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Corn

VIEWS: 7 PAGES: 27

  • pg 1
									Note. Missing values indicate unreported values, discontinued series, or not yet released data.


                                                                      Table 12--Corn: Cash prices at principal markets
  Mkt yr 1/     Sep          Oct          Nov          Dec          Jan              Feb              Mar                 Apr
                                                                          No. 2 yellow, Central Illinois ($ per bushel)
         2002         2.57         2.41         2.36         2.32         2.29             2.33             2.31                2.36
         2003         2.25         2.11         2.26         2.38         2.52             2.73             2.89                3.03
         2004         1.98         1.77         1.79         1.87         1.86             1.86             1.97                1.94
         2005         1.75         1.67         1.75         1.89         1.98             2.07             2.04                2.18
         2006         2.21         2.82         3.43         3.53         3.66              3.9             3.76                3.36
         2007         3.15         3.28         3.66         4.03         4.55             4.91             5.15                5.59
         2008           5          3.69         3.42         3.33         3.61             3.46               3.6               3.69
                                                                          No. 2 yellow, Gulf ports ($ per bushel) 3/
         2002         2.89         2.79         2.77         2.71         2.69             2.69             2.67                2.68
         2003         2.63         2.65         2.75         2.85         2.95             3.12             3.27                3.39
         2004         2.49         2.37         2.39         2.43         2.44              2.4             2.54                2.45
         2005         2.47         2.58         2.44         2.61         2.61             2.72             2.67                2.74
         2006         3.05         3.82         4.17         4.08         4.19              4.5             3.81                3.88
         2007         4.05         4.17         4.35         4.58         5.25             5.59             5.99                6.26
         2008         5.94         4.65         4.16         4.02         4.39             4.15             4.18                4.28
                                                                             No. 2 yellow, St. Louis ($ per bushel)
         2002         2.69         2.52          2.5         2.49         2.44              2.5             2.47                2.52
         2003         2.35                      2.63         2.62         2.86             2.86             3.02                3.13
         2004         1.84         1.95          2.1         2.14         2.04             2.17             2.18                2.12
         2005         1.69         1.78         2.13          2.1         2.15             2.24             2.29                2.43
         2006         2.47         2.59         3.71         3.73         3.86             4.14             4.03                4.63
         2007         3.36          3.6         3.96         4.29         4.85             5.15             5.52                5.85
         2008         5.15         3.76         3.42         3.41          3.8             3.78             3.85                3.95
                                                                             No. 2 yellow, Omaha ($ per bushel)
         2002         2.58          2.4         2.33         2.27         2.26              2.3             2.27                2.32
         2003         2.19         2.11         2.27         2.38         2.49             2.68             2.88                2.97
         2004         2.04         1.75         1.65         1.74         1.75             1.81             1.88                1.84
         2005         1.57         1.49         1.49         1.85         1.88             1.93             1.91                2.08
         2006         2.11         2.79         3.29          3.4         3.64              3.9               3.8               3.39
         2007         3.17          3.2         3.72         4.11         4.64             4.93               5.2               5.62
         2008         5.24         4.01          3.7         3.75         3.75             3.52             3.69                3.79
                                                                           No. 2 yellow, Chicago ($ per bushel) 4/
         2002          2.7         2.58         2.47         2.41         2.41             2.43             2.43                2.48
         2003         2.34         2.27         2.35         2.49         2.64             2.82             3.02                3.17
         2004         2.22         1.88         1.93         2.02         2.02             2.01             2.09                2.12
         2005         1.95         1.87         1.86         1.99         2.04             2.09             2.09                2.24
         2006         2.21         2.93         3.51          3.6         3.78             3.96             3.92                3.56
         2007          3.5          3.4         3.76         4.23         4.78             4.99             5.28                5.77
         2008         5.27         3.92         3.61         3.45          3.8             3.61             3.81                3.91
                                                                                    No. 2 yellow, Kansas City ($ per bushel)
           2002             2.63           2.51            2.49              2.5   2.41            2.46            2.41        2.45
           2003             2.21           2.19            2.38             2.49   2.64            2.75            2.96        3.06
           2004             1.96           1.75            1.78             1.79   1.78            1.82            1.97         1.9
           2005             1.79            1.7            1.55             1.79   1.92            2.03            1.98        2.17
           2006             2.22           2.89            3.47             3.56   3.73            3.96            3.87        3.45
           2007             3.37           3.37             3.7             4.14   4.72            5.09            5.32        5.71
           2008             5.24           3.96            3.68             3.56   3.86            3.58            3.73        3.79
                                                                                      No. 2 yellow, Toledo ($ per bushel)
           2002             2.63           2.51            2.49             2.46   2.43            2.48            2.45        2.52
           2003             2.34           2.11            2.24             2.37   2.57            2.75            2.92        3.06
           2004             2.11           1.83            1.78             1.91   1.88            1.89            1.98        1.95
           2005             1.73           1.58            1.64             1.89   1.94            2.03                2       2.18
           2006             2.23           2.79            3.41             3.54   3.67            3.94            3.83        3.44
           2007             3.45           3.33            3.71             4.18   4.71            4.99            5.29        5.75
           2008             5.12           3.84            3.67             3.54   3.82            3.64            3.74         3.8
                                                                                     No. 2 yellow, Memphis ($ per bushel)
           2002             2.61           2.52             2.5             2.49   2.47            2.47            2.48        2.46
           2003             2.29           2.28            2.46              2.6   2.72            2.91            3.05        3.15
           2004             2.05           1.96            2.02             2.09   2.09            2.07              2.2       2.18
           2005             1.75           1.92            2.08              2.2   2.21            2.32            2.33        2.45
           2006             2.52           3.19            3.82             3.78   3.86            4.19            4.03        3.81
           2007             3.28           3.66            3.96             4.24    4.9            5.11              5.4        5.8
           2008              5.1            3.6            3.36             3.44   3.83            3.67            3.79        3.87
                                                                                    No. 2 yellow, Minneapolis ($ per bushel)
           2002             2.55           2.35            2.21             2.11   2.15             2.2            2.23        2.31
           2003             2.18            2.1            2.26             2.31   2.48            2.67            2.84        3.04
           2004             2.04           1.74            1.77             1.81   1.78            1.78            1.93        1.94
           2005             1.54           1.46            2.08             1.75   1.78            1.85            2.02        2.06
           2006             2.02           2.56            3.18             3.27   3.48            3.77            3.67        3.31
           2007             3.03           3.18            3.51              3.9   4.51            4.83            5.05        5.37
           2008             4.87           3.63            3.31             3.31   3.54            3.34            3.53        3.69
                                                                                    No. 2 white, Kansas City ($ per bushel)
           2002             2.91           2.76            2.99             3.12   3.21            3.19            3.04        2.99
           2003             2.57           2.36            2.62             2.69   2.85            2.99                        3.08
           2004             2.13           1.94            1.96               2     2.1            2.08            2.07         1.9
           2005             1.82           1.67            1.62             1.74   1.93            2.12            2.24        2.41
           2006             2.43           3.13            3.77             3.99   4.44            4.85            4.96        4.73
           2007             4.02           3.86            4.11             4.46   4.93            5.07            5.35        5.76
           2008             5.69           4.39            4.04              3.7   4.21            4.05            4.02        3.96

