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					Projections from UC Davis' Advanced Energy Pathways, available at

Basic driving variables                            2005                               2050 Portrait
                                                   Data           Minimum demand    Baseline demand
CA populations, millions                           36.55               44.77              54.78

Single-family households, millions                  8.36               8.27             12.93
Multi-family households, millions                   3.81               4.87              5.26
Gross State Product, billion 2000$                 1471                2349              4987
Comm. floorspace, million ft2                      6073                8295             10149
Industrial shipments, billion 2001$                588.9                726              1914
Number of light-duty vehicles:
- Conventional gasoline                          25837936            10466397          37774037
- Gasoline hybrid                                  80849              9692377           3876382
- Diesel                                             1                9606134           9796868
- Total                                          25918786            29764908          51447287

Vehicle miles travelled, million miles/yr:
- Conventional gasoline engine                    297473               83735            434561
- Gasoline hybrid                                   916                84171             47093
- Diesel                                             1                 82058            111732
- Total light-duty vehicles                       298390              249964            593386




- Heavy-duty vehicles (rel. to baseline)             1                 0.58                 1
- Airplanes (billion seat-miles/yr)                 202                332                 706
Fuel efficiency
- Conventional gasoline engine (mpg)               20.35              39.81               24.04
- Gasoline hybrid (mpg)                            23.97              55.29               32.78
- Diesel (mpg equivalent)                           n/a               55.85               31.24
- Average light-duty vehicle (mpg eq.)            20.36               49.07               25.70
- Heavy-duty vehicles (mpg eq.)                      6                  7.7                7.5
- Airplane efficiency (relative to 2005)             1                 1.28                 1
*note: these data not available in spreadsheets, but McCarthy, Yang and Ogden, 2008, "Appendix A: California Energy Demand

Derived variables                                   2005                               2050 Portrait
                                                    Data           Minimum demand    Baseline demand
Total households, millions                          12.17                13.14             18.19
Single-family households per capita          0.228727770177839   0.184721911994639 0.236035049288061
Multi-family households per capita           0.104240766073871   0.108778199687291 0.096020445418036
Total households per capita                   0.33296853625171    0.29350011168193 0.332055494706097
People per household                                 3.00                 3.41              3.01
Precent single family households                   68.69%               62.94%           71.08%
Gross State Product per capita, thousand
2000$                                              40.25               52.47             91.04
Floorspace per capita, ft2                        166.16              185.28            185.27
Industrial shipments per capita, thousand
2001$                                              16.11               16.22             34.94
Industrial shipments as % of GSP                  40.03%              30.91%            38.38%
Heavy-duty vehicle activity (miles/$1000
GSP/yr)                                       16.32          9.51              9.47
Heavy-duty vehicle miles travelled (million
miles/yr)                                     24,000        22,330            47,250
Airplane efficiency (seat-mpg)                 53.22        103.75             80.23

Energy intensity trends                                                   2050 Portrait
                                                        Minimum demand  Baseline demand
Residential-end use saturation                         Frozen          Continued trend
Residential-energy intensity                           High efficiency Baseline
Commercial                                             High efficiency Baseline
Industrial                                             High efficiency Baseline
Agricultural                                           Scaled by GSP   Scaled by GSP
                                                       Scaled by       Scaled by
Other                                                  population      population

Total demand

Electricity                                    2005                        2050 Portrait
Total demand, GWh/yr                           Data     Minimum demand   Baseline demand
Residential
- Single-family households                       0             0                0
- Multi-family households                        0             0                0
- Total                                        84781         55688           113903
Commercial                                     96381         91878           150327
Industrial                                     53866         33698           100249
Agricultural                                   21314         14386            30533
Other                                          14922         21596            26425
Total                                         271265        217246           421437

Peak demand, GW
Residential                                   21.03         13.81             28.25
Commercial                                    19.55         18.64              30.5
Industrial                                     8.91          5.57             16.58
Agricultural                                    4.6          3.11               6.6
Other sectors                                  2.23          3.23              3.95
Coincident peak                               50.96         40.58             77.92

Non-coincident peak (straight sum of 5)        56.33         44.36            85.88
Coincident:non-coincident peak ratio          90.47%        91.48%           90.73%

Peak ratio (peak GW / avg. GW)
Residential                                    2.17          2.17              2.17
Commercial                                     1.78          1.78              1.78
Industrial                                     1.45          1.45              1.45
Agricultural                                   1.89          1.90              1.89
Other sectors                                  1.31          1.31              1.31
Coincident peak                                1.65          1.64              1.62

Non-coincident peak (straight sum of 5)        1.82          1.79              1.79

Natural gas                                    2005                        2050 Portrait
Total demand, MM therms/yr                 Data   Minimum demand   Baseline demand
Residential                                5248        3439              6619
Commercial                                 1837        2003              2797
Industrial                                 6785        3127             10162
Agricultural                              210.3        105.5             223.9
Other                                     151.2        142.9             174.9
Total                                     14231        8818             19976

Transportation                            2005                       2050 Portrait
                                          Data    Minimum demand   Baseline demand
Heavy-duty vehicles, billion gallons/yr   4.00          2.90             6.30
Airplanes, billion gallons/yr             3.80          3.20             8.80
Fuel used, million gallons gasoline
equivalent (GGE)/yr:
Light-duty vehicles:
- Conventional gasoline engine            14617        2103            18079
- Gasoline hybrid                           38         1522             1437
- Diesel                                     0         1469             3576
- Total                                   14655        5094            23092
Heavy-duty vehicles                        4000        2900             6300
Airplanes                                  3800        3200             8800
Total                                     22455       11194            38192
              Maximum demand          Notes
                    70

                    19.92             Single family homes
                     5.85             Apartments
                     7683
                    12969
                     3561

                  68257527
                   6951407
                   6732107
                  81941041


                   717947
                    77050
                    73769
                   868766

                                      this quantity doesn't
                                      seem to work in the
                                      disaggregation
                     1.21         *   below, so I ignore it
                    1,087         *   scaled to GSP

                      22.27
                      29.63
                      30.02
                      23.30
                        6        *
                       0.67      *
ndix A: California Energy Demand Scanrio Projects to


              Maximum demand
                    25.77
             0.284571428571429
             0.083571428571429
             0.368142857142857
                     2.72
                   77.30%

                    109.76
                    185.27

                    50.87
                   46.35%
       9.45

      72,600
       54.08


 Maximum demand
Continued trend
Frozen
Frozen
Naturally occuring
Scaled by GSP
Scaled by
population




Maximum demand

         0
         0
      193399
      207222
      207109
       47043
       33768
      688541


       47.97
       42.04
       34.26
       10.16
        5.05
      126.01

     139.48
     90.34%


       2.17
       1.78
       1.45
       1.89
       1.31
       1.60

       1.78
Maximum demand
     11348
      4175
     21269
     344.9
     223.5
     37360


Maximum demand
     12.10
     20.10



    32231
     2600
     2458
    37289
    12100
    20100
    69489
Sector demand

Except where noted, from UC Davis'
Advanced Energy Pathways, available at
http://steps.ucdavis.edu/People/cyang/aep/
UCD%20AEP%20Scenarios.zip/view
P

Population                                                           2005

                                                        Units        Data     Minimum drivers
California total population                  Millions                36.6          54.78
                                                                                   44.77
D1

Per capita indices                                                   2005

                                                        Units        Data     Minimum drivers
Residential
- Single-family households                   Households/capita        0.23         0.18
- Multi-family households                    Households/capita        0.10         0.11
- Total                                      Households/capita        0.33         0.29
Commercial                                   ft2 floorspace/capita   166.16       185.28
                                             $1000 industrial
Industrial                                   shipments/yr/capita     16.11        16.22
                                             $1000 Gross State
                                             Product
Agricultural                                 (GSP)/yr/capita         40.25        52.47
Other                                        n/a                       1            1
Light duty vehicles
- Conventional gasoline engine               Vehicles/capita          0.71         0.23
- Gasoline hybrid                            Vehicles/capita          0.00         0.22
- Diesel                                     Vehicles/capita          0.00         0.21
- Total light-duty vehicles                  Vehicles/capita          0.71         0.66

Heavy-duty vehicles                          $1000 GSP/yr/capita     40.25        52.47

Airplanes                                    $1000 GSP/yr/capita     40.25        52.47
Bus                                          n/a                       1            1
Rail-passenger                               n/a                       1            1

Rail-freight                                 $1000 GSP/yr/capita     40.25        52.47

Marine                                       $1000 GSP/yr/capita     40.25        52.47

D2




Persons per household                                                 3.00         3.41
Normalized indices for transport
(vehicle miles travelled)                                  2005

                                   Units                   Data     High efficiency
Light-duty vehicles
- Conventional gasoline engine     Miles/vehicle/yr        11,513       8,000
- Gasoline hybrid                  Miles/vehicle/yr        11,330       8,684


- Diesel                           Miles/vehicle/yr            0        8,542
- Total                            Miles/vehicle/yr        11,512       8,398
Heavy-duty vehicles                Miles/$1000 GSP          16.32        9.51
Airplanes                          Miles/$1000 GSP         137.48      141.34
Bus                                Miles/capita/yr           530         530
Rail-passenger                     Miles/capita/yr            98          98
Rail-freight                       Ton-miles/$1000 GSP       6.19        4.87
Marine                             Miles/$1000 GSP           1.09        0.48
             passenger diff:



Miles per capita:
Light-duty vehicles
Heavy-duty vehicles
Airplanes
Bus
Rail-passenger
Rail-freight
Marine


Summary table for report:

Parameter                          Units                   2005         2050
California total population        Millions                36.55        54.78
Non-transportation indices:

Residential                        Persons per household   3.00          3.01
Commercial                         ft2 floorspace/capita   166           185
Industrial                         $1000 industrial        16.1          34.9
Agricultural                       $1000 Gross State       40.2          91.0
Other                              n/a                     1.00          1.00
Transportation indices:
Light duty vehicles                Vehicles/capita          0.71        0.94
                                   Miles/vehicle/yr        11,512      11,534
Heavy-duty vehicles                $1000 GSP/yr/capita      40.2        91.0
                                   Miles/$1000 GSP          16.3         9.5
Airplanes                          $1000 GSP/yr/capita      40.2        91.0
                 Miles/$1000 GSP       137.5   70.8
Bus              Miles/capita/yr        530    530
Rail-passenger   Miles/capita/yr         98     98
Rail-freight     $1000 GSP/yr/capita    40.2   91.0
                 Ton-miles/$1000 GSP     6.2    4.9
Marine           $1000 GSP/yr/capita    40.2   91.0
                 Miles/$1000 GSP        1.09   0.48
 2050 Portrait

Baseline drivers          Maximum drivers     Business As Usual      Realistic case
    54.78                     54.78                 54.78               54.78
                                70


 2050 Portrait

Baseline drivers          Maximum drivers     Business As Usual      Realistic case
                                               Baseline drivers     Baseline drivers
     0.24                      0.28
     0.10                      0.08
     0.33                      0.37                  0.33                0.33
    185.27                    185.27                185.27              185.27

     34.94                     50.87                34.94                34.94


     91.04                    109.76                91.04                91.04
       1                        1                    1.00                 1.00

     0.69                      0.98
     0.07                      0.10
     0.18                      0.10
     0.94                      1.17                  0.94                0.94

     91.04                    109.76                91.04                91.04

     91.04                    109.76                91.04                91.04
       1                        1                    1.00                 1.00
       1                        1                    1.00                 1.00

     91.04                    109.76                91.04                91.04

     91.04                    109.76                91.04                91.04




                   3.01                2.72                  3.01                3.01
      2050 Portrait

   Moderate efficiency   Low efficiency   Business As Usual     Realistic case
                                          Moderate efficiency Moderate efficiency
         11,504             10,518
         12,149             11,084


         11,405             10,958
         11,534             10,602               11,534             11,534
          9.47               9.45                  9.47              9.47
         141.57             141.48                70.78             70.78
          530                530                   530               530
           98                 98                    98                98
          4.87               4.87                  4.87              4.87
          0.48               0.48                  0.48              0.48

                                          (basically all same)




AEP Scenario
Baseline drivers


Baseline drivers
Baseline drivers
Baseline drivers
Baseline drivers
N/A

Baseline drivers
Moderate efficiency
Baseline drivers
Moderate efficiency
Baseline drivers
Custom (Yang, 2010)
Moderate efficiency
Moderate efficiency
Baseline drivers
Moderate efficiency
Baseline drivers
Moderate efficiency
Realistic case with   Change 2005 to
 behavior change          2050
      54.78               50%

                                         D1b = P x D1

                                         Derived data                                      2005
Realistic case with   Behavior: change
 behavior change        from realistic                                                     Data
     Custom                              Households, millions:
                                         - Single-family households                         8.36
                                         - Multi-family households                          3.81
      0.30                 -10%          - Total                                           12.17
     166.74                -10%          Commercial floorspace, million ft2                6,073

      31.45                -10%          Industrial shipments, billion 2001$ per year       589


      81.93                -10%          Gross State Product, billion 2000$ per year        1,471
       1.00                 0%           CA population, millions                            36.55
                                         Gross State Product per capita, $1000/yr          40.246
                                         Vehicles, millions                                 25.84
                                         Vehicles, millions                                  0.08
                      See below - VMT    Vehicles, millions                                  0.00
       0.94                 0%           Vehicles, millions                                 25.92

      91.04                 0%           Gross State Product, billion 2000$ per year       1471

      91.04                 0%           Gross State Product, billion 2000$ per year       1471
       1.00                 0%           CA population, millions                           36.55
       1.00                 0%           CA population, millions                           36.55

      91.04                 0%           Gross State Product, billion 2000$ per year       1471

      91.04                 0%           Gross State Product, billion 2000$ per year       1471

                                         D2b = P x D1 x D2

                                         Derived data                                      2005

                                         (used in carrier calculations - sheets CF etc.)   Data
               3.35         0%           Households, millions:
                                         - Total                                         12.17
                                         Commercial floorspace, million ft2              6,073
                                         Industrial shipments, billion 2001$ per year     589

                                         Gross State Product, billion 2000$ per year     1,471
Realistic case with   Behavior: change
 behavior change        from realistic   CA population, millions                         36.55
     Custom




     10,380                -10%          Million vehicle-miles/yr                       298,390
       8.53                -10%          Million miles/yr                                24,000
      63.71                -10%          Million seat-miles/yr                          202,234
      1,590                200%          Million seat-miles/yr                           19,372
       294                 200%          Million seat-miles/yr                            3,582
       4.38                -10%          Million ton-miles/yr                             9,101
       0.43                -10%          Million miles/yr                                 1,608

                                                                                         2005


                                                                                         Data
                                         miles/capita                                    8,164
                                         miles/capita                                     657
                                         miles/capita                                    5,533
                                         miles/capita                                     530
                                         miles/capita                                      98
                                         miles/capita                                     249
                                         miles/capita                                      44
                    2050 Portrait

Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers   Maximum drivers    Business As Usual      Realistic case

     10.12              12.93              15.59
      5.96               5.26               4.58
     16.08              18.19              20.17                18.19               18.19
    10,150             10,149             10,149               10,149              10,149

      888               1,914              2,787               1,914                1,914


     2,874              4,987              6,012               4,987                4,987
     54.78              54.78              54.78               54.78                54.78
     52.47              91.04             109.76               91.04                91.04
     12.81              37.77              53.42
     11.86               3.88               5.44
     11.75               9.80               5.27
     36.42              51.45              64.12               51.45                51.45

     2,874              4,987              6,012               4,987                4,987

     2,874              4,987              6,012               4,987                4,987
     54.78              54.78              54.78               54.78                54.78
     54.78              54.78              54.78               54.78                54.78

     2,874              4,987              6,012               4,987                4,987

     2,874              4,987              6,012               4,987                4,987



                                                            2050 Portrait

Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers   Maximum drivers     Minimum drivers     Baseline drivers
 High efficiency   High efficiency     High efficiency   Moderate efficiency Moderate efficiency
     16.08             18.19              20.17             16.08             18.19
    10,150            10,149             10,149            10,150            10,149
      888              1,914              2,787              888              1,914

    2,874              4,987              6,012            2,874              4,987

    54.78              54.78              54.78            54.78              54.78




   305,853           432,051            538,516           420,063           593,386
    27,323            47,407             57,156            27,232            47,250
   406,231           704,846            849,787           406,896           706,000
    29,033            29,033             29,033            29,033            29,033
     5,368             5,368              5,368             5,368             5,368
    13,986            24,268             29,258            13,986            24,268
     1,389             2,410              2,906             1,389             2,410

                                                        2050 Portrait


Minimum drivers   Baseline drivers   Maximum drivers   Minimum drivers   Baseline drivers
     5,583             7,887              9,831             7,668            10,832
      499               865               1,043              497               863
     7,416            12,867             15,513             7,428            12,888
      530               530                530               530               530
       98                98                 98                98                98
      255               443                534               255               443
       25                44                 53                25                44
                                  0.90%               0.90%                0.90%



                       Annual change
Realistic case with
 behavior change       Minimum drivers     Baseline drivers   Maximum drivers       Business As Usual



      16.37                       0.62%               0.90%                1.13%                 0.90%
      9,134                       1.15%               1.15%                1.15%                 1.15%

      1,723                       0.92%               2.65%                3.51%                 2.65%


      4,488                       1.50%               2.75%                3.18%                 2.75%
      54.78                       0.90%               0.90%                0.90%                 0.90%
      81.93                       0.59%               1.83%                2.25%                 1.83%
                                                                           1.55%    doubling rate
                                                                          -1.07%    indus shipment
                                                                          -1.17%    GSP
      51.45                                                               -0.27%    GSP/capita

      4,987

      4,987
      54.78
      54.78

      4,987

      4,987



                      (copies of above):
                                                              Realistic case with
Maximum drivers       Business As Usual     Realistic case     behavior change
 Low efficiency
      20.17              18.19              18.19                 16.37
     10,149             10,149             10,149                 9,134
      2,787              1,914              1,914                 1,723

      6,012              4,987              4,987                 4,488

      54.78              54.78              54.78                 54.78


                   Total VMT indices:
                                                                                  Behavior: difference
                                                            Realistic case with      from realistic
                   Business As Usual    Realistic case       behavior change           (absolute)
     679,871            593,386           593,386                534,047                -59,339
      56,815             47,250            47,250                 42,525                 -4,725
     850,655            353,000           353,000                317,700                -35,300
      29,033             29,033            29,033                 87,100                 58,067
       5,368              5,368             5,368                 16,105                 10,737
      29,258             24,268            24,268                 21,841                 -2,427
       2,906              2,410             2,410                  2,169                  -241
                                                  980,788                               -25,835

                                                                                  Behavior: difference
                                                            Realistic case with      from realistic
 Maximum drivers   Business As Usual    Realistic case       behavior change           (absolute)
     12,411             10,832             10,832                 9,749                  -1,083
      1,037               863                863                    776                    -86
     15,529              6,444              6,444                 5,800                   -644
       530                530                530                  1,590                   1,060
        98                 98                 98                    294                    196
       534                443                443                    399                    -44
        53                 44                 44                     40                     -4

VMT LDV
2050/2005:               1.326839477
                         Cumulative change

Realistic case            Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers   Maximum drivers   Business As Usual



                 0.90%                132%               149%              166%               149%
                 1.15%                167%               167%              167%               167%

                 2.65%                151%               325%              473%               325%


                 2.75%                195%               339%              409%               339%
                 0.90%                150%               150%              150%               150%
                 1.83%                130%               226%              273%               226%
Behavior: difference
   from realistic
      (relative)
        -10%           vehicle-miles
        -10%
        -10%
        200%           seat-miles
        200%           seat-miles
        -10%
        -10%
         -3%           note is underestimate since LDV are vehicle-miles

Behavior: difference
   from realistic
      (relative)
        -10%
        -10%
        -10%
        200%
        200%
        -10%
        -10%
Realistic case



                 149% Per capita change:     -0.27%
                 167% Per capita change:        12%

                 325% Per capita change:      117%


                 339%
                 150%
                 226%



                        Per capita change:     32%
E
Carrier conversion efficiencies




                                                       These assume
                                                       100% electricity--
                                                       see right for
Electricity                                            breakdown
kWh                                                            2005

Sector                            Sector unit                  Data         High efficiency
Residential

- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Average                         per household-yr            13,556            8,247
Commercial                        per ft2-yr                   21.02            14.67
Industrial                        per $1000 shipment          335.76           170.38
Agricultural                      per $1000 GSP                16.20             6.85
Other                             per capita-yr                 452              534
Light-duty vehicles
- Conventional gasoline engine    per mile


- Gasoline hybrid                 per mile

- Diesel                          per mile
- Average                         per mile                     0.28              0.28

Heavy-duty vehicles               per mile                     2.27              2.27
Airplanes                         per seat-mile



Bus                               per seat-mile                0.16              0.16


Rail-passenger                    per seat-mile                0.27              0.27


Rail-freight                      per ton-mile                0.042             0.042



Marine                            per mile
                                                          These assume
                                                          100% natural gas
                                                          (including uses
                                                          currently provided
Conventional gaseous fuel (natural                        by electricity). See
gas)                                                      right for breakdown
Therms                               (0 = n/a)                     2005

Sector                               Sector unit                  Data           High efficiency
Residential




- Single-family households           per household-yr
- Multi-family households            per household-yr
- Average                            per household-yr             887                 538
Commercial                           per ft2-yr                   1.23                0.98
Industrial                           per $1000 shipment          22.39                8.37
Agricultural                         per $1000 GSP                1.35                0.42
Other                                per capita-yr               42.91               33.11
Light-duty vehicles
- Conventional gasoline engine       per mile

                                                          Assumed efficiency
- Gasoline hybrid                    per mile             over petroleum:                          1
- Diesel                             per mile
- Average                            per mile             0.056677066925835 0.023517290489831
Heavy-duty vehicles                  per mile             0.192333333333333 0.14987012987013
Airplanes                            per seat-mile        0.021683758073654 0.011122891566265
Bus                                  per seat-mile                   0.03723           0.03723
Rail-passenger                       per seat-mile                   0.02835           0.02835
Rail-freight                         per ton-mile                     0.0042            0.0042
Marine                               per mile                        1.29248           1.29248

                                                          These assume
                                                          100% petroleum
                                                          (including uses
                                                          currently provided
                                                          by electricity). See
Conventional Liquid Fuels                                 right for breakdown
Gallons gasoline equivalent (gge)                                  2005

Sector                               Sector unit                  Data           High efficiency
Residential




- Single-family households          per household-yr
- Multi-family households           per household-yr
- Average                           per household-yr              0                    1
Commercial                          per ft2-yr                    0

Industrial                          per $1000 shipment           18.65
Agricultural                        per $1000 GSP                   0
Other                               per capita-yr                   0
                                                          (see inverse values (see inverse values
Light-duty vehicles                                             at right)           at right)

- Conventional gasoline engine      per mile              0.049140049140049 0.025119316754584


- Gasoline hybrid                   per mile              0.041718815185649 0.018086453246518

- Diesel                            per mile              0.041666666666667 0.017905102954342

- Average                           per mile              0.049113576192232 0.020378934566578

Heavy-duty vehicles                 per mile              0.166666666666667 0.12987012987013


Airplanes                           per seat-mile         0.018790084985836 0.009638554216867
Bus                                 per seat-mile                0.032261698       0.032261698
Rail-passenger                      per seat-mile                0.024566724       0.024566724
Rail-freight                        per ton-mile                 0.003639515       0.003639515
Marine                              per mile                             1.12             1.12


                                    (same as
                                    conventional liquid
Unconventional Liquid Fuels         fuels for now)
Gallons gasoline equivalent (gge)                               2005

Sector                              Sector unit                  Data           High efficiency
Residential
- Single-family households          per household-yr
- Multi-family households           per household-yr
- Average                           per household-yr              0.       1.02490319371914
Commercial                          per ft2-yr                    0.               0.
Industrial                          per $1000 shipment    18.6507947783515         0.
Agricultural                        per $1000 GSP                 0.               0.
Other                               per capita-yr                 0.               0.
Light-duty vehicles
- Conventional gasoline engine      per mile
- Gasoline hybrid                   per mile
- Diesel                         per mile
- Average                        per mile             0.049113576192232       0.020378934566578
Heavy-duty vehicles              per mile             0.166666666666667        0.12987012987013
Airplanes                        per seat-mile        0.018790084985836       0.009638554216867
Bus                              per seat-mile        0.032261698440208       0.032261698440208
Rail-passenger                   per seat-mile        0.024566724436742       0.024566724436742
Rail-freight                     per ton-mile         0.003639514731369       0.003639514731369
Marine                           per mile                    1.12                     1.12

Hydrogen
kg H2                                                        2005

Sector                           Sector unit                  Data              High efficiency
Residential

                                                      Assumed efficiency
- Single-family households       per household-yr     vs HC fuels                             0.8
- Multi-family households        per household-yr
- Average                        per household-yr                    624.35               379.77
Commercial                       per ft2-yr                            0.87                 0.69
Industrial                       per $1000 shipment                   30.91                 5.89
Agricultural                     per $1000 GSP                         0.95                 0.30
Other                            per capita-yr                        30.20                23.30
Light-duty vehicles
- Conventional gasoline engine   per mile

                                                      Assumed efficiency
                                                      of H2 fuel cell over
- Gasoline hybrid                per mile             electric drive:                        0.66
- Diesel                         per mile

- Average                        per mile                    0.012734174            0.012734174

Heavy-duty vehicles              per mile                    0.103237772            0.103237772
Airplanes                        per seat-mile                         0                      0
Bus                              per seat-mile               0.007276671            0.007276671
Rail-passenger                   per seat-mile               0.012279383            0.012279383
Rail-freight                     per ton-mile                0.001910126            0.001910126
Marine                           per mile                              0                      0

Heat                             (blank = n/a)
Million Btu                                                  2005

Sector                           Sector unit                  Data              High efficiency
Residential
                                                      Assumed efficiency
- Single-family households       per household-yr     over NG:                                0.9
- Multi-family households        per household-yr
- Average                        per household-yr                     98.57                 59.83
Commercial                       per ft2-yr                            0.14                  0.11
Industrial                       per $1000 shipment                    2.49                  0.93
Agricultural                     per $1000 GSP                         0.15                  0.05
Other                            per capita-yr   4.77   3.68
Light-duty vehicles
- Conventional gasoline engine   per mile
- Gasoline hybrid                per mile
- Diesel                         per mile
- Average                        per mile
Heavy-duty vehicles              per mile
Airplanes                        per seat-mile
Bus                              per seat-mile
Rail-passenger                   per seat-mile
Rail-freight                     per ton-mile
Marine                           per mile
                                             7098.369061



                                             5.189238799
   2050 Portrait                             155.3340262

Moderate efficiency   Low efficiency   Business As Usual
                                       (low efficiency)



      11,115             14,603             14,603
       15.55              21.17              21.17
      192.26             213.49             213.49
        6.85               6.85               6.85
        534                534                534
                                            #DIV/0!




       0.28               0.28                0.28

       2.27               2.27                1.02




       0.16               0.16                0.16


       0.27               0.27                0.27


      0.042               0.042              0.042
   2050 Portrait

Moderate efficiency   Low efficiency   Business As Usual
                                       (low efficiency)




       749                 906                906
       1.12                1.31               1.31
      10.32               11.61              16.15
       0.42                0.42               0.42
      33.12               33.12              33.12
                                            #DIV/0!




0.044908656422632 0.049531756537434 0.049531756537434
0.153866666666667 0.192333333333333 0.192333333333333
0.014384135977337 0.021338914443422 0.021338914443422
           0.03723           0.03723           0.03723
           0.02835           0.02835           0.02835
            0.0042            0.0042            0.0042
           1.29248           1.29248           1.29248




   2050 Portrait

Moderate efficiency   Low efficiency   Business As Usual
                                        (low efficiency)




                                                11.48


(see inverse values (see inverse values (see inverse values
      at right)           at right)           at right)

0.041597337770383 0.044903457566233


0.030506406345333 0.033749578130273

0.032010243277849 0.033311125916056

0.038915646813373 0.042921799425852 ################

0.133333333333333 0.166666666666667 ################


0.012464589235128 0.018491260349586 ################
       0.032261698       0.032261698 ################
       0.024566724       0.024566724 ################
       0.003639515       0.003639515 ################
              1.12              1.12              1.12

                                              #DIV/0!

                                        Average efficiency
                                        over conventional:
   2050 Portrait

Moderate efficiency                     Business As Usual



        0.                                      0.
        0.                                      0.
        0.                               11.476962429437
        0.                                      0.
        0.                                      0.

                                                  0.
                                                  0.
                                                 0.
0.038915646813373                        0.042921799425852
0.133333333333333                        0.166666666666667
0.012464589235128                        0.018491260349586
0.032261698440208                        0.032261698440208
0.024566724436742                        0.024566724436742
0.003639514731369                        0.003639514731369
       1.12                                     1.12


   2050 Portrait

Moderate efficiency   Low efficiency     Business As Usual




             526.85             637.58              637.58
               0.79               0.92                0.92
               7.26               8.17               20.69
               0.30               0.30                0.30
              23.31              23.31               23.31



based on electric
drive numbers
(above)


       0.012734174        0.012734174          0.012734174

       0.103237772        0.103237772                  0.04
                 0                  0                     0
       0.007276671        0.007276671          0.014285714
       0.012279383        0.012279383          0.012279383
       0.001910126        0.001910126          0.001910126
                 0                  0                     0


   2050 Portrait

Moderate efficiency                      Business As Usual




              83.18                                 100.66
               0.12                                   0.15
               1.15                                   1.79
               0.05                                   0.05
3.68   3.68
                                               BAU calculations
                                                                                           Derived BAU
                                             Overall energy             Derived BAU annual annual
                                             demand ratio               improvement rate   improvement rate
                                      94.58% (2050:2005)                (per $GSP)         (per $GSP/capita)



                                      32.48%                    1.6                 1.65%              0.74%
                                     267.08%                  2005                   2050

Comments                                       kWh/$1000GSP-yr          kWh/$1000GSP-yr


Not used; for reference only
Not used; for reference only
See breakdown at right                                      112.15                   52.93
See breakdown at right                                       86.80                   40.96
See breakdown at right                                      134.42                   63.44
See breakdown at right                                       16.20                    7.65
See breakdown at right                                       11.23                    5.30
(old eq.)
Not used; for reference only


Not used; for reference only
                                                                      Ratio to
Not used; for reference only                   BAU Btu                conventional ICE:   Effective mpgge:
Chris Yang (80in50 analysis - BEV)                                955              19.29%             120.79
Yang and Ogden 80in50 data; 2.27 for overall
sector                                                        3,497                18.18%              33.00
Not applicable



Yang and Ogden 80in50 data                                        546              14.66%             211.39


Yang and Ogden 80in50 data                                        921              32.50%             125.27


Yang and Ogden 80in50 data                                        143              34.12%

                                               Average electric
                                               efficiency over
Not applicable                                 conventional:                       21.11%
            Average (all ED
            transport including
            non-electrified / all
            CF transport)                      47.28%


            BAU calculations




                         2005              2050
            Mtherms/$1000GSP- Mtherms/$1000GSP-
            yr                yr




                              7.34                3.46
                              5.09                2.40 Industrial scaling:
                              8.96                4.23                     1
                              1.35                0.64
                              1.07                0.50
(old eq.)




            BAU calculations




                             2005                 2050

            gge/$1000GSP-yr          gge/$1000GSP-yr
% change (BAU - 2005)




                                     -38.46%                 7.47                 3.52




BAU Btu

                                          4,953 9.96261046906866 4.70182474433525

                                      19,233 2.71923861318831 1.28333667535592

                                                                                      Chris Yang's 2050
                                                 2.58327668252889    1.21916984158812 numbers:
                                          3,723 0.42485213550951    0.200507717291995         990
                                          2,835 0.059820224513913   0.028231979229185        1225
                                            420 0.022517363422471   0.010627003519376          61
                                                 1.22446227056424   0.577881371566069        56.11

(old eq.)


                                     29.35%




Assume same as conventional liquid fuel
Assume same as conventional liquid fuel
Assume same as conventional liquid fuel
Assume same as conventional liquid fuel
Assume same as conventional liquid fuel
Assume same as conventional liquid fuel
Assume same as conventional liquid fuel
Assume same as conventional liquid fuel
Assume same as conventional liquid fuel
Assume same as conventional liquid fuel
Assume same as conventional liquid fuel
Assume same as conventional liquid fuel




                                              Ratio to
BAU Btu                                       conventional ICE:


                                1447.515152               29.22% miles per kg H2   78.53

                                4546.867654               23.64% miles per kg H2   25.00
                                          0
                                1623.881305               43.62% seat-mi/kgH2      70.00
                                1395.818182               49.24%
                                217.1272727               51.70%
                                          0
Not applicable
Not applicable
Not applicable
Not applicable
Not applicable
Not applicable
Not applicable
                       Electricity
                       breakdown


                       Current electricity
                       demand
                              2005                                     2050 Portrait

                               Data            High efficiency      Moderate efficiency

% change (BAU -
2005)                          8,051               5,155                  6,602
                               4,583               2,679                  3,758
               7.73%           6,966               4,238                  5,712
               0.68%           15.87               11.08                  11.74
             -36.42%           91.47               46.42                  52.38
             -57.74%           14.49                6.12                   6.12
              18.16%            408                 482                    482

                       Worksheet:


                                                            2005 2050 Low effic.

                                             GWh/yr                 GWh/yr
                       Residential                         84,781              136,513
Chris Yang
suggestion             Commercial                          96,381              162,163
                       Industrial                          53,866              111,319



                       Agricultural                        21,314                 30,535


                       Other                               14,922                 26,426


                       Total                            271,264                466,956
                    Industrial TBtu:              183.790792

                    Natural gas
                    breakdown




                    Current natural gas
                    use
                           2005                                     2050 Portrait

                            Data             High efficiency     Moderate efficiency




% change (BAU -
2005)

            2.12%                    431                   262                   364
            6.43%                   0.30                  0.24                  0.28
          -27.86%                  11.52                  4.31                  5.31
          -68.60%                   0.14                  0.04                  0.04
          -22.82%                   4.14                  3.19                  3.19

                    Worksheet:


                                                          2005 2050 Low effic.
                                           Mtherms/yr          Mtherms/yr
                    Residential                          5,248                8,010
                    Commercial                           1,837                3,267
                    Industrial                           6,785              11,432
                    Agricultural                           210                  224
                    Other                                  151                  175
                    Total                               14,232              23,108

                    Industrial TBtu:                     678.5




Total consumption           2005
                            Data
                                old:
TBtu/yr                 270             500

gge/$1000 shipment      3.97

Parent values          2005                             2050 Portrait
(generates values at
left)                  Data        High efficiency   Moderate efficiency
miles per gallon
gasoline equivalent    20.35           39.81               24.04

miles per gallon
gasoline equivalent    23.97           55.29               32.78
miles per gallon
gasoline equivalent     24             55.85               31.24
miles per gallon
gasoline equivalent    20.36           49.07               25.70
miles per gallon
gasoline equivalent      6              7.7                 7.5
seat-miles per
gallon gasoline
equivalent              53.22         103.75               80.23
Btu/seat-mile           3723           3723                3723
Btu/seat-mile           2835           2835                2835
Btu/ton-mile             420            420                 420
MJ/veh-mile            153.68         153.68              153.68
                                (assume same as
                                2005)
Chris Yang
suggestion
Chris Yang
suggestion

80in50
                                                                            Energy equivalent
                                                                            (MBtu per unit)
                                                                                   2005
                                                       Old Moderate
      Low efficiency           Business As Usual       efficiency values:           Data
                               (low efficiency)
                                                                            Electrical thermal
                                                              7,210         efficiency
                                                              3,927
          7,505                       7,505                   6,262                      23.77
          15.98                       15.98                   14.81         0.054149838959328
          58.16                       58.16                                 0.312091682798438
           6.12                        6.12                                 0.049438047586676
           482                         482                                                1.39


                               BAU, ratio of
BAU 2050-equal to low          absolute units
effic                          (2050:2005)             TOTAL                               47.49

GWh/yr                                                 (elec + NG + oil)     0.07078659179977
                  136,513                       1.61                                      1.20

                  162,163                       1.68                        0.057301065941536
                  111,319                       2.07                                      1.62


                                                                            resistive:combustion
                   30,535                       1.43                        energy use ratio
                                                                            heat pump :
                                                                            combustion energy
                   26,426                       1.77                        use ratio

                                                                            Proportion of heat
                  466,956                       1.72                        pumps in baseline

                                                                            Average energy use
                                                                            relative to
                       0.00%                                                combustion
                                                                           Weighted average
                                                                           of portion replaced
                                                                           by 2050 times
                                                                           average efficiency
             379.8201089                                                   of replacement
                                                                           Weighted average
                                                                           energy use relative
                                                                           to baseline



                                                                           Electrical energy
                                                                           equivalent (MBtu
                                                                           per unit)
                                                                                   2005

      Low efficiency          Business As Usual                                    Data
                              (low efficiency)

                                                                           NG thermal
                                                                           efficiency (assuming
                                                                           some use of heat
                                                                           pumps):
                                                                           Industrial factor
                        440          440                                                   23.72
                       0.32          0.32                                  0.016636752840441
                       5.97          8.31                                  0.633681439972831
                       0.04          0.04                                  0.007863018354861
                       3.19          3.19                                  0.227523939808482


                          BAU, ratio of
BAU 2050-equal to low     absolute units
effic                     (2050:2005)
Mtherms/yr
                    8,010                   1.53
                    3,267                   1.78
                   11,432                   1.68
                      224                   1.06
                      175                   1.16
                   23,108                   1.62
                    0.00%
            1143.186352



                                                   Fraction of total
                                                   (derived from           Energy equivalent
                                                   calculation at right)   (MBtu per unit)
                              Business As Usual                                   2005

                                                                                   Data
                                                             Petroleum thermal
                                                             efficiency (assuming
                                                             some use of heat
                                                             pumps):

                                     old:                                      0
                       540                            1000                     0

                       2.44                  877.5343861                    0.25
                                                                               0
                                                                               0
                 Business As Usual
Low efficiency    (low efficiency)

    22.27                            Worksheet:


    29.63                                                                   2005

    30.02                                                    Mgge/yr

    23.30             23.30          Light-duty vehicles                  14,655

      6                6.00          Heavy-duty vehicles                   4,000


    54.08             54.08          Airplanes                             3,800
    3723              3,723          Bus                                     625
    2835              2,835          Rail-passenger                           88
     420               420           Rail-freight                          33.12
   153.68              n/a           Marine                             1,801.18

                                     Total                                25,002
                           2050 Portrait

  High efficiency       Moderate efficiency           Low efficiency      Business As Usual
                                                                          (low efficiency)

                    1

             14.46                      19.49            25.61             25.61
 0.03779237323689                 0.04005688 ################ 0.054517808928985
0.158371316804408         0.178709293625914 ################ 0.198443108115698
0.020896139633887         0.020890033286545 ################ 0.020891672003124
              1.65                       1.65             1.65              1.65




              28.85                        39.50

0.051073265340567         0.055214531000099
     #VALUE!                #VALUE!

0.023366339719029           0.02335935351915
              1.82                       1.82

                   (100 kWh elec/100 kWh      Data from Victor
                   thermal) / (100 kWh gas/80 Franco (LBNL) on
               80% kWh thermal) = 80/100      water heaters:

                                                   Electric resistive
               30%                                 efficiency                           0.95
                                                   Heat pump
                                                   efficiency (2015
               50%                                 std.)                                      2

                                                   Heat pump
                                                   efficiency (max tech
               55% assume 100% electrified         - Japan)                                   3
                                             Gas baseline
                0.4                          efficiency                        0.59
                                             Gas condensing
                                             efficiency (2015
               0.82                          standard)                         0.77




                         2050 Portrait

  High efficiency     Moderate efficiency       Low efficiency   Business As Usual
                                                                 (low efficiency)




              0.55
              45%
             14.39                   20.01               24.22                24.22
0.013280892103677       0.015157651000099    ################    0.017705682782019
0.236893939393939       0.292011494252874    ################    0.374827283487565
0.002470200085143       0.002469320232605    ################    0.002469022517246
0.175552825552826       0.175602409638554    ################    0.175607142857143

                                                                            0.39922




                         2050 Portrait

  High efficiency     Moderate efficiency       Low efficiency   Business As Usual
                  0.55                                                 0




n/a                      n/a                        n/a                     0.16




                                                    BAU, ratio of
                         BAU 2050-equal to low      absolute units
2050 Low effic.          effic                      (2050:2005)

Mgge/yr                  Mgge/yr

             25,469                        25,469                    1.74

              7,875                         7,875                    1.97


              6,527                         6,527                    1.72
                937                           937                    1.50
                132                           132                    1.50
              88.32                            88                    2.67
           2,699.56                         2,700                    1.50

             43,728                        43,728                    1.75


                                            0.00%
Current use as
fraction of total elec
+ NG + oil (in
energy equivalents)
         2005                                  2050 Portrait

        Data             High efficiency    Moderate efficiency   Low efficiency    Business As Usual
                                                                                    (used in all calcs)



                  50%                 50%                  49%                51%                  51%
                  76%                 74%                  73%                75%                  75%
                  26%      #VALUE!              #VALUE!             #VALUE!                        27%
                  86%                 89%                  89%                89%                  89%
                  86%                 90%                  90%                90%                  90%




Get similar results to
those at left:
Resistive (current):
combustion (2015)
energy use ratio                      81%
heat pump (2015) :
combustion (2015)
energy use ratio                      39%
heat pump (max
tech) : combustion
(2015) energy use
ratio                                 26%
Heat pump average                     32%




Current use as
fraction of total elec
+ NG + oil (in
energy equivalents)
         2005                                  2050 Portrait

        Data             High efficiency    Moderate efficiency   Low efficiency    Business As Usual
                                                                                    (used in all calcs)




                  50%                 50%                  51%                49%                  49%
                  24%                 26%                  27%                25%                  25%
                  53%      #VALUE!              #VALUE!             #VALUE!                        51%
                  14%                 11%                  11%                11%                  11%
                  14%                 10%                  10%                10%                  10%




Current use as
fraction of total elec
+ NG + oil (in         (assume same for
energy equivalents) future)
         2005                                  2050 Portrait

        Data             High efficiency    Moderate efficiency   Low efficiency    Business As Usual
      (used in all calcs)




0%                      0%
0%                      0%

21%                    21%
 0%                     0%
 0%                     0%
Carrier share by sector
for each carrier portrait
Conventional Fuels Stress
Test (BAU-C)

Carrier to sector distribution    Carrier
                                                        Conventional
                                                        Gaseous fuel          Conventional Liquid
(arbitrary units)                 Electricity           (natural gas)         Fuels
Sector
Residential
- Single-family households
                                  (fractions from
                                  sector2carrier sheet,
                                  moderate efficiency (1 - electricity - liquid (from sector2carrier
- Multi-family households         case)                 fuels)                  sheet)
- Total                                           51%                     49%                    0%
Commercial                                        75%                     25%                    0%
Industrial                                        27%                     51%                  21%
Agricultural                                      89%                     11%                    0%
Other                                             90%                     10%                    0%
Light-duty vehicles
- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                                                                                       100%
Heavy-duty vehicles                                                                           100%
Airplanes                                                                                     100%
Bus                                                                                           100%
Rail-passenger                                                                                100%
Rail-freight                                                                                  100%
Marine                                                                                        100%

Electricity Stress Test (BAU-E)

Carrier to sector distribution    Carrier
                                                        Conventional
                                                        Gaseous fuel          Conventional Liquid
(arbitrary units)                 Electricity           (natural gas)         Fuels
Sector
Residential
- Single-family households
                                  (assume all
                                  stationary demand
                                  can be met by
- Multi-family households         electricity)
- Total                                         100%                     0%
Commercial                                      100%                     0%
Industrial                                      100%                     0%
Agricultural                                    100%                     0%
Other                                           100%                     0%
Light-duty vehicles
- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid
                                 (ratios for each
                                 sector from expert
                                 committee
- Diesel                         judgment)                                    (1 - electricity)
- Total                                          100%                                               0%
Heavy-duty vehicles                               33%                                              67%
Airplanes                                          0%                                             100%
Bus                                              100%                                               0%
Rail-passenger                                   100%                                               0%
Rail-freight                                     100%                                               0%
Marine                                             0%                                             100%

Hydrogen Stress Test (BAU-H)

Carrier to sector distribution   Carrier
                                                        Conventional
                                                        Gaseous fuel          Conventional Liquid
(arbitrary units)                Electricity            (natural gas)         Fuels
Sector
Residential
- Single-family households
                                 (use same ratios as
- Multi-family households        CF case)            (1 - electricity)
- Total                                        100%                      0%                         0%
Commercial                                     100%                      0%                         0%
Industrial                                      64%
Agricultural                                   100%                      0%                         0%
Other                                          100%                      0%                         0%
Light-duty vehicles
- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid

- Diesel                                                                      (remainder)
- Total                                                                                             0%
Heavy-duty vehicles                                                                                67%
Airplanes                                                                                         100%
Bus                                                                                                 0%
Rail-passenger                                                                                      0%
Rail-freight                                                                                        0%
Marine                                                                                            100%

Base Case (EE)

Carrier to sector distribution   Carrier
                                                        Conventional
                                                        Gaseous fuel          Conventional Liquid
(arbitrary units)                Electricity            (natural gas)         Fuels
Sector
Residential
                                 Fraction of full
- Single-family households       electrification:
- Multi-family households                           70%
- Total                                             85%                    15%                    0%
Commercial                                          93%                     7%                    0%




Industrial                                        27%                      51%                   21%
Agricultural                                     97%                        3%                    0%
Other                                            97%                        3%                    0%
                                 Industrial TBtu and
Light-duty vehicles              true shares:
- Conventional gasoline engine                    371                       592                   287
- Gasoline hybrid                                30%                       47%                   23%
- Diesel                                                                          (remainder)
- Total                                              44%                                         56%
Heavy-duty vehicles                                  18%                                         82%
Airplanes                                             0%                                        100%
Bus                                                 100%                                          0%
Rail-passenger                                      100%                                          0%
Rail-freight                                        100%                                          0%
Marine                                                0%                                        100%

Hydrogen Case (EEH)

Carrier to sector distribution   Carrier
                                                           Conventional
                                                           Gaseous fuel           Conventional Liquid
(arbitrary units)                Electricity               (natural gas)          Fuels
Sector
Residential
- Single-family households

- Multi-family households        (same as ML above)
- Total                                          85%                       15%                    0%
Commercial                                       93%                        7%                    0%
Industrial                                       27%                       30%                   21%
Agricultural                                     97%                        3%                    0%
Other                                            97%                        3%                    0%
                                 Industrial TBtu and
Light-duty vehicles              true shares:
- Conventional gasoline engine                    371                       345                   287
- Gasoline hybrid                                27%                       25%                   21%

                                 (some modifications
- Diesel                         to ML)
- Total                                         22%                                              22%
Heavy-duty vehicles                              9%                                              82%
Airplanes                                        0%                                             100%
Bus                                         0%                                          0%
Rail-passenger                            100%                                          0%
Rail-freight                              100%                                          0%
Marine                                      0%                                        100%

Carrier thermal
interconversions
                                                                      Conventional
                                                                      Gaseous fuel
                            To:                   Electricity         (natural gas)
From                        Units                 kWh                 Therms


Electricity                 kWh                                  1.              0.03412
Conventional Gaseous fuel
(natural gas)               Therms                29.3083235638921                       1.




Conventional Liquid Fuels   gallons gasoline eq   33.8218053927315                    1.154

Hydrogen                    kg H2                   33.315267104472 1.13671691360459


Heat                        Million Btu           293.083235638921                      10.

Biomass                     dry tons              2,705.74443141852                   92.32




                            1 MJ =                0.277789269611207 0.009478169879134




1 MJ/yr =                   0.000000000031688 GW


                            kWh per kg H2:         49.1375621009912
                                  Heather biomass
                                  conversion:




                                  1 dt biomass =                                 8.5 Mbtu




Carrier to primary demand
conversion
1 GW-thermal =                    29,910,829.3777771 MBtu/yr

                                                             Conventional
                                                             Gaseous fuel           Conventional Liquid
                                  Electricity                (natural gas)          Fuels
                                                                                    Million gallons
                                                                                    gasoline
Units--->                         GWh/yr                     Million therms/yr      equivalent/yr
Thermal factor (secondary -->
primary)                                                3.                     1.                    1.
Scale factor (kW-->GW etc.)                     1,000,000.             1,000,000.            1,000,000.
Multiply by this to get primary
demand (GW-thermal)               0.000342217190661 0.003343270717672 0.003858134408193
Unconventional
Liquid fuels     Hydrogen   Heat   Sum (should = 1)




                                                  100%
                                                  100%
                                                  100%
                                                  100%
                                                  100%




                                                  100%
                                                  100%
                                                  100%
                                                  100%
                                                  100%
                                                  100%
                                                  100%




Unconventional
Liquid fuels     Hydrogen   Heat   Sum (should = 1)




                                                  100%
                                                  100%
                                                  100%
                                                  100%
                                                  100%
                                                             100%
                                                             100%
                                                             100%
                                                             100%
                                                             100%
                                                             100%
                                                             100%




Unconventional
Liquid fuels     Hydrogen              Heat   Sum (should = 1)



                 (industrial is only
                 large-scale H2 use)
                                                             100%
                                                             100%
                                36%                          100%
                                                             100%
                                                             100%



                 (use same ratios as
                 ED case)
                               100%                          100%
                                33%                          100%
                                  0%                         100%
                               100%                          100%
                               100%                          100%
                               100%                          100%
                                  0%                         100%




Unconventional
Liquid fuels     Hydrogen              Heat   Sum (should = 1)
                                                                  100%
                                                                  100%
Handle crudely --
just assume
unchanged and
make adjustments
to electricity, NG, oil
use elsewhere                                                     100%
                                                                  100%
                                                                  100%


                                                                 1,250


                                      0%                          100%
                                      0%                          100%
                                      0%                          100%
                                      0%                          100%
                                      0%                          100%
                                      0%                          100%
                                      0%                          100%




Unconventional
Liquid fuels              Hydrogen          Heat   Sum (should = 1)




                                      0%                          100%
                                      0%                          100%
                                     21%                          100%
                                      0%                          100%
                                      0%                          100%


                                      359                        1,363
                                     26%



                                     56%                          100%
                                      9%                          100%
                                      0%                          100%
                               100%                                          100%
                                 0%                                          100%
                                 0%                                          100%
                                 0%                                          100%




Conventional Liquid
Fuels               Hydrogen          Heat                     Biomass              Ancillary data
gallons gasoline eq kg H2             Million Btu              dry tons


################ ################                   0.003412    0.000369584055459 1 kWh =

################ ################                        0.1    0.010831889081456 1 therm =




                1. 1.01520438922705                   0.1154                0.0125 1 gallon gasoline =

################                 1. 0.113671691360459            0.01231279152518 1 kg H2 =


8.66551126516464 8.79726507129159                         1.    0.108318890814558 1 dry ton biomass =

               80. 81.2163511381639                    9.232                    1. 1 dry ton biomass =




0.008213318786078 0.008338197281748 0.000947816987913           0.000102666484826 1 scf NG =




                                                                                    1 Mcf NG = 1000
                                                                                    scf (M = Roman
                                                                                    1000, not Mega) =
                                                                      1 kg H2 =




                                                                      1 Btu =




Unconventional
Liquid fuels          Hydrogen                Heat
Million gallons
gasoline
equivalent/yr         Million kg H2/yr        Trillion Btu/yr

                 1.                      1.                      1.
         1,000,000.              1,000,000.              1,000,000.

0.308650752655462 0.003800352371536 0.033432707176718
10%
 5%
 0%
20%
 0%
 0%
 0%
                  References

                  http://www.eia.doe.g
                  ov/basics/conversio
   3412 Btu       n_basics.html
                  http://en.wikipedia.or
 100000 Btu       g/wiki/Therm



                  www.eia.doe.gov/oi
                  af/servicerpt/hydro/p
 115400 Btu LHV   df/appendixb.pdf                      124340 Btu HHV
                  see below for
113,672 Btu LHV   conversion
                                           Don't know why
                                           these don't match,
     80 gge                                but don't use them:

9232000 Btu



                  http://bioenergy.ornl.
                  gov/papers/misc/en
    930 Btu LHV   ergy_conv.html                           983 Btu LHV



                  http://bioenergy.ornl.
                  gov/papers/misc/en
   1027 Btu HHV   ergy_conv.html                          1089 Btu HHV
                  www.eia.doe.gov/oi
                  af/servicerpt/hydro/p
   1029 Btu HHV   df/appendixb.pdf
                                      (use approximate
                                      value as different
                  http://www.santaene sources all report
                  rgy.com/Commercia different Btus per
  10.29 therm     l/calculations.html scf)
                     www1.eere.energy.g
                     ov/hydrogenandfuel
                     cells/tech.../fcm01r0
     119.93 MJ LHV   .pdf

                     http://hydrogen.pnl.g
                     ov/cocoon/morf/hydr
                     ogen/site_specific/fu
                     el_heating_calculato
     141.88 MJ HHV   r?canprint=false
                     http://www.unitconv
                     ersion.org/energy/m
                     egajoules-to-btus-it-
0.001055056 MJ       conversion.html
http://hydrogen.pnl.g
ov/cocoon/morf/hydr
ogen/site_specific/fu
el_heating_calculato
r?canprint=false




http://hydrogen.pnl.g
ov/cocoon/morf/hydr
ogen/site_specific/fu
el_heating_calculato
r?canprint=false

http://hydrogen.pnl.g
ov/cocoon/morf/hydr
ogen/site_specific/fu
el_heating_calculato
r?canprint=false
Carbon
                                                                           Carbon per unit final
                                                                           energy
                          Carbon content per unit                          (use conversion
                          primary energy                                   efficiency below)

Technology                gCO2eq/MJ                                        per GWh


Coal                                           90.28 Metric ton CO2eq                           800

Coal/CCS                                        9.03 Metric ton CO2eq                      80.00


Petroleum                                      50.30 Metric ton CO2eq                           905


Natural gas comb cycle                         67.07 Metric ton CO2eq                        360
Natural gas/CCS                                 6.71 Metric ton CO2eq                      36.00
Natural gas load-
                                                                                            569
following
Nuclear                                         0.00 Metric ton CO2eq                            0


Biomass & waste                                 0.00 Metric ton CO2eq                          0
Biomass/CCS                                          Metric ton CO2eq                       -800
Solar PV                                           0 Metric ton CO2eq                          0
Solar concentrating                                0 Metric ton CO2eq                          0
Wind                                               0 Metric ton CO2eq                          0
Geothermal                                         0 Metric ton CO2eq                          0
Hydro                                              0 Metric ton CO2eq                          0
Ocean                                              0 Metric ton CO2eq                          0
All RE except biomass                              0 Metric ton CO2eq                          0
Coal/CCS capture rate                          81.26 Metric ton CO2eq                        720


Specific to petroleum
liquid fuels:             EIA data (not lifecycle):
                          gCO2/gge                    gge/MgCO2
Gasoline                                        8,187           122.15
Diesel                                          8,448           118.37
Jet fuel                                        8,181           122.23
Residual/bunker fuel                            9,103           109.86

CA-specific fuels:
                          gCO2e/MJ                     Direct emissions
http://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/010611lcfs_lutables.pdf
Gasoline                                         95.86                67.24 See above
Diesel                                           94.71                69.39
Jet fuel - not given                                                  67.20
Residual fuel - not given                                             74.76
(various ethanol & biodiesel substitutes -- not used here as we have our own estimates)
Natural Gas                                      68.00                57.56 Frac of fossil NG
Biogas from landfill                        11.26                                      17%
Biogas from dairy                           13.45                                      20%
(use of 20% for biogas seems reasonable, based on above)

Carbon inventory

                                               1990                     2004           2005
                                                        http://www.arb.ca.go
                                                        v/cc/inventory/data/t
                           http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/i   ables/ghg_inventory
                           nventory/archive/tables/g    _ipcc_00-
Million metric tons        hg_inventory_ipcc_90_04      08_sum_2010-05-
CO2eq/yr                   _sum_2007-11-19.pdf          12.pdf                same
Energy (categ. 1)                             386.41                  422.52         414.22

included in above:
Electricity                                    90.50                  94.69           87.72


Cars                                           63.75                  62.24           60.88
Light trucks                                   44.75                  71.20           72.53
Heavy trucks & buses                           29.03                  34.98           36.31
Motorcycles                                     0.43                   0.58            0.59
Rail                                            2.33                   2.89            3.32
Aviation (domestic)                             5.13                   2.64             2.7
Marine (24 mi of coast)                         2.21                   4.06            4.36
Unspecified
CEF total                                     386.41                 422.52          414.22

Excluded from CEF total:

Industrial processes &
cement (categ. 2)                              18.34                  27.97           28.75
Ag, Forestry & other
Land Use (categ. 3)                            19.11                  24.51           24.58
Waste (categ. 4)                                9.42                   8.89            9.19

Subtotal                                       46.87                  61.37           62.52




Official gross CA
emissions (categ. 1-4)                        433.28                 483.89          476.74
Sinks from forests &
rangelands                                     -6.69                  -4.32           -4.17
Official net CA
emissions                                     426.59                 479.57          472.57

Energy share of total:                       90.58%                 88.10%           87.65%
Excluded from state
inventory:
Aviation
(interstate/international)                                                        33.95                    28.9                     30.29
Marine (international)                                                            25.06                     9.9                     12.67
Non-specified (mostly
"mobile aviation")                                                                    0                 3.44                         2.51
Subtotal                                                                          59.01                42.24                        45.47

Net addition to energy
emissions                                                                         40.18                57.05                        58.35




Per capita calcs

                             CA 1990                                                      CA 2005                 CA 2020 Target
Pop (Millions)                                                                    29.18                36.55                   43.18
CO2 (MtCO2e/yr)                                                                  426.59               472.57                  426.59
Co2 per capita (tCO2e/yr)                                                         14.62                12.93                     9.88

Latest (2007) pop proj (M)                                                        29.83                36.96                        44.14


                                                                           Per capita CO2 Emissions
                                                                       25.00                                                23.40
                                Metric tons CO2e per capita per year




                                                                       20.00
                                                                                14.62
                                                                       15.00              12.93
                                                                                                    9.88
                                                                       10.00

                                                                        5.00
                                                                                                                  1.56
                                                                        0.00
                                                                               CA 1990 CA 2005 CA 2020 CA 2050 US 2003
                                                                                                Target  Target


OLD STUFF


Efficiency of
conversion                                                                                                        Electricity
final energy / primary
energy
                                                                                                                  Data from EPRI,
Technology                                                                                                        12/09
                         *These CFs derived from
                         comparison of observed
Coal (PC)                CO2 emissions           *                                        0.38
Coal (IGCC)/CCS                                                                             0.3
Petroleum                                            *                                      0.2
Natural gas                                          *                                    0.44
Natural gas/CCS                                                                          0.376
Nuclear                                                                                     0.4
Biomass & waste                                                                             0.4
                                                     (relative to
                                                     electricity; here all
                                                     non-electric
                                                     assumes
Solar PV                                             electrolysis)                            1
Solar concentrating                                                                           1
Wind                                                                                          1
Geothermal                                                                                    1
Hydro                                                                                         1
Ocean                                                                                         1


Carbon data


GREET Fleet Footprint
Calculator 1.1, uses
GREET 1.8d.0 7/30/2010
(http://greet.es.anl.gov/
files/fleet_calculator_1_
1.xls)                    Upstream                 Total lifecycle       Tailpipe
                          gCO2eq/Btu               gCO2eq/Btu            gCO2eq/Btu
Gasoline                                   0.01879               0.09639            0.07759
Diesel                                     0.01907               0.09903            0.07996

Natural gas (CNG North
American)                                   0.0174                 0.07814            0.06073

From NETL (2009,
http://www.netl.doe.gov/e
nergy-
analyses/pubs/Petroleum
Fuels GHG                 Well-to-tank (upstream)    Well-to-wheels (total Deduced tailpipe
Modeling_Feb 25a.pdf) emissions                      lifecycle emissions) emissions
(Additional
documentation, including
breakdown by LCA
stage, at
http://www.netl.doe.gov/e
nergy-
analyses/pubs/NETL
LCA Petroleum-Based
Fuels Nov 2008.pdf)       kgCO2eq/million Btu LHV
- gasoline                                    19.6                         96.3            76.7
- diesel                                      18.4                           95            76.6
- jet fuel (kerosene)                         15.1                         92.9            77.8

                                                               gCO2-eq/MJ
Conventional liquid fuel                                          1990              2050
- gasoline                    petroleum                                        92            92
- diesel                      petroleum                                        90            90
- jet fuel (kerosene)         petroleum                                        90          95.3
- residual fuel oil (marine
bunker fuel)                petroleum                                          90          95.3
                            isn't there a FT/BTL
- gasoline                  option for this?                                   1             1
                            biomass (FT/BTL, CA
- diesel                    poplar)                      ---                                4.9
                            isn't there a FT/BTL
- jet fuel (kerosene)       option for this?                                   1             1
- residual fuel oil (marine isn't there a FT/BTL
bunker fuel)                option for this?                                   1             1

Unconventional liquid
fuel
- ethanol (gasoline           biomass (CA Poplar,
substitute)                   Cellulosic)                ---                                6.4

- DME (diesel substitute) biomass (CA poplar)            ---                                5.4

                              Natural Gas, pipeline w/
Hydrogen                      CCS                        ---                               15.2
                              Biomass, pipeline          ---                               17.3

                              Electrolysis, onsite, 100%
                              renewable grid mix         ---                                 0

Complete list of fuel
options

From
http://www.energy.ca.gov
/ab1007/index.html (not
sure this is right
reference; didn't find data
directly on this link)                                         Lifecycle CO2
                                                          gCO2-eq/MJ
Carrier                    Technology                        1990             2050
                           Natural Gas Combined
Electricity                Cycle                    ---                              134.6
                           Natural Gas Combined
                           Cycle w/ CCS             ---                               20.2
                           Nuclear                  ---                                1.6
                           Wind, Solar, Other
                           renewables               ---                                  0
                           Biomass                  ---                               14.5
                           Coal, IGCC               ---                              345.3
                           Coal, IGCC w/ CCS        ---                               63.4
                           California average
                           electric grid mix                      111.6 ---

Conventional gaseous       Liquefied Natural Gas
fuel (natural gas)         (LNG)                                   72.6               75.8
                           Compressed Natural Gas
                           (CNG)                                   65.7               67.2
                           Liquefied Petroleum
                           Gases (LPG)                             77.4               77.1

Conventional liquid fuel
- gasoline                 petroleum                                   92               92
- gasoline                 Tar Sands                ---                              104.6
- gasoline                 Gas-to-Liquids           ---                              100.9
- gasoline                 Coal-to-Liquids          ---                              210.3
- gasoline                 Coal-to-Liquids w/ CCS   ---                              103.9
- gasoline                 Oil Shale                ---                                123
- diesel                   petroleum                                   90               90
- diesel                   Tar Sands                ---                              104.6
- diesel                   Gas-to-Liquids           ---                              100.9
- diesel                   Coal-to-Liquids          ---                              210.3
- diesel                   Coal-to-Liquids w/ CCS   ---                              103.9
- diesel                   Oil Shale                ---                                124
                           biomass (FT/BTL, CA
- diesel                   poplar)                  ---                                4.9

- diesel                   Biomass (FAME, Canola) ---                                 24.7
                           Biomass (FAME,
- diesel                   SoyBean)               ---                                 31.6
                           Biomass (FAME,
- diesel                   Mustard)               ---                                 38.5

- diesel                   Biomass (NERD, Canola) ---                                 25.8
                           Biomass (NERD, Palm
- diesel                   Oil)                   ---                                 29.1
- jet fuel (kerosene)      petroleum                                   90             95.3
- residual fuel oil (marine
bunker fuel)                petroleum                                  90             95.3
Unconventional liquid
fuel
- methanol              biomass (CA poplar)        ---                5.1
- DME                   biomass (CA poplar)        ---                5.4
                        biomass (Brazil Sugar
- ethanol               Cane)                      ---                13

                        biomass (Corn, natural
- ethanol               gas, wet DGS co-product)   ---                59
                        biomass (Corn, Midwest
- ethanol               avg. production)           ---               74.7
- ethanol               biomass (Corn, coal)       ---              111.2
                        biomass (Corn, natural
- ethanol               gas)                       ---               67.4
                        biomass (CA Corn,
                        natural gas, wet DGS co-
- ethanol               product)                   ---               48.9
                        biomass (CA Poplar,
- ethanol               Cellulosic)                ---                6.4
                        biomass (CA Forest
- ethanol               Residue, Cellulosic)       ---               13.1
                        biomass (CA
- ethanol               Switchgrass, Cellulosic)   ---               17.9

                        biomass (Midwest Prairie
- ethanol               Grass, Cellulosic)       ---                 11.8

- butanol               Biomass (Corn, Midwest) ---                   75
                        Biomass (Cellulosic
- butanol               biomass)                ---                  12.3

Potential Land Use
Change Impacts of
Biofuels (additional
increases on top of
values shown above)                                Low       High
                        Corn-based fuels                 0           104
                        Cellulosic Biomass-based
                        fuels                            0           111
                        Biodiesel, Methanol,
                        DME, Sugar Cane
                        Ethanol                          0           100

Hydrogen                Natural Gas, pipeline      ---              101.1
                        Natural Gas, pipeline w/
                        CCS                        ---               15.2
                        Natural Gas, on-site       ---                 90
                        Natural Gas, liquid H2
                        truck                      ---              111.9
                        Natural Gas, liquid H2
                        truck w/ CCS               ---               16.8
                        Biomass, pipeline          ---               17.3
Coal, pipeline              ---   185.1
Coal, pipeline w/ CCS       ---    45.7
Electrolysis, onsite, CA
grid mix                    ---   138.2
Electrolysis, onsite, 70%
renewable grid mix          ---    78.9

Electrolysis, onsite, 100%
renewable grid mix         ---       0
                                                    0.00947817
                                            (OLD - DO NOT
                                            USE)
                      Derived heat rate
Derived efficiency    (Btu/MWh)             per million therms       per million gge           per million gge


                41%                                        9,525                   10,992                  879,390

                41%                                          953                       1,099                 87,939


                20%                                        5,307                       6,124               489,946


                47%                  7206                  7,076                       8,166               653,261
                47%                  7263                    708                         817                65,326

                30%                 11379
                                                                 0                        0                         0


               40%                                               0                        0                         0
               47%                   60%                         0                        0                         0
                                                                 0                        0                         0
                                                                 0                        0                         0
                                                                 0                        0                         0
                                                                 0                        0                         0
                                                                 0                        0                         0
                                                                 0                        0                         0
                                                                 0                        0                         0




                                            lbs CO2/MBtu             MBtu/gge                  g/lb.
                                                           156.4                   0.1154                    453.59
                                                           161.4                   0.1154                    453.59
                                                           156.3                   0.1154                    453.59
                                                           173.9                   0.1154                    453.59


Calculated markup rel. to CA                                   Calc'd markup
                                            NETL LC emiss (below)                          Difference
               43%                                          92                         37%                       5.7%
               36%                                          90                         30%                       6.8%
                                                            90                         34% Average:
                                                            90                         20%                       6.3%

                18%                                         65.7                       14%                        4%
         2008                         2020 Projection




same            20% of 1990 level
        413.8                                       414.9      2005 totals
                Comm/Resid                           45.3      Total
                Industrial                           75.3
       100.03                                       110.4

                                                        127
        58.57
        68.86                                                  LDV
        34.79                                           41.2   HDV
          0.6                                                  Airplanes
         2.52                                         3.6      Bus
         2.42                                         3.3      Rail-passenger
         4.32                                           6      Rail-freight
                                                      2.9      Marine
        413.8                77.282                 414.9




        30.11                                           54.1

        24.42                                           29.3
         9.41                                            8.5

        63.94                 9.374                     91.9




       477.74                                       506.8

        -3.98                -1.338                       0

       473.76                85.318                 506.8

       87.34%               90.58%                81.87%
            29.65
            13.55

             2.03
            45.23


            59.96            8.036




CA 2050 Target     US 2003
             54.78
            85.318
              1.56           23.40

            59.51




                                     Conventional
                                     Gaseous fuel    Conventional Liquid Unconventional
                                     (natural gas)   Fuels               Liquid fuels
          0.8               0.8                 0.8
          0.7               0.7                 0.7
          0.8               0.9                 0.9
          0.9               0.8                 0.8

          0.5               0.5                 0.5
          0.8               0.8                 0.8




          0.5               0.5                  0.5
          0.5               0.5                  0.5
          0.5               0.5                  0.5
          0.5               0.5                  0.5
          0.5               0.5                  0.5
          0.5               0.5                  0.5




             Energy content       Energy content
Markup       (LHV)                (HHV)
             Btu/gal              Btu/gal
         24%             116090               124340
         24%             129488               138490
             Btu/cu ft            Btu/cu ft

         29%               983                 1089




Markup
                26%
                24%
                19%

      gCO2-eq/gge                   Markup rel. to EIA
         1990          2050                         1990
               10997          10997                 34%
               10758          10758                 27%
               10758          11394                 31%

              10758           11394                 18%

                  1               1 need numbers!

