The Effect of Black Male Imprisonment on Black Child Poverty by e7W1coG0

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									The Effect of Black Male Imprisonment
        on Black Child Poverty


            Pamela Oliver
         Jessica Jakubowski
            Gary Sandefur
           James E. Yocom
   University of Wisconsin-Madison
Plan for the talk

• Quick overview of trends in Black
  imprisonment rates
• Why high imprisonment ought to affect
  poverty (but might not)
• Methods
• Results. Effects of imprisonment on
  – Poverty (positive)
  – family income (negative)
  – marital status & education (complex)
• Discussion
Trends in Black Imprisonment & Black
Child Poverty
Black imprisonment has soared
                                CPUS Imprisonment Rates per 100,000 adults of both sexes


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 In prison per 100,000




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                                                           White       Black
Black male imprisonment is extremely high

• ~40% of the Black male population is under the
  supervision of the correctional system (prison,
  jail, parole, probation)
• 20%+ of Black men 25-44 had been in prison at
  end of 1990s
• Estimated “lifetime expectancy” of spending
  some time in prison is 32% for young Black
  men (60% for those who are not high school
  graduates per Western/Petit)
• ~ 12% of black men in their 20s were in prison or
  jail in the late 1990s
Children are affected

• 7% of black children, 2.6% of Hispanic
  children, .8% of white children have a parent
  in prison
• Many more have a parent who has been in
  prison
• Even more are being reared in communities
  with a high proportion of former inmates
• However, these effects are not showing up in
  global poverty trends
How might imprisonment reduce poverty or the
appearance of poverty for those not imprisoned?

• Possible sources of real reductions
   – Remove predatory individuals who drag down a
     community
   – Reduce downward spiral effects of crime on
     community
   – Reduce competition for jobs
   – BUT: These possibilities decline as proportion
     imprisoned becomes high
• Reduction in appearance
   – removes poor [& unemployed & low-wage] people
     from the observed population (c.f. Western &
     others)
Imprisonment should increase child
poverty
• Removes working-age men from communities
  & families
  – A majority of inmates were employed at time of
    arrest, especially those who are parents
  – Prevents or disrupts marriage
• Lowers economic contributions of men
  – The vast majority of those who go to prison get out
    and re-enter their communities
  – A prison record harms chances of employment,
    restricts opportunities to low wage work
  – Systemic effects: drags down a community’s ties to
    the world of work & economic advancement
Community effects

• Prisons as criminogenic: spell in prison
  reduces capacity to lead a legitimate lifestyle,
  makes crime more attractive
• Crime as capitalization of low income areas,
  increases as legitimate earnings sources
  decrease
• Social disruptions from removal &
  stigmatization of large proportion of young
  men
• Poverty -> crime -> imprisonment -> crime as a
  self-reinforcing cycle that may drag whole
  communities down
Why Black Men’s Incarceration Should
Affect Black Child Poverty (our initial
model)

                   Father not in
                    household
      Male
                                      Child
  imprisonment
                                     Poverty
      rates



                  Father has lower
                  earning capacity
How imprisonment affects children: more
complex model

                                Father not in
                                 household


    Male
                Social            Mother's       Child
imprisonment
               Context           Education      Poverty
    rates




                         Father has lower
                         earning capacity
Poverty -> Crime -> Imprisonment?

• These relations are not as clear as they
  may seem
• Although poor individuals are much
  more likely to be arrested and go to
  prison for crimes, at the aggregate
  level, the poverty rate is not closely
  related to the imprisonment rate
Fig 1. Black child poverty declined while Black male
imprisonment increased & Black marriage decreased




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Percent Poor or Married




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                                                                                                                                                                                  % in prison
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                          30                                                                                                                                               3.00



                          20                                                                                                                                               2.00



                          10                        imprisonment                                                                                                           1.00



