ABK Ambac Finl Grp Inc. 11/26/2007
Sector: Financials Analyst: Justin Green
Current Data
Current Price $24.02 Market Cap $2.44B ROE 3.92%
52 Week Range $20.55 - $96.10 Price/Sales (ttm) 2.63
Price/Earnings (ttm) 11.03 Dividend Yield 3.50%
Portfolio Holdings
Shares Held Most recent transaction date Most recent transaction
CFASP 100 11/27/2007 Bought 100
Davidson 105 12/5/2007 Bought 105
Business Description
Currently Ambac is the second largest municipal bond insurer in the country. Through Q3 2007, Ambac's
revenue has been distributed amongst three primary businesses: structured finance (36% of revenue),
municipal bond insurance (34% of revenue) and international finance (30% of revenue).
Ambac insures the principal and interest of various publicly backed bonds in return for a one time payment at
the bond issuance. The amount of the premium is usually based on the spread between the intrinsic quality of
the bond issued, and an AAA rated bond.
In specialized and structured finance products, Ambac creates securities from various forms of pooled debt,
which includes, but is not limited to mortgage backed and home equity obligations, as well as asset backed
conduits such as car loans and student loans.
Reasons For Purchase
1. Ambac's stock has been discounted far beyond its fair value in 2007 which is reflected in a
current Price/BV ratio of .46. This market price offers a tremendous upside opportunity.
2. Current fears of Ambac's exposure to risky subprime collatorized debt obligations and residential
mortgage backed securities are not accurate. Ambac has lost a market cap value beyond its exposure
to these types of risks.
3. Ambac has maintained steady top line growth despite a tumultuous surety environment in Q3 & Q4 '07
Risks and Issues to Watch Catalysts
1. Unprecedented default rates in mortgages 1. Default rates on mortgages stabilize
2. Ambac's credit rating is reduced below AAA 2. Moody's & Fitch's require Ambac to provide little
3. Competition for bond insuring increases, to no excess capitalization
drastically reducing margins 3. Spreads between AAA/AA securities increase
4. New competition slows top line production of rev. 4. Ambac's market share continues to increase
Price Target
Valuation
Target $55.64 Method Used Value
% to Target 132.00% Adj BV/Share $88.07
Comparable Valuaton Summary
Company Name Ticker Dividend Yield P/E (ttm) Price/BV ROE
S&P 500 SPY 1.76% 15.72 2.68 11.58%
Financial SPDR XLF 2.64% 7.4 1.71 12.00%
Insurance SPDR KIE 1.90% 10.4 1.46 21.42%
MBIA MBI 3.70% 7.92 0.66 8.13%
Ambac ABK 3.50% 11.03 0.46 3.92%
Surety and Title Ins ^YHOH771 3.80% 27.9 1.1 3.80%