The Mixed System: How did primaries change the presidential by 5iC78p6

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									      The Mixed System:
 How did primaries change the
presidential nomination process?
            Announcements
• Tuesday, Sept. 20
  – 12:30-2pm
  – Panel Discussion on President Bush’s
    nomination of John Roberts to be Chief Justice
    of the Supreme Court
  – IPJ Peace and Justice Theatre
   Important Dates (Reminder)
• September 21 (Next Wednesday!)
  – Choose topic for research paper
  – Submit chosen topic with a preliminary list of
    books/sources
• November 11
  – Last day I will accept drafts
• November 18: Paper Due
• Last days of class: Debates/Presentations
                Research papers
• Choose an incident in which a president used a
  specific power.
• Research, using primary sources:
   – how the president justified his use of that power
   – how others in and out of government evaluated that
     justification
   – whether and how other actors attempted to restrain him.
• Based on that research, make your own argument:
   – whether and on what basis the president’s use of the power
     was justified;
   – whether appropriate steps were taken to check his use of
     that power;
   – whether the act in question falls within your view of the
     scope of legitimate presidential authority.
                      Topics
•   Detention of U.S. citizens as “enemy combatants”
•   Executive privilege over meetings with aides
•   Suspension of the writ of habeas corpus
•   Roosevelt’s attempt to “pack the court”
•   Internment of Japanese Americans during WWII
•   Refusal to enforce the Supreme Court ruling
•   A topic of your own choosing
                  An “A” Paper
• Makes a clear, original argument
• Answers all the questions in the assignment
• Uses several primary sources
   –   Presidential speeches/memoirs
   –   Memoirs of key presidential aides
   –   The Congressional Record
   –   Contemporary news accounts
   –   Court cases
• Is submitted on time (you will be docked a full
  letter grade for every day the paper is late!)
Methods of Nominating
Presidential Candidates
 “King Caucus”: 1800-1828

Convention System: 1832-1912
      The Convention System
• National party nominating convention
  selects presidential candidate
• Strong parties
• Patronage
• High participation
• Parties try to control presidents
 Three changes at the turn of the
          20th century

• Civil Service
            Rise In Civil Service
                Employment
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
 0
     1816   1831   1851   1871   1891   1911   1931   1951   1971   1991

                   Percentage of employees under merit
  Number of civil servants under
    merit system, 1816-1921
600000

500000

400000

300000

200000

100000

     0
         1816 1821 1831 1841 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921

          Number of employees              Number of civil servants
 Three changes at the turn of the
          20th century

• Civil Service

• Communications technology
       Changes in technology
• Railroads (1850s +)

• Daily newspapers (1880s +)

• Radio and TV (1940s +)
 Number of daily and weekly
       newspapers
3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

 500

   0
       1790 1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990

        Number of daily newspapers            Number of weeklies
 Number of Households with
  radio and TV (in millions)
100
 90
 80
 70
 60
 50
 40
 30
 20
 10
  0
      1910   1920   1930   1940   1950   1960    1970   1980   1990

        Households with radio                   Households with TV
 Three changes at the turn of the
          20th century

• Civil Service

• Communications technology

• Primary elections
     Number of States Holding
        Primary Elections
20
18
16
14
12
10
 8
 6
 4
 2
 0
     1912   1920   1928   1936   1944   1952   1960    1968

            Democrats                    Republicans
First Three Methods of Nominating
       Presidential Candidates
      “King Caucus”: 1800-1828

    Convention System: 1832-1912

      Mixed System: 1912-1968
            Mixed System
• Real decision about nomination made at
  national convention

• Candidates can choose to run in primaries
 Percent of Party Convention
Delegates Chosen by Primaries
60

50

40

30

20

10

 0
     1912   1920   1928   1936   1944   1952   1960     1968

            Democrats                     Republicans
      Number of Convention Ballots to
      Select the Presidential Nominee

120

100

 80

 60

 40

 20

  0
      1912   1920   1928   1936   1944   1952   1960    1968

             Democrats                    Republicans
  1952 Democratic Convention:
  Delegates pledged by primaries

• Sen. Estes Kefauver (TN): 257.5 delegates
• Gov. Adlai Stevenson (IL): 41.5 delegates
• Uncommitted: 611.5 delegates

• Others:
   – Sen. Richard Russell (GA): 161.5 delegates
   – Averell Harriman: 112.5 delegates
   – Sen. Bob Kerr (OK): 45.5 delegates
Compare the three systems we have
discussed so far. How do each serve as a
resource or constraint for presidents? Which
do you think is most democratic? Which has
the best chance of producing good
presidents?
1968 Democratic Convention
       Presidential
Party Nomination Systems

   “King Caucus”: 1800-1828

  Convention System: 1832-1912

    Mixed System: 1912-1968

    Primary System: 1972-???
   Important changes to party rules as a
 result of McGovern-Fraser Commission
• Anti-discrimination provisions
• Explicit party rules and open party meetings
• Bans the UNIT RULE
   – Unit rule: the practice of apportioning delegates in a
     winner-take-all fashion
• Encourages broad and open participation in delegate
  selection process
• Mandates that minorities’ opinions be fairly weighted in
  delegate selection process
• Bans the automatic delegate-status of party officials and
  elected officeholders
   Number of states holding
     primary elections
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
 5
 0
  1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000

