U.S. Defense Policy -- Creative Retirement #4, April 11, 2008.
This session has three parts – each of which deserves a week’s discussion.
We have only a half hour each.
Part I. is philosophic discussion of the author’s world view.
Part II seeks a kinder, gentler use of military power.
Part III recommends the author’s spending for conventional forces,- handout last week..
My interests – run a website on WW2 Pacific – so my examples often come from
that study. I also run a WW on Terror website that tracks US, particularly Navy, today.
So I tend to follow developments more than the general public. I see no assured answers
to anything. The world is going to hell and us along with it.
My conclusion, the author is often “full of it”. However, the issues need
discussion.
The Policy Options at the end of the chapter are designed to elicit support for the author’s
position. However, the Questions that follow are valid !!!
I would love to discuss each point in the text from these notes -- 6 pages worth.
But, the Questions need to be addressed and “they” set the agenda. So let me spend 15
minutes to remind the class what the book says, with a few snide remarks added, and then
we can get into the Questions for discussion.
I . Philosophy.
A. Most serious threats from Terrorism, Rogue states, Weapons of Mass Destruction
1. Hawks
preemptive action
act on our own
instill free market democracy
2. Wimps
use US power only with Int’l support
Can defeat, but not remove threats
Talk to other nations
3. Doves
address global poverty, cool global warming, end isolationism
participate in diplomatic and economic cooperation
retain strongest military in coalitions.
B. Bush Strategy – he says, involves
Self defense, anticipatory action
Author says, Analysts see conflict in conducting war and promoting democracy
Should extension of democracy be a goal of US security policy?
Worthy discussion for many hours.
[Options Presented:]
1. Preventive War -- Proactive
a. Attacks become easy and devastating
b. Needs preemptive, unilateral action
c. Respond to perils – expensive
d. “Terrorists come from countries that suffer form political repression, economic
incompetence, and a broad lack of respect for the rule of law.”
e. “Democracy and capitalism do not spread inexorably on their own.”
f. “US needs to assume a leadership role in spreading and accelerating the growth
of free-market democracies.”
[True or false? After discussion: Attach a Basic English classroom to each
$1MM in aid. Understand west; participate in western culture, business]
2. Deterrence and Containment
a. Terrorist nukes are not a threat, because we can bring down that country. [?]
b. Iraq War I [1990] was because we did not clearly state we would fight over
Kuwait.
c. Unilateral action will encourage others to preemptive aggression
d. Spreading democracy will overextend US into an Empire.
e. Cause backlash among nations.
f. Not overarching strategic goals. (Vietnam was unnecessary.)
g. Must narrow goal to creating stability. Not utopian adventures.
h. Soldiers are not social workers
i. Eradicate terrorists -- no suggestion how?
j. Robust containment renders outlaw regimes impotent. Contain who?
3. Cooperative World Order
a. Give US values by working with multilateral partners and institutions.
[Each entity has its own interests –When Japan invaded the western Pacific, UK
only concern was protection of Singapore and India -- forget US Philippines or Dutch
Indies. The Dutch concern was to defend their Java. US had little say, having lost our
navy at Pearl Harbor. Aussies saved Egypt for England and the US sent its newly
drafted troops to replace Aussie troops at home. Australia have been in our voting block
with US for 60 years, tighter even than Canada and England with us. Seems there is
something to learn here. Lafayette we are here!?]
b. Share data [Yes, England shared every bit of scientific secrets they had –
radar, nuclear research, jet aircraft, code breaking. And, Rosenbergs shared with Russia.
Oops.]
c. Fund of everything that can reduce spreading of evil in the world.
d. Take the lead in economic, social and health problems.
[A soldier can go into infantry, artillery, or nurse corps?]
e. “Little sense to try to maintain military superiority” ?!?
f. “(it is) …socio-economic programs that keep the nation strong”
[War is a come as you are party. See earlier handout. ]
II . Role of the U.S. Military. A kinder, gentler army.