1/ September-August.
2/ Simple average of monthly prices reported for the marketing year.
3/ Barge delivered to Louisiana gulf.
4/ Processors.
Source: USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain and Feed Market News.
ata.


markets
          May          Jun          Jul          Aug          Avg 2/
                                                                                                      General Information abo
shel)
                 2.4         2.37         2.13         2.26            2.34   "Corn is the most widely produced feed grain in the Un
                 2.9         2.76         2.26         2.17            2.52   than 90 percent of total production. Around 80 million
                1.93         2.02          2.2         1.98            1.93   corn. The majority of the crop is used as livestock feed;
                2.22         2.15         2.22         2.07              2    a multitude of food and industrial products including st
                3.52         3.68         3.03         3.08            3.33   fructose corn syrup, corn oil, and ethanol for use as a fu
                5.58         6.55         5.97         5.04            4.79


l) 3/
                2.74         2.72         2.48         2.56             2.7
                3.29         3.13         2.66         2.64            2.94
                2.42         2.49         2.69         2.59            2.48
                2.81         2.78          2.9         2.92            2.69
                4.07          4.2         3.73         3.84            3.94
                                                                                                       What factors affect corn
                6.18         7.29         6.74         5.97            5.53


el)                                                                           > Demand for Animal Feed
                2.58         2.55         2.32         2.27            2.49   > The Value of The U.S. Dollar Determines D
                3.15         2.65         2.48         2.32            2.73   > Government Regulations
                2.21         2.38         2.38         2.08            2.13   > Oil Prices
                2.45         2.42         2.35         2.26            2.19
                                                                              > The Weather
                3.81         3.85         3.16         3.16             3.6
                5.75         6.74         6.18         5.32            5.05
                                                                              > And More...

