Urban Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Systems Dynamic by x5S1Ng60


									Urban Vulnerability to Climate Change:
A Systems Dynamic Analysis

January 12, 2009

Sharon L. Harlan, PhD   sharon.harlan@asu.edu
Wade Bannister, PhD     wade.bannister@asu.edu
Project Overview
•   National Science Foundation grant no. GEO-08161608

•   September 1, 2008 – February 29, 2012

•   Coupled Human – Natural Systems research

•   Partnership with researchers at UC Riverside, NASA Johnson Space Center
    Image Analysis Laboratory, and ASU including:
    •   School of Human Evolution and Social Change
    •   Global Institute of Sustainability
    •   School of Computing and Informatics
    •   Department of Applied Biological Sciences
Extreme Heat and Health: Increasing Global Concerns
•   Heat is the leading cause of death among weather-related fatalities in the US
    1995-2004 (about 400 a year).

•   Heat waves occur in temperate cities as well as in desert cities all over the

•   Cities are warming faster than the rest of the planet due to the urban heat
    island effect.

•   Global climate models agree that the intensity, duration, and frequency of heat
    waves will increase significantly over the next century.
Scientific Challenges: Research Objectives
1.   Explain the heterogeneous spatial and temporal character of complex urban
     heat riskscapes as an emergent phenomenon of interacting processes that
     involve residential selection, changing landscapes, the urban heat island
     (UHI), and the forcing of global climate change.

2.   Assess the current vulnerability of people in different neighborhood
     microclimates to chronic and episodic heat-related health hazards.

3.   Build, implement, and visualize a spatial system dynamics model to test
     hypotheses about complex interactions between human manipulation of the
     environment and induced climate response and to forecast alternative future
     scenarios of heat-related health vulnerability.
Impact Challenges: Educational Objectives
1.   Develop innovative programs for teaching and learning about climate with
     active participation by low-income, minority residents in understanding and
     mitigating the impacts of extreme heat in their neighborhoods.

2.   Make results accessible to the policy community in order to promote better
     decision-making on informed early-warning systems, heat-illness prevention,
     and community design and adaptation.
Specific Scientific Challenge #2
Assess the current vulnerability of people in different
  neighborhood microclimates to chronic and episodic heat-
  related health hazards.

Combine sophisticated health, climate, and environmental
  data with social theory and modeling tools to investigate
  human vulnerability to deadly heat exposure
Research Questions
•   What impact does the development and intensification of urban
    heat islands have on human health and comfort?

•   Are certain population groups more vulnerable to the health
    effects of extreme temperature?

•   Why are people vulnerable to heat and what could mitigate the
    undesirable consequences?
Neighborhood Conditions, 2003 Heat Wave (July 12-16), 5:00 pm
    Neighborhood             Mean (sd)         Mean (sd)              Increase in HTCI   Pct Summer 2003
                             Air Temp          Human Thermal          During HW          Hours
                                               Comfort Index (HTCI)                      => 200 HTCI
    Historic Anglo Phoenix        40.2 (3.1)         186 (35)                 28               4.2
    North Desert Ranch            43.3 (2.7)         215 (37)                 49               5.9

    West Side Suburban            43.7 (2.7)         220 (37)                 45               11.0

    South Mountain                44.4 (2.6)         226 (35)                 50               15.9
    North Central                 44.5 (3.1)         226 (44)                 48               18.4
    Historic Mexican              45.6 (2.9)         245 (37)                 49               14.8
    New Tract Development         45.5 (3.1)         238 (44)                 45               22.2

    Black Canyon Freeway          47.7 (3.4)         259 (42)                 62               19.8
    Mean: All                     44.4 (2.3)         227 (28)                 47               14.0
    Difference: highest -            7.5                73                    44               18.0
    ANOVA                        F=22.98***         F=5.94***
Correlations of Residents’ Characteristics & HTCI in 8 Phoenix Neighborhoods

 •    Exposure to heat stress is positively correlated with the percent of poor and
     ethnic minority residents.
     ( r = 0.64**, 0.69**)

 •    Exposure is negatively correlated with place-specific ecological variables:
     vegetation abundance and open spaces. (r = -0.54*, -0.65**)

 •    Exposure is negatively correlated with amount of social and material coping
     resources: social networks, air conditioning, quality of roofing materials,
     backyard swimming pools.
     (r = -0.85**, -0.71*, -0.36, -0.83***)
Variable Temperatures in the Phoenix Metro Area

  Simulated Air Temperature, Weather Research and Forecast model   Source: Darren Ruddell & Susanne Grossman-Clarke,
  1km spatial resolution, July 17 2005 at 5 pm                     Arizona State University
Risk and Exposure to Extreme Heat in Phoenix, AZ
Hours of Exposure to Extreme Heat by Neighborhood July 15-19, 2005

                                                       Meehl and Tebaldi definition
                                                       of heat event (2004)
                                                          • 45°C (113°F)
                                                          • Range: 0-24 hours out of
                                                            4 days (96 hr)
                                                          • Mean: 12.65
                                                          • SD: 7.9

                                                       Source: Darren Ruddell & Susanne
                                                       Grossman-Clarke, Arizona State University
Role of AZHQ
•   Estimating and Predicting Heat-Related Health Outcomes by Neighborhood
•   AZHQ is a unique data resource
    •   Complete data -- Identifying heat-related cases
    •   Integrated data -- Identifying risk factors of patients
•   Working with other researchers to provide de-identified data for analyses
    •   De-identification essential due to HIPAA privacy concerns
    •   Provide summary and aggregate data files to be constructed in accordance with research
        design specifications
    •   Provide data expertise to help find optimal data solutions for research questions
Goals of CHIR’s Involvement
•   Discover health effects that are correlated with heat exposure
•   Provide objective statistical evidence of temperature/health relationship
•   Identify patient risk factors that may exacerbate effects of heat
•   Provide meaningful information to benefit the health of the community
CHIR Work so far
•   In conjunction with researchers in the School of Human Evolution and Social
    •   Mortality Data
    •   Working to identify whether patterns can be detected among both heat and non-heat
        related deaths in relationship to climate conditions
•   In conjunction with CHiR’s Expert Physician Panel, identifying health
    conditions that may be correlated with high temperatures
    •   “Expected” health events such as heat stroke, dehydration, etc
    •   “Unexpected” health events which may be less known
    •   Combining medical literature, clinical knowledge, and data discovery
Next Steps
•   Establish relationship between extreme heat and specific adverse health
•   Develop models to better understand effects of patient risk factors
•   Better understand local geographical differences in health effects within urban
    heat islands

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