---                             582

                  1               1 need numbers!

                  1               1 need numbers!




---                             764

---                             642


---                            1813
---                            2067


---                               0
      gCO2-eq/gge
         1990             2050

---                              16083

---                              2412
---                               185

---                                  0
---                               1733
---                              41274
---                               7572

              13336 ---


               8679              9064

               7852              8037

               9246              9212


              10997              10997
---                              12506
---                              12059
---                              25134
---                              12413
---                              14702
              10758              10758
---                              12506
---                              12059
---                              25134
---                              12413
---                              14822

---                               582

---                              2949

---                              3776

---                              4602

---                              3085

---                               3480
              10758              11394

              10758              11394
---               610
---               642

---              1548


---              7050

---               8927
---              13287

---              8058


---              5845

---               764

---              1565

---              2134


---              1414

---              8965

---              1469




Low       High
      0          12431

      0          13268


      0          11953

---              12089

---               1813
---              10758

---              13377

---              2007
---              2067
---   22125
---    5460

---   16524

---   9425


---      0
                        mol co2                     mol h2                ratio                  kg CO2/kg H2

                                         1300                     2830            0.459363958           10.10600707

From Molburg & Doctor, 2003, http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=2&sqi=2&ved=0CCgQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F
                                                                             metric tons CO2 per
per million kg H2  per trillion Btu      therms per MgCO2                    MBtu


               10,828                  95,255                                                            0.095254511
                                                                                                 Assumed capture
                1,250                   9,525                                                    efficiency


                6,033                  53,070                                                             0.05307037


                8,043                  70,760                    141.32                                 0.070760494
                  804                   7,076

                9,900
                    0                           0
                                                                                                 Assumed net
                                                                                                 emissions rel. to
                    0                           0                                                petroleum
                    0                           0
                    0                           0
                    0                           0
                    0                           0
                    0                           0
                    0                           0
                    0                           0
                    0                           0


(from data below,
lifecycle gCO2-         Ratio of lifecycle to       Scaled EIA
eq/gge in 2050):        fuel only CO2:              emissions             scaling factor
                                                    gCO2/gge                               1.3
               10997                      1.34                   10,643
               10758                      1.27                   10,983
               11394                      1.39                   10,636
               11394                      1.25                   11,833


Extrapolated         CA markup to use
                                   40%
                                   40%
                 40%               40%
                 27%               30%

                                         20%
                                            1.32 average




CEF Ggge                 CARB MtCO2       MtCO2/Ggge
                 25.00             223.65       8.945191325


                                                   Calc'd MtCO2 from
                                                   CEF (using above
                                                   avg. GHG emiss)
                 14.66               133.41                    131.09
                  4.00                 36.31                    35.78
                  3.80                 32.99                    33.99
                  0.62 (n/a)                                      5.59
                  0.09                  3.32                      0.79
                  0.03 (part of above)                            0.30
                  1.80                 17.03                    16.11



Calculation of                                                                                 Using LCA
marine                                                                                         gCO2eq/gge (1990
consumption:             gCO2/gge                  CARB MtCO2 2005 Implied Ggge/yr             values below)

Jet fuel                                  8,181                  32.99                  4.03               10758
Marine bunker fuel                        9,103                  17.03                  1.87               10758
Jet fuel/marine
bunker fuel ratio                                                 1.94                  2.16
                         Total CARB
                         inventory (incl. int'l
                         bunkers):
                                                                         Water-borne
                                                                         (MtCO2/yr), GHG
Conclusion: use                                                          inventory 2010-05-
rounded number                                                           12                                 2004

Jet fuel                                     3.8 Ggge/yr                 Included                           4.06

Marine bunker fuel                           1.8 Ggge/yr                 Excluded                            9.9
Jet fuel/marine
bunker fuel ratio                           2.11                         Total                             13.96
                                ratio:




hydrogen   heat


           (assumes transport
           losses)
0.5   0.7
0.5   0.6
0.5   0.7
0.5   0.7

0.5   0.7
0.5   0.7




0.5   0.7
0.5   0.7
0.5   0.7
0.5   0.7
0.5   0.7
0.5   0.7
2050
34%
27%
39%

25%
d=0CCgQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.netl.doe.gov%2Ftechnologies%2Fhydrogen_clean_fuels%2Frefshelf%2Fpapers%2Fpgh%2Fhyd
                                Metric tons CO2 per
          Reference             GWh                 Reference
          http://www.eia.doe.g
          ov/oiaf/1605/coeffici
          ents.html                             950 http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/page/co2_report/co2emiss.pdf

                              0.9
            http://www.eia.doe.g
            ov/oiaf/1605/coeffici
            ents.html                        893 http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/page/co2_report/co2emiss.pdf
            http://www.eia.doe.g
            ov/oiaf/1605/coeffici
            ents.html                        599 http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/page/co2_report/co2emiss.pdf




                                 ASSUME NET
                                 ZERO-EMISSION
                               0 BIOFUELS
Implied Ggge/yr

                  3.07
                  1.58

                  1.94




              2005

                  4.36

              12.67

              17.03
1.22
helf%2Fpapers%2Fpgh%2Fhydrogen%2520from%2520steam%2520methane%2520reforming%2520for%2520carbon%2520dioxide%2520




eport/co2emiss.pdf




eport/co2emiss.pdf


eport/co2emiss.pdf
2520carbon%2520dioxide%2520cap.pdf&rct=j&q=co2%20kg%20h2%20methane%20steam%20reforming&ei=fIDmTKnALcqs8Aby06GYDQ
ei=fIDmTKnALcqs8Aby06GYDQ&usg=AFQjCNH6kHviw7nsEGRgzZ-xnKsWnalTDg&sig2=pTtsOQLlnvFCuQ7DXOX2Rg
Carrier portraits

Conventional Fuels Stress        0.00

Carrier to sector distribution           Carrier
                                                        Conventional
(Copied from carrier portraits                          Gaseous fuel        Conventional Liquid
sheet)                                  Electricity     (natural gas)            Fuels
Sector
Residential
- Single-family households               0.00                0.00                   0.00
- Multi-family households          (fractions from     (1 - electricity -   (from sector2carrier
- Average                                0.51                0.49                   0.00
Commercial                               0.75                0.25                   0.00
Industrial                               0.27                0.51                   0.21
Agricultural                             0.89                0.11                   0.00
Other                                    0.90                0.10                   0.00
Light-duty vehicles              Industrial TBtu and         0.00                   0.00
                                 Industrial TBtu and
- Conventional gasoline engine       true shares:            0.00                  0.00
- Gasoline hybrid                        0.30                0.00                  0.00
- Diesel                                 0.00                0.00                  0.00
- Average                                0.00                0.00                  1.00
Heavy-duty vehicles                      0.00                0.00                  1.00
Airplanes                                0.00                0.00                  1.00
Bus                                      0.00                0.00                  1.00
Rail-passenger                           0.00                0.00                  1.00
Rail-freight                             0.00                0.00                  1.00
Marine                                   0.00                0.00                  1.00

Carrier demands
C=DxExF

Electricity

GWh/yr                                    2005


Sector                                    Data         Minimum drivers        Baseline drivers

Residential                                            High efficiency        High efficiency
- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Total                                  84,781             68,139                77,090
Commercial                               96,381            112,421               112,413

Industrial                               53,866            41,232                 88,840
Agricultural                             21,314            17,603                 30,542
Other                                    14,922            26,425                 26,425
Light-duty vehicles

- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                             0                      0                0
Heavy-duty vehicles                 0                      0                0
Airplanes                           0                      0                0
Bus                                 0                      0                0
Rail-passenger                      0                      0                0
Rail-freight                        0                      0                0
Marine                              0                      0                0
Total                            271,264               265,819           335,310
        Transport subtotal          0                    90.97            114.75
                                    0                 <-- TBtu/yr
Conventional gaseous fuel
(natural gas)                        0
Million therms/yr                  2005


Sector                             Data            Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers

Residential                                         High efficiency   High efficiency
- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Total                           5,248                 4,208              4,761
Commercial                        1,837                 2,451              2,451

Industrial                        6,785                 3,826              8,244
Agricultural                       210                   129                224
Other                              151                   175                175
Light-duty vehicles              subtotal:

- Conventional gasoline engine           14231.5

- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                            0                      0                  0
Heavy-duty vehicles                0                      0                  0
Airplanes                          0                      0                  0
Bus                                0                      0                  0
Rail-passenger                     0                      0                  0
Rail-freight                       0                      0                  0
Marine                             0                      0                  0
Total                            14,232                10,789             15,854
        Transport subtotal          0                   36.07              53.00
                                    0                <-- TBtu/yr

Conventional liquid fuels            0
Million gallons gasoline
equivalent/yr                     2005


Sector                            Data             Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers
Residential                                      High efficiency      High efficiency
- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Total                             0                   0                    0
Commercial                          0                   0                    0
Industrial                        2,340                 0                    0
Agricultural                        0                   0                    0
Other                               0                   0                    0
Light-duty vehicles              subtotal:

- Conventional gasoline engine    2339.688042

- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                          14,655                6,233               8,805
Heavy-duty vehicles               4,000                3,548               6,157
Airplanes                         3,800                3,915               6,794
Bus                                625                  937                 937
Rail-passenger                      88                  132                 132
Rail-freight                        33                   51                  88
Marine                            1,801                1,556               2,700
Total                            27,342               16,372              25,612
        Transport subtotal        25,002               63.17               98.81
                                 747,838            <-- TBtu/yr
                                                <-- LDV fraction of
Unconventional liquid fuels      58.61%         transportation fuel
Million gallons gasoline
equivalent/yr                     2005


Sector                            Data          Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers

Residential                                      High efficiency      High efficiency
- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Total                             0                   0                    0
Commercial                          0                   0                    0
Industrial                          0                   0                    0
Agricultural                        0                   0                    0
Other                               0                   0                    0
Light-duty vehicles

- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                             0                   0                    0
Heavy-duty vehicles                 0                   0                    0
Airplanes                           0                   0                    0
Bus                                 0                   0                    0
Rail-passenger                      0                   0                    0
Rail-freight                        0                   0                    0
Marine                            0            0                 0
Total                             0            0                 0
Primary demand (GW-thermal)      0.00         0.00              0.00
                                   0      <-- TBtu/yr
Hydrogen
Million kg H2/yr                 2005


Sector                           Data   Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers

Residential                             High efficiency    High efficiency
- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Total                           0            0                  0
Commercial                        0            0                  0
Industrial                        0            0                  0
Agricultural                      0            0                  0
Other                             0            0                  0
Light-duty vehicles

- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                           0            0                  0
Heavy-duty vehicles               0            0                  0
Airplanes                         0            0                  0
Bus                               0            0                  0
Rail-passenger                    0            0                  0
Rail-freight                      0            0                  0
Marine                            0            0                  0
Total                             0            0                  0
Primary demand (GW-thermal)      0.00         0.00               0.00
                                  0       <-- TBtu/yr
Heat
Trillion Btu/yr                  2005


Sector                           Data   Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers

Residential                              High efficiency   High efficiency
- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Total                           0            0                  0
Commercial                        0            0                  0
Industrial                        0            0                  0
Agricultural                      0            0                  0
Other                             0            0                  0
Light-duty vehicles

- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                          0             0          0
Heavy-duty vehicles              0             0          0
Airplanes                        0             0          0
Bus                              0             0          0
Rail-passenger                   0             0          0
Rail-freight                     0             0          0
Marine                           0             0          0
Total                            0             0          0
Primary demand (GW-thermal)      0             0          0
                                 0        <-- TBtu/yr
TOTAL PRIMARY DEMAND
(GW-thermal)                  25,002.26     190.20      266.57
                               747,838    <-- TBtu/yr
Unconventional
 Liquid fuels          Hydrogen                 Heat


      0.00                0.00                  0.00
      0.00                0.00                  0.00
      0.00                0.00                  0.00
      0.00                0.00                  0.00
      0.00                0.00                  0.00
      0.00                0.00                  0.00
      0.00                0.00                  0.00
      0.00                0.00                  0.00

      0.00                0.00                  0.00
      0.00                0.00                  0.00
      0.00                0.00                  0.00
      0.00                0.00                  0.00
      0.00                0.00                  0.00
      0.00                0.00                  0.00
      0.00                0.00                  0.00
      0.00                0.00                  0.00
      0.00                0.00                  0.00
      0.00                0.00                  0.00




 2050 Portrait


Maximum drivers     Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers        Business-As-Usual

 High efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency


     85,468              91,837               103,901                115,193               136,513
    112,415             119,157               119,149                119,151               162,163

    129,349             46,527                100,249                145,960               111,319
     36,822             17,597                 30,533                 36,812                30,535
     26,425             26,425                 26,425                 26,425                26,426
                                          ag/other portion:                   12.20%       466,956
                                                               subtotal ratio
                                                               (BAU:2005):                   1.721407996
                                                                   TBtu industrial:             380

       0                         0                 0                     0                       0
       0                         0                 0                     0                       0
       0                         0                 0                     0                       0
       0                         0                 0                     0                       0
       0                         0                 0                     0                       0
       0                         0                 0                     0                       0
       0                         0                 0                     0                       0
    390,480                   301,544           380,258               443,541                 466,956
     133.63                    103.19            130.13           Transport subtotal            0.00
                                                                                                 0
                                                                 subtotal ratio
                                                                 (BAU:2005):                     0
              2050 Portrait


Maximum drivers        Minimum drivers      Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers         Business-As-Usual

 High efficiency     Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency


     5,278                     5,850             6,619                  7,338                  8,010
     2,451                     2,797             2,797                  2,797                  3,267

    12,003                     4,716             10,162                 14,796                 15,907
     270                        129               224                    270                    224
     175                        175               175                    175                    175
                                            ag/other portion:                     1.45%        27583

                                                                                                27583.35721
                                                                 subtotal ratio
                                                                 (BAU:2005):                      2
                                                                   TBtu industrial:             1,591
       0                         0                 0                       0                      0
       0                         0                 0                       0                      0
       0                         0                 0                       0                      0
       0                         0                 0                       0                      0
       0                         0                 0                       0                      0
       0                         0                 0                       0                      0
       0                         0                 0                       0                      0
    20,177                    13,668            19,977                 25,376                  27,583
     67.46                     45.70             66.79                  84.84                   92.22
                                                                                                2,758
                                                                 subtotal ratio
                                                                 (BAU:2005):                     0

              2050 Portrait


Maximum drivers       Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers         Business-As-Usual
 High efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency


       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                4,679
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
                                                                                         subtotal:

                                                                                           4679.376083
                                                               subtotal ratio
                                                               (BAU:2005):                    2
                                                                 TBtu industrial:           540
    10,974               16,347                23,092                26,458               25,469
     7,423                3,631                 6,300                 7,575                7,875
     8,191                5,072                 8,800                10,603                6,527
      937                  937                   937                    937                 937
      132                  132                   132                    132                 132
      106                   51                    88                    106                  88
     3,255                1,556                 2,700                 3,255                2,700
    31,018               27,725                42,048                49,066               48,407
    119.67               106.97                162.23           Transport subtotal         43,728
                                                                                         1,307,942
                                                               subtotal ratio
                                                               (BAU:2005):             1.748963569

 2050 Portrait


Maximum drivers     Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers      Business-As-Usual

 High efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency


       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0




       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
      0.00                0.00                  0.00                  0.00                 0.00


 2050 Portrait


Maximum drivers     Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers      Business-As-Usual

 High efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency


       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0




       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
      0.00                0.00                  0.00                  0.00                 0.00


  2050 Portrait


Maximum drivers     Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers      Business-As-Usual

 High efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency


       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
  0        0        0        0        0
  0        0        0        0        0
  0        0        0        0        0
  0        0        0        0        0
  0        0        0        0        0
  0        0        0        0        0
  0        0        0        0        0
  0        0        0        0        0
  0        0        0        0        0


320.75   255.86   359.15   #VALUE!   #REF!
                                     #REF!
Building efficiency            40%

Industrial efficiency           2%                                                  2050 Portrait

                                                 Extreme energy        Minimum (extreme Maximum (Business
                        Business-As-Usual            efficiency            efficiency)      As Usual)
                                               Buildings/industrial
                        With ML efficiencies   efficiency reduction:
                                                        90%

                              81,908                 13,651                13,651                   136,513
                              97,298                 16,216                16,216                   162,163

                             108,707                  11,132               11,132                   111,319
                              18,321                   3,054                3,054                    30,535
                              15,856                   2,643                2,643                    26,426
                             322,089            <--sum of above
                                                  Transportation
                                               efficiency reduction:
                                                    90%

                                                     0                      0                       0
                                                     0                      0                       0
                                                     0                      0                       0
                                                     0                      0                       0
                                                     0                      0                       0
                                                     0                      0                       0
                                                     0                      0                       0
                          322,089                 46,696                 46,696                  466,956
                                                   15.98                 #REF!                    #REF!
Efficiency target:          40%                                        <-- TBtu/yr
 Industrial fuel
    reduction:              63%
                                                                                 2050 Portrait

                                              Extreme energy        Minimum (extreme Maximum (Business
                     Business-As-Usual            efficiency            efficiency)      As Usual)
                                            Buildings/industrial
                     With ML efficiencies   efficiency reduction:
                                                     90%

                            4,806                   801                   801                     8,010
                            1,960                   327                   327                     3,267

                           5,921                   1,591                 1,591                   15,907
                            134                     22                    22                      224
                            105                     17                    17                      175
                           12926
                                               Transportation
                                            efficiency reduction:

                                                    0.9

                                                     0                      0                      0
                                                     0                      0                      0
                                                     0                      0                      0
                                                     0                      0                      0
                                                     0                      0                      0
                                                     0                      0                      0
                                                     0                      0                      0
                           12,926                  2,758                  2,758                  27,583
                                                    9.22                 #REF!                   #REF!
Efficiency target:          40%                                        <-- TBtu/yr
 Industrial fuel
    reduction:              47%

                                                                                 2050 Portrait

                                              Extreme energy        Minimum (extreme Maximum (Business
                     Business-As-Usual           efficiency             efficiency)      As Usual)
                                       Buildings/industrial
                With ML efficiencies   efficiency reduction:
                                                0.9

                        0                       0                     0                0
                        0                       0                     0                0
                      2,487                    468                   468             4,679
                        0                       0                     0                0
                        0                       0                     0                0
                     subtotal:
                                      Transportation
                       2486.982424 efficiency reduction:
  Efficiency
improvements:                                  0.9

    60%               10,188                  2,547                  2,547          25,469
    31%                5,434                   788                    788            7,875
    53%                3,068                   653                    653            6,527
     0%                 937                     94                     94             937
     0%                 132                     13                     13             132
     0%                  88                      9                      9              88
    40%                1,620                   270                    270            2,700
                      23,953                  4,841                  4,841          48,407
                      21,466                  18.68                 #REF!           #REF!
                                                                  <-- TBtu/yr



                                                                 2050 Portrait
                                                                                    Maximum
                                         Extreme energy        Minimum (extreme   (Business As
                                             efficiency            efficiency)       Usual)
                                       Buildings/industrial
                                       efficiency reduction:
                                                 0.9

                                                0                     0                0
                                                0                     0                0
                                                0                     0                0
                                                0                     0                0
                                                0                     0                0

                                          Transportation
                                       efficiency reduction:
                                                0.9

                                                0                     0                0
                                                0                     0                0
                                                0                     0                0
                                                0                     0                0
                                                0                     0                0
                                                0                     0                0
         0                     0                0
         0                     0                0
        0.00                 #REF!            #REF!


                          2050 Portrait
                                             Maximum
  Extreme energy        Minimum (extreme   (Business As
      efficiency            efficiency)       Usual)
Buildings/industrial
efficiency reduction:
          0.9

         0                     0                0
         0                     0                0
         0                     0                0
         0                     0                0
         0                     0                0

   Transportation
efficiency reduction:
         0.9

         0                     0                0
         0                     0                0
         0                     0                0
         0                     0                0
         0                     0                0
         0                     0                0
         0                     0                0
         0                     0                0
        0.00                 #REF!            #REF!


                          2050 Portrait
                                             Maximum
  Extreme energy        Minimum (extreme   (Business As
      efficiency            efficiency)       Usual)
Buildings/industrial
efficiency reduction:
          0.9

         0                     0                0
         0                     0                0
         0                     0                0
         0                     0                0
         0                     0                0

   Transportation
efficiency reduction:
         0.9
 0          0           0
 0          0           0
 0          0           0
 0          0           0
 0          0           0
 0          0           0
 0          0           0
 0          0           0
 0        #REF!       #REF!


#REF!     #REF!       #REF!
        <-- TBtu/yr
                                          Sector2carrier sheet   Check:

                                                                 2050 BAU/2005
     CHECK:           Baseline drivers                           ratio

                     Moderate efficiency Moderate efficiency


per household-yr                   5712                  5712             1.610178302
per ft2-yr                        11.74                 11.74             1.682523719

per $1000 shipment                52.38                 52.38             2.066589435
per $1000 GSP                      6.12                  6.12             1.432644983
per capita-yr                    482.38                482.38             1.770933655
       466956.0188




                                                                 1.721407996



                                          Sector2carrier sheet
     CHECK:           Baseline drivers


                     Moderate efficiency Moderate efficiency




per household-yr                 363.88                363.88    1.526313626
per ft2-yr                         0.28                  0.28    1.778541838

per $1000 shipment                 5.31                  5.31    2.344481094
per $1000 GSP                      0.04                  0.04    1.064541157
per capita-yr                      3.19                  3.19    1.156777211




                                                                 1.938190437
1.737918449
     1.96875
1.717740764
 1.49876881
 1.49876881

 1.49876881
1.770445101
Carrier portraits

Efficiency + Electrification     (EE)

Carrier to sector distribution           Carrier
                                                       Conventional
(Copied from carrier portraits                         Gaseous fuel    Conventional Liquid
sheet)                                  Electricity    (natural gas)        Fuels
Sector
Residential

                                   Fraction of full
- Single-family households         electrification:        0.00               0.00
- Multi-family households               0.70               0.00               0.00
- Average                               0.85               0.15               0.00
Commercial                              0.93               0.07               0.00




Industrial                                0.27             0.51               0.21

Agricultural                              0.97             0.03               0.00
Other                                     0.97             0.03               0.00

                                 Industrial TBtu and
Light-duty vehicles                 true shares:
- Conventional gasoline engine         370.91            592.07              287.00
- Gasoline hybrid                        0.30             0.47                0.23


- Diesel                                  0.00             0.00           (remainder)

- Average                                 0.44             0.00               0.56
Heavy-duty vehicles                       0.18             0.00               0.82
Airplanes                                 0.00             0.00               1.00

Bus                                       1.00             0.00               0.00
Rail-passenger                            1.00             0.00               0.00

Rail-freight                              1.00             0.00               0.00
Marine                                    0.00             0.00               1.00

Carrier demands
C=DxExF


Electricity

GWh/yr                                    2005
Sector                            Data     Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers


Residential                                High efficiency    High efficiency
- Single-family households


- Multi-family households
- Total                          140,914      113,253            128,131
Commercial                       118,292      137,978            137,969

Industrial                       53,866        41,232             88,840
Agricultural                     23,077        19,059             33,069
Other                            16,036        28,398             28,398
Light-duty vehicles               184

- Conventional gasoline engine



- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                           36,762       37,681             53,229
Heavy-duty vehicles                9,806       11,164             19,371
Airplanes                            0            0                  0
Bus                                3,099        4,645              4,645
Rail-passenger                      967         1,449              1,449
Rail-freight                        382          587               1,019
Marine                               0            0                  0
Total                            403,202      395,448            496,120
Primary demand (GW-thermal)       137.98       135.33             169.78
                                   4,127     <-- TBtu/yr
Conventional gaseous fuel
(natural gas)
Million therms/yr                 2005

Sector                            Data     Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers
Residential                                 High efficiency   High efficiency
- Single-family households


- Multi-family households
- Total                           1,574         1,262              1,428
Commercial                         551           735                735

Industrial                        6,785         3,826              8,244
Agricultural                        63           39                 67
Other                               45           52                 52
Light-duty vehicles                679

- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                            0             0                 0
Heavy-duty vehicles                0             0                 0
Airplanes                          0             0                 0
Bus                                0             0                 0
Rail-passenger                     0             0                 0
Rail-freight                       0             0                 0
Marine                             0             0                 0
Total                            9,019         5,915            10,527
Primary demand (GW-thermal)      30.15         19.78             35.19
                                  902       <-- TBtu/yr
Conventional liquid fuels
Million gallons gasoline
equivalent/yr                    2005

Sector                           Data     Minimum drivers   Baseline drivers

Residential                               High efficiency   High efficiency
- Single-family households


- Multi-family households
- Total                            0            0                  0
Commercial                         0            0                  0
Industrial                       2,340          0                  0
Agricultural                       0            0                  0
Other                              0            0                  0
Light-duty vehicles               270

- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid

- Diesel
- Total                           8,207        3,490             4,931
Heavy-duty vehicles               3,280        2,910             5,049
Airplanes                         3,800        3,915             6,794
Bus                                 0            0                 0
Rail-passenger                      0            0                 0
Rail-freight                        0            0                 0
Marine                            1,801        1,556             2,700
Total                            19,428       11,871            19,472
Primary demand (GW-thermal)       74.95        45.80             75.13
                                  2,242     <-- TBtu/yr

Unconventional liquid fuels
Million gallons gasoline
equivalent/yr                    2005

Sector                           Data     Minimum drivers   Baseline drivers

Residential                               High efficiency   High efficiency
- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Total                             0            0                 0
Commercial                          0            0                 0
Industrial                       #VALUE!      #VALUE!           #VALUE!
Agricultural                        0            0                 0
Other                               0            0                 0
Light-duty vehicles
- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                             0             0                0
Heavy-duty vehicles                 0             0                0
Airplanes                           0             0                0
Bus                                 0             0                0
Rail-passenger                      0             0                0
Rail-freight                        0             0                0
Marine                              0             0                0
Total                            #VALUE!      #VALUE!           #VALUE!
Primary demand (GW-thermal)      #VALUE!      #VALUE!           #VALUE!
                                 #VALUE!     <-- TBtu/yr
Hydrogen
Million kg H2/yr                  2005

Sector                            Data     Minimum drivers   Baseline drivers

Residential                                High efficiency   High efficiency
- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Total                             0            0                  0
Commercial                          0            0                  0
Industrial                          0            0                  0
Agricultural                        0            0                  0
Other                               0            0                  0
Light-duty vehicles

- Conventional gasoline engine



- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                             0            0                  0
Heavy-duty vehicles                 0            0                  0
Airplanes                           0            0                  0
Bus                                 0            0                  0
Rail-passenger                      0            0                  0
Rail-freight                        0            0                  0
Marine                              0            0                  0

Total                              0             0                  0
Primary demand (GW-thermal)       0.00          0.00               0.00
                                    0        <-- TBtu/yr

Heat
Trillion Btu/yr                   2005

Sector                            Data     Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers
Residential                                 High efficiency   High efficiency
- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Total                            0              0                  0
Commercial                         0              0                  0
Industrial                         0              0                  0
Agricultural                       0              0                  0
Other                              0              0                  0
Light-duty vehicles
- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                            0              0                  0
Heavy-duty vehicles                0              0                  0
Airplanes                          0              0                  0
Bus                                0              0                  0
Rail-passenger                     0              0                  0
Rail-freight                       0              0                  0
Marine                             0              0                  0
Total                              0              0                  0
Primary demand (GW-thermal)        0              0                  0
                                   0         <-- TBtu/yr
TOTAL PRIMARY DEMAND
(GW-thermal)                     #VALUE!      #VALUE!            #VALUE!
                                 #VALUE!     <-- TBtu/yr
  Unconventional
   Liquid fuels           Hydrogen   Heat




          0.00              0.00     0.00   2050 industrial      Electricity
          0.00              0.00     0.00   Native units:        111,319
          0.00              0.00     0.00   TBtu/yr                 380
          0.00              0.00     0.00      Share of total:      5%
  Handle crudely --
     just assume
   unchanged and
 make adjustments
to electricity, NG, oil
   use elsewhere            0.00     0.00

        0.00                0.00     0.00
        0.00                0.00     0.00


                            0.00     0.00
        0.00                0.00     0.00
        0.00                0.00     0.00


        0.00                0.00     0.00

        0.00                0.00     0.00
        0.00                0.00     0.00
        0.00                0.00     0.00

        0.00                0.00     0.00
        0.00                0.00     0.00

        0.00                0.00     0.00
        0.00                0.00     0.00




    2050 Portrait
                                                                                       Business As Usual
Maximum drivers       Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers           drivers

                                                                                       Business As Usual
 High efficiency     Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency       efficiency




    142,056                   152,642           172,693                191,461             226,896
    137,972                   146,246           146,236                146,239             199,029

    129,349                   46,527            100,249                145,960             111,319
     39,869                   19,053             33,059                 39,857              33,062
     28,398                   28,399             28,399                 28,399              28,399
                                                                                           598,705
                                                                 subtotal ratio
                                                                 (BAU:2005):                1.699971613




     66,345                    51,752            73,105                 83,760              73,105
     23,354                    11,127            19,306                 23,214               8,717
        0                         0                 0                      0                   0
      4,645                     4,645             4,645                  4,645               4,645
      1,449                     1,449             1,449                  1,449               1,449
      1,229                      587              1,019                  1,229               1,019
        0                         0                 0                      0                   0
    574,666                   462,428           580,162                666,214             687,641
     196.66                    158.25            198.54                 227.99              235.32
                                                                                             7,039
                                                                 subtotal ratio
                                                                 (BAU:2005):             1.743267807
              2050 Portrait

Maximum drivers       Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers Business-As-Usual
 High efficiency     Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency




     1,583                     1,755             1,986                  2,202               2,403
      735                       839               839                    839                 980

    12,003                     4,716            10,162                  14,796              15,907
      81                        39                67                      81                  67
      52                        52                52                      52                  52
                                                                                             1,591
                                                                 subtotal ratio
                                                                 (BAU:2005):                2.152148545
       0                       0                   0                      0                   0
       0                       0                   0                      0                   0
       0                       0                   0                      0                   0
       0                       0                   0                      0                   0
       0                       0                   0                      0                   0
       0                       0                   0                      0                   0
       0                       0                   0                      0                   0
    14,455                   7,402              13,106                 17,970              19,410
     48.33                   24.75               43.82                  60.08               64.89
                                                                                            1,941


             2050 Portrait

Maximum drivers      Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers      Business-As-Usual

 High efficiency    Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency




       0                       0                  0                       0                  0
       0                       0                  0                       0                  0
       0                       0                  0                       0                4,679
       0                       0                  0                       0                  0
       0                       0                  0                       0                  0
                                                                                            540
                                                                subtotal ratio
                                                                (BAU:2005):                           2



     6,146                    9,154             12,932                 14,816              14,263
     6,087                    2,977              5,166                  6,212               6,458
     8,191                    5,072              8,800                 10,603               6,527
       0                        0                  0                      0                   0
       0                        0                  0                      0                   0
       0                        0                  0                      0                   0
     3,255                    1,556              2,700                  3,255               2,700
    23,678                   18,759             29,597                 34,886              34,627
     91.35                    72.38             114.19                 134.59              133.59
                                                                                            3,996
                                                                subtotal ratio
                                                                (BAU:2005):             1.752531044

 2050 Portrait

Maximum drivers      Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers      Business-As-Usual

 High efficiency    Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency
      0                    0                     0                     0                    0
      0                    0                     0                     0                    0
   #VALUE!              #VALUE!               #VALUE!               #VALUE!              #VALUE!
      0                    0                     0                     0                    0
      0                    0                     0                     0                    0




      0                    0                     0                     0                    0
      0                    0                     0                     0                    0
      0                    0                     0                     0                    0
      0                    0                     0                     0                    0
      0                    0                     0                     0                    0
      0                    0                     0                     0                    0
      0                    0                     0                     0                    0
   #VALUE!              #VALUE!               #VALUE!               #VALUE!              #VALUE!
   #VALUE!              #VALUE!               #VALUE!               #VALUE!              #VALUE!


 2050 Portrait

Maximum drivers     Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers      Business-As-Usual

 High efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency


       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0

                                                               subtotal ratio
                                                               (BAU:2005):                #DIV/0!




       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0

       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
      0.00                0.00                  0.00                   0.00                0.00
                                                               subtotal ratio
                                                               (BAU:2005):           #DIV/0!
  2050 Portrait

Maximum drivers     Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers Business-As-Usual
 High efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency


       0                   0                     0                       0              0
       0                   0                     0                       0              0
       0                   0                     0                       0              0
       0                   0                     0                       0              0
       0                   0                     0                       0              0




       0                   0                     0                       0              0
       0                   0                     0                       0              0
       0                   0                     0                       0              0
       0                   0                     0                       0              0
       0                   0                     0                       0              0
       0                   0                     0                       0              0
       0                   0                     0                       0              0
       0                   0                     0                       0              0
       0                   0                     0                       0              0


   #VALUE!             #VALUE!               #VALUE!                 #VALUE!         #VALUE!
                                                                                     #VALUE!
Conventional
Gaseous fuel    Conventional Liquid
(natural gas)        Fuels                 Total
   15,907            4,679
    1,591             540                  2,511         4,641       7,152
    22%                8%




                    Industrial
                    efficiency
                (Max Wei estimates
                      7-5-10)            Electricity   Natural gas    Oil
                    Efficiency             37%            28%        29%

                     Oil industry
                      downsize              23%           58%        47%
                    Electrification        -28%           12%        13%
                       Subtotal             38%           73%        67%
                    Autonomous
                      efficiency
                improvement (BAU)          36%            28%        38%
                Efficiency relative to
                         BAU                1%             0%        -16%
                       Subtotal             2%            63%         47%
                       Behavior            30%            30%         30%

                Subtotal w/ behavior       32%            74%        63%


                  (Electrification)        -0.59          0.36       0.18




                 Heating efficiency
                     reduction:            30%
                 Building efficiency
                     reduction:            40%
 Baseline drivers                            Realistic case
                    Industrial efficiency
Business As Usual   reduction (negative
    efficiency         is increase):              2%

                                                              Change from BAU
                                                              reference (at same       Change due to
                     (Heating portion)          Total         electrification level)    electrification
    226,896              90,384                145,176                -40%                  77%
    199,029              36,866                123,104                -40%                  27%

    111,319                23,780              108,707               -24%                   28%
     33,062                 2,526               20,090               -40%                   10%
     28,399                 1,974               17,237               -40%                    9%
    598,705               155,529              414,313               -40%                    9%

                                                              ^^Ag+other

                          Additional
                        transportation
                    efficiency reduction:
  Base demand             (not used)        Modified demand
     73,105                  0%                  73,105               0%                  #DIV/0!
      8,717                  0%                   8,717               0%                  #DIV/0!
        0                                           0               #DIV/0!               #DIV/0!
      4,645                 0%                    4,645               0%                  #DIV/0!
      1,449                 0%                    1,449               0%                  #DIV/0!
      1,019                 0%                    1,019               0%                  #DIV/0!
        0                                           0               #DIV/0!               #DIV/0!
    687,641                                    503,249               -36%                  69%
                    Transport subtotal           88,936
                                             88936.01634



Business As Usual
    efficiency                               Realistic case

                     Efficiency target:          40%
                                                              Change from BAU
                       Industrial fuel                        reference (at same       Change due to
                         reduction:               63%         electrification level)    electrification
      2,403                                      1,442                -40%                  -70%
       980                                        588                 -40%                  -70%

     15,907                                      5,921               -58%                  -12%
       67                                         40                 -40%                  -70%
       52                                         31                 -40%                  -70%
      1,591                                      8,022               -40%                  -70%

                                                              ^^Ag+other
       0                                        0                #DIV/0!               #DIV/0!
       0                                        0                #DIV/0!               #DIV/0!
       0                                        0                #DIV/0!               #DIV/0!
       0                                        0                #DIV/0!               #DIV/0!
       0                                        0                #DIV/0!               #DIV/0!
       0                                        0                #DIV/0!               #DIV/0!
       0                                        0                #DIV/0!               #DIV/0!
     19,410                                   8,022               34%                   -78%
                                              26.82




Business As Usual
    efficiency                            Realistic case


                    Efficiency target:        40%
                                                           Change from BAU
                      Industrial fuel                      reference (at same       Change due to
                        reduction:             47%         electrification level)    electrification
        0                                       0                #DIV/0!                #DIV/0!
        0                                       0                #DIV/0!                #DIV/0!
      4,679                                   2,487                -39%                  -13%
        0                                       0                #DIV/0!                #DIV/0!
        0                                       0                #DIV/0!                #DIV/0!
       540                                     287                 -40%                 #DIV/0!

                                                           ^^Ag+other

                       Efficiency
  Base demand        improvements:       Modified demand
     14,263              60%                   5,705              -60%                  -44%
      6,458              31%                   4,456              -31%                  -18%
      6,527              53%                   3,068              -53%                   0%
        0                                        0               #DIV/0!               #DIV/0!
        0                                        0               #DIV/0!               #DIV/0!
        0                                        0               #DIV/0!               #DIV/0!
      2,700               40%                  1,620              -40%                   0%
     34,627                                   17,335              -45%                  -35%
                    Transport subtotal        14,848              -50%                  -32%
   Efficiencies:          LDV                  58.25             mpgge

                          HDV                 8.70                mpgge

                           Air               115.06            seat-mpgge

                                          Realistic case
                              0
                              0
                           #VALUE!
                              0
                              0




                              0
                              0
                              0
                              0
                              0
                              0
                              0
                           #VALUE!
                           #VALUE!




                         Realistic case

                        Efficiency target:


                                0
                                0
                                0
                                0
                                0




      Additional
    transportation
efficiency reduction:

        0%                      0
        0%                      0
                                0
        0%                      0
        0%                      0
        0%                      0
                                0
Average transport
reduction:                     0
      #DIV/0!                 0.00
Realistic case



      0
      0
      0
      0
      0




      0
      0
      0
      0
      0
      0
      0
      0
      0


  #VALUE!
                    Reductions by
      Notes         industry             Electricity   Oil/gas refining     Manufacturing
                    EE                      0.37             0.25               0.33
Downsize is split
among NG and oil    Oil refining
use (see right)     downsize                0.23             0.9                    0
                    Electrification        -0.28            0.09                   0.17



                    TBtu/yr              Electricity     Natural gas           Oil + Coal

                    Oil/gas refining         41              423                   142
                    Manufacturing           123              236                   128
                    Total                   164              659                   270

                    Reductions by fuel
                    EE                      0.37            28%                    29%
                    Oil refining
                    downsize                0.23            58%                    47%
                    Electrification        -0.28            12%                    13%




                                                                   2050 Portrait
                                     Realistic w/ behavior                        Medium efficiency
                                             case          High efficiency case        case




Net change from
      BAU         Behavior factor:
      6%                 -10%              130,658              130,658               145,176
     -24%                -10%              110,794              110,794               123,104

     -2%                 -10%               97,836               97,836               108,707
    -34%                 -10%               18,081               18,081                20,090
    -35%                  0%                17,237               17,237                17,237
    -34%                                   374,606




                  Behavior factor:

    #DIV/0!              -10%               65,795               65,795                73,105
    #DIV/0!              -10%                7,845                7,845                 8,717
    #DIV/0!              -10%                  0                    0                     0
    #DIV/0!              200%               13,936               13,936                 4,645
    #DIV/0!              200%                4,348                4,348                 1,449
    #DIV/0!              -10%                 917                  917                  1,019
    #DIV/0!              -10%                  0                    0                     0
      8%                                   467,447              467,447               503,249
                                            159.97               #REF!                 #REF!
                                                               <-- TBtu/yr


                                                                          2050 Portrait
                                     Realistic w/ behavior                       Medium efficiency
                                             case          High efficiency case         case
                  Behavior factor:
                          0%

Net change from
      BAU
     -82%                -10%               1,298                1,298                 1,442
     -82%                -10%                529                  529                   588

    -63%                 -10%               5,329                5,329                 5,921
    -82%                 -10%                36                   36                    40
    -82%                  0%                 31                   31                    31
    -82%                                    7,223
    #DIV/0!          -10%                0                     0                    0
    #DIV/0!          -10%                0                     0                    0
    #DIV/0!          -10%                0                     0                    0
    #DIV/0!          200%                0                     0                    0
    #DIV/0!          200%                0                     0                    0
    #DIV/0!          -10%                0                     0                    0
    #DIV/0!          -10%                0                     0                    0
     -71%                              7,223                 7,223                8,022
                                       24.15                #REF!                 #REF!
                                                          <-- TBtu/yr


                                                                    2050 Portrait
                                Realistic w/ behavior                      Medium efficiency
                                        case          High efficiency case        case




Net change from
      BAU
    #DIV/0!          -10%                0                    0                     0
    #DIV/0!          -10%                0                    0                     0
     -47%            -10%              2,238                2,238                 2,487
    #DIV/0!          -10%                0                    0                     0
    #DIV/0!           0%                 0                    0                     0
    #DIV/0!                            2,238




                  Base demand
     -78%            -10%              5,135                 5,135                 5,705
     -43%            -10%              4,010                 4,010                 4,456
     -53%            -10%              2,761                 2,761                 3,068
    -100%            200%                0                     0                     0
    -100%            200%                0                     0                     0
    -100%            -10%                0                     0                     0
     -40%            -10%              1,458                 1,458                 1,620
     -64%              3              15,602                15,602                17,335
     -66%                              60.19                #REF!                 #REF!
                                                          <-- TBtu/yr



                                                         2050 Portrait
                                Realistic w/ behavior                        Medium efficiency
                                        case          High efficiency case        case
       -10%                 0                     0                    0
       -10%                 0                     0                    0
       -10%              #VALUE!               #VALUE!              #VALUE!
       -10%                 0                     0                    0
        0%                  0                     0                    0
                         #VALUE!



       -10%                  0                    0                    0
       -10%                  0                    0                    0
       -10%                  0                    0                    0
       200%                  0                    0                    0
       200%                  0                    0                    0
       -10%                  0                    0                    0
       -10%                  0                    0                    0
                                                  0                 #VALUE!
                                                #REF!                #REF!


                                             2050 Portrait
                    Realistic w/ behavior                        Medium efficiency
                            case          High efficiency case        case

                     Efficiency target:


       -10%                  0                     0                    0
       -10%                  0                     0                    0
       -10%                  0                     0                    0
       -10%                  0                     0                    0
        0%                   0                     0                    0
                             0




        -10%                 0                     0                    0
        -10%                 0                     0                    0
        -10%                 0                     0                    0
        200%                 0                     0                    0
        200%                 0                     0                    0
        -10%                 0                     0                    0
        -10%                 0                     0                    0
Average transport
reduction:                   0                    0                     0
      #DIV/0!               0.00                #REF!                 #REF!
                         2050 Portrait
Realistic w/ behavior                        Medium efficiency
        case          High efficiency case        case



                               0                    0
                               0                    0
                               0                    0
                               0                    0
                               0                    0




                              0                     0
                              0                     0
                              0                     0
                              0                     0
                              0                     0
                              0                     0
                              0                     0
                              0                     0
                            #REF!                 #REF!


                            #REF!                 #REF!
                          <-- TBtu/yr
(Coal portion)

      5
     48
     53




                 Sector2carrier sheet   Check:
                                                                 2050 BAU/2005
     CHECK:           Baseline drivers                           ratio


                     Moderate efficiency Moderate efficiency




per household-yr           9493.856177                   5712          1.610178302
per ft2-yr                        14.41                 11.74          1.682523719

per $1000 shipment                52.38                 52.38          2.066589435
per $1000 GSP                      6.63                  6.12          1.432644983
per capita-yr                    518.41                482.38          1.770933655




       414313.3696




                                                                       1.705449844



                                          Sector2carrier sheet
     CHECK:           Baseline drivers

                     Moderate efficiency Moderate efficiency




per household-yr                 109.16                363.88          1.526313626
per ft2-yr                         0.08                  0.28          1.778541838

per $1000 shipment                 5.31                  5.31          2.344481094
per $1000 GSP                      0.01                  0.04          1.064541157
per capita-yr                      0.96                  3.19          1.156777211
2.152148545




 1.737918449
      1.96875
 1.717740764
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

 1.49876881
1.782333902
Carrier portraits

Base Case (EE)                   0.00

Carrier to sector distribution           Carrier
                                                         Conventional
(Copied from carrier portraits                           Gaseous fuel     Conventional Liquid
sheet)                                  Electricity      (natural gas)         Fuels
Sector
Residential
- Single-family households                0.00               0.00                0.00
- Multi-family households            (same as ML             0.00                0.00
- Average                                 0.85               0.15                0.00
Commercial                                0.93               0.07                0.00
Industrial                                0.27               0.30                0.21
Agricultural                              0.97               0.03                0.00
Other                                     0.97               0.03                0.00
Light-duty vehicles               Industrial TBtu and        0.00                0.00
- Conventional gasoline engine          370.91              345.19              287.00
- Gasoline hybrid                         0.27               0.25                0.21
- Diesel                         (some modifications         0.00                0.00
- Average                                 0.22               0.00                0.22
Heavy-duty vehicles                       0.09               0.00                0.82
Airplanes                                 0.00               0.00                1.00
Bus                                       0.00               0.00                0.00
Rail-passenger                            1.00               0.00                0.00
Rail-freight                              1.00               0.00                0.00
Marine                                    0.00               0.00                1.00

Carrier demands
C=DxExF


Electricity

GWh/yr                                    2005

Sector                                    Data          Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers

Residential                                             High efficiency     High efficiency
- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Total                                 140,914            113,253             128,131
Commercial                              118,292            137,978             137,969

Industrial                               53,866             41,232              88,840
Agricultural                             23,077             19,059              33,069
Other                                    16,036             28,398              28,398
Light-duty vehicles

- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                          18,381        18,841             26,614
Heavy-duty vehicles               4,903         5,582              9,685
Airplanes                           0             0                  0
Bus                                 0             0                  0
Rail-passenger                     967          1,449              1,449
Rail-freight                       382           587               1,019
Marine                              0             0                  0

Total                            376,819       366,380           455,175
Primary demand (GW-thermal)       128.95        125.38            155.77
                                   3,857      <-- TBtu/yr
Conventional gaseous fuel
(natural gas)
Million therms/yr                 2005

Sector                            Data     Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers

Residential                                 High efficiency   High efficiency
- Single-family households

- Multi-family households
- Total                           1,574         1,262              1,428
Commercial                         551           735                735

Industrial                        3,956         2,231              4,806
Agricultural                       63            39                 67
Other                              45            52                 52
Light-duty vehicles

- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                             0             0                  0
Heavy-duty vehicles                 0             0                  0
Airplanes                           0             0                  0
Bus                                 0             0                  0
Rail-passenger                      0             0                  0
Rail-freight                        0             0                  0
Marine                              0             0                  0
Total                             6,190         4,320              7,089
Primary demand (GW-thermal)       20.69         14.44              23.70
                                   619       <-- TBtu/yr
Conventional liquid fuels
Million gallons gasoline
equivalent/yr                     2005

Sector                            Data     Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers
Residential                               High efficiency   High efficiency
- Single-family households

- Multi-family households
- Total                            0            0                  0
Commercial                         0            0                  0
Industrial                       2,340          0                  0
Agricultural                       0            0                  0
Other                              0            0                  0
Light-duty vehicles

- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid

- Diesel
- Total                          3,224        1,371              1,937




Heavy-duty vehicles               3,280        2,910             5,049
Airplanes                         3,800        3,915             6,794
Bus                                 0            0                 0
Rail-passenger                      0            0                 0
Rail-freight                        0            0                 0
Marine                            1,801        1,556             2,700
Total                            14,445        9,752            16,479
Primary demand (GW-thermal)       55.73        37.63             63.58
                                  1,667     <-- TBtu/yr

Unconventional liquid fuels
Million gallons gasoline
equivalent/yr                    2005

Sector                           Data     Minimum drivers   Baseline drivers

Residential                               High efficiency   High efficiency
- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Total                            0            0                  0
Commercial                         0            0                  0
Industrial                         0            0                  0
Agricultural                       0            0                  0
Other                              0            0                  0
Light-duty vehicles
- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                            0            0                  0
Heavy-duty vehicles               0             0                 0
Airplanes                         0             0                 0
Bus                               0             0                 0
Rail-passenger                    0             0                 0
Rail-freight                      0             0                 0
Marine                            0             0                 0
Total                             0             0                 0
Primary demand (GW-thermal)      0.00          0.00              0.00
                                   0       <-- TBtu/yr
Hydrogen
Million kg H2/yr                 2005

Sector                           Data    Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers

Residential                              High efficiency    High efficiency
- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Total                            0            0                  0
Commercial                         0            0                  0
Industrial                       3,905        1,123              2,419
Agricultural                       0            0                  0
Other                              0            0                  0
Light-duty vehicles

- Conventional gasoline engine



- Gasoline hybrid

- Diesel
- Total                          2,128        2,181              3,081
Heavy-duty vehicles               223          254                440
Airplanes                          0            0                  0
Bus                               141          211                211
Rail-passenger                     0            0                  0
Rail-freight                       0            0                  0
Marine                             0            0                  0

Total                            6,397        3,769              6,152
Primary demand (GW-thermal)      24.31        14.32              23.38
                                  727      <-- TBtu/yr

Heat
Trillion Btu/yr                  2005

Sector                           Data    Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers
Residential                               High efficiency   High efficiency
- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Total                           0             0                  0
Commercial                        0             0                  0
Industrial                         0          0           0
Agricultural                       0          0           0
Other                              0          0           0
Light-duty vehicles
- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                            0           0          0
Heavy-duty vehicles                0           0          0
Airplanes                          0           0          0
Bus                                0           0          0
Rail-passenger                     0           0          0
Rail-freight                       0           0          0
Marine                             0           0          0
Total                              0           0          0
Primary demand (GW-thermal)        0           0          0
                                   0      <-- TBtu/yr
TOTAL PRIMARY DEMAND
(GW-thermal)                     229.69     191.77      266.43
                                  6,870   <-- TBtu/yr
Unconventional
 Liquid fuels          Hydrogen                 Heat


      0.00               0.00                   0.00
      0.00               0.00                   0.00
      0.00               0.00                   0.00
      0.00               0.00                   0.00
      0.00               0.21                   0.00
      0.00               0.00                   0.00
      0.00               0.00                   0.00
      0.00               0.00                   0.00
      0.00              359.46                  0.00
      0.00               0.26                   0.00
      0.00               0.00                   0.00
      0.00               0.56                   0.00
      0.00               0.09                   0.00
      0.00               0.00                   0.00
      0.00               1.00                   0.00
      0.00               0.00                   0.00
      0.00               0.00                   0.00
      0.00               0.00                   0.00




 2050 Portrait
                                                                                   Business As Usual
Maximum drivers     Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers         drivers
                                                                                   Business As Usual
 High efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency     efficiency


    142,056             152,642               172,693                191,461           226,896
    137,972             146,246               146,236                146,239           199,029

    129,349             46,527                100,249                145,960           111,319
     39,869             19,053                 33,059                 39,857            33,062
     28,398             28,399                 28,399                 28,399            28,399

                                                               subtotal ratio
                                                               (BAU:2005):              1.699971613
    33,173                    25,876            36,553                  41,880              36,553
    11,677                     5,564             9,653                  11,607               4,358
       0                         0                 0                       0                   0
       0                         0                 0                       0                   0
     1,449                     1,449             1,449                   1,449               1,449
     1,229                      587              1,019                   1,229               1,019
       0                         0                 0                       0                   0

    525,171                   426,343           529,311                608,081             642,085
     179.72                    145.90            181.14                 208.10              219.73
                                                                                             6,572
                                                                 subtotal ratio
                                                                 (BAU:2005):             1.761012876
              2050 Portrait

Maximum drivers        Minimum drivers      Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers      Business-As-Usual

 High efficiency     Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency



     1,583                     1,755             1,986                  2,202               2,403
      735                       839               839                    839                 980

     6,998                     2,750             5,925                  8,626               9,274
      81                        39                67                     81                  67
      52                        52                52                     52                  52

                                                                 subtotal ratio
                                                                 (BAU:2005):                 2.064237953


       0                         0                 0                       0                   0
       0                         0                 0                       0                   0
       0                         0                 0                       0                   0
       0                         0                 0                       0                   0
       0                         0                 0                       0                   0
       0                         0                 0                       0                   0
       0                         0                 0                       0                   0
     9,450                     5,435             8,869                  11,800              12,777
     31.59                     18.17             29.65                   39.45               42.72
                                                                                             1,278


              2050 Portrait

Maximum drivers       Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers      Business-As-Usual
 High efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency



       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                4,679
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0

                                                               subtotal ratio
                                                               (BAU:2005):                           2



     2,414               3,596                 5,080                  5,821               5,603




     6,087                2,977                 5,166                  6,212               6,458
     8,191                5,072                 8,800                 10,603               6,527
       0                    0                     0                      0                   0
       0                    0                     0                      0                   0
       0                    0                     0                      0                   0
     3,255                1,556                 2,700                  3,255               2,700
    19,946               13,201                21,746                 25,890              25,967
     76.96                50.93                 83.90                  99.89              100.18
                                                                                           2,997
                                                               subtotal ratio
                                                               (BAU:2005):             1.758545787

 2050 Portrait

Maximum drivers     Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers      Business-As-Usual

 High efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency


       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0




       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
      0.00                0.00                  0.00                   0.00                0.00


 2050 Portrait

Maximum drivers     Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers      Business-As-Usual

 High efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency


       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
     3,522               1,384                 2,982                  4,342               8,496
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0

                                                               subtotal ratio
                                                               (BAU:2005):                 2.175644785




     3,840               2,996                 4,232                  4,848               4,232
      531                 253                   439                    528                 170
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
      211                 211                   211                    211                 415
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0

     8,105               4,844                 7,864                  9,929               13,312
     30.80               18.41                 29.89                  37.74                50.59

                                                               subtotal ratio
                                                               (BAU:2005):             1.932881234
  2050 Portrait

Maximum drivers     Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers Business-As-Usual
 High efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency


       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
  0        0        0        0       0
  0        0        0        0       0
  0        0        0        0       0




  0        0        0        0       0
  0        0        0        0       0
  0        0        0        0       0
  0        0        0        0       0
  0        0        0        0       0
  0        0        0        0       0
  0        0        0        0       0
  0        0        0        0       0
  0        0        0        0       0


319.07   233.41   324.58   385.17   #REF!
                                    #REF!
                    Heating efficiency
                        reduction:                30%
                    Building efficiency
                        reduction:               40%
                                            Medium efficiency
 Baseline drivers                                case                              H2 w/ behavior case
Business As Usual   Industrial efficiency
    efficiency          reduction:               2.35%          Behavior factor:

                     (Heating portion)           Total
    226,896              90,384                 145,176                -10%             130,658
    199,029              36,866                 123,104                -10%             110,794
                                                                       -10%
    111,319               23,780                108,707                                  97,836
     33,062                2,526                 20,090                -10%              18,081
     28,399                1,974                 17,237                 0%               17,237
                         155,529                414,313                                 374,606
                Additional
              transportation
          efficiency reduction:
                                                       Behavior factor:
36,553             0%                  36,553                 -10%              32,897
 4,358             0%                   4,358                 -10%               3,923
   0                                      0                   -10%                 0
   0               0%                     0                   200%                 0
 1,449             0%                   1,449                 200%               4,348
 1,019             0%                   1,019                 -10%                917
   0                                      0                   -10%                 0
          Average transport
642,085   reduction:                  457,693                                  416,691
                 0.00%                 156.63
             Transport elec:        43379.69391
            Total - transport -
                  indus:            305606.6601

                                  Medium efficiency
                                       case

                                  Efficiency target:                      H2 w/ behavior case
                                        40.00%         Behavior factor:
              Industrial fuel
                reduction:             62.78%
 2,403                                  1,442                 -10%              1,298
  980                                    588                  -10%               529
                                                              -10%
 9,274                                 3,452                                    3,107
  67                                    40                    -10%               36
  52                                    31                     0%                31
                                                                                5,001




  0                                      0                    -10%                0
  0                                      0                    -10%                0
  0                                      0                    -10%                0
  0                                      0                    200%                0
  0                                      0                    200%                0
  0                                      0                    -10%                0
  0                                      0                    -10%                0
12,777                                 5,554                                    5,001
                                       18.57
               TBtu/yr-->           555.3592406



                                  Medium efficiency
                                       case
                           Efficiency target:                      H2 w/ behavior case
                                  40%           Behavior factor:
         Industrial fuel
           reduction:            47%
  0                               0                    -10%                0
  0                               0                    -10%                0
4,679                           2,487                  -10%              2,238
  0                               0                    -10%                0
  0                               0                     0%                 0
                                                                         2,238



           Efficiency
         improvements:
5,603         60%               2,241                  -10%              2,017



                                                       -10%


 6,458       31%                 4,456                                    4,010
 6,527       53%                 3,068                 -10%               2,761
   0                               0                   200%                 0
   0                               0                   200%                 0
   0                               0                   -10%                 0
 2,700       40%                 1,620                 -10%               1,458
25,967                          13,872                                   12,484
                                 53.52




                           Medium efficiency
                                case




                                   0
                                   0
                                   0
                                   0
                                   0




                                   0
                                         0
                                         0
                                         0
                                         0
                                         0
                                         0
                                         0
                                        0.00



                                  Medium efficiency
                                       case

                                  Efficiency target:
                                         40%                              H2 w/ behavior case
             industrial fuel             63%           Behavior factor:
   0                                       0                 -10%                 0
   0                                       0                 -10%                 0
 8,496                                   3,162               -10%               2,846
   0                                       0                 -10%                 0
   0                                       0                   0%                 0
                                                                                2,846



                Additional
              transportation
          efficiency reduction:

          (same as electricity)
 4,232            0%                   4,232                  -10%              3,808
  170             0%                    170                   -10%               153
   0              0%                     0                    -10%                0
  415             0%                    415                   200%              1,244
   0              0%                     0                    200%                0
   0              0%                     0                    -10%                0
   0              0%                     0                    -10%                0
          Average transport
#VALUE!   reduction:                   7,979                                    8,052
                 0.00%                 30.32




                                  Medium efficiency
                                       case



                                          0
                                          0
 0
 0
 0




 0
 0
 0
 0
 0
 0
 0
 0
 0


#REF!
                             76%

                              0.8                         2050 Portrait
                                                                 Medium efficiency
                      High efficiency case High efficiency case         case              CHECK:




                            49,347              49,347               145,176         per household-yr
                            41,424              41,424               123,104         per ft2-yr

(Handled specially)         23,308              23,308               108,707         per $1000 shipment
                             6,723               6,723                20,090         per $1000 GSP
                             5,767               5,767                17,237         per capita-yr
      Additional
    transportation
efficiency reduction:
                                                                                              414313.3696
         0%                   36,553              36,553               36,553
         0%                    4,358               4,358                4,358
         0%                      0                   0                    0
         0%                      0                   0                    0
        38%                     892                 892                 1,449
        41%                     597                 597                 1,019
                                 0                   0                    0
Average transport
reduction:                   168,970              168,970              457,693
       2.26%                  57.82                #REF!                #REF!
                                                 <-- TBtu/yr


                                                            2050 Portrait                   CHECK:
                                                                   Medium efficiency
                        High efficiency case High efficiency case         case

                         Efficiency target:
                                 0.8


                               481                  481                 1,442          per household-yr
      TBtu/yr:                 196                  196                  588           per ft2-yr

        345                   1,855                1,855                3,452          per $1000 shipment
                               13                   13                   40            per $1000 GSP
                               10                   10                   31            per capita-yr




                                0                     0                  0
                                0                     0                  0
                                0                     0                  0
                                0                     0                  0
                                0                     0                  0
                                0                     0                  0
                                0                     0                  0
                              2,555                 2,555              5,554
                               8.54                #REF!               #REF!
                                                 <-- TBtu/yr


                                                           2050 Portrait
                                                                  Medium efficiency
                        High efficiency case High efficiency case        case
                     Efficiency target:
                             0.8


                            0                     0                    0
                            0                     0                    0
                           936                   936                 2,487
                            0                     0                    0
                            0                     0                    0




     Notes:
                          1,121                 1,121                2,241
 (Was: 31% effic
reduc x 10% mile
   reduction x
 additional 6% to
     adjust for
  differences in
    scenario)             1,292                 1,292                 4,456
                          1,305                 1,305                 3,068
                            0                     0                     0
                            0                     0                     0
                            0                     0                     0
                           540                   540                  1,620
                          5,193                 5,193                13,872
                          20.04                #REF!                 #REF!
                                             <-- TBtu/yr



                                            2050 Portrait
                                                                Medium efficiency
                    High efficiency case High efficiency case        case




                                                  0                    0
                                                  0                    0
                                                  0                    0
                                                  0                    0
                                                  0                    0




                                                  0                    0
                                                     0                     0
                                                     0                     0
                                                     0                     0
                                                     0                     0
                                                     0                     0
                                                     0                     0
                                                     0                     0
                                                   #REF!                 #REF!


