Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands
Per cent, quarterly averages
Source: The Riksbank
Note. The uncertainty band does not take into account the fact that there may be a lower bound for the repo rate.
Repo rate Forecast 0.9 0.75 0.5 0.5 0.75 0.9
2/15/2004 2.61 2.61
5/15/2004 2.03 2.03
8/15/2004 2.00 2.00
11/15/2004 2.00 2.00
2/15/2005 2.00 2.00
5/15/2005 1.95 1.95
8/15/2005 1.50 1.50
11/15/2005 1.50 1.50
2/15/2006 1.77 1.77
5/15/2006 2.03 2.03
8/15/2006 2.32 2.32
11/15/2006 2.70 2.70
2/15/2007 3.11 3.11
5/15/2007 3.26 3.26
8/15/2007 3.55 3.55
11/15/2007 3.92 3.92
2/15/2008 4.11 4.11
5/15/2008 4.25 4.25
8/15/2008 4.54 4.54
11/15/2008 3.56 3.56
2/15/2009 1.53 1.53
5/15/2009 0.61 0.61 0.61
8/15/2009 0.27 -0.01 0.08 0.09 0.22 0.09 0.08
11/15/2009 0.25 -0.28 0.16 0.16 0.42 0.16 0.16
2/15/2010 0.25 -0.57 0.24 0.25 0.64 0.25 0.24
5/15/2010 0.25 -0.91 0.35 0.36 0.91 0.36 0.35
8/15/2010 0.30 -1.23 0.46 0.47 1.20 0.47 0.46
11/15/2010 0.38 -1.46 0.55 0.56 1.44 0.56 0.55
2/15/2011 0.76 -1.33 0.63 0.64 1.65 0.64 0.63
5/15/2011 1.29 -1.04 0.69 0.72 1.83 0.72 0.69
8/15/2011 1.80 -0.73 0.75 0.78 1.98 0.78 0.75
11/15/2011 2.40 -0.23 0.79 0.81 2.07 0.81 0.79
2/15/2012 3.00 0.28 0.81 0.84 2.14 0.84 0.81
5/15/2012 3.50 0.64 0.85 0.88 2.25 0.88 0.85
8/15/2012 3.95 1.09 0.85 0.88 2.25 0.88 0.85
und for the repo rate.
Figure 2. CPI with uncertainty bands
Annual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The uncertainty band shows the band within which inflation is expected to be with a 50%, 75% and 90% probability. Broke
Outcome Forecast 0.9 0.75 0.5 0.5 0.75 0.9
1/15/2004 0.72 0.72
2/15/2004 -0.40 -0.40
3/15/2004 -0.16 -0.16
4/15/2004 0.22 0.22
5/15/2004 0.58 0.58
6/15/2004 0.42 0.42
7/15/2004 0.62 0.62
8/15/2004 0.53 0.53
9/15/2004 0.53 0.53
10/15/2004 0.76 0.76
11/15/2004 0.39 0.39
12/15/2004 0.28 0.28
1/15/2005 -0.03 -0.03
2/15/2005 0.69 0.69
3/15/2005 0.13 0.13
4/15/2005 0.26 0.26
5/15/2005 0.08 0.08
6/15/2005 0.55 0.55
7/15/2005 0.33 0.33
8/15/2005 0.64 0.64
9/15/2005 0.60 0.60
10/15/2005 0.48 0.48
11/15/2005 0.82 0.82
12/15/2005 0.88 0.88
1/15/2006 0.61 0.61
2/15/2006 0.61 0.61
3/15/2006 1.12 1.12
4/15/2006 1.48 1.48
5/15/2006 1.57 1.57
6/15/2006 1.51 1.51
7/15/2006 1.71 1.71
8/15/2006 1.58 1.58
9/15/2006 1.48 1.48
10/15/2006 1.31 1.31
11/15/2006 1.68 1.68
12/15/2006 1.64 1.64
1/15/2007 1.94 1.94
2/15/2007 1.98 1.98
3/15/2007 1.92 1.92
4/15/2007 1.92 1.92
5/15/2007 1.66 1.66
6/15/2007 1.85 1.85
7/15/2007 1.86 1.86
8/15/2007 1.77 1.77
9/15/2007 2.19 2.19
10/15/2007 2.72 2.72
11/15/2007 3.26 3.26
12/15/2007 3.45 3.45
1/15/2008 3.19 3.19
2/15/2008 3.10 3.10
3/15/2008 3.41 3.41
4/15/2008 3.34 3.34
5/15/2008 3.86 3.86
6/15/2008 4.19 4.19
7/15/2008 4.14 4.14
8/15/2008 4.34 4.34
9/15/2008 4.38 4.38
10/15/2008 3.99 3.99
11/15/2008 2.47 2.47
12/15/2008 0.90 0.90
1/15/2009 1.28 1.28
2/15/2009 0.88 0.88
3/15/2009 0.22 0.22
4/15/2009 -0.07 -0.07
5/15/2009 -0.39 -0.39
6/15/2009 -0.63 -0.63
7/15/2009 -0.89 -0.89 -0.89
8/15/2009 -1.02 -1.51 0.15 0.15 0.39 0.15 0.15
9/15/2009 -1.37 -2.12 0.22 0.23 0.59 0.23 0.22
10/15/2009 -1.41 -2.18 0.23 0.24 0.61 0.24 0.23
11/15/2009 -0.78 -1.61 0.25 0.25 0.65 0.25 0.25
12/15/2009 0.61 -0.29 0.27 0.28 0.70 0.28 0.27
1/15/2010 0.53 -0.47 0.30 0.31 0.78 0.31 0.30
2/15/2010 0.76 -0.22 0.29 0.30 0.77 0.30 0.29
3/15/2010 0.96 -0.05 0.30 0.31 0.79 0.31 0.30
4/15/2010 1.10 0.04 0.32 0.33 0.84 0.33 0.32
5/15/2010 1.17 0.09 0.32 0.33 0.84 0.33 0.32
6/15/2010 0.94 -0.17 0.33 0.34 0.88 0.34 0.33
7/15/2010 1.14 -0.06 0.36 0.37 0.94 0.37 0.36
8/15/2010 1.08 -0.15 0.37 0.38 0.96 0.38 0.37
9/15/2010 1.25 0.01 0.37 0.38 0.98 0.38 0.37
10/15/2010 1.42 0.15 0.38 0.39 1.00 0.39 0.38
11/15/2010 1.63 0.31 0.39 0.41 1.04 0.41 0.39
12/15/2010 1.96 0.62 0.40 0.41 1.05 0.41 0.40
1/15/2011 2.24 0.91 0.40 0.41 1.05 0.41 0.40
2/15/2011 2.46 1.11 0.40 0.42 1.06 0.42 0.40
3/15/2011 2.70 1.34 0.41 0.42 1.07 0.42 0.41
4/15/2011 2.92 1.53 0.42 0.43 1.09 0.43 0.42
5/15/2011 3.11 1.72 0.41 0.43 1.09 0.43 0.41
6/15/2011 3.26 1.88 0.41 0.42 1.08 0.42 0.41
7/15/2011 3.44 2.05 0.42 0.43 1.10 0.43 0.42
8/15/2011 3.62 2.23 0.42 0.43 1.10 0.43 0.42
9/15/2011 3.79 2.40 0.42 0.43 1.10 0.43 0.42
10/15/2011 3.97 2.57 0.42 0.43 1.10 0.43 0.42
11/15/2011 4.12 2.72 0.42 0.43 1.10 0.43 0.42
12/15/2011 4.16 2.77 0.42 0.43 1.10 0.43 0.42
1/15/2012 4.14 2.75 0.42 0.43 1.10 0.43 0.42
2/15/2012 4.16 2.76 0.42 0.43 1.10 0.43 0.42
3/15/2012 4.10 2.71 0.42 0.43 1.10 0.43 0.42
4/15/2012 4.06 2.66 0.42 0.43 1.10 0.43 0.42
5/15/2012 4.01 2.62 0.42 0.43 1.10 0.43 0.42
6/15/2012 3.98 2.58 0.42 0.43 1.10 0.43 0.42
7/15/2012 3.92 2.53 0.42 0.43 1.10 0.43 0.42
8/15/2012 3.86 2.47 0.42 0.43 1.10 0.43 0.42
9/15/2012 3.73 2.34 0.42 0.43 1.10 0.43 0.42
0%, 75% and 90% probability. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 3. GDP with uncertainty bands
Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Outcome Forecast 0.9 0.75 0.5 0.5 0.75 0.9
2/15/2004 2.66 2.66
5/15/2004 4.03 4.03
8/15/2004 3.73 3.73
11/15/2004 3.73 3.73
2/15/2005 3.07 3.07
5/15/2005 2.86 2.86
8/15/2005 3.47 3.47
11/15/2005 3.81 3.81
2/15/2006 4.62 4.62
5/15/2006 4.86 4.86
8/15/2006 4.64 4.64
11/15/2006 4.05 4.05
2/15/2007 3.09 3.09
5/15/2007 2.97 2.97
8/15/2007 2.40 2.40
11/15/2007 2.35 2.35
2/15/2008 2.18 2.18
5/15/2008 1.21 1.21
8/15/2008 0.21 0.21
11/15/2008 -5.10 -5.10
2/15/2009 -6.33 -6.33
5/15/2009 -6.25 -6.25 -6.25
8/15/2009 -5.65 -6.37 0.22 0.22 0.57 0.22 0.22
11/15/2009 -0.35 -1.37 0.30 0.31 0.80 0.31 0.30
2/15/2010 0.94 -0.50 0.43 0.44 1.14 0.44 0.43
5/15/2010 1.45 -0.19 0.49 0.51 1.29 0.51 0.49
8/15/2010 1.85 0.08 0.53 0.55 1.39 0.55 0.53
11/15/2010 2.22 0.30 0.57 0.59 1.51 0.59 0.57
2/15/2011 2.62 0.60 0.60 0.62 1.59 0.62 0.60
5/15/2011 3.05 0.97 0.62 0.64 1.64 0.64 0.62
8/15/2011 3.43 1.30 0.64 0.66 1.68 0.66 0.64
11/15/2011 3.59 1.45 0.64 0.66 1.68 0.66 0.64
2/15/2012 3.65 1.52 0.64 0.66 1.68 0.66 0.64
5/15/2012 3.64 1.50 0.64 0.66 1.68 0.66 0.64
8/15/2012 3.59 1.45 0.64 0.66 1.68 0.66 0.64
Figure 4. GDP
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
September July
2/15/2000 3.50 3.50
5/15/2000 7.44 7.45
8/15/2000 2.24 2.24
11/15/2000 -0.17 -0.17
2/15/2001 0.39 0.39
5/15/2001 -0.01 -0.01
8/15/2001 1.75 1.75
11/15/2001 3.58 3.57
2/15/2002 1.33 1.33
5/15/2002 5.35 5.35
8/15/2002 0.37 0.37
11/15/2002 2.41 2.41
2/15/2003 3.40 3.40
5/15/2003 -1.51 -1.50
8/15/2003 4.05 4.05
11/15/2003 2.63 2.63
2/15/2004 5.62 5.61
5/15/2004 3.84 3.84
8/15/2004 2.87 2.86
11/15/2004 2.62 2.62
2/15/2005 2.95 2.95
5/15/2005 2.99 2.99
8/15/2005 5.35 5.35
11/15/2005 3.96 3.96
2/15/2006 6.21 6.20
5/15/2006 3.95 3.97
8/15/2006 4.44 4.42
11/15/2006 1.64 1.63
2/15/2007 2.37 2.35
5/15/2007 3.44 3.51
8/15/2007 2.14 2.10
11/15/2007 1.45 1.42
2/15/2008 1.70 1.62
5/15/2008 -0.42 -0.16
8/15/2008 -1.87 -1.98
11/15/2008 -18.40 -18.52
2/15/2009 -3.45 -3.62 -3.62
5/15/2009 -0.10 -0.10 -1.15
8/15/2009 0.69 -0.36
11/15/2009 1.53 0.37
2/15/2010 1.66 1.22
5/15/2010 1.93 1.84
8/15/2010 2.29 2.30
11/15/2010 3.00 2.93
2/15/2011 3.27 3.25
5/15/2011 3.65 3.47
8/15/2011 3.80 3.61
11/15/2011 3.62 3.52
2/15/2012 3.54 3.44
5/15/2012 3.58 3.48
8/15/2012 3.60 3.50
Figure 5. Unemployed
Percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast, 15-74 years. Pre-1993 data has been spliced by the Riksbank.
