in the tables. Changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show irregular movement. It takes 6 months to establish a trend for new houses sold. Preliminary new home sales figures are subject to revision due to the survey methodology and definitions used. The survey is primarily based on a sample of houses selected from building permits. Since a “sale” is defined as a deposit taken or sales agreement signed, this can occur prior to a permit being issued. An estimate of these prior sales is included in the sales figure. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimate of total sales is revised about 3 percent. Changes in sales price data reflect changes in the distribution of houses by region, size, etc., as well as changes in the prices of houses with identical characteristics. Explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability can be found on our web site listed above.

* 90% confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.

Table 1. New Houses Sold and For Sale
[Thousands of houses. Detail may not add to total because of rounding] Sold during period1 Period United States Northeast Midwest South West United States For sale at end of period Northeast Midwest Months' South West supply
2

Median sales price ($)

Average sales price ($)

Seasonally adjusted
2005: December 2006: January February March 1,259 1,173 1,038 1,121 71 62 65 61 205 180 183 166 655 596 543 587 328 335 247 307 509 522 538 553 4.8 5.3 6.4 6.1

April May June July August September October
r r r

1,121 1,101 1,078 979 1,021 1,022

58 69 62 59 85 62

165 179 170 138 154 140

604 588 570 516 568 565

294 265 276 266 214 255

565 564 566 573 568 560

6.2 6.2 6.5 7.2 6.8 6.7

995 1,069

40 66

142 158

567 595

246 250

553 542

7.0 6.1

November

Decemberp
Average RSE (%)
3

1,120
8

84
23

200
14

597
12

239
13

537
4

5.9
7

Percent Change: December 2006 from November 2006 90% Confidence Interval
4

4.8% ± 12.2 -11.0% ± 11.7

27.3% ± 70.0 18.3% ± 72.3

26.6% ± 26.8 -2.4% ± 18.6

0.3% ± 15.1 -8.9% ± 16.2

-4.4% ± 24.9 -27.1% ± 19.8

-0.9% ± 1.1 5.5% ± 4.3 Not seasonally adjusted

-3.3% ± 12.2 22.9% ± 18.1

December 2006 from December 2005 90% Confidence Interval
4

2005: 2006:p RSE (%)

1,283 1,061 3

81 64 8

205 163 9

638 567 4

358 267 4

515 539 3 (X) (X)

47 52 12 (X) (X)

109 96 8 (X) (X)

249 274 5 (X) (X)

109 117 7 (X) (X)

(X) (X) (X) (X) (X)

240,900 245,300 3 (X) (X)

297,000 304,700 2 (X) (X)

Year to Year Percent Change 5 90% Confidence Interval
2005: December 2006: January February March April May June July August September October
r r r 4

-17.3% ± 3.4
87 89 88 108 100 102 98

-21.0% ± 11.8
5 4 6 6 5 6 6

-20.5% ± 7.2
13 11 15 16 16 17 16

-11.1% ± 5.8
49 47 46 55 52 54 51

-25.4% ± 3.8
20 26 22 31 27 25 25

515 525 533 550 558 563 570

47 49 50 53 53 54 54

109 110 108 106 108 107 105

249 257 263 277 282 281 288

109 109 112 114 115 121 124

5.9 5.9 6.1 5.1 5.6 5.5 5.8

238,600 244,900 250,800 238,800 257,000 238,200 243,200

290,200 301,000 307,900 298,800 310,300 293,900 305,000

83 88 80 76 75

5 7 5 3 5

12 13 11 11 11

43 49 44 42 42

22 19 20 19 17

568 570 561 558 549

54 53 51 54 54

104 103 103 103 101

289 291 286 282 278

121 123 121 119 116

6.9 6.5 7.0 7.4 7.4

238,100 243,900 226,700 244,700 232,200

311,300 317,300 296,200 305,200 290,800

November

Decemberp
Average RSE (%)
3

76
8

6
23

13
14

42
12

15
13

539
4

52
12

96
8

274
4

117
6

7.1
7

235,000
5

290,100
4

p

Preliminary. Annual rates.

r

Revised.
2

RSE Relative standard error.

