Pres. v. Congress. Campaigns

							Pres. v. Congress. Campaigns
      »   Nominated (self) vs. selected (party, post-primary)
      »   Party in Europe
      »   Pres. Races more competitive, fewer vote
      »   Congress Incumbency: 96% reelected (Jacobson)
      »   Campaign against Washington (centrifugal forces:
          Grodzins, Loomis)
      »   Presidential: “Getting Mentioned”
      »   Length of time to run/$/organization/strategy/themes
      »   House now single-member
      »   Gerrymandering and Malapportionment
      »   District size/shape at issue: court case list: incl.
          Reynolds v. Sims “1 person 1 vote”, Baker v. Carr
      »   Sophomore surge
      »   Open vs. closed primary
      »   Party leaders can’t control: delegates vs. trustees
Primary vs. General Campaigns
• Primary Activists more ideological
          » Off-term elections: lower turnout results in higher
            ideological scores?

• Iowa Caucuses: focus media, ideologues
          » Kerry?

• Primaries: same possibility: McGovern
• Position v. Valence issues
• Awareness: TV, mail, debates (only
  challenger advantage), internet: Dean or
  Trippi’s Campaign?
• Gap between running campaign and gov’t
                      $Money$
• Presidential: private and public funds
            »   Congressional: Usu. Private, unless contest
            »   Ex. Shays/Farrell
            »   Public financed
            »    AZ, ME, VT. Advantage: Incumbents
            »   Campaign Finance Reform
            »   Watergate, Buckley v. Valeo (1976)
            »   Solidary benefits
            »   Primary and general election campaigns separate
            »   Spending has skyrocketed: M. Huffington
            »   Independent expenditures: 527
            »   Is $ speech? No
            »   Overstated impacts: VP, abortion, religion
            »   Congress: $ counts
            »   Incumbency advantage: Congress won’t reform
            »   No PACS: return of the fat cats
            »   Shorter campaigns: advantage- incumbents
        What decides elections?
• Party ID. Why not Dems?
              » Dems less tied to party; GOP turnout/independents
•   V.O. Key: self-interested party switchers
•   Prospective voters: former AP students
•   Retrospective voters: the masses, wallets
•   Campaigns reinvigorate interest
•   Theme focus. Kerry?
•   Winning a comb. of loyalty and turnout
•   Dem. New Deal coalition
              » Blacks, Jews less, Hispanics mixed
              » Less Catholics/Southerners/union decline
• Reps. Coalition: business/prof/occ. farmers
Election Outcomes/Partisanship
• Argument:
  – Public Policy perpetuates, predominantly
  – Great Britain: dramatic realignments
  – Here: GRADUAL change, due to Constitutional
    system
     • Checks and Balances, separation of powers
  – Elections matter over time
• Enduring Questions:
  – Parties have weakened
         – Split-ticket voting, less pty. control, fundraising challenges
  – Factors:
         – Strength of economy, candidate popularity, party loyalty/ID
  – Congressional Campaigns hinge on district lines.
    Result: STATE ELECTIONS MATTER