Unemployment, 16-64 years Unemployment, 15-74 years September July
2/15/1980 2.47
5/15/1980 2.63
8/15/1980 2.46
11/15/1980 2.74
2/15/1981 2.87
5/15/1981 2.94
8/15/1981 3.31
11/15/1981 3.84
2/15/1982 3.97
5/15/1982 4.08
8/15/1982 4.41
11/15/1982 4.18
2/15/1983 4.42
5/15/1983 4.68
8/15/1983 4.72
11/15/1983 4.55
2/15/1984 4.28
5/15/1984 4.21
8/15/1984 3.89
11/15/1984 3.90
2/15/1985 3.76
5/15/1985 3.75
8/15/1985 3.48
11/15/1985 3.43
2/15/1986 3.52
5/15/1986 3.33
8/15/1986 3.17
11/15/1986 3.31
2/15/1987 2.87
5/15/1987 2.77
8/15/1987 2.63
11/15/1987 2.35
2/15/1988 2.32
5/15/1988 2.19
8/15/1988 2.21
11/15/1988 1.97
2/15/1989 1.95
5/15/1989 1.85
8/15/1989 1.79
11/15/1989 1.92
2/15/1990 1.83
5/15/1990 1.76
8/15/1990 2.15
11/15/1990 2.61
2/15/1991 3.03
5/15/1991 3.35
8/15/1991 4.00
11/15/1991 4.72
2/15/1992 5.60
5/15/1992 6.43
8/15/1992 7.01
11/15/1992 7.90
2/15/1993 9.10
5/15/1993 11.37
8/15/1993 11.45
11/15/1993 11.76
2/15/1994 11.60
5/15/1994 11.50
8/15/1994 11.16
11/15/1994 10.91
2/15/1995 10.70
5/15/1995 10.56
8/15/1995 10.37
11/15/1995 10.89
2/15/1996 11.01
5/15/1996 11.50
8/15/1996 11.84
11/15/1996 12.01
2/15/1997 12.35
5/15/1997 12.31
8/15/1997 11.92
11/15/1997 10.89
2/15/1998 10.30
5/15/1998 10.10
8/15/1998 9.78
11/15/1998 9.14
2/15/1999 8.74
5/15/1999 8.31
8/15/1999 8.36
11/15/1999 7.79
2/15/2000 7.42
5/15/2000 7.07
8/15/2000 6.74
11/15/2000 6.23
2/15/2001 6.07 6.07
5/15/2001 5.79 5.79
8/15/2001 5.78 5.80
11/15/2001 6.03 5.97
2/15/2002 6.04 6.04
5/15/2002 5.96 5.98
8/15/2002 6.14 6.12
11/15/2002 6.28 6.26
2/15/2003 6.46 6.47
5/15/2003 6.55 6.62
8/15/2003 6.73 6.90
11/15/2003 7.42 7.35
2/15/2004 7.64 7.66
5/15/2004 7.72 7.79
8/15/2004 7.80 7.84
11/15/2004 7.68 7.67
2/15/2005 7.62 7.60
5/15/2005 7.87 7.81
8/15/2005 7.68 7.76
11/15/2005 7.66 7.75
2/15/2006 7.46 7.52
5/15/2006 7.30 7.23
8/15/2006 6.84 6.87
11/15/2006 6.56 6.56
2/15/2007 6.46 6.46
5/15/2007 6.21 6.14
8/15/2007 6.04 5.98
11/15/2007 5.95 6.01
2/15/2008 5.87 5.94
5/15/2008 5.90 6.09
8/15/2008 6.13 6.20
11/15/2008 6.70 6.73
2/15/2009 7.56 7.48
5/15/2009 8.39 8.16 8.16 8.37
8/15/2009 9.05 9.24
11/15/2009 9.86 10.13
2/15/2010 10.38 10.57
5/15/2010 10.74 10.92
8/15/2010 10.95 11.13
11/15/2010 11.04 11.22
2/15/2011 11.01 11.19
5/15/2011 10.89 11.08
8/15/2011 10.66 10.84
11/15/2011 10.43 10.61
2/15/2012 10.17 10.35
5/15/2012 9.90 10.08
8/15/2012 9.63 9.81
spliced by the Riksbank.
Figure 6. Labour force and number of employed
Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast, 15-74 year. Pre-1993 data has been spliced by the Riksbank.
Employed, 16-64 years Labour force, 16-64 years Employed, 15-74 years
2/15/1980 4167.15 4272.86
5/15/1980 4173.78 4286.50
8/15/1980 4169.30 4274.36
11/15/1980 4173.28 4290.71
2/15/1981 4192.91 4316.85
5/15/1981 4146.53 4272.19
8/15/1981 4174.75 4317.58
11/15/1981 4155.45 4321.20
2/15/1982 4154.66 4326.64
5/15/1982 4166.24 4343.40
8/15/1982 4157.54 4349.13
11/15/1982 4166.69 4348.61
2/15/1983 4168.66 4361.55
5/15/1983 4177.46 4382.50
8/15/1983 4163.63 4369.76
11/15/1983 4173.52 4372.63
2/15/1984 4182.96 4370.22
5/15/1984 4179.09 4362.79
8/15/1984 4227.51 4398.65
11/15/1984 4235.45 4407.19
2/15/1985 4245.02 4410.84
5/15/1985 4223.68 4388.44
8/15/1985 4267.27 4421.34
11/15/1985 4274.45 4426.04
2/15/1986 4279.16 4435.49
5/15/1986 4265.25 4412.10
8/15/1986 4282.40 4422.59
11/15/1986 4286.62 4433.14
2/15/1987 4298.64 4425.86
5/15/1987 4330.91 4454.21
8/15/1987 4330.38 4447.41
11/15/1987 4350.03 4454.74
2/15/1988 4363.90 4467.50
5/15/1988 4382.20 4480.18
8/15/1988 4391.01 4490.04
11/15/1988 4411.41 4500.27
2/15/1989 4423.32 4511.15
5/15/1989 4447.23 4531.20
8/15/1989 4463.60 4544.87
11/15/1989 4481.23 4569.08
2/15/1990 4504.84 4588.80
5/15/1990 4501.40 4582.04
8/15/1990 4496.98 4596.00
11/15/1990 4486.09 4606.26
2/15/1991 4471.78 4611.30
5/15/1991 4439.16 4593.25
8/15/1991 4385.26 4568.15
11/15/1991 4335.85 4550.62
2/15/1992 4287.88 4542.07
5/15/1992 4265.12 4558.46
8/15/1992 4195.46 4511.93
11/15/1992 4133.10 4487.75
2/15/1993 4057.94 4464.31
5/15/1993 3973.34 4482.91
8/15/1993 3940.70 4450.20
11/15/1993 3926.06 4449.09
2/15/1994 3923.46 4438.16
5/15/1994 3943.15 4455.54
8/15/1994 3952.55 4448.92
11/15/1994 3968.23 4454.42
2/15/1995 3983.99 4461.16
5/15/1995 4018.09 4492.47
8/15/1995 4016.07 4480.58
11/15/1995 3995.65 4483.80
2/15/1996 4009.40 4505.46
5/15/1996 3979.90 4497.22
8/15/1996 3971.67 4505.23
11/15/1996 3965.99 4507.29
2/15/1997 3939.88 4495.14
5/15/1997 3931.98 4484.06
8/15/1997 3950.96 4485.64
11/15/1997 3957.71 4441.31
2/15/1998 3976.17 4432.75
5/15/1998 3989.45 4437.49
8/15/1998 4022.65 4458.84
11/15/1998 4054.71 4462.59
2/15/1999 4081.12 4472.17
5/15/1999 4109.61 4482.02
8/15/1999 4099.44 4473.45
11/15/1999 4115.61 4463.46
2/15/2000 4139.70 4471.59
5/15/2000 4192.84 4511.67
8/15/2000 4193.47 4496.30
11/15/2000 4244.99 4527.18
2/15/2001 4271.14 4547.06 4348.42
5/15/2001 4274.17 4536.97 4367.89
8/15/2001 4278.99 4541.72 4371.28
11/15/2001 4278.71 4553.13 4367.93
2/15/2002 4285.68 4561.16 4378.75
5/15/2002 4285.13 4556.57 4378.94
8/15/2002 4281.00 4561.01 4373.32
11/15/2002 4280.82 4567.78 4376.24
2/15/2003 4271.87 4566.83 4370.42
5/15/2003 4283.57 4583.84 4375.55
8/15/2003 4259.97 4567.56 4354.19
11/15/2003 4246.41 4586.70 4341.34
2/15/2004 4237.73 4588.50 4335.01
5/15/2004 4242.02 4596.97 4333.91
8/15/2004 4244.97 4604.26 4341.28
11/15/2004 4242.55 4595.56 4337.96
2/15/2005 4245.12 4595.11 4341.17
5/15/2005 4254.69 4618.14 4341.87
8/15/2005 4264.43 4619.34 4346.03
11/15/2005 4284.89 4640.38 4373.57
2/15/2006 4301.95 4648.84 4379.47
5/15/2006 4317.62 4657.83 4408.61
8/15/2006 4359.64 4679.95 4453.42
11/15/2006 4382.43 4690.10 4474.56
2/15/2007 4407.85 4712.33 4505.27
5/15/2007 4433.77 4727.36 4526.28
8/15/2007 4465.15 4752.26 4558.34
11/15/2007 4470.39 4753.03 4571.50
2/15/2008 4492.56 4772.73 4595.22
5/15/2008 4496.53 4778.41 4607.01
8/15/2008 4488.58 4781.82 4592.38
11/15/2008 4458.57 4778.80 4577.01
2/15/2009 4426.38 4788.26 4539.42
5/15/2009 4395.77 4798.19 4508.23 4508.23
8/15/2009 4460.16
11/15/2009 4415.99
2/15/2010 4380.66
5/15/2010 4354.38
8/15/2010 4336.96
11/15/2010 4328.28
2/15/2011 4326.99
5/15/2011 4331.31
8/15/2011 4341.71
11/15/2011 4353.43
2/15/2012 4366.49
5/15/2012 4379.59
8/15/2012 4392.73
en spliced by the Riksbank.
