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Thailand Power Report Q1 2011

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Thailand Power Report Q1 2011

Description:    Thailand Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power
                associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and
                competitive intelligence on Thailand's power industry.

                The new Thailand Power Report forecasts that the country will account for 1.88% of Asia Pacific
                regionalpower generation by 2015, with a potential growing supply shortfall after system losses and
                powerindustry usage. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2010 is 7,724 terawatt
                hours (TWh),representing an increase of 4.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in
                regional generationto 9,786TWh by 2015, representing growth of 26.7% in 2010-2015.

                In 2010, Asia Pacific thermal power generation will have totalled an estimated 6,149TWh,
                accounting for79.6% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is
                7,589TWh, implying 23.4%growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 77.5%.
                This is thanks largely toenvironmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and
                nuclear generation.Thailand’s thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 140TWh, or
                2.28% of the regionaltotal. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 2.06% of regional
                thermal generation.
                Oil is the dominant fuel in Thailand, accounting for an estimated 44.5% of primary energy demand
                (PED)in 2010, followed by gas at 36.1%, coal at 14.6% and hydro-electricity with a 1.9% share of
                PED.

                Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,496mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015,
                representing20.6% growth from the estimated 2010 level. Thailand’s estimated 2010 market share
                of 2.29% is set tofall to 2.20% by 2015. An estimated 8TWh of hydro-electric demand in 2010 is
                forecast to reach 10TWhby 2015, with its share of the Asia Pacific hydro market easing from an
                estimated 0.81% to 0.77% overthe period. While there is no existing or near-term nuclear
                capacity, tentative plans exist for theconstruction of reactors, but at present there is no clear
                government policy.

                Thailand now shares seventh place, with Malaysia, Pakistan and Indonesia, in BMI’s updated
                PowerBusiness Environment Rating, thanks largely to its energy demand, plus moderate scores in
                most othercategories. Pakistan and Indonesia both have the potential to pull away, while the
                presence of thePhilippines below also poses a threat during the next few quarters.

                BMI is now forecasting Thai real GDP growth averaging 4.62% per annum between 2010 and 2015,
                withthe 2011 assumption being an increase of 3.60%. Population is expected to expand from
                68.1mn to69.9mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita
                forecast to increaseby 50% and 16% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to
                increase from anestimated 146TWh in 2010 to 174TWh by the end of the forecast period. After
                power industry usage andtransmission losses, there is scope for supply shortfall of 7TWh by 2015,
                assuming 3.9% average annualgrowth in electricity generation between 2010 and 2015.

                Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Thai electricity generation of 37.7%,
                which isbelow average for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 16.5% in the 2015-2020 period,
                down from18.2% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to decrease from 21.4% in 2010-2015 to
                16.3%, representing41.2% for the entire forecast period. Hydro generation is expected to rise by
                50% between 2010 and2020, with thermal power generation forecast to increase by 28% over the
                same period. The consumptionof renewables should at least double between 2010 and 2020. More
                detailed long-term BMI powerforecasts can be found later in this report.



Contents:       Executive Summary

                SWOT Analysis
Industry Overview
Global
Table: Global Summary, 2008-2015
Asia Pacific Region
Table: Asia Pacific Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh)
Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh)
Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2008-2015 (mn toe)
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption, 2008-2015 (bcm) .
Table: Asia Pacific Coal Consumption, 2008-2015 (mn toe)
Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2008-2015 (TWh)

Market Overview
Primary Energy Demand
Power Generation
Power Consumption
Regulation And Competition
Pricing
Power Transmission

Business Environment
Asia Pacific Power Business Environment Ratings
Table: Asia Regional Power Business Environment Ratings
Thailand’s Power Rating
Rewards
Risks
Legal Framework
Infrastructure
Labour Force
Foreign Investment Policy
Tax Regime
Security Risk

Industry Forecast Scenario
Thailand’s Power Outlook
Generation
Gas-Fired
Oil-Fired
Coal-Fired
Nuclear Energy
Hydro-Electric
Renewable Energy
Power Costs
Transmission
Table: Thailand’s Thermal Power Sector. 2008-2015
Table: Thailand’s Non-Thermal Power Sector, 2008-2015
Table: Thailand’s Power Costs, 2008-2015
Assumptions And Methodology
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Power Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
Thailand - Economic Activity; 2008-2015

Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Global Snapshot
Table: Global Summary, 2013-2020
Regional Outlook
Table: Asia Pacific Electricity Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh)
Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2013-2020 (mn toe)
Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh)
Table: Asia Pacific Hydro-Electric Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh)
Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh)
Thailand Overview
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
            Competitive Landscape
            Electricity Generating Authority Of Thailand (EGAT)
            Independent Power (Thailand)
            Glow Energy
            CLP/EGCO
            Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding Public Company Limited (RATCH)

            BMI Methodology
            How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
            Power Industry
            Cross Checks
            Sources



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