Get documents about "Ekonomi_Sunumu_ENG
Shared by: qingyunliuliu
-
Stats
- views:
- 8
- posted:
- 12/4/2011
- language:
- English
- pages:
- 189
Document Sample
This indicator set is prepared for users to give up-to-date information about
different areas of Turkish Economy.
This document is updated at the first day of every week.
Last update: November 28, 2011
1
TURKISH ECONOMY
Undersecretariat of Treasury
November 2011
CONTENTS
Turkish Economy in the World.................................................................4
Demographic Profile.................................................................................7
Growth....................................................................................................11
Employment............................................................................................30
Inflation...................................................................................................42
Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments...............................................54
Public Finance........................................................................................74
Debt Management..................................................................................83
Financial Sector....................................................................................118
Market Indicators..................................................................................130
Investment Environment.......................................................................141
Relationship with the IMF and EU........................................................147
Social Security......................................................................................150
Labor Market.........................................................................................159
R&D......................................................................................................170
Energy Sector.......................................................................................185
3
TURKISH ECONOMY IN THE
WORLD
4
World’s Biggest Economies
(GDP based on Purchasing Power Parity, Trillion Dolar, 2010)
Poland
Iran
Taiwan
Australia
Turkey
Indonesia
Canada
Spain
Korea
Mexico
Italy
France
Brazil
UK
Russia
Germany
India
Japan
China
US
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2011
5
Europe’s Biggest Economies
(GDP based on Purchasing Power Parity, Trillion Dolar, 2010)
Greece
Switzerland
Austria
Sweeden
Belgium
Netherlands
Poland
Turkey
Spain
Italy
France
UK
Germany
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2011
6
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
7
Favourable Demographics
Demographic Profile* (as of 2010)
Bulgaria 14% 63% 23%
Ukraine 14% 63% 23%
Czech Rep. 14% 62% 25%
Russia 15% 65% 20%
Romania 15% 63% 23%
Hungary 14% 60% 25%
Europe 15% 60% 25%
Poland 14% 64% 22%
Slovak Rep. 15% 66% 19%
Turkey 26% 64% 10%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
0-14 Age 14-60 Age 60+ Age
(*) Estimates
Source: UN 8
Favourable Demographics
Demographic Profile (2050 Projections)
Poland 14% 46% 40%
Bulgaria 14% 45% 41%
Romania 14% 46% 41%
Slovak Rep. 14% 47% 39%
Czech Rep. 14% 47% 39%
Ukraine 15% 49% 36%
Hungary 14% 49% 37%
Europe 15% 46% 39%
Russia 16% 49% 35%
Turkey 15% 56% 29%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
0-14 Age 14-60 Age 60+ Age
Source: UN
9
Turkey: Population Prospects (Million People)
90
80 77.6
75.8
74.0
70
60
50
2011 2013 2015
Source: TURKSTAT
10
GROWTH
11
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
2001 Q1
Q3
2002 Q1
Q3
Source: TURKSTAT
2003 Q1
Q3
2004 Q1
Q3
2005 Q1
Q3
2006 Q1
GDP Growth Rates (%, YoY)
Q3
2007 Q1
Q3
2008 Q1
Q3
2009 Q1
Q3
2010 Q1
Q3
2011 Q1
12
GDP Growth Rate (Annual Average, %)
8
7.2
7
6
5.3
5
4.3 4.4
4
3
2.2
2 1.5
1
0
1982-1986 1987-1991 1992-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2010
Source: TURKSTAT, Undersecretariat of Treasury
13
GDP Growth Rate Projections (%)
8
6 5.5
5.0
4.5
4
2
0
2011 2012 2013
Source: Ministry of Development, Medium Term Economic Programme 2011-2013, October 2010
14
Volatility of Growth
(Coefficient of Variation of the Growth Rates)
4
3.4
3 2.7
2
1.6
1.3
1 0.4
0
1988-91 1992-96 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2010
Source: TURKSTAT, Undersecretariat of Treasury 15
Per Capita GDP (USD)
10,438
10,500 10,067
9,500 9,240
8,559
8,500
7,586
7,500 7,022
6,500
5,764
5,500
4,559
4,500
3,492
3,500
2,500
1,500
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: TURKSTAT
16
Per Capita GDP Projections (USD)
13,500
12,157
12,000
11,405
10,624
10,500
9,000
7,500
6,000
2011 2012 2013
Source: Ministry of Development, Medium Term Economic Programme 2011-2013, October 2010
17
Comparison of Europe and Turkey:
Real GDP Growth (2001=100)
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
2000 Q1
Q3
2001 Q1
Q3
2002 Q1
Q3
2003 Q1
Q3
2004 Q1
Q3
2005 Q1
Q3
2006 Q1
Q3
2007 Q1
Q3
2008 Q1
Q3
2009 Q1
Q3
2010 Q1
Q3
2010 Q1
Turkey Hungary Poland Spain
Portugal Italy Euro Area
Source: OECD, 2010
18
Industrial Production Index (Seasonally Adjusted)
130
120
110
100
90
III
2005 Q1
Q3
2006 Q1
Q3
2007 Q1
Q3
2008 Q1
Q3
2009 Q1
Q3
2010 Q1
Q3
2011 Q1
Source: TURKSTAT
19
Capacity Utilization Rate of Manufacturing Industry
(Seasonally Adjusted, %)
85
80
75
70
65
60
2007-1
3
5
7
9
11
2008-1
3
5
7
9
11
2009-1
3
5
7
9
11
2010-1
3
5
7
9
11
2011-1
3
5
7
9
11
Source: CBRT 20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2007-1
3
5
Source: CBRT
7
9
11
2008-1
3
5
7
9
11
2009-1
3
5
Real Sector Confidence Index
7
9
11
2010-1
3
5
7
9
11
2011-1
3
5
7
9
11
21
Consumer Confidence Index
100
90
80
70
60
2007-1
3
5
7
9
11
2008-1
3
5
7
9
11
2009-1
3
5
7
9
11
2010-1
3
5
7
9
11
2011-1
3
5
7
9
Source: TURKSTAT-CBRT 22
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
Luxembourg
(*) Forecast
Norway
USA
Switzerland*
Source: EUROSTAT
Ireland
Netherland
Austria
Sweden
Iceland
Denmark
UK
Germany
Per Capita GDP, 2009
Finland
Belgium
Japan
France
(Purchasing Power Parity, AB-27=100)
Spain
Italy
Greece*
Slovenya*
Czech Rep.
Malta
Portugal*
Slovak Rep.