                           0                                                                                                                                               0.00
                               1982    1983      1984    1985    1986    1987    1988    1989    1990    1991      1992    1993    1994    1995    1996    1997    1998
                                                                                                  Year
                                               Percent of black children in poverty (CPS)                        Percent of black women 18-45 ever married (CPS)
                                               Percent of black males in prison (CPUS)
Methods
Data: CPS Sample

Poverty, income, household variables: Current
  Population Survey 1988-1998
• Children < 15
• Restricted to homogenous Black households,
  child resides with mother (and possibly also
  father)
• Limited to 20 states + DC with enough Black
  children in the sample + prison data for stable
  results
• Encompasses 89% of US Black population in
  1990
Data: CPS Variables

• Whether the child is in poverty
• Whether the child lives with mother only or
  both parents
• Number of children under 18 in household
• Educational level of the most highly educated
  woman in the household (usually the mother;
  we call this mother’s education for simplicity)
• Whether the household is in a metropolitan
  area
• Age of child (younger children have younger
  parents & higher rates of poverty)
Data: Imprisonment

Correctional Populations of the US 1982-1998.
  Count of persons in state institutions as of
  mid-year
• Black male imprisonment rate for each
  state/year = number of Black men in prison
  divided by number of adult Black men in the
  general population ages 18-40 per US Census
  estimates
• Imprisonment is lagged 4 years
  – Preliminary analysis shows effects peak at 4-5
    years
  – Prison stays for most offenses are 2-4 years
Analytic Methods

• Logistic regression (dichotomies) or OLS
  regression (numerical) or mlogit (education)
• Adjustment of household clustering in CPS
  using household ID and Stata “cluster”
  option
• All models include fixed effects dummy
  variables for state and year (not shown)
  – State dummies control for other unobserved
    factors affecting state Black child poverty levels
  – Year dummies control for national-level factors
    affecting Black child poverty levels as well as
    national-level trends in imprisonment
Results
Poverty, education, marital status
Proportion of children in poverty, by
mother’s education and marital status

                            Married        Single
   <HS                         0.37          0.77
   HS only                       0.13          0.55
   Some Coll                     0.06          0.34
   Coll Grad                     0.02          0.14

  Both marital status and mother’s education are strongly
  related to child poverty
Trends in education in Black families (most highly
educated woman in child’s family): Distribution in three
eras

            1988-1990 1991-1994 1995-1998
  <HS             0.27      0.24      0.20
  HS only         0.45      0.42      0.38
  Some Coll       0.19      0.25      0.31
  Coll Grad       0.09      0.09      0.11


There was a substantial increase in the education of Black
children’s mothers in the study period: less than high school
and high school grad declined, while the proportion of Black
mothers who had attended college went up
Proportion of Black children with single
mothers, by education and era


               1988-1990       1991-1994       1995-1998
LTHS                     .74             .78            .84
HS grad                  .59             .64            .64
Some Col                 .48             .53            .58
Coll Grad                .33             .32            .31

 The rise in single mothers is largest for the less than high
 school and some college groups; single mothers are steady
 for high school graduate and college graduate mothers.
Effects of Imprisonment
Multivariate models

• All models include dummy variables as controls for
  fixed state, year effects: coefficients not shown.
• The individual factors by far are the strongest
  predictors of poverty, income and single mother:
  mother’s education, metropolitan residence, number
  of children
• Imprisonment is different only for the 21x9 = 189
  state/years, and the 20 state dummies and 8 year
  dummies absorb the variation between states and
  across years, so there may be stronger imprisonment
  effects if there is mutual causation
• Consistent set of cases 1988-1998 across all
  analyses.
Child is Poor (Logistic regression)
                   All children                               Under 5 Only
Variable      Model 1       Model 2                       Model 1 Model 2
Impris Rate      1.207**                                   1.218*
Age             0.953*** 0.952***                          0.920***    0.920***
Mom Single     11.378*** 11.347***                        11.169***   11.147***
N Kids          1.690*** 1.691***                          1.643***    1.645***
Metro           0.757*** 0.750***                          0.713***    0.706***
Female Educ (HS only reference)
LTHS            2.944*** 2.954***                          3.193***      3.209***
Some Col        0.479*** 0.479***                          0.484***      0.485***
Col Grad        0.154*** 0.155***                          0.144***      0.144***
 legend: * p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001
bic                                 33840.33   33848.67       10885.41      10882.4
N                                      36553      36553          11451        11451


