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Implementation of Offshore Wind Power Potential of Tidal Wave

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									SUSTAINABLE USE OF OCEANS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE GREEN ECONOMY AND THE
  ERADICATION OF POVERTY, PRINCIPALITY OF MONACO, 28 – 30 NOVEMBER, 2011

                       Implementation of Offshore Wind Power &
                  Potential of Tidal, Wave and Ocean Current Energy
                                   Magdalena A K Muir
                  Research Associate, Arctic Institute of North America &
                Advisory Board Member, Climate, Coastal and Marine Union
           November 25, 2011 Preliminary Draft Outline of Paper and Presentation



1. Introduction: Global Trends and Investment for Renewable Energy

Concerns about energy security are growing. At the same time, critical need to respond to
climate change. Many governments have promoted renewable low-carbon energy that can
strengthen energy security. Renewable energy is the fastest growing portion of energy sector.

Growth in renewable energy is focused on a few of the available technologies. Rapid deployment
is confined to a relatively small number of countries. In more advanced markets, managing costs
and integration of renewable energy in a time of austerity has sparked political debate.

Wind has grown most rapidly in absolute terms and has overtaken bioenergy. Progress in
renewable electricity is focused in the more developed countries and economies such as Europe
and North America, and in Brazil, India and China. These developed economies were the only
region where the deployment of offshore wind reached a significant scale.

Renewable energy is cost-competitive in an increasing range of circumstances, providing
investment opportunities without the need for economic supports. It is a valuable component of a
secure and sustainable energy economy, providing energy at a low cost with high price stability.

Deployment can be delayed or prevented by barriers related to regulatory and policy uncertainty,
institutional and administrative arrangements or infrastructure that may be unsuited to a more
distributed energy supply or the high up-front capital costs of renewable energy.

Sustainability and social acceptance can also be critical issues for some technologies. Regulatory
and policy uncertainty may play a significant role, even when economic barriers are removed.

Onshore wind developments demonstrate that those countries that have managed to induce a
dynamic and stable market have adhered to the best practice policy principles. Countries without
comprehensive and stable policy framework on the other hand, have seen boom-and-bust cycles
in deployment and, accordingly, a less well-developed market, particularly in terms of the
domestic supply chain.

[Citation: International Energy Agency, Deploying Renewables, 2011]


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The focus of the renewable power market is rapidly moving away from the traditional mature
markets of Europe and the US. Smaller markets are expanding far more aggressively as their
power demand ramps up more quickly and – more importantly – there remains considerable
unexploited potential for renewable power in these regions. In absolute terms Europe will be the
biggest market for renewable power over the next five years, but following that China will lead.
The Middle East and North African market will also grow very quickly over with most of the
investment from solar technologies replacing oil-fired power plants
In China, investment in renewable will continue to increase. By 2014, China will become the
largest single market for renewable energy, with an annual spend of just under $50bn, accounting
for 21% of the world market. The US and Canada are also expected to see no lasting slowdown,
together hitting $50bn of investment by 2020. By far the most rapid growth will be seen in the
rapidly developing economies of India, the Middle East and North Africa, Africa and Latin
America. By 2020, the markets outside of the Europe, US, Canada and China will account for
50% of world demand.

The aggregate share of renewable technologies, such as wind, solar and geothermal, and Carbon
Capture Sequestration will grow from 5% in 2010 to 19% in 2030, corresponding to a 10%
compound annual growth rate. Reflecting the rising production and investment, installed
capacity of renewable power sources is also projected to climb, reaching 2.5TW by 2030 –
growth of over 800%. Therefore expect around 1.1TW of new build until 2020, with 36% from
solar and 46% onshore wind, followed by 1.4TW between 2021 and 2030, of which half will be
new solar installations and 37% onshore wind.

Total clean energy investment in the power sector, including the cost of replacing or refurbishing
aging installations, is expected to exceed $5.4 trillion over the next 20 years. Up to 2020, an
average $229bn will be invested each year, increasing to $314bn from 2021. Solar will attract
around half, at $1.1 trillion between 2011 and 2030, and $1.5 trillion in the next decade. Wind
(onshore and offshore) will follow, absorbing a little over one-third of total investment this
decade and 41% over the next. The relatively high levels of investment in wind are due to the
large number of new offshore installations expected in Europe, mainly UK and Germany, before
2020, as well as the refurbishment of old wind farms in the EU, US and China over 2026-30

[Citation: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Global Renewable Energy Market Outlook,
November 16, 2011].




