Hawaii Energy Resource Technologies for Energy Security--Energy, Climate Change, and Energy Security - Some Comments

Energy, Climate Change, and Energy Security - Some Comments Terry Surles - Hawaii Natural Energy Institute Hawaii Association of Environmental Professionals June 25, 2009 Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 1 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Public/Private Partnerships Critical For Addressing Overarching Issues Facing Energy Infrastructures Electricity System Issues Grid Modernization: Renewable and DG Peak Demand Grid Stability Global Climate Change Environment Quality: Energy Security: Environment Quality Life cycle analyses Oil from “grumpy” nations, Critical Infrastructure Protection Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa None Of These Issues Can Be Resolved Without Partnerships 2 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa World Electricity Consumption Natural Gas 25% Natural Gas 18% Nuclear 16% Renewables Coal 38% Renewables 20% Oil 8% Oil Coal Nuclear 12% 37% 19% 7% 6 1 % G r o w t h 2025 259 Quads 2001 161 Quads Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa Worldwide electricity consumption is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.3% between 2001 - 2025 3 Source: IEO2004, Table 16 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Global Oil Consumption Global Oil Consumption (EJ) 200 Growth ~ 1%/year 160 Asia Pacific 120 Africa Middle East Europe and Eurasia 80 Latin America North America 40 0 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 4 Source: BP World Energy Review, 2007 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Proven Oil Reserves (2006) Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 5 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa BP World Energy Review, 2007 Hawaii Is Heavily Dependent on Petroleum for Energy Use Geothermal, Hydroelectric, Photovoltaic, 0.35% 0.70% 0.01% Municipal Solid Wind, 0.02% Waste, 1.29% Solar Hot Water, Coal, 4.80% 1.38% Biomass, 1.63% Petroleum, 89.81% Source: State of Hawaii Strategic Industries Division Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 6 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Hawaii’s Dependence on Foreign Oil Is Headed in the Wrong Direction Figure 2 Hawaii's Crude Oil Sources 1992-2006 60000 50000 OTHER LIBYA NIGERIA YEMEN U.A. EMIRATES ANGOLA ECUADOR THAILAND 40000 Barrels per Year 30000 PAPUA NEW GUINEA OMAN AUSTRALIA MALAYSIA BRUNEI INDONESIA VIETNAM CHINA SAUDI ARABIA 20000 10000 ALASKA 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Sources: State of Hawaii Strategic Industries Division and U.S. Energy Information Agency, 2007 Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 7 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Climate Change: It’s Getting Worse “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.” – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • Annual fossil CO2 emissions increased from an average of 6.4 GtC per year in the 1990s, to 7.2 GtC per year in 2000-2005 • CO2 radiative forcing increased by 20% from 1995 to 2005, the largest in any decade in at least the last 200 years (since the start of the Industrial Era) Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 8 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Various Modeling Results for Historical Temperatures: The Infamous Inhofe/Barton/Crichton “Hockey Stick” Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 9 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period Rate 50 0.1280.026 100 0.0740.018 Years /decade Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 10 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change CO2, CH4 and N2O Concentrations - far exceed pre-industrial values - increased markedly since 1750 due to human activities Relatively little variation before the industrial era (Note that water vapor is a GHG) Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 11 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Greenhouse Gases* Chemical Formula Lifetime (Years) See next slide 12 Radiative Efficiency (W/m2/ppb) 20 year Warming Potential 1 72 100 year Warming Potential 1 25 500 year Warming Potential 1 7.6 Carbon dioxide Methane CO2 CH4 1.4 x 10-5 3.7 x 10-4 Nitrous Oxide HFCs CFCs N2O e.g. CHF3 e.g. CCl3F 114 10s to 100s 10s to 100s 3.03 x 10-3 289 298 1,000s to 10,000s 1,000s to 10,000s 153 1,000s to 10,000s 1,000s to 10,000s ~ 0.1 to 0.4 1,000s to 10,000s ~ 0.2 to 0.3 1,000s to 10,000s ~10,000s ~10,000s Perfluoroc e.g. SF6 1000s ~0.1 to 0.4 ~10,000s arbons Hawaii Natural Energy Institute *ForHNEI complete listing see Table TS.2, IPCC Working Group I, Technical Summary, Fourth HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 12 Assessment Report. School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa North Atlantic hurricanes have increased with SSTs N. Atlantic hurricane record best after 1944 with Marked increase aircraft after 1994 surveillance. (1944-2005) SST Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa Global number and percentage of intense hurricanes is increasing 13 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Projections of Future Changes in Climate Best estimate for low scenario (B1) is 1.8°C (likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C), and for high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C (likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C). consistent with span quoted for SRES in TAR, but not directly comparable Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 14 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa A Paleoclimatic Perspective Paleoclimate information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half century is unusual in at least the previous 1300 years. The last time the polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice volume led to 4 to 6 metres of sea level rise. Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 15 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Emissions Projections Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 16 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Problem Confluence: Global Security and Climate • Significant climate change and sea level rise will lead to major population dislocations – Foster additional radical groups against existing nations and economies: southern Asia • Climate change can produce “winners” as well as “losers” – Northern countries may benefit: Canada, Russia – Temperate countries may suffer due to loss of cropland and increase of tropical diseases and exotic pests – Winners and losers will also be driven by water - increased storms nd more persistent droughts • Will most certainly exacerbate international tensions – Particular issues concerning water availability: China, Middle East Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 17 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Problem Confluence: Climate Change and Energy Security • Availability and upward price pressure on oil prices disruption of supply in Africa and the Gulf Coast • Natural Gas - related price pressures as well as increased reliance on foreign imports of LNG • Coal - could increase in use due to domestic supplies and lower prices - exacerbating climate issues • Nuclear - pressure to increase deployment, with concerns over proliferation risks • Bio-fuels - increased food/fuel competition, coupled with uncertainties related to future agricultural productivity Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 18 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Is There a Limit to Where and How We Get Oil in the Future: Per Capita Production Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 19 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Carbon Management and Energy Security: No Silver Bullet Carbon Management Decarbonization Sequestration Efficiency < CO2 Btu < CO2 atm CO2 emitted < Btu GDP • Nuclear • Renewables Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa • Regional • End-use Partnerships • Capture/storage School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Technologies • Demand response 20 Energy Efficiency – The Most Cost Effective Approach Hawaii Lighting HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE Transportation Appliances 21 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa University of Hawaii at Manoa Focus Needs to be on Buildings Buildings use 71% of electricity Wash 5% Electronics 5% Industry 33% Buildings 39% Cooking 5% Computers 1% Other 4% 21% Refrigeration 9% Cooling 10% Heating 32% Transportation 28% 18% Cooking 2% Computers 3% Refrigeration 4% Ventilation 7% Office Equip 7% Water Heat 7% Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa Other 10% Lights 28% Lights Water 12% Heat 13% Residential School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Cooling 13% Heating Commercial 16%% Source: 2004 Buildings Energy Databook with SEDS distributed to all end-uses 22 Colored Cool Roof Project Available now: • Standing seam • Clay tile In development: • Concrete tile • Composition Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 23 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Electricity Generating Capacity for 150 Million Refrigerators + Freezers in the US 60 50 40 GW 30 capacity saved capacity needed 20 10 0 Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa at 1974 efficiency at 2001 efficiency 24 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Renewable Electricity Overview Solar 1% Wind 19% Geothermal 15% Other Gases, 0.40% Hydroelectric, 6.50% Nuclear, 19.30% Coal, 49.70% Other Renewables, 2.30% Natural Gas, 18.70% Petroleum, 3.00% Other, 0.10% U.S. Electric Power Industry Net Generation, 2005 Biomass 65% Total = 4,055 Billion KWh Electric Utility Plants = 63% Independent Power Producers & Combined Heat and Power Plants = 37.0% Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute 25 HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa What is Possible for Renewable Electricity Renewable Energy Expected From State Standards 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 HI CA N V AZ & NM WA CO & MT TX MN IA & WI MD PA DC & DE NJ NY CT & RI MA ME 2005 2010 2015 2020 Total Estimated Solar Capacity Driven by State RPS Set-Asides (assuming full compliance with mandates) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2000 2010: 2015: 2020: 2030: 400 MW to 500 MW 1,200 MW to 1,400 MW 2,800 MW to 3,200 MW 3,700 MW to 4,300 MW Megawatts Western Governor’s Association 2015 Goal Clean Energy – 30,000 MW • • Solar – 8,000 MW Wind – 5,000 to 9,000 MW • • Geothermal – 5,600 MW Energy Efficiency – 40,000 MW 26 Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Life Cycle Emissions: Well-to-Wheels Analysis – Biofuel System Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 27 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Biomass/Biofuels Status Biopower • Grid-connected capacity – 9700 MW direct combustion – 400 MW co-firing • Biopower electricity prices generally range from 8-12¢/kWh Rated at 21 MW and providing the San Francisco Bay Area with baseload capacity, the Tracy Biomass Plant uses wood residues discarded from agricultural and industrial operations. Biofuels • Biodiesel – 30 million gallons (2004) • Corn ethanol – 81 commercial plants – 3.4 billion gallons (2004) – ~$1.22/gal • Cellulosic ethanol* – $2.49/gal Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute * Not commercially available HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa • World biomass electricity capacity (2004): 36 GW • World biofuels production capacity (2004): ethanol 32 billion l/yr; biodiesel 2.2 billion l/yr Source: Worldwatch Institute 28 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Brazil—the Saudi Arabia of biofuels—is currently the only country that truly has a large, viable industry… Although the US ethanol market is also sizable. Range of Biofuel Production Costs Ethanol from Sugar Cane Ethanol from Corn Ethanol from Beet Ethanol from Wheat Ethanol from Lignocellulose Biodiesel from Animal Fats Biodiesel from Vegetable Oils 0 50 100 150 200 $/bbl Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 29 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Development of Sustainable, Integrated Bioenergy Systems for Hawaii • Develop sustainable crop production systems – DOE and Industry initiatives with CTAHR • Validate conversion technology compatibility with oil and fiber crop fractions – DOE, ClearFuels, and other Industry initiatives • Demonstration and scale-up of integrated systems – Industry lead with University support • Enact policy to encourage development of bioenergy industry: Biofuels Master Plan (ACT 253) - HNEI-led – Primary objective of the plan is to develop a Hawaii renewable biofuels program to manage the State’s transition to energy self-sufficiency based in part on biofuels for power generation and transportation. 