Introduction to IPE by 969J7X

VIEWS: 12 PAGES: 64

									     Introduction to IPE




Jerry Cohen               Barry Eichengreen




Class 2 – Thursday, 12 February 2009
            J A Morrison                      1
              Admin
1. My OH: Tue 1:30-4:30 (RAJ B04)
2. Did you read the syllabus?
3. Did you get the reading?




                                    2
    Agenda: Introduction to IPE
I. Studying IPE
 I. IPE as a Social Science
 II. IR “Schools”/“Theories”
 III. Some Differentiating Questions
II. Some of the Big IPE Questions


                                       3
    Agenda: Introduction to IPE
I. Studying IPE
 I. IPE as a Social Science
 II. IR “Schools”/“Theories”
 III. Some Differentiating Questions
II. Some of the Big IPE Questions


                                       4
How should we study
       IPE?


                      5
I. STUDYING IPE
   1. IPE as a Social Science
   2. IR “Schools”/“Theories”
   3. Some Differentiating Questions




                                       6
 There’s a real question
about the extent to which
 we do and should study
    IPE as a science.

                        7
   We’ll consider that
       question.

  But, first, let’s discuss
 what it means to study
something “scientifically.”
                          8
   Scientific study has
several defining features.


                             9
Scientific study is positive.
  Concerned with what is (positive), not
 what ought to be (normative).


                                            10
And scientific study relies
 on the empirical testing
of models to explain the
  relationship between
        variables.
                          11
Let’s unpack that.



                     12
                Variables
•  Factors of interest that may vary in value
• May be continuous, discrete, or a “dummy”
• Examples
  – Volume of trade (continuous)
  – Type of Exchange Rate Regime (discrete)
  – Status of membership in Int’l Organization
    (dummy)


                                                 13
    Theories and Models
• Specify relationship between variables
  – Value of independent (or “explanatory”) variable
    explains dependent variable
  – Example: Type of exchange rate regime (IV)
    explains the volume of trade (DV)
• May be correct or incorrect (i.e. may or may
  not comport with reality)
• Endogenous: determined within the model
• Exogenous: determined outside of the model
                                                       14
                    Facts
• Descriptions of reality
• For our purposes, statements about the value
  of variables
• May be correct or incorrect
• Examples:
  – Hong Kong has a fixed exchange rate (correct)
  – The volume of world trade has increased since
    1945 (correct)
  – The United States has a fixed exchange rate
    regime (incorrect)                              15
           Empirical Tests
• Theories/Models lead to testable hypotheses
  – E.g. Fixed exchange rate regimes lead to greater
    volumes of trade.
• Hypotheses are predictions about the value of
  variables
• We test hypotheses by comparing predictions
  to observed reality
  – Do we observe that countries with fixed exchange
    rate regimes have greater volumes of trade than
    countries with flexible exchange rate regimes? 16
  Correlation ≠ Causation
• Correlation: the values of two variables vary
  together
• BUT
  – There may be spurious correlation: exogenous
    variable determines both of our variables
  – Or causality may be reversed
     • E.g. High trade volumes lead to fixed exchange rate
       regimes (rather than vice versa).


                                                             17
Scientific study relies on
    an epistemology.
 An understanding of what can be
known and how to acquire knowledge.


                                      18
I. STUDYING IPE
   1. IPE as a Social Science
   2. IR “Schools”/“Theories”
   3. Some Differentiating Questions




                                       19
You hear a lot about the
“schools” of IR thought.

Realism, Constructivism, Idealism,
 Liberalism, Institutionalism, &c.

                                 20
These terms, used tout
 court, mean almost
   nothing to me.

                         21
There is simply too much
 variation within these
  “schools” for these
monikers to convey much
  useful information.
                       22
Many of the “founders”
of these schools (Wendt,
Mearsheimer) don’t even
 agree on who belongs
 where, let alone what
  defines each school.
                       23
   So, think in terms of
 either specific theorists
and/or specific theories—
 meaning, responses to
    precise questions.
                         24
  And think in terms of
multiple dimensions—not
   just a simple, one-
dimensional continuum.
(The way my mother does: liberals versus conservatives.)


                                                      25
I. STUDYING IPE
   1. IPE as a Social Science
   2. IR “Schools”/“Theories”
   3. Some Differentiating Questions




                                       26
 Here are some of the essential
    questions we might ask.

   Each question constitutes a
dimension along which we might
  organize different theorists &
            theories.
                                   27
(1) Where’s all the action?




