Population
Sources:
The World Food Problem
Leathers and Foster, 2004
World Hunger 12 Myths
Lappe Collins and Rossett, 1998
Hesketh et al.,
New England J. Med 353: 1171-1176
Wikipedia
ttp://www.amazon.com/World-Food-Problem-
Toward-Undernutrition/dp/1588266389
Thomas Malthus
• 1798: Essay on the Principle
of Population as it Affects the
Future Improvement of Society
– Population growth tends
to outstrip the means of
subsistence
– Food increases
arithmetically while
population increases
geometrically
– The poor can be kept alive
by charity, but since they
would then propagate,
this is cruelty in disguise.
http://www.lakesideschool.org/studentweb/worldhistory/modernworld/images/malthus.jpg
Paul Ehrlich
• 1968: The Population
Bomb
• “The battle to feed all of
humanity is over.
• In the 1970s the world
will undergo famines—
• Hundreds of millions of
people are going to
starve to death”
http://bacs-s02.bacs.uq.edu.au/sib/sib-news/images/ehrlich1.jpg
World Population through History
http://newswhitehouse.com/worldpop.gif
Demographic Transition
• First, high birth
rates and high
death rates
• Then, improved
living standards,
health cause death
rates to drop
• Finally, low birth
rates match low
death rates
Global Death Rates
• Demographic Transition:
– First, death rates must drop
– Then birth rates drop http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/com
mons/thumb/d/d7/Death_rate_world_map.P
NG/800px-Death_rate_world_map.PNG
Demographic Transition
• 1750-1950: Occurred in
developed countries
• 1950: Began to see death
rates drop in developing
countries
• 2050: Projected
completion of transition
Demographic Transition
• Example: U.S.
History
– When agrarian
society, people
had many kids
• Source of
security, labor
Demographic Transition
• Example: U.S.
History
– When became industrial,
fewer kids/family
• Lowered infant
mortality
• No need to rely on
children’s labor
• More opportunities for
women
• Happened without
birth control
Ford Motor assembly line
http://websupport1.citytech.cuny.edu/Faculty/pcatapano/lectures_us2/Model_T_Assembly_Line.jpg
Global Fertility
• 1950’s: 5
children/woman
• 1970’s: 4
children/woman
• 1990’s: 2.8
children/woman
• Replacement: 2.1
children/woman
Global Population
• Population growth rate is
slowing down and will
eventually stop
• Dip in 1960 due to 30
million deaths in China
– Great Leap Forward
Famine
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/img/worldgr.gif
World Population Projection
• Estimated to peak at 9 billion in 2070
World Population Growth
World Population Demographics
• Asia: 6.4 Billion
– China:: 1.3 Billion
– India: : 1.1 Billion
• Africa: 885 Million
• Americas: 875 Million
• Europe:: 727 Million
• Oceana: 32 Million
http://www.extension.umn.edu/distribution/livestocksystems/images/7220f03.gif
World Population
http://www.theglobaleducationproject.org/earth/images/final-images/g-gpw-population-map.gif
AIDS
• 40 million people infected
with HIV
– 2/3 in sub Sahara Africa
– Many will die of AIDS
• Will not greatly impact
global population growth
• Will Impact some countries
• Losses by 2020:
– Uganda 45%
– Rwanda 35%
Malawi AIDS orphans – Malawi 30%
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/177/433616103_bd3f7cbef2.jpg?v=0
Global HIV 2006
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/68/People_living_with_HIV_AIDS_world_map.PNG/800px-People_living_with_HIV_AIDS_world_map.PNG
Food Production per Capita
• Food Production per
capita is rising
worldwide
– But falling in Africa
• Food production is
keeping up with
population
– Otherwise food prices
would have risen
– Food prices have dropped
Food Production in Sub-Saharan
Africa
• Food Production in
Sub Saharan Africa
not keeping up with
population
Per Capita Production of
Calories, Fat, Protein
Progressivist View
• Things are good and getting
better:
– Worldwide standard of living
– Education
– Health
– Trade
• People are an asset.