                                                2050 Portrait
                                                                    Medium efficiency
                        High efficiency case High efficiency case        case

                         Efficiency target:


                                0                     0                    0
                                0                     0                    0
                              8,496                 8,496                3,162
                                0                     0                    0
                                0                     0                    0




      Additional
    transportation
efficiency reduction:


        32%                   2,896                 2,896                4,232
        15%                    170                   170                  170
                                0                     0                    0
        54%                    415                   415                  415
        59%                     0                     0                    0
        61%                     0                     0                    0
                                0                     0                    0
Average transport
reduction:                    11,977               11,977                7,979
      27.73%                   45.52               #REF!                 #REF!



                                                2050 Portrait
                                                                    Medium efficiency
                        High efficiency case High efficiency case        case



                                                      0                    0
                                                      0                    0
    0          0
    0          0
    0          0




    0           0
    0           0
    0           0
    0           0
    0           0
    0           0
    0           0
    0           0
  #REF!       #REF!


  #REF!       #REF!
<-- TBtu/yr
                     Sector2carrier sheet   Check:
                                            2050 BAU/2005
 Baseline drivers                           ratio

Moderate efficiency Moderate efficiency


      9493.856177                   5712          1.610178302
             14.41                 11.74          1.682523719

             52.38                 52.38          2.066589435
              6.63                  6.12          1.432644983
            518.41                482.38          1.770933655
                                            1.703961999



                     Sector2carrier sheet
 Baseline drivers

Moderate efficiency Moderate efficiency




            109.16                363.88    1.526313626
              0.08                  0.28    1.778541838

              3.10                  5.31    2.344481094
              0.01                  0.04    1.064541157
              0.96                  3.19    1.156777211




                                            2.064237953
1.737918449




      1.96875
 1.717740764
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

 1.49876881
1.797654726
Carrier portraits

Electricity Stress Test (BAU-E) 0.00

Carrier to sector distribution          Carrier
                                                        Conventional
(Copied from carrier portraits                          Gaseous fuel     Conventional Liquid
sheet)                                 Electricity      (natural gas)         Fuels
Sector
Residential
- Single-family households       0.00                0.00                0.00
- Multi-family households        (assume all         0.00                0.00
- Average                        1.00                0.00                0.00
Commercial                       1.00                0.00                0.00
Industrial                       1.00                0.00                0.00
Agricultural                     1.00                0.00                0.00
Other                            1.00                0.00                0.00
Light-duty vehicles              0.00                0.00                0.00
- Conventional gasoline engine   0.00                0.00                0.00
- Gasoline hybrid                0.00                0.00                0.00
- Diesel                         (ratios for each    0.00                (1 - electricity)
- Average                        1.00                0.00                0.00
Heavy-duty vehicles              0.33                0.00                0.67
Airplanes                        0.00                0.00                1.00
Bus                              1.00                0.00                0.00
Rail-passenger                   1.00                0.00                0.00
Rail-freight                     1.00                0.00                0.00
Marine                           0.00                0.00                1.00

Carrier demands
C=DxExF


Electricity


GWh/yr                                   2005


Sector                                   Data         Minimum drivers      Baseline drivers
Residential                                            High efficiency     High efficiency
- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Total                                164,970              132,588             150,005
Commercial                             127,683              148,931             148,922

Industrial                             197,731              151,356             326,114
Agricultural                            23,833               19,683              34,151
Other                                   16,514               29,244              29,244
Light-duty vehicles

- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                          83,549        85,639            120,974
Heavy-duty vehicles              17,978        20,467             35,513
Airplanes                           0             0                  0
Bus                               3,099         4,645              4,645
Rail-passenger                     967          1,449              1,449
Rail-freight                       382           587               1,019
Marine                              0             0                  0

Total                            636,707      594,590            852,037
Primary demand (GW-thermal)       217.89       203.48             291.58

                                  6,517      <-- TBtu/yr
Conventional gaseous fuel
(natural gas)
Million therms/yr                 2005


Sector                            Data     Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers
Residential                                 High efficiency   High efficiency
- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Total                            0              0                  0
Commercial                         0              0                  0

Industrial                         0              0                  0
Agricultural                       0              0                  0
Other                              0              0                  0
Light-duty vehicles
- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                            0              0                 0
Heavy-duty vehicles                0              0                 0
Airplanes                          0              0                 0
Bus                                0              0                 0
Rail-passenger                     0              0                 0
Rail-freight                       0              0                 0
Marine                             0              0                 0
Total                              0              0                 0
Primary demand (GW-thermal)       0.00           0.00              0.00
                                    0        <-- TBtu/yr
Conventional liquid fuels
Million gallons gasoline
equivalent/yr                     2005


Sector                            Data     Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers
Residential                              High efficiency   High efficiency
- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Total                           0            0                  0
Commercial                        0            0                  0
Industrial                        0            0                  0
Agricultural                      0            0                  0
Other                             0            0                  0
Light-duty vehicles
- Conventional gasoline engine

- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                            0            0                 0
Heavy-duty vehicles              2,680        2,377             4,125
Airplanes                        3,800        3,915             6,794
Bus                                0            0                 0
Rail-passenger                     0            0                 0
Rail-freight                       0            0                 0
Marine                           1,801        1,556             2,700
Total                            8,281        7,849            13,618
Primary demand (GW-thermal)      31.95        30.28             52.54
                                  956      <-- TBtu/yr
Unconventional liquid fuels
Million gallons gasoline
equivalent/yr                    2005


Sector                           Data    Minimum drivers   Baseline drivers

Residential                              High efficiency   High efficiency
- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Total                           0            0                  0
Commercial                        0            0                  0
Industrial                        0            0                  0
Agricultural                      0            0                  0
Other                             0            0                  0
Light-duty vehicles
- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                           0            0                 0
Heavy-duty vehicles               0            0                 0
Airplanes                         0            0                 0
Bus                               0            0                 0
Rail-passenger                    0            0                 0
Rail-freight                      0            0                 0
Marine                            0            0                 0
Total                             0            0                 0
Primary demand (GW-thermal)      0.00         0.00              0.00
                                  0       <-- TBtu/yr
Hydrogen
Million kg H2/yr                 2005


Sector                           Data   Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers

Residential                             High efficiency    High efficiency
- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Total                           0            0                  0
Commercial                        0            0                  0
Industrial                        0            0                  0
Agricultural                      0            0                  0
Other                             0            0                  0
Light-duty vehicles
- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                           0            0                  0
Heavy-duty vehicles               0            0                  0
Airplanes                         0            0                  0
Bus                               0            0                  0
Rail-passenger                    0            0                  0
Rail-freight                      0            0                  0
Marine                            0            0                  0
Total                             0            0                  0
Primary demand (GW-thermal)      0.00         0.00               0.00
                                  0       <-- TBtu/yr
Heat
Trillion Btu/yr                  2005


Sector                           Data   Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers
Residential                              High efficiency   High efficiency
- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Total                           0            0                  0
Commercial                        0            0                  0
Industrial                        0            0                  0
Agricultural                      0            0                  0
Other                             0            0                  0
Light-duty vehicles
- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                           0            0                  0
Heavy-duty vehicles               0            0                  0
Airplanes                         0            0                  0
Bus                               0            0                  0
Rail-passenger                    0            0                  0
Rail-freight                      0            0                  0
Marine                          0           0          0
Total                           0           0          0
Primary demand (GW-thermal)     0           0          0
                                0      <-- TBtu/yr
TOTAL PRIMARY DEMAND
(GW-thermal)                  249.84     233.76      344.12
                               7,473   <-- TBtu/yr
  Unconventional
   Liquid fuels            Hydrogen               Heat


0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00




   2050 Portrait


 Maximum drivers     Minimum drivers        Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers Business-As-Usual
  High efficiency   Moderate efficiency    Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency    Total


       166,308             178,701               202,176              224,148          265,632
       148,924             157,855               157,845              157,848          214,829

       474,813             170,793              367,993                535,789         408,628
        41,174              19,677               34,141                 41,162          34,144
        29,244              29,244               29,244                 29,244          29,245
                                            ag/other portion:           6.66%          952,478
                                                                 subtotal ratio
                                                                 (BAU:2005):       1.79465478207266
                                                                                          485522.3724

    150,784                   117,618           166,148              190,364            166,148
     42,815                    20,400            35,395               42,560             35,395
        0                         0                 0                    0                  0
      4,645                     4,645             4,645                4,645              4,645
      1,449                     1,449             1,449                1,449              1,449
      1,229                      587              1,019                1,229              1,019
        0                         0                 0                    0                  0

   1,061,387                  700,969          1,000,057            1,228,438          1,161,136
     363.22                    239.88            342.24               420.39             397.36
                                           ag/other portion of
                                                  total:              5.46%              11,885
                                                                   subtotal ratio
                                                                   (BAU:2005):        1.968901835
              2050 Portrait


Maximum drivers       Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers Business-As-Usual
 High efficiency     Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency


       0                        0                  0                     0                 0
       0                        0                  0                     0                 0

       0                        0                  0                     0                 0
       0                        0                  0                     0                 0
       0                        0                  0                     0                 0




      0                         0                  0                    0                  0
      0                         0                  0                    0                  0
      0                         0                  0                    0                  0
      0                         0                  0                    0                  0
      0                         0                  0                    0                  0
      0                         0                  0                    0                  0
      0                         0                  0                    0                  0
      0                         0                  0                    0                  0
     0.00                      0.00               0.00                 0.00               0.00



              2050 Portrait


Maximum drivers       Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers     Maximum drivers    Business-As-Usual
 High efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency


       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0




       0                   0                      0                     0                    0
     4,973               2,433                  4,221                 5,075                5,276
     8,191               5,072                  8,800                10,603                6,527
       0                   0                      0                     0                    0
       0                   0                      0                     0                    0
       0                   0                      0                     0                    0
     3,255               1,556                  2,700                 3,255                2,700
    16,419               9,060                 15,721                18,933               14,503
     63.35               34.96                  60.65                 73.05                55.96
                                                                                           1,674
                                                                      ratio:           1.751346583

 2050 Portrait


Maximum drivers     Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers      Business-As-Usual

 High efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency


       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0




       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
      0.00                0.00                  0.00                  0.00                 0.00
 2050 Portrait


Maximum drivers     Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers      Business-As-Usual

 High efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency


       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0




       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
      0.00                0.00                  0.00                  0.00                 0.00


  2050 Portrait


Maximum drivers     Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers Business-As-Usual
 High efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency


       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0




       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                     0                    0
  0        0        0        0       0
  0        0        0        0       0
  0        0        0        0       0


426.57   274.84   402.89   493.44   #REF!
                                    #REF!
 Heating efficiency
    reduction:               82%

Buildings/industrial
efficiency reduction:        0.9                      2050 Portrait

                        Extreme energy   Minimum (extreme Maximum (Business
Business-As-Usual          efficiency        efficiency)      As Usual)              CHECK:
 Heating portion


      129,119              37,127            37,127                   265,632   per household-yr
       52,666              25,792            25,792                   214,829   per ft2-yr

      297,309               65,188           65,188                   408,628   per $1000 shipment
       3,609                 3,710            3,710                    34,144   per $1000 GSP
       2,819                 3,155            3,155                    29,245   per capita-yr
                           134,972
      Additional
    transportation
efficiency reduction:

                        166,148       166,148                   166,148
                         35,395        35,395                    35,395
                            0             0                         0
                          4,645         4,645                     4,645
                          1,449         1,449                     1,449
                          1,019         1,019                     1,019
                            0             0                         0
Average transport
reduction:              343,630       343,630               1,161,136
       0.00%                           #REF!                  #REF!

                                     <-- TBtu/yr


                                                2050 Portrait                  CHECK:

                                  Minimum (extreme Maximum (Business
                                      efficiency)      As Usual)



                          0              0                        0       per household-yr
                          0              0                        0       per ft2-yr

                          0              0                        0       per $1000 shipment
                          0              0                        0       per $1000 GSP
                          0              0                        0       per capita-yr




                          0              0                        0
                          0              0                        0
                          0              0                        0
                          0              0                        0
                          0              0                        0
                          0              0                        0
                          0              0                        0
                          0              0                        0
                                       #REF!                    #REF!



                                                2050 Portrait

                                  Minimum (extreme Maximum (Business
                                      efficiency)      As Usual)
      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0


Transportation
  efficiency:
      90%
        0                0                0
      528               528             5,276
      653               653             6,527
        0                0                0
        0                0                0
        0                0                0
      270               270             2,700
     1,450             1,450           14,503
                      #REF!            #REF!
                    <-- TBtu/yr


                   2050 Portrait

                 Minimum (extreme Maximum (Business
                     efficiency)      As Usual)




      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0




      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0
                      #REF!            #REF!
      2050 Portrait

    Minimum (extreme Maximum (Business
        efficiency)      As Usual)




0          0                0
0          0                0
0          0                0
0          0                0
0          0                0




0          0                0
0          0                0
0          0                0
0          0                0
0          0                0
0          0                0
0          0                0
0          0                0
         #REF!            #REF!


      2050 Portrait

    Minimum (extreme Maximum (Business
        efficiency)      As Usual)



0          0                0
0          0                0
0          0                0
0          0                0
0          0                0




0          0                0
0          0                0
0          0                0
0          0                0
0          0                0
0          0                0
0       0           0
0       0           0
      #REF!       #REF!


      #REF!       #REF!
    <-- TBtu/yr
                     Sector2carrier sheet   Check:

                                            2050 BAU/2005
 Baseline drivers                           ratio
Moderate efficiency Moderate efficiency


      11114.65168                   5712             1.610178302
             15.55                 11.74             1.682523719

            192.26                 52.38             2.066589435
              6.85                  6.12             1.432644983
            533.85                482.38             1.770933655
                                            1.823657245




                     Sector2carrier sheet
 Baseline drivers


Moderate efficiency Moderate efficiency



              0.00                363.88    #DIV/0!
              0.00                  0.28    #DIV/0!

              0.00                  5.31    #DIV/0!
              0.00                  0.04    #DIV/0!
              0.00                  3.19    #DIV/0!




                                            #DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
      1.96875
 1.717740764
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

 1.49876881
1.751346583
Carrier portraits

Hydrogen Stress Test (BAU-H) 0.00

Carrier to sector distribution         Carrier
                                                           Conventional
(Copied from carrier portraits                             Gaseous fuel     Conventional Liquid
sheet)                                Electricity          (natural gas)         Fuels
Sector
Residential
- Single-family households       0.00                  0.00                 0.00
- Multi-family households        (use same ratios as   (1 - electricity)    0.00
- Average                        1.00                  0.00                 0.00
Commercial                       1.00                  0.00                 0.00
Industrial                       0.64                  0.00                 0.00
Agricultural                     1.00                  0.00                 0.00
Other                            1.00                  0.00                 0.00
Light-duty vehicles              0.00                  0.00                 0.00
- Conventional gasoline engine   0.00                  0.00                 0.00
- Gasoline hybrid                0.00                  0.00                 0.00
- Diesel                         0.00                  0.00                 (remainder)
- Average                        0.00                  0.00                 0.00
Heavy-duty vehicles              0.00                  0.00                 0.67
Airplanes                        0.00                  0.00                 1.00
Bus                              0.00                  0.00                 0.00
Rail-passenger                   0.00                  0.00                 0.00
Rail-freight                     0.00                  0.00                 0.00
Marine                           0.00                  0.00                 1.00

Carrier demands
C=DxExF


Electricity


GWh/yr                                  2005


Sector                                  Data             Minimum drivers      Baseline drivers
Residential                                               High efficiency     High efficiency
- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Total                               164,970                 132,588            150,005
Commercial                            127,683                 148,931            148,922

Industrial                            125,798                  96,294            207,477
Agricultural                           23,833                  19,683             34,151
Other                                  16,514                  29,244             29,244
Light-duty vehicles

- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                              0            0                 0
Heavy-duty vehicles                  0            0                 0
Airplanes                            0            0                 0
Bus                                  0            0                 0
Rail-passenger                       0            0                 0
Rail-freight                         0            0                 0
Marine                               0            0                 0
Total                            458,798      426,740            569,799
Primary demand (GW-thermal)       157.01       146.04             195.00
                                   4,696     <-- TBtu/yr
Conventional gaseous fuel
(natural gas)
Million therms/yr                 2005


Sector                            Data     Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers
Residential                                 High efficiency   High efficiency
- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Total                            0              0                  0
Commercial                         0              0                  0

Industrial                         0              0                  0
Agricultural                       0              0                  0
Other                              0              0                  0
Light-duty vehicles
- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                            0              0                 0
Heavy-duty vehicles                0              0                 0
Airplanes                          0              0                 0
Bus                                0              0                 0
Rail-passenger                     0              0                 0
Rail-freight                       0              0                 0
Marine                             0              0                 0
Total                              0              0                 0
Primary demand (GW-thermal)       0.00           0.00              0.00
                                    0        <-- TBtu/yr
Conventional liquid fuels
Million gallons gasoline
equivalent/yr                     2005


Sector                            Data     Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers

Residential                                High efficiency    High efficiency
- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Total                            0              0                  0
Commercial                        0            0                  0
Industrial                        0            0                  0
Agricultural                      0            0                  0
Other                             0            0                  0
Light-duty vehicles
- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                            0            0                 0
Heavy-duty vehicles              2,680        2,377             4,125
Airplanes                        3,800        3,915             6,794
Bus                                0            0                 0
Rail-passenger                     0            0                 0
Rail-freight                       0            0                 0
Marine                           1,801        1,556             2,700
Total                            8,281        7,849            13,618
Primary demand (GW-thermal)      31.95        30.28             52.54
                                  956      <-- TBtu/yr

Unconventional liquid fuels
Million gallons gasoline
equivalent/yr                    2005


Sector                           Data    Minimum drivers   Baseline drivers

Residential                              High efficiency   High efficiency
- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Total                           0            0                  0
Commercial                        0            0                  0
Industrial                        0            0                  0
Agricultural                      0            0                  0
Other                             0            0                  0
Light-duty vehicles
- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                           0             0                0
Heavy-duty vehicles               0             0                0
Airplanes                         0             0                0
Bus                               0             0                0
Rail-passenger                    0             0                0
Rail-freight                      0             0                0
Marine                            0             0                0
Total                             0             0                0
Primary demand (GW-thermal)      0.00          0.00             0.00
                                   0       <-- TBtu/yr
Hydrogen
Million kg H2/yr                 2005
Sector                           Data     Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers

Residential                               High efficiency    High efficiency
- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Total                            0             0                  0
Commercial                         0             0                  0
Industrial                       6,621         1,904              4,102
Agricultural                       0             0                  0
Other                              0             0                  0
Light-duty vehicles

- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid



- Diesel
- Total                          3,800         3,895              5,502
Heavy-duty vehicles               818           931               1,615
Airplanes                           0             0                  0
Bus                               141           211                211
Rail-passenger                     44            66                 66
Rail-freight                       17            27                 46
Marine                              0             0                  0

Total                            11,441        7,033             11,542
Primary demand (GW-thermal)       43.48        26.73              43.87
                                  1,301     <-- TBtu/yr

Heat
Trillion Btu/yr                  2005


Sector                            Data    Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers
Residential                                High efficiency   High efficiency
- Single-family households
- Multi-family households
- Total                            0             0                  0
Commercial                         0             0                  0
Industrial                         0             0                  0
Agricultural                       0             0                  0
Other                              0             0                  0
Light-duty vehicles
- Conventional gasoline engine
- Gasoline hybrid
- Diesel
- Total                            0             0                  0
Heavy-duty vehicles                0             0                  0
Airplanes                          0             0                  0
Bus                             0           0          0
Rail-passenger                  0           0          0
Rail-freight                    0           0          0
Marine                          0           0          0
Total                           0           0          0
Primary demand (GW-thermal)     0           0          0
                                0      <-- TBtu/yr
TOTAL PRIMARY DEMAND
(GW-thermal)                  232.44     203.05      291.40
                               6,952   <-- TBtu/yr
  Unconventional
   Liquid fuels          Hydrogen                 Heat


0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                (1 - electricity)     0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                0.36                  0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                (use same ratios as   0.00
0.00                1.00                  0.00
0.00                0.33                  0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00
0.00                1.00                  0.00
0.00                1.00                  0.00
0.00                1.00                  0.00
0.00                0.00                  0.00




   2050 Portrait


 Maximum drivers     Minimum drivers        Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers Business-As-Usual
  High efficiency   Moderate efficiency    Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency


       166,308           178,701                 202,176               224,148         265,632
       148,924           157,855                 157,845               157,848         214,829

       302,081           108,660                 234,121               340,874         259,974
        41,174            19,677                  34,141                41,162          34,144
        29,244            29,244                  29,244                29,244          29,245

                                                                 subtotal ratio
                                                                 (BAU:2005):            1.752019705
       0                         0                 0                     0                     0
       0                         0                 0                     0                     0
       0                         0                 0                     0                     0
       0                         0                 0                     0                     0
       0                         0                 0                     0                     0
       0                         0                 0                     0                     0
       0                         0                 0                     0                     0
    687,731                   494,138           657,527               793,276              803,824
     235.35                    169.10            225.02                271.47               275.08
                                                                                             8,228


              2050 Portrait


Maximum drivers       Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers Business-As-Usual
 High efficiency     Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency


       0                        0                  0                     0                    0
       0                        0                  0                     0                    0

       0                        0                  0                     0                    0
       0                        0                  0                     0                    0
       0                        0                  0                     0                    0




       0                        0                  0                     0                    0
       0                        0                  0                     0                    0
       0                        0                  0                     0                    0
       0                        0                  0                     0                    0
       0                        0                  0                     0                    0
       0                        0                  0                     0                    0
       0                        0                  0                     0                    0
       0                        0                  0                     0                    0
      0.00                     0.00               0.00                  0.00                 0.00



              2050 Portrait


Maximum drivers       Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers      Business-As-Usual

 High efficiency     Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency


       0                        0                  0                     0                    0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0




       0                   0                      0                      0                   0
     4,973               2,433                  4,221                  5,075               5,276
     8,191               5,072                  8,800                 10,603               6,527
       0                   0                      0                      0                   0
       0                   0                      0                      0                   0
       0                   0                      0                      0                   0
     3,255               1,556                  2,700                  3,255               2,700
    16,419               9,060                 15,721                 18,933              14,503
     63.35               34.96                  60.65                  73.05               55.96
                                                                                           1,674
                                                               subtotal ratio
                                                               (BAU:2005):             1.751346583

 2050 Portrait


Maximum drivers     Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers      Business-As-Usual

 High efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency


       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0




       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
      0.00                0.00                  0.00                   0.00                0.00


 2050 Portrait
Maximum drivers     Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers      Business-As-Usual

 High efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency


       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
     5,972               2,347                 5,056                  7,362               14,405
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0
       0                   0                     0                      0                   0

                                                               subtotal ratio
                                                               (BAU:2005):                 2.175644785




     6,858               5,349                 7,556                  8,658               7,556
     1,947                928                  1,610                  1,936                624
        0                   0                     0                      0                   0
      211                 211                   211                    211                 415
       66                  66                    66                     66                  66
       56                  27                    46                     56                  46
        0                   0                     0                      0                   0

    15,110               8,928                 14,546                 18,288              23,112
     57.42               33.93                  55.28                  69.50               87.83
                                                                                           2,627
                                                               subtotal ratio
                                                               (BAU:2005):              1.80654003
  2050 Portrait


Maximum drivers     Minimum drivers       Baseline drivers      Maximum drivers Business-As-Usual
 High efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Moderate efficiency


       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0




       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
       0                   0                     0                       0                  0
  0        0        0        0       0
  0        0        0        0       0
  0        0        0        0       0
  0        0        0        0       0
  0        0        0        0       0
  0        0        0        0       0


356.12   237.99   340.95   414.02   #REF!
                                    #REF!
 Heating efficiency
    reduction:               0%

Buildings/industrial
efficiency reduction:       90%                        2050 Portrait

                        Extreme energy   Minimum (extreme Maximum (Business
Business-As-Usual          efficiency        efficiency)      As Usual)               CHECK:
 Heating portion


      129,119              142,771           142,771                   265,632   per household-yr
       52,666               68,882            68,882                   214,829   per ft2-yr

      148,655              159,787           159,787                   259,974   per $1000 shipment
       3,609                6,662             6,662                     34,144   per $1000 GSP
       2,819                5,462             5,462                     29,245   per capita-yr
       0                     0                       0
       0                     0                       0
       0                     0                       0
       0                     0                       0
       0                     0                       0
       0                     0                       0
       0                     0                       0
    383,563              383,563                  803,824
                          #REF!                    #REF!
                        <-- TBtu/yr


                                  2050 Portrait                  CHECK:

Extreme energy       Minimum (extreme Maximum (Business
     efficiency          efficiency)      As Usual)
Efficiency target:
         0.9

        0                   0                       0       per household-yr
        0                   0                       0       per ft2-yr

        0                   0                       0       per $1000 shipment
        0                   0                       0       per $1000 GSP
        0                   0                       0       per capita-yr




        0                   0                       0
        0                   0                       0
        0                   0                       0
        0                   0                       0
        0                   0                       0
        0                   0                       0
        0                   0                       0
        0                   0                       0
                          #REF!                   #REF!



                                  2050 Portrait

Extreme energy       Minimum (extreme Maximum (Business
   efficiency            efficiency)      As Usual)

Efficiency target:
        0.9

        0                   0                       0
      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0




      0                  0                0
     528                528             5,276
     653                653             6,527
      0                  0                0
      0                  0                0
      0                  0                0
     270                270             2,700
    1,450              1,450           14,503
                      #REF!            #REF!
                    <-- TBtu/yr



                   2050 Portrait

Extreme energy   Minimum (extreme Maximum (Business
   efficiency        efficiency)      As Usual)




      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0




      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0
      0                 0                0
                      #REF!            #REF!


                   2050 Portrait
                        Extreme energy       Minimum (extreme Maximum (Business
                           efficiency            efficiency)      As Usual)

                        Efficiency target:
                               88%

                               0                    0                0
                               0                    0                0
                             1,801                1,801            14,405
                               0                    0                0
                               0                    0                0




      Additional
    transportation
efficiency reduction:
                             7,556                7,556             7,556
                              624                  624               624
                                0                    0                 0
                              415                  415               415
                               66                   66                66
                               46                   46                46
                                0                    0                 0
Average transport
reduction:                   10,508               10,508           23,112
       0.00%                                      #REF!            #REF!
                                                <-- TBtu/yr


                                               2050 Portrait

                        Extreme energy       Minimum (extreme Maximum (Business
                           efficiency            efficiency)      As Usual)



                                0                   0                0
                                0                   0                0
                                0                   0                0
                                0                   0                0
                                0                   0                0




                                0                   0                0
                                0                   0                0
                                0                   0                0
0       0           0
0       0           0
0       0           0
0       0           0
0       0           0
      #REF!       #REF!


      #REF!       #REF!
    <-- TBtu/yr
                     Sector2carrier sheet   Check:

                                            2050 BAU/2005
 Baseline drivers                           ratio
Moderate efficiency Moderate efficiency


      11114.65168                   5712             1.610178302
             15.55                 11.74             1.682523719

            122.32                 52.38             2.066589435
              6.85                  6.12             1.432644983
            533.85                482.38             1.770933655
                                            1.752019705



                     Sector2carrier sheet
 Baseline drivers


Moderate efficiency Moderate efficiency



              0.00                363.88    #DIV/0!
              0.00                  0.28    #DIV/0!

              0.00                  5.31    #DIV/0!
              0.00                  0.04    #DIV/0!
              0.00                  3.19    #DIV/0!




                                            #DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
      1.96875
 1.717740764
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

 1.49876881
1.751346583
Technology to               All 1's need to
carrier conversion          be filled in with
efficiency                  real #s
(fixed for all portraits)   (blank = n/a)                Carrier
                                                                                  Conventional
                                                                                  Gaseous fuel
                                                         Electricity              (natural gas)


Technology                  Units                        GWh/yr                   Million therms/yr
Coal                        per GW   output                            7,451.41                 254.24
Coal/CCS                    per GW   output                            7,451.41                 254.24
Petroleum                   per GW   output                            7,013.09                 239.29
Natural gas                 per GW   output                            7,013.09                 239.29
Nuclear                     per GW   output                            7,889.73                 269.20
Biomass & waste             per GW   output                            7,013.09                 239.29
Solar PV                    per GW   output                            1,753.27                  59.82
Solar concentrating         per GW   output                            7,013.09                 239.29
Wind                        per GW   output                            3,506.55                 119.64
Geothermal                  per GW   output                            7,013.09                 239.29
Hydro                       per GW   output                            4,383.18                 149.55
Ocean                       per GW   output                            4,383.18                 149.55

Hours per yr                             8766

Supporting params

                            Capacity factor
                            Electricity      Old:
Coal                                    0.85        0.85
Coal/CCS                                0.85        0.85
Petroleum                                0.8        0.85
Natural gas                              0.8        0.85
Nuclear                                  0.9         0.9
Biomass & waste                          0.8         0.8
Solar PV                                 0.2         0.2
Solar concentrating                      0.8         0.3 Note: with storage
Wind                                     0.4         0.4
Geothermal                               0.8        0.85
Hydro                                    0.5         0.5
Ocean                                    0.5         0.5

CO2 content                                              Carrier
                                                                                  Conventional
Technology                                               Electricity              Gaseous fuel
                                                                                  kg CO2 per million
Units-->                    kg CO2 per MJ                kg CO2 per kWh           therms
Coal                                0.1353                       1.81576E-05              0.00053217
Coal/CCS                         0.020295                        2.72365E-06             7.98255E-05
Petroleum                           0.0715                       1.01952E-05             0.000298805
Natural gas                          0.055                       7.84248E-06              0.00022985
Nuclear                                                                    0                         0
Biomass & waste                      0.01                         1.4259E-06   4.17909E-05
Solar PV                                                                   0             0
Solar concentrating                                                        0             0
Wind                                                                       0             0
Geothermal                                                                 0             0
Hydro                                                                      0             0
Ocean                                                                      0             0

OLD STUFF

                           Maximum          Firm capacity
                         capacity factor     (% of peak)
Coal-conventional             0.8                 1
Coal-CCS                      0.8                 1
Nuclear                       0.9                 1
Hydro-large                   0.5                0.8
Hydro-small                   0.5                0.8
Wind-onshore                 0.35                0.2
Wind-offshore                0.45                0.2
Solar-PV                     0.18                0.8
Solar-CSP                     0.3                0.8
Geothermal-
conventional                  0.8                1
Geothermal-EGS                0.8                1
Biomass/waste                 0.8                1
Natural gas                   0.8                1
Hydrogen                      0.8                1

Hours/year                    8766

CA Gross System Power 2005
http://www.energy.ca.gov/2006publications/CEC-300-2006-009/CEC-300-2006-
                           In-State      NW Imports      SW Imports      Gross State Power
                           GWh/yr          GWh/yr           GWh/yr            GWh/yr
Coal                        28129           4926            24796              57851
Large Hydro                 34500          12883             1701              49084
Nuclear                     36155            691             4861              41707
Natural Gas                 96088           1786            10812             108686
Renewables                  30916             0                0               30916
- Biomass                    6045                                               6045
- Geothermal                14379                                              14379
- Small Hydro                5386                                               5386
- Solar                       660                                                660
- Wind                       4446                                               4446
Total                                                                         288244

AEO 2008
Sup_elec.xls
Table 74: Western Electricity Coordinating Council - California
Electricity Generating                        Generation by Fuel
Capacity 1/                       2005        Type                        2005
(gigawatts)                                   (billion kilowatthours)
   Coal                            4.31          Coal                     30.88
   Oil and Natural Gas
Steam 2/                          15.96         Petroleum                  2.06
   Combined Cycle                 12.88         Natural Gas               77.21
   Combustion
Turbine/Diesel                    6.09
Oil/Natural Gas total            34.93        Oil/Natural Gas total      79.27
   Nuclear Power                  5.45           Nuclear                 43.23
   Pumped                                        Pumped
Storage/Other 3/                   3.69       Storage/Other 9/             0.85
   Fuel Cells                         0
   Renewable Sources                            Renewable
4/                                15.08       Sources 10/                 58.99
   Distributed
Generation 5/                         0           Total Generation       213.21

   Total Capacity                 63.46         Sales to Customers       210.74
                                                Generation for Own
                                              Use                          2.47
                                                Distributed
                                              Generation 5/                  0

Table 90: Renewable capacity for California

 Generating Capacity                           Electricity Generation

 (gigawatts)                                   (billion kilowatthours)
  Conventional                                   Conventional
Hydropower                         9.87       Hydropower                  38.65
  Geothermal 2/                    1.91          Geothermal 2/            12.23
                                                 Biogenic Municipal
   Municipal Waste 3/              0.32       Waste 6/                      1.2
   Wood and Other                                Wood and Other
Biomass 4/                          0.4       Biomass 4/                   2.33
Combined                                      Combined
biomass/MSW                       0.72        biomass/MSW                 3.53
   Solar Thermal                    0.4          Solar Thermal            0.54
   Solar Photovoltaic                            Solar Photovoltaic
5/                                 0.01       5/                              0
   Wind                            2.18          Wind                      4.01
   Offshore Wind                      0          Offshore Wind                0
    Total                         15.08           Total                   58.95

Table 75: United States

Electricity Generating                        Generation by Fuel
Capacity 1/                       2005        Type                        2005
(gigawatts)                                   (billion kilowatthours)
   Coal                          309.7             Coal                     1992.06
   Oil and Natural Gas
Steam 2/                        121.16             Petroleum                 116.77
   Combined Cycle               169.28             Natural Gas               683.29
   Combustion
Turbine/Diesel                 130.32
Oil/Natural Gas total          420.76            Oil/Natural Gas total      800.06
   Nuclear Power               100.21               Nuclear                 781.99
   Pumped                                           Pumped
Storage/Other 3/                 21.46           Storage/Other 9/              4.47
   Fuel Cells                        0
   Renewable Sources                               Renewable
4/                               93.46           Sources 10/                 323.46
   Distributed
Generation 5/                        0               Total Generation       3902.03

   Total Capacity               945.59             Sales to Customers       3869.18
                                                   Generation for Own
                                                 Use                          32.85
                                                   Distributed
                                                 Generation 5/                   0

Table 91: Renewable capacity for United States

 Generating Capacity             2005             Electricity Generation      2005

 (gigawatts)                                      (billion kilowatthours)
  Conventional                                      Conventional
Hydropower                       76.72           Hydropower                  266.91
  Geothermal 2/                   2.23              Geothermal 2/             14.69
                                                    Biogenic Municipal
   Municipal Waste 3/             3.21           Waste 6/                      12.7
   Wood and Other                                   Wood and Other
Biomass 4/                        1.96           Biomass 4/                   10.57
Combined                                         Combined
biomass/MSW                       5.17           biomass/MSW                 23.27
   Solar Thermal                    0.4             Solar Thermal             0.54
   Solar Photovoltaic                               Solar Photovoltaic
5/                                0.03           5/                            0.02
   Wind                           8.92              Wind                      17.81
   Offshore Wind                     0              Offshore Wind                 0
    Total                        93.46               Total                   323.23
Conventional Liquid     Unconventional
Fuels                   Liquid fuels             Hydrogen              Heat
Million gallons         Million gallons
gasoline                gasoline
equivalent/yr           equivalent/yr            Million kg H2/yr      Trillion Btu/yr
               220.31                     2.75                 223.66                    25.42
               220.31                     2.75                 223.66                    25.42
               207.35                     2.59                 210.51                    23.93
               207.35                     2.59                 210.51                    23.93
               233.27                     2.92                 236.82                    26.92
               207.35                     2.59                 210.51                    23.93
                51.84                     0.65                   52.63                    5.98
               207.35                     2.59                 210.51                    23.93
               103.68                     1.30                 105.25                    11.96
               207.35                     2.59                 210.51                    23.93
               129.60                     1.62                 131.57                    14.96
               129.60                     1.62                 131.57                    14.96




Conventional Liquid     Unconventional
Fuels                   Liquid fuels         Hydrogen          Heat
kg CO2 per gallon       kg CO2 per gallon                      kg CO2 per Million
gasoline equivalent     gasoline equivalent kg CO2 per kg H2 Btu
       0.000614124              0.049129937        0.000604927          0.0053217
       9.21186E-05              0.007369491         9.0739E-05       0.000798255
       0.000344821              0.027585661        0.000339656       0.002988048
       0.000265247              0.021219739        0.000261274       0.002298499
                   0                       0                 0                    0
 4.82267E-05   0.003858134   4.75044E-05   0.000417909
           0             0             0             0
           0             0             0             0
           0             0             0             0
           0             0             0             0
           0             0             0             0
           0             0             0             0




Fraction

 20.07%
 17.03%
 14.47%
 37.71%
 10.73%
  2.10%
  4.99%
  1.87%
  0.23%
  1.54%
100.00%
      Calculated capacity factor
    California       US (see below)
     81.73%              73.38%




     25.89%               21.69%
     90.49%               89.02%

      2.63%                2.38%




       Calculated capacity factor

    California         US (see below)

     44.67%               39.69%
     73.05%               75.15%

     42.78%               45.13%

     66.45%               61.52%

     55.93%               51.35%
     15.40%               15.40%

      0.00%                7.61%
     20.98%               22.78%




Calculated capacity
       factor
     73.38%




     21.69%
     89.02%

      2.38%




Calculated capacity
       factor



     39.69%
     75.15%

     45.13%

     61.52%

     51.35%
     15.40%

      7.61%
     22.78%
Demand calcs

Block DE1                                                                          2050 Portrait
Total demand,
GWh/yr                 2005     Minimum drivers   Baseline drivers   Maximum drivers

                       Data     High efficiency   High efficiency     High efficiency

Residential
- Single-family
households              0             0                  0                  0
- Multi-family
households               0            0                 0                   0
- Total               164,970      132,588           150,005             166,308

Commercial            127,683      148,931           148,922             148,924

Industrial            197,731      151,356           326,114             474,813

Agricultural          23,833        19,683            34,151             41,174

Other                 16,514       29,244            29,244              29,244
Total                 530,731      481,802           688,436             860,463


DEP1 = P1 x DEP3
x DEP4 / 1000

Block DEP1             2005                                                        2050 Portrait

Peak demand, GW        Data     Minimum drivers   Baseline drivers   Maximum drivers

                                High efficiency   High efficiency     High efficiency


Residential            21.03        16.90              19.12              21.20


Commercial             19.55        22.81              22.81              22.81



Industrial             8.91          6.82              14.68              21.38


Agricultural            4.6          3.81              6.60                7.96

Other sectors          2.23          3.95              3.95                3.95
Non-coincident peak
(straight sum)         56.32        54.28              67.16              77.29

Natural gas
DN1 = P1 x DN3 x
DN4

Block DN1                 2005                                                         2050 Portrait
Total demand, MM
therms/yr                 Data      Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers   Maximum drivers

                                    High efficiency    High efficiency     High efficiency

Residential              10,796          8,657              9,794             10,858


Commercial               7,493           9,997              9,997              9,997



Industrial               13,186          7,436             16,021             23,327


Agricultural             1,990           1,221              2,119              2,555

Other                    1,568          1,814              1,814              1,814
Total                    35,034         29,125             39,745             48,550

Transportation
DT1 = P1 x DT2 x DT3 x DT5 / 1000

Block DT1                                                                              2050 Portrait

Fuel used, million
gallons gasoline
equivalent per
year:                     2005      Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers   Maximum drivers
                          Data       High efficiency   High efficiency     High efficiency
Light-duty vehicles:
- Conventional
gasoline engine            15              3                 8                   11
- Gasoline hybrid           0              2                 1                    1
- Diesel                    0              2                 1                    1
- Total                    15              6                 10                  12

Heavy-duty vehicles        4               4                  6                  7
Airplanes                  4               4                  7                  8
Other (to fill in)
Total                      22             14                 23                  28


Block DT7                                                                              2050 Portrait
Ethanol (assume
fixed 5.7% of
gasoline), million
gallons eq./yr            2005      Minimum drivers    Baseline drivers   Maximum drivers
(for reference only;
not used in calcs)       Data     High efficiency    High efficiency    High efficiency
- Conventional
gasoline engine           1             0                  0                  1
- Gasoline hybrid         0             0                  0                  0
- Total                   1             0                  0                  1




Electrification of
transport                2005                         2050 Portrait
                         Data    Minimum demand     Baseline demand    Maximum demand
Light-duty vehicles
% plug-in hybrid
electric vehicles
(PHEV)                     0           0.5                0.5                0.5
% battery electric
vehicles (BEV)             0           0.5                0.5                0.5
% electric miles
(PHEV)                     0           0.68               0.68               0.68
% electric miles
(overall)                  0           0.84               0.84               0.84
VMT electrical,
million miles/yr           0         209,970            498,444            729,763




Electrical efficiency,
kWh/mile                   0           0.24               0.24               0.24
Electric demand,
GWh/yr                     0         50,393             119,627            175,143

% of base electric
demand in scenario       0.00%       10.46%             17.38%             20.35%
Change in fuel
demand, million
gge/yr                     0            -5                 -8                -10
% of base fuel
demand in scenario       0.00%   -38.23%   -35.97%   -37.17%


Heavy-duty vehicles
% plug-in hybrid
electric vehicles
(PHEV)                     0       0         0         0
% battery electric
vehicles (BEV)             0       0.1       0.1       0.1
% electric miles
(PHEV)                     0       0         0         0
% electric miles
(overall)                  0       0.1       0.1       0.1
VMT electrical,
million miles/yr           0      2,233     4,725     7,260

Electrical efficiency,
kWh/mile                   0      0.96      0.96      0.96
Electric demand,
GWh/yr                     0      2,144     4,536     6,970

% of base electric
demand in scenario       0.00%   0.44%     0.66%     0.81%
2050 Portrait

        Minimum drivers      Baseline drivers    Maximum drivers

       Moderate efficiency Moderate efficiency Moderate efficiency



                  0                 0                    0

                   0                0                   0
                178,701          202,176             224,148

                157,855          157,845             157,848

                170,793          367,993             535,789

                19,677           34,141               41,162

                29,244           29,244               29,244
                556,270          791,399              988,191




2050 Portrait                                                        Block DEP2            2005

        Minimum drivers      Baseline drivers    Maximum drivers   Primary drivers         Data
                                                                   (for reference only;
       Moderate efficiency Moderate efficiency Moderate efficiency not used in calcs)

                                                                     Households,
                 24.97            28.25                31.32         millions              12.17
                                                                     Commercial
                                                                     floorspace, million
                 30.50            30.50                30.50         ft2                   6073

                                                                     Industrial
                                                                     shipments, billion
                 7.70             16.58                24.14         2001$                 588.9
                                                                     Gross State
                                                                     Product, billion
                 3.80             6.60                 7.96          2000$                 1471
                                                                     CA population,
                 3.95             3.95                 3.95          millions              36.55

                 70.92            85.88                97.87
2050 Portrait                                                        Block DN2              2005

        Minimum drivers      Baseline drivers    Maximum drivers   Primary drivers          Data
                                                                   (for reference only;
       Moderate efficiency Moderate efficiency Moderate efficiency not used in calcs)
                                                                   Households,
            12,036              13,617              15,097         millions                 12.17
                                                                   Commercial
                                                                   floorspace, million
            11,410              11,409              11,409         ft2                      6073

                                                                     Industrial
                                                                     shipments, billion
                9,166            19,749               28,754         2001$                  588.9
                                                                     Gross State
                                                                     Product, billion
                1,221             2,118                2,554         2000$                  1471
                                                                     CA population,
                1,814            1,814                1,814          millions               36.55
                35,647           48,708               59,629




2050 Portrait




        Minimum drivers     Baseline drivers    Maximum drivers
       Moderate efficiency Moderate efficiency Moderate efficiency


                 6                 18                   26
                 4                  1                    2
                 4                  4                    2
                 15                23                   30

                  4                 6                    8
                  5                 9                   11

                 24                38                   48
                                                                     Block DT8              2005

2050 Portrait                                                        Primary drivers        Data


                                                                     (for reference only;
        Minimum drivers      Baseline drivers    Maximum drivers     not used in calcs)
                                                            Light duty vehicles,
Moderate efficiency Moderate efficiency Moderate efficiency millions:
                                                            - Conventional
        0                   1                   1           gasoline engine         25.84
        0                   0                   0           - Gasoline hybrid        0.08
        1                   1                   2           - Diesel                 0.00
                                                            - Total light-duty
                                                            vehicles                25.92
                                                            Gross State
                                                            Product, billion
                                                            2000$                   1471
                                                            Gross State
                                                            Product, billion
                                                            2000$                   1471



                                                             Notes


                                                             80in50 electric
                                                             scenario
                                                             80in50 electric
                                                             scenario
                                                             80in50 electric
                                                             scenario




                                                             2009 Tesla
                                                             Roadster: ~220
                                                             miles over EPA
                                                             drive cycles using a
                                                             53kWh battery,
                                                             giving ~.241
                                                             kWh/mile. Sources:
                                                             http://www.teslamot
                                                             ors.com/performanc
                                                             e/perf_specs.php,
                                                             http://www.wired.co
                                                             m/autopia/2009/03/d
                                                             riven-finally
80in50 electric
scenario
80in50 electric
scenario

n/a




Assume 4x LDV
value
                   2050 Portrait                       Block DEP3             2005

Minimum drivers   Baseline drivers   Maximum drivers   Normalized indices     Data



                                                       Households per
    13.14              18.19              25.77        capita                  0.33

                                                       Floorspace per
     8295             10149              12969         capita, ft2            166.16

                                                       Industrial shipments
                                                       per capita, thousand
     726               1914               3561         2001$                  16.11
                                                       Gross State Product
                                                       per capita, thousand
     2349              4987               7683         2000$                  40.25

    44.77              54.78               70          n/a                     1.00
                   2050 Portrait                       Block DN3              2005

Minimum drivers   Baseline drivers   Maximum drivers   Normalized indices     Data


                                                       Households per
    13.14              18.19              25.77        capita                  0.33

                                                       Floorspace per
     8295             10149              12969         capita, ft2            166.16

                                                       Industrial shipments
                                                       per capita, thousand
     726               1914               3561         2001$                  16.11
                                                       Gross State Product
                                                       per capita, thousand
     2349              4987               7683         2000$                  40.25

    44.77              54.78               70          n/a                      1




                   2050 Portrait

Minimum drivers   Baseline drivers   Maximum drivers
10.47   37.77   68.26
 9.69    3.88    6.95
 9.61    9.80    6.73

29.76   51.45   81.94


2349    4987    7683


2349    4987    7683
                   2050 Portrait                       Block DEP4

Minimum drivers   Baseline drivers   Maximum drivers   Energy intensities



                                                       Residential intensity,
     0.29              0.33               0.37         W/household/yr

                                                       Commercial
    185.28            185.27             185.27        intensity, W/ft2


                                                       Industrial intensity,
    16.22              34.94              50.87        W/$1000 shipment
                                                       Agricultural
                                                       intensity, W/$1000
    52.47              91.04             109.76        GSP
                                                       Other intensity,
     1.00              1.00               1.00         W/capita
                   2050 Portrait

Minimum drivers   Baseline drivers   Maximum drivers



     0.29              0.33               0.37


    185.28            185.27             185.27



    16.22              34.94              50.87


    52.47              91.04             109.76

      1                  1                 1
2005                         2050 Portrait

Data    High efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Low efficiency

                                                 (not used)


1,728       1,051               1,553               1,861


3.22         2.25                3.01               3.24



15.13        7.67                8.66               9.62


3.13         1.32                1.32               1.32

61.01       72.15               72.11               72.14
Block DE5                 2005                           2050 Portrait
Intensity factor
relative to 2005          Data      High efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Low efficiency
(for reference only;
not used in calcs)
Residential intensity
factor:
- Single-family
households               #DIV/0!       #DIV/0!             #DIV/0!             #DIV/0!
- Multi-family
households                #DIV/0!      #DIV/0!             #DIV/0!             #DIV/0!
- Total                  100.00%       60.84%              81.99%             107.73%
Commercial
intensity factor         100.00%       69.79%              73.97%             100.68%
Industrial intensity
factor                   100.00%       50.75%              57.26%              63.58%
Agricultural intensity
factor                   100.00%       42.27%              42.25%              42.26%
Other intensity
factor                   100.00%      118.15%              118.16%            118.16%




Block DEP5                2005                           2050 Portrait
Intensity factor
relative to 2005          Data      High efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Low efficiency
(for reference only;
not used in calcs)

Residential intensity
factor                   100.00%       60.82%              89.87%             107.72%

Commercial
intensity factor         100.00%       69.80%              93.35%             100.70%


Industrial intensity
factor                   100.00%       50.71%              57.25%              63.59%

Agricultural intensity
factor                   100.00%       42.34%              42.32%              42.29%
Other intensity
factor                   100.00%      118.25%              118.18%            118.24%
Block DN5                 2005                          2050 Portrait
Intensity factor
relative to 2005          Data     High efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Low efficiency
(for reference only;
not used in calcs)
Residential intensity
factor                   100.00%      60.69%              84.38%              49.64%

Commercial
intensity factor         100.00%      79.83%              91.11%              26.09%


Industrial intensity
factor                   100.00%      37.38%              46.08%              26.67%

Agricultural intensity
factor                   100.00%      31.42%              31.40%              3.32%
Other intensity
factor                   100.00%      77.16%              77.18%              7.44%




Block DT6                 2005                          2050 Portrait
Fuel economy
relative to 2005          Data     High efficiency   Moderate efficiency   Low efficiency


(for reference only;
not used in calcs)
Light-duty vehicles
- Conventional
gasoline engine        100.00%   51.12%   84.65%   0.00%
- Gasoline hybrid      100.00%   43.35%   73.12%   0.00%
- Diesel               100.00%   42.97%   76.82%   0.00%
- Average light-duty
vehicles               100.00%   41.49%   79.24%   87.39%


Heavy-duty vehicles    100.00%   77.92%   80.00%   100.00%


Airplanes              100.00%   51.30%   66.34%   98.41%
Case summaries

Efficiency
reductions             Overall goal:           0.9                 Electricity


                                        Conventional uses      Converted heat in
Description               Case         in buildings/industry   buildings/industry
High electrification       A                     0.9                  82%

High hydrogen               B                  0.9                   82%
Conventional HC
fuels                       C                  0.9                    n/a
Most likely - med
effic                      ML                  0.4                   27%
Most likely - high
effic.                     ML                  0.8                   76%
Most likely- med
effic, high H2           ML-HH                 0.4                   27%
                                                                     Hydrogen

                     Efficiency reduction Efficiency reduction
    Converted          of heating over     of transport over     Converted heat in
  transportation         conventional         conventional       buildings/industry
       0%                    0.45                 90%                   n/a

       n/a                  45%                   n/a                  88%

       n/a                   n/a                  n/a                   n/a

Transport subtotal          0.18               #VALUE!                 25%

       0%                   18%                  80%                   75%

     #REF!                  18%                 #REF!                  25%
                 Efficiency reduction Efficiency reduction
  Converted        of heating over     of transport over
transportation       conventional         conventional     Notes
     n/a                  n/a                  n/a
                                                           H2 industrial heating
     0%                   0.2                 90%          only

     n/a                 n/a                  n/a

  #DIV/0!                0.2                #DIV/0!

  #DIV/0!               20%                 #DIV/0!

   #REF!                20%                 #REF!
Main summary


                                        Electricity    Hydrogen
Electricity                             dominant       dominant

GWh/yr               2005               2050 BAU-E     2050 BAU-H
Conventional uses   271,264               466,956        466,956
Building heat          0                  188,213        188,213
Industrial heat        0                  297,309        148,655
Transportation         0                  208,657           0
Subtotal            271,264              1,161,136       803,824


TBtu/yr
Conventional uses     926                  1,593         1,593
Building heat          0                    642           642
Industrial heat        0                   1,014          507
Transportation         0                    712            0
Subtotal              926                  3,962         2,743

Conventional                             Electricity    Hydrogen
gaseous fuels          0                 dominant       dominant
million therms/yr    2005               2050 BAU-E     2050 BAU-H
Building heat        7,447                   0              0
Industrial heat      6,785                   0              0
Transportation         0                     0              0
Subtotal            14,232                   0              0

Conventional                             Electricity    Hydrogen
liquid fuels           0                 dominant       dominant
Mgge/yr              2005               2050 BAU-E     2050 BAU-H
Building heat          0                     0              0
Industrial heat      2,340                   0              0
Transportation      25,002                 14,503        14,503
Subtotal            27,342                 14,503        14,503

Conventional HC                          Electricity    Hydrogen
fuels                   0                dominant       dominant
TBtu/yr               2005              2050 BAU-E     2050 BAU-H
Building heat          745                   0              0
Industrial heat        949                   0              0
Transportation       2,885                 1,674          1,674
Subtotal             4,578                 1,674          1,674
                    effic of electric
                          transport:      21.11%
Hydrogen                0                Electricity    Hydrogen
TBtu/yr               2005              2050 BAU-E     2050 BAU-H
Building heat           0                    0              0
Industrial heat         0                    0            1,637
Transportation          0                    0             990
Subtotal                0                    0            2,627
Totals                  0      Electricity    Hydrogen
TBtu/yr               2005    2050 BAU-E     2050 BAU-H
Conventional uses      926       1,593          1,593
Building heat          745        642            642
Industrial heat        949       1,014          2,145
Transportation        2,885      2,386          2,663
Total                 5,504      5,635          7,044
Totals by carrier
Electricity           926        3,962         2,743
Conventional HC
fuels                 4,578      1,674         1,674
Hydrogen                0          0           2,627
Total                 5,504      5,635         7,044


For chart:
TBtu/yr               2005    2050 BAU-E     2050 BAU-H
Conventional uses -
electricity           926        1,593         1,593
Building heat -
electricity            0          642           642
Industrial heat -
electricity            0         1,014          507
Transportation -
electricity            0          712            0
Building heat -
conventional HC
fuels                 745          0             0
Industrial heat -
conventional HC
fuels                 949          0             0
Transportation -
conventional HC
fuels                 2,885      1,674         1,674
Building heat -
hydrogen               0           0             0
Industrial heat -
hydrogen               0           0           1,637
Transportation -
hydrogen               0           0            990
                                                 Baseline high
Conventional fuels                               electrification
                     Electricity -
   2050 BAU-C        GWh/yr              2005       2050 A
     466,956         Residential        84,781      265,632
        0            Commercial         96,381      214,829
        0            Industrial         53,866      408,628
        0            Ag & other         36,236       63,389
     466,956         Transportation        0        208,657
                     Subtotal          271,264     1,161,136
                     Conventional HC
                     fuels - TBtu/yr                 2050 A
      1,593          Residential                      0.00
        0            Commercial                       0.00
        0            Industrial                       0.00
        0            Ag & other                       0.00
      1,593          Transportation                 1,673.67
                     Subtotal                       1,673.67

Conventional fuels
  2050 BAU-C
     11,676
     15,907
        0
     27,583


Conventional fuels
  2050 BAU-C
        0
      4,679
     43,728
     48,407


Conventional fuels
  2050 BAU-C
     1,168
     2,131
     5,046
     8,345


Conventional fuels
  2050 BAU-C
        0
        0
        0
        0
Conventional fuels
  2050 BAU-C
     1,593
     1,168
     2,131
     5,046
     9,938

      1,593

      8,345
        0
      9,938



   2050 BAU-C

      1,593

        0

        0

        0


      1,168


      2,131


      5,046

        0

        0

        0
Extreme efficiency, % reduction from
high electrification    baseline

     2050 1A                           2050 C
      37,127             86%                136,513
      25,792             88%                162,163
      65,188             84%                111,319
       6,865             89%                 56,961
     208,657              0%                   0
     343,630             70%                466,956

     2050 1A                           2050 C                 Total TBtu/yr       Fract
       0.00                                      801                 1,267                25.90%
       0.00                                      327                  880                 17.99%
       0.00                                     2,131                2,511                51.32%
       0.00                                       40                  234                  4.79%
      167.37             90%                    1,674                1,674
      167.37             90%                    4,972                6,565

                                                3298.335721      w/o transport:

                                                                     4,892
                                                             Business As Usual
Scenarios                                      2005              "C" 2050
scenario sheet used:                          BAU-C               BAU-C

Electricity

GWh/yr                                       Demand              Demand
Residential and commercial                   181,162             298,676
- Conventional uses portion                  181,162             298,676
- Additional heating portion                     0                  0
Industry                                      53,866             111,319
- Conventional uses portion                   53,866             111,319
- Additional heating portion                     0                  0
Agriculture/other                             36,236              56,961
Transportation                                   0                  0
- Light-duty vehicles portion                    0                  0
- Other portion                                  0                  0
Total                                        271,264             466,956
portion due to electrification:                                     0

Additional electricity in case          Average NG + oil
where industry remains intact           demand relative to
(applies to some portraits only)   0.30 BAU C:                     0.32

Electricity with median refining             271,264             466,956


Conventional gaseous fuels                                          0%
million therms/yr
Building heat (plus ag/other)                  7,447              11,676
Industrial heat                                6,785              15,907
Transportation                                   0                   0
Subtotal                                      14,232              27,583
Mgge/yr equiv:                                12,332              23,902
TBtu/yr equiv:                                 1,423               2,758
Industrial heat (TBtu/yr equiv)                 679                1,591


Additional NG in case where             Average NG + oil
industry remains intact                 demand relative to
(applies to some portraits only)   1.37 BAU C:                     0.32
NG with median refining                       14,232              27,583
Mgge/yr equiv:                                12,332              23,902
Conventional liquid fuels
Mgge/yr
Building heat (plus ag/other)                    0                   0
Industrial heat                                2,340               4,679
Transportation                                25,002              43,728
- Light-duty vehicles                         14,655              25,469
- Heavy-duty vehicles                          4,000               7,875
- Aviation                                     3,800               6,527
- Bus/rail                                             746                  1,157
- Marine                                              1,801                 2,700
Subtotal                                             27,342                48,407
Subtracted due to international
fueling:                        Ratios used:
- Aviation                              0.4           1,520                 2,611
- Marine                                0.8           1,441                 2,160
Revised liquid fuel total                            24,381                43,637
- Aviation                                            2,280                 3,916
- Marine                                               360                   540
- Transportation                                     22,041                38,957

Liquid + gaseous fuel demand
(Mgge/yr equiv)                                      36,713                67,539


Additional petroleum in case                   Average NG + oil
where industry remains intact                  demand relative to
(applies to some portraits only)       0.90    BAU C:                       0.32
Petroleum with median
refining                                             24,381                43,637

Industrial heat (TBtu/yr equiv)                        270                   540

Hydrogen
Million kg H2/yr
Building heat (plus ag/other)                           0                     0
Industrial heat                                         0                     0
Transportation                                          0                     0
- Light-duty vehicles                                   0                     0
- Heavy-duty vehicles                                   0                     0
- Aviation                                              0                     0
- Bus/rail                                              0                     0
Subtotal                                                0                     0
Subtotal (TBtu/yr)                                                  0                    0

Totals
TBtu/yr
Buildings (plus ag/other)                             1,486                 2,381
Industry                                              1,132                 2,511
Transportation                                        2,544                 4,496
Total                                                 5,162                 9,387

Transport efficiency
summary
                                                      2005              2050 Realistic
                                                       ICE                   ICE
LDV                                                   23.30                 58.25
HDV                                                    6.00                  8.70
Air                                                   54.08                  115
Bus                                                   31.00                   n/a
Passenger rail                                        40.71                   n/a
Freight rail                                       275           n/a


TABLE FOR REPORT
                                                                         Demand Scenario and Year
Sector                  Energy Carrier   Units           Historical 2005
Residential             Electricity      GWh/yr                       84,781
                        Gaseous fuel     TBtu/yr                         525
Commercial              Electricity      GWh/yr                       96,381
                        Gaseous fuel     TBtu/yr                         184

Industrial              Electricity      GWh/yr                         53,866

                        Gaseous fuel     TBtu/yr                           679

                        Liquid fuel      Mgge/yr                         2,340


Agriculture and Other   Electricity      GWh/yr                         36,236
                        Gaseous fuel     TBtu/yr                            36

Transport (see below)   Electricity      GWh/yr                             0

                        Liquid fuel      Mgge/yr                        22,041




GRAND TOTAL             Electricity      GWh/yr                        271,264

                        Gaseous fuel     TBtu/yr                       1,423
                                                         =(R[-10]C+{})+R[-
                        Liquid fuel      Mgge/yr         5]C

Transport breakdown:
Light-Duty Vehicles     Electricity      GWh/yr                              0
                        Liquid fuel      Mgge/yr                        14,655
Heavy-Duty Vehicles     Electricity      GWh/yr                              0
                        Liquid fuel      Mgge/yr                         4,000
Airplanes               Liquid fuel      Mgge/yr                         2,280
                        (Full demand)    Mgge/yr                         3,800
Buses                   Electricity      GWh/yr                              0
                        Liquid fuel      Mgge/yr                           625
Passenger Rail          Electricity      GWh/yr                              0
                        Liquid fuel      Mgge/yr                            88
Freight Rail            Electricity      GWh/yr                              0
                        Liquid fuel      Mgge/yr                            33
Marine                  Liquid fuel      Mgge/yr                           360
                        (Full demand)    Mgge/yr                         1,801
Others:

Electricity
Gaseous fuel
                                         Base Case (BAU w/
     BAU with             BAU with
                                          electrification &
electrification only   efficiency only
                                             efficiency)
        EE                 BAU-C                  EE


                                                              Change relative to   Change relative to
     Demand               Demand              Demand          business as usual         2005
     425,925              179,206             268,280               -10%                 48%
     298,676              179,206             179,206               -40%                 -1%
     127,249                 0                 89,075                N/A                 N/A
     111,319              108,707             108,707                -2%                102%
        0                 108,707              84,927               -24%                 58%
     111,319                 0                 23,780                N/A                 N/A
      61,461               34,177              37,327               -34%                  3%
      88,936                 0                 88,936                N/A                 N/A
      73,105                 0                 73,105                N/A                 N/A
      15,831                 0                 15,831                N/A                 N/A
     687,641              322,089             503,249                 8%                 86%
     327,504                 0                201,790



                           10,233              10,233

                          332,082             513,242               10%                  89%


       48%                  0%                  40%

       3,503                7,006              2,102                -82%                 -72%
      15,907                5,921              5,921                -63%                 -13%
         0                    0                  0                   N/A                  N/A
      19,410               12,926              8,022                -71%                 -44%
      16,820               11,201              6,952
       1,941                1,293               802
       1,591                 592                592




                            2,552               2,552                16%
                           15,419              10,515               -62%                 -26%
                           13,361              9,112


         0                    0                   0                  N/A                  N/A
       4,679                2,487               2,487               -47%                   6%
      29,947               21,466              14,848               -66%                 -41%
      14,263               10,188               5,705               -78%                 -61%
       6,458                5,434               4,456               -43%                  11%
       6,527                3,068               3,068               -53%                 -19%
        0            1,157                   0            -100%             -100%
      2,700          1,620                 1,620           -40%              -10%
     34,627         23,953                17,335           -64%              -37%


      2,611          1,227                 1,227
      2,160          1,296                 1,296
     29,856         21,430                14,812           -66%             -39%
      3,916          1,841                 1,841
       540            324                   324
     25,177         18,943                12,325


     46,676         32,631                21,764




      1,325          704                      704          15%

                    22,118               15,500.3          -64%             -36%

       540        286.9977717                 287



                      0
                      0
                      0
                      0
                      0
                      0
                      0
              0       0                             0
              0                 0                   0



      2,013          1,429                1,253            -47%             -16%
      2,511          1,250                1,250            -50%              10%
      3,209          2,186                1,726            -62%             -32%
      7,733          4,865                4,229            -55%             -18%




                    H2 FCV                                   EV
mpgge                78.53          mi/kgH2                 0.28      kWh/mi
mpgge                25.00          mi/kgH2             1.024903194   kWh/mi
seat-mpgge            n/a                                    n/a
seat-mpgge           70.00          seat-mi/kgH2            0.16      kWh/seat-mi
seat-mpgge            n/a                                   0.27      kWh/seat-mi
   ton-mpgge                  n/a                                         0.042           kWh/ton-mi



Demand Scenario and Year                                      Change from BAU C to 1A
   BAU Case C 2050 Case E1 2050       Efficiency                 Electrification      Net
             136,513          145,176                       -40%                  77%                       6%
                 801              144                       -40%                 -70%                     -82%
             162,163          123,104                       -40%                  27%                     -24%
                 327               59                       -40%                 -70%                     -82%

               111,319              108,707                 -24%                   28%                    -2%

                 1,591                  592                 -58%                   -12%                   -63%

                 4,679                2,487                 -39%                   -13%                   -47%


                56,961               37,327                 -40%                     9%                   -34%
                    40                    7                 -40%                   -70%                   -82%

                    0                88,936 N/A                    N/A                    N/A

                38,957               12,325                 -51%                   -35%                   -68%




               466,956              503,249                 -36%                   69%                     8%

                 2,758                802                   -50%                   -42%                   -71%
   =(R[-10]C+{})+R[-   =(R[-10]C+{})+R[-
   5]C                 5]C                        #VALUE!                #VALUE!                #VALUE!