A. Counterterrorism: Author has no recommendations other than “emphasize”. [ Is not this the
task of MI-5, CIA? Should we establish a ‘ “24”-like CTU’, counter terrorism unit, manned by
Jack Bauers? ]
B. Humanitarian Crises – Indonesia. “Responding to these sorts of disasters will be a core
mission of the U.S. military.” [Ohh, wow!]
1. Global First Responder -- Global Cooling -- Droughts
2. Regional instability. World ambulance and hospital, and restoration therapist.
[Chicago fire, San Francisco earthquake, Galveston hurricane destroyed cities that
were rebuilt without Federal aid. In our age, the government established Emergency
Management to come in after a disaster and make loans to speed rebuilding. Then got
into the habit of providing emergency housing. Then the incompetent administration in
New Orleans “expected” preemptive care, and total, effortless restoration of their homes,
gifts of cash, hotel accommodations, and then complained about it. The same will occur
if we participate in worldwide. Instead of being appreciative of assistance, we will
receive complain about not having received more and being slow about it. An endless
expense.]
[Note: Indonesia was so appreciative that they demanded that US amphibious fleet
bringing aid to move back beyond their 20 limit, over the horizon, out of sight. Aid could
not be seen as coming from US military. World opinion may have changed after the aid
was received, but initial response was not encouraging. But, we have given massive aid
in the past and Indonesia didn’t seem to understand. Did we waste the effort?]
Initial hesitancy to respond – (a) it takes time to purchase and receive needed
supplies, load a ship, and sail at 20 miles an hour to a disaster site. Meanwhile a
reporter flies from LAX at 600 mph, fully equipped with his laptop and on landing says
“Where is the US military aid?” (b) We have positioned ships to reduce the one month
travel time from the US. These are loaded with tanks, artillery and bombs, not civilian
supplies. Pre-positioned provision of disaster supplies might be considered by the UN –
imagine the political demands upon such a policy.
C. Humanitarian Assistance.
1 . Military Spending needed for responding to humanitarian assistance.
[The military budget for defense and attack will be reduced because the Army is spending
to provide drought assistance to any/every country. This is a way to hide social spending
in the unconscionably large military budget]
[I want a military of shooters, not social workers. When a group of insurgents is firing at
me, I don’t want a part of the team that enlisted for love of humanity to hesitate about
killing the poor, deprived attackers. ]
2. Global Warming – [There are ice ages and warm periods. Ego suggests man has equal
importance with the sun upon the earth. Political waste of your tax monies, no matter
what Prince Charles and Al Gore say. Conservation, clean up the atmosphere – Yes.
Try to change the earth’s temperature – No. When the world is ready to move the
peoples of flooded Bangladesh to re-emergently warm Greenland, then we can take an
interest. What does this topic have to do with Military Policy discussion ???.]
D. Peacekeeping.
1. “If military power changes a regime … it will have to engage in nation-building.”
[Note: German and Japan had a government change; they rebuilt themselves under US
administration, not US direction. European governments and business leadership did not
change; they were less effective.]
[Historically, defeated enemies were destroyed so that no brick was left upon another and
the land was sown with salt. Not rebuilt and restored to power – a modern US invention.]
[Politics: Plan was to turn Germany and Japan into pastoral/agricultural countries of no
future threat. But, cold war in Europe; military base against Red China changed that.]
[Marshall Plan 1948 to 1952. Note lack of Congressional interest until Cold War started.]
2. “Operating early and preventively can help stem developing crises.”
[Pre-emptive use of US military. Humm?]
[Remember before there were federal emergency funds? An earthquake, hurricane, or
forest fire could qualify for federal emergency aid. Now, every snow storm has counties
clamoring for aid. Similarly and internationally, every 3rd world ambassador will call for US
aid.]
3. “… require a substantial number of troops on the ground for a long time.”
[Bonsnia : Still there; Clinton promised out by Christmas, 1995.]
[Korea since 1953.]