l)
                2.34         2.29         2.05         2.11            2.29
                2.83         2.72         2.29         2.21             2.5
                1.85         1.91         1.96          1.7            1.82
                2.11         2.05         2.18         2.04            1.88
                3.55         3.77         3.15         3.18            3.33
                5.65         6.64         5.95         5.25            4.84


 4/
                2.54         2.49         2.26         2.31            2.46
                3.05         2.92         2.43         2.37            2.66
                 2.1         2.18         2.33          2.1            2.08
                2.34         2.27         2.34         2.15             2.1
                3.75         3.82         3.19          3.3            3.46
                5.76         6.73         6.17         5.33            4.98
hel)
        2.47   2.41   2.15    2.3   2.43
        2.87   2.71   2.22   2.16   2.55
        1.92   2.03   2.16   1.92    1.9
        2.23   2.17   2.27   2.12   1.98
        3.56   3.74   3.25   3.29   3.42
        5.72   6.82   6.18   5.31   4.95


l)
        2.54   2.48   2.25   2.39   2.47
        2.94   2.85   2.43   2.33   2.58
        1.98   2.08   2.23   1.97   1.97
        2.34   2.24   2.27   2.16     2
        3.63   3.79   3.29   3.36   3.41
        5.76   6.69   6.03   5.16   4.92


el)
        2.61   2.49   2.24   2.23   2.46
        3.04   2.89   2.38   2.26   2.67
        2.16   2.22   2.35   2.07   2.12
        2.48   2.39   2.37   2.27   2.23
        3.77   3.87   3.21   2.84   3.57
        5.76   6.71   6.07   5.27   5.01


 hel)
        2.38   2.34   2.08   2.15   2.26
        2.92   2.75   2.29   2.15    2.5
        1.94   1.95   2.04    1.8   1.88
        2.06   1.94   1.85   1.85   1.85
        3.46   3.45   2.86   2.95   3.16
        5.36   6.33   6.33   4.99    4.7


hel)
          3    2.87   2.65   2.57   2.94
        2.89   2.74   2.26   2.16   2.66
        1.89   1.97   2.12   1.93   2.01
        2.57    2.4   2.49   2.34   2.11
        4.78   4.92   4.32   3.85   4.18
        5.87   6.72   6.58   5.59   5.19
  General Information about Corn.
ely produced feed grain in the United States, accounting for more
tal production. Around 80 million acres of land are planted with
the crop is used as livestock feed; the remainder is processed into
nd industrial products including starch, sweeteners such as high
orn oil, and ethanol for use as a fuel. "

                                http://www.wikinvest.com/concept/Corn_Prices




   What factors affect corn prices?

 imal Feed
he U.S. Dollar Determines Demand for Export
egulations
                                          Avg. Year Corn Prices - Central Illinois
                  $6.00

                  $5.00
                                                                                           $4.79

                  $4.00
Avg. Corn Price




                                                                               $3.33
                  $3.00
                                          $2.52
                              $2.34
                  $2.00                               $1.93        $2.00

                  $1.00

                  $0.00
                          1           2           3            4           5           6
                                                         Year 2002-2008
                                                Avg. Corn Prices
l Illinois                                           $2.34
                                                     $2.52
                         y = 0.3611x + 1.5043
                              R² = 0.5499            $1.93
                                                     $2.00
                                                     $3.33
                                                     $4.79
                 $3.73
                                                     $3.73

                            Series1
                            Linear (Series1)




             7
        StatTools (Core Analysis Pack)
               Analysis:        Forecast
          Performed By:         grifter
                  Date:         Sunday, June 07, 2009
              Updating:         Live/Unlinked



Forecasting Constant
Span                                          3


Moving Averages
Mean Abs Err                          1.302
Root Mean Sq Err                      1.542
Mean Abs Per% Err                    31.49%

                                                   Forecast and Original Observations
 6.00


 5.00


 4.00


 3.00
                                              StatTools Student Version                                2.34
                                                            For Academic Use Only
                                                                                                       Forecast
 2.00


 1.00


 0.00
           2002



                         2003



                                     2004



                                                     2005



                                                                2006



                                                                         2007



                                                                                2008



                                                                                       2009



                                                                                                2010




                                                             Original Observations
 6.00


 5.00


 4.00


 3.00
                                              StatTools Student Version
                                                            For Academic Use Only

 2.00


 1.00


 0.00
                  2002




                                            2003




                                                                  2004




                                                                                2005




                                                                                              2006




                                                                                                       2007
               2002




                       2003




                                    2004




                                                     2005




                                                                    2006




                                                                                2007
                                   Forecast Errors
 2.50



 2.00



 1.50


                         StatTools Student Version
 1.00
                               For Academic Use Only