                              28
       The Levels (Images) of IP
• At what level should we look for the key
  variables?
• The Levels (Images)
  – Individual (1st): Hitler liked war
  – Unit/State (2nd): Germany was Autocratic;
    Autocracies are bellicose
  – System (3rd): There wasn’t a hegemon (single
    dominant power) to check Germany’s rise


                                                   29
       The Primary Actors in IP
• Who are the primary actors in IP? What ought
  to be our “units of analysis”?
• Potential Units of Analysis
  – States
  – Individuals
  – International Institutions & Organizations
  – Interest Groups and NGOs
  – Socio-Economic Classes
  – Transnational Social Movements (e.g. Feminism,
    Environmentalism, &c)                            30
         The Types of Variables
• What types of variables matter?
• Material Factors
  – Power
  – Wealth
  – Geography
  – Material interests (income, &c)
• Ideal Factors
  – Values
  – Perceptions & Understandings
  – Assumptions, Expectations, & Perceptions
                                               31
(2) Does process matter?




                           32
   Static versus Dynamic Models
• Static Models
  – “Snapshot” of current situation
  – History, momentum, &c., do not matter
  – Many variables treated as exogenous
• Dynamic Models
  – Process matters
  – Virtually all variables could be endogenous


                                                  33
    Why use static models at all?
parsimony—dynamic models are quite
 unwieldy.

- The question: which variables can we assume
  to be exogenously determined?
- Disagreement arises over answers



                                                34
(3) What makes us tick?




                          35
      Logics of Human Behavior
• Consequentialist (Functionalist)
  – Actions chosen based on expected consequences
• Appropriateness (Normative)
  – Actions chosen based on normative standards of
    right & wrong




                                                     36
    Narrowness of Our Interests
• Egoism
  – Almost total emphasis on one’s own welfare
• Altruism
  – Considerable weight given to the welfare of others




                                                     37
        Source of Our Interests
• Rationalism
  – Preferences are exogenously determined
• Constructivism
  – Preferences are endogenous to interaction


• Are we social or unitary actors?



                                                38
    Agenda: Introduction to IPE
I. Studying IPE
 I. IPE as a Social Science
 II. IR “Schools”/“Theories”
 III. Some Differentiating Questions
II. Some of the Big IPE Questions


                                       39
 We developed some of these
questions on Tuesday. But there
      are some newbies.



                                  40
II. SOME BIG IPE QUESTIONS
   1. From Tuesday: Definition of “International
      Political Economy”
   2. Globalization
   3. The Shape of the Study of IPE


                                                   41
(1) What does the “international”
   bit of “international political
   economy” mean? What is its
            significance?


                                 42
   The simple answer: unlike
  domestic politics, there is no
sovereign in international politics
         (by definition).


                                  43
But is that an accurate definition?




                                  44
 Are there neatly ordered political
entities that enjoy a monopoly of
the legitimate use of force in their
      domains (i.e. “states”)?

       (Think Colombia. Or Sri Lanka.)



                                         45
And is all of the international
  system really anarchic?

   (Think North America. Or Europe.)




                                       46
  (2) What is the optimal level of
  state intervention? Do markets
generally work on their own, or do
they require active management?


                                 47
(3) In so far as we have to prioritize
 one, should politics or economics
be given deference? Which should
           be subordinate?


                                    48
II. SOME BIG IPE QUESTIONS
   1. From Tuesday: Definition of “International
      Political Economy”
   2. Globalization
   3. The Shape of the Study of IPE


                                                   49
Is globalization inevitable?




                               50
How would we measure this?

What’s globalization again?



                              51
   Let’s say globalization is the
minimization of the importance of
 space as an influence on social,
political, and economic outcomes.


                                52
In IPE, we might assess the level of
  globalization by measuring the
level of trade, cross-border capital
flows, and international migration.


                                   53
So, recalling Grieco & Ikenberry, is
     globalization inevitable?



                                   54
       Measures of Globalization
• Trade: Share of Exports in World Output
   – Peaked in 1913
   – This point was not surpassed until 1970 (G&I, 5)
• Capital: Flows relative to National Income
   – Level of integration still has not reached the levels
     achieved among developed countries between 1870 and
     1913 (G&I, 217)
• Migration: Movement relative to World Population
   – More people crossing borders in 1900 than today (Hatton
     & Williamson, 1998.)

                                                               55
It seems that the world was more
 fully globalized in 1900 than it is
               today.



                                   56
Damn.




        57
  If globalization isn’t inevitable,
then what explains variation in the
   last century of globalization?



                                   58
II. SOME BIG IPE QUESTIONS
   1. From Tuesday: Definition of “International
      Political Economy”
   2. Globalization
   3. The Shape of the Study of IPE


                                                   59
What should the study of IPE look
             like?



                                60
 (Think: Cohen on the British &
American Schools; Eichengreen on
      Economics versus IR)



                               61
 Should we consider normative
questions? Or just positive ones?



                                    62
 How scientific should our inquiry
                be?

How rigorous should our empirical
         standards be?

Should we only formulate refutable
          hypotheses?
                                     63
How much emphasis should we
   place on the state (versus
individuals, NGOs, MNCs, &c)?



                                64

								
To top