Each % point rise in imprisonment rate raises odds of poverty by
~21%
Log Family Income (OLS): All children
                  All families            Two Parent              Single Mother
Variable       Model 1 Model 2         Model 1 Model 2          Model 1 Model 2
Impris Rate   -0.073***               -0.105***                -0.055**
Age            0.027*** 0.028***       0.019*** 0.019***        0.033*** 0.033***
Mom Single    -0.975*** -0.974***
N Kids        -0.020*** -0.020***     -0.037*** -0.037***        -0.009     -0.009
Metro          0.072*** 0.075***       0.097*** 0.100***        0.048**     0.050**
Female Educ (HS only reference)
LTHS          -0.281*** -0.283***     -0.365*** -0.368*** -0.250*** -0.251***
Some Col       0.260*** 0.260***       0.244*** 0.244*** 0.264*** 0.264***
Col Grad       0.628*** 0.626***       0.568*** 0.566*** 0.698*** 0.697***
bic              65156.53   65199.3      24046.82   24077.59     41024.56     41033.79
N                   36553     36553         14228      14228        22325        22325



Black children’s family incomes are lower where imprisonment
was higher four years ago. Effect is stronger for two-parent
families.
Log Family Income (children < 5 only)
                         All families       Two Parent                     Single Mother
Variable              Model 1 Model 2 Model 1 Model 2                   Model 1     Model 2
Impris Rate          -0.074***           -0.092*                        -0.070**
Age                   0.050*** 0.050*** 0.038*** 0.038***               0.055***    0.055***
Mom Single           -1.040*** -1.040***
N Kids                0.020*** 0.019*** -0.019        0.040***
                                                  -0.019                             0.039***
Metro                 0.059** 0.062** 0.107** 0.109**    0.028                       0.032
Female Educ (HS only reference)
LTHS         -0.297*** -0.300*** -0.426*** -0.427*** -0.266***                       -0.268***
Some Col      0.261*** 0.261*** 0.245*** 0.245*** 0.260***                            0.260***
Col Grad      0.655*** 0.654*** 0.551*** 0.550*** 0.789***                            0.790***
bic                         20883.1        20890.2   7236.63   7236.3     13785.63      13786.57
N                              11451         11451      3990     3990         7461          7461
legend: * p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001



Effect sizes are similar to all children, but small N reduces
significance for two-parent families
Conclusion: Family income

• There does appear to be a negative effect of
  the lagged Black male imprisonment on Black
  children’s family income which is apparently
  due to the effect on male incomes.
• Household income, net family income
  excluding transfers show the same patterns.
• This aggregate effect is consistent with
  individual level research on effects of a prison
  record on lifetime earnings.
• The 4 year lag is consistent with process of
  entering & returning from prison
Child has Single mother (Logistic)
                    All children                             Under 5 Only
Variable      Model 1       Model 2                       Model 1 Model 2
Impris Rate      0.912                                     0.947
Age              0.972***      0.972***                    0.997     0.997
N Kids           0.905***      0.905***                    0.891*** 0.891***
Female Educ (HS only reference)
Metro           1.154*         1.159**                        0.996     0.998
LTHS             2.194***      2.189***                    2.450***     2.446***
Some Col         0.648***      0.648***                    0.562***     0.562***
Col Grad         0.253***      0.253***                    0.167***     0.167***
bic                                 45681.95   45677.31      13664.54     13655.78
N                                      36553      36553         11451        11451
legend: * p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001

