Voting Behaviour by 1fMrH76

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									Voting Behaviour
1.Introduction
2. Participation
3. Results 1992-2005
4. Voting by Social Class
5. Voting by Nations and Regions
6. Voting by Sex
7. Voting by Age
8. Voting by Religion and Ethnicity
9. Conclusions
1. Introduction
Some Basic
Considerations

Relative Parameters of Party Support

Fluctuations within the parameters

Problem of distinguishing between
 temporary and long term changes in party
 support
Influences on Voters

Social Class
Employment Sector
National/Regional Location
Housing Tenure
Age
Sex
Religion/Ethnicity
2. Participation

Post-War Average circa 73 per cent

Highest 84.0 per cent, 1950

Lowest 59.4 per cent, 2001

 1992, 77.7 per cent
1992-1997

Conservative Vote 14.1 m to 9.6m
Labour Vote 11.6m to 13.5 m
LibDems 6.0m to 5.2m
Referendum Party 0.8m from Labour
 1.5m from Conservatives
Conservative Abstention around 1.0 m.
3 Results 1992- 2005
         Cons.   Labour   LibDem
1992      42      34        18

1997      31      43        17

2001      32      41        18

2005      32      35        22
4 Voting by Social Class
Social Class Distribution
of the electorate
A. Upper Managerial                  4%
B Lower Managerial & Professional   25%
C1 Other Non-Manual                 22%
C2 Skilled Manual Workers           27%
D Semi-Skilled Manual Workers       16%
Unskilled Manual Workers             5%
Other                                1%
Voting by Social Class,
2005

     Cons      Labour    LibDem    Turnout
AB   37 (-2)   28(-2)    29 (+4)   71 (+3)
C1   37 (+1)   32 (-6)   23 (+3)    62 (+2)
C2   33 (+4)   40 (-9)   19 (+4)   58 (+2)
DE   25 (+1)   48 (-7)   18 (+5)   54 (+1)
          Class Voting by Con Lead
          over Lab Oct 1974-2005

                    ABC1   C2    DE
         1974 Oct   +37    -23   -35
         1983       +39    +8    -8
         1992       +32    -1    -18
         1997       +5     -23   -38
         2001       +4     -20   -31
         2005       +7     -7    -23
Manual
Voting by House Tenure 2001
           Con      Labour Lib/Dem Turnout

Home      44 (+1)   29 (-3) 20 (+1) 71 (+3)
Owners
Mort-     31 (0)    36 (-6) 25 (+5) 60 (+1)
gaged
Social    16 (+3)   55 (-4) 19 (+2) 51 (-1)
Renter
Private   27 (-1)   36 (-3) 28 (+3) 51 (+5)
Renter
5. Voting by the Nations
and Regions
  Voting by Nation 2005
                                  SNP
          Con     Labour LibDem Plaid
                                 Cymru
England   35.7      35.5   22.9
         (+0.5)    (-5.9) (+1.9)
Scotland 15.6       45.6   16.4   20.1
         (+0.2)    (-4.4) (+6.3) (-2.4)
Wales     21.0      42.7   13.8   14.3
         (+0.4)    (-5.9) (+4.6) (-1.7)
Voting by Nation 2005:
Northern Ireland 2001 & 2005

         DUP      Ulster     Sinn   SDLP
                 Unionists   Fein
2001     22.5      26.8      21.7   21.0

2005     33.7      17.8      24.3   17.5

Change   +11.2     -9.0      +2.6   -3.5
Turnout Nations, 2005
                 Turnout %
      England      61.3
      Scotland     60.5
      Wales        62.4
      Northern     68.6
      Ireland
      United       61.2
      Kingdom
Voting By English Regions
2005 (a)
            Cons. Labour LibDem Turnout
London       32    39     22      58

Sth. East    45    24     25      64

Sth. West    39    23     33      67

Eastern      43    30     22      64
Voting By English Regions
2005 (b)
           Cons. Labour LibDem Turnout
East Md.    37    39     18      63

West Md.    35    39     19      61

Nth West    29    45     21      57

Yorks/      29    44     21      59
Humber
Nth East    20    53     23      57
6 Voting by Sex, 1992,
2001 & 2005
              Cons     Labour    LibDem
Males 92       39        36        18
Females 92     43        34        18


Males 01       32        42        18
Females 01     33        42        19


Males 05     34 (+2)   34 (-8)   22 (+4)
Females 05   32 (-1)   38 (-4)   23 (+4)
7 Voting By Age, 2005
         Cons      Labour     LibDem
 18-24   28 (+1)   38 (-3)    26 (+2)
 25-34   25 (+1)   38 (-13)   27 (+8)
 35-44   27 (-1)   41 (-4)    23 (+4)
 45-54   31 (-1)   35 (-6)    25 (+5)
 55-64   39 (0)    31 (-6)    22 (+5)
 65+     41 (+1)   35 (-4)    18 (+1)
Turnout By Age, 2005
              Turnout %
      18-24    37 (-2)
      25-34    49 (+3)
      35-44    61 (+2)
      45-54    65 (0)
      55-64    71 (+2)
      65+      75 (+5)
8 Religion and Ethnicity


Northern Ireland, especially

Ethnic Minorities
9 Conclusions

Class remains the basis of voting
 behaviour
…...but there has been a measure of class
 dealignment
Decline in strength of party identification
Voters are become more instrumental
A general rise in support for ‘Third Parties’

								
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