Estonia
Hungary
Lithuania
Croatia*
Poland
Latvia
Romania
Turkey
Bulgaria
Trend line: moving average
Macedonia
23
Contribution to GDP Growth (%)
18
13
8
3
-2
-7
-12
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Private Cons. and Inv. Gov. Cons. and Inv. Net Export Stock Building GDP Growth
Source: TURKSTAT
24
Components of Demand in Europe and Turkey: (2001=100)
Private Consumption Export
220
170
160 200
150 180
140
160
130
120 140
110 120
100
100
90
2001 Q1
Q3
2002 Q1
Q3
2003 Q1
Q3
2004 Q1
Q3
2005 Q1
Q3
2006 Q1
Q3
2007 Q1
Q3
2008 Q1
Q3
2009 Q1
Q3
2010 Q1
Q3
2011 Q1
80
2001 Q1
Q3
2002 Q1
Q3
2003 Q1
Q3
2004 Q1
Q3
2005 Q1
Q3
2006 Q1
Q3
2007 Q1
Q3
2008 Q1
Q3
2009 Q1
Q3
2010 Q1
Q3
2011 Q1
Turkey Hungary Poland Spain
Turkey Hungary Poland Spain
Portugal Italy Euro Area
Portugal Italy Euro Area
Gross Fixed Capital Formation Import
270
280
250
260
230
240 İthalat
210
220
190
200
170 180
150 160
130 140
110 120
90 100
70 80
Q3
Q3
Q3
Q3
Q3
Q3
Q3
Q3
Q3
Q3
2001 Q1
2002 Q1
2003 Q1
2004 Q1
2005 Q1
2006 Q1
2007 Q1
2008 Q1
2009 Q1
2010 Q1
2011 Q1
2001 Q1
Q3
2002 Q1
Q3
2003 Q1
Q3
2004 Q1
Q3
2005 Q1
Q3
2006 Q1
Q3
2007 Q1
Q3
2008 Q1
Q3
2009 Q1
Q3
2010 Q1
Q3
2011 Q1
Turkey Hungary Poland Spain Turkey Hungary Poland Spain
Portugal Italy Euro Area Portugal Italy Euro Area
Source: OECD, 2010 25
Contribution of Private Sector Fixed Investment to GDP
Growth (%)
6
4
3.1
2 2.5
1.8
0.6
0
1993-2002 2003-2010
Private Sector Fixed Investment Other
Source: TURKSTAT
26
Productivity Index of Total Industry
130
120
110
100
Productivity per hour
Linear Trend (Productivity per hour)
90
05 Q1
05 Q3
06 Q1
06 Q3
07 Q1
07 Q3
08 Q1
08 Q3
09 Q1
09 Q3
10 Q1
10 Q3
11 Q1
Source: TURKSTAT, Undersecretariat of Treasury 27
Productivity and Real Wages in Total Industrial Sector
(Per Hour Worked)
130
Real Wage Index
120
Productivity Index
110
100
Real Unit Wage Index
90
80
05 Q1
05 Q3
06 Q1
06 Q3
07 Q1
07 Q3
08 Q1
08 Q3
09 Q1
09 Q3
10 Q1
10 Q3
11 Q1
Source: TURKSTAT, Undersecretariat of Treasury 28
EMPLOYMENT
29
Distribution of Employment by Economic Activity (%)
Agriculture
25.2%
Agriculture Services
Services
34.9% 48.6%
42.1%
Industry
19.9%
Industry
Constructi 18.5% Constructi
on on
4.5% 6.3%
2002 2010
Source: TURKSTAT 30
Distribution of Employment by Employment Status (%)
Self
Self Employed
Employed Worker
Worker 25.5% Regular/
29.4% Regular/
Casual
Casual Employee
Unpaid
Employee 60.9%
Family
49.8%
Unpaid Worker
Family 13.6%
Worker
20.9%
2002 2010
Source: TURKSTAT 31
Employment (Seasonally Adjusted, Million People)
25
24
24
23
23
22
22
21
21
20
2008-1
3
5
7
9
11
2009-1
3
5
7
9
11
2010-1
3
5
7
9
11
2011-1
3
5
7
Source : TURKSTAT 32
10
15
20
25
0
5
2001 Q1
Q3
2002 Q1
Source: TURKSTAT
Q3
2003 Q1
Q3
Total Employment
2004 Q1
Q3
2005 Q1
Formal
(Million, 4-Quarter Moving Average)
Q3
2006 Q1
Q3
2007 Q1
Q3
Informal
2008 Q1
Q3
2009 Q1
Q3
2010 Q1
Q3
2011 Q1
Q3
33
Private Sector Wage and Salary Earners
(Million, Non-Agriculture, 4-Quarter Moving Average)
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2001 Q1
Q3
2002 Q1
Q3
2003 Q1
Q3
2004 Q1
Q3
2005 Q1
Q3
2006 Q1
Q3
2007 Q1
Q3
2008 Q1
Q3
2009 Q1
Q3
2010 Q1
Q3
2011 Q1
Q3
Formal Informal
Source: TURKSTAT
34
Entrepreneurs and Self-Employed
(Million, Non-Agriculture, 4-Quarter Moving Average)
4,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
2001 Q1
Q3
2002 Q1
Q3
2003 Q1
Q3
2004 Q1
Q3
2005 Q1
Q3
2006 Q1
Q3
2007 Q1
Q3
2008 Q1
Q3
2009 Q1
Q3
2010 Q1
Q3
2011 Q1
Q3
Formal Informal
Source: TURKSTAT
35
Workers in Agriculture *
(Million, 4-Quarter Moving Average)
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2001 Q1
Q3
2002 Q1
Q3
2003 Q1
Q3
2004 Q1
Q3
2005 Q1
Q3
2006 Q1
Q3
2007 Q1
Q3
2008 Q1
Q3
2009 Q1
Q3
2010 Q1
Q3
2011 Q1
Q3
Formal Informal
(*) For agriculture/non-agriculture distinction, NACE Rev.1 was used for 2000-2008 period and NACE Rev 2 has started to be used after 2009
Source: TURKSTAT
36
Employment Rate According to Education Level
(Total, % of Working-Age Population, 4-Quarter Moving Average)
100
80
60
40
20
0
2001 Q1
Q3
2002 Q1
Q3
2003 Q1
Q3
2004 Q1
Q3
2005 Q1
Q3
2006 Q1
Q3
2007 Q1
Q3
2008 Q1
Q3
2009 Q1
Q3
2010 Q1
Q3
2011 Q1
Q3
High and Vocational School Below High School
Tertiary Education Illitrate Workers
Source: TURKSTAT
37
Employment Rate According to Education Level
(Women, % of Working-Age Population, 4-Quarter Moving Average)
100
80
60
40
20
0
2001 Q1
Q3
2002 Q1
Q3
2003 Q1
Q3
2004 Q1
Q3
2005 Q1
Q3
2006 Q1
Q3
2007 Q1
Q3
2008 Q1
Q3
2009 Q1
Q3
2010 Q1
Q3
2011 Q1
Q3
High and Vocational School Below High School
Tertiary Education Illitrate Workers
Source: TURKSTAT
38
Unemployment Rate (%)
16
15
14.0
14
13
11.9
12 11.4
10.8 11.0
11 10.6
10.2 10.3
10
9.2
9
8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010 2011
August August
Source: TURKSTAT 39
Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted, %)
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
2008-1
3
5
7
9
11
2009-1
3
5
7
9
11
2010-1
3
5
7
9
11
2011-1
3
5
7
Source: TURKSTAT 40
INFLATION
41
Average Inflation in Periods (%)
80
71.6
70
62.7
60
50
40
30
20
11.8
10 7.7
0
1983-94 1995-2001 2002-2010 2011 October
Source: TURKSTAT
42
Year End CPI Forecast in 2011-2013 (%)
8
7
6
5.3
5.0 4.9
5
4
3
2
1
0
2011 2012 2013
Source: Ministry of Development, Medium Term Economic Programme 2011-2013, October 2010
43
Inflation: Recent Developments
Food, Energy and Core Inflation
(January 2004 – October 2011, year-on-year percentage change)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Food Energy CPI excluding unprocessed food and energy
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT 44
Inflation: Recent Developments
Services Inflation and Selected Sub-items
25 (January 2006 – October 2011, year-on-year change, percent)
20
15
10
5
0
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-04
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Services Transport Services Rent Restaurants and Hotels
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT
45
Inflation – Overall Trend
Inflation Trend*
(January 2006 – October 2011, percentage change)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
2006-1
4
7
10
2007-1
4
7
10
2008-1
4
7
10
2009-1
4
7
10
2010-1
4
7
10
2011-1
4
7
10
(*) Annualized monthly change of seasonally adjusted SCA-I index (3 month moving average) .
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT
46
Inflation – Main Determinants
Contribution to CPI Inflation
(Percentage Share)
Average of 2004 – 2010 October 2011
50
42.9 50 47.9
40
30.9 40 35.5
30
30
20 17.1
20
9.1
10 10.5
10 6.2
0
Others
Energy
Food
Tobacco
0
Others
Energy
Food
Tobacco
Source: TURKSTAT, Undersecretariat of Treasury
47
Inflation and Expectations*: (Annual % Change)
14
12 CPI 12 Months
24 months
10
8 7.66 6.99
6.4
6 6.9
4
2011 Target: 5.5 %
2 2012 Target: 5.0 %
0
2005-1
4
7
10
2006-1
4
7
10
2007-1
4
7
10
2008-1
4
7
10
2009-1
4
7
10
2010-1
4
7
10
2011-1
4
7
10
2012-1
4
7
10
2013-1
4
7
10
(*) CBRT’s Survey of Expectations as of November-2nd Period
Source: CBRT, TURKSTAT 48
Annual Inflation and Expectations (%)
32
28 Inflation Expectations (November
2011,2nd Period)
24 End year 9,22
20 12 months 6.99
24 months 6.40
16
12
12 months 24
months
8
4 Year End Target
0
1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 710 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Source: CBRT’s Survey of Expectations
49
Price Index of Selected Commodities (2002=100)
590
490
Metal
Rice
390
Energy
290
190
Wheat
90
2004-1
4
7
10
2005-1
4
7
10
2006-1
4
7
10
2007-1
4
7
10
2008-1
4
7
10
2009-1
4
7
10
2010-1
4
7
10
2011-1
4
7
Energy Metal Wheat Rice
Source: IMF 50
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Source: IMF, TURKSTAT
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Developing Countries
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
World
Oct-08
Developed Countries
Jan-09
Apr-09
Inflation Developments in the World
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Turkey
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
51
Turkey’s Rank According to Inflation Figures
90 85
80
70
61
60 56
50 47
37 35 39
40
30
20 16
13
10 7 7 6 7
3
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
The total number of countries is 102. The ranking is in descending order.