                     0               73,105                    0 n/A                      n/A
                25,469                5,705                 -60%                   -44%                   -78%
                     0                8,717                    0 n/A                      n/A
                 7,875                4,456                 -31%                   -18%                   -43%
                 3,916                1,841                 -53%                     0%                   -53%
                 6,527                3,068
                     0                4,645                    0 n/A                      n/A
                   937                    0                   0%                  -100%                -100%
                     0                1,449                    0 n/A                      n/A
                   132                    0                   0%                  -100%                -100%
                     0                1,019                    0 n/A                      n/A
                    88                    0                   0%                  -100%                -100%
                   540                  324                 -40%                     0%                 -40%
                 2,700                1,620


               355,637              305,607
1,168   210
Behavior Change
Case
       EE


                  Change relative to   Change relative to   Change relative to
    Demand        realistic case       business as usual         2005
    241,452                -10%              -19%                 33%
    114,203                -36%              -62%                -37%
    127,249                 43%               N/A                 N/A
     97,836                -10%              -12%                 82%
     97,836                 15%              -12%                 82%
        0                 -100%               N/A                 N/A
     35,318                 -5%              -38%                 -3%
     92,842                  4%               N/A                 N/A
     65,795                -10%               N/A                 N/A
     27,047                 71%               N/A                 N/A
    467,447                 -7%               0%                  72%
    220,091



      9,210                                                                      0.23

     475,999


      47%

     1,895               -10%                -84%                 -75%
     5,329               -10%                -67%                 -21%
       0                  N/A                 N/A                  N/A
     7,223               -10%                -74%                 -49%
     6,259
      722
      533




     2,297                                                                       0.23
     9,356
     8,108


        0                 N/A                 N/A                  N/A
      2,238              -10%                -52%                  -4%
     13,364              -10%                -69%                 -47%
      5,135              -10%                -80%                 -65%
      4,010              -10%                -49%                   0%
      2,761              -10%                -58%                 -27%
   0          N/A   -100%   -100%
 1,458       -10%    -46%    -19%
15,602       -10%    -68%    -43%


 1,104
 1,166
13,331       -10%   -69%    -45%
 1,657
  292
11,093


19,591




 634                                        0.23

13,920




         0
         0


                                    % of total:
1,134        -10%   -52%    -24%                   29%
1,125        -10%   -55%     -1%                   29%
1,597         -7%   -64%    -37%                   41%
3,856         -9%   -59%    -25%
Table 3.18. Demand comparison for hydrogen
                                                                Change from E1 to Change from BAU
                        Case E1             Case H1             H1                C to H1




Industrial

Electricity (GWh/yr)              108,707             108,707                  0%                    -2%
Gaseous fuel
(TBtu/yr)                            592                 345                  -42%                   -78%

Liquid fuel (Mgge/yr)               2,487               2,487                  0%                    -47%

Hydrogen (GgH2/yr)                     0                3,162 N/A                    N/A

Transportation

Electricity (GWh/yr)               88,936              43,380                 -51%         #DIV/0!

Liquid fuel (Mgge/yr)              12,325               8,862                 -28%                   -77%

Hydrogen (GgH2/yr)                     0                4,816 N/A                    N/A
TOTAL

Electricity (GWh/yr)              503,249             457,693                 -9%                    -2%
Gaseous fuel
(TBtu/yr)                             802                555                  -31%                   -80%
                      =(R[-10]C+{})+R[-
Liquid fuel (Mgge/yr) 5]C                              11,349       #VALUE!                #VALUE!

Hydrogen (GgH2/yr)                                      7,979 N/A                    N/A




Others

Electricity (GWh/yr)              305,607             305,607                  0%                    -14%
Gaseous fuel
(TBtu/yr)      210   210   0%   -82%
Hydrogen Case
EEH


                Change relative to   Change relative to   Change relative to   Change from
    Demand      realistic case       business as usual         2005              realistic
    268,280                0%              -10%                 48%
    179,206                0%              -40%                 -1%
     89,075                0%               N/A                 N/A
    108,707                0%               -2%                102%
     84,927                0%              -24%                 58%
     23,780                0%               N/A                 N/A
     37,327                0%              -34%                  3%
     43,380              -51%               N/A                 N/A
     36,553              -50%               N/A                 N/A
      6,827              -57%               N/A                 N/A
    457,693               -9%               -2%                 69%              -45,556
    156,234                                                                      351,807



     7,491

    464,353            -10%                 -1%                 71%


      34%

     2,102              0%                 -82%                 -72%
     3,452             -42%                -78%                 -49%
       0                N/A                 N/A                  N/A
     5,554             -31%                -80%                 -61%             -2,469
     4,812
      555
      345




     1,089              18%                 7%
     6,522             -38%                -76%                 -54%
     5,652


        0               N/A                 N/A                  N/A
      2,487             0%                 -47%                   6%
     11,385            -23%                -74%                 -54%
      2,241            -61%                -91%                 -85%
      4,456             0%                 -43%                  11%
      3,068             0%                 -53%                 -19%
   0           N/A   -100%   -100%
 1,620         0%     -40%    -10%
13,872        -20%    -71%    -49%


 1,227
 1,296
11,349        -23%   -74%    -53%           -3,464
 1,841
  324
 8,862


16,161




 516          21%    11%

11,807        -24%   -73%    -52%




  0           N/A     N/A     N/A
3,162         N/A     N/A     N/A
4,816         N/A     N/A     N/A
4,232         N/A     N/A     N/A
 170          N/A     N/A     N/A
  0           N/A     N/A     N/A
 415          N/A     N/A     N/A
7,979         N/A     N/A     N/A            7,979
906.9429254


                                     % of total:
1,253         0%     -47%    -16%                    29%
1,363         9%     -46%     20%                    31%
1,718         0%     -62%    -32%                    40%
4,334         2%     -54%    -16%
                    Hydrogen plus
                    Behavior Change
                    EEH



Change in TBtu/yr       Demand
                        241,452
                        114,203
                        127,249
                         97,836
                         97,836
                            0
                         35,318
                         42,086
                         32,897
                          9,188
      -155              416,691
                        169,335



                          6,742




                          41%

                         1,895
                         3,107
                           0
      -247               5,001
                         4,334
                          500
                          311




                          980




                            0
                          2,238
                         10,246
                          2,017
                          4,010
                          2,761
          0
        1,458
       12,484


        1,104
        1,166
-400   10,214
        1,657
         292
        7,975


       14,548




        464




         0
       2,846
       5,206
       3,808
        153
         0
       1,244
907    8,052
       915.2569034



       1,134
       1,226
       1,656
       4,016
Demand case summaries                                      2050

                                                       BAU Case C
Rounded figures                     2005           (conventional fuels)

Electricity (TWh/yr)                 271                    467
Gaseous HC fuel
(Gtherms/yr)                         14.2                  27.6

Gaseous HC fuel (Ggge/yr)            12.3                  23.9
Liquid HC fuel (Ggge/yr)             27.0                  48.0
Hydrogen (TgH2/yr, about
same as Ggge/yr)                      0.0                   0.0
Hydrogen (TBtu/yr)                     0                     0


                                                   Gaseous HC fuel
Realistic case              Electricity (GWh/yr)   (million therms/yr)
Residential                                 85%                       15%
Commercial                                  93%                        7%
Industrial                                  30%                      47%
Agricultural                                97%                        3%
Other                                       97%                        3%
Light-duty vehicles                         44%                        0%
Heavy-duty vehicles                         18%                        0%
Airplanes                                     0%                       0%
Bus                                        100%                        0%
Rail-passenger                             100%                        0%
Rail-freight                               100%                        0%
Marine                                        0%                       0%


Hydrogen case               Electricity            Gaseous HC fuel
Residential                                  85%                     15%
Commercial                                   93%                      7%
Industrial                                   27%                     25%
Agricultural                                 97%                      3%
Other                                        97%                      3%
Light-duty vehicles                          22%                      0%
Heavy-duty vehicles                           9%                      0%
Airplanes                                     0%                      0%
Bus                                           0%                      0%
Rail-passenger                              100%                      0%
Rail-freight                                100%                      0%
Marine                                        0%                      0%
Total

                            Stress test change
Realistic+behavior (B1)     from BAU             Change from 1A
Sector                      Total                Per capita          VMT (transport)
Residential                                 -0.2                -0.1
Commercial                               -0.2   -0.1
                      -30% (10-15% each
                      for consumer
                      demand & industrial
Industrial            design)                   -0.1
Agricultural/other    (n/a)                     -0.1
                      (n/a -- but I estimate
                      combo of smaller,
                      lighter, fewer cars
                      driven less miles
                      could add up to 40-
Light duty vehicles   50%)                        0    -0.1
Heavy-duty vehicles                      -0.2     0    -0.1
Airplanes                                -0.2     0    -0.1
Bus                   (n/a)                       0       2
Rail-passenger        (n/a)                       0       2
                      (assume same as
Rail-freight          HDV)                        0    -0.1
                      (assume same as
Marine                HDV)                        0    -0.1
        2050                    2050              2050 with refining      2050 with refining   2050 with refining

   BAU Case H              BAU Case E                                      Efficiency Only      Base Case with
 (max hydrogen)         (max electrification)      Base Case (EE)                 (Ef)          Behavior (EEB)

        804                     1161                     513                       332                476

        0.0                        0.0                   10.5                      15.4               9.4

         0.0                     0.0                      9.1                      13.4               8.1
        14.5                    14.5                     15.5                      22.1              13.9

        23.1                       0.0                    0.0                      0.0                0.0
        2630                        0                      0                        0                  0


Liquid HC fuel
(Mgge/yr)
                 0%
                 0%
                23%
                 0%
                 0%
                56%
                82%
               100%
                 0%
                 0%
                 0%
               100%

                                                  Hydrogen (Mkg
Liquid HC fuel          Hydrogen                  H2/yr)
                 0%                          0%                       0
                 0%                          0%                       0
                21%                         26%                   3,162
                 0%                          0%                       0
                 0%                          0%                       0
                22%                         56%                   4,232
                82%                          9%                     170
               100%                          0%                       0
                 0%                        100%                     415
                 0%                          0%                       0
                 0%                          0%                       0
               100%                          0%                       0
                                                                  7,979


                        Total VMT/capita
Total                   No behavior               With behavior           Change
                 -0.1
 -0.1



 -0.1
 -0.1




-10%       10,832         9,749         -1,083
-10% N/A            N/A           N/A
-10%        6,444         5,800          -644
200%          530         1,590         1,060
200%           98           294           196

-10% N/A            N/A           N/A

-10% N/A            N/A           N/A
2050 with refining

Base Case with
Hydrogen (EEH)

       464

       6.5

       5.7
      11.8

        8
       910
GHG emissions summary calculations




                                                                     1990
Portrait parameters
Biomass
Fraction of biomass imported (as
biofuel)                                   50.0%
Utilization ratios of domestic
biomass                                                  Old values:
  Biofuel                                    0%                                     90%
  Biogas                                    73%                                     10%
  Electricity                               27%                                      0%
Biofuel cogen ratios:                                    Old values:
  Biogas from wastewater                     0%                                     10%
  Electricity from lignin                    0%                                     75%
Biomass utilization (sums to >1 due to cogen opportunities):
  Biofuel
  Biogas
  Electricity
Biomass supply:
  Total                             mdt/yr
  Domestic (in-state)               mdt/yr
  Imported                          mdt/yr
Breakdown by use (sums to
>100%):
  Biofuel                           mdt/yr
  Biogas                            mdt/yr
  Electricity                       mdt/yr
  Total                             mdt/yr
Fraction biomass/CCS electricity
Utilization:
  Biofuel                           Mgge/yr              Conversion efficiencies:
     Conventional                   Mgge/yr                            80
     Coal/Biomass/CCS               Mgge/yr                           149
  Biogas                            Mgge/yr                           80
                                    Mtherms/yr
  Electricity                       GWh/yr
     Non-CCS biomass                GWh/yr                           1004
     CCS biomass                    GWh/yr                            854
                                                                      672
Total biogas + biofuels             Mgge/yr
Gaseous fuel demand (n/incl.
CCS)                                Mgge/yr
Liquid fuel demand                  Mgge/yr
Biomass for gaseous fuels           Mgge/yr
Biomass for liquid fuels            Mgge/yr
Liquid+gaseous fuel demand          Mgge/yr
Biomass fraction of gaseous fuel
Biomass fraction of liquid fuel
CO2 content (relative to fossil)            20%             % of fossil CO2

Coal/biomass/CCS switch (1 = on)
Electricity mix:
Nuclear fraction
Coal/CCS fraction
NG/CCS fraction

Natural gas load balancing fraction          5.0%
Biomass fraction
Biomass/CCS fraction
Coal/biomass/CCS fraction (in
                                             15.06
progress)                                                   GWh/Mgge
Other renewables                            33.0%
Total fraction (should sum to 100%)
ZELB fraction (doesn't count in above total) 5.0%
Hydrogen production mix:
- fraction electricity
- fraction fossil/CCS

- fraction onsite NG

Total biomass supply (Mgge/yr)
Total biomass supply (mdt/yr)
Total GHG (MtCO2e/yr)

Carbon coefficients
                                    Carbon coefficient
Electricity                         (MMtCO2eq)
Electricity                                                 per GWh
Carbon content of biomass                      0.000160     per GWh
Carbon content of biomass/CCS                 -0.000622     per GWh
Carbon content of coal/CCS                     0.000080     per GWh
Carbon content of NG/CCS                       0.000036     per GWh
Carbon content of NG ramping                   0.000569     per GWh
Carbon content of nuclear
Carbon content of
coal/biomass/CCS                               0.000000 per GWh
Carbon content of other
renewables                                   0.000000 per GWh
Gaseous fuel                        LCA markups:
Gaseous fuel                                     120%
Liquid fuels
Gasoline                                             140%
Diesel                                               140%
Jet fuel                                             140%
Residual/bunker fuel                                 130%
Hydrogen
Overall                                                     MMtCO2eq
- from electricity
- from coal/CCS                            0.001984127 per Mkg H2
- from onsite NG                              0.013655172 per Mkg H2
                                        NG cost                                    0.17
                                                                           0.588235294
                                                                                   1.20
                                                                                   2.04
                                                                                   0.50
                                                                                   1.50
                                                                                   4.04
Total demand by fuel

Simple fuel estimate n/incl. refining
Fuel demand from case
summaries                               Mgge/yr
Electricity demand w/o refining
(from below)                            GWh/yr
Demand for NG/CCS electricity           Mgge/yr
Demand for non-CCS NG
electricity                             Mgge/yr
Total fuel demand                       Mgge/yr

Biomass for liq/gas fuel                Mgge/yr

Remaining fossil fuel demand            Mgge/yr
Demand relative to case
summary (scaling factor for
refining)
Refining rel. to BAU

Electricity demand
Base demand                             GWh/yr            Storage efficiency:
                                        GWh/yr
Change in demand due to storage                                                   75%
                                 GWh/yr
Change in demand due to refining
Change in demand due to
                                 GWh/yr
hydrogen
Total electricity demand         GWh/yr
Equivalent energy                Mgge/yr

Carbon fuels demand
NG/CCS demand from electricity Mtherms/yr
                                Mgge/yr
(NG/CCS demand not included because it already saves 90% of CO2 emissions, so unlikely to use biofuels)
Non-CCS NG demand from
                                Mtherms/yr
electricity
Additional NG from refining
industry
NG demand for hydrogen          Mtherms/yr
Direct NG fuel demand (incl.
                                Mtherms/yr
refining)


                                        Mtherms/yr
Total natural gas demand w/o CCS
Total natural gas demand incl.
                                    Mtherms/yr
CCS
Total gaseous fuels demand (incl.
                                    Mgge/yr
refining)


Additional oil from refining industry
Total liquid fuels demand (incl.
                                      Mgge/yr
refining)

Total fuel demand (gas + liq) -
                                     Mgge/yr
n/incl. NG/CCS
Total fuel demand (gas + liq) - with
                                     Mgge/yr
NG/CCS

Hydrogen demand                     GgH2/yr
                                    Mgge/yr

GHG inventory

Electricity                         MtCO2/yr       90.50

Gaseous fuel (natural gas):
- Building heat (plus ag/other)     MtCO2/yr
- Industrial heat                   MtCO2/yr
- Additional industrial heat from
refining industry (OMITTED TO
AVOID DOUBLE-COUNTING
EMISSIONS)                          MtCO2/yr
- Transportation                    MtCO2/yr
- Subtotal                          MtCO2/yr

Liquid fuels:
- Building heat (plus ag/other)     MtCO2/yr
- Industrial heat                   MtCO2/yr
- Additional industrial heat from
refining industry (OMITTED TO
AVOID DOUBLE-COUNTING
EMISSIONS)                          MtCO2/yr
- Light-duty vehicles               MtCO2/yr
- Heavy-duty vehicles               MtCO2/yr
- Aviation                          MtCO2/yr
- Bus/rail                          MtCO2/yr
- Marine                            MtCO2/yr
Subtracted due to exclusion from
CARB inventory:                     Ratios used:
- Aviation                                  0.92
- Marine                                    0.75
Transportation subtotal             MtCO2/yr
- Liquid fuel subtotal              MtCO2/yr
Hydrogen                            MtCO2/yr
TOTAL                               MtCO2/yr       386.41
Non-energy emissions                    MtCO2/yr                   40.18
Grand total                             MtCO2/yr                  426.59

Load balancing contribution to
GHG emissions
Electricity - best GHG estimate         MtCO2/yr                      62

GHG breakdown:
Electricity
  Biomass w/o CCS
  Biomass w/ CCS
  Other
Fuels
  Biogas
  Fossil gas
  Biofuel
  Fossil fuels--all but bunker
  Fossil fuels-bunker
  Total bio
  Total fossil
Net

Biofuel requirements
Gaseous fuel for electricity (n/incl.
CCS)                                    Mgge/yr
Gaseous fuel for hydrogen               Mgge/yr
Gaseous fuel biomass total              Mgge/yr
Liquid fuel                             Mgge/yr
Total                                   Mgge/yr
Equivalent biomass:
Gaseous fuels - conventional
biomass

Liquid fuels - conventional biomass
Fuels - coal/biomass/CCS
Fuels
Electricity - biomass w/o CCS
Electricity - biomass w/ CCS
Electricity - total
Total
Total liquid fuel equivalent

Biomass fraction of non-CCS
demand

CO2 storage requirements

Coal/CCS                                            720   MtCO2/GWh
NG/CCS                                              324   MtCO2/GWh
Biomass/CCS                                         800   MtCO2/GWh
Coal/Biomass/CCS                                   1650   MtCO2/GWh
Total CO2 stored
                             Business As
                             Usual "C" 2050     Take 1 (Added to BAU)



                             Business As Usual     BAU with
           2005       2020         2050        electrification only



                                   50.0%              50.0%


                                    0.0%               0.0%
                                   50.0%              50.0%
                                   50.0%              50.0%




                                   50.0%              50.0%
                                   25.0%              25.0%
                                   25.0%              25.0%

                                     50                 50
                                     25                 25
                                     25                 25


                                     25                 25
                                     13                 13
                                     13                 13
                                     50                 50


                                   2000                2000
Mgge/mdt                            2000               2000
Mgge/mdt                              0                  0
Mgge/mdt                            1000               1000
                                    1154               1154
                                   12456              12456
dry metric tons/GWh                12456              12456
dry metric tons/GWh                   0                  0
dry metric tons/GWh
                                   3,000               3,000

                                  42,311              43,928
                                  43,637              29,856
                                   1,000               1,000
                                   2,000               2,000
                                  85,948              73,784
                                   2.4%                2.3%
                                              4.6%        6.7%
                                              20.0%       20.0%




                                              40.0%       40.0%
                                              2.7%        1.8%
                                              0.0%        0.0%



                                              42.7%       41.8%
                                               0.0%        0.0%




                                               3000        3000
                                                 50          50
                                                830         676




                                              0.000323    0.000323
                                              0.000160    0.000160
                                             -0.000622   -0.000622
                                              0.000080    0.000080
                                              0.000036    0.000036
                                              0.000558    0.000558
                                              0.000000    0.000000

                                             0.000000    0.000000

                                             0.000000    0.000000

per million therms                           0.008324    0.008330

per Mgge                                     0.011011    0.010803
per Mgge                                     0.011363    0.011149
per Mgge                                     0.011004    0.010796
per Mgge                                     0.011375    0.011163

Efficiency:                Chris Yang data
                     67.8% Electrolysis
                     63.0% Coal/CCS
                   72.5% Onsite NG
MMBTU/kg H2              C. Yang (from H2A)
kg H2/therm
$/therm                  EIA, 2010
$/kg H2
production costs
delivery
total $/kg H2




                                              67,539    46,676

                                              466,956   687,641
                                                 0         0

                                              18,408    27,108
                                              85,948    73,784

                                               3,000     3,000

                                              82,948    70,784


                                               123%      152%
                                               100%      85%


                                              466,956   687,641

                                                0         0




                                              466,956   687,641
                                               13,806    20,331


                                                0         0
                                                0         0
                                              21243     31283

                                                 0         0



                                              27,583    19,410


                                              48827     50693
                  48827    50693


                  42,311   43,928


                    0      2,010


                  43,637   29,856


                  85,948   73,784

                  85,948   73,784

                    0        0




87.72    110.4    151.00   222.37


                   97.19    29.18
                  132.41   132.51



                   0.00     0.00
                   0.00     0.00
                  229.60   161.69


                   0.00     0.00
                  53.23    52.23



                    0.00    22.44
                  280.44   154.08
                   89.48    71.99
                   71.83    70.47
                   13.15     0.00
                   30.71    30.13


                   66.08    64.83
                   23.03    22.60
                  396.49   239.25
                  449.72   291.48

414.22   414.90   830.33   675.54
           58.35   91.90    116.97   116.97
          472.57   506.80   947.29   792.50



                             104      154




                             435      617

                            1,000    1,000
                            2,000    2,000
                            3,000    3,000


mdt/yr                       13        13

mdt/yr                       25       25
mdt/yr                        0        0
mdt/yr                       38       38
mdt/yr                       13       13
mdt/yr                        0        0
mdt/yr                       13       13
mdt/yr                       50       50
Mgge/yr                     4,000    4,000


                             5%       5%




                              0        0
                              0        0
                              0        0
                              0        0
0   0
1 (Added to BAU)                                                        Take 2


                                 BAU with low-
                 BAU with       carbon electricity    BAU with low-        Efficiency +     Efficiency + low-
              efficiency only         only           carbon fuel only     Electrification   carbon electricity



                   50.0%             30.0%               50.0%               50.0%               30.0%


                    0.0%              0.0%                0.0%                0.0%                0.0%
                   50.0%             30.0%               73.0%               50.0%               30.0%
                   50.0%             70.0%               27.0%               50.0%               70.0%




                   50.0%             30.0%               50.0%               50.0%               30.0%
                   25.0%             21.0%               36.5%               25.0%               21.0%
                   25.0%             49.0%               13.5%               25.0%               49.0%

                    50                 50                 188                    50                50
                    25                 35                  94                    25                35
                    25                 15                  94                    25                15


                    25                 15                   94                   25                15
                    13                 11                   69                   13                11
                    13                 25                   25                   13                25
                    50                 50                  188                   50                50


                    2000              1200                7520                2000                1200
                    2000              1200                7520                2000                1200
                      0                 0                   0                   0                   0
                    1000               840                5490                1000                 840
                    1154               969                6335                1154                 969
                   12456             24414               25291               12456               24414
                   12456             24414               25291               12456               24414
                      0                 0                   0                   0                   0

                   3,000             2,040               13,010               3,000              2,040

                   23,899            26,242              42,311              30,714              12,815
                   21,430            43,637              43,637              16,062              21,430
                    1,000              840                5,490               1,000                840
                    2,000             1,200               7,520               2,000               1,200
                   45,329            69,879              85,948              46,776              34,245
                    4.2%              3.2%               13.0%                3.3%                6.6%
 9.3%         2.7%       17.2%       12.5%       5.6%
 20.0%       20.0%       20.0%       20.0%       20.0%



             31.0%                               31.0%
              0.0%                                0.0%
             31.0%                               31.0%

 40.0%        5.0%       40.0%       40.0%        5.0%
 3.9%         5.1%        5.4%        2.5%        7.5%
 0.0%         0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%


              28.2%                               28.2%
 43.9%       100.3%      45.4%       42.5%       102.6%
  0.0%         5.0%       0.0%        0.0%         5.0%




  3000        2040       13010        3000        2040
    50          50        188           50          50
   423         707        759          368         341




 0.000323    0.000047    0.000323    0.000323    0.000050
 0.000160    0.000160    0.000160    0.000160    0.000160
-0.000622   -0.000622   -0.000622   -0.000622   -0.000622
 0.000080    0.000080    0.000080    0.000080    0.000080
 0.000036    0.000036    0.000036    0.000036    0.000036
 0.000549    0.000554    0.000510    0.000554    0.000539
 0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000

0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000

0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000

0.008195    0.008265    0.007573    0.008261    0.008027

0.010544    0.011191    0.009768    0.010238    0.010911
0.010882    0.011549    0.010081    0.010565    0.011260
0.010538    0.011184    0.009762    0.010231    0.010904
0.010899    0.011558    0.010108    0.010587    0.011273
32,631    67,539    67,539    21,764    32,631

322,089   474,739   466,956   503,249   327,457
   0       9,258       0         0       6,386

12,697     2,339    18,408    19,839     1,614
45,329    79,137    85,948    41,603    40,631

 3,000     2,040    13,010     3,000     2,040

42,329    77,097    72,938    38,603    38,591


 130%      114%      108%      177%      118%
 51%       93%       88%       47%       47%


322,089   466,956   466,956   503,249   322,089

  0        7,783      0         0        5,368




322,089   474,739   466,956   503,249   327,457
 9,523     14,036    13,806    14,879    9,682


  0       10684       0         0        7369
  0       9258        0         0        6386
14653      2700     21243     22894      1862

 3311        0         0       4527      3019



12,926    27,583    27,583    12,550    12,926


27579     30283     48827     35444     14788
27579    40967    48827    35444    22158


23,899   26,242   42,311   30,714   12,815


 914       0        0      1,249     833


21,430   43,637   43,637   16,062   21,430


45,329   69,879   85,948   46,776   34,245

45,329   79,137   85,948   46,776   40,631

  0        0        0        0        0




104.16   22.35    151.00   162.74   16.38


57.41     96.50    88.42   17.36    56.24
48.52    131.47   120.47   48.91    47.53



 27.13    0.00     0.00    37.40     24.23
  0.00    0.00     0.00     0.00      0.00
105.93   227.97   208.89   66.27    103.77


 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
27.11    54.08    47.30    26.33    28.04



  9.96     0.00     0.00   13.23      9.39
107.42   285.03   248.79   58.41    111.16
 59.13    90.95    79.38   47.08     61.18
 32.33    73.00    63.72   31.39     33.45
 12.59    13.36    11.66    0.00     13.03
 17.65    31.20    27.29   17.15     18.26


 29.74    67.16    58.62    28.88    30.78
 13.24    23.40    20.47    12.86    13.69
186.14   402.98   351.76   112.28   192.61
213.25   457.06   399.06   138.61   220.65

423.33   707.39   758.95   367.62   340.79
116.97   116.97   116.97    8.04    116.97
540.30   824.35   875.92   375.66   457.76



 71       13       95       111       9




 531      75      2,388     646      106

1,000     840      5,490   1,000     840
2,000    1,200     7,520   2,000    1,200
3,000    2,040    13,010   3,000    2,040


 13       11       69       13       11

 25       15        94      25       15
  0        0         0       0        0
 38       26       163      38       26
 13       25        25      13       25
  0        0         0       0        0
 13       25        25      13       25
 50       50       188      50       50
4,000    4,000    15,040   4,000    4,000


 9%       6%       17%      9%       12%




  0         0       0        0         0
  0        48       0        0        33
  0         0       0        0         0
  0         0       0        0         0
0   48   0   0   33
                                                                                  Take 3 (Subtracted from Median)


                    Electrification +                          Low-carbon
Efficiency + low-     low-carbon         Electrification +   electricity + low-    Median without
  carbon fuels         electricity      low-carbon fuels       carbon fuels          efficiency



    50.0%               30.0%                50.0%                50.0%                50.0%


     0.0%                0.0%                 0.0%                 0.0%                 0.0%
    73.0%               30.0%                73.0%                73.0%                73.0%
    27.0%               70.0%                27.0%                27.0%                27.0%




    50.0%               30.0%                50.0%                50.0%                50.0%
    36.5%               21.0%                36.5%                36.5%                36.5%
    13.5%               49.0%                13.5%                13.5%                13.5%

      188                 50                  188                  188                  188
       94                 35                   94                   94                   94
       94                 15                   94                   94                   94


       94                  15                   94                  94                   94
       69                  11                   69                  69                   69
       25                  25                   25                  25                   25
      188                  50                  188                 188                  188


      7520                1200                7520                 7520                 7520
      7520                1200                7520                 7520                 7520
        0                   0                   0                    0                    0
      5490                 840                5490                 5490                 5490
      6335                 969                6335                 6335                 6335
     25291               24414               25291                25291                25291
     25291               24414               25291                25291                25291
        0                   0                   0                    0                    0

    13,010               2,040               13,010              13,010                13,010

    23,899              20,265               43,928               26,242               20,265
    21,430              29,856               29,856               43,637               29,856
     5,490                840                 5,490                5,490                5,490
     7,520               1,200                7,520                7,520                7,520
    45,329              50,121               73,784               69,879               50,121
    23.0%                4.1%                12.5%                20.9%                27.1%
 35.1%       4.0%        25.2%       17.2%       25.2%
 20.0%       20.0%       20.0%       20.0%       20.0%



             31.0%                   31.0%       31.0%
              0.0%                    0.0%        0.0%
             31.0%                   31.0%       31.0%

 40.0%        5.0%       40.0%        5.0%        5.0%
 7.9%         3.5%       3.7%         5.3%        3.6%
 0.0%         0.0%       0.0%         0.0%        0.0%


             28.2%                    28.2%      28.2%
 47.9%       98.6%       43.7%       100.5%      98.8%
  0.0%        5.0%        0.0%         5.0%       5.0%




 13010        2040       13010       13010       13010
  188           50        188         188         188
  355          489        613         613         398




 0.000323    0.000044    0.000323    0.000043    0.000039
 0.000160    0.000160    0.000160    0.000160    0.000160
-0.000622   -0.000622   -0.000622   -0.000622   -0.000622
 0.000080    0.000080    0.000080    0.000080    0.000080
 0.000036    0.000036    0.000036    0.000036    0.000036
 0.000464    0.000550    0.000512    0.000473    0.000445
 0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000

0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000

0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000

0.006866    0.008198    0.007607    0.007011    0.006574

0.008014    0.011066    0.008987    0.009768    0.008987
0.008270    0.011420    0.009274    0.010081    0.009274
0.008009    0.011059    0.008981    0.009762    0.008981
0.008320    0.011431    0.009311    0.010108    0.009311
32,631    46,676    46,676    67,539    46,676

322,089   699,102   687,641   474,739   699,102
   0       13,634      0       9,258     13,634

12,697     3,445    27,108     2,339     3,445
45,329    63,754    73,784    79,137    63,754

13,010     2,040    13,010    13,010    13,010

32,319    61,714    60,775    66,127    50,745


 99%       132%      130%      98%       109%
 39%       74%       73%       80%       61%


322,089   687,641   687,641   466,956   687,641

  0       11,461      0        7,783    11,461




322,089   699,102   687,641   474,739   699,102
 9,523     20,670    20,331    14,036    20,670


  0       15733       0       10684     15733
  0       13634       0       9258      13634
14653      3976     31283      2700      3976

 2528        0         0         0         0



12,926    19,410    19,410    27,583    19,410


27579     23386     50693     30283     23386
27579    39119    50693    40967    39119


23,899   20,265   43,928   26,242   20,265


 698     1,752    1,726      0      1,441


21,430   29,856   29,856   43,637   29,856


45,329   50,121   73,784   69,879   50,121

45,329   63,754   73,784   79,137   63,754

  0        0        0        0        0




104.16   30.92    222.37   20.58    27.41


48.10     28.72    26.65    81.86    23.03
40.65    130.41   121.01   111.53   104.58



17.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
88.75    159.12   147.65   193.39   127.61


 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
20.69    53.49    43.57    47.30    43.57



 5.80     20.03    16.07     0.00    13.42
81.64    157.84   128.18   248.79   128.18
44.94     73.75    59.89    79.38    59.89
24.57     72.19    58.62    63.72    58.62
 9.57      0.00     0.00    11.66     0.00
13.48     30.86    25.14    27.29    25.14


 22.60    66.41    53.93    58.62    53.93
 10.11    23.14    18.85    20.47    18.85
141.48   245.07   199.04   351.76   199.04
162.18   298.56   242.61   399.06   242.61

355.08   488.61   612.63   613.02   397.64
116.97   116.97   116.97   116.97    8.04
472.05   605.57   729.60   729.99   405.67



 60       19       141      11       16




2,917     143     3,388     489      933

 5,490    840      5,490    5,490    5,490
 7,520   1,200     7,520    7,520    7,520
13,010   2,040    13,010   13,010   13,010


 69       11       69       69       69

  94      15        94       94       94
   0       0         0        0        0
 163      26       163      163      163
  25      25        25       25       25
   0       0         0        0        0
  25      25        25       25       25
 188      50       188      188      188
15,040   4,000    15,040   15,040   15,040


 33%      8%       20%      22%      30%




  0         0       0         0       0
  0        70       0        48      70
  0         0       0         0       0
  0         0       0         0       0
0   70   0   48   70
3 (Subtracted from Median)                                         Median cases


                                                  Median without
             Median without     Median without     low-carbon       Median Portrait
              electrification   low-carbon fuel     electricity         2050          Median with ZELB



                 50.0%              30.0%            50.0%              50.0%              50.0%


                  0.0%               0.0%             0.0%               0.0%               0.0%
                 73.0%              30.0%            73.0%              73.0%              73.0%
                 27.0%              70.0%            27.0%              27.0%              27.0%




                 50.0%              30.0%            50.0%              50.0%              50.0%
                 36.5%              21.0%            36.5%              36.5%              36.5%
                 13.5%              49.0%            13.5%              13.5%              13.5%

                  188                 50               188               188                188
                   94                 35                94                94                 94
                   94                 15                94                94                 94


                    94                15                94                94                 94
                    69                11                69                69                 69
                    25                25                25                25                 25
                   188                50               188               188                188


                  7520               1200             7520               7520               7520
                  7520               1200             7520               7520               7520
                    0                  0                0                  0                  0
                  5490                840             5490               5490               5490
                  6335                969             6335               6335               6335
                 25291              24414            25291              25291              25291
                 25291              24414            25291              25291              25291
                    0                  0                0                  0                  0

                 13,010             2,040            13,010             13,010            13,010

                 12,815             12,748           29,697             11,682             8,872
                 21,430             15,855           15,738             15,500            15,424
                  5,490               840             5,490             5,490              5,490
                  7,520              1,200            7,520             7,520              7,520
                 34,245             28,603           45,435             27,182            24,296
                 42.8%               6.6%            18.5%              47.0%             61.9%
 35.1%        7.6%       47.8%       48.5%       48.8%
 20.0%       20.0%       20.0%       20.0%       20.0%



 31.0%       31.0%                   31.0%       36.0%
  0.0%        0.0%                    0.0%        0.0%
 31.0%       31.0%                   31.0%       31.0%

  5.0%        5.0%       40.0%        5.0%        0.0%
  7.7%        4.8%        5.0%        4.8%        4.8%
  0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%


  28.2%      28.2%                    28.2%       28.2%
 102.9%      99.9%       45.0%       100.0%      100.0%
   5.0%       5.0%        0.0%        5.0%        10.0%




 13010        2040       13010       13010       13010
  188           50        188         188         188
  247          233        312         151         133




 0.000042    0.000046    0.000323    0.000037    0.000019
 0.000160    0.000160    0.000160    0.000160    0.000160
-0.000622   -0.000622   -0.000622   -0.000622   -0.000622
 0.000080    0.000080    0.000080    0.000080    0.000080
 0.000036    0.000036    0.000036    0.000036    0.000036
 0.000374    0.000539    0.000484    0.000355    0.000287
 0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000

0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000

0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000

0.005460    0.008025    0.007183    0.005166    0.004113

0.008014    0.010718    0.006767    0.006695    0.006672
0.008270    0.011060    0.006983    0.006909    0.006885
0.008009    0.010711    0.006763    0.006691    0.006667
0.008320    0.011076    0.007049    0.006976    0.006952
32,631    21,764    21,764    21,764    21,764

327,457   511,637   503,249   511,637   520,024
 6,386     9,978       0       9,978     10,141

 1,614     2,521    19,839     2,521      0
40,631    34,263    41,603    34,263    31,905

13,010     2,040    13,010    13,010    13,010

27,621    32,223    28,594    21,254    18,896


 85%       148%      131%      98%       87%
 33%       39%       34%       26%       23%


322,089   503,249   503,249   503,249   503,249

 5,368     8,387      0        8,387    16,775

                               9,993     8,884

                                 0         0
327,457   511,637   503,249   521,630   528,909
 9,682     15,127    14,879    15,423    15,638


 7369     11514       0       11739     11903
 6386     9978        0       10173     10314
 1862      2910     22894      2966        0

 2161      3779      3353      2493      2216



12,926    11,801    11,376    10,515    10,238


14788     14711     34270     13481     10238
22158    26225    34270    25220    22141


12,815   12,748   29,697   11,682   8,872


 596     1,043     925      688      612


21,430   15,855   15,738   15,500   15,424


34,245   28,603   45,435   27,182   24,296

40,631   38,581   45,435   37,355   34,611

  0        0        0        0        0




13.82    23.39    162.74   19.12     9.95


38.25    16.87    15.10    10.86     8.64
32.33    47.51    42.53    30.59    24.35



11.80    30.33    24.09    12.88     9.11
 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
70.58    64.38    57.63    41.44    33.00


 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
20.69    27.54    17.53    17.35    17.29



 4.96    11.55     6.52     4.80     4.25
81.64    61.15    38.61    38.20    38.06
44.94    49.28    31.12    30.79    30.68
24.57    32.86    20.75    20.53    20.45
 9.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
13.48    17.94    11.42    11.30    11.26


 22.60    30.23   19.09    18.88    18.82
 10.11    13.45    8.56     8.47     8.44
141.48   117.54   74.24    73.45    73.19
162.18   145.09   91.77    90.80    90.48

246.57   232.86   312.13   151.36   133.42
 8.04     8.04     8.04     8.04     8.04
254.61   240.90   320.17   159.40   141.46



  6       14       98        9        0



                             4
                             0
                            15

                              8
                             34
                             12
                             61
                             17
                             20
                            112
                            151



 691      166     3,667    1,208      0

 5,490    840      5,490    5,490    5,490
 7,520   1,200     7,520    7,520    7,520
13,010   2,040    13,010   13,010   13,010


 69       11       69       69       69

  94      15        94       94       94
   0       0         0        0        0
 163      26       163      163      163
  25      25        25       25       25
   0       0         0        0        0
  25      25        25       25       25
 188      50       188      188      188
15,040   4,000    15,040   15,040   15,040


 44%     14%       33%      55%      62%




  0        0        0        0        0
 33       51        0       52       53
  0        0        0        0        0
  0        0        0        0        0
33   51   0   52   53
                                                    Electricity generation options



Median with NG   100% Capture     No Fossil/CCS      Nuclear with NG
  Balancing         Median      (same as nuclear)      balancing             Nuclear



    50.0%           50.0%            50.0%                50.0%               50.0%


     0.0%            0.0%             0.0%                 0.0%                0.0%
    73.0%           73.0%            73.0%                73.0%               73.0%
    27.0%           27.0%            27.0%                27.0%               27.0%




    50.0%           50.0%            50.0%                50.0%               50.0%
    36.5%           36.5%            36.5%                36.5%               36.5%
    13.5%           13.5%            13.5%                13.5%               13.5%

     188             188              188                  188                 188
      94              94               94                   94                  94
      94              94               94                   94                  94


      94              94               94                   94                  94
      69              69               69                   69                  69
      25              25               25                   25                  25
     188             188              188                  188                 188


     7520            7520             7520                 7520                7520
     7520            7520             7520                 7520                7520
       0               0                0                    0                   0
     5490            5490             5490                 5490                5490
     6335            6335             6335                 6335                6335
    25291           25291            25291                25291               25291
    25291           25291            25291                25291               25291
       0               0                0                    0                   0

   13,010          13,010            13,010               13,010             13,010

    14,412          11,682           10,645               13,369              10,645
    15,574          15,500           15,177               15,256              15,177
     5,490           5,490            5,490                5,490               5,490
     7,520           7,520            7,520                7,520               7,520
    29,986          27,182           25,822               28,625              25,822
    38.1%           47.0%            51.6%                41.1%               51.6%
 48.3%       48.5%       49.5%       49.3%       49.5%
 20.0%       20.0%       20.0%       20.0%       20.0%



 26.0%       31.0%       62.0%       57.0%       62.0%
  0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 31.0%       31.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%

 10.0%        5.0%        5.0%       10.0%        5.0%
  4.9%        4.8%        4.9%        5.0%        4.9%
  0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%


  28.1%       28.2%       28.1%       28.0%       28.1%
 100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%
   0.0%       5.0%        5.0%         0.0%       5.0%




 13010       13010       13010       13010       13010
  188         188         188         188         188
  168         146         141         158         141




 0.000059    0.000025    0.000025    0.000046    0.000025
 0.000160    0.000160    0.000160    0.000160    0.000160
-0.000622   -0.000640   -0.000622   -0.000622   -0.000622
 0.000080    0.000000    0.000080    0.000080    0.000080
 0.000036    0.000000    0.000036    0.000036    0.000036
 0.000395    0.000355    0.000334    0.000382    0.000334
 0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000

0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000

0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000

0.005796    0.005166    0.004842    0.005586    0.004842

0.006718    0.006695    0.006594    0.006619    0.006594
0.006932    0.006909    0.006805    0.006831    0.006805
0.006713    0.006691    0.006590    0.006615    0.006590
0.006999    0.006976    0.006872    0.006898    0.006872
21,764    21,764    21,764    21,764    21,764

503,249   511,637   511,637   503,249   511,637
 9,814     9,978       0         0         0

 4,960     2,521     2,521     4,960     2,521
36,538    34,263    24,285    26,724    24,285

13,010    13,010    13,010    13,010    13,010

23,529    21,254    11,276    13,714    11,276


 108%      98%       52%       63%       52%
 28%       26%       14%       17%       14%


503,249   503,249   503,249   503,249   503,249

  0        8,387     8,387      0        8,387

11,063     9,993     5,302     6,448     5,302

   0         0         0         0         0
514,312   521,630   516,939   509,698   516,939
 15,207    15,423    15,284    15,070    15,284


11574     11739       0         0         0
10030     10173       0         0         0
 5849      2966      2940      5797      2940

 2759      2493      1322      1608      1322



10,782    10,515     9,345     9,631     9,345


16631     13481     12284     15428     12284
28206    25220    12284    15428    12284


14,412   11,682   10,645   13,369   10,645


 761      688      365      444      365


15,574   15,500   15,177   15,256   15,177


29,986   27,182   25,822   28,625   25,822

40,016   37,355   25,822   28,625   25,822

  0        0        0        0        0




30.12    13.30    12.68    23.50    12.68


12.18    10.86    10.18    11.74    10.18
34.32    30.59    28.67    33.07    28.67



15.99    12.88     6.40     8.98     6.40
 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
46.50    41.44    38.85    44.81    38.85


 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
17.41    17.35    17.09    17.16    17.09



 5.33     4.80     2.51     3.06     2.51
38.33    38.20    37.62    37.76    37.62
30.89    30.79    30.32    30.43    30.32
20.60    20.53    20.22    20.29    20.22
 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
11.34    11.30    11.13    11.17    11.13


18.95    18.88    18.60    18.67    18.60
 8.50     8.47     8.35     8.38     8.35
73.70    73.45    72.34    72.61    72.34
91.10    90.80    89.43    89.77    89.43

167.71   145.54   140.95   158.08   140.95
 8.04     8.04     8.04     8.04     8.04
175.75   153.58   148.99   166.12   148.99



 20        9        9       19        9




1,931    1,208    1,314    2,063    1,314

 5,490    5,490    5,490    5,490    5,490
 7,520    7,520    7,520    7,520    7,520
13,010   13,010   13,010   13,010   13,010


 69       69       69       69       69

  94       94       94       94       94
   0        0        0        0        0
 163      163      163      163      163
  25       25       25       25       25
   0        0        0        0        0
  25       25       25       25       25
 188      188      188      188      188
15,040   15,040   15,040   15,040   15,040


 50%      55%      58%      53%      58%




  0        0        0        0        0
 52       58        0        0        0
  0        0        0        0        0
  0                 0        0        0
52   58   0   0   0
                    Coal/CCS with NG              Coal/CCS with   Nat. Gas/CCS with
Nuclear with ZELB       balancing      Coal/CCS       ZELB          NG balancing



     50.0%               50.0%          50.0%        50.0%             50.0%


      0.0%                0.0%           0.0%         0.0%              0.0%
     73.0%               73.0%          73.0%        73.0%             73.0%
     27.0%               27.0%          27.0%        27.0%             27.0%




     50.0%               50.0%          50.0%        50.0%             50.0%
     36.5%               36.5%          36.5%        36.5%             36.5%
     13.5%               13.5%          13.5%        13.5%             13.5%

      188                 188            188          188               188
       94                  94             94           94                94
       94                  94             94           94                94


       94                  94             94           94                94
       69                  69             69           69                69
       25                  25             25           25                25
      188                 188            188          188               188


      7520                7520           7520         7520              7520
      7520                7520           7520         7520              7520
        0                   0              0            0                 0
      5490                5490           5490         5490              5490
      6335                6335           6335         6335              6335
     25291               25291          25291        25291             25291
     25291               25291          25291        25291             25291
        0                   0              0            0                 0

     13,010             13,010          13,010       13,010            13,010

      7,842              13,369         10,645        7,842            15,286
     15,096              15,256         15,177       15,096            15,840
      5,490               5,490          5,490        5,490             5,490
      7,520               7,520          7,520        7,520             7,520
     22,937              28,625         25,822       22,937            31,127
     70.0%               41.1%          51.6%        70.0%             35.9%
 49.8%       49.3%       49.5%       49.8%       47.5%
 20.0%       20.0%       20.0%       20.0%       20.0%



 67.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
  0.0%       57.0%       62.0%       67.0%        0.0%
  0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%       57.0%

  0.0%       10.0%        5.0%        0.0%       10.0%
  4.8%        5.0%        4.9%        4.8%        4.9%
  0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%


  28.2%       28.0%       28.1%       28.2%       28.1%
 100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%
  10.0%        0.0%       5.0%        10.0%        0.0%




 13010       13010       13010       13010       13010
  188         188         188         188         188
  121         181         167         150         176




 0.000008    0.000092    0.000074    0.000061    0.000069
 0.000160    0.000160    0.000160    0.000160    0.000160
-0.000622   -0.000622   -0.000622   -0.000622   -0.000622
 0.000080    0.000080    0.000080    0.000080    0.000080
 0.000036    0.000036    0.000036    0.000036    0.000036
 0.000250    0.000382    0.000334    0.000250    0.000405
 0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000

0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000

0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000

0.003538    0.005586    0.004842    0.003538    0.005950

0.006567    0.006619    0.006594    0.006567    0.006797
0.006777    0.006831    0.006805    0.006777    0.007015
0.006563    0.006615    0.006590    0.006563    0.006793
0.006846    0.006898    0.006872    0.006846    0.007080
21,764    21,764    21,764    21,764    21,764

520,024   503,249   511,637   520,024   503,249
   0         0         0         0       18,045

  0        4,960     2,521       0       4,960
21,764    26,724    24,285    21,764    44,769

13,010    13,010    13,010    13,010    13,010

 8,755    13,714    11,276     8,755    31,760


 40%       63%       52%       40%       146%
 11%       17%       14%       11%        38%


503,249   503,249   503,249   503,249   503,249

16,775      0        8,387    16,775      0

 4,116     6,448     5,302     4,116    14,933

   0          0         0         0         0
524,141   509,698   516,939   524,141   518,182
 15,497    15,070    15,284    15,497    15,321


  0         0         0         0       21442
  0         0         0         0       18581
   0       5797      2940        0       5893

 1027      1608      1322      1027      3725



 9,049     9,631     9,345     9,049    11,747


 9049     15428     12284      9049     17641
 9049    15428    12284     9049    39083


7,842    13,369   10,645   7,842    15,286


 283      444      365      283     1,028


15,096   15,256   15,177   15,096   15,840


22,937   28,625   25,822   22,937   31,127

22,937   28,625   25,822   22,937   49,707

  0        0        0        0        0




 4.05    46.75    38.32    32.14    35.68


 7.43    11.74    10.18     7.43    12.51
20.94    33.07    28.67    20.94    35.23



 3.63     8.98     6.40     3.63    22.16
 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
28.38    44.81    38.85    28.38    47.73


 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
17.02    17.16    17.09    17.02    17.61



 1.94     3.06     2.51     1.94     7.28
37.47    37.76    37.62    37.47    38.78
30.20    30.43    30.32    30.20    31.26
20.14    20.29    20.22    20.14    20.84
 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
11.09    11.17    11.13    11.09    11.47


18.52    18.67    18.60    18.52    19.17
 8.32     8.38     8.35     8.32     8.60
72.05    72.61    72.34    72.05    74.57
89.07    89.77    89.43    89.07    92.18

121.50   181.33   166.59   149.59   175.59
 8.04     8.04     8.04     8.04     8.04
129.54   189.36   174.63   157.63   183.62



  0       19        9        0       21




  0      2,063    1,314      0      1,834

 5,490    5,490    5,490    5,490    5,490
 7,520    7,520    7,520    7,520    7,520
13,010   13,010   13,010   13,010   13,010


 69       69       69       69       69

  94       94       94       94       94
   0        0        0        0        0
 163      163      163      163      163
  25       25       25       25       25
   0        0        0        0        0
  25       25       25       25       25
 188      188      188      188      188
15,040   15,040   15,040   15,040   15,040


 66%      53%      58%      66%      48%




  0       209      231      253       0
  0        0        0        0       96
  0        0        0        0        0
  0        0        0        0        0
0   209   231   253   96
               Nat. Gas/CCS with   Renewables with                Renewables with
Nat. Gas/CCS         ZELB           NG balancing     Renewables       ZELB



   50.0%            50.0%              50.0%           50.0%          50.0%


    0.0%             0.0%               0.0%            0.0%           0.0%
   73.0%            73.0%              73.0%           73.0%          73.0%
   27.0%            27.0%              27.0%           27.0%          27.0%




   50.0%            50.0%              50.0%           50.0%          50.0%
   36.5%            36.5%              36.5%           36.5%          36.5%
   13.5%            13.5%              13.5%           13.5%          13.5%

    188              188                188             188            188
     94               94                 94              94             94
     94               94                 94              94             94


     94               94                 94              94             94
     69               69                 69              69             69
     25               25                 25              25             25
    188              188                188             188            188


    7520             7520               7520            7520           7520
    7520             7520               7520            7520           7520
      0                0                  0               0              0
    5490             5490               5490            5490           5490
    6335             6335               6335            6335           6335
   25291            25291              25291           25291          25291
   25291            25291              25291           25291          25291
      0                0                  0               0              0

  13,010            13,010             13,010          13,010         13,010

   12,719           10,069             18,942          13,552          7,842
   15,823           15,805             15,417          15,262         15,096
    5,490            5,490              5,490           5,490          5,490
    7,520            7,520              7,520           7,520          7,520
   28,543           25,874             34,359          28,813         22,937
   43.2%            54.5%              29.0%           40.5%          70.0%
 47.5%       47.6%       48.8%       49.3%       49.8%
 20.0%       20.0%       20.0%       20.0%       20.0%



  0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
  0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 62.0%       67.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%

  5.0%        0.0%       20.0%       10.0%        0.0%
  4.8%        4.7%        4.9%       4.8%         4.7%
  0.0%        0.0%        0.0%       0.0%         0.0%


  28.2%       28.3%       75.1%       85.2%       95.3%
 100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%
  5.0%        10.0%        0.0%       10.0%       20.0%




 13010       13010       13010       13010       13010
  188         188         188         188         188
  161         146         191         159         121




 0.000049    0.000032    0.000095    0.000046    0.000007
 0.000160    0.000160    0.000160    0.000160    0.000160
-0.000622   -0.000622   -0.000622   -0.000622   -0.000622
 0.000080    0.000080    0.000080    0.000080    0.000080
 0.000036    0.000036    0.000036    0.000036    0.000036
 0.000372    0.000321    0.000437    0.000384    0.000250
 0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000

0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000

0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000

0.005437    0.004633    0.006441    0.005625    0.003538

0.006792    0.006787    0.006669    0.006621    0.006567
0.007010    0.007004    0.006883    0.006832    0.006777
0.006788    0.006783    0.006665    0.006616    0.006563
0.007075    0.007069    0.006949    0.006900    0.006846
21,764    21,764    21,764    21,764    21,764

511,637   520,024   503,249   520,024   536,799
 19,955    21,918      0         0         0

 2,521       0       9,920     5,125      0
44,241    43,682    31,684    26,889    21,764

13,010    13,010    13,010    13,010    13,010

31,231    30,673    18,674    13,880     8,755


 143%      141%      86%       64%       40%
  38%       37%      23%       17%       11%


503,249   503,249   503,249   503,249   503,249

 8,387    16,775      0       16,775    33,550

14,684    14,422     8,780     6,526     4,116

    0         0        0         0         0
526,321   534,446   512,030   526,550   540,916
 15,562    15,802    15,139    15,568    15,993


23689     25995       0         0         0
20528     22526       0         0         0
 2993        0      11647      5989        0

 3663      3597      2190      1628      1027



11,685    11,620    10,212     9,650     9,049


14678     11620     21859     15639      9049
38367    37615    21859    15639     9049


12,719   10,069   18,942   13,552   7,842


1,011     993      604      449      283


15,823   15,805   15,417   15,262   15,096


28,543   25,874   34,359   28,813   22,937

49,071   48,400   34,359   28,813   22,937

  0        0        0        0        0




25.59    16.94    48.77    24.28     4.05


11.43     9.74    13.54    11.82     7.43
32.19    27.43    38.13    33.30    20.94



19.91    16.67    14.11     9.16     3.63
 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
43.62    37.17    51.67    45.12    28.38


 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
17.59    17.58    17.28    17.16    17.02



 7.15     7.02     4.20     3.10     1.94
38.75    38.72    38.05    37.77    37.47
31.23    31.21    30.67    30.44    30.20
20.83    20.81    20.45    20.30    20.14
 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
11.46    11.45    11.26    11.18    11.09


19.16    19.14    18.81    18.67    18.52
 8.59     8.59     8.44     8.38     8.32
74.51    74.46    73.17    72.63    72.05
92.11    92.04    90.45    89.79    89.07

161.32   146.15   190.89   159.20   121.50
 8.04     8.04     8.04     8.04     8.04
169.36   154.18   198.92   167.23   129.54



 10        0       45       20        0




1,119      0      2,925    2,102      0

 5,490    5,490    5,490    5,490    5,490
 7,520    7,520    7,520    7,520    7,520
13,010   13,010   13,010   13,010   13,010


 69       69       69       69       69

  94       94       94       94       94
   0        0        0        0        0
 163      163      163      163      163
  25       25       25       25       25
   0        0        0        0        0
  25       25       25       25       25
 188      188      188      188      188
15,040   15,040   15,040   15,040   15,040


 53%      58%      44%      52%      66%




  0        0        0        0        0
 106      116       0        0        0
  0        0        0        0        0
  0        0        0        0        0
106   116   0   0   0
Biomass GHG & Supply



 Net Zero GHG     50% GHG       Low Biomass   High Biomass   Net Zero GHG +
   Biomass         Biomass         Supply        Supply       Low Biomass



    50.0%              50.0%      50.0%          50.0%           50.0%


     0.0%               0.0%       0.0%           0.0%            0.0%
    73.0%              73.0%      73.0%          69.0%           73.0%
    27.0%              27.0%      27.0%          31.0%           27.0%




    50.0%              50.0%      50.0%          50.0%           50.0%
    36.5%              36.5%      36.5%          34.5%           36.5%
    13.5%              13.5%      13.5%          15.5%           13.5%

     188                188         50            376             50
      94                 94         25            188             25
      94                 94         25            188             25


      94                 94         25            188             25
      69                 69         18            130             18
      25                 25          7             58              7
     188                188         50            376             50


     7520               7520       2000          15040           2000
     7520               7520       2000          15040           2000
       0                  0          0             0               0
     5490               5490       1460          10378           1460
     6335               6335       1685          11976           1685
    25291              25291       6726          58075           6726
    25291              25291       6726          58075           6726
       0                  0          0             0               0

    13,010         13,010          3,460         25,418          3,460

    11,682             11,682     12,675         10,392          12,675
    15,500             15,500     15,809         15,099          15,809
     5,490              5,490      1,460         10,378           1,460
     7,520              7,520      2,000         15,040           2,000
    27,182             27,182     28,484         25,491          28,484
    47.0%              47.0%      11.5%          99.9%           11.5%
 48.5%       48.5%       12.7%       99.6%       12.7%
  0.0%       50.0%       20.0%       20.0%        0.0%



 31.0%       31.0%       31.0%       31.0%       31.0%
  0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 31.0%       31.0%       31.0%       31.0%       31.0%

  5.0%        5.0%        5.0%        5.0%        5.0%
  4.8%        4.8%        1.3%       11.3%        1.3%
  0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%


  28.2%       28.2%       31.7%       21.7%       31.7%
 100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%
  5.0%        5.0%        5.0%        5.0%        5.0%




 13010       13010        3460       25418        3460
  188         188           50        376           50
  130         184          220         52          215




 0.000026    0.000052    0.000039    0.000035    0.000036
 0.000000    0.000400    0.000160    0.000160    0.000000
-0.000800   -0.000356   -0.000622   -0.000622   -0.000800
 0.000080    0.000080    0.000080    0.000080    0.000080
 0.000036    0.000036    0.000036    0.000036    0.000036
 0.000301    0.000435    0.000516    0.000114    0.000503
 0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000

0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000

0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000

0.004501    0.006164    0.007676    0.001425    0.007513

0.005901    0.007887    0.010219    0.001676    0.010011
0.006089    0.008139    0.010545    0.001729    0.010331
0.005897    0.007882    0.010212    0.001674    0.010005
0.006092    0.008301    0.010567    0.001859    0.010336
21,764    21,764    21,764    21,764    21,764

511,637   511,637   511,637   511,637   511,637
 9,978     9,978     9,978     9,978     9,978

 2,521     2,521     2,521     2,521     2,521
34,263    34,263    34,263    34,263    34,263

13,010    13,010     3,460    25,418     3,460

21,254    21,254    30,803     8,846    30,803


 98%       98%       142%      41%       142%
 26%       26%       37%       11%       37%


503,249   503,249   503,249   503,249   503,249

 8,387     8,387     8,387     8,387     8,387

 9,993     9,993    14,483     4,159    14,483

   0         0         0         0         0
521,630   521,630   526,120   515,796   526,120
 15,423    15,423    15,556    15,250    15,556


11739     11739     11840     11608     11840
10173     10173     10260     10059     10260
 2966      2966      2992      2933      2992

 2493      2493      3612      1037      3612



10,515    10,515    11,635     9,060    11,635


13481     13481     14627     11993     14627
25220    25220    26467    23601    26467


11,682   11,682   12,675   10,392   12,675


 688      688      997      286      997


15,500   15,500   15,809   15,099   15,809


27,182   27,182   28,484   25,491   28,484

37,355   37,355   38,744   35,550   38,744

  0        0        0        0        0




13.68    27.28    20.52    18.00    19.10


 9.46    12.95    16.13     3.00    15.79
26.65    36.49    45.45     8.44    44.48



11.22    15.36    27.73     1.48    27.14
 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
36.11    49.45    61.58    11.43    60.27


 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
15.15    20.64    26.28     4.62    25.71