        Democrats                          Republicans
 Percent of Party Convention
Delegates Chosen by Primaries
 90
 80
 70
 60
 50
 40
 30
 20
 10
  0
   1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
             Democrats                       Republicans
  Some delegates still chosen by
          other means
• Caucus:
  – A Meeting where any affiliated voter can come
    and express their opinions
• State convention:
  – Local party groups select delegates to state
    party convention. State convention delegates
    select delegates to national nominating
    convention.
 Consequences of Party Reform
• Increase in number of primaries
• Increase in importance of media
  – (And hence the importance of early primaries!)
  Early primaries get more media
         coverage (1980)
State    Primary Date   Number of   Percentage of
                        delegates       CBS’
                                      coverage
Iowa        Jan 21         87           14%

NH          Jan 26         41           14%
TX          May 3         232           2%
CA          June 3        474           6%
 Consequences of Party Reform
• Increase in number of primaries
• Increase in importance of media
• Increase in importance of early primaries
  (and momentum and expectations!)
    A representative beginning?
                From the 2000 Census

              Iowa           New          National
                           Hampshire      average
Population   2,929,324       1,235,786   281,421,906
               (30th)          (41st)
% White       93.9%             96%        75.1%

Median       $39,469          $49,467     $41,994
income
% Farm         4.4%             .9%         1.9%
employmt
 Consequences of Party Reform
• Increase in number of primaries
• Increase in importance of media
• Increase in importance of early primaries
  (and momentum and expectations!)
• Decreases importance of national party
  conventions
    Consequences of Party Reform
• Increase in number of primaries
• Increase in importance of media
• Increase in importance of early primaries
• Decreases importance of national party
  conventions
• Decreases importance of state party leaders
         Changes After 1968
• McGovern-Fraser reforms

• FECA
 Federal Election Campaign Act
• Creates a voluntary subsidy for candidates who
  enter primary elections
   – All funds candidates raise in amounts of $250 or less (if
     they raise $5000 in 20 different states) are matched by
     the federal government on Jan 1 of election year


• Bans large donations by individuals
   – Individuals can only give $2000 to a primary candidate
Consequences of Party Reform &
           FECA
• Increase in number of primaries
• Increase in importance of media
• Increase in importance of early primaries
• Decreases importance of national party
  conventions
• Decreases importance of state party leaders
• Harder to raise money (takes longer to raise
  big money in small contributions!)
      A Couple of Problems?

• Ideological primary voters?

• Candidates mobilize factions?
      Hunt Commission, 1982

• Superdelegates

• Frontloading
Date      2004 PRIMARIES/caucuses      1996
Jan wk2   DC
Jan wk3   IA
Jan wk4   NH                        AK, HI
Feb wk1   AZ, DE, MO, SC, NM        LA
Feb wk2   MI, WA, ME VA, TN, DC     IA
Feb wk3   MI, ID                    NH
Feb wk4                             DE, AZ, ND,
                                    SD
Mar wk1 CA, CT, GA, ME, MD, HI,
        MN, ND, MA, NY, OH, RI,
        VT
       AP Delegate totals,
        March 17, 2004
   (2,162 needed to win nomination)
Kerry: 2333
Edwards: 530
Dean: 156
Clark: 73
Sharpton: 26
Kucinich: 22
Lieberman: 2
Gephardt: 2
 The INVISIBLE PRIMARY:
The race for money and endorsements in the
      year before the general election
                                    Candidate's share of party loyal
                                  funds raised per month (GOP 2000)
                                  100
                                  90
Percentage of Party Loyal Funds




                                  80
                                  70

                                  60
                                  50

                                  40
                                  30

                                  20
                                  10

                                   0
                                         Jan-99 Feb-99 Mar-99 Apr-99 May-99 Jun-99   Jul-99 Aug-99 Sep-99 Oct-99 Nov-99 Dec-99
                                                                            Month
                                        DOLE, ELIZABETH                                   BUSH, GEORGE W
                                        SMITH, ROBERT C                                   BAUER, GARY L
                                        HATCH, ORRIN GRANT                                KEYES, ALAN L
                                        ALEXANDER, ANDREW LAMAR                           KASICH, JOHN R
                                        FORBES, STEVE                                     QUAYLE, DAN
                                        MCCAIN, JOHN S
       Presidential
Party Nomination Systems
     “King Caucus”: 1800-1828

   Convention System: 1832-1912

     Mixed System: 1912-1968

   Primary System: 1972-1982?
(Modified primary system? 1982-????)
 2004 Democratic Nomination

What happened to Howard Dean?
How does the current system compare to
historical nominations systems we’ve
considered? What is the relationship
between a presidential candidate and his or
her party today?
         Where are we now?
• Invisible primary will start December ’06

• Has it started already?
           Possible contenders?
•   John Edwards       •   Bill Frist
•   Howard Dean        •   Rudy Giuliani
•   Hillary Clinton    •   John McCain
•   Rod Blagojevich    •   George Allen
•   Janet Napolitano   •   Mitt Romney
•   Bill Richardson    •   Goerge Pataki
•   Tom Vilsack        •   Chuck Hagel
•   Evan Bayh
      In small groups, discuss:
1. What types of candidates are advantaged by the
   current nomination system? Are they the “right”
   kind of candidates?
2. What are the chances that your candidate will
   win his or her party’s nomination?
3. If you were hired to advise this particular
   candidate how to get his or her party’s
   nomination, what would you tell him or her to
   do?

								
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