Labour force, 15-74 years
4629.53
4636.58
4640.33
4645.26
4660.03
4657.58
4658.57
4668.67
4672.53
4685.74
4676.84
4685.88
4694.77
4699.84
4710.48
4698.30
4698.07
4709.70
4711.77
4740.93
4735.65
4752.34
4782.11
4788.76
4816.40
4822.40
4848.37
4863.91
4885.36
4905.95
4896.02
4907.44
4906.54
4908.87 4908.87
4903.77
4898.99
4888.21
4878.43
4870.14
4865.27
4862.35
4860.89
4859.71
4860.20
4860.68
4860.68
4860.68
Figure 7. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energy
Annual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. CPIF is CPI inflation excluding household mortgage interest expenditure. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
CPI CPIF CPIF excluding energy
1/15/2000 0.45 0.96 0.53
2/15/2000 0.93 1.31 0.61
3/15/2000 1.03 1.27 0.52
4/15/2000 0.72 0.86 0.37
5/15/2000 1.01 1.11 0.48
6/15/2000 0.84 0.94 0.16
7/15/2000 0.80 0.87 0.22
8/15/2000 0.87 0.91 0.50
9/15/2000 0.87 0.91 0.27
10/15/2000 0.97 1.00 0.34
11/15/2000 1.31 1.34 0.62
12/15/2000 0.98 0.99 0.70
1/15/2001 1.50 1.50 0.99
2/15/2001 1.39 1.45 1.04
3/15/2001 1.66 1.77 1.54
4/15/2001 2.63 2.74 1.95
5/15/2001 2.84 2.93 2.07
6/15/2001 2.71 2.76 2.24
7/15/2001 2.67 2.65 2.24
8/15/2001 2.85 2.82 2.29
9/15/2001 2.99 2.91 2.49
10/15/2001 2.49 2.60 2.55
11/15/2001 2.47 2.56 2.59
12/15/2001 2.66 2.78 2.65
1/15/2002 2.71 2.91 2.87
2/15/2002 2.59 2.81 2.88
3/15/2002 2.71 2.89 2.77
4/15/2002 2.27 2.33 2.36
5/15/2002 1.84 1.79 2.17
6/15/2002 1.84 1.79 2.14
7/15/2002 2.00 2.01 2.16
8/15/2002 1.80 1.86 2.00
9/15/2002 1.72 1.79 2.00
10/15/2002 2.33 2.21 2.04
11/15/2002 2.04 1.93 1.81
12/15/2002 2.08 2.16 1.76
1/15/2003 2.66 2.78 1.76
2/15/2003 3.32 3.45 1.92
3/15/2003 2.97 3.13 1.81
4/15/2003 2.16 2.54 1.82
5/15/2003 1.78 2.23 1.52
6/15/2003 1.65 2.30 1.46
7/15/2003 1.66 2.49 1.64
8/15/2003 1.57 2.40 1.52
9/15/2003 1.53 2.37 1.74
10/15/2003 1.27 2.09 1.39
11/15/2003 1.31 2.13 1.27
12/15/2003 1.27 1.91 1.21
1/15/2004 0.72 1.33 1.15
2/15/2004 -0.40 0.30 0.75
3/15/2004 -0.16 0.59 0.83
4/15/2004 0.22 1.11 0.94
5/15/2004 0.58 1.54 1.05
6/15/2004 0.42 1.22 0.99
7/15/2004 0.62 1.25 0.85
8/15/2004 0.53 1.17 0.84
9/15/2004 0.53 1.19 0.75
10/15/2004 0.76 1.44 0.89
11/15/2004 0.39 1.08 0.79
12/15/2004 0.28 1.00 0.84
1/15/2005 -0.03 0.75 0.71
2/15/2005 0.69 1.39 1.16
3/15/2005 0.13 0.81 0.59
4/15/2005 0.26 0.71 0.35
5/15/2005 0.08 0.51 0.44
6/15/2005 0.55 1.01 0.46
7/15/2005 0.33 1.05 0.43
8/15/2005 0.64 1.36 0.60
9/15/2005 0.60 1.33 0.53
10/15/2005 0.48 1.23 0.63
11/15/2005 0.82 1.55 0.91
12/15/2005 0.88 1.61 0.77
1/15/2006 0.61 1.24 0.45
2/15/2006 0.61 1.09 0.46
3/15/2006 1.12 1.46 0.76
4/15/2006 1.48 1.79 0.93
5/15/2006 1.57 1.86 0.93
6/15/2006 1.51 1.81 0.96
7/15/2006 1.71 1.60 1.04
8/15/2006 1.58 1.44 0.88
9/15/2006 1.48 1.20 0.97
10/15/2006 1.31 0.98 0.73
11/15/2006 1.68 1.25 0.71
12/15/2006 1.64 1.18 0.76
1/15/2007 1.94 1.38 1.29
2/15/2007 1.98 1.45 1.21
3/15/2007 1.92 1.39 1.28
4/15/2007 1.92 1.35 1.51
5/15/2007 1.66 1.04 1.30
6/15/2007 1.85 1.14 1.53
7/15/2007 1.86 1.17 1.66
8/15/2007 1.77 1.02 1.74
9/15/2007 2.19 1.32 1.62
10/15/2007 2.72 1.82 2.14
11/15/2007 3.26 2.33 2.35
12/15/2007 3.45 2.42 2.40
1/15/2008 3.19 2.35 1.81
2/15/2008 3.10 2.29 1.78
3/15/2008 3.41 2.59 2.16
4/15/2008 3.34 2.53 2.04
5/15/2008 3.86 3.04 2.30
6/15/2008 4.19 3.30 2.18
7/15/2008 4.14 3.15 1.82
8/15/2008 4.34 3.37 2.06
9/15/2008 4.38 3.50 2.12
10/15/2008 3.99 2.82 1.88
11/15/2008 2.47 1.85 1.66
12/15/2008 0.90 1.61 1.69
1/15/2009 1.28 2.15 2.39
2/15/2009 0.88 2.31 2.51
3/15/2009 0.22 1.95 2.14
4/15/2009 -0.07 1.84 2.09
5/15/2009 -0.39 1.68 2.01
6/15/2009 -0.63 1.52 1.93
7/15/2009 -0.89 -0.89 1.75 1.75 2.62 2.62
8/15/2009 -1.02 1.75 2.39
9/15/2009 -1.37 1.54 2.36
10/15/2009 -1.41 1.85 2.28
11/15/2009 -0.78 2.11 2.20
12/15/2009 0.61 2.32 2.17
1/15/2010 0.53 2.05 1.94
2/15/2010 0.76 1.78 1.77
3/15/2010 0.96 1.81 1.81
4/15/2010 1.10 1.81 1.86
5/15/2010 1.17 1.73 1.94
6/15/2010 0.94 1.52 2.07
7/15/2010 1.14 1.42 1.69
8/15/2010 1.08 1.26 1.59
9/15/2010 1.25 1.38 1.66
10/15/2010 1.42 1.49 1.69
11/15/2010 1.63 1.63 1.73
12/15/2010 1.96 1.77 1.77
1/15/2011 2.24 1.83 1.79
2/15/2011 2.46 1.87 1.81
3/15/2011 2.70 1.90 1.82
4/15/2011 2.92 1.91 1.84
5/15/2011 3.11 1.90 1.82
6/15/2011 3.26 1.89 1.81
7/15/2011 3.44 1.91 1.83
8/15/2011 3.62 1.94 1.85
9/15/2011 3.79 1.96 1.86
10/15/2011 3.97 1.99 1.89
11/15/2011 4.12 2.01 1.92
12/15/2011 4.16 2.06 1.97
1/15/2012 4.14 2.08 1.99
2/15/2012 4.16 2.11 2.02
3/15/2012 4.10 2.13 2.04
4/15/2012 4.06 2.15 2.07
5/15/2012 4.01 2.17 2.09
6/15/2012 3.98 2.20 2.12
7/15/2012 3.92 2.20 2.12
8/15/2012 3.86 2.21 2.13
9/15/2012 3.73 2.21 2.14
es represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 8. Real repo rate
Per cent, quarterly averages
Source: The Riksbank
Note. The real repo rate is calculated as an average of the Riksbank’s repo rate forecasts for the coming year minus the inflatio
September July
2/15/2004 1.32 1.32
5/15/2004 1.03 1.03
8/15/2004 1.14 1.14
11/15/2004 0.65 0.65
2/15/2005 1.01 1.01
5/15/2005 0.84 0.84
8/15/2005 0.44 0.44
11/15/2005 0.90 0.90
2/15/2006 0.89 0.89
5/15/2006 0.95 0.95
8/15/2006 1.11 1.11
11/15/2006 1.96 1.96
2/15/2007 1.98 1.98
5/15/2007 1.85 1.85
8/15/2007 2.01 2.01
11/15/2007 1.53 1.53
2/15/2008 2.04 2.04
5/15/2008 1.71 1.71
8/15/2008 2.09 2.09
11/15/2008 0.75 0.75
2/15/2009 -0.73 -0.73 -0.73
5/15/2009 -1.27 -1.27 -1.61
8/15/2009 -1.13 -1.38
11/15/2009 -1.36 -1.54
2/15/2010 -1.55 -1.57
5/15/2010 -1.49 -1.54
8/15/2010 -1.28 -1.33
11/15/2010 -0.96 -0.98
2/15/2011 -0.53 -0.54
5/15/2011 -0.05 -0.04
8/15/2011 0.45 0.48
ming year minus the inflation forecast (CPIF) for the corresponding period. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
ksbank’s forecast.
