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The Nile Basin Initiative _NBI_

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					The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI)



Building a Cooperative Future

         Water Week
        February 2009
The NBI: Building a Cooperative Future


             The Context: The River Nile
             The Nile Basin Initiative
               Overview and Evolution
               Achievements to-date
               Future Directions
              Lessons Learned



                                           2
      The Nile Basin
  World’s longest river (6,650 km);
global cultural & environmental assets
 Shared by 10 countries
Burundi D.R. Congo Egypt (Eritrea)
Ethiopia Kenya       Rwanda
Sudan    Tanzania    Uganda
 300 m people (600m by 2025)
 Region of Extremes
    Poverty: 5 of 15 poorest in world
    High variability & climate change
    Landscape vulnerability
    Conflict: 7 countries
Very limited infrastructure….
    10% HEP potential developed
    15% population with electricity
    < 10% irrigable land irrigated
          (except Egypt & Sudan)
                                THE RIVER: Hydrologic Challenges

                                  Small flow system-wide (~ 85 bcm/yr)
                                     6% Congo; 17% Niger; 2% Amazon; 12% Yangtze
                                  High rainfall variability across the Basin
                                     Ethiopia: tributaries contribute 86-95% flow at Aswan
                                     High equatorial flows evaporated in Sudd
                                        (White Nile contributes 15%)
                                     Egypt: minimal rain & no flow additions
                                     Sudan: 65% basin and confluence major tribs
                                  High variability intra- & inter-annually (+/- 25 – 30%)
                                  High system ‘losses’ (~ 40% )




Annual Rainfall
Annual Evaporation   Growing populations, increased water demands, climate
                     change …. and continued unilateral development ….
                                                                                    4
                     likely to exacerbate conditions
THE RIVER: Opportunities for Cooperative Investments
 Hydropower where gradient is high
   especially Ethiopia, Uganda; also S. Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi
 Extensive rainfed/supplementary irrigated agriculture where rainfall is
 high, gradient low parts of all equatorial countries, S. Sudan, Ethiopia
 Irrigated agriculture where rainfall & gradient low
   especially Egypt, Sudan
 Joint management transboundary environmental assets and risks


                                                        …River as catalyst
                                                        for broad benefits
                                                        “ beyond the river”
                    The Nile Basin Initiative:
                           What is it?

                              Guided by a Shared Vision:
                                 To achieve sustainable
                         socio-economic development through
                        equitable utilization of, and benefit from,
                        the common Nile Basin water resources.

                                                    Shared Vision
                           Regional
                        partnership for             Shared
                         cooperative                Vision
                            action                 Program

                                                            Subsidiary
                                                           Action Prog.

                                                     Action on the    6
Established Feb. 1999
                                                       ground
  NBI: What has it accomplished ?
A (transitional) regional institution
  Institution to advance cooperation
  Broad-based network professionals (> 500 NBI & gov’t/national)
  Moving to permanent river basin commission
           Cooperative Framework technical negotiations concluded

Foundation for river basin management
   Multi-sectoral, basin-wide, grant program (SVP)
   Intellectual capital, strategies & technical tools for basin management

Delivering investments for water development
  Sub-basin investment programs promoting development & integration
  Implementing first phase of investments ($700 m) (FY07-09)
    furthering integration & cooperation
  Next phase of investments under identification & preparation  7
NBI Project Portfolio: In Summary
                                     Nile Basin
                                    Management




                                     Nile Basin
                                    Development 8
                       The NBI: An Evolving Process


                       Political Dialogue                      Increasing visibility & broadened dialogue
Development focus




                                                                            Implementation of SVP           One NBI
                                          Preparation of SVP

                                   Institution & Capacity Building




                                  Identifying & preparing investment programs

                                                                            Realizing investments
                                  NBI       ICCON         NBTF                                          NBTF closes
Legal & inst.




