WAPA PRESS RELEASE
BRUSSELS, 10TH AUGUST 2009
WAPA RELEASES APPLE AND PEAR CROP FORECASTS
More than 200 representatives of the international apple and pear sector met in Maastricht (The Netherlands) from 6-8th August 2009 on the occasion of the 33nd Prognosfruit Conference. The conference was hosted by the Dutch Produce Association (DPA) and the Dutch Fruit Growers Organisation (NFO). On this occasion, WAPA (World Apple and Pear Association) released the 2009 European apple and pear crop estimates. The apple production is 7% down on last year’s crop resulting mainly from a much lower crop in Poland. The pear production for 2009 recovered from last year’s historic low and is forecasted to be up by 16% in the EU. More specifically for apples, the 2009 European crop forecast is announced at 10.753.000 MT, a decrease of 7% compared to the previous year and 4% above the average of the last three years. By geographic area, the production in Western Europe will decrease by 1% while the production in Eastern Europe will be down by 16%. In regard to varieties, Golden Delicious remains the largest variety, representing 22% of total production, however the 2009 Golden production will be down 4% at 2.407.000 MT. Gala, representing today nearly 10% of the apple output will have a stable production at 1.037.000 MT. Jonagold represents 6% of the current crop and is reported to have decreased production by 14% to 688.000 MT. Red Delicious also represents approximately 6% of the EU crop with 662.000 MT expected to be harvested. Elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere crops are also expected to decrease compared to last year, namely in China (-10%) and most possibly also in the USA (5%), subject to confirmation at the forthcoming Outlook conference on 21 August. In other countries production increased, as for example in Russia (7%), Ukraine (6%) and Switzerland (9%); whereas the Turkish apple production is stable. Regarding pears, European growers are predicting an increase of 16% compared to 2008. Total estimated production would rise to 2.521.000 MT compared to the 2008 production of 2.178.000 MT. The 2009 forecasted crop is also up by 2% compared to the average crop of the last three years. In 2009, the Conference variety production is foreseen to increase by 36% to 856.000 MT. Conference remains the largest variety representing close to 34% of the pear production in Europe. William BC (almost 12% of the pear production) will be down by 3% to 296.000M T and Abate Fetel (11% of the production) is expected to increase by 12% to 277.000 MT. Elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere crops have also increased compared to last year, namely in the USA (8%) and in Turkey (2%). Nevertheless, production are forecasted to decrease in China (-25%) and in the Ukraine (-5%).
WORLD APPLE AND PEAR ASSOCIATION
av. de Broqueville 272 bte 4 ∙ 1200 Brussels ∙ Belgium ∙ Tel : +32 2 777 15 80 ∙ Fax : +32 2 777 15 81 ∙ e-mail : wapa@wapa-association.org www.wapa-association.org
On the occasion of Prognosfruit, WAPA also updated its Southern Hemisphere crop forecasts for apples and pears released in February 2009. The Southern Hemisphere crop is now confirmed for 2009 at 5.280.000 MT for apples, meaning 4% more than last year. Regarding pears the crop is confirmed at 1.551.000 MT, increasing by 11% compared to last year. During Prognosfruit and with a view to the forthcoming season, Alessandro Dalpiaz, President of WAPA, identified a different outlook for the apple and pear market. "The likely carry-over of last season’s apple stocks in various countries might create difficult market conditions at the beginning of the season. Nevertheless the lower crop forecast, especially in Poland, may lead to a recovery of the market towards the end of the year. A prompt finalisation of the Southern Hemisphere season which so far shipped fewer apples to the EU will also be an important factor for the EU apple market stability. Given current strong prices and the absence of carry-over stocks, next pear season looks at a much better start despite the largest crop in years". Mr Dalpiaz added: "For both apples and pears, developments in Russia, the EU’s most important export market outlet, will be crucial for the success of the coming campaign". At the end of the conference Hans Van Es, Director of DPA, revealed the result of a survey among participants with regard to important issues in short term: "Developments regarding pesticide residues and customer requirements came out as the clear main concerns of European apple and pears growers" stated Mr Van Es. He added "Promotion efforts were identified as another key point in order to further promote apple and pear consumption. This gives clear indications of priorities for action within the sector".
