p g
Expected effects of climate change on
forage production and quality
(Norway, Sweden, Finland
(Norway Sweden Finland, Iceland)
M Höglind
Mats Hö li d
Bioforsk Vest Særheim
Nordic Forage Network
Lillehammer 20-21 April 2009
Outline
• Major constraints to forage production in the Nordic area
• How will the climate change?
• Cocesequences for overwintering
• Consequences for the growing season
• Future yields and forage quality
• Uncertainties, need of research
Major constraints
• Difficult overwintering conditions
season
• Short growing season, low temperatures
• Suitable soils/suitable topography
… but also some advantages!
• Relatively good water availability
• Forage quality
Many different global scenarios
Expected changes – regional scale
Winter temperature Summer temperature
(2071- (1961-
(2071-2100) – (1961-1990) (2071-2100) – (1961-1990)
(2071- (1961-
+ 1-5 °C + 1-4 °C PRUDENCE
Expected changes – regional scale
Winter rainfall (% change) Summer rainfall (% change)
(2071-2100) (1961-1990)
(2071 2100) – (1961 1990) (2071 2100) – (1961 1990)
(2071-2100) (1961-1990)
(-10) – (+30) % (-10) – (+10) % PRUDENCE
Increased variability
Precipitation Temperature
Winter
Summer
PRUDENCE
Regional i
R i l scenarios
”warmer, wetter, wilder”
Local scenarios available for Norway:
• Control 1961-1990
• SRES B2 2071-2100 (B2; optimistisk klimagassutslippscenario)
• SRES A2 2071-2100 (A2: pessimistisk/realistisk? klimagassutslippscenario)
• Is92a 1980-2049 (eldre utslippsscenario med mindre temperaturøkning)
Scenario Experiment Climate Variable Time resolution Period
models
View B2 HADAm3 Temperature, Precipitation (C, mm) Daily 2071-2100
View A2 HADAm3 Temperature, Precipitation (C, mm) Daily 2071-2100
View CONTROL HADAm3 Temperature, Precipitation (C, mm) Daily 1961-1990
View is92a GSDIO ECHAM4/OPYC3 Temperature, Precipitation (C, mm) Daily 1980-2049
SRES = Special Report of Emission Scenarios (IPCC)
http://noserc.met.no/effect/
Down-loadable
Down loadable
local scenarios
Station search for Norway y
Click on any county to get a county map with stations.
View all stations
DNMI
Updated October 19. 2006 Send comments to webmaster
Printerfriendly version
Temperature
,
Sola, SW coast
20,0
15,0
tur, C
Normal 1961‐1990
10,0
Temperat
B2 2071‐2100
5,0 A2 2071‐2100
0,0
Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dec
5,0
‐5,0
3-4 °C warmer in autumn, 2-3 °C other parts of year
Average > 15 C i september!
A in t b !
Temperature
Værnes, central coast
20,0
15,0
ur, C
Normal 1961‐1990
10,0
10 0
Temperatu
B2 2071‐2100
5,0 A2 2071‐2100
0,0
Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt NovDec
‐5,0
Temperature
Løken, S inland, 525 masl.
20,0
15,0
urr, C
10,0 Normal 1961‐1990
Temperatu
5,0 B2 2071‐2100
A2 2071‐2100
0,0
T
Jan FebMarApr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep OktNovDec
‐5,0
10 0
‐10,0
Precipitation Sola
S l
250
200
Nedbør, mm
150 Normal 1961‐1990
B2 2071‐2100
Absolute values
100
A2 2071‐2100 mm/month
50
0
Jan FebMar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep OktNovDec
Change
/ th
mm/month
Precipitation Værnes
140
120
100
Nedbør, mm
m
80 Normal 1961‐1990
60 B2 2071‐2100 Absolute values
40 A2 2071‐2100 mm/month
20
0
Jan FebMar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep OktNovDec
Værnes
40 Change
30
/ th
mm/month
Nedbør, mm
20
Diff B2‐Normal
10
Diff A2 ‐ Normal
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dec
‐10
‐20
Precipitation Løken
90
80
70
m
Nedbør, mm
60
Normal 1961‐1990
50
40 B2 2071‐2100 Absolute values
30 A2 2071‐2100 mm/month
20
10
0
Jan FebMar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt NovDec
Løken
30 Change
20 / th
mm/month
Nedbør, mm
10
Diff B2‐Normal
0
Diff A2 ‐ Normal
Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dec
‐10
‐20
‐30
Iceland
Risk of winter injuries in Norwegian
grasslands: evaluation using a climate
index
i d approach h
• Input: scenarios for daily temperature and precipitation
calc late ith own (SnowFrostIce,
• We calculate, with o n model (Sno FrostIce Thorsen et al)
Daily soil surface temperature
Snow depth
Surface ice
S f
• Indices for risk of winter injuries (Thorsen et al, in prep):
Risk for frost injuries: autumn, winter, spring
Risk for ice encasemet injuries
No. of days with freezing/melting
• Aditional calculations
Growing season: start, end, temperature sum
Definitions
• Growth start = first 5 day spell with ground level temperature 5 C
5-day-spell
• Growth end = first 5-day-spell with ground level temperature 0 0 29 2 54 4
1 dm, days
Frost risk* in 4 0,9 16,6 5,2 5,7 3,7
autumn, days
, y
Frost risk** in 1,2 0,2 3,6 2,3 2,1 1,1
winter, days
Frost risk* in 0,7 1,9 0,1 0,9 0 0,3
spring, days
*Days wth ground level min. temp. 96 33 158 123 166 39
1 dm, days
Frost risk in 5,6 4,4 7,2 6,9 1,8 3,3
autumn, days
Frost risk in 0,8 1,1 0,3 0,3 0 1,0
winter, days
Frost risk in 0,1 0,1 0 0 0 0
spring, days
*Days wth ground level min. temp.
