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120811 SWING PRES + BP

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					Peter A. Brown, Assistant Director,
Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
(203) 582-5201
Rubenstein Associates, Inc.,
Public Relations
Pat Smith (212) 843-8026


FOR RELEASE: DECEMBER 8, 2011
PLEASE NOTE: EMBARGOED FOR WIRE RELEASE UNTIL 6:00 AM DECEMBER 8
GINGRICH HAS BIG GOP LEAD IN FLORIDA, OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA,
     QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY SWING STATE POLL FINDS;
   ROMNEY RUNS ONLY SLIGHTLY BETTER AGAINST OBAMA
                                               ---
FLORIDA: Romney 45 – Obama 42; Obama 46 – Gingrich 44
OHIO: Romney 43 – Obama 42; Gingrich 43 – Obama 42
PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 46 – Romney 43; Obama 48 – Gingrich 40
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich holds double-digit leads over the Republican primary
field and cuts sharply into President Barack Obama’s general election lead should he win the
GOP nomination, according to today’s Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll of Florida, Ohio
and Pennsylvania.
       In head-to-head matchups, Republican voters choose Gingrich over former Massachusetts
Gov. Mitt Romney by margins of 18-27 percentage points.
       Matching President Obama against either Gingrich or Romney in each of these key states
– no one has won the White House since 1960 without carrying at least two of them – the
independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds:
      Florida: Romney with 45 percent to Obama’s 42 percent;
                Obama at 46 percent to Gingrich’s 44 percent.
      Ohio: Romney at 43 percent to Obama’s 42 percent;
             Gingrich with 43 percent to Obama’s 42 percent.
      Pennsylvania: Obama edging Romney 46 – 43 percent;
                     Obama tops Gingrich 48 – 40 percent.
       “Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is no longer just the flavor of the month since his
boomlet has now stretched from November into December and voting begins in Iowa in less than
four weeks,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling
Institute. “The suspension of Herman Cain’s campaign is unlikely to hurt Gingrich and might
help him visa-vie Romney by reducing the number of candidates courting Tea Party voters.”
                                                -more-
Quinnipiac University Poll/December 8, 2011 – page 2
       “Gingrich certainly has the momentum on his side and is peaking at the right moment,
but Romney has the edge in money and organization, which can be important especially if the
primary race turns out to be a long, drawn-out affair,” said Brown.
       “It is worth remembering also that four years ago at this time, former New York City
Mayor Rudolph Giuliani was the Republican leader.
       “Gingrich’s surge in the GOP race is accompanied by a better showing among
independent voters in a general election race against President Obama, although he still has a
ways to go. The president still leads Gingrich in Pennsylvania, but Ohio and Florida are too
close to call. And Romney runs only slightly better against Obama, diluting his claim that he has
the best chance to win.
       “The media says the White House wants to run against Gingrich because he will be easier
to beat than Romney, but the data is less clear today than it was last month on that point. When
it comes to the November 2012 electorate, Romney has a much better favorable/unfavorable
ratio with the overall electorate, although Gingrich’s is improving in Florida and Ohio.”
                                             Florida
       Gingrich is top dog in the Republican pack in Florida, with 35 percent, followed by
Romney with 22 percent and no other candidate above 8 percent.
       Gingrich tops Romney in a head-to-head matchup 52 – 34 percent.
       All Florida voters give Gingrich a negative 34 – 38 percent favorability rating, compared
to Romney’s positive 39 – 28 percent and Obama’s split 47 – 48 percent.
       Florida voters disapprove of the job Obama is doing 54 – 41 percent and say 51 – 44
percent he does not deserve reelection.
       The economy is the most important issue for 53 percent of Florida Republicans, who split
31 – 29 percent on whether Gingrich or Romney would do the best job among GOP contenders
on the economy. All voters say 49 – 41 percent that Romney would do a better job on the
economy than Obama. Gingrich gets 47 percent on this measure to Obama’s 44 percent.
       Comparing Gingrich and Romney on other issues, Florida Republicans say:
      58 – 15 percent that Gingrich would do a better job on foreign policy;
      55 – 22 percent that Gingrich has the knowledge and experience to be a good president;
      35 – 13 percent that Romney has strong moral character;
      42 – 28 percent that Gingrich is a strong leader.
                                             -more-