E. Counterinsurgency
1. Planning – Yes, but, plans end when the first bullet is fired.
2. Difficult – sectarian, repressed issues released.
3. Iraq – US military changed the regime in days, but …. US planners expected Shi’a to
welcome American aid. Instead, factions assassinated the US tame Ayatollah and
factions romped and Americans didn’t know who was who.
Must our army train “nation building” teams for every nation in the world –
studying language, culture, sectarianism, geography, weather, et al.]
4. Troops ; an occupation with insurgency requires 25 troops per 1,000 people. [25,000
per million pop.] [A division is about 10,000 men, 2-1/2 divisions. Iraq or Afghanistan each
properly requires 75 divisions. I can only find the names of 9 active Army divisions. (There are
a few Marine Expeditionary units.)]
5. Viable political process and political leadership. [ Iraq, Afghanistan? Ha, ha, ha.]
F. State-Based Threats
1. Protect states that play a constructive role. [Dictatorships are effective.]
2. Threatening with overwhelming force works on dictators. [but not fanatics]
3. Need conventional forces for blockades, etc.
[Vietnam ended when US mined Haiphong harbor. Until then politics prevented
sinking of Russian and Chinese supply ships.]
4. Don’t trust the “military-industrial complex.”
5. Don’t start an arms race. [Risk of using a too strong army.] However, we broke
Russia by causing them to overspend and they could not keep up and went
bankrupt/collapsed without shots being fired.
6. Author is silent on R&D in this section and the next.
Unmanned weapons, driverless trucks.
ABC – the bomb, smallpox, nerve gases
Electronic vulnerability: virus, neutron bomb, destroy nodes/lines.
VIDEO Raises Two Major Questions.
1. What about the draft vs. large standing army vs. National Guard?
Discussion.
...
And in addition, draft will:
Instill realism to our soft life.
Civilize street rappers.
Get illegals to run back home.
2. Too much spending on Technology?
a. Consider WW2.
Radar vs. eyes
Proximity Fuse vs. bullets
Aircraft carriers vs. battleships
B-17, B-24 bombers, vs. converted passenger liners
M-1 semi-automatic rifle vs. Springfield bolt action.
US F4F Wildcat at 315 mph vs. Jap Zero 330 mph.
US P-40 Warhawk at 340 mph vs. Messerschmitt Bf 109 at 386 mph.
Japanese torpedo was twice as fast, twice as much range, more accurate with a
heavier explosive charge than ours that failed to run straight or detonate.
Atom bomb vs. two weeks of 500 B-29 bombing raids. (20,000 man-sorties)
Atom bomb vs. half million US casualties on invasion.
Contrast these examples vs. any number of 20-year old draftees with a rifle.
b. Consider IRAQ.
Soldiers are targets for roadside bombs.
1. MRAP – mine resistant, ambush protected truck to replace armored Humvee
which replaced multipurpose Humvee, which replaced Jeeps.
2. UAV, Unmanned aero vehicle - pilot sits in Missouri to observe enemy and attack.
3. Autonomous vehicle, unmanned self driven trucks – takes the driver and co-driver out
of resupply truck convoys. Desert and Urban challenges 2005-07.
U.S. Defense Policy Creative Retirement Class #4, April 11, 2008.
This session has three parts – each of which deserves a week’s discussion.
We have only a half hour to spend on each part. Part three is probably of least interest to
the general public. To allow us to spend our discussion time on overall policy of Parts I and II,
this is a summary of your local coordinator’s notes on PART III -- which is the author’s ideas on a
proper defense department budget.
(a) Your moderator is not sure this belongs in the Great Decisions discussion, so it is
separated herein to satisfy those few interested in the hardware side of Defense Policy.
(b) Your moderator follows military, particularly naval, affairs and inserts his own thoughts
in lieu of group discussion for those who are interested in budgets and hardware.
Key : Normal text is summary of our book.
[Added factual information.]
Your moderator’s opinions. Excellent, but still an option.
III. Towards a 21st-Century U.S. Force.
Mobile, flexible, robust, and delicate.
Work seamlessly between services, agencies, and partners.