                    1995   1997                                                                                       2020
                                   1999    2001            2003    2004   2007                  2010        2013



                                                                                                                         9
                                   The Cooperative Framework                               Permanent river basin commission
                                                   NBI Institutional Set-Up


                                                        NILE Council of Ministers
                                                                Nile-COM
                                ENTRO
                                 Addis
                          Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan   Nile Technical Advisory Committee
                                                                Nile-TAC
     NBI
SECRETARIAT
   Entebbe                                                  NBI Secretariat
                                                               Nile-SEC




NELSAP-CU
   Kigali
   Burundi, DR Congo, Egypt, Kenya, Rwanda,
            Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda
   The Shared Vision Program:
   Nile Basin River Management
What is it?
     Basin-wide, grant-funded (~$100 m) multi-sectoral TA program

Original Objectives
     Build trust among riparians
     Build skills & capacity (“level playing field”)
     Build an enabling environment for cooperative investments

Evolving context & focus
     Moving towards permanent Nile institution
     Growing needs of SAP investment programs
       Technical foundation for river basin management


                                                                    11
                                           Applied Training Project (APT)
SVP:
Decentralized
Approach

        Nile Transboundary Environmental
        Action Project (NTEAP)
                                                               ENTRO
                                                                Addis




                        NBI                             Water Resources Planning and
                   SECRETARIAT                          Management (WRPM)
                      Entebbe




Confidence Building and
Stakeholder Involvement (CBSI)
                                                  Efficient Water Use for Agricultural
Socio-economic Development and                    Production (EWUAP)
Benefit Sharing (SDBS)

 Shared Vision Program Coordination
 Project (SVP-C)
                                                      Regional Power Trade (RPT)
              NELSAP-CU
                Kigali
SVP: A Coordinated Program
Basin-wide enabling
  environment …
                                   Socio-Econ Development
                                          & Benefits
                               •Benefit sharing principles
                               • Network &r research on transboundary issues


         Environment                                              Water Resources
 • Transb diagnostic analysis                                     • Nile Basin DSS
 • Mico grants & env education                                    • Data sharing procedures
 •WQ & wetlands strat/procedures
                                      Investments for
                                                                  • Water policy
                                      Socio-Economic
                                        Development
    Power Trade                           (SAPs)                       Agriculture
 • Training & power data bank
                                                                     • Regional Studies (Agr water use)
  • Regional power trade studies
                                                                     • Best Practices & guidelines


                 Applied Training
                                                    Confidence Bldg
                • University network
                •Training & curriculum           • Communications & participation strategies
                • Capacity Bldg strategy         • Extensive Stakeholder networks

                                                                                                   13
                                                                                ... And precursor to
                                                                               permanent institution
     SVP Achievements To Date:
     Mid-term review findings

1.    Meeting goals & achieving critical outcomes
        Creating an enabling environment for investments
          • Nile SAPs delivering & fostered regional investment

        Establishing technical foundation for water resources mgmt
          • Information mgmt & modeling system for Nile
          • Suite of basin strategies & practices
          • Cadre of trained ‘regional’ professionals
        Building trust through a Nile basin community of interest
          • Multi-sectoral engagement ministries, utilities, NGOs, univ.

        Strengthening the NBI as a trusted institution
         • Key role in information sharing & notification
         • Technical negotiations for Cooperative Framework concluded

2. However, delivery of individual SVP projects uneven
                                                                           14
Current Focus: Completion of SVP (by 2010)
Capturing Benefits to Build a Sustainable Institution


       SVP Building Blocks                      Core NBI Functions
Intellectual capital                          NBI Corporate Management

                                              Knowledge-based Water
Knowledge products & info.
                                              Resource Management
(e.g, best pract, data bases, curriculum)
                                              Water Resource
Strategic frameworks                          Development
(e.g, benefit sharing, water policy, envi.)

Tools & assets                                Stakeholder Involvement
(e.g., DSS, models, GIS, computers)           and Communications
Networks of professionals

                                                      National and
                                                                        15
                                               other regional institutions
                                  Burundi
 NELSAP Investment Program:       DRC
 Facilitating Water Development   Egypt
                                  Kenya
                                  Rwanda
                                  Sudan
Unique Characteristics            Tanzania
  Multiple countries              Uganda
  Smaller agrarian-based
  economies
  High rainfall and lake-
  based hydrology
  Multiple regional players
  (e.g.,LVBC)
  History working together
  (i.e., EAC)… but cross
  border civil strife