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2. Offshore Wind Energy and Related Electricity Grid Infrastructure

Introduction

While current, tidal and wave energy has greater potential globally, the highest potential and most
implemented offshore renewable energy is wind. Globally, in tandem to support offshore wind, there is
requirement for significant investment in and expansion of electricity grid. Coastal and marine
biomass is another form of marine renewable energy but will not be discussed here.

All wind resources are renewable, with low marginal costs once in operation and low carbon
emissions, and thus contributing to sustainable development. Offshore wind resources are more
expensive to develop and operate than onshore winds, which has so far restricted geographical
exploitation of offshore wind resources. Cost of offshore wind technology declining, with future
widespread mobilization in China.

Construction of offshore electricity grid infrastructure for offshore wind is important, as well as
stable national and regional economic and environmental regulatory regimes. All these are in
place in Europe, and could readily be put in place in China.

Once these offshore grids are established, they can support and integrate other forms of marine
renewable energy, such as tidal and wave energy generation. Given substantive initial
investment, stable economic and environmental regulatory regimes are also important for
offshore wind regimes.

Where exploited, and supported by electricity grid infrastructure, offshore wind development is
characterized by higher wind speeds, larger turbines, and greater social acceptability than land-
based wind, particularly for northern Europe.

Another advantage of offshore wind development is its proximity to increasing coastal and urban
settlements. As more population in the coast, and larger coastal cities and urban settlements,
access to offshore wind resources and windfarms will be an increasing advantage..The London
Array in the Thames estuary adjacent to London, and offshore windfarms adjacent to
Copenhagen are examples for northern Europe, and parallels examples will soon be present for
China.

Last consideration for wind energy is how it might be used in combination with other renewable
and non-renewable energy sources and energy storage mechanisms to enhance sustainable
development and poverty alleviation, particularly for island, remote or off grid locations. Wind
and other renewable energy sources could also provide a low cost energy source for desalination,
which may be increasingly important in parts of the world, in adapting to climate change.




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Global Wind Resources

To be inserted.

Europe (preliminary draft)

Europe leading globally at the current time with offshore wind, with most projects occurring in
Baltic, Irish and North Seas.
Europe is also leading with the development of the offshore electricity grid to support this wind,
along the necessary legislation and regulatory framework to support wind power and grid
(environmental assessment, marine spatial planning, public and private financing).
The contribution of offshore electricity grid infrastructure is important, due to planning and
social constraints on grid infrastructure inland.
Potential along much of Europe’s coastline and seas for wind farms, including southern Europe
and Mediterranean region.
The southern seas of Europe will also be used to transfer renewable energy from southern
Mediterranean countries or north Africa.
Most of new renewable power in Europe use weather-dependent variable sources such as wind,
wave, tidal and solar. This can only be achieved in the most efficient and cost-effective way if
substantive changes the existing grid to secure system stability.

Grid Declaration has been agreed in November 2011 for the North Sea and Baltic Grid, ensuring
cooperation occurs to enable both grid development and nature conservation.

The preamble to the Declaration states:

       Most of new renewable power installations will use weather-dependent variable sources
       such as wind, wave, tidal and solar. This can only be achieved in the most efficient and
       cost-effective way if substantive changes and additions to the existing grid are undertaken
       to secure system stability. This requires: immediate actions by policymakers;
       preparedness for technical interventions by transmission system operators (TSOs); and
       the support of non-government organisations (NGOs) for the principle of grid expansion
       for renewables integration, and in building public understanding and acceptance thereof.

Examples in Europe of engagement of local communities and people through consultation and
profit sharing.




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Americas (preliminary draft)

Canada
East and West Coast of Canada offer wind development possibilities, as well as example of unique
arrangements characterized by local involvement and engagement.

United States
Great wind potential but difficulties in achieving offshore wind authorizations and social
support.

Two case studies for offshore wind development to be examined in paper and presentation:
   • Great Lakes

    •    State of Hawai’i

Brazil

Examination of wind potential and proposals for offshore wind development to be inserted.


Asia (preliminary draft)

Australia and New Zealand

Recent economic and engineering feasibility studies for offshore wind energy generation in
Australia. Based on selection criteria including wind speed, water depth, environmental impact
and development costs, Western Australia is the most suitable to host an offshore installation.
However, there may not be significant interest in funding such a offshore project in the near
future. There is sufficient opportunity build wind farms on land that may not be desire to go
offshore at this stage.