We used to have the capability to fight in 3 theaters at once. Then it was reduced to two
with the peace dividend on the end of the Cold War. Now we see we are stretched at one.
A. Ground Forces
May require expansion. [?] Prep for future. [Training takes manpower away from
current duties. You want your best men as trainers and your best men in the field.]
a. Less dependent on National Guard [ ! ]
b. Less dependent on private contractors – [Blackwater, drivers, infrastructure.
Equals or exceeds the number of military forces in Iraq !!! ]
c. Longer leaves between tours. [Yea !]
B. Defense Budget
a. US spend biggest dollars, but not highest per GDP [at 3.5%. 27 nations larger]
b. Concentrates on weapons, not manpower. Afford one or the other. Author prefers
men. Some of us would rather risk hardware.
New manned and unmanned systems – go slow [?!?] Local coordinator disagrees.
[Autonomous ground vehicles: driverless trucks to take drivers out of convoys subjected
to roadside bombs are available today, but manufacturers are urgently building MRAP.
Field testing is going on with armed robots – gun mounted on a radio controlled tracked
vehicle, with increasing autonomy so that one soldier can control multiple robots. Army
is afraid of public opinion of letting robots fire guns.]
c. Better to buildup light forces. [?]. Hopefully no war with Russia or China where
heavy forces – tanks, artillery, whole armies – will be required.
C. U.S. Marines
a. Stop Osprey. [ He calls it a helicopter; it is medium lift aircraft with capability for
vertical takeoff and landing. Pictures are all (I searched internet) of it landing or taking off.]
Only a people mover – yea, right, better than a parachute. [Osprey is twice as fast, goes
twice as far, with half again the load than the recommended helicopter, and is a 25-year newer
design.]
b. Buy CH-53 helicopter. [Is used mostly for carrying equipment: Jelly Green Giant of
Vietnam fame.]
V-22 Osprey CH-53 Stallion
Range 1,000 miles 450 miles
Speed 315 mph 140
Carry 15,000 (7.5 Ton) 10,000 (5 Ton)
Introduced 1989 (25yr newer) 1964
[News: the Marine Corp won this point. March 28 awarded a $10.4 billion contract for
Delivery of 167 Osprey – 26 for Air Force Special Operations and 141 to USMC.]
Silent on MRAP (Mine Resistant, Ambush Protected) armored truck to replace armored
Humvee. Marine trial, roadside bomb deaths dropped to zero in test area.]
D . U.S. Navy
1. Don’t prepare for last war. [whoopy-do] [No more sea battles a’la WWI.]
a.. Sea Basing. [This exists. Navy has 17 amphibious assault ships that look identical to
a WW2 aircraft carrier that is really a floating marine base with an airfield on top.]
2. Coastal, not blue water. [Two are building; Navy wants 65. The “littoral combat
ship”, LCS, is a new concept: five times larger than a World War II PT boat and 1/5
the size of a current destroyer. A crane loads one of three modules to change the
function of this ship –- mine sweeper, coastal warfare (surface), troop escort (anti-
submarine). A core of sailors run the ship ; specialist crew comes with the change of
hardware module.]
3. Replacement aircraft carriers. [Invaluable in peaceful waters ! But, each missile hit
reduces 9% of Navy.]
4. Slow down delivery of Virginia class sub, build only enough to keep industry alive.
[1/yr vs. 2/yr. Three have been commissioned for active duty so far.]
[Virginia class is to replace existing torpedo attack subs (SSN, 1976, 32-years old)
and ballistic missile subs (SSBN, 1984, 24-years). 18 SSN have already retired, 4 oldest
SSBN have been converted to other duty. Subs are multipurpose – attack ships, land,
ballistic missiles, defend fleets, reconn, rescue, special troop carrier.]
6. Cancel destroyers. Send carriers and troop convoys out without anti-sub, anti-aircraft
defensive screen ?!? [Cruisers and destroyers today use the same hull ; there was a big
difference in WW2. Now the difference is mission, not size.] Our cruisers are retiring
now, 5 in last three years ; we’ll start retiring current destroyers in 8 years. The new
ship will do the work of both.