Source: TURKSTAT, Economist Intelligence Unit
52
FOREIGN TRADE and
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
53
Annual Exports (Billion USD)
150
132.0 131.7
125
113.9
107.3
102.1
100
85.5
73.5
75
63.2
50 47.3
36.1
25
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
(*) Annualized as of September 2011
Source: TURKSTAT
54
Annual Imports (Billion USD)
250 236.7
225
202.0
200 185.5
170.1
175
150 139.6 140.9
125 116.8
97.5
100
75 69.3
51.6
50
25
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
(*) Annualized as of September 2011
Source: TURKSTAT
55
Export and Import Growth
(Annualized Percentage Change over the Previous Year)
50
40 Exports Imports
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
03 1
3
5
7
9
11
04 1
3
5
7
9
11
05 1
3
5
7
9
11
06 1
3
5
7
9
11
07 1
3
5
7
9
11
08 1
3
5
7
9
11
09 1
3
5
7
9
11
10 1
3
5
7
9
11
11 1
3
5
7
9
Source: TURKSTAT 56
Exports in Europe and Turkey (2001=100)
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
01 Q1
01 Q3
02 Q1
02 Q3
03 Q1
03 Q3
04 Q1
04 Q3
05 Q1
05 Q3
06 Q1
06 Q3
07 Q1
07 Q3
08 Q1
08 Q3
09 Q1
09 Q3
10 Q1
10 Q3
11 Q1
Turkey Hungary Poland Spain
Portugal Italy Euro Area
Source: OECD
57
Export Performance
(Average Annual Growth Rate, 2001-2009)
16
12 11.5
11.1
8
5.1 5.4
4.0
4
2.9
0
World Euro Area Developing Middle East Latin America Turkey
Asia and North
Africa
Source: TURKSTAT, IMF World Economic Outlook September 2011 58
Exports Targets (FOB, Billion USD)
200 185.1
175 165.7
148.5
150 134.8
125
100
75
50
25
0
2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Ministry of Development, Medium Term Economic Programme 2012-2014, October 2011
59
Imports (% of GDP)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Capital goods Intermediate goods Consumption goods
Source: TURKSTAT
60
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jun-02 160
Sep-02
Dec-02
Mar-03
Source: Reuters
Jun-03
Sep-03
Dec-03
Mar-04
Jun-04
Sep-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Brent Oil Price (USD/bbl)
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
61
Impact of Energy Prices to Imports (Billion USD)
50
40
30 35.5
25.2
20.9
20 17.0 17.6
10.5
4.4
10 1.6
0.0
10.7 11.8 12.9 12.7 12.3 13.2
9.1 9.9 10.0
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Reel Energy Imports with 2002 Prices Price Effect Total Enegy Imports
Source: TURKSTAT, Undersecretariat of Treasury
62
Machinery Imports (Billion USD)
50
43.7
45
40 36.4 35.9
35.9
35
29.9 29.4
30
26.1
25 21.9
20
15.7
15 12.2
10
5
0
1996- 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
2002
Average
(*) Annualized as of September 2011
Source: TURKSTAT
63
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Ireland
Norway
Russia
Netherlands
Germany
Hungary
Iceland
Belgium
Denmark
Switzerland
Czech Rep.
Sweden
Japan
Finland
Slovak Rep.
Slovenia
Italy
Source: WTO, IMF World Economic Outlook September 2011
Austria
France
Estonia
Foreign Trade (% of GDP, 2010)
Poland
United States
Spain
Lithuania
United Kingdom
Romania
Luxembourg
Latvia
Turkey
Trend line: Moving Average
Greece
Bulgaria
Portugal
Morocco
Malta
Cyprus
64
Current Account Balance / GDP (%)
2 CA Balance/GDP
CA Balance/GDP (Excluding Energy Price Impact)*
0.5
0
-0.3
-1.8 -1.3
-2 -2.5 -2.5 -2.3
-3.0 -2.9
-2.5
-4 -3.3
-3.7 -4.6
-6 -5.7
-5.9
-6.1 -6.4
-8
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
(*) With 2002 energy prices
Souce: CBRT, Undersecretariat of Treasury
65
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Switzerland
Norway
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Sweden
Germany
Denmark
Russia
Japan
Latvia
Estonia
Finland
Austria
Hungary
Lithuania
Belgium
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook September 2011
Ireland
Slovenia
Bulgaria
France
United Kingdom
United States
Italy
Slovak Republic
Czech Republic
Romania
Morocco
Poland
Trend line: Moving Average
Spain
Current Account Balance (% of GDP, 2010)
Malta
Turkey
Cyprus
Portugal
Iceland
Greece
66
Financing of Current Account Deficit (Billion USD)
2011
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan.-
Sep.
1. Current Account Balance -0.6 -7.5 -14.4 -22.3 -32.2 -38.4 -42.0 -14.0 -47.1 -60.7
2. Total Capital Inflows
(Excluding Currency and 6.9 6.4 20.1 37.7 48.5 48.2 45.3 3.0 42.3 45.2
Deposits and Reserve Assets)
– FDI Inflows 1.1 1.7 2.8 10.0 20.2 22.0 19.5 8.4 9.1 10.9
– External Borrowing of Non-
1.9 2.3 7.7 12.6 17.1 28.7 26.0 -12.9 -4.9 9.1
Bank Private Sector (net)
– Other (net) 3.9 3.1 9.7 15.1 11.2 -2.5 -0.2 7.4 38.0 25.2
3. Errors and Omissions -0.8 4.5 1.1 2.8 0.2 1.8 4.7 5.1 4.2 12.3
4. Currency and Deposits 0.6 0.7 -6.0 -0.3 -10.3 -3.5 -9.1 6.1 13.5 3.2
5. Change in FX Reserves -6.2 -4.0 -0.8 -17.8 -6.1 -8.0 1.1 -0.1 -12.8 -5.4
Source: CBRT 67
Foreign Direct Investment Inflows (Billion USD)
25
22.1
20.2
19.5
20
15
10.0
10 9.3
8.4
5
2.8
1.7
1.1
0
1993- 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2002
Average
Source: CBRT
68
Capital Inflows (Billion USD)
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003 Short-Term Capital
Long-Term Capital
2002 Direct Investments
Portfolio Investments
2001
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Source: CBRT 69
Central Bank’s Gross FX Reserves (Billion USD)
100 $85.2 billion*
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
J 02
J 03
J 04
J 05
J 06
J 07
J 08
J 09
J 10
J 11
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
S
S
S
S
S
S
S
S
S
S
(*) as of November 18, 2011
Source: CBRT 70
Current Account Balance Targets (Billion USD)
2011 2012 2013 2014
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70 -65.4 -67.0 -67.1
-71.7
-80
Source: Ministry of Development, Medium Term Economic Programme 2012-2014, October 2011
71
Current Account Balance Targets (% of GDP)
2011 2012 2013 2014
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-7.0
-8 -7.5
-8.0
-9
-10 -9.4
Source: Ministry of Development, Medium Term Economic Programme 2012-2014, October 2011
72
PUBLIC FINANCE
73
Central Government Budget Deficit (% of GDP)
14
11.9
12 11.5
10
8.8
8
6 5.5
5.2
4 3.6
1.6 1.8 1.7
2 1.5 1.4
1.1 1.0
0.6
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 * 2012 * 2013 * 2014 *
(*) 2011-2014: Medium Term Program targets
Source: Ministry of Finance, 2012-2014 MTP
74
General Government Budget Deficit Excl. Privatization
(% of GDP)
14
12.5
12
10.9
10
8.0
8
5.9
6
4.4
4 3.3
2.5
1.6 1.7 1.6
2 1.3 1.1
0.7
0.2
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014*
(*) 2011-2014: Medium Term Program targets
Source: Ministry of Development, 2012-2014 MTP 75
EU Defined General Government Budget Deficit (% of GDP)
24.5
25
20
15
10.2
10 8.9
6.7
5 4.5 Maastricht Criterion: 3.0 %
2.2
0.6 1.0
-0.8
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
-5
Source: Eurostat
76
0
4
8
12
Ireland 16
Greece
USA
Source: Eurostat
UK
Spain
Latvia
Japan
Portugal
Lithuania
Iceland
Romania
Slovakia
France
Poland
Turkey
Belgium
Czech Rep.
Slovenia
Netherlands
Italy
Bulgaria
For USA, Japan and Greece: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (October 2010) Hungary
Croatia
Malta
Austria
Germany
General Government Deficit (% of GDP, 2009)
Denmark
Finland
Estonia
Sweden
Luxembourg
Maastricht criterion: 3 %
77
Public Sector Borrowing Requirement (% of GDP)
14
12.1
12
10.0
10
8 7.0 7.3
6 5.1
3.6
4
2.3
1.6
2 1.0 1.1 0.8
0.1 0.4
0
-0.1
-2
-1.9
-4
1990- 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014*
2000
Ort.