                                                                                                    2
Quinnipiac University Poll/December 8, 2011 – page 3
       “The Gingrich lead in the primary over Romney is smallest in the Sunshine State, and the
data does not take into account a key factor: Money might be more important here than in any of
the early primary states. That’s because of the large number of expensive media markets where
television ads cost a pretty penny. Romney’s large lead over the field when it comes to cash
reserves could be very important in deciding the outcome in Florida,” said Brown.
                                            Ohio
       Gingrich leads the Republican primary field in Ohio with 36 percent, 2-1 over Romney’s
18 percent. No other candidate tops 7 percent.
       Gingrich buries Romney in a head-to-head matchup 55 – 28 percent.
       Gingrich gets a negative 32 – 38 percent favorability rating from all Ohio voters,
compared to Romney’s positive 32 – 28 percent and Obama’s negative 42 – 52 percent.
       Ohio voters disapprove of the job Obama is doing 55 – 41 percent and say 53 – 42
percent he does not deserve reelection.
       Among 50 percent of Ohio Republicans, the economy is the most important issue.
Republicans say 31 – 24 percent that Gingrich rather than Romney would do the best job among
GOP contenders on the economy. All voters say 47 – 39 percent that Romney would do a better
job on the economy than Obama. Gingrich tops Obama 48 – 41 percent on the economy.
       Comparing Gingrich and Romney on other issues, Ohio Republicans say:
      51 – 11 percent that Gingrich would do a better job on foreign policy;
      54 – 20 percent that Gingrich has the knowledge and experience to be a good president;
      30 – 13 percent that Romney has strong moral character;
      44 – 20 percent that Gingrich is a strong leader.
       “The White House is very concerned about the Buckeye State because of the large
numbers of whites without college educations – a group among which Obama has been doing
poorly,” said Brown.
       “The White House has been dispatching Vice President Joseph Biden to help with such
voters. But Biden’s favorable/unfavorable rating in Ohio is a negative 34 – 40 percent. The
GOP, however, has some fence-mending to do in the state because of the strongly negative
image the party picked up in a bitter fight over the state budget and union rights.”
                                          Pennsylvania
       Gingrich is number one in Pennsylvania’s Republican primary pack with 31 percent,
eclipsing Romney’s 17 percent. Native son Rick Santorum has 9 percent and no other candidate
tops 7 percent.
                                              -more-



                                                                                                  3
Quinnipiac University Poll/December 8, 2011 – page 4
        In a two-man faceoff, Gingrich thumps Romney 50 – 31 percent.
        Gingrich gets a negative 30 – 44 percent favorability rating from all Pennsylvania voters,
compared to Romney’s positive 34 – 30 percent and Obama’s 46 – 47 percent split.
        Biden, a Scranton native with deep blue collar roots, has a 43 – 39 percent favorability.
        Pennsylvania voters disapprove 52 – 43 percent of the job Obama is doing and split
47 – 49 percent on whether he deserves reelection.
        For 43 percent of Pennsylvania Republicans, the economy is the most important issue.
Republicans say 30 – 22 percent that Gingrich rather than Romney would do the best job among
GOP contenders on the economy. All voters say 48 – 42 percent that Romney would do a better
job on the economy than Obama. Obama gets 46 percent to Gingrich’s 45 percent on the
economy.
        Comparing Gingrich and Romney on other issues, Pennsylvania Republicans say:
       47 – 12 percent that Gingrich would do a better job on foreign policy;
       49 – 18 percent that Gingrich has the knowledge and experience to be a good president;
       26 – 9 percent that Romney has strong moral character;
       41 – 22 percent that Gingrich is a strong leader.
        “The fact that both Romney and Gingrich trail the president by 3 and 8 points
respectively at this point in the Keystone State could be a good sign for the Republicans given
that Obama carried Pennsylvania by double digits in 2008,” said Brown. “It is almost impossible
to come up with a reasonable scenario in which Obama loses Pennsylvania – which hasn’t voted
Republican for President since 1988 – and keeps his job.
        “This looks like a job for Vice President Joe Biden.”
        From November 28 – December 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
   1,226 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent, including 509 Republicans
    with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent;
   1,437 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent, including 500 Republicans with a
    margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent;
   1,453 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent, including 578
    Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent.
    Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.
       The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public
opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Virginia
and nationwide as a public service and for research.
For individual statewide crosstabs and trends visit –
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2881.xml or call (203) 582-5201.