 4.19     5.71    10.53     0.53    10.30
33.66    44.99    58.30     9.56    57.12
27.13    36.26    46.99     7.70    46.03
18.09    24.18    31.33     5.14    30.69
 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
 9.87    13.44    17.12     3.01    16.74


16.64     22.25    28.82    4.73     28.24
 7.40     10.08    12.84    2.26     12.56
64.71     86.55   112.07   18.43    109.79
79.86    107.20   138.35   23.05    135.50

129.65   183.93   220.45   52.48    214.87
 8.04     8.04     8.04    8.04      8.04
137.69   191.96   228.49   60.52    222.91



  8       11       14        3       13




1,208    1,208     299     2,538     299

 5,490    5,490   1,460    10,378   1,460
 7,520    7,520   2,000    15,040   2,000
13,010   13,010   3,460    25,418   3,460


 69       69       18       130      18

  94       94      25       188      25
   0        0       0         0       0
 163      163      43       318      43
  25       25       7        58       7
   0        0       0         0       0
  25       25       7        58       7
 188      188      50       376      50
15,040   15,040   4,000    30,080   4,000


 55%      55%     14%      118%     14%




  0        0        0        0        0
 52       52       53       52       53
  0        0        0        0        0
  0        0        0        0        0
52   52   53   52   53
Net Zero GHG +   50% GHG + Low   50% GHG + High Doubled biomass Doubled biomass
 High Biomass       Biomass         Biomass         supply        supply (dupl)



    50.0%           50.0%            50.0%           50.0%           50.0%


     0.0%            0.0%             0.0%            0.0%            0.0%
    69.0%           73.0%            69.0%           69.0%           69.0%
    31.0%           27.0%            31.0%           31.0%           31.0%




    50.0%           50.0%            50.0%           50.0%           50.0%
    34.5%           36.5%            34.5%           34.5%           34.5%
    15.5%           13.5%            15.5%           15.5%           15.5%

     376              50              376             376             376
     188              25              188             188             188
     188              25              188             188             188


     188              25              188             188             188
     130              18              130             130             130
      58               7               58              58              58
     376              50              376             376             376


    15040            2000            15040           15040           15040
    15040            2000            15040           15040           15040
      0                0               0               0               0
    10378            1460            10378           10378           10378
    11976            1685            11976           11976           11976
    58075            6726            58075           58075           58075
    58075            6726            58075           58075           58075
      0                0               0               0               0

   25,418            3,460           25,418          25,418         25,418

    10,392          12,675           10,392          10,392          10,392
    15,099          15,809           15,099          15,099          15,099
    10,378           1,460           10,378          10,378          10,378
    15,040           2,000           15,040          15,040          15,040
    25,491          28,484           25,491          25,491          25,491
    99.9%           11.5%            99.9%           99.9%           99.9%
 99.6%       12.7%       99.6%       99.6%       99.6%
  0.0%       50.0%       50.0%       20.0%       20.0%



 31.0%       31.0%       31.0%       31.0%       31.0%
  0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 31.0%       31.0%       31.0%       31.0%       31.0%

  5.0%        5.0%        5.0%        5.0%        5.0%
 11.3%        1.3%       11.3%       11.3%       11.3%
  0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%


  21.7%       31.7%       21.7%       21.7%       21.7%
 100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%
  5.0%        5.0%        5.0%        5.0%        5.0%




 25418        3460       25418       25418       25418
  376           50        376         376         376
   6           229        121          52          52




 0.000011    0.000043    0.000070    0.000035    0.000035
 0.000000    0.000400    0.000400    0.000160    0.000160
-0.000800   -0.000356   -0.000356   -0.000622   -0.000622
 0.000080    0.000080    0.000080    0.000080    0.000080
 0.000036    0.000036    0.000036    0.000036    0.000036
 0.000001    0.000536    0.000285    0.000114    0.000114
 0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000

0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000

0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000

0.000012    0.007921    0.003545    0.001425    0.001425

0.000045    0.010529    0.004122    0.001676    0.001676
0.000046    0.010866    0.004254    0.001729    0.001729
0.000045    0.010522    0.004119    0.001674    0.001674
0.000046    0.010912    0.004580    0.001859    0.001859
21,764    21,764    21,764    21,764    21,764

511,637   511,637   511,637   511,637   511,637
 9,978     9,978     9,978     9,978     9,978

 2,521     2,521     2,521     2,521     2,521
34,263    34,263    34,263    34,263    34,263

25,418     3,460    25,418    25,418    25,418

 8,846    30,803     8,846     8,846     8,846


 41%       142%      41%       41%       41%
 11%       37%       11%       11%       11%


503,249   503,249   503,249   503,249   503,249

 8,387     8,387     8,387     8,387     8,387

 4,159    14,483     4,159     4,159     4,159

   0         0         0         0         0
515,796   526,120   515,796   515,796   515,796
 15,250    15,556    15,250    15,250    15,250


11608     11840     11608     11608     11608
10059     10260     10059     10059     10059
 2933      2992      2933      2933      2933

 1037      3612      1037      1037      1037



 9,060    11,635     9,060     9,060     9,060


11993     14627     11993     11993     11993
23601    26467    23601    23601    23601


10,392   12,675   10,392   10,392   10,392


 286      997      286      286      286


15,099   15,809   15,099   15,099   15,099


25,491   28,484   25,491   25,491   25,491

35,550   38,744   35,550   35,550   35,550

  0        0        0        0        0




 5.78    22.66    36.33    18.00    18.00


 0.03    16.65     7.45     3.00     3.00
 0.07    46.90    20.99     8.44     8.44



 0.01    28.61     3.68     1.48     1.48
 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
 0.10    63.54    28.44    11.43    11.43


 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
 0.11    27.14    11.39     4.62     4.62



 0.01    10.88     1.31     0.53     0.53
 0.25    60.07    23.52     9.56     9.56
 0.20    48.41    18.95     7.70     7.70
 0.14    32.28    12.64     5.14     5.14
 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
 0.07    17.67     7.42     3.01     3.01


 0.13     29.70   11.63     4.73     4.73
 0.06     13.26    5.56     2.26     2.26
 0.49    115.49   45.34    18.43    18.43
 0.60    142.62   56.72    23.05    23.05

 6.48    228.82   121.49   52.48    52.48
8.04      8.04     8.04    8.04     8.04
14.51    236.86   129.53   60.52    60.52



  0       14        7        3        3




2,538     299     2,538    2,538    2,538

10,378   1,460    10,378   10,378   10,378
15,040   2,000    15,040   15,040   15,040
25,418   3,460    25,418   25,418   25,418


 130      18       130      130      130

 188      25       188      188      188
   0       0         0        0        0
 318      43       318      318      318
  58       7        58       58       58
   0       0         0        0        0
  58       7        58       58       58
 376      50       376      376      376
30,080   4,000    30,080   30,080   30,080


118%     14%      118%     118%     118%




  0        0        0        0        0
 52       53       52       52       52
  0        0        0        0        0
  0        0        0        0        0
52   53   52   52   52
Biomass/CCS                                                              H2 cases 2050
                                                     Realistic case w/ behavior 2050



Biomass/CCS (w/o   Biomass/Nat.   Biomass/Coal/CCS                           Hydrogen
   fossil/CCS)       Gas/CCS          (Williams)      Behavior Change       Electrolysis



     50.0%            50.0%            50.0%               50.0%              50.0%


     0.0%             0.0%            100.0%                0.0%               0.0%
     0.0%             0.0%             0.0%                73.0%              57.0%
    100.0%           100.0%            0.0%                27.0%              43.0%




     50.0%            50.0%           100.0%               50.0%              50.0%
      0.0%             0.0%            0.0%                36.5%              28.5%
     50.0%            50.0%            0.0%                13.5%              21.5%

      188              188              188                 188                188
       94               94               94                  94                 94
       94               94               94                  94                 94


       94               94              188                  94                  94
        0                0               0                   69                  54
       94               94               0                   25                  40
      188              188              188                 188                 188
        1                1

     7520             7520             28012                7520               7520
     7520             7520               0                  7520               7520
       0                0              28012                  0                  0
       0                0                0                  5490               4286
       0                0                0                  6335               4947
    110062           110062              0                 25291              40278
       0                0                0                 25291              40278
    110062           110062              0                    0                  0

     7,520            7,520            28,012             13,010              11,806

     11,216          12,253             9,086              10,492             10,437
     15,355          15,678            14,692              13,920             11,616
        0               0                 0                 5,490              4,286
      7,520           7,520            28,012               7,520              7,520
     26,571          27,931            23,778              24,412             22,053
      0.0%            0.0%              0.0%               52.3%              41.1%
 49.0%       48.0%       190.7%      54.0%        64.7%
 20.0%       20.0%        20.0%      20.0%        20.0%
                            1


 31.0%       31.0%       31.0%       30.6%        62.0%
  0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%         0.0%
  0.0%       31.0%        0.0%       31.0%         0.0%

  5.0%        5.0%        5.0%        5.0%         5.0%
  0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        5.2%         4.9%
 21.2%       21.0%        0.0%        0.0%         0.0%

                          41.4%
  42.8%       12.0%       22.6%       28.2%        28.1%
 100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%       100.0%
   5.0%        5.0%        5.0%        5.0%        5.0%

                                                   90%
                                                   0%

                                                   10%

  7520        7520       28012       13010        11806
   188         188        188         188          188
   105         112        -15         127          122




-0.000103   -0.000091    0.000028    0.000036     0.000027
 0.000160    0.000160    0.000160    0.000160     0.000160
-0.000622   -0.000622   -0.000622   -0.000622    -0.000622
 0.000080    0.000080    0.000080    0.000080     0.000080
 0.000036    0.000036    0.000036    0.000036     0.000036
 0.000569    0.000569    0.000569    0.000331     0.000382
 0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000     0.000000

0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000     0.000000

0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000     0.000000

0.008491    0.008491    0.008491    0.004789     0.005585

0.006650    0.006749    -0.007269   0.006154     0.005102
0.006863    0.006965    -0.007502   0.006351     0.005265
0.006646    0.006745    -0.007265   0.006150     0.005098
0.006930    0.007031    -0.007258   0.006424     0.005351

                                                0.002107657
                                                0.001323083
                                                0.001984127
                                        0.009168824




21,764    21,764    21,764    19,591      16,161

511,637   511,637   511,637   475,238     818,166
   0       9,978       0       9,268         0

 2,521     2,521     2,521     2,342       4,032
24,285    34,263    24,285    31,200      20,193

 7,520     7,520    28,012    13,010      11,806

16,765    26,743    -3,727    18,191       8,386


 77%       123%      -17%      93%         52%
 20%       32%        -4%      22%         10%


503,249   503,249   503,249   467,447     457,693

 8,387     8,387     8,387     7,791       7,628

 7,883    12,574    -1,752     8,552       3,887

   0         0         0         0        352,845
519,520   524,211   509,885   483,790     822,053
 15,360    15,499    15,076    14,304      24,305


  0       11797       0       10888         0
  0       10223       0       9435          0
 2954      2981      2900      2751        4675

 1966      3136      -437      2133        565
                                           1,251

 9,989    11,159     7,585     9,356       7,370


12943     14140     10485     12107       12045
12943    25937    10485    22995    12045


11,216   12,253   9,086    10,492   10,437


 543      866      -121     589      268


15,355   15,678   14,692   13,920   11,616


26,571   27,931   23,778   24,412   22,053

26,571   38,154   23,778   33,846   22,053

  0        0        0        0      7,979
                                    7859



-53.71   -47.73   14.49    17.44    22.13


17.85    17.85    17.85     9.07    11.74
50.27    50.27    50.27    25.52    19.28



16.70    26.63    -3.71    10.21     3.16
 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
68.12    68.12    68.12    34.59    31.02


 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
17.23    17.49    -18.05   14.38    13.31



 3.76     6.09     0.88     3.78     1.43
37.94    38.50    -41.47   31.60    11.43
30.58    31.03    -33.43   25.47    23.46
20.39    20.69    -22.29   16.98    15.64
 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
11.22    11.39    -11.76    9.36     8.67


18.76    19.04    -20.50   15.62     14.39
 8.42     8.54     -8.82    7.02      6.50
72.95    74.04    -79.62   60.77    38.31
90.19    91.53    -97.67   75.14    51.62
                                    16.82
104.59   111.91   -15.06   127.18   121.59
    8.04            8.04       8.04      8.04     8.04
   112.63          119.95      -7.02    135.21   129.62



     15             15          14        8       16


Median again:   Biomass/CCS:
      4               0
      0             -68
     15              21

      8               0
     34              68
     12              12
     61              62
     17              17
     20              12
    112             147
    151             112



     0               0           0      1,247     1,664
                                                   445
     0               0           0       5,490    4,286
   7,520           7,520       28,012    7,520    7,520
   7,520           7,520       28,012   13,010   11,806


     0               0           0       69       54

     94              94          0        94       94
      0               0         188        0        0
     94              94         188      163      148
      0               0          0        25       40
     94              94          0         0        0
     94              94          0        25       40
    188             188         188      188      188
   15,040          15,040      28,012   15,040   15,040


    57%             54%        118%      62%      68%




      0               0          0        0        0
      0              53          0       49        0
     88              88          0        0        0
      0               0         348       0        0
88   141   348   49   0
                H2 + Behavior   Combinations

                                                                     Hydrogen Nat.
                                  Hydrogen Nat.    Hydrogen Nat.       Gas/CCS +
Hydrogen Nat.     H2 NG/CCS +      Gas/CCS +         Gas/CCS +     Bio/CCS + ZELB +
  Gas/CCS           Behavior        Bio/CCS       Bio/CCS + ZELB        HighBio



   50.0%              50.0%          50.0%            50.0%             38.3%


    0.0%              0.0%            0.0%            0.0%               0.0%
   75.0%             78.0%            0.0%            0.0%              34.0%
   25.0%             22.0%           100.0%          100.0%             66.0%




   50.0%              50.0%          50.0%            50.0%             38.3%
   37.5%              39.0%           0.0%             0.0%             21.0%
   12.5%              11.0%          50.0%            50.0%             40.7%

    188                188            188              188               376
     94                 94             94               94               232
     94                 94             94               94               144


     94                 94             94               94               144
     71                 73              0                0                79
     24                 21             94               94               153
    188                188            188              188               376
                                        1                1                 1

    7520               7520           7520            7520              11520
    7520               7520           7520            7520              11520
      0                  0              0               0                  0
    5640               5866             0               0                6310
    6509               6769             0               0                7282
   23417              20607          110062          110062            179283
   23417              20607             0               0                  0
      0                  0           110062          110062            179283

   13,160            13,386          7,520            7,520            17,830

    9,062             8,214           9,404            6,940             6,338
   11,807            10,581          11,987           11,919            11,590
    5,640             5,866             0                0               6,310
    7,520             7,520           7,520            7,520            11,520
   20,869            18,795          21,391           18,859            17,927
   62.2%             71.4%            0.0%             0.0%             99.6%
  63.7%         71.1%         62.7%          63.1%          99.4%
  20.0%         20.0%         20.0%          20.0%          20.0%



  30.9%         31.0%         28.8%          34.1%          19.4%
   0.0%          0.0%          0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
  31.0%         31.0%         31.0%          31.0%          31.0%

   5.0%          5.0%          5.0%           0.0%           0.0%
   5.0%          4.8%          0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
   0.0%          0.0%         23.2%          22.9%          37.6%


   28.2%         28.2%         12.0%         12.0%          12.0%
  100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%         100.0%
    5.0%          5.0%          5.0%         10.0%          10.0%

    0%            0%            0%            0%             0%
   90%           90%           90%           90%            90%

   10%           10%           10%           10%            10%

  13160         13386          7520          7520           17830
   188           188            188           188            376
   111            90             76            62            -64




  0.000033      0.000031     -0.000105     -0.000131      -0.000223
  0.000160      0.000160      0.000160      0.000160       0.000160
 -0.000622     -0.000622     -0.000622     -0.000622      -0.000622
  0.000080      0.000080      0.000080      0.000080       0.000080
  0.000036      0.000036      0.000036      0.000036       0.000036
  0.000285      0.000244      0.000569      0.000569       0.000116
  0.000000      0.000000      0.000000      0.000000       0.000000

 0.000000      0.000000      0.000000      0.000000       0.000000

 0.000000      0.000000      0.000000      0.000000       0.000000

 0.004087      0.003438      0.008491      0.008491       0.001446

 0.005204      0.004479      0.005298      0.005263       0.001696
 0.005371      0.004623      0.005468      0.005431       0.001751
 0.005201      0.004476      0.005295      0.005260       0.001695
 0.005456      0.004717      0.005552      0.005516       0.001881

0.002471307   0.002371147   0.003151232    0.003151232    0.002063529
0.001639736   0.001524891   -0.00514525   -0.006444277   -0.010956465
0.001984127   0.001984127   0.001984127    0.001984127    0.001984127
0.006855931   0.005854326   0.013655172   0.013655172   0.002778147




  16,161        14,548        16,161        16,161        16,161

  465,321       423,636       465,321       472,949       472,949
   9,074         8,262         9,074         9,223         9,223

   2,293         2,088         2,293          0             0
  27,529        24,897        27,529        25,384        25,384

  13,160        13,386         7,520         7,520        17,830

  14,369        11,511        20,009        17,864         7,554


   89%           79%           124%          111%          47%
   17%           14%           24%           22%           9%


  457,693       416,691       457,693       457,693       457,693

   7,628         6,945         7,628        15,256        15,256

   6,660         5,335         9,275         8,281         3,501

     0             0             0             0             0
  471,982       428,971       474,596       481,230       476,451
   13,955        12,683        14,032        14,228        14,087


  10622          9654         10681         10830         10722
  9204           8366         9255          9385          9291
   2684          2439          2699            0             0

   969           776           1349          1204          509
   1,251         1,262         1,251         1,251         1,251

   7,773         7,040         8,153         8,009         7,314


  10457          9479         10852          8009          7314
21079    19133    21533    18839    18036


9,062    8,214    9,404    6,940    6,338


 458      367      638      570      241


11,807   10,581   11,987   11,919   11,590


20,869   18,795   21,391   18,859   17,927

30,073   27,161   30,646   28,243   27,219

7,979    8,052    7,979    7,979    7,979
7859     7931     7859     7859     7859



15.75    13.31    -49.70   -63.11   -106.24


 8.59     6.51    17.85    17.85     3.04
14.11    10.68    29.31    29.31     4.99



 3.96     2.67    11.45    10.23     0.74
 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
22.70    17.20    47.16    47.16     8.03


 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
13.57    10.56    13.81    13.72     4.68



 2.50     1.73     3.54     3.14     0.45
11.66     9.04    11.88    11.80     3.80
23.93    18.54    24.36    24.20     7.80
15.96    12.36    16.24    16.14     5.20
 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
 8.84     6.88     8.99     8.93     3.05


 14.68   11.37    14.94    14.84     4.78
  6.63    5.16     6.74     6.70     2.28
39.08    30.28    39.78    39.52    12.78
52.65    40.84    53.59    53.24    17.46
19.72    19.09    25.14    25.14    16.46
110.82   90.44    76.20    62.42    -64.29
 8.04    8.04     8.04     8.04      8.04
118.85   98.48    84.23    70.46    -56.25



  7        5       13        0        0




 1,448    1,510     0        0         0
  675      781      0        0       1,079
 5,640    5,866     0        0       6,310
 7,520    7,520   7,520    7,520    11,520
13,160   13,386   7,520    7,520    17,830


 71       73        0        0       79

  94       94       94       94      144
   0        0        0        0       0
 165      167       94       94      223
  24       21        0        0       0
   0        0       94       94      153
  24       21       94       94      153
 188      188      188      188      376
15,040   15,040   15,040   15,040   30,080


 72%      80%      70%      80%     168%




  0        0        0        0         0
 47       43       48       48        48
  0        0       88       88       143
  0        0        0        0         0
47   43   136   136   191
                                                                          100% RE single strategies

                    H2 NG/CCS +       H2 NG/CCS +       H2 NG/CCS +
  H2 NG/CCS +     Behavior Change + Behavior Change + Behavior Change +    Net Zero GHG
Behavior Change + ZELB + Bio/CCS + ZELB + Bio/CCS + ZELB + Bio/CCS +      Biomass + 100%
 ZELB + Bio/CCS       HighBio             NZEB         HighBio + NZEB           RE



     50.0%             34.6%             50.0%              34.6%              50.0%


     0.0%               0.0%              0.0%              0.0%                0.0%
     0.0%              29.0%              0.0%             29.0%               73.0%
    100.0%             71.0%             100.0%            71.0%               27.0%




     50.0%             34.6%             50.0%             34.6%               50.0%
      0.0%             19.0%              0.0%             19.0%               36.5%
     50.0%             46.5%             50.0%             46.5%               13.5%

      188               376               188                376                188
       94               246                94                246                 94
       94               130                94                130                 94


       94               130                 94               130                 94
        0                71                  0                71                 69
       94               175                 94               175                 25
      188               376                188               376                188
        1                 1                  1                 1

     7520               10400             7520              10400               7520
     7520               10400             7520              10400               7520
       0                   0                0                  0                  0
       0                 5707               0                5707               5490
       0                 6586               0                6586               6335
    110062             204504            110062            204504              25291
       0                   0                0                  0               25291
    110062             204504            110062            204504                 0

     7,520             16,107             7,520            16,107              13,010

      6,329             5,827             6,329             5,827              13,552
     10,706            10,432            10,706            10,432              15,262
        0               5,707               0               5,707               5,490
      7,520            10,400             7,520            10,400               7,520
     17,035            16,259            17,035            16,259              28,813
      0.0%             97.9%              0.0%             97.9%               40.5%
   70.2%          99.7%          70.2%          99.7%        49.3%
   20.0%          20.0%           0.0%           0.0%         0.0%



   31.0%          9.8%           31.0%          9.8%          0.0%
    0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%         0.0%
   31.0%          31.0%          31.0%          31.0%         0.0%

    0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%        10.0%
    0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%        4.8%
   25.1%          47.1%          25.1%          47.1%        0.0%


   12.9%          12.0%          12.9%          12.0%         85.2%
  100.0%         100.0%         100.0%         100.0%        100.0%
   10.0%          10.0%          10.0%          10.0%         10.0%

    0%             0%             0%             0%
   90%            90%            90%            90%

   10%            10%            10%            10%

   7520           16107          7520           16107        13010
    188            376            188             376         188
     46            -82             16            -143         137




 -0.000145      -0.000282      -0.000190      -0.000366      0.000034
  0.000160       0.000160       0.000000       0.000000      0.000000
 -0.000622      -0.000622      -0.000800      -0.000800     -0.000800
  0.000080       0.000080       0.000080       0.000080      0.000080
  0.000036       0.000036       0.000036       0.000036      0.000036
  0.000569       0.000123       0.000569       0.000012      0.000338
  0.000000       0.000000       0.000000       0.000000      0.000000

 0.000000       0.000000       0.000000       0.000000      0.000000

 0.000000       0.000000       0.000000       0.000000      0.000000

 0.008491       0.001561       0.008491       0.000175      0.005052

 0.004561       0.001667       0.003411       0.000035      0.005814
 0.004707       0.001721       0.003520       0.000036      0.006000
 0.004558       0.001666       0.003408       0.000035      0.005810
 0.004800       0.001851       0.003521       0.000036      0.006003

 0.003151232    0.002081319    0.003151232    0.001813841
-0.007139191   -0.013866835   -0.009335639   -0.017985467
 0.001984127    0.001984127    0.001984127    0.001984127
0.013655172   0.002956046   0.013655172   0.000281265




  14,548        14,548        14,548        14,548      21,764

  430,581       430,581       430,581       430,581     520,024
   8,397         8,397         8,397         8,397         0

    0             0             0             0          5,125
  22,945        22,945        22,945        22,945      26,889

   7,520        16,107         7,520        16,107      13,010

  15,425         6,837        15,425         6,837      13,880


   106%          47%           106%          47%         64%
   19%           8%            19%           8%          17%


  416,691       416,691       416,691       416,691     503,249

  13,890        13,890        13,890        13,890      16,775

   7,148         3,169         7,148         3,169       6,526

     0             0             0             0           0
  437,730       433,750       437,730       433,750     526,550
   12,942        12,825        12,942        12,825      15,568


   9851          9761          9851          9761         0
   8536          8459          8536          8459         0
     0             0             0             0         5989

   1040          461           1040          461         1628
   1,262         1,262         1,262         1,262

   7,303         6,725         7,303         6,725       9,650


   7303          6725          7303          6725       15639
17154    16486     17154    16486     15639


6,329    5,827     6,329    5,827     13,552


 492      218       492      218       449


10,706   10,432    10,706   10,432    15,262


17,035   16,259    17,035   16,259    28,813

25,571   24,718    25,571   24,718    28,813

8,052    8,052     8,052    8,052       0




-63.60   -122.41   -83.16   -158.76   17.81


16.09     2.96     16.09     0.33     10.62
26.38     4.85     26.38     0.54     29.91



 8.83     0.72      8.83     0.08      8.22
 0.00     0.00      0.00     0.00      0.00
42.47     7.81     42.47     0.87     40.53


 0.00     0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00
10.74     4.14     7.88      0.08     14.93



 2.36     0.40      1.73     0.01      2.70
 9.20     3.36      6.88     0.07     33.17
18.87     6.90     14.11     0.14     26.73
12.58     4.60      9.41     0.10     17.82
 0.00     0.00      0.00     0.00      0.00
 7.00     2.70      5.13     0.05      9.72


11.58     4.23      8.66      0.09    16.40
 5.25     2.02      3.85      0.04     7.29
30.83    11.31     23.03      0.24    63.76
41.57    15.45     30.91      0.32    78.69
25.37    16.76     25.37     14.60
45.82    -82.39    15.59    -142.97   137.02
8.04      8.04    8.04      8.04      8.04
53.85    -74.36   23.62    -134.93   145.06



  0        0        0        0        18




  0         0       0         0      2,102
  0       1,071     0       1,071
  0       5,707     0       5,707     5,490
7,520    10,400   7,520    10,400     7,520
7,520    16,107   7,520    16,107    13,010


  0       71        0        71       69

  94      130       94      130        94
   0       0         0       0          0
  94      201       94      201       163
   0       0         0       0         25
  94      175       94      175         0
  94      175       94      175        25
 188      376      188      376       188
15,040   30,080   15,040   30,080    15,040


 88%     185%      88%     185%       52%




  0         0       0         0        0
 44        44      44        44        0
 88       164      88       164        0
  0         0       0         0        0
132   207   132   207   0
RE single strategies


              High biomass                                              Hydrogen       Hydrogen from Nat.
             imports + 100%   Biomass/CCS with   Behavior Change   Electrolysis + 100% Gas/CCS + 100%
                   RE             100% RE         with 100% RE              RE                RE



                  49.2%            50.0%             50.0%               50.0%              50.0%


                  0.0%             0.0%               0.0%               0.0%                0.0%
                 73.0%             0.0%              73.0%              57.0%               75.0%
                 27.0%            100.0%             27.0%              43.0%               25.0%




                 49.2%             50.0%             50.0%               50.0%              50.0%
                 37.1%              0.0%             36.5%               28.5%              37.5%
                 13.7%             50.0%             13.5%               21.5%              12.5%

                   376              188               188                 188                 188
                   191               94                94                  94                  94
                   185               94                94                  94                  94


                   185               94                94                  94                  94
                   139                0                69                  54                  71
                    52               94                25                  40                  24
                   376              188               188                 188                 188
                                      1

                 14800             7520               7520                7520                7520
                 14800             7520               7520                7520                7520
                   0                 0                  0                   0                   0
                 11154               0                5490                4286                5640
                 12872               0                6335                4947                6509
                 51389            110062             25291               40278               23417
                 51389               0               25291               40278               23417
                   0              110062                0                   0                   0

                 25,954            7,520             13,010             11,806              13,160

                 12,176            14,135            12,225             14,822              11,040
                 14,843            15,439            13,698             11,747              11,593
                 11,154               0               5,490              4,286               5,640
                 14,800             7,520             7,520              7,520               7,520
                 27,019            29,574            25,923             26,569              22,633
                 91.6%              0.0%             44.9%              28.9%               51.1%
 99.7%       48.7%       54.9%        64.0%         64.9%
 20.0%       20.0%       20.0%        20.0%         20.0%



  0.0%        0.0%        0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
  0.0%        0.0%        0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
  0.0%        0.0%        0.0%         0.0%          0.0%

 10.0%       10.0%       10.0%        10.0%         10.0%
 9.9%         0.0%       5.2%         4.8%          4.9%
 0.0%        20.8%       0.0%         0.0%          0.0%


  80.1%       69.2%       84.8%        85.2%         85.1%
 100.0%      100.0%      100.0%       100.0%        100.0%
  10.0%       10.0%       10.0%        10.0%         10.0%

                                       90%            0%
                                       0%            90%

                                       10%           10%

 25954        7520       13010        11806         13160
  376          188        188          188           188
   55          120        134          157           119




 0.000031   -0.000073    0.000045     0.000051      0.000041
 0.000160    0.000160    0.000160     0.000160      0.000160
-0.000622   -0.000622   -0.000622    -0.000622     -0.000622
 0.000080    0.000080    0.000080     0.000080      0.000080
 0.000036    0.000036    0.000036     0.000036      0.000036
 0.000152    0.000569    0.000364     0.000437      0.000336
 0.000000    0.000000    0.000000     0.000000      0.000000

0.000000    0.000000    0.000000     0.000000      0.000000

0.000000    0.000000    0.000000     0.000000      0.000000

0.002009    0.008491    0.005314     0.006445      0.004876

0.001666    0.006676    0.006068     0.005172      0.005089
0.001719    0.006890    0.006262     0.005338      0.005252
0.001665    0.006672    0.006064     0.005169      0.005086
0.001849    0.006956    0.006337     0.005424      0.005338

                                    0.003324847   0.002593164
                                    0.002528052    0.00203824
                                    0.001984127   0.001984127
                              0.010496005   0.008074493




21,764    21,764    19,591      16,161        16,161

520,024   520,024   483,029     825,794       472,949
   0         0         0           0             0

 5,125     5,125     4,761       8,139         4,661
26,889    26,889    24,351      24,300        20,822

25,954     7,520    13,010      11,806        13,160

 935      19,369    11,341      12,493         7,662


  4%       89%       58%         77%           47%
  1%       23%       14%         15%           9%


503,249   503,249   467,447     457,693       457,693

16,775    16,775    15,582      15,256        15,256

 440       9,107     5,332       5,791         3,552

   0         0         0        352,845          0
520,464   529,131   488,361     831,585       476,501
 15,388    15,645    14,439      24,587        14,089


  0         0         0           0             0
  0         0         0           0             0
 5919      6018      5554        9458          5419

 110       2272      1330        842           517
                                 1,251         1,251

 8,132    10,294     8,553       7,647         7,321


14051     16312     14107       17105         12740
14051    16312    14107    17105    12740


12,176   14,135   12,225   14,822   11,040


  30      627      367      399      244


14,843   15,439   13,698   11,747   11,593


27,019   29,574   25,923   26,569   22,633

27,019   29,574   25,923   26,569   22,633

  0        0        0      7,979    7,979
                           7859     7859



16.13    -38.40   21.84    42.78    19.77


 4.22    17.85    10.07    13.55    10.25
11.90    50.27    28.31    22.25    16.83



 0.22    19.29     7.07     5.43     2.52
 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
16.12    68.12    38.38    35.79    27.08


 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
 4.60    17.30    14.18    13.49    13.28



 0.06     4.36     2.33     2.16     1.31
 9.50    38.09    31.16    11.59    11.41
 7.66    30.70    25.11    23.78    23.40
 5.11    20.47    16.74    15.86    15.60
 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
 3.00    11.27     9.24     8.78     8.65


 4.70    18.83    15.40     14.59    14.35
 2.25     8.45     6.93      6.59     6.49
18.32    73.24    59.92    38.84    38.21
22.92    90.54    74.10    52.33    51.49
                           26.53    20.69
55.16    120.26   134.32   157.43   119.03
8.04      8.04     8.04     8.04     8.04
63.20    128.30   142.36   165.47   127.06



  8       30       18       36       16




4,699      0      2,161     2,370    2,399
                             313      554
11,154     0       5,490    4,286    5,640
14,800   7,520     7,520    7,520    7,520
25,954   7,520    13,010   11,806   13,160


 139       0       69       54       71

 185       94       94       94       94
   0        0        0        0        0
 324       94      163      148      165
  52        0       25       40       24
   0       94        0        0        0
  52       94       25       40       24
 376      188      188      188      188
30,080   15,040   15,040   15,040   15,040


111%      51%      58%      57%      66%




  0        0        0        0        0
  0        0        0        0        0
  0       88        0        0        0
  0        0        0        0        0
0   88   0   0   0
100% RE combinations
                                                                           100% RE +
                                                        100% RE +      Bio/CCS + Behavior
                                   100% RE +Bio/CCS Bio/CCS + Behavior + NZEB + ZELB +
100% RE +Bio/CCS 100% RE +Bio/CCS + Behavior + NZEB + NZEB + ZELB +       H2 NG/CCS +
   + Behavior    + Behavior + NZEB      + ZELB          H2 NG/CCS           HighBio



     50.0%             50.0%             50.0%             50.0%             33.8%


      0.0%              0.0%              0.0%              0.0%              0.0%
      0.0%              0.0%              0.0%              0.0%             26.9%
     100.0%            100.0%            100.0%            100.0%            73.1%




     50.0%             50.0%             50.0%             50.0%             33.8%
      0.0%              0.0%              0.0%              0.0%             17.8%
     50.0%             50.0%             50.0%             50.0%             48.4%

      188               188               188               188               376
       94                94                94                94               249
       94                94                94                94               127


       94                94                94                 94               127
        0                 0                 0                  0                67
       94                94                94                 94               182
      188               188               188                188               376
        1                 1                 1                  1                 1

      7520              7520              7520              7520              10160
      7520              7520              7520              7520              10160
        0                 0                 0                 0                  0
        0                 0                 0                 0                5358
        0                 0                 0                 0                6184
     110062            110062            110062            110062            213120
        0                 0                 0                 0                  0
     110062            110062            110062            110062            213120

     7,520             7,520             7,520              7,520            15,518

     12,808            12,808             7,486             5,838             5,371
     13,876            13,876            13,722            10,438            10,183
        0                 0                 0                 0               5,358
      7,520             7,520             7,520             7,520            10,160
     26,684            26,684            21,208            16,276            15,554
      0.0%              0.0%              0.0%              0.0%             99.8%
 54.2%       54.2%       54.8%         72.0%          99.8%
 20.0%        0.0%        0.0%          0.0%           0.0%



  0.0%        0.0%        0.0%         0.0%           0.0%
  0.0%        0.0%        0.0%         0.0%           0.0%
  0.0%        0.0%        0.0%         0.0%           0.0%

 10.0%       10.0%        0.0%          0.0%           0.0%
  0.0%        0.0%        0.0%          0.0%           0.0%
 22.4%       22.4%       21.8%         24.6%          48.0%


  67.6%       67.6%       78.2%        75.4%          52.0%
 100.0%      100.0%      100.0%       100.0%         100.0%
  10.0%       10.0%       20.0%        20.0%          20.0%

                                        0%             0%
                                       90%            90%

                                       10%            10%

  7520        7520        7520         7520           15518
   188         188         188          188             376
    96          65          36           9             -156




-0.000083   -0.000122   -0.000175    -0.000197      -0.000384
 0.000160    0.000000    0.000000     0.000000       0.000000
-0.000622   -0.000800   -0.000800    -0.000800      -0.000800
 0.000080    0.000080    0.000080     0.000080       0.000080
 0.000036    0.000036    0.000036     0.000036       0.000036
 0.000569    0.000569    0.000569     0.000569       0.000001
 0.000000    0.000000    0.000000     0.000000       0.000000

0.000000    0.000000    0.000000     0.000000       0.000000

0.000000    0.000000    0.000000     0.000000       0.000000

0.008491    0.008491    0.008491     0.008491       0.000020

0.006137    0.005250    0.005180     0.003204       0.000026
0.006333    0.005418    0.005346     0.003306       0.000026
0.006133    0.005247    0.005177     0.003202       0.000026
0.006407    0.005420    0.005348     0.003308       0.000026

                                     0.003151232    0.001788951
                                    -0.009663294   -0.018867948
                                     0.001984127    0.001984127
                              0.013655172   3.23702E-05




19,591    19,591    19,591      14,548        14,548

483,029   483,029   498,610     444,471       444,471
   0         0         0           0             0

 4,761     4,761      0           0             0
24,351    24,351    19,591      14,548        14,548

 7,520     7,520     7,520       7,520        15,518

16,831    16,831    12,071       7,028         -971


 86%       86%       62%         48%           -7%
 20%       20%       15%         8%            -1%


467,447   467,447   467,447     416,691       416,691

15,582    15,582    31,163      27,779        27,779

 7,912     7,912     5,674       3,257         -450

   0         0         0           0             0
490,941   490,941   504,285     447,728       444,021
 14,516    14,516    14,910      13,238        13,128


  0         0         0           0             0
  0         0         0           0             0
 5584      5584        0           0             0

 1974      1974      1415        474            -65
                                 1,262         1,262

 9,197     9,197     8,639       6,737         6,198


14781     14781      8639        6737          6198
14781    14781    8639     6737      6198


12,808   12,808   7,486    5,838    5,371


 545      545      391      224       -31


13,876   13,876   13,722   10,438   10,183


26,684   26,684   21,208   16,276   15,554

26,684   26,684   21,208   16,276   15,554

  0      7,979     N/A     8,052    8,052




-40.57   -60.14   -88.05   -88.05   -170.50


16.09    16.09    16.09    16.09     0.04
45.25    45.25    45.25    26.38     0.06



16.76    16.76    12.02     4.02     0.00
 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
61.33    61.33    61.33    42.47     0.10


 0.00     0.00     0.00    0.00      0.00
14.34    12.13    11.97    7.40      0.06



 3.49     2.95     2.09     0.74     0.00
31.51    26.96    26.60     6.46     0.05
25.40    21.73    21.44    13.26     0.11
16.93    14.49    14.29     8.84     0.07
 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
 9.34     7.90     7.80     4.82     0.04


15.58    13.33    13.15     8.13      0.07
 7.00     5.93     5.85     3.62      0.03
60.60    51.82    51.13    21.64      0.17
74.94    63.95    63.10    29.04      0.23
                           25.37     14.40
95.70    65.14    36.38     8.83    -155.76
 8.04    8.04     8.04     8.04      8.04
103.74   73.18    44.42    16.87    -147.72



 28       28        0        0        0




  0        0        0        0         0
                             0       1,091
  0        0        0        0       5,358
7,520    7,520    7,520    7,520    10,160
7,520    7,520    7,520    7,520    15,518


  0        0        0        0        67

  94       94       94       94      127
   0        0        0        0       0
  94       94       94       94      194
   0        0        0        0       0
  94       94       94       94      182
  94       94       94       94      182
 188      188      188      188      376
15,040   15,040   15,040   15,040   30,080


 56%      56%      71%      92%     193%




  0        0        0        0        0
  0        0        0        0        0
 88       88       88       88       170
  0        0        0        0        0
88   88   88   88   170
Others
                                       100% RE +
   100% RE +         100% RE +       Hydrogen Nat.    100% RE + H2      100% RE + H2
  Hydrogen Nat.    Hydrogen Nat.       Gas/CCS +    NG/CCS + Behavior NG/CCS + Behavior
   Gas/CCS +         Gas/CCS +     Bio/CCS + ZELB + Change + ZELB +    Change + ZELB +
    Bio/CCS       Bio/CCS + ZELB        HighBio         Bio/CCS       Bio/CCS + HighBio



     50.0%            50.0%             37.5%            50.0%             33.8%


      0.0%            0.0%              0.0%              0.0%              0.0%
      0.0%            0.0%             31.0%              0.0%             26.9%
     100.0%          100.0%            69.0%             100.0%            73.1%




     50.0%            50.0%            37.5%             50.0%             33.8%
      0.0%             0.0%            19.4%              0.0%             17.8%
     50.0%            50.0%            43.1%             50.0%             48.4%

         188           188               376               188              376
          94            94               235                94              249
          94            94               141                94              127


           94           94               141                94               127
            0            0                73                 0                67
           94           94               162                94               182
          188          188               376               188               376
            1            1                 1                 1                 1

      7520            7520              11280             7520              10160
      7520            7520              11280             7520              10160
        0               0                  0                0                  0
        0               0                5828               0                5358
        0               0                6726               0                6184
     110062          110062            189856            110062            213120
        0               0                  0                0                  0
     110062          110062            189856            110062            213120

         7,520        7,520            17,108             7,520            15,518

     11,395            6,401            5,841             5,838             5,371
     11,773           11,624           11,318            10,438            10,183
        0                0              5,828               0               5,358
      7,520            7,520           11,280             7,520            10,160
     23,169           18,026           17,160            16,276            15,554
      0.0%             0.0%            99.8%              0.0%             99.8%
   63.9%          64.7%         99.7%          72.0%          99.8%
   20.0%          20.0%         20.0%          20.0%          20.0%



   0.0%           0.0%           0.0%          0.0%           0.0%
   0.0%           0.0%           0.0%          0.0%           0.0%
   0.0%           0.0%           0.0%          0.0%           0.0%

   10.0%           0.0%          0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
    0.0%           0.0%          0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
   23.0%          22.4%         38.9%          24.6%          48.0%


   67.0%          77.6%          61.1%         75.4%          52.0%
  100.0%         100.0%         100.0%        100.0%         100.0%
   10.0%          20.0%          20.0%         20.0%          20.0%

    0%             0%             0%            0%             0%
   90%            90%            90%           90%            90%

    10%           10%            10%           10%            10%

   7520           7520          17108          7520           15518
    188            188           376            188            376
     84             55           -77             39            -93




 -0.000086      -0.000139      -0.000242     -0.000153      -0.000299
  0.000160       0.000160       0.000160      0.000160       0.000160
 -0.000622      -0.000622      -0.000622     -0.000622      -0.000622
  0.000080       0.000080       0.000080      0.000080       0.000080
  0.000036       0.000036       0.000036      0.000036       0.000036
  0.000569       0.000569       0.000115      0.000569       0.000115
  0.000000       0.000000       0.000000      0.000000       0.000000

 0.000000       0.000000       0.000000      0.000000       0.000000

 0.000000       0.000000       0.000000      0.000000       0.000000

 0.008491       0.008491       0.001431      0.008491       0.001432

 0.005186       0.005106       0.001671      0.004384       0.001659
 0.005352       0.005269       0.001724      0.004524       0.001712
 0.005183       0.005103       0.001670      0.004381       0.001658
 0.005438       0.005356       0.001855      0.004620       0.001843

 0.003151232    0.003151232   0.002061282    0.003151232    0.002061407
-0.004229963   -0.006836646   -0.01190067   -0.007515896   -0.014675071
 0.001984127    0.001984127   0.001984127    0.001984127    0.001984127
0.013655172   0.013655172   0.002755679   0.013655172   0.002756931




  16,161        16,161        16,161        14,548        14,548

  472,949       488,206       488,206       444,471       444,471
     0             0             0             0             0

   4,661          0             0             0             0
  20,822        16,161        16,161        14,548        14,548

   7,520         7,520        17,108         7,520        15,518

  13,302         8,641         -947          7,028         -971


   82%           53%           -6%           48%           -7%
   16%           10%           -1%           8%            -1%


  457,693       457,693       457,693       416,691       416,691

  15,256        30,513        30,513        27,779        27,779

   6,166         4,005         -439          3,257         -450

     0             0             0             0             0
  479,116       492,211       487,767       447,728       444,021
   14,166        14,553        14,422        13,238        13,128


    0             0             0             0             0
    0             0             0             0             0
   5449            0             0             0             0

   897           582            -64          474            -65
   1,251         1,251         1,251         1,262         1,262

   7,701         7,387         6,741         6,737         6,198


  13150          7387          6741          6737          6198
13150    7387      6741     6737      6198


11,395   6,401    5,841     5,838    5,371


 424      276       -30      224       -31


11,773   11,624   11,318    10,438   10,183


23,169   18,026   17,160    16,276   15,554

23,169   18,026   17,160    16,276   15,554

7,979    7,979    7,979     8,052    8,052
7859     7859     7859



-41.24   -68.48   -118.13   -68.48   -132.61


17.85    17.85     3.01     16.09     2.71
29.31    29.31     4.94     26.38     4.45



 7.61     4.95     -0.09     4.02     -0.09
 0.00     0.00     0.00      0.00     0.00
47.16    47.16     7.95     42.47     7.16


 0.00     0.00     0.00      0.00     0.00
13.52    13.32     4.61     10.34     4.13



 2.31     1.48     -0.06     1.04     -0.06
11.62    11.44     3.74      8.84     3.35
23.85    23.48     7.68     18.14     6.87
15.90    15.65     5.12     12.10     4.58
 0.00     0.00     0.00      0.00     0.00
 8.81     8.68     3.00      6.73     2.69


14.63    14.40     4.71     11.13     4.21
 6.61     6.51     2.25      5.05     2.01
38.95    38.34    12.59     29.63    11.25
52.47    51.66    17.20     39.97    15.38
25.14    25.14    16.45     25.37    16.60
83.52    55.48    -76.54    39.33    -93.47
8.04     8.04      8.04    8.04      8.04
91.56    63.52    -68.50   47.37    -85.44



 27        0        0        0        0




  0        0         0       0         0
  0        0       1,082     0       1,091
  0        0       5,828     0       5,358
7,520    7,520    11,280   7,520    10,160
7,520    7,520    17,108   7,520    15,518


  0        0       73        0       67

  94       94      141       94      127
   0        0       0         0       0
  94       94      214       94      194
   0        0       0         0       0
  94       94      162       94      182
  94       94      162       94      182
 188      188      376      188      376
15,040   15,040   30,080   15,040   30,080


 65%      83%     175%      92%     193%




  0        0        0        0        0
  0        0        0        0        0
 88       88       152      88       170
  0        0        0        0        0
88   88   152   88   170
Other combinations



                     ZELB + Net Zero                    H2/CCS + Net Zero
 ZELB + H2/CCS            Bio          ZELB + Bio/CCS         Bio         H2/CCS + Bio/CCS



      50.0%              50.0%             50.0%             50.0%             50.0%


      0.0%                0.0%             0.0%               0.0%             0.0%
     75.0%               73.0%             0.0%              75.0%             0.0%
     25.0%               27.0%            100.0%             25.0%            100.0%




      50.0%              50.0%             50.0%             50.0%             50.0%
      37.5%              36.5%              0.0%             37.5%              0.0%
      12.5%              13.5%             50.0%             12.5%             50.0%

       188                188               188               188               188
        94                 94                94                94                94
        94                 94                94                94                94


        94                 94                94                94                94
        71                 69                 0                71                 0
        24                 25                94                24                94
       188                188               188               188               188
                                              1                                   1

       7520               7520             7520               7520             7520
       7520               7520             7520               7520             7520
         0                  0                0                  0                0
       5640               5490               0                5640               0
       6509               6335               0                6509               0
      23417              25291            110062             23417            110062
      23417              25291               0               23417               0
         0                  0             110062                0             110062

     13,160              13,010            7,520             13,160            7,520

      6,611               8,872             9,430             9,062             9,404
     11,739              15,424            15,602            11,807            11,987
      5,640               5,490               0               5,640               0
      7,520               7,520             7,520             7,520             7,520
     18,349              24,296            25,032            20,869            21,391
     85.3%               61.9%              0.0%             62.2%              0.0%
  64.1%        48.8%       48.2%        63.7%         62.7%
  20.0%         0.0%       20.0%         0.0%         20.0%



  36.0%        36.0%       31.0%        30.9%         31.0%
   0.0%         0.0%        0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
  31.0%        31.0%       31.0%        31.0%         31.0%

   0.0%         0.0%        0.0%         5.0%          5.0%
   4.9%         4.8%        0.0%         5.0%          0.0%
   0.0%         0.0%       20.7%         0.0%         23.2%


   28.2%        28.2%       17.3%        28.2%         9.8%
  100.0%       100.0%      100.0%       100.0%        100.0%
   10.0%        10.0%       10.0%         5.0%         5.0%

    0%                                    0%            0%
   90%                                   90%           90%

   10%                                   10%           10%

  13160        13010        7520        13160          7520
   188          188          188         188            188
    93          111           97          88             76




  0.000019     0.000011   -0.000118     0.000022     -0.000105
  0.000160     0.000000    0.000160     0.000000      0.000160
 -0.000622    -0.000800   -0.000622    -0.000800     -0.000622
  0.000080     0.000080    0.000080     0.000080      0.000080
  0.000036     0.000036    0.000036     0.000036      0.000036
  0.000180     0.000217    0.000569     0.000215      0.000569
  0.000000     0.000000    0.000000     0.000000      0.000000

 0.000000     0.000000    0.000000     0.000000      0.000000

 0.000000     0.000000    0.000000     0.000000      0.000000

 0.002454     0.003237    0.008491     0.003206      0.008491

 0.005168     0.005873    0.006726     0.004162      0.005298
 0.005333     0.006061    0.006941     0.004295      0.005468
 0.005165     0.005870    0.006722     0.004159      0.005295
 0.005419     0.006064    0.007007     0.004297      0.005552

0.002219203                           0.002301326   0.003151232
0.000933042                            0.00107579   -0.00514525
0.001984127                           0.001984127   0.001984127
0.004334889                       0.00515612   0.013655172




  16,161      21,764    21,764      16,161       16,161

  472,949     520,024   520,024    465,321       465,321
   9,223       10,141    10,141     9,074         9,074

    0           0         0          2,293        2,293
  25,384      31,905    31,905      27,529       27,529

  13,160      13,010     7,520      13,160        7,520

  12,224      18,896    24,385      14,369       20,009


   76%         87%       112%        89%          124%
   15%         23%       29%         17%          24%


  457,693     503,249   503,249    457,693       457,693

  15,256      16,775    16,775      7,628         7,628

   5,666       8,884    11,465      6,660         9,275

     0           0         0          0             0
  478,616     528,909   531,490    471,982       474,596
   14,151      15,638    15,714     13,955        14,032


  10771       11903     11961       10622        10681
  9334        10314     10365       9204         9255
     0           0         0        2684          2699

   824         2216      2860        969          1349
   1,251                            1,251         1,251

   7,629      10,238    10,882      7,773         8,153


   7629       10238     10882       10457        10852
18400    22141    22843    21079    21533


6,611    8,872    9,430    9,062    9,404


 390      612      789      458      638


11,739   15,424   15,602   11,807   11,987


18,349   24,296   25,032   20,869   21,391

27,683   34,611   35,396   30,073   30,646

7,979      0        0      7,979    7,979




 9.09     5.90    -62.55   10.33    -49.70


5.16      6.80    17.85     6.74    17.85
8.47     19.17    50.27    11.07    29.31



 2.02     7.17    24.28     3.11    11.45
 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
13.63    25.97    68.12    17.81    47.16


 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
13.48    15.08    17.43    10.69    13.81



 2.11     3.71     5.53     1.97     3.54
11.58    33.51    38.37     9.33    11.88
23.76    27.01    30.93    19.14    24.36
15.84    18.01    20.62    12.76    16.24
 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
 8.78     9.82    11.35     6.96     8.99


14.58    16.57    18.97    11.74    14.94
 6.58     7.37     8.51     5.22     6.74
38.81    64.41    73.79    31.22    39.78
52.28    79.49    91.22    41.91    53.59
17.71                      18.36    25.14
92.71    111.37   96.78    88.41    76.20
 8.04     8.04     8.04    8.04     8.04
100.74   119.40   104.82   96.45    84.23



  0        0        0        5       13




   0       0        0       1,448     0
  925                        675      0
 5,640    5,490     0       5,640     0
 7,520    7,520   7,520     7,520   7,520
13,160   13,010   7,520    13,160   7,520


 71       69        0       71        0

  94       94       94       94       94
   0        0        0        0        0
 165      163       94      165       94
  24       25        0       24        0
   0        0       94        0       94
  24       25       94       24       94
 188      188      188      188      188
15,040   15,040   15,040   15,040   15,040


 82%      62%      60%      72%      70%




  0        0        0        0        0
 48       53       53       47       48
  0        0       88        0       88
  0        0        0        0        0
48   53   141   47   136
                 Comb of 3



Net Zero Bio +   ZELB + H2/CCS +   ZELB + H2/CCS +   ZELB + Net Zero   H2/CCS + Net Zero
  Bio/CCS          Net Zero Bio        Bio/CCS        Bio + Bio/CCS      Bio + Bio/CCS



   50.0%              50.0%            50.0%             50.0%              50.0%


    0.0%               0.0%             0.0%             0.0%                0.0%
    0.0%              75.0%             0.0%             0.0%                0.0%
   100.0%             25.0%            100.0%           100.0%              100.0%




   50.0%              50.0%            50.0%             50.0%              50.0%
    0.0%              37.5%             0.0%              0.0%               0.0%
   50.0%              12.5%            50.0%             50.0%              50.0%

     188               188              188               188                188
      94                94               94                94                 94
      94                94               94                94                 94


      94                94                94               94                 94
       0                71                 0                0                  0
      94                24                94               94                 94
     188               188               188              188                188
       1                                   1                1                  1

    7520               7520             7520              7520               7520
    7520               7520             7520              7520               7520
      0                  0                0                 0                  0
      0                5640               0                 0                  0
      0                6509               0                 0                  0
   110062             23417            110062            110062             110062
      0               23417               0                 0                  0
   110062                0             110062            110062             110062

    7,520             13,160            7,520            7,520              7,520

   12,253              6,611            6,940             9,430              9,404
   15,678             11,739           11,919            15,602             11,987
      0                5,640              0                 0                  0
    7,520              7,520            7,520             7,520              7,520
   27,931             18,349           18,859            25,032             21,391
    0.0%              85.3%             0.0%              0.0%               0.0%
 48.0%        64.1%          63.1%        48.2%         62.7%
  0.0%         0.0%          20.0%         0.0%          0.0%



 31.0%        36.0%          31.0%        31.0%         31.0%
  0.0%         0.0%           0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
 31.0%        31.0%          31.0%        31.0%         31.0%

  5.0%         0.0%           0.0%         0.0%          5.0%
  0.0%         4.9%           0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
 21.0%         0.0%          22.9%        20.7%         23.2%


  12.0%        28.2%         15.1%         17.3%        9.8%
 100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%
   5.0%        10.0%         10.0%         10.0%        5.0%

                0%            0%                         0%
               90%           90%                        90%

               10%           10%                        10%

  7520        13160          7520          7520         7520
   188         188            188           188          188
    82          70             62            66           46




-0.000128     0.000011     -0.000131     -0.000155    -0.000146
 0.000000     0.000000      0.000160      0.000000     0.000000
-0.000800    -0.000800     -0.000622     -0.000800    -0.000800
 0.000080     0.000080      0.000080      0.000080     0.000080
 0.000036     0.000036      0.000036      0.000036     0.000036
 0.000569     0.000083      0.000569      0.000569     0.000569
 0.000000     0.000000      0.000000      0.000000     0.000000

0.000000     0.000000      0.000000      0.000000     0.000000

0.000000     0.000000      0.000000      0.000000     0.000000

0.008491     0.001247      0.008491      0.008491     0.008491

0.005964     0.004119      0.005263      0.005937     0.004271
0.006155     0.004251      0.005431      0.006127     0.004408
0.005960     0.004116      0.005260      0.005933     0.004268
0.006157     0.004253      0.005516      0.006130     0.004410

            0.001986196    0.003151232                0.003151232
            0.000548375   -0.006444277               -0.007171079
            0.001984127    0.001984127                0.001984127
          0.002004818   0.013655172             0.013655172




21,764      16,161        16,161      21,764      16,161

511,637     472,949       472,949     520,024     465,321
 9,978       9,223         9,223       10,141      9,074

 2,521        0             0           0          2,293
34,263      25,384        25,384      31,905      27,529

 7,520      13,160         7,520       7,520       7,520

26,743      12,224        17,864      24,385      20,009


 123%        76%           111%        112%        124%
 32%         15%           22%         29%         24%


503,249     457,693       457,693     503,249     457,693

 8,387      15,256        15,256      16,775       7,628

12,574       5,666         8,281      11,465       9,275

   0           0             0           0           0
524,211     478,616       481,230     531,490     474,596
 15,499      14,151        14,228      15,714      14,032


11797       10771         10830       11961       10681
10223       9334          9385        10365       9255
 2981          0             0           0         2699

 3136        824           1204        2860        1349
             1,251         1,251                   1,251

11,159       7,629         8,009      10,882       8,153


14140        7629          8009       10882       10852
25937    18400    18839    22843    21533


12,253   6,611    6,940    9,430    9,404


 866      390      570      789      638


15,678   11,739   11,919   15,602   11,987


27,931   18,349   18,859   25,032   21,391

38,154   27,683   28,243   35,396   30,646

  0      7,979    7,979      0      7,979




-67.30    5.34    -63.11   -82.12   -69.26


17.85    2.62     17.85    17.85    17.85
50.27    4.30     29.31    50.27    29.31



26.63    1.03     10.23    24.28    11.45
 0.00    0.00      0.00     0.00     0.00
68.12    6.92     47.16    68.12    47.16


 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
15.31    10.58    13.72    15.24    10.97



 5.33     1.66     3.14     4.84     2.82
34.02     9.23    11.80    33.87     9.57
27.42    18.94    24.20    27.30    19.64
18.28    12.63    16.14    18.20    13.09
 0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
 9.97     6.89     8.93     9.93     7.14


16.82    11.62    14.84    16.75    12.05
 7.48     5.17     6.70     7.45     5.36
65.40    30.90    39.52    65.11    32.05
80.72    41.48    53.24    80.35    43.01
         15.85    25.14             25.14
81.54    69.59    62.42    66.36    46.05
8.04     8.04     8.04     8.04     8.04
89.57    77.63    70.46    74.39    54.09



 15        0        0        0       13




  0         0       0        0        0
           925      0                 0
  0       5,640     0        0        0
7,520     7,520   7,520    7,520    7,520
7,520    13,160   7,520    7,520    7,520


  0       71        0        0        0

  94       94       94       94       94
   0        0        0        0        0
  94      165       94       94       94
   0       24        0        0        0
  94        0       94       94       94
  94       24       94       94       94
 188      188      188      188      188
15,040   15,040   15,040   15,040   15,040


 54%      82%      80%      60%      70%




  0        0        0        0        0
 53       48       48       53       48
 88        0       88       88       88
  0        0        0        0        0
141   48   136   141   136
All 4                                  Other combinations


  ZELB + H2/CCS
  +Net Zero Bio +                       ZELB + H2/CCS +
     Bio/CCS        All 4 + 100% CCS   Bio/CCS + Behavior



        50.0%            50.0%


         0.0%            0.0%
         0.0%            0.0%
        100.0%          100.0%




        50.0%            50.0%
         0.0%             0.0%
        50.0%            50.0%

         188              188
          94               94
          94               94


          94               94
           0                0
          94               94
         188              188
           1                1

         7520            7520
         7520            7520
           0               0
           0               0
           0               0
        110062          110062
           0               0
        110062          110062

        7,520            7,520

         6,940           6,940
        11,919          11,919
           0               0
         7,520           7,520
        18,859          18,859
         0.0%            0.0%
   63.1%          63.1%
    0.0%           0.0%



   31.0%          31.0%
    0.0%           0.0%
   31.0%          31.0%

    0.0%           0.0%
    0.0%           0.0%
   22.9%          22.9%


   15.1%          15.1%
  100.0%         100.0%
   10.0%          10.0%

    0%             0%
   90%            90%

   10%            10%

   7520           7520
    188            188
     32             27




 -0.000172      -0.000183
  0.000000       0.000000
 -0.000800      -0.000800
  0.000080       0.000000
  0.000036       0.000000
  0.000569       0.000569
  0.000000       0.000000

 0.000000       0.000000

 0.000000       0.000000

 0.008491       0.008491

 0.004230       0.004230
 0.004365       0.004365
 0.004227       0.004227
 0.004367       0.004367

 0.003151232    0.003151232
-0.008442177   -0.008990553
 0.001984127    0.001984127
0.013655172   0.013655172




  16,161        16,161

  472,949       472,949
   9,223         9,223

    0             0
  25,384        25,384

   7,520         7,520

  17,864        17,864


   111%          111%
   22%           22%


  457,693       457,693

  15,256        15,256

   8,281         8,281

     0             0
  481,230       481,230
   14,228        14,228


  10830         10830
  9385          9385
     0             0

   1204          1204
   1,251         1,251

   8,009         8,009


   8009          8009
18839    18839


6,940    6,940


 570      570


11,919   11,919


18,859   18,859

28,243   28,243

7,979    7,979




-82.68   -88.05


17.85    17.85
29.31    29.31



10.23    10.23
 0.00     0.00
47.16    47.16


 0.00     0.00
10.86    10.86



 2.49     2.49
 9.48     9.48
19.45    19.45
12.97    12.97
 0.00     0.00
 7.07     7.07


11.93    11.93
 5.31     5.31
31.74    31.74
42.60    42.60
25.14    25.14
32.22    26.85
8.04     8.04
40.25    34.88



  0        0




  0        0
  0        0
  0        0
7,520    7,520
7,520    7,520


  0        0

  94       94
   0        0
  94       94
   0        0
  94       94
  94       94
 188      188
15,040   15,040


 80%      80%




  0        0
 48       54
 88       98
  0
136   152
Of 60%+ solutions:




        Min           Max




       3,460         28,012

       5,371         18,942
      10,183         15,840
         0           11,154
       2,000         28,012
      15,554         34,359
       0.0%          99.9%
 12.7%       190.7%
  0.0%        50.0%



  0.0%       67.0%
  0.0%       67.0%
  0.0%       67.0%

  0.0%       20.0%
  0.0%       11.3%
  0.0%       48.0%

  41.4%       41.4%
  9.8%        95.3%
 100.0%      100.0%
  0.0%        20.0%

   0%         90%
   0%         90%

  10%         10%

  3460       28012
   50         376
  -156        229




 0.000000    0.000400
-0.000800   -0.000356
 0.000000    0.000080
 0.000000    0.000036
 0.000001    0.000569
 0.000000    0.000000

0.000000    0.000000

0.000000    0.000000
14,548      21,764

423,636     825,794
   0         21,918

  0          9,920
14,548      44,769

 3,460      28,012

-3,727      31,760


 -17%        146%
  -4%         38%


416,691     503,249

  0         33,550

-1,752      14,933

   0        352,845
428,971     831,585
 12,683      24,587


  0          25995
  0       22525.99393
   0         11647

 -437        3725
 1,251       1,262

 6,198      11,747


 6198        21859
 6198     39083


5,371     18,942


 -121     1,028


10,183    15,840


15,554    34,359

15,554    49,707

  0       8,052




-170.50   48.77


 0.03     17.85
 0.06     50.27



 -3.71    28.61
 0.00      0.00
 0.10     68.12


 0.00      0.00
-18.05    27.14



 -0.06    10.88
-41.47    60.07
-33.43    48.41
-22.29    32.28
 0.00      0.00
-11.76    17.67


 -20.50    29.70
  -8.82    13.26
 -79.62   115.49
 -97.67   142.62
  14.40    26.53
-155.76   228.82
 8.04      8.04
-147.72   236.86



  0        45




  0        4,699
  0        1,091
  0       11,154
2,000     28,012
3,460     28,012




   0       188
   0       188
  43       324


  0        182
 50        376
4,000     30,080


  0         2




  0        253
  0        116
  0        170
  0        348
0   348
     Stress test cases:



                                     BAU Case H3     BAU Case H3
     BAU Case H2 (H2 electrolysis)   (coal/CCS H2)   (NG/CCS H2)




36
                 5

                22




kWh per kg H2:          100%           0%            0%
             49.14       0%           100%          100%
$/kg (assume
$0.12/kWh):              0%            0%            0%