(*) 2011-2014: Medium Term Program targets
Source: Ministry of Development, 2012-2014 MTP
78
Public Sector Primary Surplus (Program Definition)
(% of GDP)
6 5.5
4.8 5.0
5 4.7
2003-2010 Average: 3.0
4
3.1
3
2 1.6 0.8 1.5
1.2 1.1 1.3
1
0.3
0
-1
-1.0
-2
1993 - 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014*
2002
(*) 2011-2014: Medium Term Program targets
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, 2012-2014 MTP 79
Privatization Implementations* (Billion USD)
50 47.9
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10 8.0
5
0
1985-2002 2003-2010
(*) 1985 – 2002 figures include privatizations done by PA. 2003 – 2010 figures include privatizations done by PA, SDIF and
Ministry of Transportation
Source: PA, SDIF 80
Medium Term Program (% GDP)
2010 2011 2012 2013
Central Government Budget Balance -1.7 -1.5 -1.4 -1.0
Central Government Revenues 22.7 23.1 22.9 22.5
Central Government Expeditures 24.4 24.6 24.2 23.6
Central Government Primary Balance (IMF Definition) 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4
Central Government Revenues (IMF Definition) 22.0 22.1 22.0 21.8
Central Government Primary Expenditures (IMF
Definition)
21.1 21.1 20.9 20.4
Rest Of Public Primary Balance (IMF Definition) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total Public Sector Primary Balance (IMF Definition) 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.5
Source: Ministry of Development, Medium Term Program 2011-2013, October 2011
81
DEBT MANAGEMENT
82
Public Sector Gross Debt Stock (EU Defined, % of GDP)
80
74.0
70 67.7
59.6 Maastricht Criterion: 60 %
60
52.7
50 46.5 46.1
42.2
39.9 40.0
40
30
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
83
General Government Consolidated Gross Debt
(% of GDP, 2010)
200
180
160
140
120
Trend line: moving average
100
Maastricht Criterion: 60 %
80
60
40
20
0
Italy
Germany
Hungary
Austria
South Cyprus
Turkey
Sweden
USA
Lithuania
Denmark
Romania
Czech Republic
Estonia
Greece
Canada
France
Malta
Netherlands
Bulgaria
Portugal
Belgium
United Kingdom
Ireland
Spain
Poland
Finland
Japan
Luxembourg
Latvia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Source: Eurostat, Undersecretariat of Treasury
For USA, Japan, Canada: IMF World Economic Outlook
84
EU Defined Debt Stock (% of GDP)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Euro area (17 countries) 70.0 68.4 66.3 70.1 79.8 85.4
EU (27 countries) 62.8 61.5 59.0 62.5 74.7 80.2
Greece 100.0 106.1 107.4 113.0 129.3 144.9
Italy 105.9 106.6 103.1 105.8 115.5 118.4
Belgium 92.1 88.1 84.1 89.3 95.9 96.2
Portugal 62.8 63.9 68.3 71.6 83.0 93.3
Germany 68.0 67.6 65.2 66.7 74.4 83.2
France 66.4 63.7 64.2 68.2 79.0 82.3
Hungary 61.8 65.7 67.0 72.9 79.7 81.3
United Kingdom 42.5 43.4 44.4 54.8 69.6 79.9
Austria 64.6 62.8 60.2 63.8 69.5 71.8
Netherlands 51.8 47.4 45.3 58.5 60.8 62.9
Spain 43.0 39.6 36.2 40.1 53.8 61.0
Turkey 52.7 46.5 39.9 40.0 46.1 42.2
Source: Eurostat, Undersecretariat of Treasury, 31 October 2011 85
Public Debt Stock Targets
(EU Definition, % of GDP)
38
37.0
37
36
35.0
35
34
33
32.0
32
31
30
2012 2013 2014
Source: Ministry of Development, Medium Term Economic Programme 2012-2014, October 2011
86
Public Sector Net Debt Stock (% of GDP)
70
61.5
60 55.2
49.1
50
35.4 41.7
23.9
40 19.1 34.0
10.4 32.5
29.5 28.2 28.7
30 6.5 2.7
3.3 2.9 0.8
20
31.3 30 31.3 29.9 27.9
26.2 27.6 26.2 25.3
10
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
TL FX Denominated/Indexed
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
87
Public Sector Net Debt Stock
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1 2011 Q2
(Billion TL)
I. Public Sector Gross Debt Stock 333.0 351.3 365.9 355.5 408.2 465.7 496.9 509.2 519.6
•Central Goverment 316.5 331.5 345.1 333.5 380.3 441.5 473.6 486.0 496.2
•Rest of the Public Sector 16.5 19.8 20.8 22.0 27.9 24.2 23.3 23.2 23.4
II. Assets and Public Sector Deposits 58.4 81.0 107.7 107.1 140.2 155.8 179.3 189.3 219.7
•Central Bank Net Assets 27.9 30.8 45.7 41.8 60.4 66.0 86.2 89.2 104.7
•Public Sector Deposits 17.2 32.2 38.3 34.6 41.5 47.7 47.2 52.7 65.6
•Unemployment Insurance Fund 13.3 18.0 23.7 30.7 38.4 42.1 45.9 47.4 49.4
III. Public Sector Net Debt Stock 274.6 270.3 258.2 248.4 268.0 309.9 317.6 319.9 299.9
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
88
Public Net Debt Stock (Billion TL)
317.6 319.9
320
309.9
300
299.9
280 274.6
270.3 268.0
258.2
260 248.4
251.0
240
215.6
220
200
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011
Q1 Q2
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
89
Central Government Interest Payments / GDP (%)
20
14.8
15 12.9
10.1
10
7.0
6.1 5.8
5.3 5.6
5 4.4
3.3
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
(*) 2011: Forecast
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 90
Central Government Interest Payments / Tax Revenues (%)
90 85.7
80
70.9
70
60 56.3
50
40 38.2
33.4 31.9 30.1 30.9
30
22.9
20
17.1
10
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
(*) 2011: Forecast
Source: Ministry of Finance
91
Interest Composition of Central Government Gross Debt
(%)
100
46.2 46.0 44.3 43.1 46.6 44.0 41.0
75 55.0 51.2 49.9
50
53.8 54.0 55.7 56.9 53.4 56.0 59.0
25 45.0 48.8 50.1
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
October
Fixed Floating
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
92
Currency Composition of Central Government Gross Debt (%)
100
31.3 29.1 26.7 28.9
37.6 37.2 33.8
46.3 41.5
75
58.1
50
68.7 70.9 73.3 71.1
62.4 62.8 66.2
53.7 58.5
25
41.9
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
October
TL Foreign Exch.
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 93
Sensitivity of Gross Public Debt to Shocks
2001 2010
Change in real exchange rate app/dep + / - 2.2 points + / - 0.6 points
by 5 percentage points
Change in TL interest rate by*
10 percent + / - 2.0 points + / - 0.3 points
25 percent + / - 5.0 Points + / - 0.7 points
Change in GDP growth rate by + / - 1.5 points + / - 0.8 points
2 percentage points
Change in Primary Surplus/GDP ratio + / - 1.0 points + / - 1.0 points
by 1 percentage point
(*) Reflects percent change in TL interest rate in succeeding years.
Note: The effects of scenarios on “Gross Public Debt Stock/GDP” ratio measured by deviations from baseline
scenarios (as defined by ESA standards) based on end-2001 and end-2010 stock realizations.
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
94
Share of Foreign Residents in Domestic Debt Stock (%)
18
15.8
16
13.6 13.4
14 12.5
12
10.3
10 10.3 8.6
8
7.1
6
4 4.4
2
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sep-11
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
95
Average Maturity of Borrowing
Domestic Borrowing (months) Eurobond Issuance (years)
30
50
44 45
45 25
22.4
40 20.6 20.2
35
35 34 20
32 17.6
16.5
30 28 28 14.8
15 14.2
25 12.2
20 9.5 10.1 9.9 10.0
10 9.1
15 8.6 8.2
15 12 7.0 6.6
9 5.0
10 5
5
0 0
2011*
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011*
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Euro Dollar Yen
(*) As of November 25
Source: Undersecretariat ofTreasury
96
Duration of TL-Denominated Domestic Debt Stock
(Months)
14
13.4
13.2 13.2
12.8 12.9 12.8
12.7
12.6 12.5
12.3
12
10.4
10.2 10.1 10.8
10.6
10 9.7 9.8
10.3
9.3 9.2 9.2
9.0
8.5
8.2 8.1
8.0
8 7.5
6.6
6
Aug-10
Nov-10
Aug-11
Feb-10
Jun-10
Feb-11
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
May-10
May-11
Mar-10
Mar-11
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
97
Duration of External Bond Stock (Years)
7.0
6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6
6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4
6.3
6.2 6.2
6.0 5.9
5.9
5.6
5.5
5.0 4.9
4.5
4.1
4.0
Aug-10
Nov-10
Aug-11
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Feb-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Feb-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
May-10
May-11
Mar-10
Mar-11
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
98
Time to Maturity of Cash Domestic Debt Stock (Months)
35 32.3
30.9
30
25.7 24.4 25.0
25 22.3
19.6
20
15 12.8 12.4 11.8
10
5
0
r
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
e
ob
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
ct
O
11
20
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
99
Cost of External Borrowing (%)
DOLLAR EURO
13 13
12 12
11 10.7 11
10.1 9.9
10 9.9
10
9 9
8.1
8 7.3 8
7.3 7.3 7.0
7
6.9
6.2 7 6.3
5.8 6.0
6 6
5.3 5.4 5.0
5 5
4 4
3 3
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2010
(*) As of November 25, 2011
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
100
TRY Denominated Zero Coupon Borrowing Rates
(Comp. Ann., %)
80
75
70
Monthly Average
65 Yearly Cumulative
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
J M S J M S J M S J M S J M S J M S J M S J M S J M S J M E
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Source: Undersecretariat ofTreasury
101
Real Interest Rates (Comp. Ann., %)
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
2002-1
5
9
2003-1
5
9
2004-1
5
9
2005-1
5
9
2006-1
5
9
2007-1
5
9
2008-1
5
9
2009-1
5
9
2010-1
5
9
2011-1
5
9
Note: The real interest rates are calculated by using 12 months ahead CPI rates.
