SIA Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Worksheet
2002 2003 2004 2005
Revenues $29,401,280 $31,980,720 $34,678,530 $37,541,910
% Growth 8.8% 8.4% 8.3%
Net Income 1,907,370 2,757,300 3,433,440 3,840,960
% Margin 6.5% 8.6% 9.9% 10.2%
Add: Depreciation $1,652,600 $1,686,360 $1,926,920 $2,259,410
% of Sales 5.6% 5.3% 5.6% 6.0%
Less: Capital Expenditures $1,987,020 $2,100,380 $2,567,140 $3,950,550
% of Sales 6.8% 6.6% 7.4% 10.5%
Free Cash Flow to Equity $1,572,950 $2,343,280 $2,793,220 $2,149,820
Discount Rate 10.04%
PV of Projected Cash Flows $18,080,188 Discounted Cash Flows:
PV of Terminal Value CF $66,999,732
Fair Value $85,079,920
Shs. Outstanding (thousands) 1,330,000
Per Share Fair Value $63.97
Current Share Price $55.91
Margin % 14.4%
1 2 3 4 5
2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E
$41,567,590 $46,223,160 $51,307,708 $56,438,478 $61,235,749 $65,828,430
10.7% 11.2% 11.0% 10.0% 8.5% 7.5%
4,553,250 $5,223,217 $5,900,386 $6,659,740 $7,225,818 $7,767,755
11.0% 11.3% 11.5% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8%
$2,622,940 $3,235,621 $3,181,078 $3,104,116 $3,061,787 $3,291,422
6.3% 7.0% 6.2% 5.5% 5.0% 5.0%
$4,248,620 $4,622,316 $4,720,309 $4,797,271 $4,898,860 $5,266,274
10.2% 10.0% 9.2% 8.5% 8.0% 8.0%
$2,927,570 $3,836,522 $4,361,155 $4,966,586 $5,388,746 $5,792,902
Discounted Cash Flows: $3,486,417 $3,601,512 $3,727,202 $3,674,974 $3,590,083
Perpetuity
$68,790,710
4.5%
$7,535,229
11.0%
$3,959,434
5.8%
$5,503,257
8.0%
$5,991,406
$3,713,103
Revenue Growth
0.25 0.12
0.2 0.1
0.08
0.15
0.06
0.1
0.04
0.05 0.02
0 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2002
Depreciation as % of Sales
0.046 0.14
0.045 0.12
0.044 0.1
0.043 0.08
0.042 0.06
0.041 0.04
0.04 0.02
0.039 0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2002
Net Income Margin
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E
CAPEX as % of Sales
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E
Risk free (30-year T-bond) 5.38%
Market risk premium 5.30%
Beta 0.88
Cost of Equity 10.04%
$63.97 5% 7.00% 9.00% 11.00% 13.00% 15.00%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E
2010E 2011E
Discount Rate 10.04%
PV of Projected Cash Flows $18,080,188
PV of Terminal Value CF $66,999,732
Fair Value $85,079,920
Shs. Outstanding (thousands) 1,330,000
Per Share Fair Value $63.97
Current Share Price $55.91
Margin % 14.4%