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					FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 26, 2009, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT Chris Savage or Jessica Young Manufacturing and Construction Division (301) 763-4832

M3-1 (09)-07 CB09-130

Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders July 2009
New Orders New orders for manufactured durable goods in July increased $7.8 billion or 4.9 percent to $168.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the third increase in the last four months and the largest percent increase since July 2007. This followed a 1.3 percent June decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.8 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 4.3 percent. Transportation equipment, up three of the last four months, had the largest increase, $6.8 billion or 18.4 percent to $43.7 billion. Shipments Shipments of manufactured durable goods in July, up two consecutive months, increased $3.5 billion or 2.0 percent to $173.1 billion. This followed a 0.7 percent June increase. Computers and electronic products, up three of the last four months, had the largest increase, $2.1 billion or 7.4 percent to $29.8 billion. Unfilled Orders Revised June Data Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in July, down ten consecutive months, decreased $0.4 billion or 0.1 percent to $740.2 billion. This was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.8 percent June decrease. Machinery, down ten consecutive months, had the largest decrease, $0.7 billion or 0.8 percent to $86.9 billion. Revised seasonally adjusted June figures for all manufacturing industries were: new orders, $350.7 billion (revised from $349.0 billion); shipments, $359.7 billion (revised from $358.3 billion); unfilled orders, $740.7 billion (revised from $740.2 billion); and total inventories, $507.2 billion (revised from $508.3 billion). Inventories Inventories of manufactured durable goods in July, down seven consecutive months, decreased $2.7 billion or 0.8 percent to $314.1 billion. This followed a 1.5 percent June decrease. Primary metals, down ten consecutive months, had the largest decrease, $0.7 billion or 2.8 percent to $25.5 billion. Capital Goods Nondefense new orders for capital goods in July increased $4.6 billion or 8.6 percent to $57.5 billion. Shipments increased $0.5 billion or 0.8 percent to $56.9 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.6 billion or 0.1 percent to $426.2 billion. Inventories decreased $1.0 billion or 0.7 percent to $138.5 billion. Defense new orders for capital goods in July increased $1.3 billion or 14.8 percent to $9.8 billion. Shipments decreased $0.4 billion or 3.6 percent to $10.4 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.7 billion or 0.5 percent to $141.5 billion. Inventories increased $0.1 billion or 0.7 percent to $20.2 billion.

Figures in text are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing. For data, call (301) 763-4673 or go to <http://www.census.gov/m3>. Revised and more detailed estimates, plus nondurable goods data, will be published on September 2, 2009, at 10:00 a.m. EDT. The advance report on durable goods for August is scheduled for release on September 25, 2009, at 8:30 a.m. EDT. See back page for survey description.

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[Millions of Dollars]

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders
Seasonally Adjusted Percent Change May 2009 Jun Jul 2 May Jun r Apr May Jul 2009 Not Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Jun 2009 Jul 2008
1

Monthly Item Jul 2009 DURABLE GOODS Total: Shipments………………………….. 4 New Orders ………………………… Excluding transportation: Shipments………………………….. 4 New Orders ………………………… Excluding defense: Shipments………………………….. 4 New Orders ………………………… Manufacturing with unfilled orders: Shipments………………………….. 4 New Orders ………………………… Primary metals: Shipments………………………….. New Orders………………………… Fabricated metal products: Shipments………………………….. New Orders………………………… Machinery: Shipments………………………….. New Orders………………………… Computers and electronic products: Shipments………………………….. 4 New Orders ………………………… Computers and related products: Shipments………………………….. New Orders………………………… Communications equipment: Shipments………………………….. New Orders………………………… Semiconductors: Shipments………………………….. 4 New Orders ………………………… Electrical equipment, appliances, and components: Shipments………………………….. New Orders………………………… Transportation equipment: Shipments………………………….. New Orders………………………… Motor vehicles and parts: Shipments………………………….. New Orders………………………… Nondefense aircraft and parts: Shipments………………………….. New Orders………………………… Defense aircraft and parts: Shipments………………………….. New Orders………………………… All other durable goods: Shipments………………………….. New Orders………………………… Capital goods: Shipments………………………….. New Orders………………………… Nondefense capital goods: Shipments………………………….. New Orders………………………… Excluding aircraft: Shipments……………………… New Orders…………………….. Defense capital goods: Shipments………………………….. New Orders…………………………
NA Not Available
1 r