30 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa Massive Development of Biomass Technology is Not Without Issues • Water Use – Irrigation requires energy – Water rights will be at issue • Fertilizer – Many are produced with natural gas feedstocks – Run-off cases considerable pollution, ocean dead zones • Competition for Food • Land Availability – use of marginal lands can make erosion problems worse • Contribution to Global Warming – Destruction of tropical forests • Conversion Technologies – Problems with developing cost-effective cellulosic conversion systems Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 31 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Hawaii National Marine Renewable Energy Test Center • UH awarded one of two ocean energy test centers announced by USDOE fall 2008 – Industry driven, requiring 50% cost share – Also leverages DOD funding • Objectives: – Wave: Facilitate development & implementation of commercial wave energy systems – with one or more of these systems to supply energy to grid at >50% availability within 5 years – Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion: Conduct long-term testing and help move OTEC to precommercialization – Testing of OTEC components partially funded by Office of Naval Research via grant to HNEI Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 32 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Ocean Energy Center Test Sites Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 33 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa As Available Renewable Resources: Wind Energy Capacity Growth Worldwide Jan 2007 Cumulative MW = 71,476 Rest of World = 11,043 13,054 Actual Rest of World Projected Rest of World North America Europe North America = 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 North America Europe U.S. – 11,603MW Canada – 1,451MW Europe = 47,379 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa Sources: BTM Consult Aps, March 2005 Windpower Monthly, January 2007 34 *NREL Estimate for 2007 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa GE WindEnergy 3.6 MW Turbine Boeing 747-200 Arklow Banks Windfarm Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute The Irish Sea HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 35 Photo: R. Thresher School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 36 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa As-Available Wind and Solar Energy Systems on the Grid: Problems for Power Quality and Reliability, Necessities in a Digital Society Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 37 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa From Imre Gyuk, DOE, 2007 Electricity Storage for High Penetrations of As Available Renewable Resources Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 38 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa From Imre Gyuk, DOE, 2007 Aspects of the “Smart Grid” - Linking IT to Electricity: Communications, Control, and Information Systems • Take advantage of technologies developed for exogenous applications • Resolves issues arising from greater penetration of distributed energy resources and technologies on grid • Critical component for more effective and efficient load management, demand response, demand-side management • Major concern is the effective linking of electrical and mechanical engineering skills with information technology profession Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 39 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa HNEI’s ―Maui Smart Grid Project‖ Is Designed to Meet Federal, State, and Utility Needs • Objective is to demonstrate a distributed system that aggregates DG, energy storage, and demand response technologies to achieve transmission, distribution and end-use benefits • Focus is on ―reduction of peak demand by at least 15%‖ using a diverse mix of DG, storage, renewable energy, demand response • Effort to provide solutions for mitigating the effects of as-available renewable energy • Team consists of HNEI, General Electric, Hawaiian Electric Co, Maui Electric Co, Sentech, First Wind • Funded at $14M in FY08 and 09 – Just under $7M from DOE – Real ―iron in the ground‖ and utility cooperation and enthusiasm for achieving primary goals for DOE/OE, the utility, and the state Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 40 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa IGCC - FC Hybrid, Biomass, Solar, Nuclear, Direct Carbon FC Bulk Generation Transmission Wind & Distribution Transmission Substation Commercial Residential Distribution Substation Industrial Gensets , Solar, FC, LM Gensets , Solar, Fuel Cells (FC), Gensets , FC, LM Load Management (LM) Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa Distributed Integrated Systems (Storage, Generation, and Intelligence) will be essential for the Grid of the Future 41 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Nuclear Should Remain an Option BUT • Cost • Waste disposal • Health and safety • Proliferation Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 42 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Nuclear Power Consumption Global Nuclear Consumption (EJ) 30 Growth ~ 4%/year 20 Asia Pacific Africa Middle East Europe and Eurasia Latin America 10 North America 0 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 