Calculations are based on zero coupon Treasury auction results and Survey of Expectations of CBRT.
Source: CBRT, Undersecretariat of Treasury
102
Net Financing from IMF (Billion SDR)
10
8.0
8
6
5.0
4
2.6
2
1.0
0.4 0.0
0
-0.5 -0.6
-1.4 -1.3
-2 -1.8
-2.4
-2.6
-3.1
-4 -3.6
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
103
Credit Outstanding to IMF (Billion SDR)
20
16.2
16 16.2
13.8
12 11.2
10.2
8
7.2
5.5
4.5 5.1
3.2 3.6
4
1.9
0.6 0.5
0.0
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
104
Treasury Guaranteed Debt Stock (Million USD)
8,361
8,000
7,468
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
(*) as of June 30, 2011
Source: Treasury 105
Treasury Guaranteed Debt Stock
Million USD 2011 Q2
PUBLIC 4,874
LOCAL GOVERNMENTS 1,325
FUNDS 34
PUBLIC BANKS 2,271
SOEs 1,236
OTHER 8
PRIVATE 3,487
BANKS 3,425
COMPANIES 62
GENERAL TOTAL 8,361
Source: Treasury
106
The Ratio of Undertaken Treasury Guarantees to Total
Guaranteed Payments (%)
100
80
60 52
40
27
25 25
18 20 18
17
20 9
4
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
August
Source: Treasury
107
The Ratio of Undertaken Treasury Guarantees to Total
Guaranteed Payments by Institutions (%)
100
83
80 74 76
60
50
36 39
40 33 34
27 25
21 21 19
17
20
5 5 6
0
0
Total Local Special Budgeted SOEs Funds Banks
Administrations Inst.
1992-2002 2003-2005 2006-2008 2009-2010 2011 August
Source: Treasury
108
The Stock of Treasury Receivables (Billion TL)
30
28.1
25.9
25.6
25.3
25 23.4
22.4
21.2 20.8
20.9
19.3
20
19.1
10.0
17.4 17.0 19.1
15 13.8 12.4 13.3 15.3
13.6
13.4
10 7.5
6.8
5.6 12.9
5 4.4 8.8 9.0
3.8 8.0 8.2 8.3
6.3 7.1 7.3 6.8
5.9
1.8 2.4
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan-
October
2011
Source: Treasury
Overdue Projected 109
The Stock of Treasury Receivables (October 2011)
By Borrowers By Sources
On-Lent
Local 38.9%
Governments
56.9%
SOE's
Guaranteed
25.4%
29.7%
Built-
Operate-
Banks Transfer
3.6% (BOT)
Others
Domestic Projects
14.1%
Debt 15.4%
16.0%
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
110
Collections (Million TL)
7,000
6,000
5,000
5,249
4,000
3,000 3,084
2,000 699
2,188 3,198
2,641
1,970
1,000 1,514 1,503 1,561
2,053 1,219 1,794 1,613
417
0 35
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
er
ob
ct
O
n-
Ja
Non-cash Cash
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 111
Gross External Debt Stock (Billion USD)
2011 2011
Billion $ 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Q1 Q2
TOTAL 169.9 207.7 249.5 280.4 268.4 289.4 298.7 309.6
SHORT TERM 38.3 42.6 43.1 53.1 49.7 78.2 77.3 85.0
LONG TERM 131.6 165.1 206.3 227.3 218.7 211.2 221.4 224.7
PUBLIC SECTOR 70.4 71.6 73.5 78.3 83.5 89.0 93.5 95.3
SHORT TERM 2.1 1.8 2.2 3.2 3.6 4.3 5.0 5.8
LONG TERM 68.3 69.8 71.4 75.0 79.9 84.7 88.5 89.5
CBRT 15.4 15.7 15.8 14.1 13.3 11.8 12.3 12.1
SHORT TERM 2.8 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6
LONG TERM 12.7 13.1 13.5 12.2 11.5 10.3 10.6 10.5
PRIVATE SECTOR 84.1 120.5 160.2 188.0 171.6 188.6 193.0 202.2
SHORT TERM 33.4 38.3 38.7 48.0 44.3 72.4 70.7 77.5
LONG TERM 50.7 82.2 121.5 140.0 127.3 116.2 122.3 124.7
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
112
Gross External Debt Stock / GDP
60
56.2
50 47.3
41.2 43.5
39.5
40 38.5 39.4
35.3 37.8
30
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
113
Turkey’s Net External Debt (% of GDP)
50
39.9
40 38.4
31.6
30
26.4
23.6
20.6 23.0
20.5 20.6 20.4
20
10
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
114
External Debt Ratios (%)
2011 2011
% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1 Q2
GROSS EXTERNAL
DEBT STOCK / GDP % 35.3 39.5 38.5 37.8 43.5 39.4
PRIVATE SECTOR
EXTERNAL DEBT / GDP
% 17.5 22.9 24.7 25.3 27.8 25.7
GROSS EXTERNAL
DEBT / EXPORT (FOB) 231.3 242.9 232.6 212.4 262.7 254.1 250.3 248.2
PRIVATE SECTOR /
EXPORT (FOB) 114.4 140.8 149.3 142.4 168.0 165.6 161.7 162.1
CBRT RESERVES
(GROSS) / GROSS
EXTERNAL DEBT 29.7 29.3 29.4 25.3 26.3 27.9 29.1 30.3
CBRT RESERVES
(GROSS) / SHORT TERM
EXTERNAL DEBT 132.0 142.9 170.0 133.7 142.3 103.2 112.3 110.3
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
115
FINANCIAL SECTOR
116
Banking Sector: Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)
35
30.9
30 28.2
25.1
23.7
25 21.9
20.6
18.9 18.0 18.9
20 16.4
15
10
5
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011-9
Source: BRSA
117
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
2005-12
2006-02
2006-04
2006-06
2006-08
2006-10
Source: CBRT, BRSA
2006-12
2007-02
Legal limit 8 percent
2007-04
Target rate 12 percent
2007-06
2007-08
2007-10
2007-12
2008-02
2008-04
2008-06
2008-08
2008-10
2008-12
2009-2
2009-4
Operational
risk included
2009-6
2009-8
2009-10
2009-12
2010-2
2010-4
2010-6
Banking Sector: Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)
2010-8
2010-10
2010-12
2011-2
2011-4
2011-6
2011-8
118
Banking Sector: Capital Adequacy Ratio in Selected
Emerging Markets (%, 2010)
25
20.5
20 19.0
18.1 18.0 17.8
17.2 16.9
16.0 15.5 15.3
15.2 14.7 14.6
14.3 14.1 14.1 13.8
15
12.2
10
5
0
Turk e y
Tha ila nd
Hunga ry
Bra zil
Cze c h Rp.
P ola nd
Rus s ia
Colom bia
Indone s ia
India
Chile
Be la rus
Rom a nia
Ma la y s ia
Kore a
Me x ic o
Ma lta
China
Source: IMF-FSI, BRSA
119
Banking Sector: Free Capital*/ Equity (%)
90 81.4 81.2
77.0 79.6
80 72.6 75.3
70 65.7
60 56.0
51.0
50
36.3
40
30
20
10
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-9
(*) Free Capital = Total Equity – (Fixed Assets + Affiliates, Subsidiaries and Joint Ventures)
Source: BRSA
120
Banking Sector: Return on Equity (%)
30
24.8
22.8
21.0
20.0
20 18.2 18.6
15.8 15.4
11.3 12.1 11.3
10
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010-9 2011-9
Source: BRSA
121
Banking Sector: Loans to Assets (%)
55 52.2 54.5
49.1 50.2
47.1
43.8
45
37.8
35 32.4
26.5
25 23.0
15
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-9
Source: BRSA
122
Banking Sector: FX Position (Million USD)
460 408
320
187 161
180 141
68
16
40
-100 -63
-71
-240
-217
-380
-520
-549
-660
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
(*) As of November, 18
Source: BRSA
123
Banking Sector: Asset Quality (NPL Ratio, %)
24
21.2
20
16
11.5
12
7.6
8 6.0
4.7 5.3
3.7 3.5 3.7 3.7
4 2.7
1.5
0.8 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.6
0.4 0.5
0 0.5
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-9
Gross Net
Source: BRSA
124
Firms Total Debt / Shareholder’s Equity and Interest
Coverage
(Operating Profit / Interest Payment) Ratios (%)
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total Debt / Shareholder's Equity Interest Coverage Ratio
(*) Provisional Statistics
Sorce: CBRT Company Accounts 125
Household Liabilities (% of GDP)
70 66 66
62 63
61
60
50
40
30
20 17
14 15
12
10
10
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Turkey Euro Area
Source: CBRT, ECB
126
Total Housing Loans (% of GDP)
100
83.6
80 2001 2010
71.8
60.3
60 52.1
40.7
40 29.6
20
6.2
0.2
0
UK US Euro Zone Turkey*
Source: FED, ECB, Eurostat, Bank of England, UK National Statistics, CBRT, TURKSTAT, BRSA, HDAT
*Total housing loans for 2010 comprises of housing credits extended by banks and consumer finance companies as well as
Household liabilities to HDAT due to HDAT’s housing sales with long term maturity.