                                                                                                     4
1. (If Registered Republican) If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being
held today, and the candidates were: Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney,
Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman and Herman Cain, for whom would
you vote?

                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA

Perry                 4%     4%     3%
Gingrich             35     36     31
Romney               22     18     17
Bachmann              4      5      3
Santorum              2      2      9
Paul                  8      7      7
Huntsman              2      1      3
Cain                  8      7      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      4
DK/NA                12     15     18


2. (If Registered Republican) Suppose the primary came down to a choice between
Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, for whom would you vote?

                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA

Romney               34%    28%    31%
Gingrich             52     55     50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      3      5
DK/NA                 9     13     11


3. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were
Barack Obama the Democrat and - Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                     FL     OH     PA

Obama                42%    42%    46%
Romney               45     43     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      4      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      4      3
DK/NA                 6      8      6


4. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were
Barack Obama the Democrat and - Newt Gingrich the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                     FL     OH     PA

Obama                46%    42%    48%
Gingrich             44     43     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      4      4
DK/NA                 5      7      6




                                                                                          5
5. Is your opinion of - Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
                     FL     OH     PA

Favorable            39%    32%    34%
Unfavorable          28     28     30
Hvn't hrd enough     30     38     33
REFUSED               2      2      3


6. Is your opinion of - Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

                     FL     OH     PA

Favorable            34%    32%    30%
Unfavorable          38     38     44
Hvn't hrd enough     25     29     24
REFUSED               2      1      2


7. Is your opinion of - Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

                     FL     OH     PA

Favorable            47%    42%    46%
Unfavorable          48     52     47
Hvn't hrd enough      3      3      3
REFUSED               2      3      4


8. Is your opinion of - Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

                     FL     OH     PA

Favorable            37%    34%    43%
Unfavorable          40     40     39
Hvn't hrd enough     21     25     17
REFUSED               2      1      1


9. Is your opinion of the - Republican Party favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard
enough about it?

                     FL     OH     PA

Favorable            36%    35%    33%
Unfavorable          50     49     53
Hvn't hrd enough     11     11     10
REFUSED               3      5      4


10. Is your opinion of the - Democratic Party favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard
enough about it?
                     FL     OH     PA

Favorable            40%    38%    42%
Unfavorable          48     48     46
Hvn't hrd enough      8     10      9
REFUSED               3      4      3


                                                                                            6
11. Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party movement or not?

                      FL    OH     PA

Yes                   15%   13%    13%
No                    81    83     82
DK/NA                  4     3      6


12. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of
enthusiasm about voting in the 2012 presidential election next year; are you more
enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual?

                      FL    OH     PA

More                  32%   26%    27%
Less                  23    22     26
About the same        44    51     46
DK/NA                  1     1      1


13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way (FL-Rick Scott/OH-John Kasich/PA-Tom Corbett)
is handling his job as Governor?

                      FL    OH     PA

Approve               33%   38%    47%
Disapprove            52    50     34
DK/NA                 15    12     19


14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as
President?

                      FL    OH     PA

Approve               41%   41%    43%
Disapprove            54    55     52
DK/NA                  5     4      5


15. Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does
not deserve to be reelected?

