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City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



Table of Contents







Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................3



Section 1: Introduction and Economic Overview ..................................................................7



Section 2: Key Economic Indicators....................................................................................13



Section 3: City Comparisons................................................................................................23



Section 4: Operating Funds Revenue/Expenditure History .................................................31



Section 5: General Fund Revenue Trends and Forecasts.....................................................49



Section 6: General Fund Expenditure Trends and Forecasts ...............................................65



Section 7: Revenue/Expenditure Gap ..................................................................................77



Section 8: City-Wide Needs Assessment.............................................................................81



Section 9: Conclusion ..........................................................................................................87









Page 2 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



Executive Summary



Current Status

Starting in FY 1996, the City of Oklahoma City experienced a six-year period of sustained growth, when General

Fund revenues exceeded expenditures, leading to an annual increase in General Fund reserves. However, in FY

2002, due to a $5.2 million revenue shortfall, the City used some of this accumulated fund balance to meet

expenditures. Current projections for FY 2003 year-end show that expenditures are once again outpacing

revenues. Much of this is due to the continued slowdown in the national economy and its impact on the local

economy.



Through the first half of FY 2003, General Fund revenues are approximately $5.0 million under target and are

projected to be $8.6 million below target by year-end. Management has taken the necessary steps to address the

revenue shortfall to ensure that expenditures are reduced accordingly in an effort to balance revenues and

expenditures. The shortfall in revenues can be primarily attributed to a decline in sales tax revenue. Through

January 2003, Sales Tax is $5.7 million under target and is expected to finish the year between $8 and $10 million

under target. The shortfall is due to milder weather conditions in the summer months (lower sales tax on utility

payments) along with a large drop in the services and wholesale sales tax base. We are still seeing positive retail

growth in Oklahoma City, but at a much lower rate than in previous years. As of December, retail growth was

hovering around 1.5%, when it had seen rates of 5-6% growth during the late 1990’s. Use Tax is showing

positive growth in FY 2003 after a decline in FY 2002. Moderate growth was projected in FY 2003, and through

the first half of the year, Use Tax revenue is above last year by nearly 11%.



Franchise revenues are currently in a downward trend. Several factors have impacted this category including an

ONG customer repayment, lower energy prices and mild weather. These aspects have significantly impacted

franchise revenues, which are projected to finish FY 2003 $2.3 million under target. Fines and Forfeitures are

expected to be $565,000 under target by year-end. Much of the decline is due to a decrease in the number of

citations issued. The decrease in interest rates has had a significant impact on the City’s investment income over

the past two fiscal years. Interest income has declined $8.8 million since it reached a peak of $15.1 million in FY

2001. Investment revenue is again projected to decline further in FY 2004 to roughly $3.9 million as Federal

Reserve rates have declined and the City’s investments; purchased at those lower interest rates, mature. Some of

the smaller sources of revenue are faring well, but cannot make up the shortfall in sales tax and other larger

categories. For example, receipts from building-related permits are performing well and new revenue from the

alarm permit and fee program are expected to bring in additional revenue in the current fiscal year.



Expenditures for FY 2003 are expected to equal recurring revenues and the planned amount of budgeted fund

balance. Management has implemented measures to address a $7 million shortfall. These measures include

applying a hiring freeze, mid-year budget reductions from each City department and reductions in capital

spending, subsidies and benefits reserves. A contingency plan to address a possible $12 million year-end shortfall

has been developed as well.



Five Year Forecast

Contrary to most economic predictions, recessional factors have continued to plague the nation throughout 2002.

Though many economists expect the recession to end by the second, or even third, quarter of 2003, there are

several risks to recovery. The threat of additional terrorist attacks and the possibility of war are both acting as

weights on the economy because they add to feelings of uncertainty. Another threat is the possibility of further

declines in the financial markets in 2003. If this occurs, individual investors and businesses will be unlikely to

produce the investments necessary for recovery.



However, the threat of a return to negative growth and a second recession is unlikely, given the overall economic

picture. While this is promising, economists from Oklahoma State University are projecting very slow growth in

the Oklahoma City economy through 2003. Projected employment growth is positive, but just barely. Oklahoma

City is expected to realize 0.6% employment growth in 2002 and improve only slightly to 0.9% in 2003. Over the

five year forecast period, employment growth in Oklahoma City is expected to average 1.2%. Personal income in







Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 3

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



Oklahoma City is projected to increase over the next five years averaging 3.64% annually. Retail trade is

expected to average 2.88% growth during the forecast period.



Revenue & Expenditure Forecasts FY 2004-2008

Revenues are forecast to average close to 3.4% growth over the forecast period. Key categories and their

forecasted growth rates are noted below:



• Sales tax 3.6%

• Other taxes 2.6%

• Franchises Fees 2.9%

• Other Revenue 3.4%



Investment income is still fairly volatile at this time. The City Treasurer’s Office estimates that investment

income will bottom out in FY 2004 at $3.9 million, a $2.4 million decline from the FY 2003 estimated year-end

amount. The projected revenue for FY 2004 is a decline of more than $11 million less than was received in FY

2001 in this revenue category and a 73% decline in a three-year period.



Expenditures are expected to average 6.0% annual growth during the forecast period. Key categories and their

forecasted growth rates are noted below:



• Personal Services 5.5%

• Contractual Services 4.6%

• Supplies and Capital 4.4%

• Transfers 9.6%



Personal Services growth is led by an expected 10% annual increase in insurance costs and a 5.0% annual

increase in wages. Though insurance cost growth is fairly substantial, it is less than the national average growth

because of plan design changes. Contractual Services are anticipated to increase as annual operating subsidy

requirements for EMSA are increased and other expenditure amounts grow at the expected rate of inflation.

Supplies and Capital needs for the next five years are expected to grow at a significant rate although somewhat

erratically. Annual EMSA capital requirements are the primary driver in the supplies and capital category.

Supplies are expected to increase at approximately the rate of inflation. Transfers are expected to show the largest

growth over the forecast period as the retiree health insurance subsidy is expected to grow approximately 10%

annually. In addition, the street resurfacing and CIP funds that were reduced in order to meet FY 2002 and FY

2003 revenue shortfalls are incrementally increased throughout the period in order to get back to FY 2002

budgeted levels. Finally, the General Fund is borrowing funds from the Worker’s Compensation Reserves to pay

for its portion of the BOB financial and human resources system and will begin payments on that loan in FY 05.



Forecasted Budget Shortfalls

From the current fiscal year through FY 2008, General Fund revenues are forecast to average an approximate

annual growth of 3.4%. During this same period, General Fund expenditures are projected to grow at an average

rate of 6.0%. The difference between the two growth rates is cause for concern. While the City may be able to

overcome the disparity in the growth rates over a one to two-year period, a continued pattern could disrupt City

services. The projected gap for FY 2003 is $8.6 million and it is expected to grow to $55.12 million in FY 2008.

For FY 2004, management is anticipating the use of $5 million in fund balance and departments have been asked

to make the necessary budget reductions in order for anticipated revenues to equal anticipated expenditures. On

December 31, 2002, most departments were asked to make budget reductions for FY 2004 of 11% and the Police

and Fire departments were asked to make a reduction of 2% in the General Fund portion of their budgets.









Page 4 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



Issues

When forecasting five years into the future, there are many uncertainties. This report does, however, highlight

several issues which will certainly require careful attention. They are:



• Fire Public Safety Sales Tax Shortfall

• Security requirements for Police, Fire and Airport departments

• Impact of cuts in City staffing levels

• Funding of public safety equipment beyond 2006

• Technology changes and requirements

• Capital funding for facility improvements

• Legislative impacts on revenues and expenditures









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 5

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager









The City of

OKLAHOMA CITY









Page 6 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City









SECTION ONE



INTRODUCTION AND

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 7

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this Five-Year Financial Forecast is to evaluate the City's financial condition as it relates to

ongoing core and ancillary programs and services. This Forecast focuses predominantly on revenues and

expenditures associated with the General Fund, which finances a diverse spectrum of City programs in order to

meet the community's needs. In addition, this forecast will provide a brief look at other operating funds.



In the event sufficient operating revenue is not available to fund core City services or expanded programs, the

Mayor and City Council must determine the best use of available resources. This is one reason why, over time,

some City services may be discontinued or changed to be more efficient. City leaders, citizens and staff work

together during the annual budgeting process to identify and prioritize community needs and allocate resources to

realize objectives. Programs of sufficient importance to the community may be partially funded with special

dedicated taxes or fees. Such instances are evident in Oklahoma City's recent history, including the passage of

several dedicated sales taxes. Even when such revenue sources exist, however, the General Fund is often relied

upon to supplement dedicated purpose revenues, either directly or indirectly.