127
MARKET INDICATORS
128
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
Jan-03
Source: CBRT
Apr-03
Jul-03
Oct-03
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Foreign Exchange Rates (TL/USD)
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
129
4
12
20
28
36
44
52
60
68
76
Jan-03
Apr-03
Jul-03
Oct-03
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
Jan-05
Interest Rates (%)
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Domestic Debt Securities Secondary Market Rates
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
130
Source: ISE
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
Jan-03
Apr-03
Jul-03
Oct-03
Jan-04
Apr-04
ISE 100 Index
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
131
Spreads on Turkey’s External Debt (bp)
1.200
1.000
(EMBI+ Turkey) - (EMBI+)
800 EMBI+ Turkey
EMBI+
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
N-06
M-07
N-07
M-08
N-08
M-09
N-09
M-10
N-10
M-11
N-11
D-00
J-01
D-01
J-02
D-02
J-03
D-03
J-04
D-04
J-05
D-05
J-06
Source: JP Morgan 132
Compounded Interest Rates (%)
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
January-05
April-05
Source: CBRT, Treasury
July-05
October-05
January-06
April-06
July-06
October-06
January-07
April-07
July-07
October-07
Secondary Market Rates
January-08
April-08
July-08
October-08
January-09
April-09
July-09
Secondary Market and CBRT Policy Rate
October-09
January-10
April-10
CBRT Policy Rates
July-10
October-10
January-11
April-11
July-11
October-11
133
B
BB
B+
BB-
B-
S
P
N
N
P
N
S
N
P
P
P
S
S
N
S
Jan-03
Jul-03
Source: Bloomberg
Jan-04
Jul-04
Credit Rating
Jan-05
Aug-05
Feb-06
Aug-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Standard & Poor’s Credit Rating
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Nov-11
134
Rating Map (as of November 25, 2011)
Moody's Standard & Poor's Fitch
A2 Poland, Malta, Italy A Czech Rep., A Israel, Estonia
Israel, Malta, S. Korea, Italy
A3 Malaysia, S. Africa A- Malaysia, Poland A- Malaysia, Poland,
Baa1 Mexico, Montenegro, Lithuania BBB+ S. Africa, Kazakhstan, BBB+ S. Africa, Ireland
Russia, Thailand, Bahrain Thailand, Ireland
Baa2 Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Brazil BBB Bulgaria, Mexico BBB Lithuania, Mexico, Brazil, Kazakhstan
Bulgaria Russia, Lithuania, Bahrain, Peru, Brazil Russia, Tunisia, Thailand, Bahrain, S. Cyprus
Baa3 Armenia,Croatia, India, Iceland BBB- Colombia, Iceland, India, BBB- Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary
Latvia, Romania, Panama, Peru, Colombia Morocco, Panama, Hungary, Croatia India, Morocco, Panama, Peru,
Kosta Rika, Costa Rica, Tunisia, Tunisia, Portugal, Romania, Uruguay Latvia, Colombia, Romania
Ba1 Albania, Indonesia,Uruguay, Hungary, BB+ Azerbaijan, Indonesia BB+ Turkey (stable),
Guatemala, Morocco, Ireland Latvia Guatemala, Macedonia, Costa Rica, Uruguay,
Iceland, Indonesia, Philippines, Portugal,
Ba2 Turkey (positive) BB Turkey (positive), Costa Rica BB El Salvador, Egypt
Jordan, Papua New Guinea, Portugal Guatemala, Jordan,
Suriname, El Salvador, Philippines Macedonia, Philippines, Serbia
Ba3 Georgia, Angola BB- Gabon, Mongolia, Cook Islands, Angola, Georgia, BB- Gabon, Lesotho, Nigeria,
Vietnam, El Salvador, Suriname, Paraguay, Suriname Serbia, Armenia, Angola, Sri Lanka
B1 Fiji, Lebanon, Vietnam, Egypt, B+ Bosnia & H., Sri Lanka, Kenya, Venezuela, B+ Georgia, Iran, Argentina, Ghana,
Mongolia, Sri Lanka, Paraguay, Bolivia
Mozambique, Nigeria, Ukraine, Bolivia, Egypt Venezuela,Vietnam, Bolivia, Mongolia,
B2 Bosnia & H., Moldova, B Belize, Paraguay, B Lebanon, Mozambique,
Venezuela, Turkmenistan, Ukraine Lebanon,Argentina, Ghana, Fiji Suriname, Ukraina
B3 Argentina, Belize, Nicaragua B- Jamaica, Belarus B- Ecuador, Jamaica
Jamaica, Pakistan, Belarus Madagascar, Pakistan, Ecuador
Caa1 Cuba CCC+ CCC+
Caa2 Ecuador CCC CCC Greece
Caa3 CCC- CCC-
Ca Greece CC Greece DDD
SD D
Source: Bloomberg
135
EMBI+ Index: Comparison with Other Countries
Change (bp) (02.01.2008 – 25.11.2011)
Colombia 13
Brazil 21
Phillipines 37
Mexico 53
S. Africa 94
Turkey 136
EMBI+ 153
Russia 166
Argentina 580
Ukraine 612
Venezuela 774
-50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800
Source: Bloomberg 136
Equity Markets (Emerging and Mature Markets)
% Change (02.01.2008-25.11.2011)
China -54.9
Japan -53.4
Chech Rep. -38.3
Hungary -36.4
Poland -32.3
Russia -30.9
India -23.3
USA (DJI) -13.9
Brazil -12.6
Turkey -6.6
S. Korea -4.2
Malaysia -0.3
S. Africa 6.3
Mexico 20.5
-60 -55 -50 -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Source: Bloomberg , JP Morgan 137
Currency Markets (Against USD)
% Change (02.01.2008 – 25.11.2011)
Japan 29.1
China 12.5
Malaysia 3.4
Brazil -6.8
Czech Rep. -9.8
Euro -11.1
S. Korea -24.3
S. Africa -25.2
Russia -28.7
Mexico -30.4
India -32.5
Hungary -37.9
Poland -39.8
Turkey -61.2
-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
Source: Bloomberg 138
INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
139
Starting a Business (Number of Procedures)
Bulgaria 4
Hungary 4
OECD 6
South Africa 6
Turkey 6
Croatia 6
Mexico 6
Poland 6
Eastern Europe &Central Asia 6
Thailand 7
Czech Republic 9
India 12
Chine 14
Brasil 15
0 4 8 12 16 20
Source: World Bank Doing Business Report, 2011
140
Starting a Business (Duration, Days)
Hungary 4
Turkey 6
Croatia 7
Mexico 9
OECD 14
Eastern Europe& Central Asia 16
Bulgaria 18
Czech Republic 20
South Africa 22
India 29
Russia 30
Poland 32
Thailand 32
China 38
0 10 20 30 40 50
Source: World Bank Doing Business Report, 2011
141
Starting a Business (Cost, % of GDP Per Capita)
Poland 18
Turkey 17
Mexico 12
Croatia 9
Czech Republic 9
Eastern Europe & Central Asia 9
Hungary 8
Brasil 7
South Africa 6
Thailand 6
OECD 5
China 5
Russia 4
Bulgaria 2
0 5 10 15 20
Source: World Bank Doing Business Report, 2011
142
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Mexico
35
Turkey
5.7
Slovak R.
(*) 2007 data
Greece*
Poland*
Korea
Czech R.
Portugal
Source: OECD Factbook 2010
Japan
Spain
Hungary
France
Ireland
Netherlands*
Germany
USA
Austria
OECD*
13.2
Luxemburg
Switzerland
England
Italy
Canada
Belgium
Taxes on Income and Profit (% of GDP, 2008)
Finland
Sweden
Iceland
Australia*
N. Zealand
Norway
Denmark
143
Tax Revenue Comparisons (% of GDP, 2008)
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Total Tax Revenue Income Taxes Taxes on Goods and
Services
Turkey OECD Comparative Group*
(*) Includes Mexico, Korea, Czech Rep., Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Rep. and Spain.