Figure 9. TCW-weighted exchange rate
Index, 18.11.92 = 100
Source: The Riksbank
Note. Outcome data are daily rates up to 26th of August 2009; forecasts are quarterly averages. Broken lines represent the Rik
September September July
1/1/2004 124.41 5/15/2009 142.50
1/2/2004 123.99 8/15/2009 136.50 140.28
1/5/2004 124.45 11/15/2009 133.50 138.75
1/6/2004 124.83 2/15/2010 132.14 137.00
1/7/2004 124.71 5/15/2010 131.11 135.04
1/8/2004 124.67 8/15/2010 130.25 133.95
1/9/2004 124.60 11/15/2010 129.99 133.26
1/12/2004 124.68 2/15/2011 129.67 132.91
1/13/2004 125.06 5/15/2011 129.50 132.60
1/14/2004 125.95 8/15/2011 129.37 132.29
1/15/2004 125.92 11/15/2011 129.43 131.82
1/16/2004 126.36 2/15/2012 129.62 131.55
1/19/2004 126.24 5/15/2012 129.66 131.20
1/20/2004 125.71 8/15/2012 129.70 131.00
1/21/2004 125.37
1/22/2004 124.80
1/23/2004 125.40
1/26/2004 125.82
1/27/2004 125.79
1/28/2004 125.55
1/29/2004 126.09
1/30/2004 126.46
2/2/2004 126.78
2/3/2004 126.19
2/4/2004 126.20
2/5/2004 126.21
2/6/2004 125.21
2/9/2004 124.87
2/10/2004 125.06
2/11/2004 125.01
2/12/2004 125.42
2/13/2004 125.11
2/16/2004 125.86
2/17/2004 126.06
2/18/2004 125.90
2/19/2004 125.97
2/20/2004 125.95
2/23/2004 126.17
2/24/2004 126.30
2/25/2004 126.83
2/26/2004 126.98
2/27/2004 126.99
3/1/2004 127.37
3/2/2004 127.57
3/3/2004 128.05
3/4/2004 127.43
3/5/2004 126.41
3/8/2004 126.27
3/9/2004 126.16
3/10/2004 126.32
3/11/2004 126.84
3/12/2004 127.33
3/15/2004 127.56
3/16/2004 127.37
3/17/2004 127.88
3/18/2004 128.06
3/19/2004 127.82
3/22/2004 127.47
3/23/2004 127.71
3/24/2004 128.74
3/25/2004 128.78
3/26/2004 128.63
3/29/2004 128.69
3/30/2004 128.50
3/31/2004 128.54
4/1/2004 127.97
4/2/2004 128.17
4/5/2004 128.05
4/6/2004 128.36
4/7/2004 127.75
4/8/2004 127.50
4/9/2004
4/12/2004 127.83
4/13/2004 127.74
4/14/2004 127.99
4/15/2004 127.83
4/16/2004 128.02
4/19/2004 128.14
4/20/2004 127.87
4/21/2004 127.62
4/22/2004 127.23
4/23/2004 127.33
4/26/2004 127.07
4/27/2004 127.00
4/28/2004 127.05
4/29/2004 126.93
4/30/2004 126.93
5/3/2004 127.14
5/4/2004 126.89
5/5/2004 126.73
5/6/2004 126.32
5/7/2004 126.38
5/10/2004 127.35
5/11/2004 127.64
5/12/2004 127.26
5/13/2004 127.05
5/14/2004 127.18
5/17/2004 127.14
5/18/2004 126.51
5/19/2004 126.45
5/20/2004 126.13
5/21/2004 126.17
5/24/2004 126.25
5/25/2004 126.76
5/26/2004 126.27
5/27/2004 125.92
5/28/2004 126.17
5/31/2004 126.18
6/1/2004 126.56
6/2/2004 126.60
6/3/2004 126.80
6/4/2004 126.69
6/7/2004 126.43
6/8/2004 126.20
6/9/2004 126.43
6/10/2004 127.62
6/11/2004 127.37
6/14/2004 127.37
6/15/2004 127.12
6/16/2004 127.35
6/17/2004 127.52
6/18/2004 127.27
6/21/2004 127.19
6/22/2004 127.38
6/23/2004 127.67
6/24/2004 127.44
6/25/2004 127.16
6/28/2004 126.89
6/29/2004 126.68
6/30/2004 126.81
7/1/2004 127.11
7/2/2004 126.97
7/5/2004 127.05
7/6/2004 127.23
7/7/2004 126.93
7/8/2004 126.87
7/9/2004 127.01
7/12/2004 127.34
7/13/2004 127.32
7/14/2004 127.18
7/15/2004 127.04
7/16/2004 127.22
7/19/2004 127.18
7/20/2004 127.30
7/21/2004 127.03
7/22/2004 127.29
7/23/2004 127.65
7/26/2004 127.71
7/27/2004 127.58
7/28/2004 128.22
7/29/2004 128.17
7/30/2004 128.18
8/2/2004 128.11
8/3/2004 127.92
8/4/2004 127.93
8/5/2004 127.63
8/6/2004 127.37
8/9/2004 127.10
8/10/2004 127.06
8/11/2004 127.42
8/12/2004 127.44
8/13/2004 127.53
8/16/2004 127.76
8/17/2004 127.64
8/18/2004 127.60
8/19/2004 127.41
8/20/2004 127.37
8/23/2004 127.16
8/24/2004 127.03
8/25/2004 127.08
8/26/2004 126.75
8/27/2004 126.65
8/30/2004 126.69
8/31/2004 126.60
9/1/2004 126.49
9/2/2004 126.32
9/3/2004 126.56
9/6/2004 126.63
9/7/2004 126.51
9/8/2004 126.27
9/9/2004 126.15
9/10/2004 125.67
9/13/2004 125.64
9/14/2004 125.71
9/15/2004 126.01
9/16/2004 126.31
9/17/2004 125.77
9/20/2004 125.34
9/21/2004 124.91
9/22/2004 125.05
9/23/2004 124.73
9/24/2004 124.79
9/27/2004 125.03
9/28/2004 124.99
9/29/2004 124.82
9/30/2004 124.76
10/1/2004 124.11
10/4/2004 124.70
10/5/2004 124.63
10/6/2004 124.63
10/7/2004 124.71
10/8/2004 124.88
10/11/2004 124.87
10/12/2004 125.11
10/13/2004 125.29
10/14/2004 125.54
10/15/2004 125.39
10/18/2004 125.10
10/19/2004 124.92
10/20/2004 124.79
10/21/2004 124.97
10/22/2004 125.14
10/25/2004 124.63
10/26/2004 124.05
10/27/2004 123.87
10/28/2004 124.29
10/29/2004 124.39
11/1/2004 124.36
11/2/2004 124.67
11/3/2004 124.50
11/4/2004 124.72
11/5/2004 124.87
11/8/2004 124.75
11/9/2004 124.97
11/10/2004 124.28
11/11/2004 123.56
11/12/2004 122.94
11/15/2004 122.88
11/16/2004 122.88
11/17/2004 122.99
11/18/2004 122.83
11/19/2004 122.89
11/22/2004 122.88
11/23/2004 122.78
11/24/2004 122.28
11/25/2004 122.12
11/26/2004 121.99
11/29/2004 121.84
11/30/2004 122.13
12/1/2004 122.31
12/2/2004 122.69
12/3/2004 121.96
12/6/2004 121.49
12/7/2004 121.68
12/8/2004 122.59
12/9/2004 122.70
12/10/2004 122.90
12/13/2004 122.46
12/14/2004 122.27
12/15/2004 122.72
12/16/2004 122.54
12/17/2004 122.77
12/20/2004 122.18
12/21/2004 122.18
12/22/2004 122.66
12/23/2004 122.85
12/24/2004 122.68
12/27/2004 122.49
12/28/2004 121.94
12/29/2004 121.73
12/30/2004 122.32
12/31/2004 122.52
1/3/2005 122.37
1/4/2005 122.89
1/5/2005 123.13
1/6/2005 123.14
1/7/2005 123.20
1/10/2005 123.55
1/11/2005 123.39
1/12/2005 123.60
1/13/2005 123.51
1/14/2005 123.72
1/17/2005 123.79
1/18/2005 123.81
1/19/2005 123.84
1/20/2005 123.91
1/21/2005 124.18
1/24/2005 124.12
1/25/2005 124.27
1/26/2005 124.46
1/27/2005 124.41
1/28/2005 124.56
1/31/2005 124.74
2/1/2005 124.54
2/2/2005 124.20
2/3/2005 124.36
2/4/2005 124.48
2/7/2005 124.67
2/8/2005 124.65
2/9/2005 124.48
2/10/2005 124.61
2/11/2005 124.67
2/14/2005 124.53
2/15/2005 124.33
2/16/2005 124.19
2/17/2005 124.53
2/18/2005 124.42
2/21/2005 124.75
2/22/2005 124.22
2/23/2005 124.35
2/24/2005 123.86
2/25/2005 124.04
2/28/2005 123.80
3/1/2005 123.80
3/2/2005 124.30
3/3/2005 123.86
3/4/2005 123.72
3/7/2005 123.45
3/8/2005 123.41
3/9/2005 123.51
3/10/2005 123.62
3/11/2005 123.52
3/14/2005 123.76
3/15/2005 124.16
3/16/2005 123.88
3/17/2005 124.08
3/18/2005 124.49
3/21/2005 124.88
3/22/2005 124.84
3/23/2005 124.79
3/24/2005 124.72
3/25/2005 124.70
3/28/2005 124.70
3/29/2005 125.12
3/30/2005 125.18
3/31/2005 125.40
4/1/2005 125.60
4/4/2005 125.97
4/5/2005 126.03
4/6/2005 125.71
4/7/2005 125.48
4/8/2005 125.77
4/11/2005 125.51
4/12/2005 125.49
4/13/2005 125.65
4/14/2005 126.04
4/15/2005 125.87
4/18/2005 125.88
4/19/2005 126.06
4/20/2005 125.90
4/21/2005 125.79
4/22/2005 125.79
4/25/2005 125.60
4/26/2005 125.52
4/27/2005 125.64
4/28/2005 125.91
4/29/2005 126.29