Armed with factually accurate, timely and objective information about the City's financial condition, elected

officials can help ensure the stability of Oklahoma City's general and other municipal funds. With continued

financial viability, the City can anticipate and meet community needs and enable additional economic

diversification and growth for many years to come. With this in mind, this Five-Year Financial Forecast will

serve three purposes.



1. To comply with City practices designed to ensure the responsible utilization of public resources.

The City adheres to specific financial policies and practices. Certain policies are specified by State law,

such as the Municipal Budget Act, while internal policies are established by City Charter or Council

ordinance or resolution. City financial practices are implemented by the City Manager.



Although a specific requirement for the preparation of a financial forecast does not appear in State law, 11

O. S. 1991, Article X, § 10-103.5 does require the City Manager to "keep the council advised of the

financial condition and future needs of the city and make recommendations as he deems desirable." The

City has adopted the practice of developing a financial forecast that estimates future revenues and

expenditures, and identifies major financial issues that may arise for the ensuing five-year period.



2. To provide the Mayor and City Council with the information necessary to formulate long-term

strategies to ensure the availability of City services at a level appropriate to the actual needs of the

community. Annual budgeting alone can fail to serve the long-term public interest if short-term priorities

reduce resources that may be required to meet imminent needs that fall beyond the one-year budget scope.



By identifying long-term issues and assessing resources in the Five-Year Financial Forecast, the Mayor

and City Council are provided with the necessary information to create continuity between annual budget

cycles and meet the long-term needs of the City. The forecast is a valuable means to identify potential

problems and for policy makers to incrementally address such problems in a manner that provides

seamless continuation of core services.



3. To serve as a resource for the general citizenry and the business community. This document

provides a snapshot of the City's current and projected financial well-being and provides citizens and

business leaders with an overview of the City’s ability to meet community needs over time. This

document also demonstrates the City's financial planning process and strengthens local government’s

accountability to the community.



The Five-Year Financial Forecast is not intended to serve as a comprehensive source for all City-related financial

activity, such as programs funded through City trusts and authorities. This forecast does, however, include an

assessment of unfunded capital and likely programmatic issues that may impact those entities.

The City has made great strides in recent years, both in improving the quality of day-to-day services and in

forging an exciting plan for the future. The City is experiencing some difficulties due to economic conditions on



Page 8 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



a national and local level, and it is hoped that this Five-Year Financial Forecast will provide City leaders, citizens

and staff with information necessary to guide the future of the City of Oklahoma City.



GENERAL INFORMATION

Oklahoma City was incorporated in 1890. The City is the capital and the largest city in Oklahoma with a

population of 506,132. The Oklahoma City Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) population is approximately

1.053 million and includes cities such as Bethany, Del City, Edmond, Midwest City, Moore, Mustang, Nichols

Hills, Norman, Village, Yukon and Warr Acres. Major highways, Interstates I-35, I-44 and I-40 link the city with

a large trade area. The nearest large cities are Tulsa to the northeast and the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex to the

south. The City is governed by a council-manager form of government. Oklahoma City is the county seat of

Oklahoma County and the City limits encompass a land area of approximately 621 square miles.



ECONOMIC CONDITION

Oklahoma City's economy has followed the nation and state as its economy has slowed for a second consecutive

year. Job growth in Oklahoma City has remained positive through the national recession, but at 0.5% growth in

2001 and a projected growth of 0.6% for 2002, gains have been quite modest. According to economists at

Oklahoma State University, this marks the first time the Oklahoma City area has experienced consecutive years of

job growth below 1 percent since the last recession, when job gains reached 0.7% in 1991 and 0.9% in 1992.

Forecasters at Oklahoma State University and the University of Oklahoma predict job growth in Oklahoma City

to be modest again in 2003 with employment gains ranging from 0.9% to 1.6%.



Although the national economy affects Oklahoma City, the effects are usually less pronounced than in some areas

of the state. Through the national recession, the rate of hiring in the metro area exceeded the rate for the nation.

For the twelve months ending September 2002, Oklahoma City area job growth was 0.7%, well ahead of the 0.7%

decline nationwide. Most of the job losses occurred in four industry sectors: Manufacturing; Transportation,

Communication, and Public Utilities (TCPU); Wholesale Trade; and Government. Positive gains in hiring were

evident in the Services, Construction and Retail Trade sectors.



NATIONAL ECONOMY

The sharp economic slowdown at the national level in 2001 was expected to move into recovery in 2002.

However, while several indicators show that the nation has experienced gains in productivity, gross domestic

product and personal income, other indicators show that the economy is still languishing. The decline of the stock

market and lack of business investment and hiring continue to have a negative impact on the economy.



At this time, Global Insight (formerly DRI-WEFA), a national economic forecasting group, expects the US

economy to continue its slow recovery in 2003 and show a 3.2% growth rate in GDP by the end of the year.

Business investment in equipment and capital is expected to accelerate, while personal and residential investment

is forecast to decline. State and local government spending will be stagnant, though federal spending will remain

robust. Forecasted growth of consumption expenditures will decrease from 3.1% in 2002 to 2.9% in 2003. This

is due, in part, to a projected decline in consumer confidence. Current and forecasted weakness in consumer

confidence can signal a dampening of consumer spending growth, and this is expected in the first two quarters of

2003. Growth in GDP is projected to average 3% over the forecast period.



The Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 1.6% growth in 2002 and is expected to increase in the latter half of

2003, to an average of 2.8%. A significant factor relating to CPI in 2003 is the price of energy. While energy

prices have been fairly low throughout 2002, there are several forces taking shape that are driving energy prices

higher into 2003. Political unrest in major production areas, like Venezuela and the Middle East, are having an

impact on energy prices worldwide. This change in energy prices and weather conditions during the winter could

significantly impact the CPI. Global Insight forecasts that the CPI will average 2.5% annual growth through the

forecast period.



Forecasters at Global Insight and Economy.com predict the Federal Reserve will hold steady on monetary policy

through at least the summer of 2003, when it may tighten policy as the economic recovery gains momentum.

Global Insight predicts that the housing market will weaken in 2003, while economists at Oklahoma State





Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 9

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



University point out that the housing sector has yet to show clear signs of weakening. However, continued

instability in the labor market is expected throughout 2003, with national unemployment rates to hover close to

6% and peak near 6.5% in the summer, which may prove to be a drain on the housing market.



The national economy still shows signs of weakness on other fronts as well. Losses in the financial markets have

impacted individuals, the private sector and governments that are reliant on revenue from income taxes. From its

peak in March 2001, the stock market has lost nearly $7 trillion in value. This has impacted the availability of

discretionary income for millions of individuals and has also diminished capital gains receipts and tax revenues

from options income for the federal government and state governments across the nation. The potential for a war

in the Middle East and any terrorist attacks at home, could cause significant disruption to the US economy.



Yet, in light of all these factors, forecasters believe that the characteristics that make the US economy strong

remain in place. Productivity growth has withstood the economic slowdown, due to previous investments in

technology and the willingness of employers to part with workers in the current recession. While this is

detrimental to the unemployment rate in the short term, as the unit cost for production decreases and profit

margins increase, firms will eventually be willing to increase capital spending and hiring. Many economists

believe that productivity growth is a key factor governing the rise of living standards over time.



STATE ECONOMY

The state economy fared better than the national economy in 2002 in terms of unemployment rates and job

growth. Economists at Oklahoma State University have noted that the current relationship between the Oklahoma

economy and the national economy closely resembles the relationship that occurred in the 1990-1991 recession.

Then, as now, when national job creation was negative, Oklahoma experienced moderate positive growth.

Similarly, as the nation began to recover from recession and job growth grew at a fairly rapid pace, job creation in

Oklahoma was moderate.



Oklahoma employment growth for 2002 is projected to be 0.65%, while the projected US employment growth

rate is expected to decline by 0.83%. For 2003, forecasted employment growth is expected to increase slightly to

0.73%. Oklahoma is one of fourteen states to show positive gains in employment in 2002. As compared to the

region, Oklahoma fared better than New Mexico, Kansas, Arkansas, Texas and Missouri in job growth. The

unemployment rate was also favorable in Oklahoma as compared to the nation. Oklahoma’s unemployment

increase of 0.2%, from 4.0% one year earlier to 4.2% in 2002, was ranked as the 17th lowest nationally.