Source: OECD, Factbook 2010 144
RELATIONS with the IMF and EU
145
Relations with the IMF
Amount Amount Projected
Approved Drawn Repurchases Payments
(Million (Million (Million SDR) (Million
Arrangements Duration SDR) SDR) SDR)
17th Stand-By (12.1999 - 02.2002) 15,038 11,739 11,739 0
Arrangement
18th Stand-by
Arrangement (02.2002 - 02.2005) 12,821 11,914 11,914 0
19th Stand-by
Arrangement (05.2005 - 05.2008) 6,662 6,662 4,695 1,967
TOTAL 34,522 30,315 28,348 1,967
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 146
EU Accession Process
I. Screening process: 3 October 2005 - 13 October 2006
II. Accession Talks :
For 1 Chapter Negotiations were opened and
1- Science and Research provisionally closed
For 12 Chapters Negotiations were opened
provisionally but closing
1- Enterprise and Industrial Policy,2- Statistics, benchmarks
3- Financial Control, 4- Consumer and Health Protection,
5- Trans-European Networks, 6- Company Law (fulfillment of opening benchmarks),
7-Intellectual Property Law (fulfillment of opening benchmarks)
8- Free Movement of Capital 9- Information Society & Media
10-Taxation, 11- Environment, 12- Food Safety, Veterinary & Phytosanitary Policy
For 2 Chapters
1- Education and Culture,
2- Economic and Monetary Policy Submission of our Position Papers
For 8 Chapters Opening benchmarks
Remaining chapters
Awaiting for the screening reports
147
SOCIAL SECURITY
148
Social Security Reform
Main Features
Uniform norm and standards for workers. civil servants and the self
employed
Gradual increase in retirement age to 65
Decrease in accrual rate to 2 %.
The valorization of past earnings by CPI+30 % of GDP real growth
Indexation of pensions to CPI
Universal health insurance
A new health scheme for the poor as of 2012
Introduction of copayments for health care
Global budget in some health expenditures
149
Accrual Rates in Various Countries
Turkey 2.75
England
Canada
Poland
Japan
Norway
Germany
Hungary
USA
Switzerland
Iceland
Sweden
Belgium
Czeck Rep.
Korea
Finland
Slovak Rep.
Netherlands
Austria
France
Luksembourg
Italy
Turkey(Post) 2.00
Portugal
Malta
Spain
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
Source: Ministry of Labour and Social Security, Base on 20 years working period, 2008
150
Decrease in Pension System Deficits
(2007-2075,% of GDP)
Before the Reform
After the Reform
Source: World Bank, 2007
151
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Turkey 70
45
Greece
Italy
Belgium
Hungary
Korea
Luxembourg
France
Czech Republic
Slovak Republic
Source: OECD, Pensions at a Glance, 2011
Australia
Austria
Retirement Age for Men
Canada
Denmark
Finland
Germany
Ireland
Japan
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Poland
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
United States
Iceland
152
Norway
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Turkey 70
41
Greece
Slovak Republic
Czech Republic
Hungary
Italy
Austria
Belgium
Korea
Luxembourg
Source: OECD, Pensions at a Glance, 2011
Poland
United Kingdom
France
Australia
Retirement Age for Women
Switzerland
Canada
Denmark
Finland
Germany
Ireland
Japan
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
United States
Iceland
153
Norway
10
15
20
25
30
35
Poland
Slovak Republic
Norway
Portugal
Denmark
Hungary
Finland
Iceland
United States
Ireland
Source: OECD, Pensions at a Glance, 2011
United Kingdom
Czech Republic
Germany
Mexico
Netherlands
Austria
Spain
Sweden
New Zealand
Canada
Australia
Switzerland
Japan
Korea
Luxembourg
Life Expectancy After Pensionable Age for Men
Belgium
France
Italy
Greece
154
31
Turkey
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Norway
19
United States
Mexico
Denmark
Portugal
Netherlands
Ireland
Germany
Finland
Iceland
Source: OECD, Pensions at a Glance, 2011
Sweden
New Zealand
Spain
Canada
Hungary
Poland
Czech Republic
Switzerland
Australia
Korea
United Kingdom
Luxembourg
Slovak Republic
Austria
Belgium
Italy
France
Life Expectancy After Pensionable Age for Women
Japan
Greece
155
Turkey
35
Net Replacement Rates
Low Earner High Earner
Mean Earner
Japan Mexico Ireland
Germany Ireland New Zealand
Mexico Japan United
Ireland United Kingdom Mexico
OECD Avg. 82.8%
OECD Avg. 68.8%
OECD Avg. 63.4%
United States New Zealand Japan
Sw eden Korea Korea
United Kingdom United States Canada
Poland Sw eden Switzerland
Slovak Republic Canada United States
France Germany Australia
Korea Estonia Czech
Finland Australia Norway
Portugal France Estonia
Estonia Norw ay Belgium
Chile Sw itzerland France
Italy Belgium Israel
Sw itzerland Chile Germany
New Zealand Czech Republic Chile
Norw ay Finland Finland
Belgium Poland Poland
Spain Portugal Portugal
Slovenia Slovak Republic Sweden
Australia Italy Slov ak
Canada Israel Italy
Austria Spain Denmark
Czech Republic Slovenia Austria
Hungary Denmark Spain
Israel Austria Slov enia
Luxembourg Turkey Luxembourg
Netherlands Luxembourg Iceland
Turkey Netherlands Turkey
Greece Iceland Netherlands
Denmark Hungary Hungary
Iceland Greece Greece
10 35 60 85 110 135 10 35 60 85 110 135 10 35 60 85 110 135
Source: OECD, Pensions at a Glance, 2011 156
LABOR MARKET
157
Labor Market Reform
Reduction of labor cost
5 points of social security premium is covered by state.
Benefiting of 5 points of social security premium incentive, simultaneously with other employment incentives is
enabled.
Employer contribution of newly employed young and female workers is covered by Unemployment Insurance
Fund.
The employers’ share of social security premium for disabled workers is covered from the budget.
The application area of short-term payment is extended to sectoral and regional crises together with general
economic crises.
Daily short time working allowance that was 40% of daily average gross income is increased to 60%.
Active labor market programs
The budget allocation for active labor market program is increased by four times and raised to 1.5 billion TL per
year. (In previous implementation it was 30% of state contribution now it is 30% of total premium income)
Elimination of non-financial burdens:
Obligation of ex-convicts employment is abolished.
Sports facility, kindergarden, health and security unit’s requirements regulated in the Labor Law are alleviated.
Increasing Flexibility of Labor Market
Part-time workers will be eligible for retirement benefits by indebting their remaining hours from regular working
hours.
Part-time workers are covered by Unemployment Insurance Fund as regular workers.
Struggle with informality
Penalties to be imposed are increased and strengthening audits are provided.
It is ensured that green cards are not cancelled in case green card holders start to work under law No:5510
regardless of their income.
158
Tax Wedge After Reform
(Workers Earn 67% of Average Income, Married with 2 Children)
50
40 38
36
34
30
20
10
0
Australia
Austria
USA
Turkey
TUR-09
Mexico
Belgium
Germany
Hungary
France
Italy
Netherlands
Greece
Denmark
EU-19
Canada
Norwey
Korea
Spain
Switzerland
UK
Slovak Rep.
Czech Rep.
OECD-avg.
Portugal
Finland
Luxembour
Poland
Japan
Iceland
Ireland
Sweden
N.Zealand
Not: TUR-09 involves the 5 point reduction in employer’s social security contribution and minimum living allowance.
Source: OECD Taxing Wages, 2009 159
Income Tax Plus Employee’s and Employer’s Social
Security Contributions* (% of labor costs, 2008)
Belgium
Hungary
Germany
France
Austria
Italy
Netherland
Sw eden
Finland
Czech Rep.