This was not expected: the lagged effect of imprisonment on
single mothers is not significant. This seems illogical. But
this model controls for the mother’s education.
Adult female education
                       All Families                          Children under age 5
                      Model 1 Model 2                 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6
LTHS
Imp Rate             1.331***                         1.479***        1.478***
Metro                0.805** 0.799***                 0.771** 0.762** 0.771** 0.763**
Age                  0.990** 0.990**                   0.985   0.986
Some Col
Imp Rate             1.045                            1.034             1.034
Metro                1.435*** 1.433***                1.468*** 1.465*** 1.468*** 1.465***
Age                  1.002    1.002                   1.007     1.008
Col Grad
Imp Rate             1.239*                           1.117             1.116
Metro                1.881*** 1.866***                2.272*** 2.263*** 2.272*** 2.263***
Age                  1.018*** 1.017***                0.986    0.987
bic                      92466.11          92481.86     29363.74   29360.44   29337.34   29333.98
N                           36553             36553        11451      11451      11451      11451
legend: * p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001

      Strong prison effect for LTHS. ALSO a weaker + effect on college
      graduate. Per BIC test, prison is NS for <5 although coefficient is
      large.
Female Education: LTHS vs. all others
                       All children                    Children Under 5 Only
Variable           Model 1 Model 2              Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4
Imp Rate           1.297***                     1.498***          1.497***
Age                0.987*** 0.987***            0.984    0.985
Metro              0.677*** 0.671***            0.634*** 0.626*** 0.635*** 0.626***

bic                  39638.48        39670.02    13188.4   13209.88   13180.08   13201.47
N                      36553           36553      11451      11451      11451      11451

legend: * p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001



 Black children are 30% more likely to have mothers with LTHS if
 lagged imprisonment is 1 % point higher. This effect is even
 stronger for children under 5. BIC test says Imprisonment Rate is
 significant in all comparisons.
Mom single & LTHS (logistic regression)
                           All children                      Children Under 5 Only
Variable               Model 1 Model 2                Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4
Imp Rate               1.205**                        1.498***           1.496***
Age                    0.973*** 0.972***              0.975      0.976
Metro                   0.828** 0.822**               0.711*** 0.702*** 0.712*** 0.626***
bic                        34654.42        34662.89     11997.85   12016.22   11990.85   13201.47
N                             36553           36553        11451      11451      11451      11451

legend: * p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001




  Effect for all children is weaker than effect on LTHS (married +
  single); effect for young children is comparable. Conclusion: the
  effect is on LTHS education.
Effects of Black male imprisonment on
mother’s education
• Each 1% increase in BMI yields
  – 30% increase in odds of that no woman in
    household is a HS graduate
  – AND 23% increase in odds that a woman is a
    college graduate
  – I.e. bifurcation in educational experience
• Thus the second path from imprisonment
  seems to be through its effects on mother’s
  education which, in turn, is related to greater
  chance of being single mother AND to lower
  income
Other checks: Effects of lagged Black
male imprisonment
• Lowers (-) average age of child  more
  recent births as lags go up. Again, no
  significant interactions with education
• Raises (+) # of children in family or
  household as lags go up. Imprisonment
  slows the decline in # of children. No
  interactions with mother’s education or
  marital status.
• Seems to imply more children being born
  where imprisonment is higher, or fewer where
  it is lower.
Associations between imprisonment &
household composition
• Unrelated to # of men in household,
  either employed or unemployed.
• High rates of non-college single
  mothers is associated with higher rates
  of imprisonment, both simultaneous
  and lagging single mothers.
• Thus there appear to be patterns of
  mutual causality between education-
  marital status & imprisonment.
Black Imprisonment affects Black child
poverty through (at least) two paths
1. Direct effect on reduction of male
   income
2. Indirect effect through increasing
   likelihood that the mother has not
   graduated high school which, in turn,
   increases the likelihood that the child
   is poor
3. Both effects are strongest with 3-5
   year lags
Causal Direction Appears to be
imprisonment  Child Poverty, NOT
poverty  imprisonment
• Effect is stronger, not weaker, when
  household composition & state/year
  dummies are controlled
• Lagged effects of imprisonment are stronger
  than current effects (not shown)
• Incarceration rates generally have low to
  negative correlation with poverty rates (see
  next slide) in cross-sectional aggregate
  analysis
Average correlations
                               Average Average Average
                                   1988-     1988-    1993-
                                    1998      1992     1998
Current Study Individual poverty X state Black male
Child poverty X L4.imp rate         0.01      -0.03     0.04
Child poverty X imp rate            0.00      -0.03     0.03
States (Black population > 20000) total Black imprisonment
Child Pov X imp rate               -0.10      -0.11    -0.09
Adult Pov X imp rate               -0.12      -0.10    -0.14
Child Pov X L4.imp rate            -0.12      -0.14    -0.11
Adult Pov X L4.imp rate            -0.19      -0.19    -0.18
D.ChPov X D.imp rate               -0.07      -0.04    -0.10
D.AdPov X D.imp rate                0.02       0.13    -0.08
Crime X imp rate                    0.20       0.23     0.09
B homicide X imp rate              -0.08      -0.07    -0.11
L.Crime X imp rate                  0.24       0.25     0.10
L.B homicide X imp rate            -0.06      -0.06    -0.13