Based on Bureau of Labor Statistics data and forecasts from Oklahoma State University forecasters, the favorable

relative employment growth in Oklahoma is broad-based. Except federal government employment, the Oklahoma

economy outperformed the US economy in all employment sectors in 2002. Of particular interest is the fact that

Oklahoma has shown a slight increase in the Nondurable Goods Manufacturing sector whereas US employment is

expected to have declined over 6% in this sector. According to the Oklahoma Alliance for Manufacturing

Excellence, this is because Oklahoma has more smaller and medium-sized manufacturers that can more easily

adapt to changing conditions.



Forecasters predict that the state economy will recover along with the national economy, though not as quickly.

Oklahoma is expected to end 2002 with 0.8% growth in Gross State Product and finish calendar year 2003 with

1.5% growth in the Gross State Product. Personal income growth is estimated to be 4.2% for 2002, and

experience slower growth at 3.5% for 2003. Although wage rates are not expected to contract, the slower growth

in personal income is attributable to income from other sources (ie: investments, interest, rent, etc.).



The outlook for Oklahoma's 2003 economy is tempered, with real expansion in the services sector and contraction

in many of the remaining sectors. Some key indicators for the Oklahoma economy are:

• Real Gross State Product (GSP) growth is forecast to be 0.8% in 2002, reaching $87.9 billion. For

2003, GSP is forecast to increase 1.5%. Over the forecast period, GSP is expected to average 1.36%

annual growth.

• Mining and construction employment are projected to decline while services are expected to grow

about 2%.



Page 10 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



• Statewide unemployment rates for 2002 are expected to remain below the national average at 4.2%.



OKLAHOMA CITY ECONOMY

The Oklahoma City Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) includes Logan, Canadian, Oklahoma, Cleveland,

McClain, and Pottawatomie Counties and contains more than 31% of the state population and 33% of the state

labor force. The Oklahoma City area has 35% of the State’s nonagricultural employment and generates 33% of

statewide personal income.



Oklahoma City’s diverse economy has traditionally spared it from the more cyclical downturns seen on a national

level. This has held true during the current downturn because Oklahoma City experienced positive job growth

when the nation realized negative growth in 2002. Nonagricultural employment grew 0.47% in 2001 and is

projected to finish 2002 with .56% growth. Employment growth is expected to increase slightly in 2003 at a

0.93% rate. However, employment growth is expected to average 1.18% over the forecast period.



Job losses in the manufacturing sector are expected to ease in 2003. Following manufacturing employment

declines of 2.2% in 2000, 6.3% in 2001 and an estimated 5.5% in 2002, Oklahoma State University forecasters

predict that metro manufacturing will only contract another 0.4% in 2003. This decline is similar to that in the

national economy. Forecasters believe that the metropolitan areas of the state are more closely tied to the national

economy than the rural areas of Oklahoma. Job gains are again expected in the Services sector, which has

provided the bulk of job formation in the Oklahoma City metro area. Of the nearly 75,000 metro area jobs

created since 1995, more than 45,000 are in the Services sector. Oklahoma State University projects a 2.2%

increase or 4,000 new jobs in the services sector in both 2002 and 2003. As the seat of State government and the

state’s largest metropolitan area, Oklahoma City will be affected by weak government hiring in the coming year.



Key economic forecasts for the Oklahoma City MSA during 2003 are summarized as follows.

• Total personal income is projected to finish 2002 with a growth rate of 4.9% and a 4.4% growth rate

is anticipated in 2003.

• Oklahoma City MSA population is expected to reach 1,095,500 in 2003 and is projected to be

1,144,500 by 2007.

• Per capita personal income for the Oklahoma City MSA is projected to reach $28,751 in 2003, or

89% of the expected national level of $32,362. Per capita personal income is expected to average

3.64% annual growth over the forecast period.

• Oklahoma City MSA retail trade growth for 2003 is forecast at 3.81%. Retail trade is expected to

average 2.88% annual growth over the forecast period.



CONCLUSION

The sharp economic slowdown at the national level has contributed to a slowing of nonagricultural job growth in

the Oklahoma City area to 0.56% in 2002 and is expected to continue having positive, but slow growth with a

limited growth rate of 0.93% in 2003. A common theme for 2003 among both state and national economic

forecasters is the exaggerated component of uncertainty that is affecting the economy right now. The threat of

war, along with sluggish consumer and business confidence is weighing heavily on predictions for growth in the

near term. However, it is encouraging that Oklahoma City, though expected to have slow employment growth in

2003, will most likely return to previous growth rates closer to 3% during the forecast period.



Sources - Information sources for this section include: Global Insight, Inc DRI-WEFA; the Bureau of Economic Analysis, an agency of

the U.S. Department of Commerce; the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an agency of the U.S. Department of Labor; the 2003 Oklahoma

Economic Outlook prepared by Oklahoma State University's College of Business Administration, The Dismal Scientist on Economy.com;

Adam Wilmoth, “Slow Economic Growth Expected,” The Daily Oklahoman, Dec. 5, 2002.









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 11

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager









The City of

OKLAHOMA CITY









Page 12 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City









SECTION TWO



KEY ECONOMIC

INDICATORS









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 13

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



POPULATION

Changes in population can directly affect City revenues. Many governmental revenues vary according to

population growth. Population levels are indirectly related to issues such as employment, income and property

value.



The population of Oklahoma City and the surrounding suburbs has grown steadily over the past three decades.

The City of Oklahoma City is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.0% through the year 2010. The

projection for 2003 is 1.0% growth for the Oklahoma City MSA. An increasing population trend is considered

favorable. However, as the population grows, demand for services is likely to follow.









Oklahoma City Population

Corporate and Metropolitan Area



1,200



1,000



800

Thousands









600



400



200



0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2005 2010

est. est.

OKC MSA

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, estimates are from

Oklahoma Department of Commerce









Page 14 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



POPULATION COMPOSITION

The composition of the City’s population is a determinant of which services are needed. The population of

Oklahoma City, the State of Oklahoma and the United States as a whole is growing older. The graph below

depicts the comparison of three age categories of the population: (1) persons 0-19, (2) persons 20–59 and (3)

persons 60+. As shown below, the age distribution of Oklahoma City closely mirrors the national distribution.

Therefore, things like health care and other social services needed on the national level could impact the City in the

same way.









2000 Population

Breakdown by Age Group

100%

15% 17% 16%



80%





60% 54%

57% 55%



40%





20%

28% 29% 29%



0%

OKC State U.S.



0-19 20-59 60+

Source: U.S. Census Bureau









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 15

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



INFLATION

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban

consumers for a fixed market basket of consumer goods and services. The CPI provides a way for consumers to

compare what the market basket of goods and services costs this month with what the same market basket cost a

month or a year ago. The CPI reflects spending patterns for each of two population groups: All Urban Consumers

(CPI-U) and Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The CPI-U represents about 80% of the total

U.S. population.



Each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) surveys retail establishments throughout the U.S. and gathers

price information on thousands of items. These items are then put into one of the 200 expenditure categories and

weighted by their importance. Further aggregations are done until an overall CPI number is produced. The CPI is

comprised of eight different categories: food, housing, apparel, transportation, medical care, recreation, education

and miscellaneous. Stability in price level is generally beneficial and continued low rates of inflation indicate a

positive trend. Changes in CPI will typically be recognized by similar changes in retail sales.









Consumer Price Index





4.0%

3.4%

3.5%

2.8% 2.8%

Percent Change









3.0%

2.3% 2.2%

2.5%

2.0% 1.6% 1.6%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Est 2003

Proj



Calendar Year



Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for All Urban Consumers

2002 Estimate and 2003 Projection: Global Insight









Page 16 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



PERSONAL INCOME

Personal income is one measure of a community’s ability to purchase goods and services; the higher the per capita

income, the more property taxes and sales taxes the City can potentially generate. If income is distributed evenly,

a higher per capita income will usually mean a lower dependency on government services. According to

economists, per capita income growth is a primary determinant in predicting retail sales growth. A decline in per

capita income results in loss of consumer purchasing power and can provide advance notice that businesses,

especially in the retail sector, will suffer a decline that can ripple through the rest of the City’s economy. Credit

rating firms use per capita income as an important measure of a City’s ability to meet its financial obligations.



Both personal income and population have increased over the measurement period, which is considered favorable.

This trend indicates Oklahoma City consumers’ purchasing power is improving.