Greece
Denmark
Poland
Turkey
Spain
Norw ey
Portugal
OECD
Luxembour
Canada
USA
Japan
Sw itzerlan
Iceland
Australia
UK
Ireland
N.Zealand
Korea
Mexico
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Income Tax Employee's SSC Employer's SSC
(*) Single without children at the income level of average worker
160
Source: OECD Taxing Wages 2009
Number of Insured (Million Persons)
16
2.5
14 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.2
2.4
12 2.4 3.0
2.4 2.4 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9
2.4 3.4 3.4
2.2
10
3.4
3.4 3.4
8 3.3 3.3
6
10.0 9.9 10.9
9.0 9.2 9.5 9.6
4 7.0 7.7
6.1 6.6 6.8
2
0
t
t
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
us
us
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
g
g
Au
Au
10
11
20
20
SSK Bağ-Kur Emekli Sandığı
Source: Social Security Instutions, Montly Statistical Bulletin August 2011
Social Security Coverage (Million Persons)
(Employees and Dependents)
60
9.2 9.8
9.5 9.3 9.0 9.1
9.5
50 9.5
9.3 9.4
9.0 15.2 15.1 15.5
8.6 16.4 15.0 14.6 14.7
40
16
15.9 16.2
30 15.3 15.6
20 36.8 37.2
33.5 33.8 33.1 34.6 35.9
25.3 26.9 29.4
22.6 24.0
10
0
t
t
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
us
us
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
g
g
Au
Au
10
11
20
20
SSK Bağ-Kur Emekli Sandığı
Source: Social Security Instutions, Monthly Statistical Bulletin August 2011
Informal Employment Ratio by Provinces
Informal Employment Ratio (<35%) Informal Employment Ratio (55-70%)
Informal Employment Ratio (35-45%) Informal Employment Ratio (>70%)
Informal Employment Ratio (45-55%)
Source: Ministry of Labour and Social Security, 2007
163
Distribution of Employment by Economic Activity (%)
Agriculture Industry Services
Turkey 23.7 26.8 49.5
Spain 4.4 28.0 67.7
Canada 2.4 21.5 76.1
Japan 4.2 27.4 68.4
Italy 3.7 30.0 66.2
UK 1.5 21.3 77.2
Horea 7.2 25.5 67.3
Mexico 13.0 27.1 59.9
Poland 14.7 30.7 54.4
Czech Rep. 3.3 40.7 56.0
Hungary 4.5 32.4 63.1
Source: OECD, 2008
164
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Canada
USA
UK
Slovak Rep.
Ireland
Australia
Switzerland
Czech Rep.
OECD Avg. 1.77
Hungary
Netherlands
Japan
1998
N. Zeland
Denmark
Source: OECD Labour Force Statistics Database, 2010
Austria
Sweden
Korea
Germany
Spain
Poland
EU-19
Finland
2008
Italy
Belgium
Portugal
Employment (Index Scale of 0-6 from Least to Most Restrictive)
Norvey
Greece
France
Mexico
Luxembourg
Restrictiveness of Protection Legislation on Temporary
165
Turkey
4.88
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Turkey 90
58,4
11,1
Slovakia
Korea
Denmark
Finland
Hungary
United States
Canada
Greece
Portugal
Polonia
Czech Rep.
Japan
Source: OECD, Labor Force Statistics Database, 2011
Norway
Australia
Part-time Employment as a Proportion of Total Employment
OECD Total
New Zealand
Part-time Employment (%, 2009)
Netherlands
EU Total
United Kingdom
EU 19
Ireland
EU 15
Italy
Spain
France
Germany
Austria
Belgium
Switzerland
Women's Share in Part-time Employment
Luxembourg
166
Severance Payments Burden (2010)
(As weeks of Payment for 20 Years Work)
100
90
87
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Portugal
USA
Bulgaria
Romania
Russia
Canada
Hungary
France
Greece
Germany
Turkey
Poland
Ireland
Spain
Czech Rep.
Brazil
UK
Source: World Bank, Doing Business in 2011
167
R&D
168
Turkey: R&D Expenditures (Current PPP, USD)
In 2002, 3 billion dollars.
In 2009, 8.7 billion dollars.
R&D expenditures increased by 190 % between 2002
and 2009
Source: OECD, Main Science and Technology Indicators, 2010/1
169
R&D Expenditure* (Million TL)
10,000
9,268
9,000
8,000 8,087
6,893
7,000
6,000
6,091
4,400
5,000
4,000
2,886 2,900 2,898
3,835
3,000
3,051
2,701
2,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
* 2010 prices
Source: TURKSTAT
170
R&D Expenditure per Capita (PPP, USD)
140
127
120
120 108
100
100
78
80 67
60 53
44 46 46 42
39
40 32
20
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: TUBITAK
171
Turkey: Number of FTE* R&D Personnel
In 2002, 28,964 people.
In 2009, 73,521 people.
Number of R&D personnel increased by 154 %
between 2002-2009
(*)Full Time Equivalent
Source: OECD, TURKSTAT, TUBİTAK
172
Turkey: Number of FTE R&D Personnel
80,000
73,521
67,244
70,000
63,377
60,000 54,444
50,000 49,252
39,960
40,000
38,308
28,964
27,003
30,000
27,698
20,000
10,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: TURKSTAT
173
Turkey: Number of FTE Researchers
In 2002, 23,995 people.
In 2009, 57,759 people.
Number of researchers increased by 141 % between
2002-2009
Source: TURKSTAT
174
R&D Human Resources (1000 People)
85 82
74
75
67
65 63
54 64
55 49 58
53
45 40 50
38
43
35 28 39
27 29
23 24 33 34
25
23 23 24
15 19 20
5
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Full-time R&D Personnel Full-time Researcher
Source: TUBİTAK
175
Turkey: Number of Scientific Publications
In 2002, 10,314 publications.
In 2009, 24,916 publications.
Number of scientific publications increased by 142 %
between 2002 and 2009
Source: TUBİTAK
176
Turkey: Number of Scientific Publication
30,000
25,000 24,916
22,738
21,943
20,000
18,917
16,713
15,000
15,429
12,432
10,000
10,309
5,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: TUBİTAK
177
Number of Scientific Publications per Million People
400
350 343
322
311
300
272
243
250 228
200 186
156
150
100
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: TUBITAK 178
Turkey: Number of International Patent Applications
In 2002, 85 international patent applications.
In 2010, 480 international patent applications.
Number of international patent applications increased by
465 % between 2002-2010
Source: WIPO, World Intellectual Property Indicators Report
179
Turkey: Number of International Patent Applications
600
500
480
400
385
361
355
300
269
200
174
111
85 115
100
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: WIPO
180
Patent Applications and Registries
3,500 3,250
3,000
2,588
2,500
(Number of patents)
2,268
2,000 1,838
1,500
1,090
935
1,000
685 642
414 490 456
500 318 338
73 93 68 95 122
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Domestic Patent Registries Domestic Patent Appliciations
Source: TPI
181
Model Applications and Registries
3,500
2,972 2,949 2,994
3,000 2,882
2,424
2,500
(N u m b e r o f M o d e ls )
2,148 2,179
2,022
2,000 1,896 1,833
1,665
1,479
1,500
1,206
914 964
1,000
704 678
500 376
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Model Registrations Model Applications
Source: TPI, TUBİTAK
182
ENERGY SECTOR
183
Electricity Demand and Supply in Turkey (Billion kWh)
200
150
100
50
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Supply Demand
Source: TEİAŞ
184
0
5
10
15
20
25
Denmark
Slovenia
2009 1st Half)
Germany
Kaynak: Eurostat
Sweden
Slovakia
Latvia
Netherlands
Hungary
Without Taxes
Euro Area
Italy
France
Industrial Natural Gas Prices
EU27
Czech Republic
Belgium
Bulgaria
Other Taxes
Finland
Lithuania
Portugal
Ireland
Spain
VAT
England
Poland
Turkey
(Euro / GigaJoule, For consumers with 10.000 GJ-100.000GJ Annual Consuption,
Croatia
Estonia
185
Romania
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Denmark
Sweden
Netherlands
Italy
Kaynak: Eurostat
Euro Area
Slovenia
Austria
Germany
Without Taxes
Ireland
Spain
Belgium
Portugal
EU27
Household Natural Gas Prices
France
Latvia
Other Taxes Czech Republic
Hungary
Bulgaria
Slovakia
England
VAT
Lithuania
Estonia
Turkey
Poland
Croatia
186
Romania
Euro / GigaJoule, For consumers with 20 GJ – 200GJ annual consumption, 2009 1st Half)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Denmark
Slovakia
Italy
Germany
2009 1st Half)
Kaynak: Eurostat
Hungary
Malta
Netherlands
Ireland
England
Euro Area
Without Taxes
EU27
Czech Republic
Spain
Industrial Electricity Prices
Slovenia
Latvia
Luxembourg
Poland
Lithuania
Other Taxes
Greece
Croatia
Portugal
Romania
Norway
VAT
Turkey
Finland
France
Sweden
Bulgaria
(Eurocent / kWh, For consumers with 2.000MWh – 20.000Mwh annual consumption,
187
Estonia
0
5
10
15
20
25
Denmark 30
Germany
Italy
Kaynak: Eurostat
Ireland
Belgium
Austria
Netherlands
Luxembourg
Euro Area
Malta
Without Taxes
EU27
Sweden
Spain
Household Electricity Prices
Norway
Slovakia
Portugal
Hungary
England
Other Taxes
Slovenia
Czech Republic
Finland
France
Greece
Croatia
Turkey
VAT
Poland
Latvia
Romania
Lithuania
Estonia
Bulgaria
188
(Eurocent/kWh, For consumers with 2.500 kWh- 5.000kWh annual consumption, 2009 1st Half)
TURKISH ECONOMY
Undersecretary of Treasury
November 2011