 0.50



 0.00
               2002




                       2003




                                    2004




                                                     2005




                                                                    2006




                                                                                2007
Forecasting Data       2.34          Forecast               Error
2002                  2.5200
2003                  1.9300
2004                  2.0000
2005                  3.3300          2.150                 1.180
2006                  4.7900          2.420                 2.370
2007                  3.7300          3.373                 0.357
2008                                  3.950                          Average Forecasted
2009                                  4.157                                   4.017
2010                                  3.946
Year     Rate
  2002          0.85
  2003          1.03
  2004          1.18   The attached image is to illustra
  2005          1.16   strength of the dollar vs. the eur
  2006          1.18   most in Europe, the number 1 b
  2007          1.28   corn.
  2008          1.24
  2009          1.25
              Who Else Buys Corn?
The attached image is to illustrate the declining
strength of the dollar vs. the euro. The currency used
most in Europe, the number 1 buyer of U.S. exported
        StatTools (Core Analysis Pack)
               Analysis:       Forecast
          Performed By:        grifter
                  Date:        Sunday, June 07, 2009
              Updating:        Live/Unlinked



Forecasting Constant
Span                                     3


Moving Averages
Mean Abs Err                           0.0707
Root Mean Sq Err                       0.0844
Mean Abs Per% Err                      5.85%

                                                Forecast and Original Observations
 1.40


 1.20


 1.00


 0.80
                                          StatTools Student Version                                                       Rate
                                                        For Academic Use Only
 0.60
                                                                                                                          Forecast

 0.40


 0.20


 0.00
          2002


                        2003


                               2004


                                         2005


                                                    2006


                                                              2007


                                                                            2008


                                                                                   2009


                                                                                            2010


                                                                                                     2011


                                                                                                            2012




                                                           Original Observations
 1.40


 1.20


 1.00


 0.80
                                          StatTools Student Version
                                                        For Academic Use Only
 0.60


 0.40


 0.20


 0.00
                 2002




                                2003




                                                 2004




                                                                     2005




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                                                                                                                   2008




                                                                                                                           2009
             2002




                    2003




                                    2004




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                                                                                                 2009
                                               Forecast Errors
 0.16

 0.14

 0.12

 0.10

 0.08
                             StatTools Student Version
 0.06                                      For Academic Use Only

 0.04

 0.02

 0.00
             2002




                    2003




                                    2004




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                                                             2006




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                                                                                       2008




                                                                                                 2009
Forecasting Data            Rate                 Forecast            Error
2002                       0.8500
2003                       1.0300
2004                       1.1800
2005                       1.1600               1.0200              0.1400
2006                       1.1800               1.1233              0.0567
2007                       1.2800               1.1733              0.1067
2008                       1.2400               1.2067              0.0333
2009                       1.2500               1.2333              0.0167
2010                                            1.2567                              Average Forecasted
2011                                            1.2489                                     1.2525
2012                                            1.2519
                                                              Who makes Ethanol?
U.S. Ethanol Production/Imports
         (Millions of U.S. Gallons)              Currently the U.S. government buys 10% of the corn
Year     Production      Imports      Demand     yield for biofuels. That number is expected to increase
  2001          1770            n/a        n/a   by 3% over the next 5 years.
  2002          2130             46       2085
  2003          2800             61       2900
  2004          3400            161       3530
  2005          3904            135       4049
  2006          4855            653       5377
  2007          6500            450       6847
  2008          9000            556       9637
uys 10% of the corn
 expected to increase




                  How much corn is used to make Ethanol?

             28.6% of last years total output was used soley for the create of
             ethanol. This is able to occur since ethanol is given subsidies $1.05-
             $1.38 per gallon, or 42 percent to 55 percent of ethanol's wholesale
             market price.

                                         * Source http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=7308
                               http://fatknowledge.blogspot.com/2008/06/us-corn-consumption.html
         StatTools (Core Analysis Pack)
                   Analysis:       Forecast
              Performed By:        grifter
                      Date:        Sunday, June 07, 2009
                  Updating:        Live/Unlinked



Forecasting Constant
Span                                            3


Moving Averages
Mean Abs Err                           2458.92
Root Mean Sq Err                       2699.73
Mean Abs Per% Err                      36.39%

                                                    Forecast and Original Observations
 12000.00


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                                                            For Academic Use Only
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                                                             Original Observations
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                                                            For Academic Use Only

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                                                                                            2008
                                                 Forecast Errors
 4500.00