                      FL    OH     PA

Yes/Deserves          44%   42%    47%
No/Does not deserve   51    53     49
DK/NA                  5     5      4


16. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today?
Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                      FL    OH     PA

Very satisfied         3%    2%     1%
Smwht satisfied       19    17     17
Smwht dissatisfied    27    32     34
Very dissatisfied     51    49     47
DK/NA                  -     1      1




                                                                                            7
17. (If Registered Republican) Which of the following will be the single most important
issue in your vote in the Republican primary for President: the economy, health care,
immigration issues, terrorism, the federal budget deficit, taxes, foreign policy,
abortion or something else?

                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA

The economy          53%    50%    43%
Health care          10      8      9
Immigration issues    3      1      2
Terrorism             1      2      1
The deficit          18     23     25
Taxes                 3      5      6
Foreign policy        2      3      1
Abortion              3      4      5
Something else        6      4      5
DK/NA                 2      2      3


18. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which
Republican candidate do you think would do the best job handling - the economy:
Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul,
Jon Huntsman or Herman Cain?

                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA

Perry                 4%     5%     4%
Gingrich             31     31     30
Romney               29     24     22
Bachmann              3      4      4
Santorum              1      2      7
Paul                  8      9      7
Huntsman              2      1      2
Cain                 13     10      7
DK/NA                 8     14     18


19. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which
Republican candidate do you think would do the best job handling - foreign policy:
Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul,
Jon Huntsman or Herman Cain?

                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA

Perry                 1%     2%     1%
Gingrich             58     51     47
Romney               15     11     12
Bachmann              4      3      3
Santorum              1      2      7
Paul                  7      4      6
Huntsman              4      3      5
Cain                  3      3      1
DK/NA                 9     19     19




                                                                                           8
20. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which
Republican candidate do you think would do the best job handling - immigration issues:
Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul,
Jon Huntsman or Herman Cain?

                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA

Perry                10%    13%     9%
Gingrich             34     27     29
Romney               13     11     10
Bachmann              7      9      7
Santorum              2      4      8
Paul                  8      8      6
Huntsman              2      1      2
Cain                  6      6      2
DK/NA                18     21     26


21. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which
Republican candidate do you think is best described as having - the knowledge and
experience necessary to be a good president: Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney,
Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman or Herman Cain?

                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA

Perry                 1%     3%     2%
Gingrich             55     54     49
Romney               22     20     18
Bachmann              2      3      3
Santorum              1      1      5
Paul                  6      5      6
Huntsman              2      -      2
Cain                  3      2      1
DK/NA                 9     11     14


22. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which
Republican candidate do you think is best described as having - a strong moral character:
Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul,
Jon Huntsman or Herman Cain?

                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA

Perry                 7%     6%     4%
Gingrich             13     13      9
Romney               35     30     26
Bachmann             12     15      8
Santorum              6      8     24
Paul                  9     10      8
Huntsman              3      1      2
Cain                  3      3      2
DK/NA                12     14     17




                                                                                            9
23. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which
Republican candidate do you think is best described as being - likable: Rick Perry,
Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman or
Herman Cain?

                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA

Perry                 5%     7%     5%
Gingrich             19     19     14
Romney               30     29     33
Bachmann              7      9      8
Santorum              2      4     10
Paul                  6      7      4
Huntsman              3      1      4
Cain                 14     13      9
DK/NA                13     11     14


24. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which
Republican candidate do you think is best described as being - a strong leader:
Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul,
Jon Huntsman or Herman Cain?

                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA

Perry                 3%     6%     3%
Gingrich             42     44     41
Romney               28     20     22
Bachmann              3      4      3
Santorum              1      2      7
Paul                  6      4      4
Huntsman              1      -      1
Cain                  7      8      3
DK/NA                 9     12     15


25. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which
Republican candidate do you think is best described as being - able to defeat Barack
Obama in the general election: Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann,
Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman or Herman Cain?