Oklahoma City MSA

Per Capita Income



$26,000 $25,436

$25,000

$23,969

$24,000 $23,226

$23,000

$21,870

$22,000 $21,299

$20,789

$21,000

$20,000

$19,000

1995 1997 1998 1999

Source: U.S.1996 of Economic Analysis – OKC MSA

Bureau 2000

Calendar Year



Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis – OKC MSA









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 17

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



HOTEL/MOTEL OCCUPANCY RATES

If the economy is sluggish or declining, the demand for hotel and motel rooms usually goes down and occupancy

rates decrease. Conversely, if the economy is growing, demand for hotel and motel room rentals are usually high

resulting in high occupancy. This indicator can provide early warning of more serious economic problems.



Contrary to the nationwide trend, the hotel/motel industry in Oklahoma City has seen significant growth over the

past five years. According to Convention and Visitors Bureau officials, the number of hotel rooms has increased

from 10,000 to over 13,000. Even with this growth, the occupancy rate has remained steady over time.



For 2002, Oklahoma City’s occupancy rate of 68.8% is above Tulsa’s 55.9% according to data through November

2002. The latest data available for the national occupancy rate shows an average close to 60%.









Hotel/Motel Occupancy Rate



69.9%

70.0%

66.3%

64.2% 64.1%

65.0%

62.5%





60.0%

57.9%





55.0%





50.0%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002



Calendar Year

National Average 2000 – 72%, 2001 60.3%

Source: Oklahoma City Convention and Visitor’s Bureau









Page 18 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



UNEMPLOYMENT

The unemployment rate provides a measuring tool to gauge the stability of the local economy. If businesses are

not profitable, they often lay workers off or close down all together. In addition, unemployment impacts per

capita personal income that in turn influences the community’s ability to support its local business sector. An

increase in the unemployment rate can be a warning sign that overall economic activity and governmental

revenues may be on the decline. According to some economists, the unemployment rate is a good predictor of

sales tax growth.



Unemployment rates have increased over the past year. However, Oklahoma City’s unemployment rate of 3.8%

in November 2002 remains significantly lower than the United States rate of 5.7%.









Unemployment Rate

OKC MSA, State of Oklahoma and U.S.



7.0%



6.0%



5.0%



4.0%



3.0%



2.0%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Est. Proj.

Calendar Year - Annual Average

OKC State US



Year 2002 amount through November 2002

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 19

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



JOB GROWTH

New jobs to employ the community’s citizens measure the health of the local business sector. In addition, job

growth impacts the overall personal income of the City. A decline in job growth can be an early warning sign that

overall economic activity and governmental revenue may be on the decline. For the past five years, the State has

seen a total of 80,000 new jobs while the Oklahoma City MSA has seen 46,000 (57% of the total State

employment increase). This trend benefits the City as it impacts the retail sector sales tax base along with housing

development.









Job Growth

OKC & State of Oklahoma

50



45



40

OKC State

35



30

Thousands









25



20



15



10



5



0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Est. 2003 Proj.



Calendar Year

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics









Page 20 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



EMPLOYMENT COMPOSITION

The national trend is towards a greater level of service sector jobs, and Oklahoma City is following this trend.

Over the last twenty years, the percent of jobs within the mining sector, which includes the oil and gas industry

has decreased approximately 75%, while service sector positions have increased 120%. Oklahoma City has

become less reliant on oil and gas mining and more on services, therefore, less exposed to the boom and bust

cycles of the oil and gas sectors.



While the service industry growth is beneficial, on average, most service sector jobs commonly have a lower level

of pay. Low wages impact the City’s per capita income and can result in lower retail sales decreasing sales tax

revenues. However, is also includes some higher paying jobs in the legal, health care, and educational services

industries that can have the opposite effect.









OKC Employment Composition

Non-Farm Employment

35%



30%



25%

Percent of Total









20%



15%



10%



5%



0%

Mining Services Mfg. Govt. Trade Misc.

Employment Sector



1982 Total Employment 432,300

1992 Total Employment 437,700

2002 Total Employment 543,620

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2002 data based on monthly average through Sept. 2002









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 21

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager









The City of

OKLAHOMA CITY









Page 22 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City









SECTION THREE



CITY COMPARISONS









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 23

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



CITY COMPARISONS

For many years, the City of Oklahoma City has utilized data from other municipalities as a factor in determining

pay and benefit levels for employees. It is imperative that the City continues to review practices of other “peer”

cities in order to meet customer demands and provide the best services available at the most efficient cost. While

Oklahoma City utilizes this group of cities for employee benefits and salary comparisons, one must look at each

cities’ own economic environment in order to understand how the cities compare. The following graphs depict

where Oklahoma City stands compared to other cities. The cities in the comparisons include: Austin, Tucson,

Nashville, San Antonio, Kansas City, Omaha and Tulsa. Data from all of the cities, with the exception of San

Antonio, are used as a factor in determining cost of living adjustments for employees. One unique aspect to

consider is all of these cities, with the exception of Tulsa, use property taxes for operations. In addition, these

cities can increase property taxes (with some limitations) without an election. Oklahoma City does not use

property taxes for operating purposes, only for the retirement of debt and the payment of judgments.



POPULATION

The graph below shows that the Kansas City metropolitan area has the largest population with over 1.7 million

citizens, while Omaha has the lowest metropolitan area population with 717,000. Oklahoma City is below the

average of 1.1 million.









Metropolitan Area Population

2,500







2,000

1,776

1,592

1,500

Thousands









1,250 1,231

1,083

1,000 844 803

717



500







0

Austin Tuscon Nashville San Antonio Kansas City Omaha OKC Tulsa

City

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000









Page 24 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



COST OF LIVING

The American Chamber of Commerce Research Association (ACCRA) has developed a cost-of-living index for

cities. The cost-of-living index is published on a quarterly basis, and the third quarter of 2002 is the most recent

data. The cost-of-living index includes various types of expenses such as: grocery, utilities, transportation,

housing and miscellaneous goods and services. The chart below provides the composite index. The Cost of

Living for Oklahoma City is below all the cities in this comparison except San Antonio and Omaha. In addition,

Oklahoma City’s cost of living is 10.7% below the national average. An index amount of 100 represents the

national average









Cost of Living

110.0





103.3

102.2



100.0

95.5

93.4



90.1

89.2 89.3

90.0

86.7









80.0

Austin Tuscon Nashville San Antonio Kansas City Omaha OKC Tulsa

City

Source: ACCRA 3rd Quarter 2002. Rank of 100 = National Average

Austin, Nashville and San Antonio are 2nd Quarter 2002.









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 25

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



UNEMPLOYMENT

Unemployment is one key economic indicator that provides a measurement of jobs in the local economy.

Oklahoma City unemployment has predominantly been below the state and national levels. Oklahoma City

currently has unemployment of 3.8%, which is lower than most of our peer cities, the State of Oklahoma’s rate of

4.2%, and below the United States unadjusted rate of 5.7% for November 2002.









Unemployment

6.0%





5.5%

5.1% 5.1%

5.0%

5.0% 4.8%

Percent









4.5% 4.4%





4.0% 3.8%





3.5% 3.4%

3.3%





3.0%

Austin Tuscon Nashville San Antonio Kansas City Omaha OKC Tulsa

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, August 2001 City

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Nov 2002









Page 26 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



PER CAPITA INCOME

Per Capita Income is one area in which Oklahoma City has typically faired poorly when compared with most

other peer cities. However, in recent years, Oklahoma City has gained some ground and no longer has the lowest

level of per capita income among peer cities. In this group, Austin has the highest per capita income with $32,039

approximately $6,603 or 25.7% more than Oklahoma City.









Per Capita Income

$35,000





$32,039 $31,765 $31,866

$30,962



$30,000

$28,775

Amount









$25,741 $25,436

$25,000

$23,705









$20,000

Austin Tuscon Nashville San Antonio Kansas City Omaha OKC Tulsa

City

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2000









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 27

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



MEDIAN EFFECTIVE BUYING INCOME

Also known as disposable or after tax income, median effective buying income is the amount of money the

average household has after paying taxes. Money income is the aggregate of wages, salaries, net farm and

nonfarm self-employment income, interest dividends, net rental and royalty income, Social Security and any other

retirement or disability payments. The Median Effective Buying Income is one of the key economic indicators

that the bond rating agencies review as it is a good indicator of wealth in the local economy.