Year to Date Percent Change 09/08

2

Jun 2009

r

2

r

2009

2008

173,096 168,428 129,812 124,729 159,336 155,099 124,496 124,054 13,044 13,417 23,550 23,087 22,441 21,741 29,838 25,481 4,485 4,529 5,464 5,384 4,226 (NA)

169,634 160,621 126,959 123,699 155,492 148,635 123,289 117,232 12,275 13,074 23,410 22,465 23,293 23,271 27,773 25,078 4,366 4,660 5,114 4,923 2,956 (NA)

168,483 162,674 126,434 120,739 155,038 147,619 121,472 119,135 12,073 11,649 23,223 22,410 23,158 22,272 27,718 24,769 4,352 4,635 4,579 4,952 3,472 (NA)

2.0 4.9 2.2 0.8 2.5 4.3 1.0 5.8 6.3 2.6 0.6 2.8 -3.7 -6.6 7.4 1.6 2.7 -2.8 6.8 9.4 43.0 (NA)

0.7 -1.3 0.4 2.5 0.3 0.7 1.5 -1.6 1.7 12.2 0.8 0.2 0.6 4.5 0.2 1.2 0.3 0.5 11.7 -0.6 -14.9 (NA)

-2.7 1.3 -1.4 0.8 -3.0 0.9 -2.1 3.2 -3.2 -0.2 -2.4 -2.6 1.5 7.2 -2.6 2.4 -0.5 15.9 -2.0 -0.6 -14.5 (NA)

163,971 155,665 128,163 122,148 151,428 145,751 117,583 114,793 13,415 13,894 23,704 23,143 21,703 21,428 28,368 22,301 4,004 4,048 4,627 4,425 5,516 (NA)

184,804 172,457 137,859 132,699 169,734 160,000 135,001 124,849 13,092 13,682 24,930 23,348 25,397 24,290 30,814 28,327 5,305 5,599 6,300 5,831 2,195 (NA)

199,721 1,197,111 1,482,423 195,439 1,110,205 1,495,796 157,454 153,534 898,141 1,111,090 848,679 1,100,615

-19.2 -25.8 -19.2 -22.9 -21.1 -27.5 -18.7 -27.8 -41.8 -44.9 -14.0 -18.9 -19.9 -30.2 -12.8 -11.2 -16.2 -17.1 -16.0 -15.7 -28.0 (NA)

188,655 1,106,739 1,403,492 186,657 1,026,196 1,414,621 145,033 146,959 23,312 23,505 28,286 27,574 28,204 31,694 29,928 22,887 4,341 4,207 4,888 4,631 6,208 (NA) 863,353 1,061,787 802,668 1,111,575 92,151 88,771 166,891 160,338 164,809 153,731 192,717 165,487 29,499 29,263 32,493 33,186 26,221 (NA) 158,429 161,185 193,967 197,747 205,853 220,295 220,893 186,300 35,203 35,309 38,691 39,375 36,415 (NA)

8,461 8,508 43,284 43,699 23,436 22,852 7,784 9,252 5,608 5,747 32,478 32,495 67,364 67,255 56,915 57,474 52,968 51,975 10,449 9,781

8,321 8,080 42,675 36,922 22,812 22,637 7,347 4,465 6,201 7,076 31,887 31,731 67,287 61,418 56,447 52,901 52,692 52,124 10,840 8,517

8,297 7,947 42,049 41,935 22,780 22,688 7,218 6,383 5,693 5,435 31,965 31,692 66,240 65,137 55,904 53,099 52,032 50,326 10,336 12,038

1.7 5.3 1.4 18.4 2.7 0.9 5.9 107.2 -9.6 -18.8 1.9 2.4 0.1 9.5 0.8 8.6 0.5 -0.3 -3.6 14.8

0.3 1.7 1.5 -12.0 0.1 -0.2 1.8 -30.0 8.9 30.2 -0.2 0.1 1.6 -5.7 1.0 -0.4 1.3 3.6 4.9 -29.2

-3.7 -2.0 -6.5 2.9 -9.0 -8.4 -7.0 60.4 7.4 0.3 -0.4 -1.0 -0.8 8.8 -1.0 9.1 -0.4 4.3 0.4 7.1