5/2/2005 126.72
5/3/2005 126.86
5/4/2005 126.18
5/5/2005 126.06
5/6/2005 126.22
5/9/2005 126.27
5/10/2005 126.62
5/11/2005 126.73
5/12/2005 126.98
5/13/2005 127.04
5/16/2005 127.08
5/17/2005 126.85
5/18/2005 126.92
5/19/2005 126.75
5/20/2005 126.49
5/23/2005 126.53
5/24/2005 126.53
5/25/2005 126.49
5/26/2005 126.97
5/27/2005 126.85
5/30/2005 126.91
5/31/2005 126.97
6/1/2005 126.99
6/2/2005 127.19
6/3/2005 126.99
6/6/2005 127.10
6/7/2005 127.25
6/8/2005 127.81
6/9/2005 128.05
6/10/2005 128.50
6/13/2005 129.44
6/14/2005 129.55
6/15/2005 129.32
6/16/2005 129.45
6/17/2005 128.54
6/20/2005 128.65
6/21/2005 128.90
6/22/2005 129.62
6/23/2005 130.85
6/24/2005 131.02
6/27/2005 130.78
6/28/2005 130.94
6/29/2005 131.61
6/30/2005 131.72
7/1/2005 131.93
7/4/2005 132.09
7/5/2005 131.45
7/6/2005 130.73
7/7/2005 131.10
7/8/2005 131.13
7/11/2005 131.69
7/12/2005 131.02
7/13/2005 130.03
7/14/2005 130.37
7/15/2005 130.37
7/18/2005 130.09
7/19/2005 130.70
7/20/2005 130.86
7/21/2005 131.12
7/22/2005 130.73
7/25/2005 130.56
7/26/2005 131.19
7/27/2005 131.08
7/28/2005 130.43
7/29/2005 130.52
8/1/2005 130.15
8/2/2005 129.99
8/3/2005 129.86
8/4/2005 129.06
8/5/2005 128.83
8/8/2005 128.88
8/9/2005 129.14
8/10/2005 129.20
8/11/2005 128.80
8/12/2005 128.72
8/15/2005 128.72
8/16/2005 129.11
8/17/2005 129.33
8/18/2005 129.43
8/19/2005 129.92
8/22/2005 129.97
8/23/2005 129.77
8/24/2005 129.40
8/25/2005 129.52
8/26/2005 129.12
8/29/2005 129.29
8/30/2005 129.52
8/31/2005 129.43
9/1/2005 129.28
9/2/2005 128.28
9/5/2005 128.65
9/6/2005 128.88
9/7/2005 129.08
9/8/2005 129.25
9/9/2005 129.38
9/12/2005 129.12
9/13/2005 129.55
9/14/2005 129.74
9/15/2005 129.76
9/16/2005 129.78
9/19/2005 129.92
9/20/2005 129.93
9/21/2005 129.83
9/22/2005 129.94
9/23/2005 130.43
9/26/2005 130.45
9/27/2005 130.64
9/28/2005 130.52
9/29/2005 130.03
9/30/2005 129.56
10/3/2005 129.71
10/4/2005 129.65
10/5/2005 129.57
10/6/2005 129.24
10/7/2005 129.58
10/10/2005 129.74
10/11/2005 129.63
10/12/2005 129.88
10/13/2005 130.60
10/14/2005 131.30
10/17/2005 131.47
10/18/2005 131.55
10/19/2005 131.59
10/20/2005 131.88
10/21/2005 131.91
10/24/2005 132.85
10/25/2005 132.03
10/26/2005 131.97
10/27/2005 132.02
10/28/2005 132.30
10/31/2005 132.69
11/1/2005 133.31
11/2/2005 133.65
11/3/2005 133.80
11/4/2005 133.54
11/7/2005 133.90
11/8/2005 133.18
11/9/2005 133.77
11/10/2005 134.45
11/11/2005 133.82
11/14/2005 133.45
11/15/2005 134.32
11/16/2005 134.10
11/17/2005 134.26
11/18/2005 133.59
11/21/2005 132.95
11/22/2005 133.16
11/23/2005 132.39
11/24/2005 132.27
11/25/2005 131.70
11/28/2005 131.65
11/29/2005 132.07
11/30/2005 132.40
12/1/2005 132.27
12/2/2005 131.38
12/5/2005 131.54
12/6/2005 130.46
12/7/2005 130.98
12/8/2005 131.36
12/9/2005 131.37
12/12/2005 131.27
12/13/2005 131.32
12/14/2005 131.06
12/15/2005 131.06
12/16/2005 131.46
12/19/2005 130.86
12/20/2005 130.85
12/21/2005 131.11
12/22/2005 131.59
12/23/2005 131.43
12/26/2005 131.40
12/27/2005 131.64
12/28/2005 130.52
12/29/2005
12/30/2005 130.50
1/2/2006 130.90
1/3/2006 129.83
1/4/2006 129.51
1/5/2006 129.20
1/6/2006 128.98
1/9/2006 129.32
1/10/2006 129.85
1/11/2006 129.48
1/12/2006 129.39
1/13/2006 129.37
1/16/2006 129.32
1/17/2006 129.11
1/18/2006 128.88
1/19/2006 129.35
1/20/2006 128.84
1/23/2006 128.04
1/24/2006 128.11
1/25/2006 127.99
1/26/2006 127.81
1/27/2006 127.82
1/30/2006 127.84
1/31/2006 128.04
2/1/2006 128.08
2/2/2006 128.60
2/3/2006 128.62
2/6/2006 128.80
2/7/2006 129.04
2/8/2006 128.38
2/9/2006 128.28
2/10/2006 128.46
2/13/2006 129.70
2/14/2006 129.46
2/15/2006 129.31
2/16/2006 130.24
2/17/2006 129.87
2/20/2006 129.82
2/21/2006 130.24
2/22/2006 130.17
2/23/2006 130.58
2/24/2006 130.77
2/27/2006 131.34
2/28/2006 131.30
3/1/2006 131.26
3/2/2006 131.40
3/3/2006 131.10
3/6/2006 131.01
3/7/2006 131.45
3/8/2006 131.25
3/9/2006 130.71
3/10/2006 130.06
3/13/2006 130.11
3/14/2006 129.96
3/15/2006 129.96
3/16/2006 129.42
3/17/2006 128.93
3/20/2006 128.99
3/21/2006 129.53
3/22/2006 129.62
3/23/2006 129.28
3/24/2006 129.72
3/27/2006 129.45
3/28/2006 129.68
3/29/2006 130.38
3/30/2006 130.11
3/31/2006 130.27
4/3/2006 129.94
4/4/2006 129.25
4/5/2006 128.66
4/6/2006 128.61
4/7/2006 128.75
4/10/2006 129.41
4/11/2006 128.90
4/12/2006 129.13
4/13/2006 128.91
4/14/2006 128.89
4/17/2006 128.89
4/18/2006 128.47
4/19/2006 128.37
4/20/2006 127.98
4/21/2006 128.54
4/24/2006 128.84
4/25/2006 128.67
4/26/2006 128.35
4/27/2006 128.68
4/28/2006 127.92
5/1/2006 127.74
5/2/2006 128.62
5/3/2006 128.22
5/4/2006 128.59
5/5/2006 128.08
5/8/2006 128.25
5/9/2006 128.41
5/10/2006 128.48
5/11/2006 128.90
5/12/2006 128.97
5/15/2006 129.20
5/16/2006 129.32
5/17/2006 129.25
5/18/2006 129.03
5/19/2006 129.05
5/22/2006 128.65
5/23/2006 128.15
5/24/2006 128.03
5/25/2006 128.24
5/26/2006 127.98
5/29/2006 127.96
5/30/2006 127.38
5/31/2006 127.38
6/1/2006 127.44
6/2/2006 126.94
6/5/2006 126.11
6/6/2006 126.54
6/7/2006 126.72
6/8/2006 127.05
6/9/2006 127.02
6/12/2006 127.21
6/13/2006 127.62
6/14/2006 127.63
6/15/2006 127.85
6/16/2006 127.67
6/19/2006 127.94
6/20/2006 127.20
6/21/2006 126.62
6/22/2006 126.94
6/23/2006 126.99
6/26/2006 126.78
6/27/2006 127.15
6/28/2006 127.08
6/29/2006 127.16
6/30/2006 126.51
7/3/2006 126.43
7/4/2006 125.91
7/5/2006 125.99
7/6/2006 125.80
7/7/2006 125.48
7/10/2006 126.02
7/11/2006 125.88
7/12/2006 125.81
7/13/2006 125.97
7/14/2006 126.48
7/17/2006 127.05
7/18/2006 127.22
7/19/2006 127.38
7/20/2006 126.89
7/21/2006 127.01
7/24/2006 127.21
7/25/2006 127.13
7/26/2006 127.16
7/27/2006 126.72
7/28/2006 126.87
7/31/2006 126.76
8/1/2006 126.53
8/2/2006 126.27
8/3/2006 126.48
8/4/2006 126.39
8/7/2006 126.20
8/8/2006 126.27
8/9/2006 125.88
8/10/2006 126.33
8/11/2006 126.54
8/14/2006 126.68
8/15/2006 126.52
8/16/2006 126.22
8/17/2006 126.00
8/18/2006 126.29
8/21/2006 126.00
8/22/2006 126.26
8/23/2006 126.13
8/24/2006 126.17
8/25/2006 126.85
8/28/2006 126.82
8/29/2006 126.75
8/30/2006 126.88
8/31/2006 127.03
9/1/2006 128.13
9/4/2006 127.61
9/5/2006 127.58
9/6/2006 127.78
9/7/2006 128.02
9/8/2006 127.92
9/11/2006 126.88
9/12/2006 126.67
9/13/2006 126.73
9/14/2006 126.65
9/15/2006 126.44
9/18/2006 126.04
9/19/2006 126.01
9/20/2006 126.68
9/21/2006 126.78
9/22/2006 127.00
9/25/2006 127.54
9/26/2006 127.55
9/27/2006 127.41
9/28/2006 127.05
9/29/2006 127.30
10/2/2006 127.93
10/3/2006 127.89
10/4/2006 127.61
10/5/2006 127.38
10/6/2006 127.26
10/9/2006 127.22
10/10/2006 127.22
10/11/2006 127.03
10/12/2006 127.08
10/13/2006 127.11