N.B: Tables representing the EU Apple and Pear production by country and by variety are to be found enclosed as well as the consolidated figures regarding other countries and the Southern Hemisphere suppliers.
**ENDS**
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------CONTACT: Philippe BINARD/Frédéric ROSSENEU – WAPA WAPA was founded in August 2001 with the objectives of providing a forum for discussion on matters of interest for the apple and pear business and initiating recommendations to strengthen the sector. The current President of the Association is Alessandro Dalpiaz of Assomela, Italy, while Kevin Moffitt of USA Pears, USA is VicePresident. WAPA membership includes the following countries: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Chile, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Poland, South Africa, the UK and the USA.
WORLD APPLE AND PEAR ASSOCIATION
av. de Broqueville 272 bte 4 ∙ 1200 Brussels ∙ Belgium ∙ Tel : +32 2 777 15 80 ∙ Fax : +32 2 777 15 81 ∙ e-mail : wapa@wapa-association.org www.wapa-association.org
EU 27
Apple Production by country
x 1000 tons
Country
Austria Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark France Germany Greece Hungary Italy Latvia Lithuania Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom
2000
163 498 92 196 32 2.260 1.131 288 695 2.127 35 102 500 2.000 227 490 27 60 685 24 196
2001 2002
156 336 78 140 31 1.938 923 196 605 2.180 36 155 475 2.484 265 507 27 38 806 22 212 161 348 73 163 25 1.965 766 244 527 2.174 50 82 370 2.168 300 492 27 41 646 20 123
2003
153 320 58 154 25 1.728 818 166 500 2.144 36 97 405 2.428 287 811 34 62 704 19 157
2004
164 356 58 164 26 1.709 946 282 679 2.032 7 34 435 2.522 277 1.098 31 62 553 20 164
2005 2006
176 317 71 138 26 1.770 925 265 467 2.085 38 130 380 2.200 252 439 36 58 701 21 193 162 358 65 160 27 1.585 948 267 480 1.991 32 100 348 2.250 257 417 31 50 547 20 174
2007
193 358 60 113 32 1.676 1.070 236 203 2.196 31 40 396 1.100 258 287 10 61 599 16 196
2008 F2009
169 336 56 157 26 1.528 1.047 231 583 2.164 34 74 376 3.200 245 459 42 60 528 18 201 185 311 56 141 24 1.601 1.042 220 514 2.115 25 60 392 2.600 245 435 48 60 448 18 214
(1)
9 -7 0 -10 -8 5 0 -5 -12 -2 -26 -19 4 -19 0 -5 14 0 -15 0 6
(2)
6 -11 -7 -2 -15 0 2 -10 22 0 -23 -16 5 19 -3 12 73 5 -20 0 12
Total:
11.828 11.611 10.764 11.106 11.618 10.687 10.269
9.132 11.533 10.753
-7
4
(1) Percentage difference between F2009 and 2008 (2) Percentage difference between F2009 and the average of 2006 - 2007 - 2008
EU Apple Production
12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0
F2009
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
EU 27
Apple Production by variety
x 1000 tons
Variety
2000
2001 2002
83 142 211 99 180 168 45 449 71 779 221 2.786 347 834 805 150 408 200 137 75 88 247 60 150 88 55 391 82 813 101 2.739 353 562 779 135 280 220 128
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 F2009