8,167 8,538 35,808 33,517 18,375 18,246 6,708 6,695 4,972 4,743 32,806 32,844 62,321 59,001 52,597 51,975 49,465 48,545 9,724 7,026

9,030 8,547 46,945 39,758 24,644 24,347 8,789 4,959 6,740 7,476 34,596 34,505 74,450 65,868 63,136 57,283 58,536 56,396 11,314 8,585

10,581 10,535 42,267 41,905 24,236 24,576 7,607 8,624 4,443 4,799 37,143 37,339 71,448 72,356 62,991 65,996 58,971 60,988 8,457 6,360

58,616 57,553 298,970 261,526 165,143 163,810 53,109 28,351 36,681 36,608 222,957 222,799 464,061 414,280 394,323 350,314 366,517 349,261 69,738 63,966

74,159 76,708 371,333 395,181 236,968 235,994 58,194 82,423 30,321 32,322 257,789 258,380 530,225 569,830 469,130 507,677 437,692 453,801 61,095 62,153

-21.0 -25.0 -19.5 -33.8 -30.3 -30.6 -8.7 -65.6 21.0 13.3 -13.5 -13.8 -12.5 -27.3 -15.9 -31.0 -16.3 -23.0 14.1 2.9

3

Revised

Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations. Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-3(07), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 2004-2007."

2

3

The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending, laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and medical equipment and supplies. Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment. Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separately.

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[Millions of Dollars]

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories
Seasonally Adjusted Percent Change May 2009 Jun Jul 2 May Jun r Apr May Jul 2009 2 Not Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Jun 2009 r Jul 2008
1

Monthly Item Jul 2009 2 Jun 2009 r

Percent Change 2009/ 2008

DURABLE GOODS Total: Unfilled Orders4……………………. Total Inventories………………….. Excluding transportation: Unfilled Orders4……………………. Total Inventories………………….. Excluding defense: Unfilled Orders4……………………. Total Inventories………………….. Manufacturing with unfilled orders: Unfilled Orders4……………………. Total Inventories………………….. Primary metals: Unfilled Orders……………………. Total Inventories………………….. Fabricated metal products: Unfilled Orders……………………. Total Inventories………………….. Machinery: Unfilled Orders……………………. Total Inventories………………….. Computers and electronic products: Unfilled Orders4……………………. Total Inventories………………….. Computers and related products: Unfilled Orders……………………. Total Inventories………………….. Communications equipment: Unfilled Orders……………………. Total Inventories………………….. Semiconductors: Unfilled Orders4……………………. Total Inventories 4………………….. Electrical equipment, appliances, and components: Unfilled Orders……………………. Total Inventories………………….. Transportation equipment: Unfilled Orders……………………. Total Inventories………………….. Motor vehicles and parts: Unfilled Orders……………………. Total Inventories………………….. Nondefense Aircraft and parts: Unfilled Orders……………………. Total Inventories………………….. Defense Aircraft and parts: Unfilled Orders……………………. Total Inventories………………….. All other durable goods: Unfilled Orders……………………. Total Inventories………………….. Capital goods: 3 Unfilled Orders……………………. Total Inventories………………….. Nondefense capital goods: Unfilled Orders……………………. Total Inventories………………….. Excluding aircraft: Unfilled Orders……………….. Total Inventories………………. Defense capital goods: Unfilled Orders……………………. Total Inventories…………………..
See footnotes at end of Table 1

740,245 314,108 306,267 220,164 582,366 287,897 740,245 252,839 14,708 25,455 49,350 38,052 86,855 50,068 123,956 43,693 3,854 4,276 37,385 9,310 (NA) (NA)

740,687 316,781 307,124 223,528 582,377 290,773 740,687 254,633 14,335 26,195 49,813 38,720 87,555 50,782 124,087 44,251 3,810 4,333 37,465 9,531 (NA) (NA)

746,744 321,576 307,428 228,370 586,278 295,320 746,744 258,790 13,536 27,067 50,758 39,625 87,577 51,583 123,826 45,590 3,516 4,406 37,656 10,498 (NA) (NA)