10/16/2006 127.07
10/17/2006 127.06
10/18/2006 127.19
10/19/2006 126.88
10/20/2006 126.38
10/23/2006 126.34
10/24/2006 126.47
10/25/2006 126.49
10/26/2006 126.70
10/27/2006 126.50
10/30/2006 126.45
10/31/2006 126.34
11/1/2006 126.18
11/2/2006 126.13
11/3/2006 125.93
11/6/2006 125.52
11/7/2006 125.41
11/8/2006 125.32
11/9/2006 124.85
11/10/2006 124.54
11/13/2006 124.49
11/14/2006 124.21
11/15/2006 124.16
11/16/2006 123.86
11/17/2006 123.94
11/20/2006 124.31
11/21/2006 124.72
11/22/2006 124.13
11/23/2006 123.88
11/24/2006 123.45
11/27/2006 123.36
11/28/2006 123.78
11/29/2006 123.62
11/30/2006 123.54
12/1/2006 123.03
12/4/2006 122.82
12/5/2006 123.35
12/6/2006 123.53
12/7/2006 123.03
12/8/2006 123.19
12/11/2006 123.56
12/12/2006 123.09
12/13/2006 123.26
12/14/2006 123.36
12/15/2006 123.54
12/18/2006 123.63
12/19/2006 123.18
12/20/2006 122.72
12/21/2006 122.28
12/22/2006 122.52
12/25/2006 122.59
12/26/2006 122.59
12/27/2006 122.98
12/28/2006 123.15
12/29/2006 123.06
1/1/2007 122.84
1/2/2007 122.69
1/3/2007 122.69
1/4/2007 123.76
1/5/2007 123.73
1/8/2007 123.75
1/9/2007 124.24
1/10/2007 124.73
1/11/2007 124.58
1/12/2007 124.35
1/15/2007 124.13
1/16/2007 123.99
1/17/2007 124.24
1/18/2007 124.42
1/19/2007 124.48
1/22/2007 124.60
1/23/2007 124.09
1/24/2007 123.92
1/25/2007 124.04
1/26/2007 124.40
1/29/2007 123.96
1/30/2007 123.60
1/31/2007 123.73
2/1/2007 123.62
2/2/2007 124.08
2/5/2007 125.04
2/6/2007 125.05
2/7/2007 124.62
2/8/2007 124.01
2/9/2007 124.10
2/12/2007 124.64
2/13/2007 125.01
2/14/2007 124.52
2/15/2007 125.87
2/16/2007 126.09
2/19/2007 125.91
2/20/2007 126.30
2/21/2007 126.80
2/22/2007 126.64
2/23/2007 126.68
2/26/2007 126.31
2/27/2007 125.90
2/28/2007 126.18
3/1/2007 126.68
3/2/2007 126.52
3/5/2007 126.90
3/6/2007 126.29
3/7/2007 126.24
3/8/2007 126.60
3/9/2007 126.75
3/12/2007 126.48
3/13/2007 126.28
3/14/2007 126.40
3/15/2007 125.92
3/16/2007 125.95
3/19/2007 126.26
3/20/2007 126.29
3/21/2007 126.24
3/22/2007 126.25
3/23/2007 126.40
3/26/2007 126.56
3/27/2007 126.59
3/28/2007 126.99
3/29/2007 126.68
3/30/2007 126.85
4/2/2007 127.20
4/3/2007 127.23
4/4/2007 126.54
4/5/2007 125.75
4/6/2007
4/9/2007
4/10/2007 125.72
4/11/2007 125.73
4/12/2007 125.51
4/13/2007 125.77
4/16/2007 124.72
4/17/2007 124.79
4/18/2007 124.77
4/19/2007 124.61
4/20/2007 124.44
4/23/2007 124.49
4/24/2007 124.44
4/25/2007 123.96
4/26/2007 123.74
4/27/2007 123.63
4/30/2007 123.67
5/1/2007
5/2/2007 123.43
5/3/2007 123.56
5/4/2007 123.94
5/7/2007 123.92
5/8/2007 124.36
5/9/2007 124.69
5/10/2007 124.72
5/11/2007 124.80
5/14/2007 124.69
5/15/2007 124.17
5/16/2007 124.23
5/17/2007
5/18/2007 124.63
5/21/2007 124.77
5/22/2007 124.34
5/23/2007 124.64
5/24/2007 124.62
5/25/2007 124.52
5/28/2007 124.77
5/29/2007 125.54
5/30/2007 126.03
5/31/2007 126.00
6/1/2007 126.38
6/4/2007 126.45
6/5/2007 126.22
6/6/2007
6/7/2007 126.36
6/8/2007 126.87
6/11/2007 126.86
6/12/2007 127.86
6/13/2007 127.74
6/14/2007 128.00
6/15/2007 127.70
6/18/2007 127.98
6/19/2007 127.70
6/20/2007 125.65
6/21/2007 125.64
6/22/2007
6/25/2007 125.52
6/26/2007 125.96
6/27/2007 125.74
6/28/2007 125.32
6/29/2007 125.55
7/2/2007 125.41
7/3/2007 124.76
7/4/2007 124.00
7/5/2007 124.08
7/6/2007 123.99
7/9/2007 124.42
7/10/2007 124.17
7/11/2007 123.89
7/12/2007 123.73
7/13/2007 123.73
7/16/2007 123.60
7/17/2007 123.95
7/18/2007 124.11
7/19/2007 124.05
7/20/2007 124.13
7/23/2007 124.32
7/24/2007 124.68
7/25/2007 125.02
7/26/2007 125.41
7/27/2007 124.77
7/30/2007 124.69
7/31/2007 124.91
8/1/2007 125.54
8/2/2007 125.09
8/3/2007 125.10
8/6/2007 124.96
8/7/2007 125.14
8/8/2007 125.01
8/9/2007 125.46
8/10/2007 125.79
8/13/2007 126.34
8/14/2007 126.61
8/15/2007 127.22
8/16/2007 127.86
8/17/2007 126.85
8/20/2007 127.22
8/21/2007 127.64
8/22/2007 127.52
8/23/2007 127.39
8/24/2007 127.11
8/27/2007 127.25
8/28/2007 127.46
8/29/2007 127.29
8/30/2007 127.43
8/31/2007 127.52
9/3/2007 127.66
9/4/2007 127.55
9/5/2007 127.54
9/6/2007 126.68
9/7/2007 126.92
9/10/2007 126.84
9/11/2007 126.42
9/12/2007 125.59
9/13/2007 125.31
9/14/2007 125.42
9/17/2007 125.57
9/18/2007 125.42
9/19/2007 124.62
9/20/2007 124.27
9/21/2007 123.88
9/24/2007 123.58
9/25/2007 123.96
9/26/2007 124.28
9/27/2007 124.16
9/28/2007 123.78
10/1/2007 123.57
10/2/2007 124.16
10/3/2007 123.78
10/4/2007 123.90
10/5/2007 123.50
10/8/2007 123.54
10/9/2007 123.49
10/10/2007 123.19
10/11/2007 122.51
10/12/2007 122.58
10/15/2007 122.64
10/16/2007 123.29
10/17/2007 123.24
10/18/2007 123.21
10/19/2007 123.51
10/22/2007 124.06
10/23/2007 123.82
10/24/2007 124.27
10/25/2007 123.79
10/26/2007 123.37
10/29/2007 123.49
10/30/2007 123.43
10/31/2007 123.44
11/1/2007 124.26
11/2/2007 124.34
11/5/2007 124.51
11/6/2007 124.10
11/7/2007 123.86
11/8/2007 124.13
11/9/2007 124.46
11/12/2007 124.73
11/13/2007 124.17
11/14/2007 123.12
11/15/2007 123.54
11/16/2007 123.79
11/19/2007 123.77
11/20/2007 123.68
11/21/2007 124.38
11/22/2007 124.11
11/23/2007 124.03
11/26/2007 123.63
11/27/2007 124.27
11/28/2007 124.45
11/29/2007 124.96
11/30/2007 124.86
12/3/2007 125.33
12/4/2007 125.38
12/5/2007 125.08
12/6/2007 125.29
12/7/2007 125.05
12/10/2007 125.22
12/11/2007 125.31
12/12/2007 125.50
12/13/2007 125.99
12/14/2007 125.71
12/17/2007 126.29
12/18/2007 126.25
12/19/2007 126.56
12/20/2007 126.19
12/21/2007 126.29
12/24/2007
12/25/2007
12/26/2007
12/27/2007 125.96
12/28/2007 125.57
12/31/2007 125.67
1/1/2008
1/2/2008 125.31
1/3/2008 124.60
1/4/2008 124.49
1/7/2008 124.75
1/8/2008 124.77
1/9/2008 125.10
1/10/2008 124.57
1/11/2008 124.59
1/14/2008 124.40
1/15/2008 124.84
1/16/2008 125.61
1/17/2008 125.50
1/18/2008 125.60
1/21/2008 126.56
1/22/2008 126.56
1/23/2008 126.77
1/24/2008 125.91
1/25/2008 126.11
1/28/2008 126.15
1/29/2008 125.67
1/30/2008 125.25
1/31/2008 125.87
2/1/2008 125.32
2/4/2008 124.67
2/5/2008 125.65
2/6/2008 125.56
2/7/2008 125.96
2/8/2008 125.51
2/11/2008 125.86
2/12/2008 125.20
2/13/2008 124.63
2/14/2008 124.59
2/15/2008 123.92
2/18/2008 124.01
2/19/2008 123.66
2/20/2008 123.95
2/21/2008 123.72
2/22/2008 123.85
2/25/2008 123.63
2/26/2008 123.59
2/27/2008 123.55
2/28/2008 123.85
2/29/2008 124.02
3/3/2008 123.96
3/4/2008 124.05
3/5/2008 123.75
3/6/2008 123.87
3/7/2008 124.10
3/10/2008 124.40
3/11/2008 124.21
3/12/2008 124.21
3/13/2008 124.41
3/14/2008 124.50
3/17/2008 124.50
3/18/2008 123.92
3/19/2008 123.42
3/20/2008 124.28
3/21/2008
3/24/2008
3/25/2008 123.56
3/26/2008 123.43
3/27/2008 123.26
3/28/2008 123.08
3/31/2008 122.78