Median Effective Buying Income

50,000 49,077









45,000

43,142

42,221

41,216

Amount









40,000



36,919

36,161



35,000 34,352

33,344







30,000

Austin - San Tuscon Nashville San Antonio Kansas City Omaha OKC Tulsa

Marcos

City

Source: Sales and Marketing Management: Effective Buying Income, 2002









Page 28 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



RELIANCE ON SALES TAX

In Oklahoma, sales tax is the primary funding mechanism for day-to-day operations. This is evident in the graph

below. Tulsa and Oklahoma City rank first and second when it comes to reliance on sales tax to support the

General Fund budget. With the exception of Omaha, the remaining cities utilize a greater portion of property

taxes to fund daily operations. Tucson and Kansas City do not rely on sales tax to support their General Funds

and Kansas City also levies an income tax on those who live and/or work in their city.









Reliance on Sales Tax



70%

63.0%



60% 56.6%





50% 45.0%



40%



30% 25.9% 24.6%



20% Source: CAFR as of June 30, 1999

12.0%

10%

0.0% 0.0%

0%

Austin Tuscon Nashville San Antonio Kansas City Omaha OKC Tulsa

City

General Fund Data based on FY 2003 budgets









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 29

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



SALES TAX PERFORMANCE

Sales tax on goods provides a large amount of revenues to municipalities. With the exception of Kansas City and

Nashville, all peer cities with sales taxes are showing growth in this revenue source. Oklahoma City and San

Antonio have the highest rates of sales tax growth from FY 2002 to budgeted FY 2003. The City of Nashville

and Davidson County are operated as a city-county government, while the other cities are municipal governments.

The growth below depicts budgeted and actual sales tax for each respective cities general fund.









Sales Tax Performance



175 FY 2001 FY 2002 FY 2003





150





125





100

Millions









75





50





25





0

Austin Nashville San Antonio Omaha OKC Tulsa

City

Data based on FY 2002-03 budget book. FY 01 is actual and FY 02 and 03 are budgeted amounts. Amounts reflect

General Fund portions only.









Page 30 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City









SECTION FOUR



OPERATING FUNDS

REVENUE/EXPENDITURE

HISTORY & ISSUES









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 31

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



CITY OPERATING BUDGET

Oklahoma City's Operating Budget consists of various revenue sources used to finance an extensive list of City

services. Most significant of these revenue sources is the General Sales Tax. More than 57% of the City's

projected $460 million in FY 2003 operating budget revenues will come from various types of tax collections.

Other major contributing revenue sources include fees and charges, franchises, municipal fines and internal

transfers.



The City's annual operating budget, excluding trusts, contains many unique funds. This chart demonstrates the

fund structure of the City's annual operating budget.









FEDERAL GRANT FUNDS INTERNAL SERVICE FUNDS

Emergency Shelter Information Technology

HOME Fleet Services

Enterprise Community Print Shop

CDBG Risk Management

Office of Workforce Development

Local Law Enforcement Block Grants







CITY

OPERATING

BUDGET





SPECIAL REVENUE FUNDS

Public Safety Sales Tax

Zoo Sales Tax ENTERPRISE FUNDS

Public Safety Equip.Sales Tax Airports

Public Safety Equip. Use Tax Water & Wastewater

Street & Alley Solid Waste

Court Administration & Training Drainage

Emergency (E-911) Parking & Transit

MAPS Operations Fund

OCMAPS Sales Tax





GENERAL FUND

General Sales Tax

Use Tax

Other Taxes

Franchises

Licenses, Permits & Fees

Other Services & Charges

Administrative Charges

Fines

Transfers









Page 32 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



WHAT DOES THE GENERAL FUND PAY FOR?

The General Fund provides services for which adequate fees and charges cannot be levied, or are better funded

through the general taxing authority of the City. Some of these core services and their other funding sources for

operations are summarized as follows:



Public Safety - 66% of operating funding for Police, Fire, E-911, Juvenile Justice and Courts is provided

through the General Fund. The majority of other funding for services is provided by a 3/4% limited

purpose sales tax earmarked for Police and Fire personnel and equipment. The Police and Fire Capital

Equipment Use Tax, E-911 fees and Court penalty assessments provide lesser amounts.



Public Services - 26% of operating funding for Public Works, Transit, Neighborhood Services and

Planning is provided through the General Fund. Other funding comes from Water/Wastewater,

Stormwater Drainage, Airport, Solid Waste and Transit fees. Water/Wastewater utility fees contribute the

largest portion.



Culture and Recreation - 43% of operating funding for Culture and Recreation is provided through the

General Fund. The Parks and Recreation Department, which also manages the Civic Center, is the main

recipient of General Fund revenue. Through a Chamber of Commerce contract, the Convention and

Visitors Bureau receives a portion to promote convention and tourism activity in the City. Other non-

General Fund funding sources include the permanent 1/8 cent Zoo limited purpose sales tax, the MAPS

Sales Tax Fund and the MAPS Operations Fund.



General Government Function - 72% of operating funding for the Office of the Mayor & City Council,

City Manager’s Office, Municipal Counselor’s Office, Personnel, City Clerk’s Office, Finance, City

Auditor’s Office and General Services is provided through the General Fund. Risk Management,

Information Technology and Equipment Services are funded through internal service charges. The

OCMAPS Sales Tax Fund provides funding for administration of the limited term, limited purpose,

OCMAPS Sales Tax.



Flexibility of the General Fund has proven to be a valuable asset to City leaders in creating and funding programs

and services, however; caution is required to ensure adequate resources remain available for the continuation of

these programs and services over the long-term.



The following subsections contain a discussion of each of the operating funds along with various trust funds. A

full examination of the General Fund can be found in Sections Five, Six, Seven and Eight. Fund balance fills the

gap where the charts indicate expenditures exceeding revenue. The charts are created on the basis of Generally

Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), which differs from the modified cash basis used for budgeting

purposes. This is to remain consistent with the City’s Comprehensive Annual Financial Report (CAFR).









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 33

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



AIRPORTS

Funding for the operation of the Airports Enterprise comes from monthly transfers from the Oklahoma City

Airport Trust. The Trust was created as a Public Trust on April 1, 1956, pursuant to Title 60 of the Oklahoma

Statutes, Section 176, on behalf of the City of Oklahoma City. The purpose of the Trust is to provide a means of

financing and administering the construction of airports and air navigation facilities of the City. The provisions of

the trust agreement provide that the Trust will lease, or otherwise manage, the related property and improvements

financed by the Trust. The Trust receives all revenues generated from related properties to repay revenue bonds,

or other debt instruments incurred by the Trust, plus costs and expenses incidental to the management, operation,

maintenance and conservation of the Trust.









Airports Operating Revenue & Expenditure History



$55,000



$50,000



$45,000

Thousands









$40,000



$35,000



$30,000



$25,000



$20,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Fiscal Year





Revenues Expenditures



Includes combined Trust and Cash Fund data per CAFR. Accounting Basis-GAAP.









Chart contains operating revenues, expenditures and transfers to and from other funds for trend

analysis of those revenues only. Chart is not intended to be a complete analysis of revenues and

expenditures. Non-Operating revenues and expenditures such as investment income and debt

service expense are not included.









Page 34 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



COURT ADMINISTRATION AND TRAINING

The Court Administration and Training Fund was created in 1986 to fund law enforcement training through the

use of fines received by the Oklahoma City Municipal Court system. State laws require a $7.00 penalty

assessment ($3.00 for Automated Fingerprint Identification System support and $4.00 for CLEET) to be added to

any fine of $10.00 or more. Oklahoma City, because it has an approved basic law enforcement academy, retains

$2.00 of the penalty assessment and a 2% administration fee for handling the penalty assessment and collections.

Monies received in these funds are utilized by three separate departments in three sub funds. The Departments

are Police, Courts and Municipal Counselor. The Police Department utilizes the fund for police training. The

Courts Department utilizes the fund primarily as a pass through to receive and forward fees due to the state. The

Municipal Counselor receives a small portion of the fines for legal training.









Court Operating Revenue & Expenditure History



$1,600

$1,500

$1,400

$1,300

$1,200

Thousands









$1,100

$1,000

$900

$800

$700

$600

$500

$400

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Fiscal Year



Revenues Expenditures





Fund data per CAFR. Accounting Basis-GAAP.









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 35

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

The Emergency Management Fund was established in FY 1990 to fund operations for the E-911 emergency

telephone and dispatch system, and for disaster preparedness and warning programs. The budget combines a

subsidy from the General Fund, projected revenues from a 3% tariff charged to households and businesses

accessing the system through their community phone service, fund balance and interest earned by the fund.



