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Wallace Garden Supply _ES_

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					Wallace Garden Supply
Forecasting                  Exponential smoothing


Input Data                             Forecast Error Analysis
                                                        Absolute Squared Absolute
  Period      Actual value             Forecast Error    error    error  % error
Month 1                 10               10.000
Month 2                 12               10.000 2.000      2.000   4.000 16.67%
Month 3                 16               10.200 5.800      5.800 33.640 36.25%
Month 4                 13               10.780 2.220      2.220   4.928 17.08%
Month 5                 17               11.002 5.998      5.998 35.976 35.28%
Month 6                 19               11.602 7.398      7.398 54.733 38.94%
Month 7                 15               12.342 2.658      2.658   7.067 17.72%
Month 8                 20               12.607 7.393      7.393 54.650 36.96%
Month 9                 22               13.347 8.653      8.653 74.879 39.33%
Month 10                19               14.212 4.788      4.788 22.925 25.20%
Month 11                21               14.691 6.309      6.309 39.806 30.04%
Month 12                19               15.322 3.678      3.678 13.529 19.36%
                                        Average            5.172 31.467 28.44%
   Alpha               0.1                                 MAD      MSE    MAPE

Next period        15.690
                                 Exponential smoothing


        25




        20




        15
Value




        10




         5




         0
             1   2   3   4   5           6           7              8   9   10   11   12
                                              Time

                                      Actual value       Forecast
Wallace Garden Supply
Forecasting                  Exponential smoothing


Input Data                             Forecast Error Analysis
                                                        Absolute Squared Absolute
  Period      Actual value             Forecast Error    error    error  % error
Month 1                 10               10.000
Month 2                 12               10.000 2.000      2.000   4.000 16.67%
Month 3                 16               10.838 5.162      5.162 26.649 32.26%
Month 4                 13               13.000 0.000      0.000   0.000   0.00%
Month 5                 17               13.000 4.000      4.000 16.000 23.53%
Month 6                 19               14.675 4.325      4.325 18.702 22.76%
Month 7                 15               16.487 -1.487     1.487   2.211   9.91%
Month 8                 20               15.864 4.136      4.136 17.106 20.68%
Month 9                 22               17.596 4.404      4.404 19.391 20.02%
Month 10                19               19.441 -0.441     0.441   0.194   2.32%
Month 11                21               19.256 1.744      1.744   3.041   8.30%
Month 12                19               19.987 -0.987     0.987   0.973   5.19%
                                        Average            2.608   9.842 14.70%
   Alpha            0.419                                  MAD      MSE    MAPE

Next period        19.573

				
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posted:11/30/2011
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