January 2009

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January 2009 Powered By Docstoc
					FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 26, 2009 AT 10:00 A.M. EST
CB09-28 Erica Filipek or Raemeka Mayo Manufacturing and Construction Division (301) 763-5160

NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES IN JANUARY 2009
Sales of new one-family houses in January 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 309,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.2 percent (±15.4%)* below the revised December rate of 344,000 and is 48.2 percent (±6.8%) below the January 2008 estimate of 597,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2009 was $201,100; the average sales price was $234,600. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 342,000. This represents a supply of 13.3 months at the current sales rate.

Statistics on the inventory of new homes for sale have been revised back to April 2008 with this month's release. An error in the tabulation of data for houses removed from the sales market caused the numbers of houses for sale in April through November 2008 to be overestimated. Estimates of the months' supply of houses for sale and the median number of months for sale have also been revised to reflect these corrections.

New Residential Sales data for February 2009 will be released on Wednesday, March 25, 2009, at 10:00 A.M. EDT. http://www.census.gov/newhomesales Our Internet site is: http://www.census.gov/newhomesales

EXPLANATORY NOTES
These statistics are estimated from sample surveys. They are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated average relative standard errors of the preliminary data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as “2.5 percent (±3.2%) above” appears in the text, this indicates the range (-0.7 to +5.7 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percent changes are 90-percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range does not contain zero, the change is statistically significant. If it does contain zero, the change is not statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. The same policies apply to the confidence intervals for percent changes shown in the tables. Changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show irregular movement. It takes 5 months to establish a trend for new houses sold. Preliminary new home sales figures are subject to revision due to the survey methodology and definitions used. The survey is primarily based on a sample of houses selected from building permits. Since a “sale” is defined as a deposit taken or sales agreement signed, this can occur prior to a permit being issued. An estimate of these prior sales is included in the sales figure. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimate of total sales is revised about 4 percent. Changes in sales price data reflect changes in the distribution of houses by region, size, etc., as well as changes in the prices of houses with identical characteristics. Explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability can be found on our web site listed above.

* 90% confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.

Table 1. New Houses Sold and For Sale
[Thousands of houses. Detail may not add to total because of rounding] Sold during period1 Period United States Northeast Midwest South West United States For sale at end of period Northeast Midwest Months' South West supply
2

Median sales price ($)

Average sales price ($)

Seasonally adjusted

2008: January February March Aprilr Mayr June Julyr August
r r
r

597 572 513

55 39 28

77 77 70

318 314 293

147 142 122

484 477 469

9.8 9.7 11.2

542 515 499 505 448 434

40 31 35 41 29 25

82 76 70 66 74 65

294 292 279 274 252 242

126 116 115 124 93 102

458 452 435 419 412 395

10.2 10.7 10.7 10.3 11.3 10.9

September October
r

404
r

35 39 24

63 54 54

221 203 184

85 84 82

379 369 353

11.6 12.0 12.2

November December

380 344

r

2009: Januaryp Average RSE (%)
3

309
8

27
30

51
18

172
11

59
16

342
4

13.3
7

Percent Change: January 2009 from December 2008 90% Confidence Interval
4

-10.2% ± 15.4 -48.2% ± 6.8

12.5% ± 93.0 -50.9% ± 29.9

-5.6% ± 34.6 -33.8% ± 25.9

-6.5% ± 22.5 -45.9% ± 10.8

-28.0% ± 36.4 -59.9% ± 16.8

-3.1% ± 0.7 -29.3% ± 2.3 Not seasonally adjusted

9.0% ± 17.8 35.7% ± 19.1

January 2009 from January 2008 90% Confidence Interval
4

2007: 2008:r RSE (%) 2008: January February March
r

776 483 3 44 48 49 49 49 45 43
r r

65 35 9 3 3 2 4 3 3 3 2 2

118 69 11 5 6 7 8 7 7 6 7 5

411 266 4 24 26 28 25 27 25 24 21 20

181 113 4 11 12 12 12 11 10 11 8 8

496 354 3 488 475 465 458 451 435 421 411 398

48 37 12 46 45 46 44 44 43 42 42 41

79 57 8 78 76 74 73 72 69 69 67 65

248 176 5 246 241 233 230 227 218 210 205 198

121 83 7 117 113 113 110 107 104 100 98 94

(X) (X) (X) 11.1 9.9 9.5 9.3 9.3 9.6 9.8 10.8 11.4

247,900 231,400 3 232,400 245,300 229,300 246,400 229,300 234,300 237,300 221,000 225,200

313,600 292,400 3 284,600 301,200 287,600 314,300 298,200 299,400 301,900 265,500 287,100

April Mayr Juner
r

July

August

38 35

September
r

October

32
r

3 3 2

5 4 4

17 14 14

7 6 5

384 369 354

39 37 37

62 61 57

192 184 176

91 87 83

12.0 13.8 14.5

213,200 224,500 223,200

274,000 290,400 260,200

November December

27 24

r

2009: Januaryp Average RSE (%)
3

23
8

2
30

3
18

13
11

4
16

341
4

37
15

54
11

170
4

79
8

15.1
7

201,100
5

234,600
5

p

Preliminary.

r

Revised.