  Details in paper tables
Black children’s poverty was negatively correlated with
state Black male imprisonment rate
                           Correlations Between Black Child Poverty/Income & Black Male Imprsionment


              0.15


               0.1
Correlation




              0.05


                 0


              -0.05


               -0.1
                  1982   1984      1986        1988        1990           1992      1994        1996   1998   2000
                                                                   Year


                                                         Poverty           Income
Magnitudes of effects

• Effect sizes are small compared to
  individual-level factors
• Design is conservative as the state
  dummy is the average across time,
  controls-out SOME of the effect of
  imprisonment on poverty & the year
  dummy controls-out any national-level
  tendency for imprisonment to cause
  poverty
Interactions: Class differentiation

• The negative effects of high imprisonment
  rates on income are weaker for families where
  the woman has been to college, but BIC tests
  say interactions of prison and education are
  NS.
• High imprisonment rates are associated with
  RISES in the proportion of Black children
  living with married college-graduate mothers
• These differential effects masked the effects
  of imprisonment on the least educated and
  may point to class differences among Black
  people as related to incarceration patterns
Possible alternate explanations

• Fixed effects model controls for unobserved factors
  consistently correlated with state or year
• Increasing effects with lags through 3-5 years (not
  shown) is suggestive of temporal order
  prisonpoverty
• Remaining alternate explanations have to be
  something that both increased Black male
  imprisonment AND, several years later, reduced Black
  family incomes (especially for two-parent families)
  and contributed to a bifurcation in the educational
  experience of Black women, especially lowering HS
  graduation while education was generally rising
Implications for research

• Remember that large scale economic & fertility
  trends can mask the effects of social policies on well-
  being
• Watch for different effects on different segments of
  the population
• Stop assuming simple causal path of poverty ->
  crime -> incarceration
• Need to look for longer-term & indirect effects
• Is likely that incarceration rates generate positive
  feedbacks back into crime through increasing
  poverty: have to think about feedback systems
Thinking about system feedbacks



                                   Politics Etc.



    Poverty
                Imprisonment      Enforcement



     Crime
In conclusion

• Does Black male incarceration affect
  Black child poverty? The answer
  appears to be YES.
• In understanding the persistence of
  racial economic inequality, we need to
  keep our eye on inequalities in the
  criminal justice system.
The end
Black children’s poverty was negatively correlated with
state Black male imprisonment rate
                           Correlations Between Black Child Poverty/Income & Black Male Imprsionment


              0.15


               0.1
Correlation




              0.05


                 0


              -0.05


               -0.1
                  1982   1984      1986        1988        1990           1992      1994        1996   1998   2000
                                                                   Year


                                                         Poverty           Income
In fact . . .