57 91 238 64 200 128 50 395 78 765 167 2.537 307 825 742 156 42 220 67 6 55 110 290 90 180 116 54 487 94 945 138 2.529 309 784 782 177 43 200 126 10 737 68 103 296 83 100 145 65 427 130 1.052 100 2.561 315 693 650 190 31 150 123 15 660 56 108 279 83 155 117 66 431 133 1.015 126 2.339 308 622 632 210 35 210 119 17 631 51 100 318 85 75 108 129 487 188 1.024 91 2.450 305 282 652 234 51 100 88 20 600 45 100 297 95 136 103 128 469 206 1.049 162 2.508 310 801 803 203 257 203 91 30 743 21 45 88 322 88 80 103 140 478 225 1.037 113 2.407 311 769 688 190 213 100 92 34 662 20 90 331 9 17 107 1.995
(1) (2)
0 -12 8 -7 -41 0 10 2 9 -1 -30 -4 0 -4 -14 -6 -17 -51 1 13 -11 -4 4 -16 -14 -9 31 -8 -14 183 5 1 13 -11 -15 8 0 -34 -5 30 3 28 1 -11 -1 1 35 -1 -12 86 -42 -8 53 0
87 Annurca 197 Boskoop 209 Braeburn 95 Bramley 150 Cortland 149 Cox Orange 26 Cripps Pink 442 Elstar 70 Fuji 660 Gala 177 Gloster 2.857 Golden Delicious 427 Granny Smith 640 Idared 1.008 Jonagold 169 Jonagored 433 Jonathan 130 Lobo 160 Morgendurf/imperatore Pinova 899 Red Delicious Red Prince Reinette Grise du Canada 101 9 Shampion 101 Spartan 34 Stayman Other new varieties (³) 2.598 Other
783
712
582
93 9 1 34
97 11 1 30
78 23
83 242
92 277
78 307
103 172 12
86 395 11 18 82 2.180
17
21
23 16
21 15 2.157
19 17 1.371
2.576
2.568
3.271
3.016
2.324
Total:
11.828 11.611 10.764 11.106 11.618 10.687 10.269 9.132 11.533 10.753 -7
4
(1) Percentage difference between F2009 and 2008 (2) Percentage difference between F2009 and the average of 2006 - 2007 - 2008 (3) Other new varieties: Ariane, Belgica, Cameo, Diwa, Greenstar, Honey Crunch, Jazz, Junami, Kanzi, Mariac, Rubens, Tentation, Wellant,...
Top 1 variety - Golden Delicious Production 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2006 2007 2008 F2009
Top 4 varieties of Apple Production after Golden Delicious
1500
2006
1000 500 0 Gala Jonagold Red Delicious
2007 2008 F2 0 0 9
Extra EU
Apple Production by country
x 1000 tons
Country
Albania Belarus
2000
12 585
2001
16 590 14 465 20.025 9 38 187 1.640 67 123 2.451 475
2002
16 500 15 382 19.253 22 63 224 1.950 38 147 2.356 522 3.866
2003 2004
13 431 41 379 21.108 27 62 494 1.690 107 100 2.577 871 3.989 15 335 53 370 23.685 38 82 310 2.030 102 102 2.100 717 4.736
2005
16 350 52 409 24.020 41 86 278 1.773 108 101 2.550 720 4.392
2006 2007
28 400 58 340 26.066 48 96 203 2.000 108 99 2.600 537 4.505 36 300 61 405 27.866 40 152 218 2.000 119 155 2.400 755 4.211
2008
F2009 (1)
(2)
240
250
4
-20
Bosnia-Herzegovina 14 Canada China Croatia Macedonia Moldova Russia Serbia Switzerland Turkey Ukraine USA
543 20.439 30 84 162 1.832 93 168 2.400 648
28.500 50
25.650 45
-10 -10
-7 -2
300 1.870 107 136 2.457 719 4.157
400 2.000 117 148 2.457 760 3.941
33 7 9 9 0 6 -5
66 2 5 14 -1 13 -8
(1) Percentage difference between F2009 and 2008 (2) Percentage difference between F2009 and the average of 2006 - 2007 - 2008
EU 27
Pear Production by country
x 1000 tons
Country
Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark France Germany Greece Hungary Italy Latvia Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Spain Sweden United Kingdom