-0.1 -0.8 -0.3 -1.5 0.0 -1.0 -0.1 -0.7 2.6 -2.8 -0.9 -1.7 -0.8 -1.4 -0.1 -1.3 1.2 -1.3 -0.2 -2.3 (NA) (NA)

-0.8 -1.5 -0.1 -2.1 -0.7 -1.5 -0.8 -1.6 5.9 -3.2 -1.9 -2.3 0.0 -1.6 0.2 -2.9 8.4 -1.7 -0.5 -9.2 (NA) (NA)

-0.3 -1.2 -0.7 -1.5 -0.7 -1.3 -0.3 -1.2 -3.0 -3.2 -1.6 -1.9 -1.0 -1.5 0.4 -0.8 8.8 -4.2 1.0 1.7 (NA) (NA)

738,068 314,969 307,677 220,431 581,875 288,734 738,068 253,750 14,947 25,716 50,182 38,250 86,833 49,628 123,570 43,891 3,854 4,297 37,447 9,216 (NA) (NA)

740,858 313,164 308,176 221,000 582,036 287,151 740,858 251,872 14,468 26,036 50,743 38,403 87,108 50,078 124,121 43,340 3,810 4,154 37,649 9,175 (NA) (NA)

821,604 338,279 360,961 249,292 668,051 313,586 821,604 271,641 30,019 34,420 63,199 44,731 104,829 54,090 123,589 46,924 3,823 5,034 37,101 9,530 (NA) (NA)

-10.2 -6.9 -14.8 -11.6 -12.9 -7.9 -10.2 -6.6 -50.2 -25.3 -20.6 -14.5 -17.2 -8.2 0.0 -6.5 0.8 -14.6 0.9 -3.3 (NA) (NA)

20,149 12,878 433,978 93,944 14,002 18,662 285,883 48,176 48,324 15,791 11,249 50,018 567,734 158,640 426,233 138,461 175,481 100,029 141,501 20,179

20,102 12,934 433,563 93,253 14,586 18,776 284,415 47,664 48,185 15,531 11,232 50,646 567,843 159,517 425,674 139,487 176,474 101,380 142,169 20,030

20,343 13,194 439,316 93,206 14,761 18,930 287,297 47,121 47,310 15,482 11,388 51,311 573,712 161,417 429,220 141,161 177,042 103,585 144,492 20,256

0.2 -0.4 0.1 0.7 -4.0 -0.6 0.5 1.1 0.3 1.7 0.2 -1.2 0.0 -0.5 0.1 -0.7 -0.6 -1.3 -0.5 0.7

-1.2 -2.0 -1.3 0.1 -1.2 -0.8 -1.0 1.2 1.8 0.3 -1.4 -1.3 -1.0 -1.2 -0.8 -1.2 -0.3 -2.1 -1.6 -1.1

-1.7 -1.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -2.0 -0.3 0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -2.3 -1.1 -0.2 -0.7 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 1.2 -0.1

20,536 12,891 430,391 94,538 14,316 18,847 283,352 48,473 48,154 15,869 11,609 50,055 564,154 158,667 424,261 138,542 175,926 99,857 139,893 20,125

20,165 12,840 432,682 92,164 14,445 18,471 283,365 47,004 48,383 15,604 11,571 50,303 567,474 157,425 424,883 137,463 176,846 99,885 142,591 19,962

25,613 15,206 460,643 88,987 17,591 23,635 304,844 39,539 45,303 14,391 13,712 53,921 615,062 158,374 477,362 139,086 204,893 108,082 137,700 19,288

-19.8 -15.2 -6.6 6.2 -18.6 -20.3 -7.1 22.6 6.3 10.3 -15.3 -7.2 -8.3 0.2 -11.1 -0.4 -14.1 -7.6 1.6 4.3

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Survey Description
This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations), end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value), and inventories by stage of fabrication (materials and supplies, work-in-process, and finished goods). The M3 includes approximately 4,300 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample, these 89 categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the month-tomonth changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the month-tomonth movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the survey show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 61 percent of the shipments estimates at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code. The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 4,300 reporting units and provide an indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 4,300 companies would yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore, the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source. Any corrections will be published in the full report. Corrections received after the full report will be released in the next month’s advance report. Any revisions made later than two months will be reflected in the annual benchmark publication. Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3.