4/1/2008 123.07
4/2/2008 122.59
4/3/2008 122.52
4/4/2008 122.85
4/7/2008 122.55
4/8/2008 122.63
4/9/2008 122.65
4/10/2008 122.82
4/11/2008 123.00
4/14/2008 123.06
4/15/2008 122.97
4/16/2008 122.44
4/17/2008 122.78
4/18/2008 122.97
4/21/2008 122.16
4/22/2008 121.76
4/23/2008 121.73
4/24/2008 121.85
4/25/2008 122.33
4/28/2008 122.48
4/29/2008 122.66
4/30/2008 122.37
5/1/2008 122.88
5/2/2008 122.98
5/5/2008 122.76
5/6/2008 122.45
5/7/2008 122.29
5/8/2008 122.25
5/9/2008 121.91
5/12/2008 121.86
5/13/2008 121.82
5/14/2008 122.05
5/15/2008 122.53
5/16/2008 122.00
5/19/2008 121.75
5/20/2008 121.65
5/21/2008 121.76
5/22/2008 121.97
5/23/2008 121.60
5/26/2008 121.77
5/27/2008 121.60
5/28/2008 122.36
5/29/2008 122.29
5/30/2008 122.37
6/2/2008 122.80
6/3/2008 122.52
6/4/2008 122.58
6/5/2008 121.94
6/6/2008
6/9/2008 122.08
6/10/2008 122.42
6/11/2008 122.55
6/12/2008 122.95
6/13/2008 122.79
6/16/2008
6/17/2008 122.33
6/18/2008 122.65
6/19/2008 122.99
6/20/2008
6/23/2008 123.02
6/24/2008 123.04
6/25/2008 122.97
6/26/2008 122.87
6/27/2008 123.02
6/30/2008 123.71
7/1/2008 123.41
7/2/2008 123.44
7/3/2008 122.87
7/4/2008 122.63
7/7/2008 122.73
7/8/2008 123.15
7/9/2008 123.30
7/10/2008 123.30
7/11/2008 123.35
7/14/2008 123.48
7/15/2008 123.75
7/16/2008 124.17
7/17/2008 123.46
7/18/2008 123.14
7/21/2008 123.05
7/22/2008 123.54
7/23/2008 123.51
7/24/2008 123.45
7/25/2008 123.60
7/28/2008 123.31
7/29/2008 123.73
7/30/2008 123.40
7/31/2008 123.43
8/1/2008 123.80
8/4/2008 123.45
8/5/2008 123.55
8/6/2008 123.08
8/7/2008 122.82
8/8/2008 123.45
8/11/2008 123.58
8/12/2008 123.68
8/13/2008 123.20
8/14/2008 123.17
8/15/2008 123.50
8/18/2008 123.39
8/19/2008 123.90
8/20/2008 123.85
8/21/2008 123.47
8/22/2008 123.15
8/25/2008 123.38
8/26/2008 123.58
8/27/2008 124.00
8/28/2008 124.14
8/29/2008 124.46
9/1/2008 124.59
9/2/2008 124.57
9/3/2008 125.05
9/4/2008 125.27
9/5/2008 125.49
9/8/2008 125.45
9/9/2008 126.25
9/10/2008 126.44
9/11/2008 127.14
9/12/2008 126.41
9/15/2008 127.04
9/16/2008 127.79
9/17/2008 128.11
9/18/2008 127.36
9/19/2008 126.68
9/22/2008 126.20
9/23/2008 126.99
9/24/2008 127.69
9/25/2008 127.50
9/26/2008 127.92
9/29/2008 128.76
9/30/2008 130.10
10/1/2008 129.43
10/2/2008 129.83
10/3/2008 129.89
10/6/2008 131.01
10/7/2008 129.59
10/8/2008 129.95
10/9/2008 129.80
10/10/2008 129.16
10/13/2008 130.06
10/14/2008 130.41
10/15/2008 133.13
10/16/2008 133.80
10/17/2008 133.21
10/20/2008 133.62
10/21/2008 134.89
10/22/2008 135.69
10/23/2008 134.51
10/24/2008 135.23
10/27/2008 136.38
10/28/2008 136.75
10/29/2008 133.39
10/30/2008 133.79
10/31/2008 134.08
11/3/2008 133.60
11/4/2008 133.43
11/5/2008 134.85
11/6/2008 135.61
11/7/2008 135.39
11/10/2008 134.50
11/11/2008 136.67
11/12/2008 136.63
11/13/2008 135.25
11/14/2008 134.37
11/17/2008 135.63
11/18/2008 136.85
11/19/2008 137.57
11/20/2008 139.03
11/21/2008 142.11
11/24/2008 139.30
11/25/2008 136.81
11/26/2008 138.91
11/27/2008 138.15
11/28/2008 139.06
12/1/2008 140.99
12/2/2008 139.87
12/3/2008 139.54
12/4/2008 140.98
12/5/2008 143.76
12/8/2008 138.73
12/9/2008 140.80
12/10/2008 140.63
12/11/2008 140.66
12/12/2008 142.36
12/15/2008 144.08
12/16/2008 146.61
12/17/2008 143.36
12/18/2008 141.72
12/19/2008 141.30
12/22/2008 142.72
12/23/2008 144.53
12/24/2008
12/25/2008
12/26/2008
12/29/2008 142.68
12/30/2008 141.65
12/31/2008
1/1/2009
1/2/2009 141.28
1/5/2009 141.33
1/6/2009 139.55
1/7/2009 139.83
1/8/2009 141.34
1/9/2009 141.67
1/12/2009 142.40
1/13/2009 144.15
1/14/2009 147.05
1/15/2009 145.57
1/16/2009 144.20
1/19/2009 144.44
1/20/2009 144.26
1/21/2009 142.85
1/22/2009 141.68
1/23/2009 141.24
1/26/2009 139.13
1/27/2009 141.04
1/28/2009 140.18
1/29/2009 140.24
1/30/2009 143.03
2/2/2009 143.05
2/3/2009 143.36
2/4/2009 142.71
2/5/2009 142.55
2/6/2009 140.90
2/9/2009 139.63
2/10/2009 141.37
2/11/2009 144.49
2/12/2009 144.45
2/13/2009 144.05
2/16/2009 146.49
2/17/2009 148.74
2/18/2009 147.70
2/19/2009 148.30
2/20/2009 149.61
2/23/2009 150.10
2/24/2009 152.11
2/25/2009 151.46
2/26/2009 151.77
2/27/2009 152.58
3/2/2009 154.19
3/3/2009 154.95
3/4/2009 152.99
3/5/2009 156.24
3/6/2009 155.60
3/9/2009 153.33
3/10/2009 150.27
3/11/2009 149.16
3/12/2009 147.70
3/13/2009 147.47
3/16/2009 145.39
3/17/2009 145.95
3/18/2009 144.72
3/19/2009 142.98
3/20/2009 145.66
3/23/2009 143.30
3/24/2009 144.20
3/25/2009 143.48
3/26/2009 142.42
3/27/2009 143.08
3/30/2009 144.75
3/31/2009 144.36
4/1/2009 143.60
4/2/2009 142.31
4/3/2009 142.17
4/6/2009 141.89
4/7/2009 143.67
4/8/2009 144.58
4/9/2009 144.54
4/10/2009
4/13/2009
4/14/2009 143.52
4/15/2009 145.32
4/16/2009 145.64
4/17/2009 146.64
4/20/2009 149.01
4/21/2009 147.32
4/22/2009 145.62
4/23/2009 145.33
4/24/2009 142.68
4/27/2009 141.64
4/28/2009 142.36
4/29/2009 141.41
4/30/2009 140.85
5/1/2009 141.42
5/4/2009 140.04
5/5/2009 140.76
5/6/2009 140.10
5/7/2009 139.25
5/8/2009 138.28
5/11/2009 139.33
5/12/2009 140.74
5/13/2009 141.43
5/14/2009 141.32
5/15/2009 140.71
5/18/2009 139.71
5/19/2009 138.80
5/20/2009 137.62
5/21/2009 138.85
5/22/2009 137.78
5/25/2009 138.27
5/26/2009 139.42
5/27/2009 140.69
5/28/2009 141.50
5/29/2009 141.45
6/1/2009 138.41
6/2/2009 140.79
6/3/2009 143.24
6/4/2009 142.51
6/5/2009 143.16
6/8/2009 143.47
6/9/2009 142.42
6/10/2009 141.95
6/11/2009 142.51
6/12/2009 141.95
6/15/2009 144.27
6/16/2009 144.04
6/17/2009 145.44
6/18/2009 145.09
6/19/2009 145.73
6/22/2009 146.76
6/23/2009 146.87
6/24/2009 145.18
6/25/2009 146.36
6/26/2009 144.24
6/29/2009 143.30
6/30/2009 143.37
7/1/2009 141.26
7/2/2009 143.46
7/3/2009 143.43
7/6/2009 144.60
7/7/2009 145.12
7/8/2009 146.42
7/9/2009 145.34
7/10/2009 146.63
7/13/2009 145.75
7/14/2009 145.58
7/15/2009 144.72
7/16/2009 145.50
7/17/2009 145.79
7/20/2009 145.38
7/21/2009 142.87
7/22/2009 142.20
7/23/2009 140.05
7/24/2009 139.54
7/27/2009 139.34
7/28/2009 140.01
7/29/2009 139.29
7/30/2009 137.74
7/31/2009 136.11
8/3/2009 134.67
8/4/2009 135.72
8/5/2009 135.79
8/6/2009 135.34
8/7/2009 134.15
8/10/2009 135.18
8/11/2009 136.88
8/12/2009 134.93
8/13/2009 134.87
8/14/2009 135.00
8/17/2009 135.87
8/18/2009 135.02
8/19/2009 135.23
8/20/2009 134.56
8/21/2009 132.64
8/22/2009 132.69
8/23/2009 132.74
8/24/2009 132.78
8/25/2009 132.58
8/26/2009 133.62
ges. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 10. Oil price, Brent crude
USD per barrel
Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank
Note. Futures are calculated as a 15-day average. Outcomes represent monthly averages of spot prices.
