Naive
Year Enrollment Error |Error| SD
1 320 N MA ES
2 323 320 3 3 Year 6 343 348 340
3 319 323 -4 4 MAD 13 14 11
4 353 319 34 34 SD 20 18 16
5 343 353 -10 10 Max 34 32 33
6 343 6 13 20
MAD SD
Moving Average (N=2)
Year Enrollment Error |Error| SD
1 320
2 323
3 319 322 -3 3
4 353 321 32 32
5 343 336 7 7
6 348 12 14 18
MAD SD
Exponential Smoothing
Year Enrollment Error |Error| SD
1 320
2 323 320 3 3
3 319 322 -3 3
4 353 320 33 33
5 343 337 6 6
6 340 10 11 16
alpha 0.50 MAD SD
Linear Regression
Year Enrollment Error |Error| SD 360
1 320 316 4 4 355
y = 7.6x + 308.8
2 323 324 -1 1 350 R² = 0.6047
3 319 332 -13 13 345
4 353 339 14 14 340
335
5 343 347 -4 4
330
6 354 0 7 10 325
320
MAD SD 315
310
0 2 4 6 8
LR
354
7
10
14
8