                                       16
NELSAP: Natural Resources Management


Initial focus: Transboundary projects & pre-investment activities
  Transboundary IWRM & D
        Sio-Malaba-Malakisi (Ky/Ug)       $ 4.8m preparation
        Mara (Ky/TZ)                      $ 4.8m
        Kagera (Bu/Rw/Ug/Tz)              $ 8. m
  Lake Albert & Edward Fisheries          $2.5m
  Regional Ag Trade & Productivity $8m
  Investment preparation for Burundi & Rwanda in LVEMP2
  supported through Kagera IWRM project
Scaling Up & Moving to investment: Scale-up ongoing or new
  inter-country & in-country with regional implications
        NEL WRM & D Program
            Targeted project preparation
            Regional multi-sectoral analysis & scoping study
                                                               17
 NELSAP BASINS &
 NRM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL AND ISSUES
                                   Albert Nile and
                                   Bahr el Jebel & the
Semliki Basin / Lakes              Sudd (Ug/Sd)
George, Albert, Edward
(DRC/Ug)                               Aswa Develp Project

      Scale -up
     LEAF Project                   Lake Kyoga basin
                                    (Ug/Ky)
                                       Lake Kyoga +
                                       Malabi-Malakisi


   Lake Victoria Basin
   (Bu, Rw, Tz, Ug, Ky)              Sio- Kenya
                                     W. Kenya CDD
                                   & NWR projects
 Rusumo Falls MP
    Kagera Basin

                                    Mara – TZ
                                     TZ SWAP
     NELSAP: Power Program

        Power Options & Strategic Social & Environmental Assessment (2007)
        Regional Interconnection projects (4 key lines) $ 296 m
             $ 150 m by AfDB (Ky-Ug, Ug-Rw, Rw-Bu, Bu-DRC-Rw)
               $47 m by WB for Ky-Ug line as part of a larger East Africa Power Market APL

        Regional Rusumo Falls Hydro & Multipurpose ~$ 200m FY07-10
               Multipurpose hydro (~70 MWW)
               Regional transmission (Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania)
               Area development
        Scaling up: supporting the Eastern Afr. Power Market APL & other
        - interconnection (Ky/Tz and Ug/DRC) & generation (Northeast DRC) & PTAs



                                                                                    Tz-Rw
Downstream                                                                          bridge
Rusumo Falls
                                                                                         19
NEL Region Proposed Power Interconnections   20
Ethiopia       The Eastern Nile
Egypt
Sudan      Shared rivers-shared challenges
            Growing population (180 m people)
            Extreme variability (floods, droughts)
            High system losses (40%)
            High upland erosion & vulnerability
            Low access electricity (<15%) & agr productivity
            Poverty & asymmetry ($200 to $1600 GDP)
            …history of dispute


             Risk of unilateral development
                Water limited & at risk
               National development outside basin
               context will result in serious stress

              Imperative of cooperation
               Water savings from cooperative
               development to maximize gains,
               minimize looses & share risks
               Reduce environmental degradation
  Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program
  (ENSAP)
Current Investment Projects
• Irrigation & Drainage
     • Egypt West Delta   $213 m Jun07
     • Ethiopia I&D        110 m Jun07
     • Sudan               100 m
•Ethiopia-Sudan Power Interconnection
    • Ethiopia            43 m Dec07
    • Sudan               24 m
• Flood Preparedness & Early Warning
     • FPEW1 (regional)       4 m Jun07
     • FPEW2 (regional/natl) 42 m
• Watershed Management 75 m       Apr09
    • Regional
    • Ethiopia (TBIWDP)
    • Sudan
    • Lake Nassar/Nubia
• Eastern Nile Planning Model 7m Mar09
ENSAP: Regional / Multipurpose

Regional Cooperative Assessments
  Regional Power Trade
  Watershed management
  Irrigation & drainage

Joint Multipurpose Program
“Launch a first phase of identification of a
major program of multipurpose joint
development of the Eastern Nile”
  Identify an initial project within broader
multipurpose program
   Ensure good practice in economic, social &
environmental analysis & consultation
                           ENCOM & Energy Minister 2005
    EN
    Regional Studies



  Regional Power Generation Costs
USD/MWh
                     Crude STPP
   130               Gasoil CCGT

   120

   110
                     Kajbar / Shereiq
   100
                     Dagash
   90

   80

   70     Gas CCGT   Dal                 Gogeb / Aleltu

   60                Coal STTP

   50                                    Genale VI                      Ethiopia hydro:
   40                HPP Barh el Jebel   Border
                                         Karadobi / Genale III          Least cost regional
   30                                    Mandaya / Chemoga Yeda

   20
                                         Halele / Baro / Geba / Gengi   power (2 - 4c / kwh)
   10
          EGYPT       SUDAN               ETHIOPIA
    0
                                                                                          24
EN Scoping Study:
Key Conclusions