The rise in E-911 calls from wireless phones is expected to be an on-going issue for this fund. City staff is

currently collaborating with the Oklahoma Municipal League (OML), the Association of Central Oklahoma

Governments (ACOG) and the City of Tulsa to address the costs of implementation and operation of wireless E-

911 call enhancements.









Emergency Management Operating Revenue & Expenditure

History



$5,000

$4,500

$4,000

$3,500

Thousands









$3,000

$2,500

$2,000

$1,500

$1,000

$500

$0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Fiscal Year



Revenues Expenditures General Fund Subsidy



Accounting Basis-GAAP.









Page 36 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



FIREFIGHTING AND FIRE-RESCUE SERVICES, FACILITIES OR EQUIPMENT

The Fire-Fighting and Fire-Rescue Services, Facilities or Equipment Tax Fund was established in FY 1989-1990.

Funding is provided through a dedicated 3/4 cent sales tax approved by City voters for Fire and Police services,

thus; the Fund receives one-half of the revenues collected through the special sales tax. Personal Services

expenses include pay and benefits for a limited number of fire support personnel, and a proportionate share of all

firefighters’ pay and benefits. Other expenditures are used to support enhancement of existing programs and for

the implementation of new programs including new vehicles, facilities and equipment. In recent years, this fund

has not been able to add new projects. This is due to the high number of uniform employees who are supported

by this fund, and the issue of personnel costs growing faster than the revenues. Projected revenues for FY 2004

will not be sufficient to meet estimated expenditures. Section eight within this document addresses the projected

shortfall.









Firefighting Tax Operating Revenue & Expenditure

History

$28,000



$27,000



$26,000

Thousands









$25,000



$24,000



$23,000



$22,000



$21,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Fiscal Year



Revenues Expenditures



Accounting Basis-GAAP.









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 37

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



GENERAL FUND

The General Fund is used to account for all funds received and disbursed for general municipal government

purposes including all assets, liabilities, reserves, fund balances, revenues and expenditures that are not accounted

for in any other fund. The General Fund is the largest source of day-to-day service delivery. Sales tax, at roughly

57% of revenue, is the primary funding source for the General Fund. Where expenditures have exceeded revenue,

the City has utilized fund balance. In FY 2002 revenues fell below expenditures for the first time in several years.

Approximately $5 million in fund balance was used to meet expenditures.









General Fund Operating Revenue & Expenditure History



$270



$260



$250



$240

MIllions









$230



$220



$210



$200



$190

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Fiscal Year



Revenues Expenditures





Accounting Basis-GAAP.









Page 38 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



GOLF COURSES

The City provides five municipal golf courses to the citizens. Costs of providing goods and services to the

general public is financed or recovered on a continuing basis primarily through user charges and

intergovernmental subsidies. On occasion, Golf Courses issue revenue bonds and utilize intergovernmental

subsidies to fund capital outlays such as renovation/refurbishment and to purchase golf carts.









Golf Course Operating Revenue & Expenditure History



$9,000

$8,000

$7,000

$6,000

Thousands









$5,000

$4,000

$3,000

$2,000

$1,000

$0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Fiscal Year



Revenues Expenditures General Fund Subsidy



Accounting Basis-GAAP.









Chart contains operating revenues, expenditures and transfers to and from other funds for trend

analysis of those revenues only. Chart is not intended to be a complete analysis of revenues and

expenditures. Non-Operating revenues and expenditures such as investment income and debt

service expense are not included.









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 39

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



MAPS OPERATIONS FUND

The MAPS Use Tax was a companion tax levy to the MAPS Sales Tax approved by City voters on December 14,

1993. The tax provided a levy of 1.0% on the sale of goods not subject to sales tax. The MAPS Use Tax went

into effect on January 1, 1994, and is in addition to the 2 7/8% General Use Tax. The tax expired on June 30,

1999. Funds collected from the additional levy are accounted for separately and are to be used for operating,

maintaining and replacing capital, as needed on any or all of the nine major MAPS projects. The MAPS

Operations Fund budget reflects only the funding for adopted expenditures. The MAPS Operations Fund is

primarily being utilized to maintain the Bricktown canal area, dredging on the North Canadian River, and to

establish capital replacement accounts for the other projects. The revenue shown in fiscal years 2000-2002 is

primarily interest income. The spike in expenditures in FY 2002 is due to costs associated with the river

development and the purchase the scoreboard system for the Ford Center Arena.









MAPS Operations Fund Operating Revenue & Expenditure

History

$6,000



$5,250



$4,500



$3,750

Thousands









$3,000



$2,250



$1,500



$750



$0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Fiscal Year



Revenues Expenditures





Accounting Basis-GAAP.









Page 40 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



POLICE SERVICES, FACILITIES OR EQUIPMENT

The Police Services, Facilities or Equipment Tax Fund was established in FY 1990. Funding is provided through

a dedicated 3/4 cent sales tax approved by City voters in FY 1989. The Fund receives one-half of the revenues

collected through the special sales tax and additional revenue from security contracts. Personal Services expenses

include pay and benefits for some police support personnel and a proportionate share of all police officers’ pay

and benefits.









Police Tax Operating Revenue & Expenditure History



$28,000



$27,000



$26,000



$25,000

Thousands









$24,000



$23,000



$22,000



$21,000



$20,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Fiscal Year



Revenues Expenditures



Accounting Basis-GAAP.









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 41

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT

The Solid Waste Management Division was moved from the Public Works Department to the Water Department

as part of the FY 1998 budget. The Division functions as an enterprise responsible for the supervision,

coordination and control of various work activities that contribute to the health, welfare and beautification of the

community through a high level of refuse collection services.



The Solid Waste Management Cash Fund, formerly the Sanitation Cash Fund, was established to track the

revenues and expenditures of refuse collection activities. In FY 1999, receipt of revenue was changed to simplify

operations. All revenues related to Solid Waste Management operations are deposited into the Oklahoma City

Environmental Assistance Trust (OCEAT). The Trust transfers a portion of the revenues to the Solid Waste cash

fund for operational costs. A rate increase was approved by City Council on July 23, 2002 and went into effect in

FY 2003.









Solid Waste Operating Revenue & Expenditure History





$34,000



$32,000



$30,000

Thousands









$28,000



$26,000



$24,000



$22,000



$20,000



$18,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Fiscal Year



Revenues Expenditures





Includes combined Trust and Cash Fund data per CAFR. Accounting Basis-GAAP.







Chart contains operating revenues, expenditures and transfers to and from other funds for trend

analysis of those revenues only. Chart is not intended to be a complete analysis of revenues and

expenditures. Non-Operating revenues and expenditures such as investment income and debt

service expense are not included.









Page 42 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



STORMWATER DRAINAGE

Council established the Stormwater Drainage Utility on June 13, 1995, to address federal mandates governing

National Pollution Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) programs. The utility is responsible for funding the

planning and implementation of strategies for improving the quality of storm and other runoff waters. The Utility

is an enterprise, with operating revenues generated from a drainage fee that is charged per household or business.

Charges for commercial entities are based on the estimated impact of runoff for new construction. Fees are billed

monthly along with water, wastewater and solid waste fees. The fund provides for maintenance of stormwater

drainage facilities and drainage capital improvements. In FY 2001 and FY 2002 fund balance was used for these

purposes. Staff is currently researching a possible rate adjustment to address this issue.









Stormwater Drainage Operating Revenue & Expenditure

History



$12,000

$11,000

$10,000

$9,000

Thousands









$8,000

$7,000

$6,000

$5,000

$4,000

$3,000

$2,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Fiscal Year



Revenues Expenditures





Includes Cash Fund data per CAFR. Accounting Basis-GAAP.









Chart contains operating revenues, expenditures and transfers to and from other funds for trend

analysis of those revenues only. Chart is not intended to be a complete analysis of revenues and

expenditures. Non-Operating revenues and expenditures such as investment income and debt

service expense are not included.









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 43

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



STREET AND ALLEY

The taxes that support the operating budget of the Street and Alley Cash Fund are levied by the State of

Oklahoma, and include the Motor Fuel Excise Tax and the Vehicle Tax. Oklahoma City receives a percentage of

those revenues from the State, based on population. In addition, the General Fund provides a subsidy to the Street

and Alley Cash Fund. These funds are used for street construction and maintenance.