X Not applicable.
3

Z Less than 0.5 percent.

1 4

Ratio of houses for sale to houses sold.

Average RSE for the latest 6-month period.
5

See the Explanatory Notes in the accompanying text for an explanation of 90% confidence intervals.

Computed using unrounded data.

Note: The sales price includes the land.

Table 2. New Houses Sold, by Sales Price
[Thousands of houses. Components may not add to total because of rounding. Percents computed from unrounded figures] Under Total $150,000 $150,000 to $199,999 $200,000 to $299,999 $300,000 to $399,999
1

Period

$400,000 to $499,999

$500,000 to $749,999

$750,000 and over

Number of houses
2005: 2006:p RSE (%) 1,283 1,061 3 226 169 11 246 213 6 352 304 5

203 169 6

111 83 8

99 80 8

45 44 14

2005:

December

87

16

15

28

14

6

6

2

2006:

January February March

89 88 108

15 15 16

18 16 24

25 26 30

15 14 18

6 8 8

6 6 9

4 4 4

April May June

100 102 98

16 18 14

17 22 21

28 27 28

18 16 16

8 7 7

9 7 8

4 4 3

July August September
r r r

83 88 80

12 15 13

18 18 20

25 22 21

11 14 10

6 8 6

6 7 6

4 4 3

October

76 75

13 13

14 16

22 21

11 12

7 6

6 5

3 3

November

Decemberp
Average RSE (%)2

76

16

13

22

11

4

6

3

8

21

14

12

17

20

20

29

Percent distribution
2005: 2006:p 100 100 18 16 19 20 27 29 16 16 9 8 8 8 4 4

2005:

December

100

18

17

32

16

7

7

3

2006:

January February March

100 100 100

16 17 14

21 18 22

28 29 27

17 16 17

7 9 8

7 7 8

5 4 4

April May June

100 100 100

16 18 15

17 22 22

28 27 29

18 16 16

8 7 7

9 7 8

4 4 3

July August September
r r r

100 100 100

15 17 17

22 20 25

30 25 26

14 16 13

7 9 8

7 8 7

5 5 4

October

100 100

17 17

19 21

29 28

14 16

9 8

8 6

5 3

November

Decemberp
p r

100

21

18

28

15

6

8

4

Preliminary.

Revised.

RSE Relative standard error.

X Not applicable.

Z Less than 0.5 percent.

1 2

Houses for which sales price was not reported have been distributed proportionally to those for which sales price was reported. Average RSE for the latest 6-month period.

Note: The sales price includes the land.

Table 3. New Houses Sold and For Sale by Stage of Construction and Median Number of Months on Sales Market
[Thousands of houses. Detail may not add to total because of rounding] Sold during period Period Total
2005: 2006:
p

For sale at end of period Not started
93 85 5 93

Median months Completed
115 172 6 115

Not started
503 363 4 32

Under construction
465 365 4 29

Completed
315 333 6 26

Total
515 539 3 515

Under construction
307 282 4 307

for sale1
4.0 4.5 8 4.0

1,283 1,061 3 December 87

RSE (%) 2005:

2006:

January February March

89 88 108

35 33 41

32 32 37

21 22 31

525 533 550

90 87 98

316 321 323

119 125 130

4.3 4.2 3.9

April May June

100 102 98

35 32 30

37 36 38

28 34 30

558 563 570

101 99 106

327 336 329

131 128 135

3.9 3.7 3.6

July August September
r r r

83 88 80

26 29 25

30 31 25

27 28 29

568 570 561

95 96 84

331 324 318

142 150 159

3.6 3.5 3.4

October

76 75

23 26

25 22

27 27

558 549

85 82

305 298

168 170

3.7 4.2

November

Decemberp
Average RSE (%)
2

76
8

28
8

20
9

28
10

539
4

85
8

282
4

172
6

4.5
5

p

Preliminary.

r

Revised.

RSE Relative standard error.

Z Less than 0.5 percent.

1 2

Median number of months for sale since completion. Average RSE for the latest 6-month period.