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
174 19 2 6 259 65 55 40 877 1 195 82 142 71 0 597 2 34 6 255 47 46 27 794 2 70 77 142 72 0 661 1 34 87 14 167 11 1 5 236 56 39 27 947 2 180 90 125 68 0 602 2 35 4 190 49 30 33 819 1 170 77 90 104 0 641 2 35 172 6 231 4 2 5 248 61 54 31 838 1 225 87 188 46 0 521 2 34 229 4 2 5 230 53 56 40 882 2 200 65 130 30 0 608 2 27 268 4 2 6 246 57 45 39 966 2 234 55 175 24 1 535 2 27 287 3 3 6 221 56 51 12 922 1 255 31 142 21 1 494 2 29
2008 F2009
170 3 3 5 157 38 51 40 759 1 172 40 188 53 1 475 1 23 281 3 5 7 193 42 57 40 817 1 311 85 184 35 1 427 2 31
(1) (2)
65 -6 81 40 23 11 12 1 8 20 81 113 -2 -33 30 -10 300 35 16 -12 87 27 -7 -17 17 33 -7 -10 41 102 9 9 10 -15 55 17
Total:
2.621 2.334 2.593 2.423 2.578 2.565 2.687
2.537
2.178
2.521
16
2
(1) Percentage difference between F2009 and 2008 (2) Percentage difference between F2009 and the average of 2006 - 2007 - 2008
EU Pear Production
3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0
F2009
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
EU 27
Pear Production by variety
x 1000 tons
Variety
Abate F Blanquilla Conference Coscia-Ercollini Doyenne du Comice Durondeau Guyot Kaiser Passacrassana Rocha William BC Other
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
242 221 613 111 131 11 106 51 28 136 328 643 225 240 520 100 68 3 119 50 26 136 316 531 281 196 677 103 162 11 117 59 43 120 330 494 251 200 723 96 97 6 99 63 33 86 286 483 261 157 769 95 129 10 106 50 37 180 314 471 283 171 798 111 105 7 115 61 35 125 321 433 328 139 826 103 135 9 109 61 29 168 350 430 324 132 822 110 126 7 105 59 25 136 320 371
2008 F2009 (1) (2)
248 88 631 107 82 6 98 39 21 184 307 367 277 98 856 104 114 7 103 55 21 180 296 410 12 11 36 -3 39 20 5 43 2 -2 -3 12 -8 -18 13 -3 0 -1 -1 5 -15 10 -9 5
Total:
2.621 2.334 2.593 2.423 2.578 2.565 2.687 2.537
2.178
2.521
16
2
(1) Percentage difference between F2009 and 2008 (2) Percentage difference between F2009 and the average of 2006 - 2007 - 2008
Top 1 variety - Conference
1000 800 600 400 200 0 2006 2007 2008 F2009
Top 3 varieties of Pear Production after Conference
400 300 200 100 0 William BC Abate F Rocha 2006 2007 2008 F2009
Extra EU
Pear Production by country
x 1000 tons
Country
Albania Belarus Bosnia-Herzegovina Canada China Croatia Macedonia Moldova Russia Serbia Switzerland Turkey Ukraine USA
2000
3 58 9 18 8.526 10 9 9 88 25
2001
3 59 8 14 8.897 7 7 7 45 13
2002
4 90 8 15 9.432 8 8 11 90 9
2003
4 43 16 15 9.921 8 6 6 72 23
2004
4 33 20 14 10.767 8 7 4 95 18 27
2005
4 32 23 11 11.437 6 9 6 74 25 25 377 177 404
2006 2007 2008 F2009 (1) (2)
5 61 23 14 12.113 9 9 3 67 24 24 379 81 397 5 44 21 13 13.045 10 8 4 96 30 27 380 140 450 33 15 361 126 419 36 29 368 120 453 9 92 2 -5 8 24 30 -1 -4 7 13.305 10.000 -25 -22
379 156 466
360 102 449
358 131 436
379 150 436
373 152 419
(1) Percentage difference between F2009 and 2008 (2) Percentage difference between F2009 and the average of 2006 - 2007 – 2008
79
Southern Hemisphere Crop Forecast 2009