 While the Eastern Nile resources are limited …
 there are opportunities for development ..”room” JMP1
 The Blue Nile system provides the best opportunity for a first set
 of JMP investments
 Water losses are high…and continued unilateral development is
 very risky
 But there are significant water savings opportunities
 Regional cooperation is essential to maximize benefits &
 manage risks…but appropriate institutions will be required
 Enhanced agriculture production in Ethiopia highlands is key to
 reducing erosion and improving livelihoods
                                                              25
EN Next Steps:
JMP1 Identification in Blue-Main Nile
 “ …considering the findings of these studies, particularly regarding
 the significant benefits of cooperation and the serious risks of non-
 cooperation, ENCOM agrees to initiate identification and preparation
 of a first joint multipurpose program of investments in the Blue-Main
 Nile systems…”
                                                           - ENCOM 25, Oct 2008

IN THE EN Basin
  Strategic Social & Eniv Assessment                       Regional
                                             JMP1         Institutions
  Analysis & consultation to identify
potential project sites                                                  Floodplain
                                              ANCHOR
                                                                           Mgmt
                                            Dam + Hydro
In the Bank                             Regional Transmission
                                           Watershed Mgmt
  Due diligence for continued           (reservoir + hot spots)
engagement in JMP                                                    Watershed
                                                                     Management
   AAA “EN Strategic Basin                                            livelihood
Assessment & Assistance Strategy”                    Irrigation
                                                     Modern.

                                                                                      26
NBI Institutional Strengthening
Moving from a “Program” to Permanent Institution

 Context: Despite remarkable progress,
   NBI lacks institutional depth
   Need to harmonize policies & procedures
   Need clarify linkages with other regional organizations needs
   Purposeful strengthening timely
      SVP concluding and need to mainstream benefits
      Scaling up of SAP investment activities
      Need to prepare for future basin organization

   Institutional strengthening objective
   NBI has strengthened foundation for institutional sustainability,
   enhanced capacity, and harmonized corporate management
   to more effectively deliver programs & projects


                                                                   27
   NBI Institutional Strengthening
   3 years; $34 m ($24 m NBTF grant funded)


       Components                         Some Key Activities
    (NBI Core Functions)
1. Strengthen & Harmonize        - Institutional Design Study
Corporate Management             - Harmonize & strengthen admin systems
                                 - Strengthen national & regional linkages

2. Knowledge-based Water         - Establish IWRM ‘function’

Resource Management              - Consolidate information & KM systems
                                 - Initiate suite policies & practices (BSF)
                                 - Mainstream SVP outputs
3. Water Resource Development    - Strengthen project ident & preparation
                                 - Strengthen project mgmt & supervision

4. Stakeholder Involvement and   - Stakeholder participation
Communications                   - Corporate communications
                                 - Social development & communications
                                                                            28
NBI Strategic Directions

 Conclude the Cooperative Framework and
 establish permanent institution

 Strengthen & harmonize “One NBI”

 SVP effective completion & migration core
 functions to permanent institution

 Align regional/national agendas for effective
 project financing & delivery


                                                 29
Lessons: Some Success Factors

 Ownership – riparian led, managed & staffed
 Long-term and high level commitment
 Consensus decision making approach
 Adaptability
 Multiple track approach
    Political dialogue
    Trust & capacity building
    Delivering tangible results
 Strong partnerships
                                               30
          Partnerships to support NBI
     AfDB
    Canada*        International Discourse
   Denmark*                                                   Burundi
European Union*   NBI Development Partners
                                                              DRC
    Finland*                                                  Egypt
                      NBTF Committee
    France*
      GEF                                                     (Eritrea)
    Germany                                                   Ethiopia
                             NBI
      Italy                                                   Kenya
     Japan                                                    Rwanda
 Netherlands*                                                 Sudan
    Norway*
                                                              Tanzania
    Sweden*
  Switzerland                                                 Uganda
United Kingdom*
                  Public-Private Partnership
  World Bank*
     UNDP                                * Denotes NBTF committee member
Lessons: Challenges Ahead

In the Basin
  Move to permanent institution
  Unrealistic expectations
      river management agency vs. basin development agency
  Sustainability, financial and otherwise
  Strategic communications
  Aligning regional perspective with national priorities


In the Bank
  Sustaining management commitment & budgets
  Evolving role (‘no foot print’ facilitator to financier)
  Multisectoral nature     coordination & communication
  Aligning regional perspective with country priorities
                                                             32
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