$             5.90
        0




                       #VALUE!       #VALUE!     0.000892857
                          0            N/A
                     0.001984127   0.001984127
            from NG./CCS:   0.000892857




803,824        803,824        803,824




1,135,679
1,939,503      803,824        803,824


141.28%
MINIMUM:            MAXIMUM:
           -15.06    228.82
CA biomass                                                                                      Liquid fuels
                                                                   Low           High
                      bgal/day         Tgal/yr         btu/gal     mdt (eq)/yr                  gge/dt
Woody energy crops                                                           0.0         20.0             80
Woody residues                                                              17.0         24.0             80
Herbaceous energy crops                                                      4.5         21.0             80
Crop residues                                                                4.0          7.0             80
MSW                                                                         10.0         40.0             80
Animal waste                                                                 5.5          9.0             80
Wastewater                         3             1.1             6           0.8          0.8             80

TOTAL                                                                      41.8         121.8

MSW landfill gas          (estimated backward from GW capacity)             0.9           0.9
Byproduct electricity from biofuels:                                                    120.0             80
Byproduct biogas from biofuels:                                            36.3         120.0             80

Biomass preferences:
Biofuels              Fraction
Woody energy crops            100%                                          0.0          20.0
Woody residues                100%                                         17.0          24.0
Herbaceous energy crops       100%                                          4.5          21.0
Crop residues                 100%                                          4.0           7.0
MSW                           100%                                         10.0          40.0
Subtotal                                                                   35.5         112.0
Byproduct electricity                                                      35.5         112.0
Byproduct biogas                                                           35.5         112.0

Biogas
Byproduct biogas (above)                                                                                  80
Animal waste                    100%                                        5.5           9.0
Wastewater                      100%                                        0.8           0.8
Subtotal                                                                    6.3           9.8

Electricity
Byproduct electricity (above)

Woody energy crops               0%                                         0.0           0.0
Woody residues                   0%                                         0.0           0.0
Subtotal                                                                    0.0           0.0

Total biofuel + biogas
                              Natural gas                                      Electricity
Low             High                          Low              High                                   Low
bgge/yr                       Mbtu/dt         Tbtu/yr                          kWh/Mbtu Effic         TWh/yr
          0.0           1.6             8.5                0            170           293       40%             0.0
          1.4           1.9             8.5             145             204          293        40%            16.9
          0.4           1.7             8.5               38            179          293        40%             4.5
          0.3           0.6             8.5               34              60         293        40%             4.0
          0.8           3.2             8.5               85            340          293        40%            10.0
          0.4           0.7             1.2              6.6           10.8          293        40%             0.8
          0.1           0.1             8.5              6.6             6.6         293        40%             0.8

          3.3           9.7                             315            969                                     36.9

(n/a)           (n/a)                8.5                 8.1            8.1             293     40%             0.9
                        9.6    6.351438                               762.2             293     40%
          2.9           9.6 0.07887931                    3               9



          0.0           1.6
          1.4           1.9
          0.4           1.7
          0.3           0.6
          0.8           3.2
          2.8           9.0
          2.8           9.0    6.351438                 225            711               293    40%            26.4
          2.8           9.0 0.07887931                   2.8            8.8


          0.0           0.1             8.5              2.8            8.8
          0.4           0.7                              6.6           10.8
          0.1           0.1                              6.6            6.6
          0.5           0.9                             16.0           26.2


                                                                                                               26.4

                                                                                                                0.0
                                                                                                                0.0
                                                                                                               26.4

          3.4           9.8
High                      Low           High
               CF         GW
        19.9        85%           0.0            2.7
        23.9        85%           2.3            3.2
        20.9        85%           0.6            2.8
         7.0        85%           0.5            0.9
        39.9        85%           1.3            5.4
         1.3        85%           0.1            0.2
         0.8        85%           0.1            0.1

       113.6                      5.0           15.3

         0.9        85%         0.127          0.127
        89.4        85%                          12.0




        83.4        85%           3.6           11.2




        83.4                      3.6           11.2

         0.0                      0.0            0.0
         0.0                      0.0            0.0
        83.4                      3.6           11.2
Raw data                                                           Chart data

Fuel demand Cum demand GHG emiss                     Offset        Fuel demand GHG emiss
                   -100          0                            0            -100          0
         50         -50        20                             0            -100        20
         50           0       100                             1             -50        20
          5           5       100                             1             -50       100
          5          10        20                             2               0       100
         20          30        10                             2               0       100
         70         100          0                            3               5       100
                                                              3               5        20
                                                              4              10        20
                                                              4              10        10
                                                              5              30        10
                                                              5              30          0


                                     GHG emiss
                                           120

                                           100

                                           80

                                           60
                                                                          GHG emiss
                                           40

                                           20

                                             0
            -150       -100          -50         0            50
                                  Raw portrait data (hide)


                                                                    Business As     Take 1
                                                                     Usual "C"     (Added to
                                       0            0         0        2050          BAU)




                                                                                 BAU with
                                                                    Business As electrificatio
Electricity breakdown                1990         2005       2020   Usual 2050     n only
Electricity
Fossil/CCS                                                             0.0%          0.0%
Natural gas (without
CCS)                                                                   40.0%        40.0%
Biomass                                                                 2.7%         1.8%
Other renewables                                                        0.0%         0.0%
Nuclear                                                                 0.0%         0.0%

Storage fraction                                                       0.0%          0.0%

Demand                  TWh/yr                                          467          688
                        Ggge/yr                                         13.8         20.3

Biomass elec            Ggge/yr                                          1.0          1.0
NG elec                 Ggge/yr                                         18.4         27.1
Total elec              Ggge/yr                                         33.2         48.4

Carbon fuels
Biomass fraction of
Gaseous fuels                                                          2.4%          2.3%
Liquid fuels                                                           4.6%          6.7%
Gaseous fuels
Biogas                  Ggge/yr                                          1.0          1.0
Natural gas             Ggge/yr                                         41.3         42.9
Total gas               Ggge/yr                                         42.3         43.9
Liquid fuels
Biofuels                Ggge/yr                                          2.0          2.0
Petroleum               Ggge/yr                                         41.6         27.9
Total liquid            Ggge/yr                                         43.6         29.9
Electricity
Biomass
Total biogas +          Ggge/yr                                         1.0           1.0
biofuels
Biomass                 Ggge/yr                                          3.0          3.0
Fossil fuels            Ggge/yr                                         82.9         70.8
Total                   Ggge/yr                                         85.9         73.8
Hydrogen              TgH2/yr                        0.0      0.0
                      Ggge/yr                        0.0      0.0

Total energy          Ggge/yr                        99.8     94.1

Refining (% of BAU)                                 100%      85%

Equivalent biomass supply
Biomass electricity  mdt/yr                          13       13
Gaseous fuel         mdt/yr                          13       13
Liquid fuel          mdt/yr                          25       25
Total                mdt/yr                          50       50
                     (check)                         50       50

California
Best GHG estimate     mdt/yr                         50       50
Imported
Best GHG estimate     mdt/yr                          0        0
Total
Best GHG estimate     mdt/yr                         50       50
Detailed GHG
breakdown             MtCO2e/yr
Electricity
Best GHG estimate     MtCO2e/yr   91    88    110    151      222
Load balancing        MtCO2e/yr   62     0     0     104      154
Non-load balancing    MtCO2e/yr   28    88    110     47       69
Gaseous fuel
Best GHG estimate     MtCO2e/yr   0     0     0      230      162
Liquid fuels
Best GHG estimate     MtCO2e/yr   0     0     0      450      291
Hydrogen
Best GHG estimate     MtCO2e/yr   0     0     0       0        0
Net emissions
Total energy
emissions             MtCO2e/yr   386   414   415    830      676
Non-energy
emissions             MtCO2e/yr   40    58    92     117      117

Demand by fuel

Gaseous fuel          Million
Best GHG estimate     therms/yr                     48,827   50,693
                      Ggge/yr                       42,311   43,928
Liquid fuels          Ggge/yr                       43,637   29,856
Total (lgas + liq)    Ggge/yr                       85,948   73,784


Charts

GHG by category
Electricity           MtCO2e/yr   91    88    110    151      222
                      MtCO2e/yr
  Load balancing electricity      62     0     0     104      154
                      MtCO2e/yr
  Non load-balancing electricity    28    88    110    47     69
Gaseous fuel          MtCO2e/yr                       230    162
Liquid fuel           MtCO2e/yr                       450    291
Carbon fuels          MtCO2e/yr     296   327   305   679    453
Hydrogen              MtCO2e/yr                         0      0
Net emissions         MtCO2e/yr     386   414   415   830    676
                      M
Non-energy emissions tCO2e/yr        40    58    92   117    117
2020 Target           MtCO2e/yr     386   386   386   386    386
2050 Target           MtCO2e/yr      77    77    77    77     77

Electricity generation
Nuclear                TWh/yr                           0      0
Fossil/CCS             TWh/yr                           0      0
Nat. Gas Backup        TWh/yr                         187    275
Biomass                TWh/yr                          12     12
Biomass/CCS            TWh/yr                           0      0
Other renewables       TWh/yr                           0      0
                       TWh/yr
Total (should sum to above)                           199    288

Carbon fuels
Biomass electricity     Ggge/yr                        1.0    1.0
Biogas electricity      Ggge/yr                        0.4    0.6
Biogas hydrogen         Ggge/yr                        0.0    0.0
Biogas used directly    Ggge/yr                        0.6    0.4
Biofuel used directly   Ggge/yr                        2.0    2.0
Fossil gaseous fuel     Ggge/yr                       41.3   42.9
Fossil liquid fuel      Ggge/yr                       41.6   27.9

NG used for elec        Ggge/yr                       18.4   27.1

Total biomass suply     mdt/yr                        50     50


Total gaseous fuel      Ggge/yr                       42.3   43.9
Total liquid fuel       Ggge/yr                       43.6   29.9


                       Ggge/yr
Total fuels (minus biomass)                           85.9   73.8

GHG comparisons
Main portraits
Net emissions           MtCO2e/yr



Alternative portraits
Net emissions           MtCO2e/yr
For PPT

Electricity breakdown
    0             0             0         Take 2         0            0              0              0




              BAU with                                                         Electrificatio
BAU with     low-carbon      BAU with Efficiency + Efficiency + Efficiency +     n + low-     Electrificatio
efficiency    electricity   low-carbon Electrificatio low-carbon low-carbon       carbon        n + low-
   only          only         fuel only      n         electricity  fuels       electricity carbon fuels

  0.0%         31.0%          0.0%         0.0%        31.0%        0.0%          31.0%           0.0%

 40.0%          5.0%          40.0%       40.0%         5.0%       40.0%           5.0%          40.0%
  3.9%          5.1%           5.4%        2.5%         7.5%        7.9%           3.5%           3.7%
  0.0%         28.2%           0.0%        0.0%        28.2%        0.0%          28.2%           0.0%
  0.0%         31.0%           0.0%        0.0%        31.0%        0.0%          31.0%           0.0%

  0.0%          1.6%          0.0%         0.0%        1.6%         0.0%          1.6%            0.0%

  322           475            467         503          327         322            699            688
  9.5           14.0           13.8        14.9         9.7         9.5            20.7           20.3

   1.0           2.0            2.0         1.0          2.0         2.0            2.0            2.0
  12.7          11.6           18.4        19.8          8.0        12.7           17.1           27.1
  23.2          27.6           34.2        35.7         19.6        24.3           39.7           49.5



  4.2%          3.2%          13.0%        3.3%        6.6%        23.0%          4.1%           12.5%
  9.3%          2.7%          17.2%       12.5%        5.6%        35.1%          4.0%           25.2%

   1.0           0.8            5.5         1.0          0.8         5.5            0.8            5.5
  22.9          34.7           36.8        29.7         18.4        18.4           33.1           38.4
  23.9          35.5           42.3        30.7         19.2        23.9           33.9           43.9

   2.0           1.2            7.5         2.0          1.2         7.5            1.2            7.5
  19.4          42.4           36.1        14.1         20.2        13.9           28.7           22.3
  21.4          43.6           43.6        16.1         21.4        21.4           29.9           29.9

   1.0           2.0           2.0          1.0         2.0          2.0            2.0            2.0

   3.0           2.0           13.0         3.0          2.0        13.0            2.0           13.0
  42.3          77.1           72.9        43.8         38.6        32.3           61.7           60.8
  45.3          79.1           85.9        46.8         40.6        45.3           63.8           73.8
 0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0
 0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0

 54.9     93.2     99.8     61.7     50.3     54.9     84.4     94.1

 51%      93%      88%      47%      47%      39%      74%      73%


 13       25       25       13       25       25       25       25
 13       11       69       13       11       69       11       69
 25       15       94       25       15       94       15       94
 50        50      188       50      50       188       50      188
 50       188      188      188      50       188      188      188


 50       50       125      50       50       125      50       125

  0        0       63        0        0       63        0       63

 50       50       188      50       50       188      50       188




 104      22       151      163      16       104      31       222
  71      13        95      111       9        60      19       141
  33       9        56       51       8        44      12        82

 106      228      209      66       104      89       159      148

 213      457      399      139      221      162      299      243

  0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0

 423      707      759      368      341      355      489      613

 117      117      117       8       117      117      117      117




27,579   30,283   48,827   35,444   14,788   27,579   23,386   50,693
23,899   26,242   42,311   30,714   12,815   23,899   20,265   43,928
21,430   43,637   43,637   16,062   21,430   21,430   29,856   29,856
45,329   69,879   85,948   46,776   34,245   45,329   50,121   73,784




 104      22       151      163      16       104      31       222
  71      13        95      111       9        60      19       141
 33      9     56     51      8     44     12     82
106    228    209     66    104     89    159    148
213    457    399    139    221    162    299    243
319    685    608    205    324    251    458    390
  0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
423    707    759    368    341    355    489    613
117    117    117      8    117    117    117    117
386    386    386    386    386    386    386    386
 77     77     77     77     77     77     77     77


  0    147      0      0    102      0    217      0
  0    147      0      0    102      0    217      0
129     24    187    201     16    129     35    275
 12     24     25     12     24     25     24     25
  0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
  0    134      0      0     92      0    197      0
141    476    212    214    336    154    690    300


 1.0    2.0    2.0    1.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0
 0.5    0.1    2.4    0.6    0.1    2.9    0.1    3.4
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
 0.5    0.8    3.1    0.4    0.7    2.6    0.7    2.1
 2.0    1.2    7.5    2.0    1.2    7.5    1.2    7.5
22.9   34.7   36.8   29.7   18.4   18.4   33.1   38.4
19.4   42.4   36.1   14.1   20.2   13.9   28.7   22.3

12.7   11.6   18.4   19.8   8.0    12.7   17.1   27.1

50     50     188    50     50     188    50     188


23.9   35.5   42.3   30.7   19.2   23.9   33.9   43.9
21.4   43.6   43.6   16.1   21.4   21.4   29.9   29.9


45.3   79.1   85.9   46.8   40.6   45.3   63.8   73.8
                  Take 3
                (Subtracted
                   from
     0            Median)          0            0            0        Median cases         0




Low-carbon                      Median                      Median
electricity +     Median         without       Median     without low-
low-carbon        without     electrificatio without low-    carbon    Median Portrait Median with
   fuels         efficiency         n        carbon fuel electricity       2050          ZELB

  31.0%           31.0%         31.0%        31.0%         0.0%           31.0%          31.0%

   5.0%            5.0%          5.0%         5.0%        40.0%            5.0%           0.0%
   5.3%            3.6%          7.7%         4.8%         5.0%            4.8%           4.8%
  28.2%           28.2%         28.2%        28.2%         0.0%           28.2%          28.2%
  31.0%           31.0%         31.0%        31.0%         0.0%           31.0%          36.0%

   1.6%            1.6%          1.6%         1.6%         0.0%           1.6%           3.2%

    475            699           327          512          503            522             529
    14.0           20.7          9.7          15.1         14.9           15.4            15.6

     2.0            2.0           2.0          2.0          2.0            2.0             2.0
    11.6           17.1           8.0         12.5         19.8           12.7            10.3
    27.7           39.8          19.7         29.6         36.7           30.2            28.0



  20.9%           27.1%         42.8%         6.6%        18.5%           47.0%          61.9%
  17.2%           25.2%         35.1%         7.6%        47.8%           48.5%          48.8%

     5.5            5.5           5.5          0.8          5.5            5.5             5.5
    30.0           28.4          13.7         21.9         24.2           16.4            13.7
    35.5           33.9          19.2         22.7         29.7           21.9            19.2

     7.5            7.5           7.5          1.2          7.5            7.5             7.5
    36.1           22.3          13.9         14.7          8.2            8.0             7.9
    43.6           29.9          21.4         15.9         15.7           15.5            15.4

    2.0             2.0           2.0          2.0          2.0            2.0            2.0

    13.0           13.0          13.0          2.0         13.0           13.0            13.0
    66.1           50.7          27.6         36.5         32.4           24.3            21.6
    79.1           63.8          40.6         38.6         45.4           37.4            34.6
 0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0
 0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0

 93.2     84.4     50.3     53.7     60.3     52.8     50.2

 80%      61%      33%      39%      34%      26%      23%


 25       25       25       25       25       25       25
 69       69       69       11       69       69       69
 94       94       94       15       94       94       94
 188      188      188       50      188      188      188
 188      188       50      188      188      188      188


 125      125      125      50       125      125      125

 63       63       63        0       63       63       63

 188      188      188      50       188      188      188




 21       27       14       23       163      19       10
 11       16        6       14        98       9        0
  9       12        8       10        65      10       10

 193      128      71       64       58       41       33

 399      243      162      145      92       91       90

  0        0        0        0        0        0        0

 613      398      247      233      312      151      133

 117       8        8        8        8        8        8




30,283   23,386   14,788   14,711   34,270   13,481   10,238
26,242   20,265   12,815   12,748   29,697   11,682    8,872
43,637   29,856   21,430   15,855   15,738   15,500   15,424
69,879   50,121   34,245   28,603   45,435   27,182   24,296




 21       27       14       23       163      19       10
 11       16        6       14        98       9        0
  9     12      8     10     65     10     10
193    128     71     64     58     41     33
399    243    162    145     92     91     90
592    370    233    209    149    132    123
  0      0      0      0      0      0      0
613    398    247    233    312    151    133
117      8      8      8      8      8      8
386    386    386    386    386    386    386
 77     77     77     77     77     77     77


147    217    102    159      0    162    190
147    217    102    159      0    162    164
 24     35     16     26    201     26      0
 25     25     25     24     25     25     25
  0      0      0      0      0      0      0
134    197     92    144      0    147    149
477    690    337    511    227    522    529


 2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0
 0.5    0.9    0.7    0.2    3.7    1.2    0.0
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
 5.0    4.6    4.8    0.7    1.8    4.3    5.5
 7.5    7.5    7.5    1.2    7.5    7.5    7.5
30.0   28.4   13.7   21.9   24.2   16.4   13.7
36.1   22.3   13.9   14.7    8.2    8.0    7.9

11.6   17.1   8.0    12.5   19.8   12.7   10.3

188    188    188    50     188    188    188


35.5   33.9   19.2   22.7   29.7   21.9   19.2
43.6   29.9   21.4   15.9   15.7   15.5   15.4


79.1   63.8   40.6   38.6   45.4   37.4   34.6
                        Electricity
                        generation
    0           0        options         0            0            0           0          0




Median with    100%     Nuclear with                            Coal/CCS
    NG        Capture       NG                   Nuclear with    with NG               Coal/CCS
 Balancing    Median     balancing     Nuclear     ZELB         balancing   Coal/CCS   with ZELB

  31.0%       31.0%        0.0%         0.0%        0.0%         57.0%       62.0%      67.0%

  10.0%        5.0%       10.0%         5.0%        0.0%         10.0%        5.0%       0.0%
   4.9%        4.8%        5.0%         4.9%        4.8%          5.0%        4.9%       4.8%
  28.1%       28.2%       28.0%        28.1%       28.2%         28.0%       28.1%      28.2%
  26.0%       31.0%       57.0%        62.0%       67.0%          0.0%        0.0%       0.0%

   0.0%        1.6%        0.0%         1.6%        3.2%          0.0%       1.6%        3.2%

   514         522         510          517         524           510         517        524
   15.2        15.4        15.1         15.3        15.5          15.1        15.3       15.5

    2.0         2.0         2.0          2.0         2.0           2.0         2.0        2.0
   15.1        12.7         5.0          2.5         0.0           5.0         2.5        0.0
   32.3        30.2        22.1         19.9        17.5          22.1        19.9       17.5



  38.1%       47.0%       41.1%        51.6%       70.0%         41.1%       51.6%      70.0%
  48.3%       48.5%       49.3%        49.5%       49.8%         49.3%       49.5%      49.8%

    5.5         5.5         5.5          5.5         5.5           5.5         5.5        5.5
   19.0        16.4         7.9          5.2         2.4           7.9         5.2        2.4
   24.4        21.9        13.4         10.6         7.8          13.4        10.6        7.8

    7.5         7.5         7.5          7.5         7.5           7.5         7.5        7.5
    8.1         8.0         7.7          7.7         7.6           7.7         7.7        7.6
   15.6        15.5        15.3         15.2        15.1          15.3        15.2       15.1

    2.0         2.0         2.0          2.0         2.0           2.0        2.0         2.0

   13.0        13.0        13.0         13.0        13.0          13.0        13.0       13.0
   27.0        24.3        15.6         12.8         9.9          15.6        12.8        9.9
   40.0        37.4        28.6         25.8        22.9          28.6        25.8       22.9
 0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0
 0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0

 55.2     52.8     43.7     41.1     38.4     43.7     41.1     38.4

 28%      26%      17%      14%      11%      17%      14%      11%


 25       25       25       25       25       25       25       25
 69       69       69       69       69       69       69       69
 94       94       94       94       94       94       94       94
 188      188      188      188      188      188      188      188
 188      188      188      188      188      188      188      188


 125      125      125      125      125      125      125      125

 63       63       63       63       63       63       63       63

 188      188      188      188      188      188      188      188




 30       13       24       13         4      47       38       32
 20        9        9       19         9       0       19        9
 10        4       15       -7        -5      47       19       24

 46       41       45       39       28       45       39       28

 91       91       90       89       89       90       89       89

  0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0

 168      146      158      141      121      181      167      150

  8        8        8        8        8        8        8        8




16,631   13,481   15,428   12,284    9,049   15,428   12,284    9,049
14,412   11,682   13,369   10,645    7,842   13,369   10,645    7,842
15,574   15,500   15,256   15,177   15,096   15,256   15,177   15,096
29,986   27,182   28,625   25,822   22,937   28,625   25,822   22,937




 30       13       24       13        4       47       38       32
 20        9        9       19        9        0       19        9
 10      4     15     -7     -5     47     19     24
 46     41     45     39     28     45     39     28
 91     91     90     89     89     90     89     89
138    132    135    128    117    135    128    117
  0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
168    146    158    141    121    181    167    150
  8      8      8      8      8      8      8      8
386    386    386    386    386    386    386    386
 77     77     77     77     77     77     77     77


134    162    291    321    351      0      0      0
159    162      0      0      0    291    321    351
 51     26     51     26      0     51     26      0
 25     25     25     25     25     25     25     25
  0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
144    147    143    145    148    143    145    148
514    522    510    517    524    510    517    524


 2.0    2.0   2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0
 1.9    1.2   2.1    1.3    0.0    2.1    1.3    0.0
 0.0    0.0   0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
 3.6    4.3   3.4    4.2    5.5    3.4    4.2    5.5
 7.5    7.5   7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5
19.0   16.4   7.9    5.2    2.4    7.9    5.2    2.4
 8.1    8.0   7.7    7.7    7.6    7.7    7.7    7.6

15.1   12.7   5.0    2.5    0.0    5.0    2.5    0.0

188    188    188    188    188    188    188    188


24.4   21.9   13.4   10.6    7.8   13.4   10.6    7.8
15.6   15.5   15.3   15.2   15.1   15.3   15.2   15.1


40.0   37.4   28.6   25.8   22.9   28.6   25.8   22.9
                                                                     Biomass
                                                                     GHG &
   0           0         0            0          0          0         Supply       0




   Nat.
Gas/CCS                  Nat.     Renewables                         Net Zero
 with NG      Nat.    Gas/CCS       with NG             Renewables     GHG      50% GHG
balancing   Gas/CCS   with ZELB    balancing Renewables with ZELB    Biomass     Biomass

 57.0%       62.0%     67.0%        0.0%       0.0%       0.0%        31.0%      31.0%

 10.0%        5.0%      0.0%        20.0%      10.0%       0.0%        5.0%       5.0%
  4.9%        4.8%      4.7%         4.9%       4.8%       4.7%        4.8%       4.8%
 28.1%       28.2%     28.3%        75.1%      85.2%      95.3%       28.2%      28.2%
  0.0%        0.0%      0.0%         0.0%       0.0%       0.0%       31.0%      31.0%

  0.0%       1.6%       3.1%        0.0%       3.2%       6.2%        1.6%        1.6%

  518        526        534          512        527        541         522        522
  15.3       15.6       15.8         15.1       15.6       16.0        15.4       15.4

   2.0        2.0        2.0          2.0        2.0        2.0         2.0        2.0
  23.7       23.1       22.5         10.1        5.2        0.0        12.7       12.7
  41.0       40.7       40.4         27.3       22.8       18.0        30.2       30.2



 35.9%       43.2%     54.5%        29.0%      40.5%      70.0%       47.0%      47.0%
 47.5%       47.5%     47.6%        48.8%      49.3%      49.8%       48.5%      48.5%

   5.5        5.5        5.5          5.5        5.5       5.5          5.5        5.5
  28.4       27.8       27.1         13.5        8.1       2.4         16.4       16.4
  33.9       33.2       32.6         18.9       13.6       7.8         21.9       21.9

   7.5        7.5        7.5          7.5        7.5        7.5         7.5        7.5
   8.3        8.3        8.3          7.9        7.7        7.6         8.0        8.0
  15.8       15.8       15.8         15.4       15.3       15.1        15.5       15.5

   2.0        2.0        2.0         2.0        2.0        2.0         2.0        2.0

  13.0       13.0       13.0         13.0       13.0       13.0        13.0       13.0
  36.7       36.1       35.4         21.3       15.8        9.9        24.3       24.3
  49.7       49.1       48.4         34.4       28.8       22.9        37.4       37.4
 0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0
 0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0

 65.0     64.6     64.2     49.5     44.4     38.9     52.8     52.8

 38%      38%      37%      23%      17%      11%      26%      26%


 25       25       25       25       25       25       25       25
 69       69       69       69       69       69       69       69
 94       94       94       94       94       94       94       94
 188      188      188      188      188      188      188      188
 188      188      188      188      188      188      188      188


 125      125      125      125      125      125      125      125

 63       63       63       63       63       63       63       63

 188      188      188      188      188      188      188      188




 36       26       17       49        24        4      14       27
  0       21       10        0        45       20       0        8
 36        5        7       49       -20      -16      14       19

 48       44       37       52       45       28       36       49

 92       92       92       90       90       89       80       107

  0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0

 176      161      146      191      159      121      130      184

  8        8        8        8        8        8        8        8




17,641   14,678   11,620   21,859   15,639    9,049   13,481   13,481
15,286   12,719   10,069   18,942   13,552    7,842   11,682   11,682
15,840   15,823   15,805   15,417   15,262   15,096   15,500   15,500
31,127   28,543   25,874   34,359   28,813   22,937   27,182   27,182




 36       26       17       49       24        4       14       27
  0       21       10        0       45       20        0        8
 36      5      7     49    -20    -16     14     19
 48     44     37     52     45     28     36     49
 92     92     92     90     90     89     80    107
140    136    129    142    135    117    116    157
  0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
176    161    146    191    159    121    130    184
  8      8      8      8      8      8      8      8
386    386    386    386    386    386    386    386
 77     77     77     77     77     77     77     77


  0      0      0      0      0      0    162    162
295    326    358      0      0      0    162    162
 52     26      0    102     53      0     26     26
 25     25     25     25     25     25     25     25
  0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
146    148    151    384    449    516    147    147
518    526    534    512    527    541    522    522


 2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0   2.0    2.0     2.0    2.0
 1.8    1.1    0.0    2.9   2.1    0.0     1.2    1.2
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   0.0    0.0     0.0    0.0
 3.7    4.4    5.5    2.6   3.4    5.5     4.3    4.3
 7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5   7.5    7.5     7.5    7.5
28.4   27.8   27.1   13.5   8.1    2.4    16.4   16.4
 8.3    8.3    8.3    7.9   7.7    7.6     8.0    8.0

23.7   23.1   22.5   10.1   5.2    0.0    12.7   12.7

188    188    188    188    188    188    188    188


33.9   33.2   32.6   18.9   13.6    7.8   21.9   21.9
15.8   15.8   15.8   15.4   15.3   15.1   15.5   15.5


49.7   49.1   48.4   34.4   28.8   22.9   37.4   37.4
   0         0          0         0         0         0         0         0




                                                                        Doubled
  Low       High     Net Zero  Net Zero 50% GHG + 50% GHG +   Doubled   biomass
Biomass   Biomass   GHG + Low GHG + High   Low       High     biomass    supply
 Supply    Supply    Biomass   Biomass   Biomass   Biomass     supply    (dupl)

31.0%     31.0%       31.0%     31.0%     31.0%     31.0%     31.0%     31.0%

 5.0%      5.0%        5.0%      5.0%      5.0%      5.0%      5.0%      5.0%
 1.3%     11.3%        1.3%     11.3%      1.3%     11.3%     11.3%     11.3%
31.7%     21.7%       31.7%     21.7%     31.7%     21.7%     21.7%     21.7%
31.0%     31.0%       31.0%     31.0%     31.0%     31.0%     31.0%     31.0%

 1.6%      1.6%       1.6%      1.6%      1.6%      1.6%       1.6%      1.6%

 526       516        526       516       526       516        516       516
 15.6      15.3       15.6      15.3      15.6      15.3       15.3      15.3

  0.5       4.7        0.5       4.7       0.5       4.7        4.7       4.7
 12.9      12.6       12.9      12.6      12.9      12.6       12.6      12.6
 28.9      32.5       28.9      32.5      28.9      32.5       32.5      32.5



11.5%     99.9%       11.5%     99.9%     11.5%     99.9%     99.9%     99.9%
12.7%     99.6%       12.7%     99.6%     12.7%     99.6%     99.6%     99.6%

  1.5      10.4        1.5      10.4       1.5      10.4       10.4      10.4
 21.5      10.1       21.5      10.1      21.5      10.1       10.1      10.1
 22.9      20.5       22.9      20.5      22.9      20.5       20.5      20.5

  2.0      15.0        2.0      15.0       2.0      15.0       15.0      15.0
 13.8       0.1       13.8       0.1      13.8       0.1        0.1       0.1
 15.8      15.1       15.8      15.1      15.8      15.1       15.1      15.1

  0.5       4.7        0.5       4.7       0.5       4.7        4.7       4.7

  3.5      25.4        3.5      25.4       3.5      25.4       25.4      25.4
 35.3      10.1       35.3      10.1      35.3      10.1       10.1      10.1
 38.7      35.5       38.7      35.5      38.7      35.5       35.5      35.5
 0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0
 0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0

 54.3     50.8     54.3     50.8     54.3     50.8     50.8     50.8

 37%      11%      37%      11%      37%      11%      11%      11%


  7        58       7        58       7        58       58       58
 18       130      18       130      18       130      130      130
 25       188      25       188      25       188      188      188
 50       376      50       376      50       376      376      376
 50       376      50       376      50       376      376      376


 50       125      50       125      50       125      125      125

  0       251       0       251       0       251      251      251

 50       376      50       376      50       376      376      376




 21       18       19        6       23       36       18       18
 11       14        3       13        0       14        7        3
  9        4       16       -7       23       22       11       15

 62       11       60        0       64       28       11       11

 138      23       135       1       143      57       23       23

  0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0

 220      52       215       6       229      121      52       52

  8        8        8        8        8        8        8        8




14,627   11,993   14,627   11,993   14,627   11,993   11,993   11,993
12,675   10,392   12,675   10,392   12,675   10,392   10,392   10,392
15,809   15,099   15,809   15,099   15,809   15,099   15,099   15,099
28,484   25,491   28,484   25,491   28,484   25,491   25,491   25,491




 21       18       19        6       23       36       18       18
 11       14        3       13        0       14        7        3
  9      4     16     -7     23     22     11     15
 62     11     60      0     64     28     11     11
138     23    135      1    143     57     23     23
200     34    196      1    206     85     34     34
  0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
220     52    215      6    229    121     52     52
  8      8      8      8      8      8      8      8
386    386    386    386    386    386    386    386
 77     77     77     77     77     77     77     77


163    160    163    160    163    160    160    160
163    160    163    160    163    160    160    160
 26     26     26     26     26     26     26     26
  7     58      7     58      7     58     58     58
  0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
167    112    167    112    167    112    112    112
526    516    526    516    526    516    516    516


 0.5    4.7    0.5    4.7    0.5    4.7    4.7    4.7
 0.3    2.5    0.3    2.5    0.3    2.5    2.5    2.5
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
 1.2    7.8    1.2    7.8    1.2    7.8    7.8    7.8
 2.0   15.0    2.0   15.0    2.0   15.0   15.0   15.0
21.5   10.1   21.5   10.1   21.5   10.1   10.1   10.1
13.8    0.1   13.8    0.1   13.8    0.1    0.1    0.1

12.9   12.6   12.9   12.6   12.9   12.6   12.6   12.6

50     376    50     376    50     376    376    376


22.9   20.5   22.9   20.5   22.9   20.5   20.5   20.5
15.8   15.1   15.8   15.1   15.8   15.1   15.1   15.1


38.7   35.5   38.7   35.5   38.7   35.5   35.5   35.5
                                    Realistic
                                    case w/
Biomass/CC                          behavior     H2 cases
    S           0          0         2050         2050              0          H2 + Behavior




Biomass/CC             Biomass/Co
   S (w/o   Biomass/Na   al/CCS     Behavior     Hydrogen      Hydrogen Nat.   H2 NG/CCS +
fossil/CCS) t. Gas/CCS (Williams)   Change      Electrolysis     Gas/CCS         Behavior

   0.0%      31.0%       0.0%        31.0%         0.0%           31.0%           31.0%

   5.0%       5.0%        5.0%        5.0%         5.0%            5.0%            5.0%
  21.2%      21.0%        0.0%        5.2%         4.9%            5.0%            4.8%
  42.8%      12.0%       22.6%       28.2%        28.1%           28.2%           28.2%
  31.0%      31.0%       31.0%       30.6%        62.0%           30.9%           31.0%

   1.6%       1.6%       1.6%        1.6%          0.9%            1.6%            1.6%

   520        524         510         484          822             472             429
   15.4       15.5        15.1        14.3         24.3            14.0            12.7

    7.5        7.5         0.0         2.0        #REF!             1.9             1.7
    2.6       12.8         2.5        11.8         4.1             11.5            10.5
   25.4       35.8        17.6        28.2        #REF!            27.4            24.8



   0.0%       0.0%       0.0%        52.3%        41.1%           62.2%           71.4%
  49.0%      48.0%      190.7%       54.0%        64.7%           63.7%           71.1%

    0.0        0.0        0.0          5.5        #REF!             5.6             5.9
   11.2       22.5        9.1         14.4        #REF!            12.6            10.7
   11.2       22.5        9.1         19.9        #REF!            18.3            16.6

    7.5        7.5        28.0         7.5          7.5             7.5             7.5
    7.8        8.2       -13.3         6.4          4.1             4.3             3.1
   15.4       15.7        14.7        13.9         11.6            11.8            10.6

   7.5         7.5        0.0         2.0         #REF!             1.9             1.7

    7.5        7.5        28.0        13.0        #REF!            13.2            13.4
   19.1       30.6        -4.2        20.8        #REF!            16.9            13.8
   26.6       38.2        23.8        33.8        #REF!            30.1            27.2
 0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      8.0      8.0      8.1
 0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      7.9      7.9      7.9

 41.9     53.7     38.9     48.2    #REF!     51.9     47.8

 20%      32%      -4%      22%      10%      17%      14%


 94       94        0       25       40       24       21
  0        0        0       69       54       71       73
 94       94       350      94       94       94       94
 188      188      350      188      188      188      188
 188      188      188      188      188      188      188


 125      125      125      125      125      125      125

 63       63       63       63       63       63       63

 188      188      188      188      188      188      188




 -54      -48      14       17       22       16       13
  3        15      15       14        8       16        7
 -57      -62       0        3       14        0        7

 68       68       68       35       31       23       17

 90       92       -98      75       52       53       41

  0        0        0        0       17       20       19

 105      112      -15      127      122      111      90

  8        8        8        8        8        8        8




12,943   14,140   10,485   12,107   12,045   10,457    9,479
11,216   12,253    9,086   10,492   10,437    9,062    8,214
15,355   15,678   14,692   13,920   11,616   11,807   10,581
26,571   27,931   23,778   24,412   22,053   20,869   18,795




 -54      -48      14       17       22       16       13
  3        15      15       14        8       16        7
-57    -62      0       3     14       0      7
 68     68     68      35     31      23     17
 90     92    -98      75     52      53     41
158    160    -30     110     83      75     58
  0      0      0       0     17      20     19
105    112    -15     127    122     111     90
  8      8      8       8      8       8      8
386    386    386     386    386     386    386
 77     77     77      77     77      77     77


161    163    158     148     510    146    133
  0    163      0     150       0    146    133
 26     26     25      24      41     24     21
  0      0      0      25      40     23     21
110    110      0       0       0      0      0
222     63    115     136     231    133    121
520    524    299     484     822    472    429


 7.5    7.5     0.0    2.0   #REF!    1.9    1.7
 0.0    0.0     0.0    1.2    1.7     1.4    1.5
 0.0    0.0     0.0    0.0   #REF!    0.4    0.7
 0.0    0.0     0.0    4.2   #REF!    3.7    3.7
 7.5    7.5    28.0    7.5    7.5     7.5    7.5
11.2   22.5     9.1   14.4   #REF!   12.6   10.7
 7.8    8.2   -13.3    6.4    4.1     4.3    3.1

2.6    12.8   2.5     11.8    4.1    11.5   10.5

188    188    188     188     188    188    188


11.2   22.5    9.1    19.9   #REF!   18.3   16.6
15.4   15.7   14.7    13.9    11.6   11.8   10.6


26.6   38.2   23.8    33.8   #REF!   30.1   27.2
Combinations       0              0             0              0             0




                                                           H2 NG/CCS +   H2 NG/CCS +
                              Hydrogen Nat.  H2 NG/CCS +      Behavior      Behavior
Hydrogen Nat.  Hydrogen Nat.    Gas/CCS +      Behavior   Change + ZELB Change + ZELB
 Gas/CCS +       Gas/CCS +   Bio/CCS + ZELB Change + ZELB   + Bio/CCS +   + Bio/CCS +
  Bio/CCS     Bio/CCS + ZELB    + HighBio     + Bio/CCS       HighBio        NZEB

   31.0%         31.0%          31.0%         31.0%          31.0%         31.0%

    5.0%          0.0%           0.0%          0.0%           0.0%          0.0%
   23.2%         22.9%          37.6%         25.1%          47.1%         25.1%
   12.0%         12.0%          12.0%         12.9%          12.0%         12.9%
   28.8%         34.1%          19.4%         31.0%           9.8%         31.0%

   1.6%           3.2%          3.2%           3.2%          3.2%           3.2%

    475           481            476           438            434           438
    14.0          14.2           14.1          12.9           12.8          12.9

     7.5           7.5           12.2           7.5           14.0           7.5
    11.6           9.4            9.3           8.5            8.5           8.5
    33.1          31.1           35.6          29.0           35.3          29.0



    0.0%          0.0%          99.6%          0.0%          97.9%          0.0%
   62.7%         63.1%          99.4%         70.2%          99.7%         70.2%

     0.0           0.0            6.3           0.0            5.7           0.0
    18.7          16.3            9.3          14.9            8.6          14.9
    18.7          16.3           15.6          14.9           14.3          14.9

     7.5           7.5           11.5           7.5           10.4           7.5
     4.5           4.4            0.1           3.2            0.0           3.2
    12.0          11.9           11.6          10.7           10.4          10.7

    7.5            7.5           12.2           7.5           14.0           7.5

     7.5           7.5           17.8           7.5           16.1           7.5
    23.1          20.7            9.4          18.1            8.6          18.1
    30.6          28.2           27.2          25.6           24.7          25.6
 8.0      8.0      8.0      8.1      8.1      8.1
 7.9      7.9      7.9      7.9      7.9      7.9

 52.5     50.3     49.2     46.4     45.5     46.4

 24%      22%      9%       19%      8%       19%


 94       94       153      94       175      94
  0        0        79       0        71       0
 94       94       144      94       130      94
 188      188      376      188      376      188
 188      188      376      188      376      188


 125      125      125      125      125      125

 63       63       251      63       251      63

 188      188      376      188      376      188




 -50      -63      -106     -64      -122     -83
  5        13        0       0         0       0
 -55      -77      -106     -64      -122     -83

 47       47        8       42        8       42

 54       53       17       42       15       31

 25       25       16       25       17       25

 76       62       -64      46       -82      16

  8        8        8        8        8        8




10,852    8,009    7,314    7,303    6,725    7,303
 9,404    6,940    6,338    6,329    5,827    6,329
11,987   11,919   11,590   10,706   10,432   10,706
21,391   18,859   17,927   17,035   16,259   17,035




 -50      -63      -106     -64      -122     -83
  5        13        0       0         0       0
-55    -77    -106   -64    -122   -83
 47     47       8    42       8    42
 54     53      17    42      15    31
101    100     25     84     23     73
 25     25      16    25      17    25
 76     62     -64    46     -82    16
  8      8       8     8       8     8
386    386    386    386    386    386
 77     77     77     77     77     77


137    164     92    136     43    136
147    149    148    136    134    136
 24      0      0      0      0      0
  0      0      0      0      0      0
110    110    179    110    205    110
 57     58     57     56     52     56
475    481    476    438    434    438


 7.5    7.5   12.2    7.5   14.0    7.5
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
 0.8    0.0    0.0    0.8    0.0    0.0
-0.8    0.0    6.3   -0.8    5.7    0.0
 7.5    7.5   11.5    7.5   10.4    7.5
18.7   16.3    9.3   14.9    8.6   14.9
 4.5    4.4    0.1    3.2    0.0    3.2

11.6   9.4    9.3    8.5    8.5    8.5

188    188    376    188    376    188


18.7   16.3   15.6   14.9   14.3   14.9
12.0   11.9   11.6   10.7   10.4   10.7


30.6   28.2   27.2   25.6   24.7   25.6
               100% RE single
      0          strategies        0               0             0               0




 H2 NG/CCS +
    Behavior
Change + ZELB Net Zero GHG    High biomass                    Behavior       Hydrogen
  + Bio/CCS + Biomass + 100% imports + 100%   Biomass/CCS    Change with   Electrolysis +
HighBio + NZEB     RE              RE         with 100% RE    100% RE        100% RE

    31.0%          0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%

     0.0%          10.0%         10.0%           10.0%         10.0%          10.0%
    47.1%           4.8%          9.9%           20.8%          5.2%           4.8%
    12.0%          85.2%         80.1%           69.2%         84.8%          85.2%
     9.8%           0.0%          0.0%            0.0%          0.0%           0.0%

    3.2%           3.2%           3.2%           3.2%           3.2%           1.8%

     434            527           520             529           488            832
     12.8           15.6          15.4            15.6          14.4           24.6

     14.0            2.0           4.1             7.5           2.0            3.2
      8.5            5.2           5.1             5.2           4.8            8.2
     35.3           22.8          24.6            28.4          21.3           36.0



    97.9%          40.5%         91.6%            0.0%         44.9%          28.9%
    99.7%          49.3%         99.7%           48.7%         54.9%          64.0%

      5.7            5.5          11.2             0.0           5.5            4.3
      8.6            8.1           1.0            14.1           6.7           10.5
     14.3           13.6          12.2            14.1          12.2           14.8

     10.4            7.5          14.8             7.5           7.5            7.5
      0.0            7.7           0.0             7.9           6.2            4.2
     10.4           15.3          14.8            15.4          13.7           11.7

     14.0           2.0            4.1            7.5            2.0            3.2

     16.1           13.0          26.0             7.5          13.0           11.8
      8.6           15.8           1.1            22.1          12.9           14.8
     24.7           28.8          27.0            29.6          25.9           26.6
 8.1      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      8.0
 7.9      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      7.9

 45.5     44.4     42.4     45.2     40.4     59.0

 8%       17%      1%       23%      14%      15%


 175      25        52      94       25       40
  71      69       139       0       69       54
 130      94       185      94       94       94
 376      188      376      188      188      188
 376      188      376      188      188      188


 125      125      125      125      125      125

 251      63       251      63       63       63

 376      188      376      188      188      188




 -159     18       16       -38      22       43
   0       0       18        8       30       18
 -159     18       -2       -46      -8       25

  1       41       16       68       38       36

  0       79       23       91       74       52

 15        0        0        0        0       27

 -143     137      55       120      134      157

  8        8        8        8        8        8




 6,725   15,639   14,051   16,312   14,107   17,105
 5,827   13,552   12,176   14,135   12,225   14,822
10,432   15,262   14,843   15,439   13,698   11,747
16,259   28,813   27,019   29,574   25,923   26,569




 -159     18       16       -38      22       43
   0       0       18        8       30       18
-159    18     -2    -46     -8     25
  1     41     16     68     38     36
  0     79     23     91     74     52
  1    119     39    159    112     88
 15      0      0      0      0     27
-143   137     55    120    134    157
  8      8      8      8      8      8
386    386    386    386    386    386
 77     77     77     77     77     77


 43      0      0      0      0      0
134      0      0      0      0      0
  0     53     52     53     49     83
  0     25     51      0     25     40
205      0      0    110      0      0
 52    449    417    366    414    708
434    527    520    529    488    832


14.0   2.0     4.1    7.5   2.0     3.2
 0.0   2.1     4.7    0.0   2.2     2.4
 1.1   0.0     1.1    0.0   0.0     0.0
 4.6   3.4     5.4    0.0   3.3     1.9
10.4   7.5    14.8    7.5   7.5     7.5
 8.6   8.1     1.0   14.1   6.7    10.5
 0.0   7.7     0.0    7.9   6.2     4.2

8.5    5.2    5.1    5.2    4.8    8.2

376    188    376    188    188    188


14.3   13.6   12.2   14.1   12.2   14.8
10.4   15.3   14.8   15.4   13.7   11.7


24.7   28.8   27.0   29.6   25.9   26.6
                   100% RE
      0          combinations       0             0             0              0



                                                                           100% RE +
                                                             100% RE +     Bio/CCS +
                                 100% RE       100% RE       Bio/CCS +     Behavior +
Hydrogen from     100% RE       +Bio/CCS +    +Bio/CCS +     Behavior +  NZEB + ZELB +
Nat. Gas/CCS +   +Bio/CCS +     Behavior +    Behavior +   NZEB + ZELB + H2 NG/CCS +
   100% RE        Behavior        NZEB       NZEB + ZELB    H2 NG/CCS       HighBio

    0.0%            0.0%          0.0%          0.0%           0.0%          0.0%

    10.0%           10.0%         10.0%          0.0%          0.0%           0.0%
     4.9%           22.4%         22.4%         21.8%         24.6%          48.0%
    85.1%           67.6%         67.6%         78.2%         75.4%          52.0%
     0.0%            0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%           0.0%

    3.2%            3.2%          3.2%          6.2%           6.2%          6.3%

     477             491           491          504            448           444
     14.1            14.5          14.5         14.9           13.2          13.1

      1.9             7.5           7.5          7.5            7.5          14.6
      4.7             4.8           4.8          0.0            0.0           0.0
     20.7            26.9          26.9         22.4           20.8          27.7



    51.1%            0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          99.8%
    64.9%           54.2%         54.2%         54.8%         72.0%          99.8%

      5.6             0.0           0.0          0.0            0.0           5.4
      5.4            12.8          12.8          7.5            5.8           0.0
     11.0            12.8          12.8          7.5            5.8           5.4

      7.5             7.5           7.5          7.5            7.5          10.2
      4.1             6.4           6.4          6.2            2.9           0.0
     11.6            13.9          13.9         13.7           10.4          10.2

     1.9             7.5           7.5           7.5            7.5          14.6

     13.2             7.5           7.5          7.5            7.5          15.5
      9.5            19.2          19.2         13.7            8.8           0.0
     22.6            26.7          26.7         21.2           16.3          15.6
 8.0      0.0      8.0     #VALUE!    8.1      8.1
 7.9      0.0      7.9     #VALUE!    7.9      7.9

 44.6     41.2     49.1    #VALUE!    37.4     36.6

 9%       20%      20%      15%       8%       -1%


 24       94       94        94       94       182
 71        0        0         0        0        67
 94       94       94        94       94       127
 188      188      188       188      188      376
 188      188      188       188      188      376


 125      125      125       125      125      125

 63       63       63        63       63       251

 188      188      188       188      188      376




  20      -41      -60       -88      -88      -170
  36       16       28        28       0         0
 -17      -57      -88      -116      -88      -170

 27       61       61        61       42        0

 51       75       64        63       29        0

 21        0        0         0       25       14

 119      96       65        36        9       -156

  8        8        8         8        8        8




12,740   14,781   14,781    8,639     6,737    6,198
11,040   12,808   12,808    7,486     5,838    5,371
11,593   13,876   13,876   13,722    10,438   10,183
22,633   26,684   26,684   21,208    16,276   15,554




 20       -41      -60       -88      -88      -170
 36        16       28        28       0         0
-17    -57    -88    -116   -88    -170
 27     61     61     61     42      0
 51     75     64     63     29      0
 79    136    125    124     72      0
 21      0      0      0     25     14
119     96     65     36      9    -156
  8      8      8      8      8      8
386    386    386    386    386    386
 77     77     77     77     77     77


  0      0      0     0      0      0
  0      0      0     0      0      0
 48     49     49     0      0      0
 23      0      0     0      0      0
  0    110    110    110    110    213
405    332    332    394    338    231
477    491    491    504    448    444


1.9     7.5    7.5   7.5    7.5    14.6
2.4     0.0    0.0   0.0    0.0     0.0
0.0     0.3    0.6   0.0    0.0     1.1
3.2    -0.3   -0.6   0.0    0.0     4.3
7.5     7.5    7.5   7.5    7.5    10.2
5.4    12.8   12.8   7.5    5.8     0.0
4.1     6.4    6.4   6.2    2.9     0.0

4.7    4.8    4.8    0.0    0.0    0.0

188    188    188    188    188    376


11.0   12.8   12.8    7.5    5.8    5.4
11.6   13.9   13.9   13.7   10.4   10.2


22.6   26.7   26.7   21.2   16.3   15.6
                                                                            Other
                                                                          combination
   Others           0             0              0             0              s



                                                           100% RE + H2
                                100% RE +    100% RE + H2    NG/CCS +
 100% RE +       100% RE +    Hydrogen Nat.   NG/CCS +        Behavior
Hydrogen Nat.  Hydrogen Nat.    Gas/CCS +       Behavior  Change + ZELB
 Gas/CCS +       Gas/CCS +   Bio/CCS + ZELB Change + ZELB   + Bio/CCS +    ZELB +
  Bio/CCS     Bio/CCS + ZELB     + HighBio     + Bio/CCS      HighBio      H2/CCS

   0.0%           0.0%           0.0%          0.0%           0.0%          31.0%

   10.0%          0.0%           0.0%           0.0%          0.0%           0.0%
   23.0%         22.4%          38.9%          24.6%         48.0%           4.9%
   67.0%         77.6%          61.1%          75.4%         52.0%          28.2%
    0.0%          0.0%           0.0%           0.0%          0.0%          36.0%

   3.2%           6.2%           6.3%          6.2%           6.3%           3.2%

    479           492            488            448           444            479
    14.2          14.6           14.4           13.2          13.1           14.2

     7.5           7.5           13.0            7.5          14.6            1.9
     4.7           0.0            0.0            0.0           0.0            9.3
    26.4          22.1           27.4           20.8          27.7           25.4



    0.0%          0.0%          99.8%           0.0%         99.8%          85.3%
   63.9%         64.7%          99.7%          72.0%         99.8%          64.1%

     0.0           0.0           5.8            0.0            5.4            5.6
    11.4           6.4           0.0            5.8            0.0           10.3
    11.4           6.4           5.8            5.8            5.4           15.9

     7.5           7.5           11.3            7.5          10.2            7.5
     4.3           4.1            0.0            2.9           0.0            4.2
    11.8          11.6           11.3           10.4          10.2           11.7

    7.5            7.5           13.0           7.5           14.6            1.9

     7.5           7.5           17.1            7.5          15.5           13.2
    15.6          10.5            0.1            8.8           0.0           14.5
    23.2          18.0           17.2           16.3          15.6           27.7
 8.0      8.0      8.0      8.1      8.1      8.0
 7.9      7.9      7.9      7.9      7.9      7.9

 45.2     40.4     39.4     37.4     36.6     49.7

 16%      10%      -1%      8%       -1%      15%


 94       94       162      94       182      24
  0        0        73       0        67      71
 94       94       141      94       127      94
 188      188      376      188      376      188
 188      188      376      188      376      188


 125      125      125      125      125      125

 63       63       251      63       251      63

 188      188      376      188      376      188




 -41      -68      -118     -68      -133      9
  0        27        0       0         0       0
 -41      -96      -118     -68      -133      9

 47       47        8       42        7       14

 52       52       17       40       15       52

 25       25       16       25       17       18

 84       55       -77      39       -93      93

  8        8        8        8        8        8




13,150    7,387    6,741    6,737    6,198    7,629
11,395    6,401    5,841    5,838    5,371    6,611
11,773   11,624   11,318   10,438   10,183   11,739
23,169   18,026   17,160   16,276   15,554   18,349




 -41      -68      -118     -68      -133      9
  0        27        0       0         0       0
-41    -96    -118   -68    -133     9
 47     47       8    42       7    14
 52     52      17    40      15    52
100     99     25     82     23     66
 25     25      16    25      17    18
 84     55     -77    39     -93    93
  8      8       8     8       8     8
386    386    386    386    386    386
 77     77     77     77     77     77


  0     0      0      0      0     172
  0     0      0      0      0     148
 48     0      0      0      0       0
  0     0      0      0      0      23
110    110    190    110    213      0
321    382    298    338    231    135
479    492    488    448    444    479


 7.5    7.5   13.0   7.5    14.6    1.9
 0.0    0.0    0.0   0.0     0.0    0.0
 0.3    0.6    0.0   0.0     1.1    0.9
-0.3   -0.6    5.8   0.0     4.3    4.7
 7.5    7.5   11.3   7.5    10.2    7.5
11.4    6.4    0.0   5.8     0.0   10.3
 4.3    4.1    0.0   2.9     0.0    4.2

4.7    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    9.3

188    188    376    188    376    188


11.4    6.4    5.8    5.8    5.4   15.9
11.8   11.6   11.3   10.4   10.2   11.7


23.2   18.0   17.2   16.3   15.6   27.7
    0           0               0            0             0            Comb of 3




ZELB + Net                 H2/CCS + Net   H2/CCS +   Net Zero Bio +   ZELB + H2/CCS
 Zero Bio ZELB + Bio/CCS     Zero Bio     Bio/CCS      Bio/CCS         + Net Zero Bio

  31.0%       31.0%           31.0%        31.0%        31.0%             31.0%

   0.0%        0.0%            5.0%         5.0%         5.0%              0.0%
   4.8%       20.7%            5.0%        23.2%        21.0%              4.9%
  28.2%       17.3%           28.2%         9.8%        12.0%             28.2%
  36.0%       31.0%           30.9%        31.0%        31.0%             36.0%

  3.2%         3.2%           1.6%         1.6%          1.6%              3.2%

  529          531             472          475          524               479
  15.6         15.7            14.0         14.0         15.5              14.2

   2.0          7.5             1.9          7.5          7.5               1.9
  10.3         10.4            11.5         11.6         12.8               9.3
  28.0         33.6            27.4         33.1         35.8              25.4



  61.9%        0.0%           62.2%         0.0%         0.0%             85.3%
  48.8%       48.2%           63.7%        62.7%        48.0%             64.1%

   5.5          0.0             5.6          0.0          0.0               5.6
  13.7         19.8            12.6         18.7         22.5              10.3
  19.2         19.8            18.3         18.7         22.5              15.9

   7.5          7.5             7.5          7.5          7.5               7.5
   7.9          8.1             4.3          4.5          8.2               4.2
  15.4         15.6            11.8         12.0         15.7              11.7

   2.0          7.5            1.9          7.5           7.5               1.9

  13.0          7.5            13.2          7.5          7.5              13.2
  21.6         27.9            16.9         23.1         30.6              14.5
  34.6         35.4            30.1         30.6         38.2              27.7
 0.0      0.0      8.0      8.0      0.0      8.0
 0.0      0.0      7.9      7.9      0.0      7.9

 50.2     51.1     51.9     52.5     53.7     49.7

 23%      29%      17%      24%      32%      15%


 25       94       24       94       94       24
 69        0       71        0        0       71
 94       94       94       94       94       94
 188      188      188      188      188      188
 188      188      188      188      188      188


 125      125      125      125      125      125

 63       63       63       63       63       63

 188      188      188      188      188      188




  6       -63      10       -50      -67        5
  0        0        0        5        13       15
  6       -63      10       -55      -81      -10

 26       68       18       47       68        7

 79       91       42       54       81       41

  0        0       18       25        0       16

 111      97       88       76       82       70

  8        8        8        8        8        8




10,238   10,882   10,457   10,852   14,140    7,629
 8,872    9,430    9,062    9,404   12,253    6,611
15,424   15,602   11,807   11,987   15,678   11,739
24,296   25,032   20,869   21,391   27,931   18,349




  6       -63      10       -50      -67       5
  0        0        0        5        13      15
  6    -63     10    -55    -81    -10
 26     68     18     47     68      7
 79     91     42     54     81     41
105    159     60    101    149     48
  0      0     18     25      0     16
111     97     88     76     82     70
  8      8      8      8      8      8
386    386    386    386    386    386
 77     77     77     77     77     77


190    165    146    147    163    172
164    165    146    147    163    148
  0      0     24     24     26      0
 25      0     23      0      0     23
  0    110      0    110    110      0
149     92    133     47     63    135
529    531    472    475    524    479


 2.0    7.5    1.9    7.5    7.5    1.9
 0.0    0.0    1.4    0.0    0.0    0.0
 0.0    0.4    0.7    0.9    0.0    0.0
 5.5   -0.4    3.5   -0.9    0.0    5.6
 7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5
13.7   19.8   12.6   18.7   22.5   10.3
 7.9    8.1    4.3    4.5    8.2    4.2

10.3   10.4   11.5   11.6   12.8   9.3

188    188    188    188    188    188


19.2   19.8   18.3   18.7   22.5   15.9
15.4   15.6   11.8   12.0   15.7   11.7


34.6   35.4   30.1   30.6   38.2   27.7
      0              0               0              All 4             0




                                H2/CCS + Net   ZELB + H2/CCS
ZELB + H2/CCS ZELB + Net Zero    Zero Bio +    +Net Zero Bio +   All 4 + 100%
  + Bio/CCS    Bio + Bio/CCS      Bio/CCS         Bio/CCS             CCS

    31.0%          31.0%           31.0%           31.0%           31.0%

     0.0%           0.0%            5.0%            0.0%            0.0%
    22.9%          20.7%           23.2%           22.9%           22.9%
    15.1%          17.3%            9.8%           15.1%           15.1%
    31.0%          31.0%           31.0%           31.0%           31.0%

    3.2%           3.2%            1.6%             3.2%            3.2%

     481            531             475             481             481
     14.2           15.7            14.0            14.2            14.2

      7.5            7.5             7.5             7.5             7.5
      9.4           10.4            11.6             9.4             9.4
     31.1           33.6            33.1            31.1            31.1



     0.0%           0.0%            0.0%            0.0%            0.0%
    63.1%          48.2%           62.7%           63.1%           63.1%

      0.0            0.0             0.0             0.0             0.0
     16.3           19.8            18.7            16.3            16.3
     16.3           19.8            18.7            16.3            16.3

      7.5            7.5             7.5             7.5             7.5
      4.4            8.1             4.5             4.4             4.4
     11.9           15.6            12.0            11.9            11.9

     7.5            7.5             7.5              7.5             7.5

      7.5            7.5             7.5             7.5             7.5
     20.7           27.9            23.1            20.7            20.7
     28.2           35.4            30.6            28.2            28.2
 8.0      0.0      8.0      8.0      8.0
 7.9      0.0      7.9      7.9      7.9

 50.3     51.1     52.5     50.3     50.3

 22%      29%      24%      22%      22%


 94       94       94       94       94
  0        0        0        0        0
 94       94       94       94       94
 188      188      188      188      188
 188      188      188      188      188


 125      125      125      125      125

 63       63       63       63       63

 188      188      188      188      188




 -63      -82      -69      -83      -88
  0        0        0        13       0
 -63      -82      -69      -96      -88

 47       68       47       47       47

 53       80       43       43       43

 25        0       25       25       25

 62       66       46       32       27

  8        8        8        8        8




 8,009   10,882   10,852    8,009    8,009
 6,940    9,430    9,404    6,940    6,940
11,919   15,602   11,987   11,919   11,919
18,859   25,032   21,391   18,859   18,859




 -63      -82      -69      -83      -88
  0        0        0        13       0
-63    -82    -69    -96    -88
 47     68     47     47     47
 53     80     43     43     43
100    148     90     90     90
 25      0     25     25     25
 62     66     46     32     27
  8      8      8      8      8
386    386    386    386    386
 77     77     77     77     77


149    165    147    149    149
149    165    147    149    149
  0      0     24      0      0
  0      0      0      0      0
110    110    110    110    110
 73     92     47     73     73
481    531    475    481    481


 7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5
 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
 0.7    0.0    0.0    0.9    0.0
-0.7    0.0    0.0   -0.9    0.0
 7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5
16.3   19.8   18.7   16.3   16.3
 4.4    8.1    4.5    4.4    4.4

9.4    10.4   11.6   9.4    9.4

188    188    188    188    188


16.3   19.8   18.7   16.3   16.3
11.9   15.6   12.0   11.9   11.9


28.2   35.4   30.6   28.2   28.2
Historical & BAU                                        Getting to 60%
                                                        Histo-
Historical                BAU
                                                        rical


        1990       2005         2020             2050         1990           2005




                                       Business As
    1990       2005         2020       Usual 2050         1990.00        2005.00
                                                               0.0%           0.0%
                                          0.0%             0.0%           0.0%

                                         40.0%             0.0%           0.0%
                                          2.7%             0.0%           0.0%
                                          0.0%             0.0%           0.0%
                                          0.0%             0.0%           0.0%
                                                           0.0%           0.0%
                                          0.0%             0.0%           0.0%
                                                           0.0%           0.0%
                                          467                0              0
                                          13.8              0.0            0.0
                                                             0              0
                                                            0.0            0.0
                                                            0.0            0.0
                                                             0              0
                                                             0              0
                                                                  0              0
                                                                  0              0
                                          2.4%             0.0%           0.0%
                                          4.6%             0.0%           0.0%
                                                           0.0%           0.0%
                                           1.0              0.0            0.0
                                          41.3              0.0            0.0
                                          42.3              0.0            0.0
                                                           0.0%           0.0%
                                           2.0              0.0            0.0
                                          41.6              0.0            0.0
                                          43.6              0.0            0.0
                                                           0.0%           0.0%
                                           1.0              0.0            0.0
                                                           0.0%           0.0%
                                           3.0              0.0            0.0
                                          82.9              0.0            0.0
                                          85.9              0.0            0.0
                                                           0.0%           0.0%
                   0.0     0.0       0.0
                   0.0     0.0       0.0
                           0.0       0.0
                   99.8    0.0       0.0
                           0.0       0.0
                  100%     0%        0%
                                 0         0
                           0         0
                   13      0         0
                   13      0         0
                   25      0         0
                   50      0         0
                           0         0
                           0         0
                                 0         0
                   50      0         0
                                 0         0
                    0      0         0
                                 0         0
                   50      0         0
                                 0         0
                           0         0
                                 0         0
                   151     91        88