• Population causes shortages
which raise prices,
– stimulating entrepreneurs to
satisfy the shortages.
• We end up better off as a
Julian Simon result.
Progressivist View
• Two important
indicators of progress
and improvement in
life are
– Decreased Infant
Mortality
– Increased Life
Expectancy
Progressivist View
Elite
Progress
Elite
Poor
Poor Population stimulates
economy: progress.
We are all better off
Revisionist View
• Adoption and spread of agriculture
have trapped humanity in a spiral of
– Population growth
– Ecological destruction
– Social tyranny.
• The problem stems from the
anti-ecological culture (religion)
of agricultural societies
– humans believe they are above and
not part of nature (global ecosystem)
– and therefore can destroy it at will.
Civilization is based on http://cache.virtualtourist.com/1928244-Skyline-New_York_City.jpg
Agriculture
Daniel Quinn
• 1992: Ishmael
– Although population is 5.5 billion, we
produce enough food for 6.0 billion even
though millions are starving
– Because we produce enough food for 6
billion, in 3 or 4 years there will be 6
billion people.
– Then, even though millions are starving,
we will produce enough for 6.5 billion.
– Thus in another 3-4 years there will be
6.5 billion
– To halt this process, must face the fact
that increasing food production doesn’t
feed the hungry, it only fuels the
population explosion.
Agricultural Revolution
Hunters & Agriculture
Gatherers
Food
Expanding production
Conquest
for land population &
environmental
destruction
Population
Technology Growth
Culture
Revisionist View
Elite
Over-
Agriculture, Population,
Anti-Ecological
Ecological
Religion Wealth Resources
Destruction
Poor
Root
Causes Social Tyranny
Social Equity View
• Problems of
– poverty
– overpopulation
– ecological destruction
• Are due to
– inequity of wealth
– unfairness of economic
and social systems
Frances Moore
Lappe, Food First
http://www.mediathatmattersfest.org/mtm05/img/frances_moore_lappe.jpg
Social Equity View
• Inequity causes
overpopulation
– Poor have no other source
of wealth
• Overpopulation causes
ecological destruction
• Must make economic
and social systems fairer
– Share control of global
resources more fairly
– Economic democracy
http://bks4.books.google.com/books?id=AoMrJnk-qhgC&printsec=frontcover&img=1&zoom=1&sig=ACfU3U3gtcaFOie7F_YcDq-G10QXTEZAQg
Social Equity View
Elite
Wealth
Over- Ecological
Poor
Population Destruction
Inequity
= Root Cause
If the world were 100 people
http://shoesforhumanity.org/images/graph.gif
If the world were 100 people
(2008)
• 50 male
– 50 female
• 61 Asians
– 13 Africans
– 12 Europeans
– 9 Latin Americans
– 5 USA and Canada
– 1 South Pacific
• 75 nonwhite
– 25 white
• 67 non-Christian
– 33 Christian
• 60 mistrust their own
(Source: Family Care Foundation; governments
100 people.org)
If the world were 100 people
(2008)
• 47 are urban dwellers
– 15 live in urban slums
• 33 attempt to live on 3% of
global income
• 6 control 50% of the entire
world’s wealth
– Most are U.S. citizens
• 1 has a college education
• 1 owns a computer
• 1 near birth
– 1 near death
Both hunger and high fertility
occur when:
• Poverty is extreme and
widespread
• Society denies security and
opportunity to people
• Infant mortality is high
• Most people can’t get land,
jobs, education, health care,
old age security
• Few opportunities for
women outside of home
Bangladesh mother
http://www.refugeesinternational.org/files/4738_image1_BA_1104_bihari_mother_and_child.jpg
Children
• Labor force
• Chance for a job in
city
• Security
– major investment
– rational choice
218 million children work
http://mancelovici.files.wordpress.com/2007/07/nike_child_labor.jpg
Women’s Education
• Powerful predictor
of lower fertility
• Reflects opportunity
in society
Girls in school, India