Street and Alley Operating Revenue & Expenditure

History

$20,000



$17,500



$15,000

Thousands









$12,500



$10,000



$7,500



$5,000



$2,500



$0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Fiscal Year



Revenues Expenditures General Fund Subsidy



Accounting Basis-GAAP.









Page 44 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



TRANSIT AND PARKING

The Central Oklahoma Transportation and Parking Authority (COTPA) was created in 1966 as a Public Trust

pursuant to Title 60 of the Oklahoma Statutes, Section 176. The purpose of the Authority is to provide a means of

financing municipal public transportation services and functions. The trust indenture provides that the Authority

will acquire and operate the transportation service and equipment, receive all revenue generated from those

services, pay the debt service requirements on revenue bonds issued by the Authority, pay all operating expenses

and finance future improvements. The Authority does not have the power to levy taxes.



COTPA was broken into two distinct functions by Council action in September 1989. The Transit and Parking

Cash Fund was established as a direct result of the reorganization of COTPA, in which administrative functions of

the Authority became part of the City organization. The reorganization also separated Parking and Transit

Services into two distinct programs identified separately in the cash fund. From FY 1994 through FY 1997, the

Parking portion of this fund was part of the General Fund. The Parking Fund was again recognized as a distinct

cash fund as part of the FY 1998 budget. On April 27, 2001, the COTPA Board of Trustees (Board) approved a

series of price increases for the COTPA parking system that took effect July 1, 2001 and July 1, 2002. Part of this

increase will be used to fund the construction of a new Galleria Parking Garage. Fare increases for the public

transportation system were approved by the Board and took effect in FY 2003.









Chart contains operating revenues, expenditures and transfers to and from other funds for trend

Transit and Parking Operating Revenue & analysis of revenues and

analysis of those revenues only. Chart is not intended to be a completeExpenditure

expenditures. Non-Operating revenues and expenditures such as investment income and debt

service expense are not included. History



$30,000



$25,000



$20,000

Thousands









$15,000



$10,000



$5,000



$0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Fiscal Year



Revenues Expenditures General Fund Subsidy

Includes combined Trust and Cash Fund data per CAFR. Accounting Basis-GAAP.









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 45

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



WATER AND WASTEWATER

The Water and Wastewater Cash Fund was established in 1988 by the City Council for the purpose of identifying

operating revenues and expenditures of the Water and Wastewater Utilities Department. The funds provide for

the treatment of water and wastewater, management of plant facilities, management of the water and wastewater

distribution systems and the maintenance of accurate billing records for water, sewer, refuse collection and

drainage. Operating revenues are first collected by the Oklahoma City Water Utilities Trust (OCWUT), and then,

on a monthly basis, transferred to the Water and Wastewater Cash Fund for operation of the Water and

Wastewater Department. OCWUT was established in 1960 to finance water and wastewater system projects. The

Trust's financial activities are blended into the Water and Wastewater Enterprise Funds in the graph below. The

2002 revenue increase is attributed to an increase of $5,885,000 in OCWUT water charges and an increase of

$3,284,000 in OCWUT wastewater charges.









Water and Wastewater Operating Revenue &

Expenditure History



$115,000

$110,000

$105,000

$100,000

Thousands









$95,000

$90,000

$85,000

$80,000

$75,000

$70,000

$65,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Fiscal Year



Revenues Expenditures

Includes combined Trust and Cash Fund data per CAFR. Accounting Basis-GAAP.









Chart contains operating revenues, expenditures and transfers to and from other funds for trend

analysis of those revenues only. Chart is not intended to be a complete analysis of revenues and

expenditures. Non-Operating revenues and expenditures such as investment income and debt

service expense are not included.









ZOO

The Oklahoma City Zoological Trust is a public trust of which the City of Oklahoma City is the sole beneficiary.

The Trust operates the Oklahoma City Zoo under a lease and operating agreement with the City. On July 17,

1990, City voters approved a one-eighth cent sales tax levy for the limited purpose of funding the Oklahoma City

Zoo. The Oklahoma City Zoo Tax Fund was created to collect all revenues pursuant to the Zoo tax levy. An



Page 46 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



ordinance provides that Zoo Sales Tax funds will only be used for funding the following: the establishment,

maintenance, replacement, and expansion of zoological parks, gardens, and entertainment facilities; the

acquisition, maintenance, and replacement of real property, personal property, and buildings; the operational

expenses, education research and program expenses, conservation program expenses, and all other expenses

deemed necessary or advisable by the Oklahoma City Zoological Trust in connection with the operation of the

Oklahoma City Zoo.









Zoo Tax Operating Revenue & Expenditure History



$14,000





$13,000





$12,000

Thousands









$11,000





$10,000

Includes combined Trust and Cash Fund data per CAFR. Accounting Basis-GAAP.



$9,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Fiscal Year



Revenues Expenditures









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 47

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager









The City of

OKLAHOMA CITY









Page 48 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City









SECTION FIVE



GENERAL FUND REVENUES

TRENDS & FORECAST









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 49

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



FACTORS INFLUENCING GENERAL FUND REVENUES

Many factors influence City revenue collections and, consequently, the quality and extent of services provided to

citizens. Some of these factors are directly within City government's ability to control. Examples of such internal

factors include actions taken by citizens and City leaders to establish, abolish, increase, or decrease local taxes,

charges or fines.



Although such actions may positively or adversely affect general and special revenue funds, various complex

external factors also influence City revenue collections. Variables considered external, beyond City government's

direct ability to control, include population growth and the general condition of the national, state and local

economies. Important among such external factors are federal and state actions that have regulated municipal

revenue sources and reduced or eliminated certain grants to municipalities.



INTERNAL FACTORS

The citizens, City Council and City Manager of Oklahoma City are, in varying capacities, legally empowered to

regulate most general and special fund revenue sources. Specific legal procedures are required to establish or

abolish revenue sources and raise or lower applicable rates.



The following narratives summarize major factors that affect City revenues that are internally controlled by City

government and its citizens.



Citizen Authority Over Taxes: Perhaps the most highly visible revenue sources that can be controlled by City

leaders and citizens are local taxes. With the consent of the Mayor and City Council by ordinance and with voter

approval, City taxes can be established to meet targeted or general community needs. Prominent examples

include the establishment of the Zoo, Public Safety, Public Safety Equipment, and Oklahoma City Metropolitan

Area Schools limited-purpose sales taxes. Approval of the City Council and citizenry is also required for the

establishment of most public utility franchises, such as those currently granted to Oklahoma Gas & Electric,

Oklahoma Natural Gas and Cox Cable.



City Council Authority Over Other Revenue Sources: The Mayor and City Council are empowered with direct

and exclusive control over many City revenue sources including certain other taxes, fines and charges associated

with permits, licenses and services. Ordinances may be enacted granting nonexclusive franchises, establishing

new or modifying existing fines or charges, such as the establishment of vending stamps to regulate coin operated

machines or the recent increase in the fines for certain misdemeanor crimes. The City Council may pass

ordinances to impose charges for regulatory functions of the City, such as occupational licenses, animal shelter

fees or building permits.



Rates for core City services are frequently established by the City Council, or by proxy as members of a City

trust, as part of the City's annual budget process. Examples of such actions include: the implementation of new

services and the establishment of rates for municipal solid waste collection and disposal; drainage fees paid by

residential and commercial property owners; and rate adjustments to enhance water quality and wastewater

treatment. The City Council may perceive the need to establish such fees to upgrade operational standards or to

support an existing service that the General Fund can no longer sustain.



Although such service issues can legally be addressed independent of the budget cycle, concurrent development

of the annual operating budget with new or expanded programs creates an opportunity for City leaders to better

define community priorities and redirect funds as needed to attain City goals.



City Manager Authority: For a limited number of revenue sources, the City Manager is solely authorized by

position to establish and enforce charges. It is rare, however, that such action is taken without the expressed

consent of City Council.









Page 50 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



EXTERNAL FACTORS

Many factors affect local government revenues that are simply beyond the City's direct ability to control.

Examples of such factors are population, the general state of the economy and trends in public policy and private

industry.



City leaders and officials, through careful management and analysis, can influence many external factors and

therefore encourage private development. Such actions have an indirect, yet valuable, effect on municipal

revenue growth. For example, a city's population may be increased or decreased dramatically through annexation

or de-annexation, or special incentives may be established that attract targeted new industries to a city.

Ultimately, however, City government's role is to provide an adequate and attractive foundation for community

growth by preserving the peace, maintaining a sound infrastructure and by improving the overall quality of life.