7 days 2)
1) Days in winter when soil surface temperature changes from 0 C to –1 or opposite
2) Assumption: horisontal field, or parts of field with poor surface run-off. Normally only parts of
the field will be ice covered. Perennial ryegrass typically tolerate 1-2 weeks of ice encasement
Freezing/melting and ice encasement risk
Blindern Løken Tromsø
Oslo Valdres Troms
Control A2 Control A2 Control A2
1961-1990 2071-2100 1961-1990 2071-2100 1961-1990 2071-2100
Days per 14,7 13,1 11,6 11,5 18,5 16,7
i t ith
winter with
freezing/
melting 1)
Potential 2,7
27 22
2,2 27
2,7 2,1
21 18
1,8 14
1,4
periods with
surface ice >
7 days 2)
1) Days in winter when soil surface temperature changes from 0 C to –1 or opposite
2) Assumption: horisontal field, or parts of field with poor surface run-off. Normally only parts of
the field will be ice covered. Perennial ryegrass typically tolerate 1-2 weeks of ice encasement
Summary risk of winter injury Norway
• Reduced risk for frost injuries during autumn/winter on most of the
6 Norwegian locations
• Reduced risk for frost injuries after growth start in spring, except on
3 coastal locations
• Reduced risk of ice encasement injury on all 6 locations
There will still be large variation between years –
HaCtrl
TempHend15 Sola
Examples SW Norway
HaA2
10
HaB2
MPI
5
0
-4 -2 0 2 4 6
Estimated LT50 Cv Grindstad
10
5
Frost tolerance LT50 in
timothy in mid-winter, C
0
-24 -22 -20 -18 -16 -14
LT50PeriodsTim Sola
20 Days in winter with
Sola 10 risk for frost injury
0
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 in timothy
IceDays7 Sola
20
10
Potential periods with
0
Ice encasement > 7 days
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
TCDGrowth Sola
20
10
0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Growing season, start, end and climate
Sola Værnes Bodø
Rogaland Nord-Trønderlag Nordland
Control A2 Control A2 Control A2
1961- 2071-2100 1961- 2071-2100 1961- 2071-2100
1990 1990 1990
Start growing 24 mar
24.mar 31 jan
31.jan 22.apr
22 apr 22.mar
22 mar 4 mai
4.mai 31.mar
31 mar
season
End growing 13.nov 11.des 21.okt 21.nov 18.okt 10.nov
season
No. of days 234 315 182 244 167 226
gr. season
Temp.sum C
Temp sumC 2368 3498 1956 2830 1606 2400
gr. season
Grwing season, start, end and climate
Løken Blindern Tromsø
Valdres Oslo Troms
Control A2 Control A2 Control A2
1961- 2071-2100 1961- 2071-2100 1961- 2071-2100
1990 1990 1990
Start growing 12 mai
12.mai 29 apr
29.apr 22.apr
22 apr 2.apr
2 apr 26 mai
26.mai 22 apr
22.apr
season
End growing 30.sep 25.okt 20.okt 20.nov 26.sep 29.okt
season
No. of days 141 179 181 232 123 190
gr. season
Temp sumC
Temp.sum C 1437 2234 2275 3240 1130 1976
gr. season
Summary growing season Norway
• 1 to 3 months longer growing season
• 800 to 1100 degree-days increased temperature sum
degree days
• This gives room for at least one additional grass cut
Growing season
Sola
20,0
ur, C
15,0
Temperatu
10,0
50
5,0 Normal 96
Normal 1961‐
T
1990
0,0 A2 2071‐2100
p g p
Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dec
Length of Vegetation period, T > 5oC
2085
1961-90
~2085A2
Sweden
Efter Fogelfors m fl 2008
1961-90
Vegetationsperiod
Västerbotten
Odlingssäsonger - söder till norr
Jan Feb Mars Apr Maj Juni Juli Aug Sept Okt Nov Dec
höstsådd skörd
Vegetationsperiod
1961-90
Mälardalen
Jan Feb Mars Apr Maj Juni Juli Aug Sept Okt Nov Dec
Vegetationsperiod
1961-90
1961 90
Skåne
Jan Feb Mars Apr Maj Juni Juli Aug Sept Okt Nov Dec
Fogelfors, Stendahl 2006
snö vårbruk skörd höstsådd