• If you correlate Black child poverty with the
  Black male imprisonment rate WITHIN a
  single year, the correlation is generally
  NEGATIVE (and was more negative in the
  1980s)
• Conversely, the cross-sectional correlations
  between Black male imprisonment and Black
  household income are generally POSTIVE
  (and were more positive in the 1980s)
• Have to dismiss simple ideas that poverty
  causes imprisonment
Black children’s poverty was very weakly negatively correlated with
state Black male imprisonment rate, while household income
correlation was very weakly positive
                            Correlations Between Black Child Poverty/Income & Black Male Imprsionment


               0.15


                0.1
 Correlation




               0.05


                  0


               -0.05


                -0.1
                   1982   1984      1986        1988        1990           1992      1994        1996   1998   2000
                                                                    Year


                                                          Poverty           Income
Correlations are low, highly variable with selection of states
Bivariate correlations between White & Black
imprisonment and White & Black adult poverty
                 B ivariat e co rrelat io ns: Impriso nment & adult po vert y


 0 .6




 0 .4




 0 .2




   0




-0 .2




-0 .4




-0 .6
         9
        1 83    9
               1 84    9
                      1 85 1 86
                            9       9    9
                                   1 87 1 88    9
                                               1 89   1 90
                                                       9      9    9
                                                             1 91 1 92    9
                                                                         1 93   1 94
                                                                                 9      9    9
                                                                                       1 95 1 96    9    9
                                                                                                   1 97 1 98


                 B p ris B p o v         B p ris W p o v          W p ris B p o v         W p ris W p o v
• Next two slides show first White then
  Black prison sentences by offense
  group
National White Prison Sentences per 100,000 population

            White Ne w Se nte nce s pe r 100,000 pop, by offe ns e . All State s in NCRP



18                                                                                                        Violent
16    Rob/Burg
14

12
        Other
10

 8                                                                                                        Theft
 6

 4

 2
        Drug
 0    9
     1 83     9
             1 84    9
                    1 85   1 86
                            9         9
                                     1 87      9
                                              1 88    9
                                                     1 89     9
                                                             1 90   1 91
                                                                     9      9
                                                                           1 92      9
                                                                                    1 93    9
                                                                                           1 94     9
                                                                                                   1 95   1 96
                                                                                                           9      9
                                                                                                                 1 97    9
                                                                                                                        1 98    9
                                                                                                                               1 99


                                  V io lent           Ro b / B ur          Thef t           Drug            Ot her
National Black Prison Sentences per 100,000 population

       Black Ne w Se nte nce s pe r 100,000 pop, by offe ns e . All State s in NCRP



300
                                                        Drug
250


200
                                                              Rob/Burg
150


100
             Violent
 50
                                         Theft                       Other
  0   1983   1984   1985   1986   1987   1988   1989   1990   1991    1992    1993    1994   1995   1996   1997   1998   1999


                                   V iolent       Rob/ B ur          Thef t          Drug      Ot her
National Black/White Disparity in Prison Sentences, by Offense

                    B/W Disparity Ratios in Prison Admits, by Of f ense. All States in NCRP


  25.0




  20.0




  15.0




  10.0




   5.0




   0.0
      83


             84


                    85


                           86


                                  87


                                         88


                                                89


                                                        90


                                                               91

                                                                      92


                                                                             93


                                                                                    94


                                                                                           95


                                                                                                  96


                                                                                                         97


                                                                                                                 98


                                                                                                                        99
    19


           19


                  19


                         19


                                19


                                       19


                                              19


                                                      19


                                                             19

                                                                    19


                                                                           19


                                                                                  19


                                                                                         19


                                                                                                19


                                                                                                       19


                                                                                                               19


                                                                                                                      19
                                 Violent             Rob/Burg          Thef t            Drug          Other
States’ Black imprisonment rates were generally
negatively correlated with poverty

                        Correlation between black state imprisonment rate & black adult poverty within years


              0.4

              0.2

                0
Correlation




              -0.2

              -0.4

              -0.6

              -0.8
                     1983       1985        1987        1989        1991        1993       1995        1997    1999
                                                                    Year


                                            drug      violent     rob/burg       theft     in prison

								
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