43 Source: BP World Energy Review, 2007 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa U.S. electricity production costs 1995-2005 (averages in 2005 cents per kilowatt-hour) Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 44 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa World Coal Consumption Global Coal Consumption (EJ) 160 Growth ~ 2%/yr 120 Asia Pacific Africa 80 Middle East Europe and Eurasia Latin America North America 40 0 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 45 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Planned New Coal Plant Emissions Equal All Historic Coal CO2 143 145 27% of remaining budget for 450 ppm 150 100 50 0 1751-2000 Total Coal New Coal Plants Lifetime Emissions Billion tonnes Carbon Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 46 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Source: ORNL, CDIAC; IEA, WEO 2004 Carbon Sequestration: Continued Use of Domestic Resources (new HNEI effort) • Two major challenges for economically viable, environmentally acceptable CCS • Lower cost capture – currently up to 35% cost penalty on PVC systems • Reducing uncertainty of storage permanence, safety, etc. • Need to resolve both to gain acceptance to keep coal as option and hedge bets on Integrated Gasification/Combined Cycle (IGCC) coal-fired power plants Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 47 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Sleipner Project, North Sea 1996 to present 1 Mt CO2 injection/yr  Seismic monitoring Picture compliments of Statoil and LBNL Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 48 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Reduce CO2 Emissions from Transportation Transportation Shipping 173 • Improve fuel efficiency of cars and trucks • Switch to plug-in hybrid or electric cars – Only provides a benefit if emissions from electricity are reduced Aircraft 205 MT C/yr 1,325 • Switch to low-C fuels – E.g. H2 – Biofuels with low life-cycle emissions Road and Rail 0 500 1,000 1,500 • On-board capture of emissions from large mobile sources? • Nuclear powered ships and aircraft? Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 49 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Looking Forward: Integration of Transportation and Electricity • Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Integration of transportation and electricity sectors can provide solutions Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 50 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Integration of the Transportation and Electricity Sector Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa From Michael Kintner-Meyer, PNNL, 2007 51 Integration of RDD&D Initiatives: Need to Connect Basic, Development, Applied Activities with Public Policies Basic and Applied Research Fundamental Understanding Technical Needs Pilot and Demonstration Projects Technology Fundamental Understanding Industrial Scale Projects Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 52 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Carbon “Markets” – Need for Hawaii to Develop Source/Sink Baselines • Allowance markets – “Cap and trade” programs that allocate GHG emissions that can be traded to achieve compliance goals. – – – AAU trading between countries under the Kyoto Protocol EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) Worked effectively for sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides in the USA • Credit markets – “Baseline and credit” schemes in which GHG “offsets” or “credits” are awarded for GHG abatement projects that reduce emissions against a project baseline and are traded and used for compliance purposes. – – Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) program Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) and other voluntary schemes (RECs) • Carbon Tax - can government create level playing field – – Must be “fair” to all economic sectors - utilities, transportation, other sectors Must be societally “fair” - carbon taxes will tend to be regressive taxes Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 53 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Energy Challenges for Hawaii – State Legislation How do we reduce dependence on oil and reduce greenhouse gas emissions while • Keeping electricity and fuel costs competitive • Managing environmental impact and public acceptance • Maintaining reliability Meeting this challenge requires coordination from all stakeholders • Well-conceived public policies – grounded by new technologies • Validation and implementation of advanced energy systems • Program continuity and consistency Stakeholders want simple solutions but most are not simple – conundrum of as-available renewable energy – plentiful, but hard on the grid! Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 54 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Hawaii Faces Unique Challenges in the Face of National Legislation • Hawaii’s economy depends on tourism • Hawaii requires the importation of foodstocks and other supplies • Significant military presence must be factored How does the state deal with national legislation that may significantly and negatively impact the economy - either through cap and trade or carbon taxes? Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 55 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa HNEI: Linking R&D and Public Policy to Commercialization Process Basic Research & Development Collaborative Technology Development Integration Application Technology Commercialization National Laboratories Universities Industry R&D Suppliers Vendors Institutional Issues Regulations Incentives Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa End Users School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa Government 56 Driving to a Sustainable Future: Hawaii Can be a Leader • • • • • Environment Energy Economics Equity Education Hawaii HNEINatural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE University of Hawaii at Manoa 57 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa