From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia NERD (sabermetrics)
NERD (sabermetrics)
In baseball statistics, NERD (a wink towards towards the "Team Defense," "Luck" (Base Runs – Actual Runs
mnemonic "Narration, Exposition, Reflection, Descrip- Scored), and "Payroll".[3]
tion") is a quantitative measure of expected aesthetical
value. NERD was originally created by Carson Cistulli[1] In a recent interview Cistulli admitted that there is a
and is part of his project of exploring the "art" of saber- disconnect between The Rays high tNERD rating and low
metric research[2]. The original NERD formula only took attendance saying that he is considered adding a "park-
into account the pitcher’s expected performance[1] while adjustment" to his formula which would reflect either
the current model factors in the entire team’s perfor- the stadium itself or "attendance relative to the stadi-
mance[3]. um’s capacity"[13] but overall reception of this statistic
has been positive[14][15] and Fangraphs started reporting
History Team NERD in Cistulli’s One Night Only columns begin-
ning August 23rd, 2010.[16]
The premise for NERD was developed in Cistulli’s piece
"Why We Watch" in which he establishes the five reasons
that baseball continues to captivate the American imag-
References
ination from game to game: "Pitching Matchups," "Sta- [1] ^ "Introducing NERD". Fangraphs.com.
tistically Notable (or Otherwise Compelling) Players," http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/
"Rookies (and Debuts)," "Seasonal Context," and "Quality introducing-nerd/. Retrieved 2010-11-30.
of Broadcast"[4]. Fellow sabermatrician Rob Neyer, who [2] "The Long Hello: Some Notes on Luck".
had collaborated with Cistulli on this piece, wrote "the Fangraphs.com. http://www.fangraphs.com/
only thing missing [...] is a points system that would let blogs/index.php/the-long-hello-some-notes-on-
us put a number on each game"[5] and on June 2, 2010 Cis- luck/. Retrieved 2010-11-30.
tulli unveiled the NERD Pitching formula[1]. [3] ^ "Intoducing Team NERD". Fangraphs.com.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/
NERD pitching introducing-team-nerd/. Retrieved 2010-11-30.
[4] "Why We Watch". Fangraphs.com.
NERD pitching tries to determine which pitchers will be http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/
the most aesthetically appealing to watch for a baseball why-we-watch/. Retrieved 2010-11-30.
fan and is both a historical and a predictive statistic[6]. [5] "Thursday Throneberries". Espn.com.
The NERD pitching formula uses a players standard de- http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/
viations from the mean (a weighted z-score[7]) of the 3751/thursday-throneberries-9. Retrieved
DIPS statistic xFIP, swinging strike percentage, overall 2010-11-30.
strike percentage, and the differential between the pitch- [6] "One Night Only Now with More NERD".
ers ERA and xFIP to determine a quantitative value for Fangraphs.com. http://www.fangraphs.com/
each pitcher[1][8]. blogs/index.php/one-night-only-now-with-more-
nerd/. Retrieved 2010-11-30.
The factor of 4.69 is added to make the number fit on [7] "A post in Five Parts". USS Mariner.
a 0 to 10 scale. While there has been some disagreement http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/06/23/a-post-
on the calculation of Cistulli’s luck component[9] the gen- in-five-parts/. Retrieved 2011-02-16.
eral consensus among sports writers seems to be that a [8] "Strasburg Breaks NERD". Fangraphs.com.
player with a below average ERA and an above average http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/
xFIP has been "unlucky"[10][11][12]. strasburg-breaks-nerd/. Retrieved 2010-11-30.
[9] "Why You Can’t Subtract FIP from ERA". The
Team NERD Hardball Times. http://www.hardballtimes.com/
main/blog_article/why-you-cant-subtract-fip-
Following the model of his Pitching NERD, Team NERD from-era/. Retrieved 2010-11-30.
tries to give a quantitative value to the aesthetic value of [10] "Getting nerdy". Ghost Runner on First.
each of the 30 baseball teams. For factors it accounts for http://www.ghostrunneronfirst.com/2010/06/
"Age," "Park-Adjusted wRAA," "Park-Adjusted Home Run getting-nerdy-with-jays-starters.html. Retrieved
per Fly Ball (HR/FB)," "Team Speed," "Bullpen Strength," 2010-11-30.
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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia NERD (sabermetrics)
[11] "Joba and FIP". It’s About the Money. 34253/mlb-insider-rob-neyer. Retrieved
http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2010/09/ 2010-11-30.
12/joba-and-fip/. Retrieved 2010-11-30. [15] "Baseruns Spreadsheets and team NERD".
[12] "Finally on board the sabermetrics revolution". Jfwiii.net. http://jfwiii.net/2010/08/23/baseruns-
Espn.com. http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/ spreadsheet-and-team-nerd/. Retrieved
story?page=simmons/100402. Retrieved 2010-11-30.
2010-11-30. [16] "One Night Only: Now with Team NERD".
[13] "A Q&A with Carson Cistulli". Draysbay.com. Fangraphs.com. http://www.fangraphs.com/
http://www.draysbay.com/2010/11/10/1804861/ blogs/index.php/one-night-only-now-with-team-
a-q-a-with-carson-cistulli. Retrieved 2010-11-30. nerd/. Retrieved 2010-11-30.
[14] "Chat with Rob Neyer". Espn.com.
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/
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