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b8/Girls_in_school_Gujarat.jpg/800px-Girls_in_school_Gujarat.jpg
Male Poverty
• Low self-esteem
• Dominate women and
children
• Thus more children
Examples
• Sri Lanka:
– lower price rice
• led to population decline
• Cuba:
– low prices for food and health care
• reduced population rate from 4.7 to 1.6
• Kerala, India:
– lower price rice, kerosene
• 1/3 birth rate of average in India
• Literacy for women is 2.5 times average in
India
Kerala, India
http://www.kerala-tourism-india.com/gifs/woman-harvesting-rice-fields-lower.jpg
Family Planning
• Birth Control is responsible for only 15-
20% total fertility decline
– Thus population growth cannot be
brought down simply by family planning
or contraception
– but it can speed the decline
• Contraceptive use in Developing World
has increased
– 9% in 1960
– 60% in late 1990s
IUD: Intra Uterine • Demographic Transition requires
Device improved
– Health
http://www.plymouth.edu/wsgr/iud.jpg
– Social Security
– Education
Global Fertility
http://www.who.int/healthinfo/statistics/15.whostat2005map_totalfertilityrate.jpg
Sterilization
• Encouraged by Western
donors for developing
countries
– Quotas are set
– Incentives are used
• Cash, roads, transportation,
latrines
• For hungry, choices are
limited
• 1/3 of married women in
India and China are sterilized
Indian woman
Puerto Rico: La Operacion
• U. S. seized in 1898
– Spanish American war
• Sugar companies set up vast
plantations
– Small farmers evicted
• By 1925
– 2% of population owned 80% of land
– 70% of population landless’
• Unemployment
– termed “overpopulation” by U.S.
• By 1940’s
– light manufacturing moved in
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/americas/puerto_rico.jpg • attracted to cheap labor, low taxes
Puerto Rico: La Operacion
• Young women were key to labor force
– Problem was pregnancy
• Result: massive sterilization program
• Women coerced into sterilization
– without being told it was irreversible
• By 1968
– 1/3 of women childbearing age were sterilized
• Emigration and sterilization
– resulted in population drop
• with no increase in standard of living.
Bangladesh
• Intensive Family
Planning
– in Matlab region
• Contraceptive use
doubled
• Resulted in reduced
birth rate
• Cost was very high:
– $120/birth averted
• This is 120% of per capita
gross domestic product
• Not replicable on a
national scale
http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2006/HEALTH/parenting/05/08/mothers.index/story.vert.1.1.jpg
China
• 1950s, 60s Under Mao
– children encouraged
– Fertility rate: 5.9 children/woman
• 1970-1979 new policy to cope
with overpopulation
– “one is good, 2 is ok, 3 is too many”
– “late, long, few”
• Have fewer children later
• greater spacing between
• Fertility dropped steeply to 2.9
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/asia_pac/02/china_party_con
gress/china_ruling_party/key_people_events/html/default.stm
Fertility decline in China
China One Child Policy
• 1979 “one child” policy
enacted
– For urban areas
• Material benefits
– if have 1 child
• Social & official pressure
– If have more than 1 child
• 71% Chinese are rural
– Multiple children are common
• Fertility rate has declined
http://www.timeopinionleaders.com/blog/images/uploads/knCHINA_BABIES_wide
web__470x316,0.jpg
– But also declined in other Asian
countries without coercion
• Human rights violation?
Birth Control Methods in China
Skewed sex ratio
• Sex ratio at birth (2000)
– 117:100 male:female
• Maternal Hepatitis B may account
for much of the skewing
• Boys preferred
– Men care for parents in old age
– Women join husband’s family
• Care for husband’s parents
• Selective abortion of girls
– Use ultrasound to determine sex
– If first child is a girl, want second
to be a boy
– Illegal but suspected
• Female infanticide suspected
– before ultrasound