7. Not ready until 2015 anyway. When cruisers are gone and we are retiring current
destroyers – Idiot!!! This is why the timetable. We need them designed now.
[Tricks forced on Navy :
1. Take armaments off ships and transfer to MilSeaTransService with civilian crews;
change designation from USS to USNS. Need a ship? Go to union hall to get a crew, release
them on return.
-- At Battle of Midway, key battle of WW2 Pacific, union crew would not unload on a
Sunday (battle started on Wed)
-- At Guadalcanal, unions would only work a 5-day week, Wed-Sun, to get weekend
premium pay.
-- Marines had to take time from preparing for battle to playing stevedore.
2. Redesign of shipboard functions to use more technology, less crew. [Good, except no
backup in combat such as salvaging the ship and fighting at the same time with half the
crew killed or wounded.]
E . U.S. Air Force
1. Refueling tanker aircraft. [News: Yes, Air Force went AirBus because US air
industry is too small, not competition.]
2. C-17 Globemaster to move cargo including rough airfields.
[Scheduled for production shutdown 2009. No alternatives.]
3. F-35 Lightning II. (2012) Build 2,458 quickly. [This surprises me. Risky technology,
vertical takeoff/landing. I agree we need them, but also need to advance into
unmanned fighter and unmanned ground attack aircraft on which he is silent.
None in service ; first military pilot flew a prototype 10 weeks ago. First
deployment 2013 as model A is not vertical takeoff; to replace F-16 (4,000
aircraft, 1976). Than comes with F-35B model to replace Harrier II (1991). C
model is for Navy, carrier use to replace the F/A-18 Hornet (1987-1999).
4. F/A-22 Raptor. (2006) Stop production, at today’s 100 aircraft. When he just said we
need 2,358? USAF wants 20 per year till 2012, total 183, till F-35 arrives.
[Note: Raptor is the best combat aircraft ever designed or even considered. Expensive !
F-35 is smaller and cheaper, shared cost with other countries and almost as good.
But, if the F-35 has problems, then we have no active Fighter/Attack aircraft.
5. Mothball ballistic missiles to show we are friendly. [?!? Bovine excrement.]
War is a come as you are party. We authorized a great number of ships after
Pearl Harbor. Not one, repeat, NOT ONE capital ship authorized after war was declared
was completed to serve in combat. The Japanese after a decade of practice at war in
China, walked over the US, British, and Dutch navies, then their armies in the Pacific.
We fought with ships authorized in WWI. Only Marshalltown’s own Admiral Frank
Fletcher was able to stop them with this old fleet maintained with depression era lack of
funding.
When war was declared in Europe in 1939, the Congress authorized a Two-Ocean
Navy that included the Essex class aircraft carrier and Iowa Class battleship; these
reached combat in 1943 and 1944 – after Fletcher had stemmed the tide at Coral Sea,
Midway, and Guadalcanal. The Montana class battleship and the Midway class aircraft
carrier DID NOT reach combat. The Midway class carrier fought in Vietnam. Today,
18% of our aircraft carriers were commissioned in 1961. If Enterprise and Kitty Hawk
were the same age at the time of Pearl Harbor, they would have been commissioned in
1894 – four years BEFORE the Spanish American War.
Preparation for war is expensive. So is our medical, life, home, auto insurance.
Only preparation can keep us from being overrun. Weapons procurement can be
wasteful – Eisenhower’s 1961 warning against “unwarranted influence of the military
industrial complex” whose goal is sale of profitable items. The impregnable Maginot
Line created construction jobs in France and would resist WWI frontal attack. Great
wisdom is required to foresee the future and courage to invest there. The author totally
overlooks future warfare dangers of – bacterial (water, livestock, smallpox), chemical
(cities, crops), electronic (internet, finance, communication).
One sign of encouragement – have you seen the Air Force ads on TV? –
Air, Space, Cyberspace.
Color pictures at http://www.manorweb.com/creative/2008/pics.html