RSE Relative standard error.

X Not applicable.
2

Z Less than 0.5 percent.
3

1 4

Seasonally adjusted houses sold are published at annual rates.

Ratio of houses for sale to houses sold.
5

Average RSE for the latest 6-month period.

See the Explanatory Notes in the accompanying text for an explanation of 90% confidence intervals.

Computed using unrounded data.

Note: The sales price includes the land.

Table 2. New Houses Sold, by Sales Price
[Thousands of houses. Components may not add to total because of rounding. Percents computed from unrounded figures] Under Total $150,000 $150,000 to $199,999 $200,000 to $299,999 $300,000 to $399,999
1

Period

$400,000 to $499,999

$500,000 to $749,999

$750,000 and over

Number of houses
2007: 2008:r RSE (%) 776 483 3 106 78 11 162 106 7 227 148 4

121 69 7

65 35 8

62 30 9

32 18 15

2008:

January February March

44 48 49

8 7 7

9 9 11

15 16 17

5 8 7

4 3 2

2 3 3

1 2 2

April May June

49 49 45

5 9 8

10 11 9

15 15 14

9 5 7

3 4 2

5 3 2

2 2 2

July August September
r r

43 38 35

8 7 7

9 9 8

12 12 10

6 5 4

4 3 2

3 1 3

2 1 1

October

32 27 24
r

6 5 4

8 6 6

10 7 7

4 4 4

2 1 2

1 2 1

1 1 (Z)

November December 2009:

Januaryp

23
8

5
19

6
16

7
15

2
20

1
26

(Z)
31

(Z)
46

Average RSE (%)2

Percent distribution
2007: 2008:r 100 100 14 16 21 22 29 31 16 14 8 7 8 6 4 4

2008:

January February March

100 100 100

18 14 14

20 19 23

33 33 34

11 16 15

9 7 5

5 7 6

3 4 3

April May June

100 100 100

11 18 17

21 22 20

31 31 32

18 11 16

6 7 5

9 6 5

4 5 5

July August September
r r

100 100 100

18 17 19

20 23 24

27 31 29

14 14 10

10 9 6

7 4 8

5 2 4

October

100 100 100
r

18 20 16

24 21 26

32 28 31

12 14 15

7 5 7

4 8 3

4 4 1

November December 2009:

Januaryp
p r

100

22

27

33

10

5

2

1

Preliminary.

Revised.

RSE Relative standard error.

X Not applicable.

Z Less than 0.5 percent.

1 2

Houses for which sales price was not reported have been distributed proportionally to those for which sales price was reported. Average RSE for the latest 6-month period.

Note: The sales price includes the land.

Table 3. New Houses Sold and For Sale by Stage of Construction and Median Number of Months on Sales Market
[Thousands of houses. Detail may not add to total because of rounding] Sold during period Period Total
2007: 2008:
r

For sale at end of period Not started
69 43 5 69 68 66

Median months Completed
198 173 6 199 194 187

Not started
196 104 7 10 11 12

Under construction
255 133 5 12 11 12

Completed
325 246 6 22 25 25

Total
496 354 3 488 475 465

Under construction
228 138 4 220 214 212

for sale1
6.2 9.2 8 6.7 7.1 7.4

776 483 3 January February March Aprilr Mayr Juner
r

RSE (%) 2008:

44 48 49

49 49 45

13 11 10

14 16 13

22 22 22

458 451 435

64 63 59

213 209 201

181 180 175

7.7 8.3 8.4

July

43
r r

9 8 5

13 11 10

21 19 19

421 411 398

56 54 50

192 186 175

173 171 173

8.5 9.0 9.1

August

38 35

September
r

October

32
r

5 4 4

9 7 5

18 16 15

384 369 354

46 43 43

166 154 138

172 172 173

9.1 9.2 9.2

November December 2009:

27 24

r

January p
2

23
8

6
8

5
11

11
10

341
4

43
8

131
5

167
5

9.3
6

Average RSE (%)

p

Preliminary.

r

Revised.

RSE Relative standard error.

Z Less than 0.5 percent.

1 2

Median number of months for sale since completion. Average RSE for the latest 6-month period.