Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Year 1 78 50 55 89
Year 2 80 49 57 91
Year 3 93 52 62 94
Year 4 95 53 64 98
Average 86.5 51 59.5 93
aver q sales 72.5 72.5 72.5 72.5
Seasonal index 1.193103 0.703448 0.82069 1.282759
Deseasonalized 79.62 75.34 77.98 76.39
Naïve 98
Moving avg 81
Deseasonal data Naïve 76.39
Data moving 77.19
Questions
1 Calculate the seasonal index for each quarter.
2 Deseasonalize the data for year 4.
3 Calculate the quarter 1 for the next year using both the naïve forecast and the moving average for both the norm
The actual sales for quarter 1 of year 5= 97.
4 Calculate the percentage forecasting error for all four forecasts performed in question #3. Which forecast was th
5 Calculate the new seasonal index for all quarters and deseasonalize year 4 q4 and year 5 q1 data.
6 Calculate the quarter 2 for the next year using both the naïve forecast and the moving average for both the norm
The actual sales for quarter 2 of year 5= 37.
7 Calculate the percentage forecasting error for all four forecasts performed in question #6. Which forecast was th
moving average for both the normal data and then with the deseasonalized data.
estion #3. Which forecast was the best?
d year 5 q1 data.
moving average for both the normal data and then with the deseasonalized data.
estion #6. Which forecast was the best?