                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA

Perry                 1%     3%     3%
Gingrich             40     39     34
Romney               37     30     32
Bachmann              -      3      2
Santorum              -      1      4
Paul                  3      4      2
Huntsman              -      -      1
Cain                  4      5      3
DK/NA                13     15     21




                                                                                           10
26. (If Registered Republican) When you decide who to vote for in the Republican primary
for President, which of the following is the single most important quality you look for
in a candidate: knowledgeable and experienced, strong leader, strong moral character,
likable, or ability to defeat Barack Obama?

                       REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                       FL     OH     PA

Knowledge/Experience   32%   31%    37%
Leader                 29    28     25
Moral Character        18    23     18
Likable                 -     -      1
Defeat Obama           21    16     15
DK/NA                   1     1      3


27. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which
Republican candidate do you think is best described as - most likely to win the
Republican nomination: Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann,
Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman or Herman Cain?

                       REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                       FL     OH     PA

Perry                   2%    2%     2%
Gingrich               40    40     33
Romney                 43    38     41
Bachmann                1     1      2
Santorum                -     -      3
Paul                    2     3      3
Huntsman                1     -      -
Cain                    2     1      1
DK/NA                  10    14     15


28. (If Registered Republican) When the Republican Party nominates its Presidential
candidate, which quality do you think should be more important, the candidate's ability
to defeat Barack Obama or the candidate's views on the issues?

                       REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                       FL     OH     PA

Defeat Obama           31%   27%    23%
Views                  66    72     75
DK/NA                   3     2      2


29. Whether or not you plan to vote for him, if - Mitt Romney were to become the next
president, how comfortable would you be with him as president; very comfortable, fairly
comfortable, not very comfortable, or not at all comfortable, or haven't you heard enough
about him to say?

                       FL     OH     PA

Very comfortable       15%   11%    10%
Fairly comfortable     32    30     35
Not very comfortable   19    19     19
Not at all comfrtble   18    13     15
Hvn't hrd enough       14    26     19
DK/NA                   2     1      2




                                                                                           11
30. Whether or not you plan to vote for him, if - Newt Gingrich were to become the next
president, how comfortable would you be with him as president; very comfortable, fairly
comfortable, not very comfortable, or not at all comfortable, or haven't you heard enough
about him to say?

                       FL    OH    PA

Very comfortable       19%   14%   15%
Fairly comfortable     21    24    22
Not very comfortable   15    15    18
Not at all comfrtble   29    23    29
Hvn't hrd enough       14    23    15
DK/NA                   1     1     1


31. Whether or not you plan to vote for him, if - Barack Obama were to be reelected
president, how comfortable would you be with him as president; very comfortable, fairly
comfortable, not very comfortable, or not at all comfortable, or haven't you heard enough
about him to say?

                       FL    OH    PA

Very comfortable       25%   22%   25%
Fairly comfortable     25    26    25
Not very comfortable   12    15    16
Not at all comfrtble   37    35    32
Hvn't hrd enough        1     1     1
DK/NA                   1     1     1


32. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the
economy, Barack Obama or - Mitt Romney?

                       FL    OH    PA

Obama                  41%   39%   42%
Romney                 49    47    48
DK/NA                  10    13    11


33. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the
economy, Barack Obama or - Newt Gingrich?

                       FL    OH    PA

Obama                  44%   41%   46%
Gingrich               47    48    45
DK/NA                   9    11    10




                                                                                          12
34. Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are currently living in
the United States?
A) They should be allowed to stay in the United States and to eventually apply for U.S.
   citizenship.
B) They should be allowed to remain in the United States, but not be allowed to apply for
   U.S. citizenship.
C) They should be required to leave the U.S.

                      FL    OH     PA

A) Stay/Citizenship   54%   46%   48%
B) Stay/Not citizen   14    12    12
C) Not stay           27    36    34
DK/NA                  5     5     5


35. Some people have suggested a change in the immigration law so that some illegal
immigrants that have been in the United States for a long time could become legal
residents but not eligible for citizenship. Do you think that is a good idea or a bad
idea?

                      FL    OH     PA

Good idea             43%   39%   39%
Bad idea              50    53    52
DK/NA                  7     8     9




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