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                                        For Academic Use Only
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                                                                                            2008
Forecasting Data               n/a                 Forecast            Error
2002                       2085.0000
2003                       2900.0000
2004                       3530.0000
2005                       4049.0000              2838.33             1210.67
2006                       5377.0000              3493.00             1884.00
2007                       6847.0000              4318.67             2528.33
2008                       9637.0000              5424.33             4212.67
2009                                              7287.00                       Average Forecasted
2010                                              7923.67                             7831.07
2011                                              8282.56
U.S. Total Corn Production 2002-08

Area Harvested (Thousand Acres)                                      Yield
                                           2004     2005     2006            2004    2005    2006
                                          73,631   75,107   70,648           160.4   147.9   149.1




*Source http://www.corn.org/uscprod.htm




                                          Why is Production down?
                       Weather conditions have not been as favorable with many
                       recent droughts, also it has been reported that there has
                       been a slower-than-average pace of planting in the eastern
                       Corn Belt as reported in Crop Progress.
Production (Thousand Bushels)
                            2002   10,577.66
                            2003   11,188.04
                            2004   12,774.50
                            2005   13,234.97
                            2006   12,510.27
                            2007   14,361.54
                            2008   13,740.39
         StatTools (Core Analysis Pack)
                   Analysis:           Forecast
              Performed By:            grifter
                      Date:            Monday, June 08, 2009
                  Updating:            Live/Unlinked



Forecasting Constant
Span                                                3


Moving Averages
Mean Abs Err                                931.44
Root Mean Sq Err                           1165.06
Mean Abs Per% Err                           6.80%

                                                         Forecast and Original Observations
 16000.00

 14000.00

 12000.00

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                                                     StatTools Student Version                                                 [ST_DataSet4]
                                                                For Academic Use Only
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 16000.00

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                                                     StatTools Student Version
                                                                For Academic Use Only
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                                           For Academic Use Only
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                                                                                          2008
Forecasting Data           [ST_DataSet4]              Forecast            Error
2002                       10577.6600
2003                       11188.0400
2004                       12774.5000
2005                       13234.9700               11513.40             1721.57
2006                       12510.2700               12399.17              111.10
2007                       14361.5400               12839.91             1521.63
2008                       13740.3900               13368.93              371.46
2009                                                13537.40
2010                                                13879.78
2011                                                13719.19
                                                                             *As you can see this
                                                                             be found, more crops




* Source http://fatknowledge.blogspot.com/2008/06/us-corn-consumption.html
                                     Expected U.S. Corn Production:                        105%
                                     Corn Feed                                              62%
                                     Human Consumption                                       8%
                                     Biofuel                                                29%
                                     Other                                                   6%




                                       Expected Corn Production
                                                            Series1

              62%




                                                                            29%


                                             8%                                                            6%


           Corn Feed                 Human Consumption                    Biofuel                         Other

*As you can see this graph represents greater than 100%. In order to achieve this output either new production methods must
be found, more crops planted, or with the higher cost associated with a product in high demand, substitutes will be found.
methods must
   Please Note:
   Values inputted must lie with a range of -.03 and .03 for
   accurate forecast.


Inputs                                                                Forecasted Price:
Production Corn Increase (+-)                              -0.01
Feed Increase % (+-)                                        0.00
Biofuel Increase % (+-)                                     0.00

Breakdown
Corn Feed                                                      0.58
Foods *High Fructose Corn Syrup/ Cereals                       0.07
Biofuel                                                        0.29
Other                                                          0.06




Total Minus Other%                                             0.94
                                           2.33
                                              1
                                              1
$4.33
      StatTools (Core Analysis Pack)
            Analysis:   Correlation and Covariance
       Performed By:    grifter
               Date:    Monday, June 08, 2009
           Updating:    Live


                          Avg. Corn Prices           n/a            Rate         [ST_DataSet4]
Correlation Table         Avg Corn Prices      Ethanol Demand   Exchange Rate      Production
Avg. Corn Prices              1.000                  0.742         0.557            0.606
n/a                           0.742                  1.000         0.753            0.781
Rate                          0.557                  0.753         1.000            0.944
[ST_DataSet4]                 0.606                  0.781         0.944            1.000

                          Avg. Corn Prices           n/a            Rate         [ST_DataSet4]
Covariance Table          Avg Corn Prices      Ethanol Demand   Exchange Rate      Production
Avg. Corn Prices             1.1064           2040.2964          0.0859           859.4111
n/a                        2040.2964         6830100.1429       288.4936        2753830.2229
Rate                         0.0859            288.4936          0.0215           186.6908
[ST_DataSet4]               859.4111         2753830.2229       186.6908        1820612.6509

								
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