1961-90
Vegetationsperiod
Vegetationsperiod
2085
~2085A2
Västerbotten
Odlingssäsonger - söder till norr
Jan Feb Mars Apr
Jan Feb Mars Apr Maj Juni Juli
Maj Juni Juli Aug Sept Okt
Aug Sept Okt Nov Dec
Nov Dec
höstsådd skörd
Vegetationsperiod
Vegetationsperiod
1961-90
~2085A2
Mälardalen
Mälardalen
Jan Feb Mars Apr Maj Juni Juli Aug Sept Okt Nov Dec
Vegetationsperiod
Vegetationsperiod
1961
1961-90
~2085A2 90
Skåne
Skåne
Jan Feb
Jan Feb Mars Apr Maj Juni Juli Aug Sept Okt Nov Dec
vårbruk ? skörd ? höstsådd ? Fogelfors, Stendahl 2006
snö vårbruk skörd höstsådd
Iceland –
present and future temperature sum
Will there be more extreme precipitation?
Example A2 Sola SW Norway
tion
,
2,5
er month > 20 mm precipitat
2,0
1,5
Control 1961‐1990
1,0 A2 2071 2100
A2 2071‐2100
0,5
Days pe
0,0
J F M A M J J A S O N
How much larger grass yields in the future?
Unfortunately, few calculations available
• Iceland: no yield simulations has been carried out yet
• Finland: no yield simulations has been carried out yet (?)
• Sweden: a few preliminary calculations available
• Norway: a few preliminary calculations
Simulations with LINGRA timothy model for
Løken, Valdres mountain region S Norway
Growing Date of harvest DM yield, tonnes/ha
season
1 t cut
1st t 2nd t
2 d cut 3rd t
3 d cut 1+2 t
1 2 cut 3rd t
3 d cut Total
T t l
Control 17/5- 27/6 12/8 - 10 100 - 10 100
1960
1960- 7/10
1990
A2 1/5-2/11 11/6 19/7 27/8 9 800 4 300 14 300
2071-
2100
Soil type: silty sand without irrigation. Normal fertilization. Criteria: 1st cut at
y g g
early silage stage, thereafter 600 degree days between to ensure high feed quality.
g y g q y
Last cut minimum 1 month before end of growing season to ensure hardening
Precipitation was not growth limiting on an average year on this soil type, but
may be so in single years
To reduce uncertainty in the calculations, down-scaled scenarios for air
humidity, wind speed and radiation would be needed
Sweden, Klimat och sårbarhetsutredningen
• Simulations for 5 sites in South and Central Sweden, fertilized grass
• 2-cut system, fixed cutting dates (same cuting dates in control period and
scenario period, i.e. the grass in the scenario period will be more mature at
1st cut compared with the normal period due to earlier growth start)
1st cut 2nd cut
1985
2085
• Results: 27-66% yield increase in total for two cuts
(Eckersten et al 2007)
What do we know about the grass
quality in the future?
Forage maize will, of course, be grown
further and further north
Summary
• There will be more grass growth!
•H l t i t b t how variable th
However, large uncertainty about h i bl the
climate will be in the future and how extreme
get,
events we will get leads to large uncetainties with
respect to overwintering, summer growth and
g
conditions for harvest and grazingg
Thank you for your attention!
Faglige utfordringer, hva må vi vite mer om?
Hvordan vil klimaet endres, spesielt på lokal nivå? Hvor variabelt vil været bli?
Hvordan vil innstråling, vind og luftfuktighet endres på lokal nivå, døgnbasis?
Trenger informasjonen for sikrere beregninger av plantevekst mm.
Utrede avling og avlingssikkerhet i forkjellige scenarier for forskjellige vekster.
g g g j g j g
Her kan en begynne med enklere beregninger for så å gå videre med mer
avansert modellering. Supplerende forsøk der det trengs.
Lage scenarioer ikke bare for klima men også for andre faktorer som vil
påvirke valg av vekster og produksjonssystemer.
Vurdere forskjellige tilpasninger til det endrede klimaet