Outcome Futures, average up to and including 26 August Futures, July
1/15/2000 25.44
2/15/2000 27.79
3/15/2000 27.29
4/15/2000 22.65
5/15/2000 27.74
6/15/2000 29.76
7/15/2000 28.70
8/15/2000 30.29
9/15/2000 32.95
10/15/2000 31.01
11/15/2000 32.53
12/15/2000 25.52
1/15/2001 25.69
2/15/2001 27.50
3/15/2001 24.51
4/15/2001 25.70
5/15/2001 28.33
6/15/2001 27.80
7/15/2001 24.61
8/15/2001 25.72
9/15/2001 25.69
10/15/2001 20.41
11/15/2001 18.83
12/15/2001 18.71
1/15/2002 19.46
2/15/2002 20.34
3/15/2002 23.78
4/15/2002 25.65
5/15/2002 25.36
6/15/2002 24.07
7/15/2002 25.85
8/15/2002 26.76
9/15/2002 28.35
10/15/2002 27.56
11/15/2002 24.38
12/15/2002 28.47
1/15/2003 31.27
2/15/2003 32.82
3/15/2003 30.28
4/15/2003 24.91
5/15/2003 25.80
6/15/2003 27.55
7/15/2003 28.52
8/15/2003 29.84
9/15/2003 26.94
10/15/2003 29.56
11/15/2003 28.88
12/15/2003 29.95
1/15/2004 31.34
2/15/2004 30.86
3/15/2004 33.80
4/15/2004 33.52
5/15/2004 37.56
6/15/2004 35.24
7/15/2004 38.32
8/15/2004 42.68
9/15/2004 43.31
10/15/2004 49.84
11/15/2004 43.46
12/15/2004 39.73
1/15/2005 44.06
2/15/2005 45.40
3/15/2005 53.12
4/15/2005 51.12
5/15/2005 48.01
6/15/2005 53.96
7/15/2005 57.68
8/15/2005 64.37
9/15/2005 62.66
10/15/2005 58.32
11/15/2005 55.01
12/15/2005 56.51
1/15/2006 62.87
2/15/2006 59.66
3/15/2006 61.59
4/15/2006 70.45
5/15/2006 69.49
6/15/2006 68.14
7/15/2006 73.46
8/15/2006 72.90
9/15/2006 61.20
10/15/2006 57.18
11/15/2006 58.42
12/15/2006 63.04
1/15/2007 53.57
2/15/2007 57.57
3/15/2007 62.29
4/15/2007 67.66
5/15/2007 67.39
6/15/2007 71.78
7/15/2007 77.87
8/15/2007 71.60
9/15/2007 78.19
10/15/2007 82.83
11/15/2007 92.98
12/15/2007 91.26
1/15/2008 92.64
2/15/2008 95.79
3/15/2008 104.39
4/15/2008 108.82
5/15/2008 123.12
6/15/2008 131.97
7/15/2008 132.84
8/15/2008 113.99
9/15/2008 98.24
10/15/2008 71.99
11/15/2008 52.73
12/15/2008 40.30
1/15/2009 43.43
2/15/2009 43.34
3/15/2009 46.75
4/15/2009 50.32
5/15/2009 57.48
6/15/2009 68.85
7/15/2009 64.72 69.60
8/15/2009 68.53 70.32
9/15/2009 72.37 71.02
10/15/2009 73.19 71.74
11/15/2009 73.94 72.44
12/15/2009 74.68 73.06
1/15/2010 75.35 73.59
2/15/2010 75.98 74.08
3/15/2010 76.58 74.55
4/15/2010 77.14 75.00
5/15/2010 77.67 75.42
6/15/2010 78.16 75.81
7/15/2010 78.55 76.15
8/15/2010 78.88 76.46
9/15/2010 79.19 76.74
10/15/2010 79.49 77.02
11/15/2010 79.79 77.31
12/15/2010 80.08 77.58
1/15/2011 80.33 77.88
2/15/2011 80.55 78.18
3/15/2011 80.74 78.47
4/15/2011 80.90 78.75
5/15/2011 81.06 79.02
6/15/2011 81.21 79.27
7/15/2011 81.35 79.52
8/15/2011 81.50 79.76
9/15/2011 81.64 80.00
10/15/2011 81.78 80.23
11/15/2011 81.92 80.45
12/15/2011 82.05 80.64
1/15/2012 82.17 80.77
2/15/2012 82.30 80.91
3/15/2012 82.42 81.04
4/15/2012 82.54 81.17
5/15/2012 82.67 81.30
6/15/2012 82.79 81.43
7/15/2012 82.92 81.56
8/15/2012 83.04 81.69
9/15/2012 83.17 81.82
Figure 11. Development of GDP in different regions and countries
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. TCW entails weighted GDP for Sweden's main trading partner. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sweden Euro area USA
2/15/2000 3.50 4.89 1.05
5/15/2000 7.44 3.84 8.04
8/15/2000 2.24 1.90 0.33
11/15/2000 -0.17 2.97 2.39
2/15/2001 0.39 3.06 -1.31
5/15/2001 -0.01 0.21 2.65
8/15/2001 1.75 0.37 -1.09
11/15/2001 3.58 0.45 1.42
2/15/2002 1.33 0.97 3.48
5/15/2002 5.35 1.84 2.14
8/15/2002 0.37 1.46 2.01
11/15/2002 2.41 0.47 0.08
2/15/2003 3.40 0.05 1.63
5/15/2003 -1.51 0.00 3.23
8/15/2003 4.05 2.12 6.88
11/15/2003 2.63 2.54 3.64
2/15/2004 5.62 2.32 2.85
5/15/2004 3.84 1.86 2.87
8/15/2004 2.87 1.37 2.97
11/15/2004 2.62 1.49 3.52
2/15/2005 2.95 1.09 4.05
5/15/2005 2.99 2.94 1.72
8/15/2005 5.35 2.53 3.08
11/15/2005 3.96 2.02 2.08
2/15/2006 6.21 3.23 5.35
5/15/2006 3.95 4.60 1.45
8/15/2006 4.44 2.29 0.10
11/15/2006 1.64 3.54 2.96
2/15/2007 2.37 3.04 1.21
5/15/2007 3.44 1.70 3.22
8/15/2007 2.14 2.41 3.59
11/15/2007 1.45 1.59 2.12
2/15/2008 1.70 2.94 -0.72
5/15/2008 -0.42 -1.04 1.46
8/15/2008 -1.87 -1.47 -2.68
11/15/2008 -18.40 -6.89 -5.37
2/15/2009 -3.45 -9.73 -6.43
5/15/2009 -0.10 -0.10 -0.38 -0.38 -1.02 -1.02
8/15/2009 0.69 0.07 1.68
11/15/2009 1.53 0.53 0.25
2/15/2010 1.66 0.78 1.17
5/15/2010 1.93 0.97 2.32
8/15/2010 2.29 1.25 3.13
11/15/2010 3.00 1.31 3.53
2/15/2011 3.27 1.57 3.58
5/15/2011 3.65 1.86 3.25
8/15/2011 3.80 2.34 3.16
11/15/2011 3.62 2.51 2.88
2/15/2012 3.54 2.25 2.83
5/15/2012 3.58 2.23 2.83
8/15/2012 3.60 1.97 2.83
the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 12. Estimated gaps
Percentage deviation from the HP trend
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note.These gaps should not necessarily be interpreted as the Riksbank's overall assesment of resource utilisation. Broken line
GDP Hours worked Employment
5/15/1980 1.82 1.09 0.84
8/15/1980 1.54 0.66 0.59
11/15/1980 1.06 0.42 0.58
2/15/1981 0.36 0.08 0.91
5/15/1981 0.06 -0.28 -0.26
8/15/1981 -0.60 -0.26 0.19
11/15/1981 -1.31 -0.70 -0.44
2/15/1982 -1.27 -0.69 -0.62
5/15/1982 -1.29 -0.76 -0.50
8/15/1982 -1.88 -0.73 -0.83
11/15/1982 -2.03 -0.60 -0.77
2/15/1983 -2.85 -0.89 -0.91
5/15/1983 -2.65 -0.81 -0.89
8/15/1983 -2.15 -1.05 -1.36
11/15/1983 -1.43 -1.02 -1.30
2/15/1984 -0.25 -0.50 -1.26
5/15/1984 -0.35 -0.76 -1.54
8/15/1984 -0.06 -0.82 -0.58
11/15/1984 0.03 -0.57 -0.59
2/15/1985 -0.68 -0.52 -0.55
5/15/1985 -0.34 -0.21 -1.23
8/15/1985 -0.29 -0.41 -0.36
11/15/1985 -0.46 -0.45 -0.43
2/15/1986 0.24 -0.96 -0.49
5/15/1986 -0.03 -1.04 -0.98
8/15/1986 -0.08 -0.48 -0.71
11/15/1986 0.28 -0.67 -0.78
2/15/1987 0.44 -0.47 -0.67
5/15/1987 1.14 -0.51 -0.04
8/15/1987 1.59 -0.40 -0.25
11/15/1987 1.52 0.19 0.18
2/15/1988 1.47 0.72 0.44
5/15/1988 1.37 1.40 0.81
8/15/1988 1.39 1.50 0.95
11/15/1988 1.95 1.93 1.47
2/15/1989 2.47 2.10 1.78
5/15/1989 2.91 2.57 2.39
8/15/1989 3.28 3.12 2.83
11/15/1989 3.28 3.26 3.39
2/15/1990 3.29 3.77 4.09
5/15/1990 3.13 3.67 4.21
8/15/1990 2.84 4.22 4.30
11/15/1990 2.60 3.45 4.38
2/15/1991 1.82 3.02 4.40
5/15/1991 1.09 2.31 3.96
8/15/1991 0.56 1.42 3.01
11/15/1991 0.34 1.46 2.36
2/15/1992 0.47 0.97 1.67
5/15/1992 -0.44 0.24 1.48
8/15/1992 -1.63 -1.35 0.12
11/15/1992 -3.37 -2.54 -0.79
2/15/1993 -4.81 -4.40 -2.32
5/15/1993 -4.84 -4.77 -3.85
8/15/1993 -4.31 -4.32 -4.34
11/15/1993 -4.06 -4.32 -4.56
2/15/1994 -3.71 -4.19 -4.35
5/15/1994 -2.47 -2.83 -3.54
8/15/1994 -1.60 -2.60 -2.99
11/15/1994 -1.20 -1.61 -2.44
2/15/1995 -0.25 -0.79 -1.74
5/15/1995 0.08 -0.47 -0.59
8/15/1995 -0.11 0.28 -0.53
11/15/1995 0.22 0.11 -0.90
2/15/1996 0.05 0.17 -0.42
5/15/1996 -1.12 0.08 -1.14
8/15/1996 -1.18 -0.71 -1.30
11/15/1996 -1.42 -0.68 -1.42
2/15/1997 -1.49 -0.83 -2.07
5/15/1997 -1.04 -1.47 -2.39
8/15/1997 -0.96 -1.03 -2.11
11/15/1997 -0.27 -0.95 -2.16
2/15/1998 -0.90 -0.96 -1.85
5/15/1998 -0.10 -0.49 -1.73
8/15/1998 -0.09 -0.28 -1.02
11/15/1998 -0.11 0.36 -0.46
2/15/1999 0.65 0.79 0.04
5/15/1999 0.18 0.87 0.29
8/15/1999 0.76 1.36 -0.16
11/15/1999 1.54 1.03 0.18
2/15/2000 1.61 1.10 0.32
5/15/2000 2.62 1.82 1.47
8/15/2000 2.40 1.75 1.12
11/15/2000 1.58 2.01 2.03
2/15/2001 0.91 2.39 2.41
5/15/2001 0.15 2.05 2.25
8/15/2001 -0.16 2.00 2.05
11/15/2001 -0.03 2.01 1.74
2/15/2002 -0.43 1.00 1.68
5/15/2002 0.15 0.99 1.45
8/15/2002 -0.48 0.34 1.11
11/15/2002 -0.59 -0.40 0.87
2/15/2003 -0.45 -0.28 0.50
5/15/2003 -1.52 -1.09 0.62
8/15/2003 -1.20 -1.22 -0.05
11/15/2003 -1.22 -1.09 -0.61
2/15/2004 -0.50 -1.41 -0.79
5/15/2004 -0.20 -1.51 -0.87
8/15/2004 -0.12 -1.70 -0.96
11/15/2004 -0.08 -2.09 -1.18
2/15/2005 0.05 -2.10 -1.27
5/15/2005 0.22 -1.86 -1.20
8/15/2005 0.97 -1.88 -1.11
11/15/2005 1.41 -1.48 -0.76
2/15/2006 2.40 -1.15 -0.49
5/15/2006 2.89 -0.91 -0.24
8/15/2006 3.51 0.10 0.62
11/15/2006 3.48 0.53 1.05
2/15/2007 3.65 1.68 1.55
5/15/2007 4.10 2.37 2.07
8/15/2007 4.26 2.99 2.72
11/15/2007 4.26 3.90 2.80
2/15/2008 4.35 3.62 3.27
5/15/2008 3.92 4.24 3.35
8/15/2008 3.13 3.34 3.17
11/15/2008 -2.27 2.37 2.51
2/15/2009 -3.47 1.64 1.80
5/15/2009 -3.82 -3.82 0.34 0.34 1.13 1.13
8/15/2009 -3.99 -0.60 0.09
11/15/2009 -3.96 -1.40 -0.88
2/15/2010 -3.92 -1.89 -1.66
5/15/2010 -3.84 -2.23 -2.24
8/15/2010 -3.69 -2.46 -2.64
11/15/2010 -3.41 -2.44 -2.84
2/15/2011 -3.08 -2.41 -2.89
5/15/2011 -2.72 -2.24 -2.82
8/15/2011 -2.35 -2.04 -2.62
11/15/2011 -2.03 -1.85 -2.41
2/15/2012 -1.75 -1.66 -2.19
5/15/2012 -1.49 -1.47 -1.99
8/15/2012 -1.25 -1.27 -1.80
rce utilisation. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.