1201_israel_poll_telhami_presentation

Document Sample
1201_israel_poll_telhami_presentation Powered By Docstoc
					Anwar Sadat Chair for Peace and Development
           University of Maryland

               2011
Public Opinion Polls of Jewish and
      Arab Citizens of Israel
   Poll of Jewish citizens conducted with Dahaf Institute, Nov. 10-16, 2011
                  Sample size: 510, Margin of error +/- 4.4%

Poll of Arab/Palestinian citizens conducted with JZ Analytics, Nov. 13-20, 2011
                  Sample size: 500, Margin of error +/- 4.5%

     Professor Shibley Telhami, Principal Investigator
          Special thanks to the Carnegie Corporation of New York

    Mike Lebson, Evan Lewis and Abe Medoff assisted in preparation of this study
Jewish Citizens of Israel
                           Arab Awakening
                            Thinking about the Arab Spring, is it mostly:


Ordinary people seeking dignity,
                                                       46%
   freedom and a better life




     Opposition parties or sects
                                                 34%
          seeking power




       Foreign powers trying to
                                         12%
       stir trouble in the region



                                    0%     10%    20%        30%   40%   50%   60%   70%   80%
                             Arab Awakening
                Which of the following is closer to your view about the impact of the
                                       Arab Spring on Israel?



Mostly for the better        15%




       No difference           21%




Mostly for the worse                       51%



                        0%     10%   20%         30%   40%   50%     60%      70%       80%
                             Arab Awakening
                    If the Arab Spring does in fact lead to more democracy in the Arab
                                          world, would that be:



Better for Israel                       44%




  No difference                  28%




Worse for Israel            22%



                    0%     10%         20%    30%     40%      50%      60%      70%     80%
    United States & the Middle East
How would you describe your views of President Barack Obama of the United
                                States?
           2011                            2010




Positive      54%                           41%




Negative    39%                               51%
      United States & the Middle East
How would you describe your attitudes toward the Obama administration policy in
                           the Middle East so far?
               2011



     Hopeful          22%




      Neither               35%




  Discouraged                 39%
                    Global Perceptions
     Which world leader (outside your own country) do you admire most?
                       2011                     2010


Angela Merkel                  12%                     9%



Bill Clinton                  10%                      8%


Winston Churchill         7%



George Bush               7%



Barack Obama             6%                         5%
                           Arab-Israeli Conflict
                 How would you describe the current status of Arabs in Israel?


     There is full
equality between Arab                      33%
  and Jewish citizens



There is legal equality,
 but institutional and                             52%
societal discrimination




      It is an apartheid
                                7%
          relationship



                           0%        10%     20%     30%   40%   50%   60%       70%   80%
                      Arab-Israeli Conflict
                Which of the following is more important in your view:



       Jewishness of Israel          27%




Both are equally important                   47%




       Democracy of Israel          26%



                              0%   10%     20%     30%   40%   50%       60%   70%   80%
                     Arab-Israeli Conflict
      Which of the following statements is closest to your view about the
       prospects of lasting peace between Israel and the Palestinians?
                           2011                     2010


Will happen in the next
five years                   6%                      8%




Inevitable, but it will
                                    42%                      43%
take more time




Don’t believe it will ever
                                      49%                     47%
happen
                     Arab-Israeli Conflict
              Which of the following statements is closer to your view:
                                     2011                2010

I am prepared for a just and
comprehensive peace with the                      43%              40%
Arabs based on the 1967 borders,
with agreed modifications


Even if all Arab states accept and
recognize Israel, I still oppose             31%                27%
withdrawing from territories
occupied in 1967




Neither                                     24%                 30%
                     Arab-Israeli Conflict
      Which of the following is closer to your position on the demand that the
                    Palestinians accept Israel as a Jewish state:
                              2011                      2010

I support it and demand as a
precondition for negotiations          39%                    36%
or settlement freeze



I support it but would accept
as part of a final peace               40%                     39%
agreement




I do not support this demand     17%                       23%
                    Arab-Israeli Conflict
      Given that 25% of Israelis are non-Jews, which of the following is closer to
     your position on defining Israel as “the homeland of the Jewish people and
                                     all its citizens”:
                      2011                              2010




I support it                          71%                               71%




I reject it                 25%                               27%
                   Arab-Israeli Conflict
       Should or shouldn’t Israel do more than it does today to promote
   comprehensive peace with the Arabs based on the 1967 borders with agreed
      modifications and the establishment of a peaceful Palestinian state?
                   2011                             2010




Israel should                    66%                            62%




Israel shouldn’t          31%                             35%
                       Arab-Israeli Conflict
        What do you believe is the likely outcome if prospects of a two-state
                solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict collapse:
                                 2011                 2010

Status quo will continue with
                                          47%                   42%
little change


State of intense conflict for
                                        34%                     42%
years to come


Palestinians will eventually
surrender to Israeli power &      9%                   4%
integrate into other societies

One-state solution in which
Israelis and Palestinians are    4%                    4%
equal
             Iran & Nuclear Weapons*




* The section on Iran’s nuclear weapons is part of a joint project of the Sadat Chair at
the University of Maryland and the Program on International Policy Attitudes and its
director, Dr. Steven Kull
               Iran & Nuclear Weapons
                There is talk of a possible Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Do
                                                    you:




Support such an attack                  43%




Oppose such an attack                   41%
                Iran & Nuclear Weapons
                 Assuming that these are the only two options, which do you think
                              would be a better situation for Israel:




 Both Israel and Iran
                           19%
have nuclear weapons




Neither Israel nor Iran
                                          65%
have nuclear weapons
                Iran & Nuclear Weapons
                    How likely do you think it is that Iran will
                     eventually develop nuclear weapons?
                2011