New Zealand has good wind resources. In some locations, wind flow can continuous and of
relatively high speed, making these areas suited to wind energy development. Its wind resource
has the potential to generate over three times New Zealand’s current annual electricity demand.
New Zealand has terrestrial wind farms either operating or under construction, with a current
installed capacity of 615 megawatts supplying 4% of New Zealand’s annual generation, as of
December 2010. However, it is unlikely that wind potential will be fully implemented in the near
future due to other renewable generation like hydro electricity.

China

Power demand growth and China’s aim to diversify its electricity portfolio are the two main
drivers for offshore wind development. In 2009, China got 16% of its power. Another 1% came
from wind and other renewable energy and 2% came from nuclear. This reliance on coal has
caused domestic problems including environmental degradation and mining accidents. As power
demand grows, China will continue to exploit hydropower resources while trying to increase the
proportion of power coming from nuclear and other renewable energy.


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The Chinese government has pursued the dual purpose of building a wind manufacturing
industry along with the wind generation assets, thereby capturing the added value that a complete
supply chain can bring. To achieve these associated goals, the government has implemented
supply- and demand-side policies. Demand-side supports have included wind installation targets,
and political directives for state-owned banks and utilities to support wind energy. Supply-side
supports included research and development grants and incentives to large state-owned
manufacturing companies to encourage them to diversify into the wind sector.

A local content requirement was implemented for wind turbines, effectively forcing foreign
companies to set up manufacturing in China and to bringing many of their component suppliers
with them. Some of these took the form of joint ventures, which brought further advantages in
technology transfer. The price difference for Chinese turbines, coupled with implicit government
encouragement to buy domestic, has caused market share of domestic manufacturers to expand.
Globally, four of the top fifteen wind turbine manufacturers are Chinese (in terms of estimated
2010 production). The government has been encouraging larger (>2MW) turbines and offshore
turbines. In addition to encouraging corporate research and development, and requiring newly
tendered projects to use larger turbines, policy moves has also been designed.

Discussion of wind potential and proposed offshore wind development.

India

Examination of wind potential and proposals for offshore wind development to be inserted.

Western Asia and North Africa

Examination of wind potential and proposals for offshore wind development to be inserted.

Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Economies (preliminary draft)

Examination of wind potential and proposals for offshore wind development to be inserted.




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3. Ocean Energy and Related Electricity Grid Infrastructure (preliminary draft)

The oceans represent a vast and largely untapped source of energy in the form of surface waves,
fluid flow, salinity gradients, and thermal.

    •   Marine current power is the energy obtained from ocean currents.
    •   Osmotic power is the energy from salinity gradients.
    •   Ocean thermal energy is the power from temperature differences at varying depths.
    •   Tidal power is the energy from moving masses of water. Tidal power generation
        comprises three main forms, namely: tidal stream power, tidal barrage power, and
        dynamic tidal power.
    •   Wave power is the power from surface waves

Europe

!"#$%&#'%(&)(*)(+,#&),&,-./)0(',&'%#1)#&2)0-(0(3#13)*(-)(+,#&),&,-./)2,4,1(0$,&')'()5,)
%&3,-',26)

Case studies of UK and Portugal for current, wave, and tidal.

Americas

Examination of wind potential and proposals for ocean energy development to be inserted.

Case studies

    •   Nova Scotia Bay of Fundy, Canada (tidal)

    •   State of Hawai’I, United States (ocean thermal energy)

    •   Cuba (current)

Asia

Australia and New Zealand

Examination of ocean energy potential and proposals for ocean energy development to be
inserted

Ocean energy – wave, tide and ocean thermal energy sources - is an underdeveloped but
substantial renewable energy source for Australia. Australia has wave energy resources along its
western and southern coastline, especially in Tasmania. Australia’s best tidal energy resources
are located along the northern margin, especially the northwest coast of Western Australia.
Tasmania Areas in the Pacific Ocean are prospective for ocean thermal energy. Many of
Australia’s best tidal and wave energy resources are distant from the electricity grid. The
proximity of the resource to major population centres and the electricity grid is better for wave
energy than tidal or ocean thermal energy.

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China

Examination of ocean energy potential and proposals for ocean energy development to be
inserted

India

Examination of ocean energy potential and proposals for ocean energy development to be
inserted.

Western Asia and North Africa

Examination of ocean energy potential and proposals for ocean energy development to be
inserted.

Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Economies

Examination of ocean energy potential and proposals for ocean energy development to be
inserted.



4. Sustainable Cities and Regions and Role of Offshore Wind and Ocean Energy
(preliminary draft)



Case studies of

    •   Water and Energy Nexus: Renewable Energy and Desalination

    •   London and Copenhagen and offshore wind farms.

    •   Galapagos Islands and sustainable energy development in a fragile environment.




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