                             0         0
                   230       0         0
                             0         0
                   450       0         0
                             0         0
                    0        0         0
                             0         0
386   414   415    830     386       414
                             0         0
40    58    92     117      40        58
                                 0         0
                                 0         0
                                 0         0
                           0         0
                  48,827   0         0
                  42,311   0         0
                  43,637   0         0
                  85,948   0         0
                                 0         0
                                 0         0
                                 0         0
                                 0         0
                                 0         0
91    88    110    151     91        88
62     0     0     104     62         0
 28    88   110    47     28          88
  0     0     0   230      0           0
  0     0     0   450      0           0
296   327   305   679    296         327
  0     0     0     0      0           0
386   414   415   830    386         414
 40    58    92   117     40          58
427   427   427   427    386         386         386
 85    85    85    85     77          77          77
                                0           0
                                0           0
                    0     0           0
                    0     0           0
                  187     0           0
                   12     0           0
                    0     0           0
                    0     0           0
                  199     0           0
                                0           0
                                0           0
                   1.0   0.0         0.0
                   0.4   0.0         0.0
                   0.0   0.0         0.0
                   0.6   0.0         0.0
                   2.0   0.0         0.0
                  41.3   0.0         0.0
                  41.6   0.0         0.0
                         0.0         0.0
                  18.4   0.0         0.0
                         0.0         0.0
                  50.0   0.0         0.0
                                0           0
                         0.0         0.0
                  42.3   0.0         0.0
                  43.6   0.0         0.0
                               0.0         0.0
                                 0           0
                  85.9   0.0         0.0
BAU                Any 1


            2050   LCF             LCE           ELE              EFF


                   Low-carbon      Low-carbon
BAU                                              Electrification Efficiency
                   Fuels           Electricity



                                   BAU with low-
                   BAU with low-     carbon       BAU with         BAU with
Business As         carbon fuel     electricity electrification    efficiency
Usual 2050             only            only          only             only

   0.0%               0.0%            31.0%          0.0%            0.0%

  40.0%               40.0%            5.0%          40.0%          40.0%
   2.7%                5.4%            5.1%           1.8%           3.9%
   0.0%                0.0%           28.2%           0.0%           0.0%
   0.0%                0.0%           31.0%           0.0%           0.0%

   0.0%               0.0%             1.6%          0.0%            0.0%

   467                   467             475           688              322
   13.8                  13.8            14.0          20.3             9.5




   2.4%               13.0%            3.2%          2.3%            4.2%
   4.6%               17.2%            2.7%          6.7%            9.3%

    1.0                   5.5             0.8           1.0              1.0
   41.3                  36.8            34.7          42.9             22.9
   42.3                  42.3            35.5          43.9             23.9

    2.0                   7.5             1.2           2.0              2.0
   41.6                  36.1            42.4          27.9             19.4
   43.6                  43.6            43.6          29.9             21.4

      1.0                2.0             2.0           1.0              1.0

    3.0                  13.0             2.0           3.0              3.0
   82.9                  72.9            77.1          70.8             42.3
   85.9                  85.9            79.1          73.8             45.3
 0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0
 0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0

 99.8     99.8     93.2     94.1     54.9

100%      88%      93%      85%      51%


 13        25      25       13       13
 13        69      11       13       13
 25        94      15       25       25
 50       188      50       50       50




 50       125      50       50       50

  0       63        0        0        0

 50       188      50       50       50




 151      151      22       222      104




 230      209      228      162      106

 450      399      457      291      213

  0        0        0        0        0

 830      759      707      676      423

 117      117      117      117      117




48,827   48,827   30,283   50,693   27,579
42,311   42,311   26,242   43,928   23,899
43,637   43,637   43,637   29,856   21,430
85,948   85,948   69,879   73,784   45,329




 151      151      22       222      104
 104       95      13       154       71
 47           56       9     69     33
230          209     228    162    106
450          399     457    291    213
679          608     685    453    319
  0            0       0      0      0
830          759     707    676    423
117          117     117    117    117
386    386   386     386    386    386    386
 77     77    77      77     77     77     77


  0            0     147      0      0
  0            0     147      0      0
187          187      24    275    129
 12           25      24     12     12
  0            0       0      0      0
  0            0     134      0      0
199          212     476    288    141


 1.0          2.0     2.0    1.0    1.0
 0.4          2.4     0.1    0.6    0.5
 0.0          0.0     0.0    0.0    0.0
 0.6          3.1     0.8    0.4    0.5
 2.0          7.5     1.2    2.0    2.0
41.3         36.8    34.7   42.9   22.9
41.6         36.1    42.4   27.9   19.4

18.4         18.4    11.6   27.1   12.7

50.0         188.0   50.0   50.0   50.0


42.3         42.3    35.5   43.9   23.9
43.6         43.6    43.6   29.9   21.4


85.9         85.9    79.1   73.8   45.3
Any 2                                                                                Any 3


                                                                                     ELE+LCE+L
LCE+LCF      ELE+LCF       ELE+LCE       EFF+ELE       EFF+LCF       EFF+LCE
                                                                                     CF




Low-carbon                   Electrificatio
electricity + Electrificatio   n + low-     Efficiency + Efficiency + Efficiency +     Median
low-carbon      n + low-        carbon      Electrificatio low-carbon low-carbon       without
   fuels      carbon fuels electricity            n           fuels    electricity    efficiency

  31.0%          0.0%         31.0%          0.0%          0.0%         31.0%          31.0%

   5.0%         40.0%          5.0%         40.0%         40.0%          5.0%           5.0%
   5.3%          3.7%          3.5%          2.5%          7.9%          7.5%           3.6%
  28.2%          0.0%         28.2%          0.0%          0.0%         28.2%          28.2%
  31.0%          0.0%         31.0%          0.0%          0.0%         31.0%          31.0%

   1.6%          0.0%          1.6%          0.0%          0.0%          1.6%           1.6%

   475           688           699           503            322           327           699
   14.0          20.3          20.7          14.9           9.5           9.7           20.7

    2.0           2.0           2.0           1.0           2.0           2.0
   11.6          27.1          17.1          19.8          12.7           8.0
    28            49            40            36            24            20



  20.9%         12.5%          4.1%          3.3%         23.0%          6.6%          27.1%
  17.2%         25.2%          4.0%         12.5%         35.1%          5.6%          25.2%

    5.5           5.5           0.8           1.0           5.5           0.8            5.5
   30.0          38.4          33.1          29.7          18.4          18.4           28.4
   35.5          43.9          33.9          30.7          23.9          19.2           33.9

    7.5           7.5           1.2           2.0           7.5           1.2            7.5
   36.1          22.3          28.7          14.1          13.9          20.2           22.3
   43.6          29.9          29.9          16.1          21.4          21.4           29.9

    2.0           2.0           2.0           1.0           2.0           2.0            2.0

   13.0          13.0           2.0           3.0          13.0           2.0           13.0
   66.1          60.8          61.7          43.8          32.3          38.6           50.7
   79.1          73.8          63.8          46.8          45.3          40.6           63.8
 0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0
 0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0

 93.2     94.1     84.4     61.7     54.9     50.3     84.4

 80%      73%      74%      47%      39%      47%      61%


  25       25       25       13       25      25        25
  69       69       11       13       69      11        69
  94       94       15       25       94      15        94
 188      188       50       50      188      50       188
 188      188      188      188      188      50


 125      125      50       50       125      50       125

 63       63        0        0       63        0       63

 188      188      50       50       188      50       188




 21       222      31       163      104      16       27.4




 193      148      159      66       89       104      128

 399      243      299      139      162      221      243

  0        0        0        0        0        0        0

 613      613      489      368      355      341      398

 117      117      117       8       117      117       8




30,283   50,693   23,386   35,444   27,579   14,788   23,386
26,242   43,928   20,265   30,714   23,899   12,815   20,265
43,637   29,856   29,856   16,062   21,430   21,430   29,856
69,879   73,784   50,121   46,776   45,329   34,245   50,121




 21       222      31       163      104      16       27
 11       141      19       111       60       9       16
  9      82      12     51     44       8           12
193     148     159     66     89     104          128
399     243     299    139    162     221          243
592     390     458    205    251     324          370
  0       0       0      0      0       0            0
613     613     489    368    355     341          398
117     117     117      8    117     117            8
386     386     386    386    386     386    386   386
 77      77      77     77     77      77     77    77


147       0     217      0      0     102          217
147       0     217      0      0     102          217
 24     275      35    201    129      16           35
 25      25      24     12     25      24           25
  0       0       0      0      0       0            0
134       0     197      0      0      92          197
477     300     690    214    154     336          690


 2.0     2.0     2.0    1.0    2.0     2.0          2.0
 0.5     3.4     0.1    0.6    2.9     0.1          0.9
 0.0     0.0     0.0    0.0    0.0     0.0          0.0
 5.0     2.1     0.7    0.4    2.6     0.7          4.6
 7.5     7.5     1.2    2.0    7.5     1.2          7.5
30.0    38.4    33.1   29.7   18.4    18.4         28.4
36.1    22.3    28.7   14.1   13.9    20.2         22.3

11.6    27.1    17.1   19.8   12.7    8.0          17.1

188.0   188.0   50.0   50.0   188.0   50.0         188.0


35.5    43.9    33.9   30.7   23.9    19.2         33.9
43.6    29.9    29.9   16.1   21.4    21.4         29.9


79.1    73.8    63.8   46.8   45.3    40.6         63.8
                                                            Any 2 (again -- for plot)
                                            All 4           Any 2


EFF+ELE+L EFF+LCE+L EFF+ELE+L               EFF+ELE+L
                                                            BAU
CF        CF        CE                      CE+LCF




  Median
without low-    Median         Median
   carbon       without      without low-     Median        Business As
 electricity electrification carbon fuel    Portrait 2050   Usual 2050

   0.0%          31.0%         31.0%           31.0%           0.0%

  40.0%           5.0%          5.0%            5.0%           40.0%
   5.0%           7.7%          4.8%            4.8%            2.7%
   0.0%          28.2%         28.2%           28.2%            0.0%
   0.0%          31.0%         31.0%           31.0%            0.0%

   0.0%          1.6%           1.6%            1.6%           0.0%

   503            327           512             522             467
   14.9           9.7           15.1            15.4            13.8




  18.5%          42.8%          6.6%           47.0%           2.4%
  47.8%          35.1%          7.6%           48.5%           4.6%
                                                               0.0%
    5.5            5.5           0.8             5.5            1.0
   24.2           13.7          21.9            16.4           41.3
   29.7           19.2          22.7            21.9           42.3
                                                               0.0%
    7.5            7.5           1.2             7.5            2.0
    8.2           13.9          14.7             8.0           41.6
   15.7           21.4          15.9            15.5           43.6
                                                               0.0%
    2.0           2.0            2.0                2.0         1.0
                                                               0.0%
   13.0           13.0           2.0            13.0            3.0
   32.4           27.6          36.5            24.3           82.9
   45.4           40.6          38.6            37.4           85.9
                                                               0.0%
 0.0      0.0      0.0        0.0         0.0
 0.0      0.0      0.0        0.0         0.0
                                          0.0
 60.3     50.3     53.7      52.8        99.8
                                          0.0
 34%      33%      39%       26%        100%
                                                 0
                                          0
  25       25      25         25         13
  69       69      11         69         13
  94       94      15         94         25
 188      188      50        188         50
                                         50
                                          0
                                                 0
 125      125      50        125         50
                                                 0
 63       63        0         63          0
                                                 0
 188      188      50        188         50
                                                 0
                                          0
                                                 0
 163      13.8     23        19.1        151


                                          0
 58       71       64         41         230
                                          0
 92       162      145        91         450
                                          0
  0        0        0         0           0
                                          0
 312      247      233       151         830
                                          0
  8        8        8          8         117
                           2.86006993            0
                                                 0
                                                 0
                                          0
34,270   14,788   14,711    13,481      48,827
29,697   12,815   12,748    11,682      42,311
15,738   21,430   15,855    15,500      43,637
45,435   34,245   28,603    27,182      85,948
                                                 0
                                                 0
                                                 0
                                                 0
                                                 0
 163      14       23         19         151
  98       6       14          9         104
 65       8      10           10      47
 58      71      64           41     230
 92     162     145           91     450
149     233     209          132     679
  0       0       0            0       0
312     247     233          151     830
  8       8       8            8     117
386     386     386    386   386     386
 77      77      77     77    77      77
                                             0
                                             0
  0     102     159          162       0
  0     102     159          162       0
201      16      26           26     187
 25      25      24           25      12
  0       0       0            0       0
  0      92     144          147       0
227     337     511          522     199
                                             0
                                             0
 2.0     2.0     2.0          2.0     1.0
 3.7     0.7     0.2          1.2     0.4
 0.0     0.0     0.0          0.0     0.0
 1.8     4.8     0.7          4.3     0.6
 7.5     7.5     1.2          7.5     2.0
24.2    13.7    21.9         16.4    41.3
 8.2    13.9    14.7          8.0    41.6
                                      0.0
19.8     8.0    12.5         12.7    18.4
                                      0.0
188.0   188.0   50.0         188.0   50.0
                                             0
                                      0.0
29.7    19.2    22.7         21.9    42.3
15.7    21.4    15.9         15.5    43.6
                                            0.0
                                              0
45.4    40.6    38.6         37.4    85.9
Any 2 (again -- for plot)




                            LCE+LCF      ELE+LCF       ELE+LCE       EFF+ELE       EFF+LCF       EFF+LCE




                            Low-carbon                   Electrificatio
                            electricity + Electrificatio   n + low-     Efficiency + Efficiency + Efficiency +
                            low-carbon      n + low-        carbon      Electrificatio low-carbon low-carbon
                               fuels      carbon fuels electricity            n           fuels    electricity

                              31.0%          0.0%         31.0%          0.0%          0.0%         31.0%

                               5.0%         40.0%          5.0%         40.0%         40.0%          5.0%
                               5.3%          3.7%          3.5%          2.5%          7.9%          7.5%
                              28.2%          0.0%         28.2%          0.0%          0.0%         28.2%
                              31.0%          0.0%         31.0%          0.0%          0.0%         31.0%

                               1.6%          0.0%          1.6%          0.0%          0.0%          1.6%

                               475           688           699           503            322           327
                               14.0          20.3          20.7          14.9           9.5           9.7




                              20.9%         12.5%          4.1%          3.3%         23.0%          6.6%
                              17.2%         25.2%          4.0%         12.5%         35.1%          5.6%
                               0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
                                5.5           5.5           0.8           1.0           5.5           0.8
                               30.0          38.4          33.1          29.7          18.4          18.4
                               35.5          43.9          33.9          30.7          23.9          19.2
                               0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
                                7.5           7.5           1.2           2.0           7.5           1.2
                               36.1          22.3          28.7          14.1          13.9          20.2
                               43.6          29.9          29.9          16.1          21.4          21.4
                               0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
                                2.0           2.0           2.0           1.0           2.0           2.0
                               0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
                               13.0          13.0           2.0           3.0          13.0           2.0
                               66.1          60.8          61.7          43.8          32.3          38.6
                               79.1          73.8          63.8          46.8          45.3          40.6
                               0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
  0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0
  0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0
  0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0
 93.2         94.1         84.4         61.7         54.9         50.3
  0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0
 80%          73%          74%          47%          39%          47%
         0            0            0            0            0            0
   0            0            0            0            0           0
  25           25           25           13           25          25
  69           69           11           13           69          11
  94           94           15           25           94          15
 188          188           50           50          188          50
 188          188          188          188          188          50
   0            0            0            0            0           0
         0            0            0            0            0            0
 125          125          50           50           125          50
         0            0            0            0            0            0
 63           63            0            0           63            0
         0            0            0            0            0            0
 188          188          50           50           188          50
         0            0            0            0            0            0
  0            0            0            0            0            0
         0            0            0            0            0            0
 21           222          31           163         104.2         16.4


  0            0            0             0            0           0
 193          148          159           66           89          104
  0            0            0             0            0           0
 399          243          299          139          162          221
  0            0            0             0            0           0
  0            0            0             0            0           0
  0            0            0             0            0           0
 613          613          489          368          355          341
  0            0            0             0            0           0
 117          117          117            8          117          117
         0            0            0            0            0            0
         0            0            0            0            0            0
         0            0            0            0            0            0
  0            0            0            0            0            0
30,283       50,693       23,386       35,444       27,579       14,788
26,242       43,928       20,265       30,714       23,899       12,815
43,637       29,856       29,856       16,062       21,430       21,430
69,879       73,784       50,121       46,776       45,329       34,245
         0            0            0            0            0            0
         0            0            0            0            0            0
         0            0            0            0            0            0
         0            0            0            0            0            0
         0            0            0            0            0            0
 21           222          31           163          104          16
 11           141          19           111           60           9
        9            82            12           51           44             8
      193           148           159           66           89           104
      399           243           299          139          162           221
      592           390           458          205          251           324
        0             0             0            0            0             0
      613           613           489          368          355           341
      117           117           117            8          117           117
386   386           386           386          386          386           386
 77    77            77            77           77           77            77
               0             0            0            0             0            0
               0             0            0            0             0            0
      147             0           217            0            0           102
      147             0           217            0            0           102
       24           275            35          201          129            16
       25            25            24           12           25            24
        0             0             0            0            0             0
      134             0           197            0            0            92
      477           300           690          214          154           336
               0             0            0            0             0            0
               0             0            0            0             0            0
        2.0           2.0          2.0          1.0           2.0          2.0
        0.5           3.4          0.1          0.6           2.9          0.1
        0.0           0.0          0.0          0.0           0.0          0.0
        5.0           2.1          0.7          0.4           2.6          0.7
        7.5           7.5          1.2          2.0           7.5          1.2
       30.0          38.4         33.1         29.7          18.4         18.4
       36.1          22.3         28.7         14.1          13.9         20.2
        0.0           0.0          0.0          0.0           0.0          0.0
       11.6          27.1         17.1         19.8          12.7          8.0
        0.0           0.0          0.0          0.0           0.0          0.0
      188.0         188.0         50.0         50.0         188.0         50.0
               0             0            0            0             0            0
       0.0           0.0           0.0          0.0          0.0           0.0
      35.5          43.9          33.9         30.7         23.9          19.2
      43.6          29.9          29.9         16.1         21.4          21.4
              0.0           0.0          0.0          0.0           0.0          0.0
                0             0            0            0             0            0
      79.1          73.8          63.8         46.8         45.3          40.6
Any 3 (again for plot)                                                           Short version of getting to 60
                                                                                 BAU


                         ELE+LCE+L EFF+ELE+L EFF+LCE+L EFF+ELE+L
BAU
                         CF        CF        CF        CE




                                        Median       Median
                           Median     without low-    without       Median
Business As                without       carbon    electrificatio without low-   Business As
Usual 2050                efficiency   electricity       n        carbon fuel    Usual 2050
       0.0%                      0.0%         0.0%          0.0%         0.0%           0.0%
   0.0%                    31.0%          0.0%        31.0%          31.0%          0.0%

   40.0%                    5.0%         40.0%         5.0%          5.0%           40.0%
    2.7%                    3.6%          5.0%         7.7%          4.8%            2.7%
    0.0%                   28.2%          0.0%        28.2%         28.2%            0.0%
    0.0%                   31.0%          0.0%        31.0%         31.0%            0.0%
    0.0%                    0.0%          0.0%         0.0%          0.0%            0.0%
    0.0%                    1.6%          0.0%         1.6%          1.6%            0.0%
    0.0%                    0.0%          0.0%         0.0%          0.0%            0.0%
     467                     699           503          327           512             467
    13.8                    20.7          14.9          9.7          15.1            13.8
       0                       0             0            0             0               0
     1.0                     2.0           2.0          2.0           2.0             1.0
    18.4                    17.1          19.8          8.0          12.5            18.4
      33                      40            37           20            30              33
       0                       0             0            0             0               0
           0                       0             0             0            0               0
           0                       0             0             0            0               0
   2.4%                    27.1%         18.5%        42.8%          6.6%           2.4%
   4.6%                    25.2%         47.8%        35.1%          7.6%           4.6%
   0.0%                     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%          0.0%           0.0%
    1.0                      5.5           5.5          5.5           0.8            1.0
   41.3                     28.4          24.2         13.7          21.9           41.3
   42.3                     33.9          29.7         19.2          22.7           42.3
   0.0%                     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%          0.0%           0.0%
    2.0                      7.5           7.5          7.5           1.2            2.0
   41.6                     22.3           8.2         13.9          14.7           41.6
   43.6                     29.9          15.7         21.4          15.9           43.6
   0.0%                     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%          0.0%           0.0%
    1.0                      2.0           2.0          2.0           2.0            1.0
   0.0%                     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%          0.0%           0.0%
    3.0                     13.0          13.0         13.0           2.0            3.0
   82.9                     50.7          32.4         27.6          36.5           82.9
   85.9                     63.8          45.4         40.6          38.6           85.9
   0.0%                     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%          0.0%           0.0%
  0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0
  0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0
  0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0
 99.8         84.4         60.3         50.3         53.7         99.8
  0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0
100%          61%          34%          33%          39%         100%
         0            0            0            0            0            0
  0             0            0            0            0           0
 13            25           25           25           25          13
 13            69           69           69           11          13
 25            94           94           94           15          25
 50           188          188          188           50          50
 50           188          188           50          188          50
  0             0            0            0            0           0
         0            0            0            0            0            0
 50           125          125          125          50           50
         0            0            0            0            0            0
  0           63           63           63            0            0
         0            0            0            0            0            0
 50           188          188          188          50           50
         0            0            0            0            0            0
  0            0            0            0            0            0
         0            0            0            0            0            0
151.0         27.4        162.7         13.8         23.4        151.0


  0            0             0            0            0           0
 230          128           58           71           64          230
  0            0             0            0            0           0
 450          243           92          162          145          450
  0            0             0            0            0           0
  0            0             0            0            0           0
  0            0             0            0            0           0
 830          398          312          247          233          830
  0            0             0            0            0           0
 117           8             8            8            8          117
         0            0            0            0            0            0
         0            0            0            0            0            0
         0            0            0            0            0            0
  0            0            0            0            0            0
48,827       23,386       34,270       14,788       14,711       48,827
42,311       20,265       29,697       12,815       12,748       42,311
43,637       29,856       15,738       21,430       15,855       43,637
85,948       50,121       45,435       34,245       28,603       85,948
         0            0            0            0            0            0
         0            0            0            0            0            0
         0            0            0            0            0            0
         0            0            0            0            0            0
         0            0            0            0            0            0
 151          27           163          14           23           151
 104          16            98           6           14           104
 47                 12            65             8            10           47
230                128            58            71            64          230
450                243            92           162           145          450
679                370           149           233           209          679
  0                  0             0             0             0            0
830                398           312           247           233          830
117                  8             8             8             8          117
386          386   386           386           386           386          386
 77           77    77            77            77            77           77
        0                   0             0             0            0            0
        0                   0             0             0            0            0
  0                217             0           102           159            0
  0                217             0           102           159            0
187                 35           201            16            26          187
 12                 25            25            25            24           12
  0                  0             0             0             0            0
  0                197             0            92           144            0
199                690           227           337           511          199
        0                   0             0             0            0            0
        0                   0             0             0            0            0
 1.0                 2.0           2.0           2.0          2.0          1.0
 0.4                 0.9           3.7           0.7          0.2          0.4
 0.0                 0.0           0.0           0.0          0.0          0.0
 0.6                 4.6           1.8           4.8          0.7          0.6
 2.0                 7.5           7.5           7.5          1.2          2.0
41.3                28.4          24.2          13.7         21.9         41.3
41.6                22.3           8.2          13.9         14.7         41.6
 0.0                 0.0           0.0           0.0          0.0          0.0
18.4                17.1          19.8           8.0         12.5         18.4
 0.0                 0.0           0.0           0.0          0.0          0.0
50.0               188.0         188.0         188.0         50.0         50.0
        0                   0             0             0            0            0
 0.0                0.0           0.0           0.0           0.0          0.0
42.3               33.9          29.7          19.2          22.7         42.3
43.6               29.9          15.7          21.4          15.9         43.6
       0.0                 0.0           0.0           0.0          0.0          0.0
         0                   0             0             0            0            0
85.9               63.8          45.4          40.6          38.6         85.9
Short version of getting to 60%                                    ZELB study
            Sequential addition of actions                         Median

                         +
                                        + Low-Carb + Low-Carb
            + Efficiency Electrificatio
                                        Elec       Fuels
                         n




              BAU with Efficiency +       Median       Median        Median
              efficiency Electrificatio without low-   Portrait      Portrait
                 only          n        carbon fuel     2050          2050      Nuclear   Coal/CCS
                     0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
                0.0%        0.0%           31.0%       31.0%         31.0%       0.0%      62.0%

               40.0%        40.0%          5.0%         5.0%          5.0%       5.0%       5.0%
                3.9%         2.5%          4.8%         4.8%          4.8%       4.9%       4.9%
                0.0%         0.0%         28.2%        28.2%         28.2%      28.1%      28.1%
                0.0%         0.0%         31.0%        31.0%         31.0%      62.0%       0.0%
                0.0%         0.0%          0.0%         0.0%
                0.0%         0.0%          1.6%         1.6%          1.6%       1.6%      1.6%
                0.0%         0.0%          0.0%         0.0%
                 322          503           512          522          522        517        517
                 9.5         14.9          15.1         15.4          15.4       15.3       15.3
                   0            0             0            0
                 1.0          1.0           2.0          2.0                      2.0       2.0
                12.7         19.8          12.5         12.7                      2.5       2.5
                  23           36            30           30                      20        20
                   0            0             0            0
                       0             0            0            0
                       0             0            0            0
                4.2%         3.3%          6.6%        47.0%         47.0%      51.6%      51.6%
                9.3%        12.5%          7.6%        48.5%         48.5%      49.5%      49.5%
                0.0%         0.0%          0.0%         0.0%
                 1.0          1.0           0.8          5.5           5.5        5.5        5.5
                22.9         29.7          21.9         16.4          16.4        5.2        5.2
                23.9         30.7          22.7         21.9          21.9       10.6       10.6
                0.0%         0.0%          0.0%         0.0%
                 2.0          2.0           1.2          7.5           7.5        7.5        7.5
                19.4         14.1          14.7          8.0           8.0        7.7        7.7
                21.4         16.1          15.9         15.5          15.5       15.2       15.2
                0.0%         0.0%          0.0%         0.0%
                 1.0          1.0           2.0          2.0           2.0        2.0       2.0
                0.0%         0.0%          0.0%         0.0%
                 3.0          3.0           2.0         13.0          13.0       13.0       13.0
                42.3         43.8          36.5         24.3          24.3       12.8       12.8
                45.3         46.8          38.6         37.4          37.4       25.8       25.8
                0.0%         0.0%          0.0%         0.0%
  0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0            0.0           0.0      0.0
  0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0            0.0           0.0      0.0
  0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0
 54.9         61.7         53.7         52.8            52.8         41.1      41.1
  0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0
 51%          47%          39%          26%             26%          14%       14%
         0            0            0            0
  0             0            0            0
 13            13           25           25              25           25        25
 13            13           11           69              69           69        69
 25            25           15           94              94           94        94
 50            50           50          188             188          188       188
 50           188          188          188                          188       188
  0             0            0            0
         0            0            0            0
 50           50           50           125             125          125       125
         0            0            0            0
  0            0            0           63               63           63       63
         0            0            0            0
 50           50           50           188             188          188       188
         0            0            0            0
  0            0            0            0
         0            0            0            0
104.2        162.7         23.4         19.1             19           13       38


  0             0            0            0
 106           66           64           41              41           39       39
  0             0            0            0
 213          139          145           91              91           89       89
  0             0            0            0
  0             0            0            0              0            0         0
  0             0            0            0
 423          368          233          151             151          141       167
  0             0            0            0
 117            8            8            8              8            8         8
         0            0            0            0
         0            0            0            0
         0            0            0            0
  0            0            0            0
27,579       35,444       14,711       13,481         13,481        12,284    12,284
23,899       30,714       12,748       11,682         11,682        10,645    10,645
21,430       16,062       15,855       15,500         15,500        15,177    15,177
45,329       46,776       28,603       27,182         27,182        25,822    25,822
         0            0            0            0
         0            0            0            0
         0            0            0            0
         0            0            0            0   Chart data -- see below
         0            0            0            0
 104          163          23           19               19           13       38
  71          111          14            9                9           19       19
 33           51           10           10                10             -7       19
106           66           64           41                41             39       39
213          139          145           91                91             89       89
319          205          209          132               132            128      128
  0            0            0            0                 0              0        0
423          368          233          151               151            141      167
117            8            8            8                 8              8        8
386          386          386          386
 77           77           77           77               77
        0            0            0             0
        0            0            0             0
  0            0          159          162               162            321        0
  0            0          159          162               162              0      321
129          201           26           26                26             26       26
 12           12           24           25                25             25       25
  0            0            0            0                 0              0        0
  0            0          144          147               147            145      145
141          214          511          522               522            517      517
        0            0            0             0
        0            0            0             0
 1.0          1.0          2.0           2.0             2.0            2.0       2.0
 0.5          0.6          0.2           1.2             1.2            1.3       1.3
 0.0          0.0          0.0           0.0             0.0            0.0       0.0
 0.5          0.4          0.7           4.3             4.3            4.2       4.2
 2.0          2.0          1.2           7.5             7.5            7.5       7.5
22.9         29.7         21.9          16.4            16.4            5.2       5.2
19.4         14.1         14.7           8.0             8.0            7.7       7.7
 0.0          0.0          0.0           0.0
12.7         19.8         12.5          12.7            12.7            2.5       2.5
 0.0          0.0          0.0           0.0
50.0         50.0         50.0         188.0            188.0       188.0        188.0
        0            0            0             0
 0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0
23.9         30.7         22.7         21.9             21.9            10.6     10.6
21.4         16.1         15.9         15.5             15.5            15.2     15.2
       0.0          0.0          0.0           0.0
         0            0            0             0
45.3         46.8         38.6         37.4             37.4            25.8     25.8


                                                     ZELB chart - old

                                                     GHG Emissions (MtCO2e/yr)


                                                      Balancing    Median


                                                                   151
                                                     50% ZELB/50% Nat. Gas
                                                     100% Nat. Gas 168
                                                     100% ZELB     133
                                                     2050 Target    77            77
ZELB chart - new

GHG Emissions from Electricity (MtCO2e/yr)


 Balancing      Median
100% ZELB          10
                   30
100% Nat. Gas      20
2050 Target        77         77
                       NG balancing




                                                                 Nat.
                       Median with Nuclear with   Coal/CCS    Gas/CCS     Renewables
  Nat.                     NG          NG          with NG     with NG      with NG
Gas/CCS   Renewables    Balancing   balancing     balancing   balancing    balancing

 62.0%      0.0%         31.0%        0.0%         57.0%       57.0%        0.0%

  5.0%      10.0%        10.0%        10.0%        10.0%       10.0%        20.0%
  4.8%       4.8%         4.9%         5.0%         5.0%        4.9%         4.9%
 28.2%      85.2%        28.1%        28.0%        28.0%       28.1%        75.1%
  0.0%       0.0%        26.0%        57.0%         0.0%        0.0%         0.0%

 1.6%       3.2%          0.0%        0.0%          0.0%        0.0%        0.0%

 526         527          514          510          510         518          512
 15.6        15.6         15.2         15.1         15.1        15.3         15.1

  2.0        2.0
 23.1        5.2
  41         23



 43.2%      40.5%        38.1%        41.1%        41.1%       35.9%        29.0%
 47.5%      49.3%        48.3%        49.3%        49.3%       47.5%        48.8%

  5.5         5.5          5.5          5.5          5.5         5.5          5.5
 27.8         8.1         19.0          7.9          7.9        28.4         13.5
 33.2        13.6         24.4         13.4         13.4        33.9         18.9

  7.5         7.5          7.5          7.5          7.5         7.5          7.5
  8.3         7.7          8.1          7.7          7.7         8.3          7.9
 15.8        15.3         15.6         15.3         15.3        15.8         15.4

  2.0        2.0           2.0         2.0           2.0         2.0         2.0

 13.0        13.0         13.0         13.0         13.0        13.0         13.0
 36.1        15.8         27.0         15.6         15.6        36.7         21.3
 49.1        28.8         40.0         28.6         28.6        49.7         34.4
 0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0
 0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0

 64.6     44.4     55.2     43.7     43.7     65.0     49.5

 38%      17%      28%      17%      17%      38%      23%


  25       25       25       25       25       25       25
  69       69       69       69       69       69       69
  94       94       94       94       94       94       94
 188      188      188      188      188      188      188
 188      188


 125      125      125      125      125      125      125

 63       63       63       63       63       63       63

 188      188      188      188      188      188      188




 26       24       30       24       47       36       49




 44       45       46       45       45       48       52

 92       90       91       90       90       92       90

  0        0        0        0        0        0        0

 161      159      168      158      181      176      191

  8        8        8        8        8        8        8




14,678   15,639   16,631   15,428   15,428   17,641   21,859
12,719   13,552   14,412   13,369   13,369   15,286   18,942
15,823   15,262   15,574   15,256   15,256   15,840   15,417
28,543   28,813   29,986   28,625   28,625   31,127   34,359




 26       24       30       24       47       36       49
 21       45       20        9        0        0        0
   5        -20                    10        15      47      36      49
  44         45                    46        45      45      48      52
  92         90                    91        90      90      92      90
 136        135                   138       135     135     140     142
   0          0                     0         0       0       0       0
 161        159                   168       158     181     176     191
   8          8                     8         8       8       8       8




   0          0                   134       291       0       0       0
 326          0                   159         0     291     295       0
  26         53                    51        51      51      52     102
  25         25                    25        25      25      25      25
   0          0                     0         0       0       0       0
 148        449                   144       143     143     146     384
 526        527                   514       510     510     518     512


  2.0       2.0                    2.0       2.0     2.0     2.0     2.0
  1.1       2.1                    1.9       2.1     2.1     1.8     2.9
  0.0       0.0                    0.0       0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
  4.4       3.4                    3.6       3.4     3.4     3.7     2.6
  7.5       7.5                    7.5       7.5     7.5     7.5     7.5
 27.8       8.1                   19.0       7.9     7.9    28.4    13.5
  8.3       7.7                    8.1       7.7     7.7     8.3     7.9

 23.1       5.2                   15.1       5.0     5.0    23.7    10.1

188.0      188.0                 188.0      188.0   188.0   188.0   188.0


 33.2      13.6                   24.4      13.4    13.4    33.9    18.9
 15.8      15.3                   15.6      15.3    15.3    15.8    15.4


 49.1      28.8                   40.0      28.6    28.6    49.7    34.4




            Nat.
Nuclear             Coal/CCS   Renewables
          Gas/CCS

 141        161       167         159
 158        176       181         191
 121        146       150         121
 77         77        77          77
icity (MtCO2e/yr)

                           Nat.
               Nuclear             Coal/CCS   Renewables      Notes
                         Gas/CCS
                     4      17       32           4
                    24      36       47          49
                    19      19       15          45        Adder for NG
                    77     77        77          77
                                                                Biomass GHG / Supply stud
ZELB




                                          Nat.                   Net Zero
Median with Nuclear with   Coal/CCS    Gas/CCS     Renewables   GHG + Low
  ZELB        ZELB         with ZELB   with ZELB    with ZELB    Biomass

  31.0%        0.0%         67.0%       67.0%        0.0%         31.0%

   0.0%         0.0%         0.0%        0.0%         0.0%         5.0%
   4.8%         4.8%         4.8%        4.7%         4.7%         1.3%
  28.2%        28.2%        28.2%       28.3%        95.3%        31.7%
  36.0%        67.0%         0.0%        0.0%         0.0%        31.0%

   3.2%        3.2%          3.2%        3.1%        6.2%          1.6%

   529          524          524         534          541          526
   15.6         15.5         15.5        15.8         16.0         15.6

                                                                    0.5
                                                                   12.9
                                                                    29



  61.9%        70.0%        70.0%       54.5%        70.0%        11.5%
  48.8%        49.8%        49.8%       47.6%        49.8%        12.7%

    5.5         5.5           5.5         5.5         5.5           1.5
   13.7         2.4           2.4        27.1         2.4          21.5
   19.2         7.8           7.8        32.6         7.8          22.9

    7.5          7.5          7.5         7.5          7.5          2.0
    7.9          7.6          7.6         8.3          7.6         13.8
   15.4         15.1         15.1        15.8         15.1         15.8

    2.0         2.0           2.0         2.0         2.0           0.5

   13.0         13.0         13.0        13.0         13.0          3.5
   21.6          9.9          9.9        35.4          9.9         35.3
   34.6         22.9         22.9        48.4         22.9         38.7
 0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0         0.0
 0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0         0.0

 50.2     38.4     38.4     64.2     38.9        54.3
                                                  0.0
 23%      11%      11%      37%      11%         37%


  25       25       25       25       25           7
  69       69       69       69       69          18
  94       94       94       94       94          25
 188      188      188      188      188          50
                                                  50


 125      125      125      125      125          50

 63       63       63       63       63           0

 188      188      188      188      188          50




 10        4       32       17        4           19




 33       28       28       37       28           60

 90       89       89       92       89          135

  0        0        0        0        0           0

 133      121      150      146      121         215

  8        8        8        8        8           8




10,238    9,049    9,049   11,620    9,049     14,627
 8,872    7,842    7,842   10,069    7,842     12,675
15,424   15,096   15,096   15,805   15,096     15,809
24,296   22,937   22,937   25,874   22,937     28,484




                                             Chart data -- see below

 10        4       32       17        4           19
  0        9        9       10       20            3
 10      -5      24       7     -16          16
 33      28      28      37      28          60
 90      89      89      92      89         135
123     117     117     129     117         196
  0       0       0       0       0           0
133     121     150     146     121         215
  8       8       8       8       8           8




190     351       0       0       0         163
164       0     351     358       0         163
  0       0       0       0       0          26
 25      25      25      25      25           7
  0       0       0       0       0           0
149     148     148     151     516         167
529     524     524     534     541         526


 2.0     2.0     2.0     2.0     2.0        0.5
 0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0        0.3
 0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0        0.0
 5.5     5.5     5.5     5.5     5.5        1.2
 7.5     7.5     7.5     7.5     7.5        2.0
13.7     2.4     2.4    27.1     2.4       21.5
 7.9     7.6     7.6     8.3     7.6       13.8

10.3     0.0     0.0    22.5     0.0       12.9

188.0   188.0   188.0   188.0   188.0      50.0


19.2     7.8     7.8    32.6     7.8       22.9
15.4    15.1    15.1    15.8    15.1       15.8


34.6    22.9    22.9    48.4    22.9       38.7


                                        Biomass GHG vs. Supply Ch

                                        Biomass GHG
                                        (% of fossil)
                                                  0%
                                        20% (Median)
                                              50%
Biomass GHG / Supply study




            Net Zero    Net Zero      Low     Median       High    50% GHG +              50% GHG +
              GHG      GHG + High   Biomass   Portrait   Biomass      Low      50% GHG       High
            Biomass     Biomass      Supply    2050       Supply    Biomass     Biomass    Biomass

             31.0%       31.0%      31.0%     31.0%      31.0%       31.0%      31.0%       31.0%

              5.0%        5.0%       5.0%      5.0%       5.0%        5.0%       5.0%        5.0%
              4.8%       11.3%       1.3%      4.8%      11.3%        1.3%       4.8%       11.3%
             28.2%       21.7%      31.7%     28.2%      21.7%       31.7%      28.2%       21.7%
             31.0%       31.0%      31.0%     31.0%      31.0%       31.0%      31.0%       31.0%

              1.6%       1.6%        1.6%      1.6%       1.6%       1.6%        1.6%       1.6%

              522            516     526       522        516        526         522        516
              15.4           15.3    15.6      15.4       15.3       15.6        15.4       15.3

               2.0            4.7     0.5       2.0        4.7        0.5         2.0        4.7
              12.7           12.6    12.9      12.7       12.6       12.9        12.7       12.6
               30             33      29        30         33         29          30         33



             47.0%       99.9%      11.5%     47.0%      99.9%       11.5%      47.0%       99.9%
             48.5%       99.6%      12.7%     48.5%      99.6%       12.7%      48.5%       99.6%

               5.5           10.4     1.5       5.5       10.4        1.5         5.5       10.4
              16.4           10.1    21.5      16.4       10.1       21.5        16.4       10.1
              21.9           20.5    22.9      21.9       20.5       22.9        21.9       20.5

               7.5           15.0     2.0       7.5       15.0        2.0         7.5       15.0
               8.0            0.1    13.8       8.0        0.1       13.8         8.0        0.1
              15.5           15.1    15.8      15.5       15.1       15.8        15.5       15.1

               2.0           4.7      0.5       2.0        4.7        0.5        2.0         4.7

              13.0           25.4     3.5      13.0       25.4        3.5        13.0       25.4
              24.3           10.1    35.3      24.3       10.1       35.3        24.3       10.1
              37.4           35.5    38.7      37.4       35.5       38.7        37.4       35.5
                  0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0
                  0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0

                 52.8      50.8     54.3     52.8     50.8     54.3     52.8     50.8
                  0.0       0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0
                 26%       11%      37%      26%      11%      37%      26%      11%


                  25        58       7        25       58       7        25       58
                  69       130      18        69      130      18        69      130
                  94       188      25        94      188      25        94      188
                 188       376      50       188      376      50       188      376
                 188       376      50       188      376      50       188      376


                 125       125      50       125      125      50       125      125

                  63       251       0       63       251       0       63       251

                 188       376      50       188      376      50       188      376




                  14        6       21       19       18       23       27       36




                  36        0       62       41       11       64       49       28

                  80        1       138      91       23       143      107      57

                  0         0        0        0        0        0        0        0

                 130        6       220      151      52       229      184      121

                  8         8        8        8        8        8        8        8




                13,481    11,993   14,627   13,481   11,993   14,627   13,481   11,993
                11,682    10,392   12,675   11,682   10,392   12,675   11,682   10,392
                15,500    15,099   15,809   15,500   15,099   15,809   15,500   15,099
                27,182    25,491   28,484   27,182   25,491   28,484   27,182   25,491




Chart data -- see below

                  14        6       21       19       18       23       27       36
                   0       13       11        9       14        0        8       14
                14          -7              9           10            4      23     19      22
                36           0             62           41           11      64     49      28
                80           1            138           91           23     143    107      57
               116           1            200          132           34     206    157      85
                 0           0              0            0            0       0      0       0
               130           6            220          151           52     229    184     121
                 8           8              8            8            8       8      8       8




               162         160            163          162          160     163    162     160
               162         160            163          162          160     163    162     160
                26          26             26           26           26      26     26      26
                25          58              7           25           58       7     25      58
                 0           0              0            0            0       0      0       0
               147         112            167          147          112     167    147     112
               522         516            526          522          516     526    522     516


                2.0         4.7            0.5          2.0          4.7     0.5    2.0     4.7
                1.2         2.5            0.3          1.2          2.5     0.3    1.2     2.5
                0.0         0.0            0.0          0.0          0.0     0.0    0.0     0.0
                4.3         7.8            1.2          4.3          7.8     1.2    4.3     7.8
                7.5        15.0            2.0          7.5         15.0     2.0    7.5    15.0
               16.4        10.1           21.5         16.4         10.1    21.5   16.4    10.1
                8.0         0.1           13.8          8.0          0.1    13.8    8.0     0.1

               12.7        12.6           12.9         12.7         12.6    12.9   12.7    12.6

               188.0      376.0           50.0         188.0        376.0   50.0   188.0   376.0


               21.9        20.5           22.9         21.9         20.5    22.9   21.9    20.5
               15.5        15.1           15.8         15.5         15.1    15.8   15.5    15.1


               37.4        35.5           38.7         37.4         35.5    38.7   37.4    35.5


Biomass GHG vs. Supply Chart

Biomass GHG            Supply (bgge/yr)
                                3.5             13.0         25.4
                                  215            130           6
20% (Median)                      220            151           52
                                  229            184          121
Getting to 80%
Single

                                                             Net Zero
                                No                                       Behavior
Median           100% CCS                      ZELB          GHG
                                Fossil/CCS                               Change
                                                             Biomass




  Median           100%                                       Net Zero
  Portrait        Capture                      Median with      GHG       Behavior
   2050           Median          Nuclear        ZELB         Biomass     Change
                       0.0%            0.0%                                    0.0%
  31.0%            31.0%           0.0%          31.0%         31.0%       31.0%

   5.0%             5.0%           5.0%           0.0%          5.0%        5.0%
   4.8%             4.8%           4.9%           4.8%          4.8%        5.2%
  28.2%            28.2%          28.1%          28.2%         28.2%       28.2%
  31.0%            31.0%          62.0%          36.0%         31.0%       30.6%
                         0.0%           0.0%                                     0.0%
   1.6%             1.6%           1.6%           3.2%          1.6%        1.6%
                         0.0%           0.0%                                     0.0%
   522               522            517           529           522          484
   15.4             15.4           15.3           15.6          15.4        14.3
                            0              0                                        0
                     2.0            2.0                          2.0         2.0
                    12.7            2.5                         12.7        11.8
                      30             20                          30           28
                         0.0%           0.0%                                     0.0%
                         0.0%           0.0%                                     0.0%
                         0.0%           0.0%                                     0.0%
  47.0%            47.0%          51.6%          61.9%         47.0%       52.3%
  48.5%            48.5%          49.5%          48.8%         48.5%       54.0%
                         0.0%           0.0%                                     0.0%
    5.5              5.5            5.5            5.5           5.5         5.5
   16.4             16.4            5.2           13.7          16.4        14.4
   21.9             21.9           10.6           19.2          21.9        19.9
                         0.0%           0.0%                                     0.0%
    7.5              7.5            7.5            7.5           7.5         7.5
    8.0              8.0            7.7            7.9           8.0         6.4
   15.5             15.5           15.2           15.4          15.5        13.9
                         0.0%           0.0%                                     0.0%
    2.0              2.0            2.0            2.0           2.0         2.0
                         0.0%           0.0%                                     0.0%
   13.0             13.0           13.0           13.0          13.0        13.0
   24.3             24.3           12.8           21.6          24.3        20.8
   37.4             37.4           25.8           34.6          37.4        33.8
                         0.0%           0.0%                                     0.0%
 0.0       0.0          0.0         0.0      0.0       0.0
 0.0       0.0          0.0         0.0      0.0       0.0
              0.0%         0.0%                           0.0%
 52.8     52.8         41.1         50.2     52.8     48.2
           0.0          0.0                            0.0
 26%      26%          14%          23%      26%      22%
              0.0%         0.0%                           0.0%
              0.0%         0.0%                           0.0%
  25       25           25           25       25       25
  69       69           69           69       69       69
  94       94           94           94       94       94
 188      188          188          188      188      188
          188          188                   188      188
              0.0%         0.0%                           0.0%
              0.0%         0.0%                           0.0%
 125      125          125          125      125      125
              0.0%         0.0%                           0.0%
 63        63           63          63       63        63
              0.0%         0.0%                           0.0%
 188      188          188          188      188      188
              0.0%         0.0%                           0.0%
              0.0%         0.0%                           0.0%
              0.0%         0.0%                           0.0%
 19        13           13          10       14        17


               0.0%         0.0%                           0.0%
 41       41           39           33       36       35
               0.0%         0.0%                           0.0%
 91       91           89           90       80       75
               0.0%         0.0%                           0.0%
  0        0            0            0        0        0
              0.0%         0.0%                           0.0%
 151      146          141          133      130      127
              0.0%         0.0%                           0.0%
  8         8            8           8        8         8
              0.0%         0.0%                           0.0%
              0.0%         0.0%                           0.0%
              0.0%         0.0%                           0.0%
              0.0%         0.0%                           0.0%
13,481   13,481       12,284       10,238   13,481   12,107
11,682   11,682       10,645        8,872   11,682   10,492
15,500   15,500       15,177       15,424   15,500   13,920
27,182   27,182       25,822       24,296   27,182   24,412
              0.0%         0.0%                           0.0%
              0.0%         0.0%                           0.0%
                 0            0                              0
              0.0%         0.0%                           0.0%
              0.0%         0.0%                           0.0%
 19        13           13          10       14        17
  9         9           19           0        0        14
 10                4          -7         10      14       3
 41               41          39         33      36      35
 91               91          89         90      80      75
132              132         128        123     116     110
  0                0           0          0       0       0
151              146         141        133     130     127
  8                8           8          8       8       8

 77     77       77           77         77      77      77
                     0.0%        0.0%                        0.0%
                     0.0%        0.0%                        0.0%
162              162         321        190     162      148
162              162           0        164     162      150
 26               26          26          0      26       24
 25               25          25         25      25       25
  0                0           0          0       0        0
147              147         145        149     147      136
522              522         517        529     522      484
                     0.0%        0.0%                        0.0%
                     0.0%        0.0%                        0.0%
 2.0              2.0         2.0        2.0     2.0      2.0
 1.2              1.2         1.3        0.0     1.2      1.2
 0.0              0.0         0.0        0.0     0.0      0.0
 4.3              4.3         4.2        5.5     4.3      4.2
 7.5              7.5         7.5        7.5     7.5      7.5
16.4             16.4         5.2       13.7    16.4     14.4
 8.0              8.0         7.7        7.9     8.0      6.4
                     0.0%        0.0%                        0.0%
12.7             12.7         2.5       10.3    12.7     11.8
                     0.0%        0.0%                        0.0%
188.0           188.0       188.0       188.0   188.0   188.0
                     0.0%        0.0%                        0.0%
                     0.0%        0.0%                        0.0%
21.9             21.9        10.6       19.2    21.9     19.9
15.5             15.5        15.2       15.4    15.5     13.9
                     0.0%        0.0%                        0.0%
                     0.0%        0.0%                        0.0%
37.4             37.4        25.8       34.6    37.4     33.8


             Difference from median
                   -6         -10        -18     -22     -24
                                       Multiple

                        High                        +
Biomass/CC
           Hydrogen     Biomass        Median       Biomass/CC + Hydrogen + ZELB
S
                        Supply                      S




             Hydrogen    Doubled         Median                           ZELB +
Biomass/Na     Nat.      biomass         Portrait   Biomass/Na H2/CCS + H2/CCS +
t. Gas/CCS   Gas/CCS      supply          2050      t. Gas/CCS  Bio/CCS   Bio/CCS
                              0.0%                         0.0%      0.0%      0.0%
  31.0%       31.0%       31.0%          31.0%         31.0%     31.0%     31.0%

   5.0%        5.0%        5.0%           5.0%         5.0%         5.0%         0.0%
  21.0%        5.0%       11.3%           4.8%        21.0%        23.2%        22.9%
  12.0%       28.2%       21.7%          28.2%        12.0%         9.8%        15.1%
  31.0%       30.9%       31.0%          31.0%        31.0%        31.0%        31.0%
                                0.0%                        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
   1.6%       1.6%         1.6%           1.6%         1.6%         1.6%         3.2%
                                0.0%                        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
   524         472          516           522           524          475          481
   15.5        14.0        15.3           15.4         15.5         14.0         14.2
                                   0                           0            0            0
    7.5         1.9         4.7                         7.5          7.5          7.5
   12.8        11.5        12.6                        12.8         11.6          9.4
    36          27           33                          36           33           31
                                0.0%                        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
                                0.0%                        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
                                0.0%                        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
   0.0%       62.2%       99.9%          47.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
  48.0%       63.7%       99.6%          48.5%        48.0%        62.7%        63.1%
                                0.0%                        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
    0.0         5.6        10.4            5.5          0.0          0.0          0.0
   22.5        12.6        10.1           16.4         22.5         18.7         16.3
   22.5        18.3        20.5           21.9         22.5         18.7         16.3
                                0.0%                        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
    7.5         7.5        15.0            7.5          7.5          7.5          7.5
    8.2         4.3         0.1            8.0          8.2          4.5          4.4
   15.7        11.8        15.1           15.5         15.7         12.0         11.9
                                0.0%                        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
   7.5         1.9          4.7            2.0          7.5          7.5          7.5
                                0.0%                        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
    7.5        13.2        25.4           13.0          7.5          7.5          7.5
   30.6        16.9        10.1           24.3         30.6         23.1         20.7
   38.2        30.1        35.5           37.4         38.2         30.6         28.2
                                0.0%                        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
 0.0      8.0       0.0         0.0       0.0           8.0           8.0
 0.0      7.9       0.0         0.0       0.0           7.9           7.9
                       0.0%                   0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
 53.7     51.9     50.8         52.8     53.7          52.5          50.3
                    0.0                   0.0           0.0           0.0
 32%      17%      11%          26%      32%           24%           22%
                       0.0%                   0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
                       0.0%                   0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
  94       24       58           25        94            94            94
   0       71      130           69         0             0             0
  94       94      188           94        94            94            94
 188      188      376          188      188           188           188
 188      188      376                   188           188           188
                       0.0%                   0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
                       0.0%                   0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
 125      125      125          125      125           125           125
                       0.0%                   0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
 63       63       251          63         63            63            63
                       0.0%                   0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
 188      188      376          188      188           188           188
                       0.0%                   0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
                       0.0%                   0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
                       0.0%                   0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
 -48      16        18          19        -48           -50           -63


                        0.0%                   0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
 68       23       11           41        68            47            47
                        0.0%                   0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
 92       53       23           91        92            54            53
                        0.0%                   0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
  0       20        0            0        0             25            25
                        0.0%                 0.0%            0.0%          0.0%
 112      111      52           151      112            76            62
                        0.0%                 0.0%            0.0%          0.0%
  8        8        8            8         8            8             8
                       0.0%                  0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
                       0.0%                  0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
                       0.0%                  0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
                       0.0%                  0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
14,140   10,457   11,993       13,481   14,140        10,852         8,009
12,253    9,062   10,392       11,682   12,253         9,404         6,940
15,678   11,807   15,099       15,500   15,678        11,987        11,919
27,931   20,869   25,491       27,182   27,931        21,391        18,859
                       0.0%                  0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
                       0.0%                  0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
                          0                     0             0             0
                       0.0%                  0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
                       0.0%                  0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
 -48      16        18          19       -48            -50           -63
  15      16         7           9        15             5             0
-62       0      11          10     -62         -55         -63
 68      23      11          41      68          47          47
 92      53      23          91      92          54          53
160      75      34         132     160         101         100
  0      20       0           0       0          25          25
112     111      52         151     112          76          62
  8       8       8           8       8           8           8

 77      77      77          77      77          77          77
                     0.0%                0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
                     0.0%                0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
163     146      160        162      163         147         149
163     146      160        162      163         147         149
 26      24       26         26       26          24           0
  0      23       58         25        0           0           0
110       0        0          0      110         110         110
 63     133      112        147       63          47          73
524     472      516        522      524         475         481
                     0.0%                0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
                     0.0%                0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 7.5     1.9      4.7        2.0      7.5         7.5         7.5
 0.0     1.4      2.5        1.2      0.0         0.0         0.0
 0.0     0.4      0.0        0.0      0.0         0.9         0.7
 0.0     3.7      7.8        4.3      0.0        -0.9        -0.7
 7.5     7.5     15.0        7.5      7.5         7.5         7.5
22.5    12.6     10.1       16.4     22.5        18.7        16.3
 8.2     4.3      0.1        8.0      8.2         4.5         4.4
                     0.0%                0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
12.8    11.5     12.6       12.7     12.8        11.6         9.4
                     0.0%                0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
188.0   188.0   376.0       188.0   188.0       188.0       188.0
                     0.0%                0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
                     0.0%                0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
22.5    18.3     20.5       21.9     22.5        18.7        16.3
15.7    11.8     15.1       15.5     15.7        12.0        11.9
                     0.0%                0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
                     0.0%                0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
38.2    30.1     35.5       37.4     38.2        30.6        28.2




 -39     -41     -99
                                             Getting to 80% from 100% renewables portrait
                                             Single

               + High         + Net Zero                             Net Zero
+ Behavior                                   100%                                    Behavior
               Biomass        GHG                                    GHG
Change                                       Renewables                              Change
               Supply         Biomass                                Biomass




           H2 NG/CCS H2 NG/CCS
H2 NG/CCS + Behavior + Behavior
+ Behavior Change +    Change +                                        Net Zero
 Change +    ZELB +     ZELB +                                           GHG     Behavior
  ZELB +    Bio/CCS + Bio/CCS +                                       Biomass + Change with
 Bio/CCS     HighBio   HighBio +             Renewables               100% RE    100% RE
      0.0%        0.0%      0.0%                   0.0%                     0.0%       0.0%
  31.0%       31.0%     31.0%                   0.0%                     0.0%      0.0%

   0.0%           0.0%           0.0%          10.0%                    10.0%           10.0%
  25.1%          47.1%          47.1%           4.8%                     4.8%            5.2%
  12.9%          12.0%          12.0%          85.2%                    85.2%           84.8%
  31.0%           9.8%           9.8%           0.0%                     0.0%            0.0%
        0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%                     0.0%            0.0%
   3.2%           3.2%           3.2%           3.2%                     3.2%            3.2%
        0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%                     0.0%            0.0%
    438            434            434            527                      527             488
   12.9           12.8           12.8           15.6                     15.6            14.4
           0              0              0              0                        0               0
    7.5           14.0           14.0            2.0                      2.0             2.0
    8.5            8.5            8.5            5.2                      5.2             4.8
     29             35             35             23                       23              21
        0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%                     0.0%            0.0%
        0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%                     0.0%            0.0%
        0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%                     0.0%            0.0%
   0.0%          97.9%          97.9%          40.5%                    40.5%           44.9%
  70.2%          99.7%          99.7%          49.3%                    49.3%           54.9%
        0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%                     0.0%            0.0%
    0.0            5.7            5.7            5.5                      5.5             5.5
   14.9            8.6            8.6            8.1                      8.1             6.7
   14.9           14.3           14.3           13.6                     13.6            12.2
        0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%                     0.0%            0.0%
    7.5           10.4           10.4            7.5                      7.5             7.5
    3.2            0.0            0.0            7.7                      7.7             6.2
   10.7           10.4           10.4           15.3                     15.3            13.7
        0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%                     0.0%            0.0%
    7.5           14.0           14.0            2.0                      2.0             2.0
        0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%                     0.0%            0.0%
    7.5           16.1           16.1           13.0                     13.0            13.0
   18.1            8.6            8.6           15.8                     15.8            12.9
   25.6           24.7           24.7           28.8                     28.8            25.9
        0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%                     0.0%            0.0%
  8.1           8.1           8.1           0.0          0.0         0.0
  7.9           7.9           7.9           0.0          0.0         0.0
      0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
 46.4          45.5          45.5          44.4         44.4         40.4
  0.0           0.0           0.0           0.0          0.0          0.0
 19%            8%            8%           17%          17%          14%
      0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
      0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
   94           175           175           25           25           25
    0            71            71           69           69           69
   94           130           130           94           94           94
 188            376           376          188          188          188
 188            376           376          188          188          188
      0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
      0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
 125            125           125          125          125          125
      0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
   63           251           251           63           63           63
      0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
 188            376           376          188          188          188
      0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
      0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
      0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
  -64          -122          -159           24           18           22


       0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
  42            8             1            45           41            38
       0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
  42            15            0            90           79            74
       0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
  25            17            15            0            0            0
       0.0%        0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
  46            -82          -143          159          137          134
       0.0%        0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
  8              8             8             8            8            8
     0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
 7,303         6,725         6,725        15,639       15,639       14,107
 6,329         5,827         5,827        13,552       13,552       12,225
10,706        10,432        10,432        15,262       15,262       13,698
17,035        16,259        16,259        28,813       28,813       25,923
     0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
        0             0             0             0            0            0
     0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
  -64          -122          -159           24           18           22
   0             0             0            45            0           30
 -64        -122         -159          -20          18          -8
  42           8           1            45          41          38
  42          15           0            90          79          74
  84          23           1           135         119         112
  25          17          15             0           0           0
  46         -82         -143          159         137         134
   8           8           8             8           8           8
                                       386         386         386
 77          77           77            77          77          77
     0.0%         0.0%         0.0%        0.0%        0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%         0.0%         0.0%        0.0%        0.0%         0.0%
 136          43           43            0           0           0
 136         134          134            0           0           0
   0           0            0           53          53          49
   0           0            0           25          25          25
 110         205          205            0           0           0
  56          52           52          449         449         414
 438         434          434          527         527         488
     0.0%        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%        0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%        0.0%         0.0%
  7.5        14.0         14.0          2.0         2.0         2.0
  0.0         0.0          0.0          2.1         2.1         2.2
  0.8         0.0          1.1          0.0         0.0         0.0
 -0.8         5.7          4.6          3.4         3.4         3.3
  7.5        10.4         10.4          7.5         7.5         7.5
 14.9         8.6          8.6          8.1         8.1         6.7
  3.2         0.0          0.0          7.7         7.7         6.2
     0.0%        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%        0.0%         0.0%
  8.5         8.5          8.5          5.2         5.2         4.8
     0.0%        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%        0.0%         0.0%
188.0       376.0        376.0        188.0       188.0       188.0
     0.0%        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%        0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%        0.0%         0.0%
 14.9        14.3         14.3         13.6        13.6        12.2
 10.7        10.4         10.4         15.3        15.3        13.7
     0.0%        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%        0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%        0.0%         0.0%
 25.6        24.7         24.7         28.8        28.8        25.9




                                                   -22         -25
                                                          Multiple

                                           High                          +
               Biomass/CC                                 100%
100% ZELB                 Hydrogen         Biomass                       Biomass/CC
               S                                          Renewables
                                           Supply                        S




                        Hydrogen               High
            Biomass/CC from Nat.             biomass                     Biomass/CC
Renewables S with 100% Gas/CCS +            imports +                    S with 100%
 with ZELB      RE      100% RE             100% RE       Renewables          RE
       0.0%        0.0%      0.0%                 0.0%          0.0%             0.0%
    0.0%       0.0%       0.0%                 0.0%          0.0%           0.0%

   0.0%          10.0%        10.0%          10.0%          10.0%          10.0%
   4.7%          20.8%         4.9%           9.9%           4.8%          20.8%
  95.3%          69.2%        85.1%          80.1%          85.2%          69.2%
   0.0%           0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
        0.0%           0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
   6.2%           3.2%         3.2%           3.2%           3.2%           3.2%
        0.0%           0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
    541            529          477            520            527            529
   16.0           15.6         14.1           15.4           15.6           15.6
           0              0            0              0              0              0
    2.0            7.5          1.9            4.1            2.0            7.5
    0.0            5.2          4.7            5.1            5.2            5.2
     18             28           21             25             23             28
        0.0%           0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
        0.0%           0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
        0.0%           0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
  70.0%           0.0%        51.1%          91.6%          40.5%           0.0%
  49.8%          48.7%        64.9%          99.7%          49.3%          48.7%
        0.0%           0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
    5.5            0.0          5.6           11.2            5.5            0.0
    2.4           14.1          5.4            1.0            8.1           14.1
    7.8           14.1         11.0           12.2           13.6           14.1
        0.0%           0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
    7.5            7.5          7.5           14.8            7.5            7.5
    7.6            7.9          4.1            0.0            7.7            7.9
   15.1           15.4         11.6           14.8           15.3           15.4
        0.0%           0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
    2.0            7.5          1.9            4.1            2.0            7.5
        0.0%           0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
   13.0            7.5         13.2           26.0           13.0            7.5
    9.9           22.1          9.5            1.1           15.8           22.1
   22.9           29.6         22.6           27.0           28.8           29.6
        0.0%           0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
  0.0          0.0           8.0          0.0          0.0         0.0
  0.0          0.0           7.9          0.0          0.0         0.0
     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
 38.9         45.2          44.6         42.4         44.4        45.2
  0.0          0.0           0.0          0.0          0.0         0.0
 11%          23%           9%           1%           17%         23%
     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
  25            94           24           52           25           94
  69             0           71          139           69            0
  94            94           94          185           94           94
 188          188           188          376          188         188
 188          188           188          376          188         188
     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
 125          125           125          125          125         125
     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
  63            63           63          251           63           63
     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
 188          188           188          376          188         188
     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
   4           -38           20           16           24          -38