  Likely                                90%




Unlikely   6%
           Iran & Nuclear Weapons
 So in total, do you support or oppose the idea of having a nuclear weapons-
  free zone in the Middle East that would include both Islamic countries and
                                    Israel?
             2011




Support                    64%




 Object         31%
                                 Identity
               Which of the following is your most important identity?
                       2011                         2010

Jewish                                53%                          49%




Israeli                         37%                             39%




Citizen of the world    4%                             5%



My family’s
country of origin      2%                             4%
Arab/Palestinian
Citizens of Israel
                Iran & Nuclear Weapons
                  There is international pressure on Iran to curtail its
                       nuclear program. What is your opinion?
                        5 Arab Countries             Arab/Palestinian Israelis



Iran has the right to
                                           64%                         53%
its nuclear program




Iran should be
pressured to stop its          25%                               32%
nuclear program
              Iran & Nuclear Weapons
         Name TWO countries that you think pose the biggest threat to you.
                   Arab/Palestinian Israelis      5 Arab Countries

Israel                     22                                             71


United States                      43                                59


Iran                            36                      18


United Kingdom                27                       11


France                   13                        6


China                3                            3
                Iran & Nuclear Weapons
    There is talk of a possible Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Do you:
                         Jewish Israelis               Arab/Palestinian Israelis



Support such an attack              43%                4%




Oppose such an attack               41%                                      68%
                   Global Perceptions
       Which world leader (outside your own country) do you admire most?
                         Arab/Palestinian Israelis   5 Arab Countries
Recep Erdogan                      22                             22

Yasser Arafat                      22                N/A

Hassan Nasrallah               8                             13

Barack Obama                  7                       4

Fidel Castro               6                          3

Hugo Chavez                5                          5

Saddam Hussein             4                             6

Hillary Clinton            4                         2

Nicolas Sarkozy            4                          5

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad       3                                  13
                                   Identity
              Which of the following is your most important identity?
              Arab/Palestinian Israelis Israeli Jews             5 Arab Countries

Citizen of your
                        12                             37                     33
country

Religious identity
(Muslim or Jew)               27                            53             31



Arab                          28                                         26


Citizen of the
world                                     4                         9



Palestinian                  23
                 Arab-Israeli Conflict
Would you accept the transfer of some Arab/Palestinian towns
currently in Israel to a new Palestinian state, when established?
           Yes                                              No


2011      17                           78




2010             36                          58


                                                          Sadat Chair
              Arab-Israeli Conflict
Your opinion of possible recruitment of Israeli Arab/Palestinian
      citizens into non-military national service program:
 Reject under any    Accept if Arabs          Accept only after
 circumstances       granted equal rights     Palestinian state
                     to Jews                  established

2011                 52                        38              9




2010                47                        38             11

                                                          Sadat Chair
             Arab-Israeli Conflict
 How do you feel about Palestinian refugees’ right to return?

Not too       Important but a         Important and cannot be
important     compromise should       compromised in any way
              be found


2011 5                  57                        34




2010    11         28                      57

                                                        Sadat Chair
                     Arab-Israeli Conflict
           How would you describe the current status of Arabs in Israel?
                           Jewish Israelis          Arab/Palestinian Israelis

     There is full
equality between Arab                 33%           3%
  and Jewish citizens



There is legal equality,
 but institutional and                       52%                    57%
societal discrimination



     It is an apartheid
                             7%                               36%
         relationship
                           Arab Awakening
   Looking at the international reaction to the events in the Arab world in the past few
    months, which TWO countries do you believe played the most constructive role?
                5 Arab Countries                        Arab/Palestinian Israelis
      Turkey                          50%                            32%

      France                    30%                                 29%

United States              24%                                             45%

       China              20%                                 15%

      Britain        11%                                       21%

    Germany         10%                                        19%

      Russia        9%                                          24%

       Japan        8%                                   3%
                        Arab Awakening
 In retrospect, do you believe that the international intervention in Libya was:
                        Arab/Palestinian Israelis   5 Arab Countries




The right thing to do                  35                      35




The wrong thing to do                       44                      46
                       Arab Awakening
When you watch events in Syria, are your sympathies mostly with the government or
                    the rebels seeking government change?
                 Arab/Palestinian Israelis        5 Arab Countries



  Rebels                                 75                                86




  Government           17                            9
                       Arab Awakening
When you watch events in Yemen, are your sympathies mostly with the government
                  or the rebels seeking government change?
                 Arab/Palestinian Israelis        5 Arab Countries



 Rebels                                      88                          89




 Government        6                                5
                      Arab Awakening
   When you watch events in Bahrain, are your sympathies mostly with the
          government or the rebels seeking government change?
              Arab/Palestinian Israelis        5 Arab Countries



Rebels                                    85                      64




Government        8                                   24
                    Arab Awakening
    When you reflect on the Arab Spring, are you more optimistic or more
       pessimistic than before about the future of the Arab world?
              Arab/Palestinian Israelis        5 Arab Countries


More optimistic                    50                          55




Feeling no change             30                      23




More pessimistic         19                          16
                          Arab Awakening
        As you look ahead toward the Presidential elections in Egypt, which of the
          following leaders would you like the next President to look like most?
                     Arab/Palestinian Israelis         5 Arab Countries
Erdogan                                   33                     31

Mandela                              16                      9

Obama                            10                      4

Sarkozy                          8                       5

Nasrallah                       7                            9

Putin                        5                           2

Ahmadinejad                  3                               8

King Abdullah (KSA)         2                                9

Chavez                      2                                7

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Tags:
Stats:
views:186
posted:12/1/2011
language:English
pages:39