       0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
  28           68           27           16           45           68
       0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
  89           91           51           23           90           91
       0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
  0             0           21            0            0            0
      0.0%        0.0%          0.0%          0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
  121          120          119          55           159          120
      0.0%        0.0%          0.0%          0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
    8           8             8           8             8           8
      0.0%        0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%        0.0%
      0.0%        0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%        0.0%
      0.0%        0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%        0.0%
      0.0%        0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%        0.0%
 9,049        16,312       12,740       14,051       15,639       16,312
 7,842        14,135       11,040       12,176       13,552       14,135
15,096        15,439       11,593       14,843       15,262       15,439
22,937        29,574       22,633       27,019       28,813       29,574
      0.0%        0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%        0.0%
      0.0%        0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%        0.0%
         0           0             0            0            0           0
      0.0%        0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%        0.0%
      0.0%        0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%        0.0%
    4          -38           20           16           24          -38
   20           8            36           18           45           8
 -16            -46         -17          -2         -20         -46
  28             68          27          16          45          68
  89             91          51          23          90          91
 117            159          79          39         135         159
   0              0          21           0           0           0
 121            120         119          55         159         120
   8              8           8           8           8           8
 386            386         386         386         386         386
  77             77          77          77          77          77
     0.0%           0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
     0.0%           0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
   0              0           0           0           0           0
   0              0           0           0           0           0
   0             53          48          52          53          53
  25              0          23          51          25           0
   0            110           0           0           0         110
 516            366         405         417         449         366
 541            529         477         520         527         529
     0.0%           0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
     0.0%           0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
  2.0            7.5         1.9         4.1         2.0         7.5
  0.0            0.0         2.4         4.7         2.1         0.0
  0.0            0.0         0.0         1.1         0.0         0.0
  5.5            0.0         3.2         5.4         3.4         0.0
  7.5            7.5         7.5        14.8         7.5         7.5
  2.4           14.1         5.4         1.0         8.1        14.1
  7.6            7.9         4.1         0.0         7.7         7.9
     0.0%           0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
  0.0            5.2         4.7         5.1         5.2         5.2
     0.0%           0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
188.0          188.0       188.0       376.0       188.0       188.0
     0.0%           0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
     0.0%           0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
  7.8           14.1        11.0        12.2        13.6        14.1
 15.1           15.4        11.6        14.8        15.3        15.4
     0.0%           0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
     0.0%           0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 22.9           29.6        22.6        27.0        28.8        29.6


            Difference from 100% RE
 -38             -39          -40      -104
                                                                           Getting to 80% (OLD)



               + Net Zero                               + High
+ Behavior                    + 100%
               GHG                           + Hydrogen Biomass            Median
Change                        ZELB
               Biomass                                  Supply




                                100% RE +                   100% RE +
                      100% RE   Bio/CCS +                   Bio/CCS +
           100% RE +Bio/CCS + Behavior +                    Behavior +
 100% RE +Bio/CCS + Behavior +   NZEB +                      NZEB +          Median
+Bio/CCS + Behavior +  NZEB +   ZELB + H2                   ZELB + H2        Portrait
 Behavior    NZEB       ZELB     NG/CCS                     NG/CCS +          2050
      0.0%       0.0%      0.0%       0.0%                        0.0%
   0.0%      0.0%       0.0%       0.0%                        0.0%          31.0%

  10.0%          10.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           5.0%
  22.4%          22.4%          21.8%          24.6%          48.0%           4.8%
  67.6%          67.6%          78.2%          75.4%          52.0%          28.2%
   0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%          31.0%
        0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
   3.2%           3.2%           6.2%           6.2%           6.3%           1.6%
        0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
    491            491            504            448            444           522
   14.5           14.5           14.9           13.2           13.1           15.4
           0              0              0              0              0
    7.5            7.5            7.5            7.5           14.6
    4.8            4.8            0.0            0.0            0.0
     27             27             22             21             28
        0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
        0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
        0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
   0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%          99.8%          47.0%
  54.2%          54.2%          54.8%          72.0%          99.8%          48.5%
        0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
    0.0            0.0            0.0            0.0            5.4            5.5
   12.8           12.8            7.5            5.8            0.0           16.4
   12.8           12.8            7.5            5.8            5.4           21.9
        0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
    7.5            7.5            7.5            7.5           10.2            7.5
    6.4            6.4            6.2            2.9            0.0            8.0
   13.9           13.9           13.7           10.4           10.2           15.5
        0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
    7.5            7.5            7.5            7.5           14.6            2.0
        0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
    7.5            7.5            7.5            7.5           15.5           13.0
   19.2           19.2           13.7            8.8            0.0           24.3
   26.7           26.7           21.2           16.3           15.6           37.4
        0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
  0.0           8.0         #VALUE!          8.1          8.1          0.0
  0.0           7.9         #VALUE!          7.9          7.9          0.0
      0.0%          0.0%           0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
 41.2          49.1         #VALUE!         37.4         36.6          52.8
  0.0           0.0            0.0           0.0          0.0
 20%           20%            15%           8%           -1%           26%
      0.0%          0.0%           0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
      0.0%          0.0%           0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
   94            94             94           94           182           25
    0             0              0            0            67           69
   94            94             94           94           127           94
 188           188            188           188           376          188
 188           188            188           188           376
      0.0%          0.0%           0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
      0.0%          0.0%           0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
 125           125            125           125           125          125
      0.0%          0.0%           0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
   63            63             63           63           251          63
      0.0%          0.0%           0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
 188           188            188           188           376          188
      0.0%          0.0%           0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
      0.0%          0.0%           0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
      0.0%          0.0%           0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
  -41           -60            -88          -88          -170          19


       0.0%          0.0%           0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
  61            61             61           42            0            41
       0.0%          0.0%           0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
  75            64             63           29            0            91
       0.0%          0.0%           0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
  0             0               0           25            14            0
       0.0%          0.0%           0.0%         0.0%        0.0%
  96            65             36            9           -156          151
       0.0%          0.0%           0.0%         0.0%        0.0%
  8             8               8            8             8            8
     0.0%          0.0%            0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%          0.0%            0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%          0.0%            0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%          0.0%            0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
14,781        14,781          8,639         6,737        6,198        13,481
12,808        12,808          7,486         5,838        5,371        11,682
13,876        13,876         13,722        10,438       10,183        15,500
26,684        26,684         21,208        16,276       15,554        27,182
     0.0%          0.0%            0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%          0.0%            0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
        0             0               0            0            0
     0.0%          0.0%            0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%          0.0%            0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
 -41           -60             -88           -88         -170          19
  16            28              28            0            0            9
 -57         -88        -116         -88        -170         10
  61          61          61          42           0         41
  75          64          63          29           0         91
 136         125         124          72           0        132
   0           0           0          25          14          0
  96          65          36           9        -156        151
   8           8           8           8           8          8
 386         386         386         386         386
  77          77          77          77          77         77     77
     0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
     0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
   0           0           0           0           0        162
   0           0           0           0           0        162
  49          49           0           0           0         26
   0           0           0           0           0         25
 110         110         110         110         213          0
 332         332         394         338         231        147
 491         491         504         448         444        522
     0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
     0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
  7.5         7.5         7.5         7.5        14.6        2.0
  0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0        1.2
  0.3         0.6         0.0         0.0         1.1        0.0
 -0.3        -0.6         0.0         0.0         4.3        4.3
  7.5         7.5         7.5         7.5        10.2        7.5
 12.8        12.8         7.5         5.8         0.0       16.4
  6.4         6.4         6.2         2.9         0.0        8.0
     0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
  4.8         4.8         0.0         0.0         0.0       12.7
     0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
188.0       188.0       188.0       188.0       376.0       188.0
     0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
     0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 12.8        12.8         7.5         5.8         5.4       21.9
 13.9        13.9        13.7        10.4        10.2       15.5
     0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
     0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 26.7        26.7        21.2        16.3        15.6       37.4
Any 1 action                                        Any 2


                                                    ZELB+BCC ZELB+NZE NZEB+BCC
BCCS           ZELB        NZEB        H2
                                                    S        B        S




                            Net Zero    Hydrogen
Biomass/Nat. Median with      GHG         Nat.       ZELB +    ZELB + Net Net Zero Bio
  Gas/CCS      ZELB         Biomass     Gas/CCS      Bio/CCS    Zero Bio   + Bio/CCS

   31.0%         31.0%       31.0%          31.0%     31.0%      31.0%       31.0%

    5.0%          0.0%        5.0%           5.0%      0.0%       0.0%        5.0%
   21.0%          4.8%        4.8%           5.0%     20.7%       4.8%       21.0%
   12.0%         28.2%       28.2%          28.2%     17.3%      28.2%       12.0%
   31.0%         36.0%       31.0%          30.9%     31.0%      36.0%       31.0%

   1.6%          3.2%        1.6%           1.6%       3.2%      3.2%         1.6%

    524           529         522           472        531        529         524
    15.5          15.6        15.4          14.0       15.7       15.6        15.5

     7.5                       2.0           1.9        7.5        2.0         7.5
    12.8                      12.7          11.5       10.4       10.3        12.8
     36                        30            27         34         28          36



    0.0%         61.9%       47.0%          62.2%      0.0%      61.9%        0.0%
   48.0%         48.8%       48.5%          63.7%     48.2%      48.8%       48.0%

     0.0           5.5         5.5           5.6        0.0        5.5         0.0
    22.5          13.7        16.4          12.6       19.8       13.7        22.5
    22.5          19.2        21.9          18.3       19.8       19.2        22.5

     7.5           7.5         7.5           7.5        7.5        7.5         7.5
     8.2           7.9         8.0           4.3        8.1        7.9         8.2
    15.7          15.4        15.5          11.8       15.6       15.4        15.7

    7.5           2.0         2.0            1.9       7.5        2.0         7.5

     7.5          13.0        13.0          13.2        7.5       13.0         7.5
    30.6          21.6        24.3          16.9       27.9       21.6        30.6
    38.2          34.6        37.4          30.1       35.4       34.6        38.2
 0.0      0.0      0.0      8.0      0.0      0.0      0.0
 0.0      0.0      0.0      7.9      0.0      0.0      0.0

 53.7     50.2     52.8     51.9     51.1     50.2     53.7

 32%      23%      26%      17%      29%      23%      32%


  94       25       25       24       94       25       94
   0       69       69       71        0       69        0
  94       94       94       94       94       94       94
 188      188      188      188      188      188      188
 188               188      188      188      188      188


 125      125      125      125      125      125      125

 63       63       63       63       63       63       63

 188      188      188      188      188      188      188




 -48      10       14       16       -63       6       -67




 68       33       36       23       68       26       68

 92       90       80       53       91       79       81

  0        0        0       20        0        0        0

 112      133      130      111      97       111      82

  8        8        8        8        8        8        8




14,140   10,238   13,481   10,457   10,882   10,238   14,140
12,253    8,872   11,682    9,062    9,430    8,872   12,253
15,678   15,424   15,500   11,807   15,602   15,424   15,678
27,931   24,296   27,182   20,869   25,032   24,296   27,931




 -48      10       14       16       -63       6       -67
  15       0        0       16        0        0        13
-62      10      14       0          -63       6     -81
 68      33      36      23           68      26      68
 92      90      80      53           91      79      81
160     123     116      75          159     105     149
  0       0       0      20            0       0       0
112     133     130     111           97     111      82
  8       8       8       8            8       8       8
-39     -18     -22     -41
 77      77      77      77     77    77      77      77


163     190     162     146          165     190     163
163     164     162     146          165     164     163
 26       0      26      24            0       0      26
  0      25      25      23            0      25       0
110       0       0       0          110       0     110
 63     149     147     133           92     149      63
524     529     522     472          531     529     524


 7.5     2.0     2.0     1.9          7.5     2.0     7.5
 0.0     0.0     1.2     1.4          0.0     0.0     0.0
 0.0     0.0     0.0     0.4          0.4     0.0     0.0
 0.0     5.5     4.3     3.7         -0.4     5.5     0.0
 7.5     7.5     7.5     7.5          7.5     7.5     7.5
22.5    13.7    16.4    12.6         19.8    13.7    22.5
 8.2     7.9     8.0     4.3          8.1     7.9     8.2

12.8    10.3    12.7    11.5         10.4    10.3    12.8

188.0   188.0   188.0   188.0        188.0   188.0   188.0


22.5    19.2    21.9    18.3         19.8    19.2    22.5
15.7    15.4    15.5    11.8         15.6    15.4    15.7


38.2    34.6    37.4    30.1         35.4    34.6    38.2
                                    Any 3


                                    ZELF+NZE ZELB+H2+B ZELB+NZEB NZEB+H2+B
ZELB+H2   H2+BCCS    NZEB+H2
                                    B+BCCS   CCS       +H2       CCS




                                    ZELB + Net    ZELB +      ZELB +     H2/CCS +
 ZELB +   H2/CCS +    H2/CCS +      Zero Bio +   H2/CCS +    H2/CCS + Net Zero Bio
 H2/CCS   Bio/CCS    Net Zero Bio    Bio/CCS     Bio/CCS    Net Zero Bio + Bio/CCS

  31.0%     31.0%      31.0%          31.0%       31.0%       31.0%       31.0%

   0.0%      5.0%       5.0%           0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        5.0%
   4.9%     23.2%       5.0%          20.7%       22.9%        4.9%       23.2%
  28.2%      9.8%      28.2%          17.3%       15.1%       28.2%        9.8%
  36.0%     31.0%      30.9%          31.0%       31.0%       36.0%       31.0%

  3.2%      1.6%        1.6%           3.2%       3.2%         3.2%       1.6%

   479      475         472            531         481         479         475
   14.2     14.0        14.0           15.7        14.2        14.2        14.0

   1.9       7.5         1.9            7.5        7.5         1.9          7.5
   9.3      11.6        11.5           10.4        9.4         9.3         11.6
   25        33          27             34         31          25           33



  85.3%      0.0%      62.2%           0.0%        0.0%       85.3%        0.0%
  64.1%     62.7%      63.7%          48.2%       63.1%       64.1%       62.7%

    5.6      0.0         5.6            0.0         0.0         5.6         0.0
   10.3     18.7        12.6           19.8        16.3        10.3        18.7
   15.9     18.7        18.3           19.8        16.3        15.9        18.7

    7.5      7.5         7.5            7.5         7.5         7.5         7.5
    4.2      4.5         4.3            8.1         4.4         4.2         4.5
   11.7     12.0        11.8           15.6        11.9        11.7        12.0

   1.9       7.5         1.9           7.5         7.5         1.9         7.5

   13.2      7.5        13.2            7.5         7.5        13.2         7.5
   14.5     23.1        16.9           27.9        20.7        14.5        23.1
   27.7     30.6        30.1           35.4        28.2        27.7        30.6
 8.0      8.0      8.0      0.0      8.0      8.0      8.0
 7.9      7.9      7.9      0.0      7.9      7.9      7.9

 49.7     52.5     51.9     51.1     50.3     49.7     52.5

 15%      24%      17%      29%      22%      15%      24%


  24       94       24       94       94       24       94
  71        0       71        0        0       71        0
  94       94       94       94       94       94       94
 188      188      188      188      188      188      188
 188      188      188      188      188      188      188


 125      125      125      125      125      125      125

 63       63       63       63       63       63       63

 188      188      188      188      188      188      188




  9       -50      10       -82      -63       5       -69




 14       47       18       68       47        7       47

 52       54       42       80       53       41       43

 18       25       18        0       25       16       25

 93       76       88       66       62       70       46

  8        8        8        8        8        8        8




 7,629   10,852   10,457   10,882    8,009    7,629   10,852
 6,611    9,404    9,062    9,430    6,940    6,611    9,404
11,739   11,987   11,807   15,602   11,919   11,739   11,987
18,349   21,391   20,869   25,032   18,859   18,349   21,391




  9       -50      10       -82      -63       5       -69
  0        5        0        0        0       15        0
  9     -55      10          -82     -63      -10     -69
 14      47      18           68      47        7      47
 52      54      42           80      53       41      43
 66     101      60          148     100       48      90
 18      25      18            0      25       16      25
 93      76      88           66      62       70      46
  8       8       8            8       8        8       8

 77      77      77     77    77      77      77      77


172     147     146          165     149     172     147
148     147     146          165     149     148     147
  0      24      24            0       0       0      24
 23       0      23            0       0      23       0
  0     110       0          110     110       0     110
135      47     133           92      73     135      47
479     475     472          531     481     479     475


 1.9     7.5     1.9          7.5     7.5     1.9     7.5
 0.0     0.0     1.4          0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
 0.9     0.9     0.7          0.0     0.7     0.0     0.0
 4.7    -0.9     3.5          0.0    -0.7     5.6     0.0
 7.5     7.5     7.5          7.5     7.5     7.5     7.5
10.3    18.7    12.6         19.8    16.3    10.3    18.7
 4.2     4.5     4.3          8.1     4.4     4.2     4.5

 9.3    11.6    11.5         10.4     9.4     9.3    11.6

188.0   188.0   188.0        188.0   188.0   188.0   188.0


15.9    18.7    18.3         19.8    16.3    15.9    18.7
11.7    12.0    11.8         15.6    11.9    11.7    12.0


27.7    30.6    30.1         35.4    28.2    27.7    30.6
              Any action (Biomass)                      Any action (again)
All 4


                             100%       Biomass/Co
              Median                                    Median
                             Biomass    al/CCS


ZELB+NZEB
+H2+BCCS


  ZELB +
  H2/CCS
 +Net Zero      Median          High    Biomass/Co        Median
   Bio +        Portrait      Biomass     al/CCS          Portrait
  Bio/CCS        2050          Supply    (Williams)        2050
                     0.0%                       0.0%           0.0%
   31.0%        31.0%          31.0%       0.0%           31.0%

    0.0%         5.0%           5.0%        5.0%           5.0%
   22.9%         4.8%          11.3%        0.0%           4.8%
   15.1%        28.2%          21.7%       22.6%          28.2%
   31.0%        31.0%          31.0%       31.0%          31.0%
                      0.0%                       0.0%           0.0%
    3.2%         1.6%           1.6%        1.6%           1.6%
                      0.0%                       0.0%           0.0%
    481           522           516          510            522
    14.2         15.4           15.3         15.1          15.4
                         0                          0              0
        7.5       2.0            4.7          0.0           2.0
        9.4      12.7           12.6          2.5          12.7
        31         30            33           18             30
                      0.0%                       0.0%           0.0%
                      0.0%                       0.0%           0.0%
                      0.0%                       0.0%           0.0%
    0.0%        47.0%          99.9%        0.0%          47.0%
   63.1%        48.5%          99.6%      190.7%          48.5%
                      0.0%                       0.0%           0.0%
     0.0          5.5           10.4          0.0           5.5
    16.3         16.4           10.1          9.1          16.4
    16.3         21.9           20.5          9.1          21.9
                      0.0%                       0.0%           0.0%
     7.5          7.5           15.0         28.0           7.5
     4.4          8.0            0.1        -13.3           8.0
    11.9         15.5           15.1         14.7          15.5
                      0.0%                       0.0%           0.0%
        7.5       2.0           4.7           0.0           2.0
                      0.0%                       0.0%           0.0%
     7.5         13.0           25.4         28.0          13.0
    20.7         24.3           10.1         -4.2          24.3
    28.2         37.4           35.5         23.8          37.4
                      0.0%                       0.0%           0.0%
 8.0       0.0         0.0       0.0           0.0
 7.9       0.0         0.0       0.0           0.0
              0.0%                  0.0%          0.0%
 50.3     52.8         50.8     38.9          52.8
           0.0                   0.0           0.0
 22%      26%          11%      -4%           26%
              0.0%                  0.0%          0.0%
              0.0%                  0.0%          0.0%
  94       25           58        0            25
   0       69          130        0            69
  94       94          188      350            94
 188      188          376      350           188
 188      188          376      188           188
              0.0%                  0.0%          0.0%
              0.0%                  0.0%          0.0%
 125      125          125      125           125
              0.0%                  0.0%          0.0%
 63        63          251       63            63
              0.0%                  0.0%          0.0%
 188      188          376      188           188
              0.0%                  0.0%          0.0%
              0.0%                  0.0%          0.0%
              0.0%                  0.0%          0.0%
 -83       19          18        14            19


               0.0%                   0.0%         0.0%
 47       41           11        68           41
               0.0%                  0.0%          0.0%
 43       91           23        -98          91
               0.0%                  0.0%          0.0%
 25        0            0          0           0
              0.0%                   0.0%         0.0%
 32       151          52        -15          151
              0.0%                   0.0%         0.0%
  8         8           8          8           803.6%
              0.0%                   0.0%         0.0%
              0.0%                   0.0%         0.0%
              0.0%                   0.0%         0.0%
              0.0%                   0.0%         0.0%
 8,009   13,481       11,993   10,485        13,481
 6,940   11,682       10,392    9,086        11,682
11,919   15,500       15,099   14,692        15,500
18,859   27,182       25,491   23,778        27,182
              0.0%                   0.0%         0.0%
              0.0%                   0.0%         0.0%
                 0                      0            0
              0.0%                   0.0%         0.0%
              0.0%                   0.0%         0.0%
 -83       19          18         14           19
  13        9          14         15            9
      -96     10           4        0          10
       47     41          11       68          41
       43     91          23      -98          91
       90    132          34      -30         132
       25      0           0        0           0
       32    151          52      -15         151
        8      8           8        8           8
                         -99      386         386
77    77      77          77       77          77
                  0.0%                0.0%        0.0%
                  0.0%                0.0%        0.0%
     149      162        160      158         162
     149      162        160        0         162
       0       26         26       25          26
       0       25         58        0          25
     110        0          0        0           0
      73      147        112      115         147
     481      522        516      299         522
                  0.0%                0.0%        0.0%
                  0.0%                0.0%        0.0%
      7.5      2.0        4.7      0.0         2.0
      0.0      1.2        2.5      0.0         1.2
      0.9      0.0        0.0      0.0         0.0
     -0.9      4.3        7.8      0.0         4.3
      7.5      7.5       15.0     28.0         7.5
     16.3     16.4       10.1      9.1        16.4
      4.4      8.0        0.1    -13.3         8.0
                  0.0%                0.0%        0.0%
      9.4     12.7       12.6      2.5        12.7
                  0.0%                0.0%        0.0%
     188.0   188.0       376.0   188.0       188.0
                  0.0%                0.0%        0.0%
                  0.0%                0.0%        0.0%
     16.3     21.9       20.5      9.1        21.9
     11.9     15.5       15.1     14.7        15.5
                  0.0%                0.0%        0.0%
                  0.0%                0.0%        0.0%
     28.2     37.4       35.5     23.8        37.4
Any action (again)                                                             Any 2 (again)



                               Net-Zero
                                                                Biomass/CC
                     100% ZELF GHG               Hydrogen                      Median
                                                                S
                               Biomass




                                    Net Zero      Hydrogen                       Median
                     Median with      GHG           Nat.    Biomass/Na           Portrait
                       ZELB         Biomass       Gas/CCS t. Gas/CCS              2050
                           0.0%          0.0%          0.0%        0.0%               0.0%
                       31.0%         31.0%         31.0%       31.0%             31.0%

                        0.0%         5.0%           5.0%           5.0%           5.0%
                        4.8%         4.8%           5.0%          21.0%           4.8%
                       28.2%        28.2%          28.2%          12.0%          28.2%
                       36.0%        31.0%          30.9%          31.0%          31.0%
                             0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
                        3.2%         1.6%           1.6%           1.6%           1.6%
                             0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
                         529          522            472            524            522
                        15.6         15.4           14.0           15.5           15.4
                                0            0              0              0              0
                         2.0          2.0            1.9            7.5            2.0
                        10.3         12.7           11.5           12.8           12.7
                          28           30             27             36             30
                             0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
                             0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
                             0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
                       61.9%        47.0%          62.2%           0.0%          47.0%
                       48.8%        48.5%          63.7%          48.0%          48.5%
                             0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
                         5.5          5.5            5.6            0.0            5.5
                        13.7         16.4           12.6           22.5           16.4
                        19.2         21.9           18.3           22.5           21.9
                             0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
                         7.5          7.5            7.5            7.5            7.5
                         7.9          8.0            4.3            8.2            8.0
                        15.4         15.5           11.8           15.7           15.5
                             0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
                         2.0          2.0            1.9            7.5            2.0
                             0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
                        13.0         13.0           13.2            7.5           13.0
                        21.6         24.3           16.9           30.6           24.3
                        34.6         37.4           30.1           38.2           37.4
                             0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%           0.0%
  0.0           0.0          8.0           0.0           0.0
  0.0           0.0          7.9           0.0           0.0
     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%           0.0%         0.0%
 50.2          52.8         51.9          53.7          52.8
  0.0           0.0          0.0           0.0           0.0
 23%           26%          17%           32%           26%
     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%           0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%           0.0%         0.0%
  25            25           24             94           25
  69            69           71              0           69
  94            94           94             94           94
 188           188          188           188           188
 188           188          188           188           188
     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%           0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%           0.0%         0.0%
 125           125          125           125           125
     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%           0.0%         0.0%
  63            63           63             63           63
     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%           0.0%         0.0%
 188           188          188           188           188
     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%           0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%           0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%           0.0%         0.0%
  10            14           16            -48           19


       0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%
  33           36            23            68           41
       0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%
  90           80            53            92           91
       0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%
  0             0            20            0             0
      0.0%         0.0%          0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
  133          130           111          112           151
      0.0%         0.0%          0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
   803.6%       803.6%        803.6%       803.6%        803.6%
      0.0%         0.0%          0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
      0.0%         0.0%          0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
      0.0%         0.0%          0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
      0.0%         0.0%          0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
10,238        13,481       10,457        14,140        13,481
 8,872        11,682        9,062        12,253        11,682
15,424        15,500       11,807        15,678        15,500
24,296        27,182       20,869        27,931        27,182
      0.0%         0.0%          0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
      0.0%         0.0%          0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
         0            0             0            0             0
      0.0%         0.0%          0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
      0.0%         0.0%          0.0%         0.0%          0.0%
   10           14            16          -48            19
    0            0            16           15             9
       10          14           0         -62          10
       33          36          23          68          41
       90          80          53          92          91
      123         116          75         160         132
        0           0          20           0           0
      133         130         111         112         151
        8           8           8           8           8
      386         386         386         386         386
77     77          77          77          77          77        77
          0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
          0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
      190         162         146         163         162
      164         162         146         163         162
        0          26          24          26          26
       25          25          23           0          25
        0           0           0         110           0
      149         147         133          63         147
      529         522         472         524         522
          0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
          0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
       2.0         2.0         1.9         7.5         2.0
       0.0         1.2         1.4         0.0         1.2
       0.0         0.0         0.4         0.0         0.0
       5.5         4.3         3.7         0.0         4.3
       7.5         7.5         7.5         7.5         7.5
      13.7        16.4        12.6        22.5        16.4
       7.9         8.0         4.3         8.2         8.0
          0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
      10.3        12.7        11.5        12.8        12.7
          0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
     188.0       188.0       188.0       188.0       188.0
          0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
          0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
      19.2        21.9        18.3        22.5        21.9
      15.4        15.5        11.8        15.7        15.5
          0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
          0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
      34.6        37.4        30.1        38.2        37.4
                                                                                    Any 3 (again)



ZELF+NZE                                   ZELB+BCC NZEB+BCC
         ZELB+H2            NZEB+H2                          H2+BCCS                Median
B                                          S        S




                                                                                      Median
ZELB + Net     ZELB +    H2/CCS +           ZELB +    Net Zero Bio H2/CCS +           Portrait
 Zero Bio      H2/CCS Net Zero Bio          Bio/CCS    + Bio/CCS   Bio/CCS             2050
      0.0%          0.0%      0.0%               0.0%        0.0%       0.0%               0.0%
  31.0%         31.0%     31.0%              31.0%       31.0%      31.0%             31.0%

   0.0%         0.0%           5.0%           0.0%         5.0%         5.0%           5.0%
   4.8%         4.9%           5.0%          20.7%        21.0%        23.2%           4.8%
  28.2%        28.2%          28.2%          17.3%        12.0%         9.8%          28.2%
  36.0%        36.0%          30.9%          31.0%        31.0%        31.0%          31.0%
        0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%         0.0%         0.0%           0.0%
   3.2%         3.2%           1.6%           3.2%         1.6%         1.6%           1.6%
        0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%         0.0%         0.0%           0.0%
    529          479            472            531          524          475            522
   15.6         14.2           14.0           15.7         15.5         14.0           15.4
           0            0              0              0            0            0              0
    2.0          1.9            1.9            7.5          7.5          7.5            2.0
   10.3          9.3           11.5           10.4         12.8         11.6           12.7
     28           25             27             34           36           33             30
        0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%         0.0%         0.0%           0.0%
        0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%         0.0%         0.0%           0.0%
        0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%         0.0%         0.0%           0.0%
  61.9%        85.3%          62.2%           0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          47.0%
  48.8%        64.1%          63.7%          48.2%        48.0%        62.7%          48.5%
        0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%         0.0%         0.0%           0.0%
    5.5          5.6            5.6            0.0          0.0          0.0            5.5
   13.7         10.3           12.6           19.8         22.5         18.7           16.4
   19.2         15.9           18.3           19.8         22.5         18.7           21.9
        0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%         0.0%         0.0%           0.0%
    7.5          7.5            7.5            7.5          7.5          7.5            7.5
    7.9          4.2            4.3            8.1          8.2          4.5            8.0
   15.4         11.7           11.8           15.6         15.7         12.0           15.5
        0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%         0.0%         0.0%           0.0%
    2.0          1.9            1.9            7.5          7.5          7.5            2.0
        0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%         0.0%         0.0%           0.0%
   13.0         13.2           13.2            7.5          7.5          7.5           13.0
   21.6         14.5           16.9           27.9         30.6         23.1           24.3
   34.6         27.7           30.1           35.4         38.2         30.6           37.4
        0.0%         0.0%           0.0%           0.0%         0.0%         0.0%           0.0%
  0.0          8.0          8.0          0.0           0.0           8.0           0.0
  0.0          7.9          7.9          0.0           0.0           7.9           0.0
     0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%
 50.2         49.7         51.9         51.1          53.7          52.5          52.8
  0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0           0.0           0.0           0.0
 23%          15%          17%          29%           32%           24%           26%
     0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%
  25           24           24            94            94            94           25
  69           71           71             0             0             0           69
  94           94           94            94            94            94           94
 188          188          188          188           188           188           188
 188          188          188          188           188           188           188
     0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%
 125          125          125          125           125           125           125
     0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%
  63           63           63            63            63            63           63
     0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%
 188          188          188          188           188           188           188
     0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%
     0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%
   6            9           10           -63           -67           -50           19


      0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%
 26           14           18            68            68            47           41
      0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%
 79           52           42            91            81            54           91
      0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%
  0           18           18            0             0             25            0
     0.0%          0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%        0.0%
  111         93           88            97            82            76           151
     0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
   803.6%       803.6%       803.6%       803.6%       803.6%         803.6%       803.6%
     0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
     0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
     0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
     0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
10,238        7,629       10,457       10,882        14,140        10,852        13,481
 8,872        6,611        9,062        9,430        12,253         9,404        11,682
15,424       11,739       11,807       15,602        15,678        11,987        15,500
24,296       18,349       20,869       25,032        27,931        21,391        27,182
     0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
     0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
        0            0            0            0             0             0             0
     0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
     0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
   6            9           10           -63          -67            -50           19
   0            0            0            0            13             5             9
   6           9          10         -63         -81         -55          10
  26          14          18          68          68          47          41
  79          52          42          91          81          54          91
 105          66          60         159         149         101         132
   0          18          18           0           0          25           0
 111          93          88          97          82          76         151
   8           8           8           8           8           8           8
 386         386         386         386         386         386         386
  77          77          77          77          77          77          77
     0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
     0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 190         172         146         165         163         147         162
 164         148         146         165         163         147         162
   0           0          24           0          26          24          26
  25          23          23           0           0           0          25
   0           0           0         110         110         110           0
 149         135         133          92          63          47         147
 529         479         472         531         524         475         522
     0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
     0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
  2.0         1.9         1.9         7.5         7.5         7.5         2.0
  0.0         0.0         1.4         0.0         0.0         0.0         1.2
  0.0         0.9         0.7         0.4         0.0         0.9         0.0
  5.5         4.7         3.5        -0.4         0.0        -0.9         4.3
  7.5         7.5         7.5         7.5         7.5         7.5         7.5
 13.7        10.3        12.6        19.8        22.5        18.7        16.4
  7.9         4.2         4.3         8.1         8.2         4.5         8.0
     0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 10.3         9.3        11.5        10.4        12.8        11.6        12.7
     0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
188.0       188.0       188.0       188.0       188.0       188.0       188.0
     0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
     0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 19.2        15.9        18.3        19.8        22.5        18.7        21.9
 15.4        11.7        11.8        15.6        15.7        12.0        15.5
     0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
     0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 34.6        27.7        30.1        35.4        38.2        30.6        37.4
Any 3 (again)



                ZELF+NZE ZELF+NZE ZELF+H2+B NZEB+H2+
                B+H2     B+BCCS   CCS       BCCS




                  ZELB +    ZELB + Net ZELB +    H2/CCS +
                 H2/CCS + Zero Bio + H2/CCS + Net Zero Bio
                Net Zero Bio Bio/CCS   Bio/CCS   + Bio/CCS
                       0.0%       0.0%      0.0%       0.0%
                  31.0%       31.0%     31.0%      31.0%

                   0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         5.0%
                   4.9%        20.7%        22.9%        23.2%
                  28.2%        17.3%        15.1%         9.8%
                  36.0%        31.0%        31.0%        31.0%
                        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
                   3.2%         3.2%         3.2%         1.6%
                        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
                    479          531          481          475
                   14.2         15.7         14.2         14.0
                           0            0            0            0
                    1.9          7.5          7.5          7.5
                    9.3         10.4          9.4         11.6
                     25           34           31           33
                        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
                        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
                        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
                  85.3%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
                  64.1%        48.2%        63.1%        62.7%
                        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
                    5.6          0.0          0.0          0.0
                   10.3         19.8         16.3         18.7
                   15.9         19.8         16.3         18.7
                        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
                    7.5          7.5          7.5          7.5
                    4.2          8.1          4.4          4.5
                   11.7         15.6         11.9         12.0
                        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
                    1.9          7.5          7.5          7.5
                        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
                   13.2          7.5          7.5          7.5
                   14.5         27.9         20.7         23.1
                   27.7         35.4         28.2         30.6
                        0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
  8.0          0.0           8.0           8.0
  7.9          0.0           7.9           7.9
     0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
 49.7         51.1          50.3          52.5
  0.0          0.0           0.0           0.0
 15%          29%           22%           24%
     0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
     0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
  24            94            94            94
  71             0             0             0
  94            94            94            94
 188          188           188           188
 188          188           188           188
     0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
     0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
 125          125           125           125
     0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
  63            63            63            63
     0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
 188          188           188           188
     0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
     0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
     0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
   5           -82           -63           -69


      0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
  7            68            47            47
      0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
 41            80            53            43
      0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
 16            0             25            25
      0.0%          0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
 70            66            62            46
     0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
   803.6%       803.6%        803.6%        803.6%
     0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
     0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
     0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
     0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
 7,629       10,882         8,009        10,852
 6,611        9,430         6,940         9,404
11,739       15,602        11,919        11,987
18,349       25,032        18,859        21,391
     0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
     0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
        0            0             0             0
     0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
     0.0%         0.0%          0.0%          0.0%
   5           -82           -63           -69
  15            0             0             0
      -10         -82         -63         -69
        7          68          47          47
       41          80          53          43
       48         148         100          90
       16           0          25          25
       70          66          62          46
        8           8           8           8
      386         386         386         386
77     77          77          77          77
          0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
          0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
      172         165         149         147
      148         165         149         147
        0           0           0          24
       23           0           0           0
        0         110         110         110
      135          92          73          47
      479         531         481         475
          0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
          0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
       1.9         7.5         7.5         7.5
       0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0
       0.0         0.0         0.7         0.0
       5.6         0.0        -0.7         0.0
       7.5         7.5         7.5         7.5
      10.3        19.8        16.3        18.7
       4.2         8.1         4.4         4.5
          0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
       9.3        10.4         9.4        11.6
          0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
     188.0       188.0       188.0       188.0
          0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
          0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
      15.9        19.8        16.3        18.7
      11.7        15.6        11.9        12.0
          0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
          0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
      27.7        35.4        28.2        30.6
                                     2005         2010          2015        2020        2030
Electricity (GWh/yr)
BAU Case C                         271,264      288,139       306,063    325,102     366,808
Realistic                          271,264      291,180       312,559    335,508     386,583

Nuclear

Existing gen cap (GW)                   4.5         4.5           4.5        4.5         4.5
New gen cap (GW)                          0           0             0          0        13.0
Total gen cap (GW)                     4.5          4.5           4.5        4.5        17.5
Annual elec (GWh/yr)                35,478       35,478        35,478     35,478     138,276
Fraction of total elec                13%          12%           11%        11%         36%

Fossil/CCS
Assumed 2050 mix                                 0.00%         1.12%       2.09%      9.06%
Assumed CF                   n/a                    0.8           0.8         0.8        0.8
Assumed capture effic        n/a                    0.9           0.9         0.9        0.9
Net capacity (GW)                        0            0           0.5          1.0        5.0
Output (GWh/yr)                                       0         3,504       7,008     35,040
Parasitic load (%)                                 30%           25%         20%        15%
Equiv. nameplate capacity                           0.0            0.6         1.2        5.8
Coal

- emissions rate (kgCO2/MWh) n/a                   800           800         800         800
- CO2 captured (MtCO2/yr)    n/a                    0.0           2.5         5.0        25.2
- Cumulative CO2 captured,
assuming piecewise linear
(MtCO2)                                             0.0           6.3        25.2        177
- CO2 emissions (MtCO2/yr)   n/a                    0.0           0.3         0.6         2.8
Natural gas

- emissions rate (kgCO2/MWh) n/a                   360           360         360         360
- CO2 captured (MtCO2/yr)    n/a                    0.0           1.1         2.3        11.4
- Cumulative CO2 captured,
assuming piecewise linear
(MtCO2)                                               0           2.8        11.4        79.5
- CO2 emissions (MtCO2/yr)   n/a                    0.0           0.1         0.3         1.3
                                                                 65.1

                                                                     2050 capac CEC upper
Renewables                   Share of total Supply (GWh) CF          (GW)        limit (GW)
Wind - onshore                        30%        153,973         40%        43.9          150
Wind - offshore                       10%          51,324        40%        14.6          293
CSP                                 20.0%        102,648         27%        43.4         1061

PV - central                       10.00%        51,324         27%          21.7      17000
PV - distrib                       10.00%        51,324         27%          21.7          78
Biomass                                5%        25,662         85%           3.4        10.7
Hydro                                  5%        25,662         30%           9.8          24
Geo                                   10%        51,324         90%           6.5          25
Total                                100%       513,242         35%         165.1
CA land area:
Capacities - GW                        2009     2012     2020     2030
Wind - total                               3      5.9       11     26.9
CSP                                      0.4        1      7.3     19.3
PV                                       0.4      0.8      3.2     16.6
Biomass                                  0.9      0.4        1      1.8
Hydro                                     10       10       10      9.9
Geothermal                               0.9      1.3      2.4      3.8
Total                                   15.6     19.4     34.9     78.3

Liquid and gaseous fuels
(Ggge/yr)
BAU Case C
Industrial heat               2,340    2,527    2,729    2,948    3,439
Transportation
- Light-duty vehicles        14,655   15,583   16,570   17,620   19,922
- Heavy-duty vehicles         4,000    4,313    4,650    5,013    5,828
- Aviation                    2,280    2,421    2,571    2,731    3,079
- Bus/rail                      746      783      822      864      952
- Marine                        360      377      394      412      451
Liquid fuel subtotal         24,381   26,004   27,737   29,587   33,671
Natural gas (Ggge/yr)        12,332   13,273   14,286   15,376   17,812
Total                        36,713   39,278   42,023   44,963   51,483

Realistic
Industrial heat               2,340    2,356    2,372    2,388    2,420
Transportation
- Light-duty vehicles        14,655   13,197   11,883   10,701    8,677
- Heavy-duty vehicles         4,000    4,048    4,097    4,146    4,247
- Aviation                    2,280    2,226    2,174    2,123    2,024
- Bus/rail                      746        0        0        0        0
- Marine                        360      356      352      348      340
Liquid fuel subtotal         24,381   22,183   20,878   19,706   17,708
Natural gas (Ggge/yr)        12,332   11,571   10,857   10,187    8,969
Total                        36,713   33,754   31,735   29,893   26,677
Fraction of Realistic Case
realized

Industrial heat                  0        0      0.05      0.2      0.4
Transportation                   0        0      0.05      0.2      0.4
- Light-duty vehicles            0        0      0.05      0.2      0.4
- Heavy-duty vehicles            0        0      0.05      0.2      0.4
- Aviation                       0        0      0.05      0.2      0.4
- Bus/rail                       0        0      0.05      0.2      0.4
- Marine                         0        0      0.05      0.2      0.4
Natural gas                      0        0      0.05      0.2      0.4
Realistic final demand
Industrial heat               2,340    2,527    2,711    2,836    3,031
Transportation
- Light-duty vehicles        14,655   15,583   16,336   16,236   15,424
- Heavy-duty vehicles         4,000    4,313    4,622    4,840    5,195
- Aviation                    2,280    2,421    2,551    2,609    2,657
- Bus/rail                              746             783          781         691        571
- Marine                                360             377          392         399        406
Liquid fuel subtotal                 24,381          26,004       27,394      27,611     27,286
Natural gas (Ggge/yr)                12,332          13,273       14,115      14,338     14,275
Total                                36,713          39,278       41,509      41,949     41,561
Biofuels
CA biofuels (Mgge/yr)                       0            0           300         600       2,000
Imported biofuels (Mgge/yr)                 0            0           350       2,002       3,204
Total biofuels (Mgge/yr)                    0            0           650       2,602       5,204
Fraction of demand                         0%           0%           2%          6%         13%


Number of CA plants                         0             0            6          12         40
Per plant capacity (Mgge/yr)               50            50           50          50         50
Cost (low) $bn                             $0            $0           $2          $4        $12
Cost (high) $bn                            $0            $0           $3          $6        $20

Biomass/CCS
Plant size (GW)                                                       0.5         0.5        0.5
Number of plants                                                        1           3          8
Total capacity (GW)                        0.0                        0.5         1.5        4.0
Output (GWh/yr)                              0            0        3,504      10,512     28,032
Fraction of demand                           0            0        1.12%       3.13%      7.25%
CO2 emissions rate
(gCO2/kWh)                                                          -622        -622       -622

CO2 storage rate (gCO2/kWh)                                          691         691        691

Net CO2 emissions (MtCO2/yr)                                        -2.18       -6.54     -17.44
Storage requirements
(MtCO2/yr)                                                           2.42       7.27       19.38




Hydrogen
Yang scenario:
Conventional                   Vehicles          27,600,000    29,500,000 31,000,000 30,200,000
PHEV+EV                        Vehicles                9,000      105,000    394,000 3,036,000
Hydrogen                       Vehicles                    0         2,000    65,000 1,500,000
Frac hybrid of conv                                    0.009         0.039      0.109       0.47
Frac EV of electric                                     0.05          0.05      0.115       0.33
Fleet avg mpg                                             21            23         27         41
Gasoline                       Mgge/yr                13017         12417      11084       7159
Electricity                    Mgge/yr                     3             6         24        217
Hydrogen                       Mgge/yr                     0             1         16        279
Number of H2 stations                     5000             0             0         13        300
Mgge/yr per station                                                   2.50       1.23       0.93
Industrial                      GgH2/yr                  0           1          19         335
LDV (scaled f/ above)           GgH2/yr                  0           2          26         448
HDV (scaled f/ above)           GgH2/yr                  0           0           1          18
Bus (accel LDV sched)           GgH2/yr                  0           3          44         248
Total                           GgH2/yr                  0           5          90       1,049

Onsite NG                       GgH2/yr                               5         90        798
Mgge/yr per station                                                 0.5        0.5         0.5
Onsite stations                                                      11        180       1,596
Coal/CCS or electricity         GgH2/yr                               0          0         251
Coal/CCS plants                            440 Mgge/yr                0          0           1
Electricity                     GWh/yr                                0          0      12,341
Increase in electric capacity
from E1                                                          0.00%      0.00%       3.19%
CO2 storage from coal/CCS       MtCO2/yr                            0.0        0.0         2.5
Increase in CO2 storage
capacity from E3 (coal)                                          0.00%      0.00%       9.96%

Stress test calculations
Case BAU-E demand                  1,161,136 GWh/yr

                                                                       2050 capac CEC upper
Renewables                      Share of total Supply (GWh) CF         (GW)        limit (GW)
Wind - onshore                         30.0%        348,341        0.4        99.4          150
Wind - offshore                        10.0%        116,114        0.4        33.1          293
CSP                                    17.0%        197,393       0.27        83.5         1061


PV - central                           8.5%          98,697       0.27        41.7       17000
PV - distrib                           8.5%          98,697       0.27        41.7           78
Biomass                                6.0%          69,668       0.85         9.4         10.7
Hydro                                  5.0%          58,057        0.3        22.1           24
Geo                                   15.0%         174,170        0.9        22.1           25
Total                                100.0%       1,161,136                  353.0


Case B electrolysis demand         1,939,503 GWh/yr

                                                                       2050 capac CEC upper
Renewables                      Share of total Supply (GWh) CF         (GW)        limit (GW)
Wind - onshore                             0.3      581,851        0.4       166.1          150
Wind - offshore                            0.1      193,950        0.4        55.4          293
CSP                                      0.21       407,296       0.27       172.2         1061

PV - central                                0.1     193,950       0.27        82.0       17000
PV - distrib                                0.1     193,950       0.27        82.0           78
Biomass                                  0.045       87,278       0.85        11.7         10.7
Hydro                                    0.035       67,883        0.3        25.8           24
Geo                                       0.11      213,345        0.9        27.1           25
Total   1   1,939,503   622.2
      2040       2050 Notes

   413,864    466,956 Exponential rate =                                    1.21%
   445,433    513,242 Exponential rate =                                    1.43%


                       Life extension to 60 years means will
       4.5           0 still be operating past 2040
      26.1        43.6
      30.6       43.6
   241,074    343,872 Capacity factor =                                         0.9
      54%        67%


   31.47%        0.67
       0.8         0.8
       0.9         0.9
      20.0       49.1 Average build rate =                                 13.86%
   140,160    343,872
      10%        10%
      22.0       54.0


       800        800
      100.9     247.6


        807     2,550
       11.2      27.5


       360        360
       45.4     111.4


       363      1,147
        5.0      12.4

            Land area
Fraction    km2 per
consumed GW           Land area (km2)                          Fract of CA area:   Direct to total area
     29.29%     252.6                                 11,102                 2.62%                    2%
      5.00%     252.6                                  3,701                 0.87%                    2%
      4.09%      36.2                                  1,571                 0.37%                  100%

     0.13%       87.3                                   1,894             0.45%                   100%
    27.82%       87.3                                   1,894             0.45%                     0%
    32.21%     10,000                                  34,464             8.13%                     0%
    40.69%      142.0                                   1,386             0.33%                   100%
    26.04%       59.1                                     385             0.09%                   100%
                                                       56,396            13.30%
                                                      423970 Without biomass:                    5.17%
  2040      2050 Linear build 2020-2050 (GW/yr)       Linear 2009-2050    Exponential 2009-2050
   42.7      58.6                                1.59                1.36               7.52%
   31.4      43.4                                1.20                1.05              12.11%
   30.0      43.4                                1.34                1.05              12.11%
    2.6       3.4                                0.08                0.06               3.33%
    9.8       9.8                               -0.01               -0.01              -0.06%
    5.1       6.5                                0.14                0.14               4.94%
 121.7     165.1                                 4.34                3.65               5.92%




 4,011     4,679 Exponential rate =                               1.55%

22,526    25,469   Exponential rate =                             1.24%
 6,774     7,875   Exponential rate =                             1.52%
 3,473     3,916   Exponential rate =                             1.21%
 1,049     1,157   Exponential rate =                             0.98%
   493       540   Exponential rate =                             0.90%
38,327    43,637
20,634    23,902   Exponential rate =                             1.48%
58,961    67,539


 2,453     2,487 Exponential rate =                               0.14%

 7,036     5,705   Exponential rate =                            -2.07%
 4,350     4,456   Exponential rate =                             0.24%
 1,930     1,841   Exponential rate =                            -0.47%
     0         0   Exponential rate =                          -100.00%
   332       324   Exponential rate =                            -0.24%
16,101    14,812
 7,896     6,952   Exponential rate =                             -1.27%
23,998    21,764


                Assume roughly sigmoidal growth
  0.75        1 curve
  0.75        1 Copy for all sectors
  0.75        1
  0.75        1
  0.75        1
  0.75        1
  0.75        1
  0.75        1

 2,843     2,487

10,908     5,705
 4,956     4,456
 2,316     1,841
       262         0
       372       324
    21,658    14,812
    11,081     6,952
    32,738    21,764

     5,000     5,490 Revised 3/7/11
     4,757     7,520
     9,757    13,010 Median case
      30%       60%

                     Heather Youngs suggestion 1/4/11,
      100    109.792 modified to reflect CA biofuel capacity
       50         50
      $30        $33
      $50        $55


       0.5        0.5
        15         31
       7.5      15.4
   52,560    107,759
   11.80%       21% Reflects main biomass/CCS case

     -622       -622

      691        691

    -32.70     -67.05

     36.34     74.50




 18200000 5,200,000
 8,998,000 ########
11,000,000 ########
       0.77      0.97
       0.53      0.71
         62        81
      2933        590
        625       736
      1579      2636
     2,200     4,860
       0.72      0.54
                        Tamper down growth in 2040 to keep
      1,000       3,162 % of CO2 storage under control
      2,535       4,232
        102         170
      1,000         415
      4,637       7,979 Assume production in 2020 =                           0.05
                        Exponential in between =                           16.13%
      798          798 Onsite NG capacity (final) =                            0.1
       0.5          0.5
     1,596        1,596
     3,839        7,181
         9           16
   188,628      352,845 Electrolysis rate =                                  0.678

    42.35%      68.75%
       38.4        71.8 Stored CO2 per H2 (g/g)                                  10 (guess)

    38.04%      29.00%



            Land area
Fraction    km2 per                                           Direct land area
consumed GW           Land area (km2)                         (km2)
     66.27%    252.64                               25,116                     502
     11.31%    252.64                                8,372                     167
      7.87%     36.19                                3,021                   3,021


     0.25%     87.27                                 3,642                  3,642 Number of homes:
    53.50%     87.27                                 3,642                      0         18,190,000
    87.44% 10,000.00                                93,565                      0
    92.05%    141.97                                 3,136                  3,136
    88.37%     59.14                                 1,306                  1,306
                                                   141,799                 11,775             2.78%
              CA land
              area:                                 423970 Fraction:                            33.45%
                                                           Without biomass:                      11.4%
            Land area
Fraction    km2 per                                           Direct land area
consumed GW           Land area (km2)                         (km2)
   110.70%     252.64                               41,952                     839
     18.89%    252.64                               13,984                     280
     16.23%     36.19                                6,233                   6,233
                                                                                   Fraction of roofs (if
     0.48%        87.27                               7,156                  7,156 half residential)
   105.13%        87.27                               7,156                  7,156                   75%
   109.55% ?                                                                     0
   107.63%       141.97                               3,667                  3,667
   108.24%        59.14                               1,600                  1,600
          81,750             26,932   6.35%
CA land
area:     423970 Fraction:            19.28%
Direct land area
(km2)                  Fract of CA area:
                 222                 0.05%
                  74                 0.02%
               1,571                 0.37%
                                          Fraction of roofs (if Fraction of roofs (if Fraction of roofs (if
               1,894                0.45% half residential)     half commercial):     half residential)
                   0                0.00%         470.2604795          408.3989528                      20%
                   0                0.00%
               1,386                0.33%
                 385                0.09%
               5,532                1.30%
ntial 2009-2050
                                         Commercial roof     Commercial roof
                   Fraction of roofs (if 2005 potential      2050 potential      Fraction of roofs (if
Average size (kW) half residential)      (GW):               (GW):               half commercial):
                 3                  38%                 37.6                62.8                  33%




Fraction of roofs (if
half commercial):
                 65%
Fraction of roofs (if
half commercial):
                 17%
                                                Historical and BAU Emissions
                            1,000

                             900
GHG Emissions (MtCO2e/yr)




                             800

                             700

                             600

                             500                                                   Energy emissions
                                                                                   Non-energy emissions
                             400
                                                                                   2020 Target
                             300                                                   2050 Target
                             200

                             100

                               0
                                    1990                2005   2020         2050

                                           Historical                 BAU
                                  GHG Reductions with a Single Strategy
                            900
GHG Emissions (MtCO2e/yr)


                            800
                            700
                            600
                            500
                            400
                            300                                           Carbon fuels
                            200                                           Electricity
                            100                                           2050 Target
                              0
                                        GHG Reductions with Two Strategies
                            900
                                                             EFF = efficiency
                            800                              ELE = electrification
                                                             LCE = low-carbon electricity
GHG Emissions (MtCO2e/yr)




                            700                              LCF = low-carbon fuels

                            600

                            500
                                                                                            Carbon fuels
                            400                                                             Electricity
                                                                                            2050 Target
                            300

                            200

                            100

                              0
                                  BAU      LCE+LCFELE+LCFELE+LCEEFF+ELEEFF+LCFEFF+LCE
                                  GHG Reductions with Three Strategies
                            900
                                                     EFF = efficiency
                            800                      ELE = electrification
GHG Emissions (MtCO2e/yr)



                                                     LCE = low-carbon electricity
                            700                      LCF = low-carbon fuels
                            600

                            500

                            400                                                     Carbon fuels
                            300                                                     Electricity
                                                                                    2050 Target
                            200

                            100

                              0
                                        Getting to 60% below 1990 level
                            900

                            800
GHG Emissions (MtCO2e/yr)




                            700

                            600

                            500

                            400                                                                      Carbon fuels
                                                                                                     Electricity
                            300
                                                                                                     2050 Target
                            200

                            100

                              0
                                        + Efficiency           +        + Low-Carb      + Low-Carb
                                                        Electrification     Elec           Fuels

                                  BAU                  Sequential addition of actions
                                           Getting to 60% below 1990 level
                            900
GHG Emissions (MtCO2e/yr)

                                                               EFF = efficiency
                            800
                                                               ELE = electrification
                            700                                LCE = low-carbon electricity
                            600                                LCF = low-carbon fuels
                            500
                            400
                            300
                                                                                                            Carbon fuels
                            200
                                                                                                            Electricity
                            100
                                                                                                            2050 Target
                              0
                                                 LCE+LCF
                                         ELE




                                                                        ELE+LCE+LCF
                                  2050

                                         LCF




                                                 EFF+LCF
                                         LCE




                                                 EFF+LCE
                                         EFF




                                                                        EFF+ELE+LCF
                                                 ELE+LCF




                                                                        EFF+ELE+LCE
                                                 ELE+LCE
                                                 EFF+ELE




                                                                        EFF+LCE+LCF



                                                                                          EFF+ELE+LCE+LCF
                                  BAU    Any 1         Any 2               Any 3         All 4
                                                  Getting to 60% below 1990 level
                            900
GHG Emissions (MtCO2e/yr)


                            800                                        EFF = efficiency
                            700                                        ELE = electrification
                            600                                        LCE = low-carbon electricity
                                                                       LCF = low-carbon fuels
                            500
                            400
                            300
                            200
                            100                                                                                     Carbon fuels
                              0
                                                                                                                    Electricity
                                                  LCF
                                                  LCE

                                                  EFF


                                                              ELE+LCF
                                                              ELE+LCE
                                                              LCE+LCF
                                                  ELE




                                                              EFF+ELE




                                                                                  EFF+LCE+LCF
                                                              EFF+LCE
                                  2005




                                                              EFF+LCF




                                                                                                  EFF+ELE+LCE+LCF
                                  1990


                                           2050




                                                                                  ELE+LCE+LCF
                                                                                  EFF+ELE+LCF

                                                                                  EFF+ELE+LCE
                                                                                                                    2050 Target




                                  Histo-   BAU      Any 1            Any 2           Any 3       All 4
                                   rical
                                                            2050 Portrait
                                  GHG Impact of Zero-Emissions Load Balancing
                                                    (ZELB)
                            250
GHG Emissions (MtCO2e/yr)




                            200



                            150
                                                                                         100% Nat. Gas
                                                                                         100% ZELB
                            100
                                                                                         2050 Target


                             50



                              0
                                   Median      Nuclear Nat. Gas/CCSCoal/CCS Renewables
                                        Impact of Biomass GHG Intensity and Supply
                            250
GHG Emissions (MtCO2e/yr)



                            200



                            150



                            100
                                      Biomass GHG Intensity
                                      Relative to Fossil:
                             50          50%
                                         20% (Median)
                                         0%
                              0
                                  0            5         10        15         20    25   30
                                                         Biomass Supply (bgge/yr)
                  GHG Emissions (MtCO2e/yr)




                                                                                        100
                                                                                              150




                      -50
                                                0
                                                                             50
                                                                                                    200




          -100
                 Median



           100% CCS

       No Fossil/CCS

                       ZELB

Net Zero GHG Biomass

     Behavior Change

        Biomass/CCS

            Hydrogen
                                                                                                          Getting to 80%: Single Strategies




 High Biomass Supply
                                                                             Hydrogen


                                                Electricity


                  2050 Target
                                                              Carbon fuels


                                Net emissions
                                   Getting to 80%: Example of Multiple Strategies
                            200

                            150
GHG Emissions (MtCO2e/yr)




                            100

                             50                                                                                                                 Hydrogen
                                                                                                                                                Carbon fuels
                              0                                                                                                                 Electricity
                                                             + Hydrogen
                                    Median




                                                                                   + Behavior Change




                                                                                                                               + Net Zero GHG
                                             + Biomass/CCS




                                                                                                       + High Biomass Supply
                                                                          + ZELB
                                                                                                                                                Net emissions
                             -50                                                                                                                2050 Target




                                                                                                                                  Biomass
                            -100

                            -150

                            -200
                            GHG Emissions (MtCO2e/yr)




                   -50
                                            0
                                                                         50
                                                                                    100
                                                                                          150
                                                                                                200

    100% Renewables




Net Zero GHG Biomass

     Behavior Change

          100% ZELB

        Biomass/CCS

           Hydrogen
                                                                                                      Getting to 80%: Single Strategies




 High Biomass Supply
                                                                         Hydrogen


                                            Electricity


              2050 Target
                                                          Carbon fuels


                            Net emissions
               GHG Emissions (MtCO2e/yr)




                                                                                  50
                                                                                             100
                                                                                                   150




-200
                -100
                           -50
                                                     0
                                                                                                         200




        -150
       100% Renewables




           + Biomass/CCS

       + Behavior Change

          + Net Zero GHG
             Biomass

               + 100% ZELB

               + Hydrogen

+ High Biomass Supply
                                                                                                               Getting to 80%: Example of Multiple Strategies




                                                                                  Hydrogen


                                                     Electricity


                       2050 Target
                                                                   Carbon fuels


                                     Net emissions
Peak load


Electricity           2005                       2050 Portrait
Peak ratio            Data    Minimum demand   Baseline demand   Maximum demand


Residential           2.17         2.17             2.17              2.17
Commercial            1.78         1.78             1.78              1.78
Industrial            1.45         1.45             1.45              1.45
Agricultural          1.89         1.90             1.89              1.89
Other                 1.31         1.31             1.31              1.31
average
Light duty vehicles

Heavy-duty vehicles
Airplanes
Bus
Rail-passenger
Rail-freight
Marine

Coincident:non-
coincident peak
ratio                 0.90         0.91             0.91              0.90

Peak load, GW
Residential           21.03       13.81            28.25             47.97
Commercial            19.55       18.64             30.5             42.04
Industrial             8.91        5.57            16.58             34.26
Agricultural            4.6        3.11              6.6             10.16
Other                  2.23        3.23             3.95              5.05
Subtotal              56.32       44.36            85.88             139.48

Light duty vehicles

Heavy-duty vehicles
Airplanes
Bus
Rail-passenger
Rail-freight
Marine
Transport subtotal    0.00         0.00             0.00              0.00

Non-coincident peak
(straight sum)        56.32       44.36             85.88            139.48
Coincident peak       50.95       40.58             77.92            126.01
Peak ratio (peak
GW / avg. GW)         1.65         1.64             1.62              1.60
     Case
    CF, HD                                    ED
  Max. demand         Min. demand        Max. demand

 Business-As-Usual Business-As-Usual Business-As-Usual
(same as maximum
      demand)                        (conventional uses)   (heating portion)   (total)
        2.17             2.17               2.17                 1.00           1.60
        1.78             1.78               1.78                 1.00           1.59
        1.45             1.45               1.45                 1.00           1.12
        1.89             1.89               1.89                 1.00           1.80
        1.31             1.31               1.31                 1.00           1.28
        1.80             1.80                                 (vehicles)
                                                                 1.00

                                                                 1.00

                                                                 1.00
                                                                 1.00
                                                                 1.00




      0.90                0.90               0.90                1.00           0.95


      33.86               3.39              33.86               14.73           48.59
      32.90               3.29              32.90                6.01           38.91
      18.41               1.84              18.41               33.92           52.33
       6.59               0.66               6.59                0.41            7.01
       3.95               0.40               3.95                0.32            4.27
      95.72               9.57              95.72               55.39          151.11

                                                                21.72          21.72

                                                                 4.86           4.86
                                                                 0.00           0.00
                                                                 0.53           0.53
                                                                 0.17           0.17
                                                                 0.14           0.14
                                                                 0.00           0.00
      0.00                0.00                                  27.41          27.41


      95.72               9.57              95.72               82.79          178.51
      86.48               8.65              86.48               82.79          169.27

      1.62               1.62                                                   1.28
                          ML
  Min. demand         Max. demand                                         Min. demand

Business-As-Usual   Business-As-Usual                                   Business-As-Usual

      (total)       (conventional uses)   (heating portion)   (total)        (total)
       1.60                2.17                 1.00                          2.17
       1.59                1.78                 1.00                          1.78
       1.12                1.45                 1.00                          1.45
       1.80                1.89                 1.00                          1.89
       1.28                1.31                 1.00                          1.31
    (vehicles)                               (vehicles)
       1.00                                     1.00                          1.00

      1.00                                      1.00                          1.00
      0.00                                      0.00                          0.00
      1.00                                      1.00                          1.00
      1.00                                      1.00                          1.00
      1.00                                      1.00                          1.00
      0.00                 0.00                 0.00                          0.00



      0.95                 0.90                 0.90                          0.90


       6.79                56.28                                              36.01
       4.67                40.38                                              24.97
       8.35                18.41                                              17.98
       0.76                 7.14                                               4.34
       0.46                 4.25                                               2.58
      21.03               126.46                                              85.88

      18.95                0.00                                               8.34

       4.04                0.00                                                0.99
       0.00                0.00                                                0.00
       0.53                0.00                                                0.53
       0.17                0.00                                                0.17
       0.12                0.00                                                0.12
       0.00                0.00                                                0.00
      23.80                0.00                                               10.15


      44.84               126.46                                              96.03
      42.51               114.25                                              86.75

      1.08                 1.46                                               1.51

				
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