It is the exception when significant population growth or concentrated private development can be credited to any

one direct local government action. Conversely, it is illogical to blame an erratic or recessed economy on a single

local government action.



Fortunately, the outlook for external factors affecting City revenues is generally good over the forecast period, as

compared to the economic difficulties experienced in recent years. During the past few years, Oklahoma City's

population has grown at a slow but steady pace, the local economy in general, has become more diversified and

employment rates have increased. All of these factors contribute favorably to potential revenue collections for the

City, however; given the structure of our tax system, these areas of growth do not directly translate into greater

revenue growth.



The following section briefly touches on several external factors that significantly affect City revenues.



Population: Population is a basic external factor that directly impacts City revenues. Population growth in the

City's Metropolitan Statistical Area, and beyond, results in increased retail trade and elevated sales and use tax

collections. Oklahoma City is the major retail trade center in the State with an estimated MSA population of 1.1

million people.



Growth within Oklahoma City's corporate limits increases municipal franchise collections as new utility

customers are added to the consumer base. Other key revenue sources, such as building permits, are also

contingent upon continued population growth within corporate Oklahoma City.



Local Economy: Oklahoma City's local economy has recently enjoyed greater economic diversification than at

any previous time, and it is this diversification that has helped it weather the recent economic downturn.

Oklahoma City serves as the seat of state government and has several significant federal installations including

Tinker Air Force Base and the Mike Monroney Aeronautical Center. Key factors that contribute to the health of

Oklahoma City's economy are summarized below.



• While national employment growth was negative in 2002, total non-agricultural employment in the MSA

is expected to have reached 545,900 during the fourth quarter of 2002, an increase of .56% over the prior

year.



• The fourth quarter 2002 unemployment rate for the Oklahoma City MSA is estimated at 3.8%. This

compares favorably to estimates of 6.0% for the nation.



• For the metropolitan area, growth in retail and wholesale trade during 2002 is estimated at 5.05%. Retail

trade is forecasted to increase by 3.99% by the latter half of 2003. Retail trade over the forecast period is

expected to average 4% growth annually.



• The 3rd quarter 2002 cost-of-living index for the Oklahoma City MSA remained attractive at

approximately 10.7% less than the national average. Grocery and housing costs have consistently

been well below regional and national levels.



Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 51

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager





Favorable local economic indicators, however, do not necessarily translate into significant increases in City

revenues. Oklahoma City’s economy, for example, is becoming increasingly reliant on services and less on

manufacturing and retail. Since most services are generally exempt from sales tax, general economic health may

not generate significant, or even average, levels of sales tax growth.



Regional and National External Factors: A number of regional and national issues are currently pending that may

have serious impacts on City revenues. These factors include trends in private industry, as well as a large number

of legislative issues at the state and federal level. Examples of these issues are cited below.



Tax Reform – There is a new administration coming into the state government in 2003, and the state is

facing serious financial challenges, cutting nearly $600 million from its FY 2004 budget. The state

legislature will undoubtedly be looking at revenue options that could affect cities. There are also several

proposals addressing the way taxable sales are sourced, and the definition of point of sale. The City

continues to closely monitors these proposals to determine how they will affect Oklahoma City’s tax

base.



Deregulating Public Utilities - Along with many other state governments, the State of Oklahoma has

been examining deregulation of natural gas and electricity providers. What happened nationally in the

communications industry fifteen years ago may be analogous to the deregulation of these utilities locally.

The likely outcome will be increased competition, lower rates and dramatic shifts in the way utilities are

provided to end-users. Such changes may have radical effects on City franchise and sales tax revenues.



Reduced Federal & State Support to Cities - Federal grant monies have been drastically reduced and,

in some instances, eliminated altogether. Oklahoma City has experienced an increase in un-funded

federal and state mandates, and yet has seen grant revenues from these entities decrease for services such

as transit and job training programs. Tight budgets at these levels of government, combined with the

prevailing trend to push program services from the federal to the state and local levels, suggest further

reductions in City grant revenues while community expectations for the same level of service remain.









Page 52 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



REVENUE OVERVIEW

The General Fund has greater flexibility and diversity than other City funds since it consists of many various

sources. The City Council has the authority to determine there is a need to increase or decrease General Fund

service fees or fines, and can respond to changing economic or social conditions by establishing or abolishing

specific General Fund revenue sources.



As demonstrated on the graph below, City taxes generate the majority of all General Fund Revenues. Significant

revenue sources for the General Fund include Taxes, Franchises, Interest and Fines.



FY 2002-2003 GENERAL FUND REVENUE

BY REVENUE SOURCE





Use Tax 5.8% Other Taxes 2.1%



Franchise Fees 9.6%



Lic., Permits, Fees

Sales Tax 56.6% 2.5%



Fines 4.8%

Interest 2.4%

Service Charges



Other .5%

Administrative

Charges 4.7%



Transfers 5.2%

Fund Balance 3.3%



TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE BUDGET

$265,577,122









With the City’s current revenue mix, continued stability of the General Fund is significantly contingent upon

growth in tax revenues, and sales taxes in particular. Sales tax growth has been positive, but the growth rate

slowed significantly in FY 2002. The historical average of sales tax growth for the City has been close to 4.5%

for both the eight year and five year averages. In FY 02, sales tax grew only 2.4% and current projections

through the remainder of FY 2003 show sales tax growth nearly flat at roughly 0.7% growth. The expectation for

FY 2004 is to return to 3% growth in sales tax revenue, which is a reasonable rate of growth, given that it is more

conservative than our historical average but greater than the growth we are currently experiencing. It should be

noted that the risks to economic recovery outlined in the Economic Overview section of this report could have a

direct negative impact on sales tax revenue. While the City should do all that it can to reduce its dependency on

sales tax revenues, it is expected that overall General Fund revenue performance in the forecasted future will

closely correspond to the anticipated growth rate of the sales tax.



Considering all revenue sources, it is likely that overall General Fund recurring revenue growth will average

approximately 3.4% over the five-year forecast period. While this growth rate may be substantial enough to





Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 53

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



remain consistent with the anticipated rate of inflation, it may not suffice to meet growth rates in City

expenditures if they continue to accelerate at current rates.



The following graph denotes actual, budgeted and anticipated General Fund revenue collections through the

forecast period. Budgeted fund balance is excluded from this illustration as it does not represent a recurring

source of City revenue.



All General Fund Recurring Revenues

Actual & Projected Revenues

$300

$290

$280

$270

Millions









$260

$250

$240

$230

$220

$210

$200

Actual Actual Actual Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected

FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY08





The various sources of General Fund revenue are summarized in the remainder of this section, with historic trends

and projected performance. Due to its significant contributions to the revenue base, additional information is

included regarding the sales tax. Other General Fund revenue sources such as the Use Tax, Other Taxes and

Franchises will follow.



SALES TAX REVENUES

City sales taxes are the largest single source of revenue for Oklahoma City. Sales taxes are applied to most retail

transactions as provided by State law and collected by local vendors, who then remit the revenues to the

Oklahoma Tax Commission. The City maintains agreements with the Oklahoma Tax Commission for

administration and enforcement services associated with Sales and Use Taxes. The City receives revenues one

month after receipt by the Oklahoma Tax Commission, that is two months following the date of the taxable

transaction for smaller sales tax remitters. In FY 2002, the Tax Commission implemented SB 984, which requires

vendors over a certain dollar amount to submit tax receipts 15 days earlier, and allows them to submit an estimate

that can later be adjusted. Thus, the City receives some revenue approximately 45 days after the transaction and

some revenue 60 days after the transaction.



The City levies a total of 3.875% in sales tax. Combined with the State levy of 4.5%, the total state and municipal

sales tax rate charged within corporate Oklahoma City limits is 8.375%. Canadian County assesses an additional

levy of 0.35% for purchases made within their jurisdiction. Pottawatomie County assesses an additional 1.00%

sales tax levy.



The 2% General Sales Tax accounts for 56.6% of the City's General Fund. During recent years, however,

specific community needs have been targeted with critical new programs. As the General Fund was clearly

incapable of fully funding these programs, new revenue sources were needed. On four separate occasions voters

approved additional sales taxes to fund specific municipal services and programs. These sales taxes are

summarized as follows.



The 0.50% Police/Fire Equipment Tax is a limited-term levy (expiring February 28, 2003) that

finances Police and Fire mobile equipment, a new City-wide trunked radio system, computer aided



Page 54 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



dispatch systems, new records management systems, police helicopter, new mobile data terminals and

upgrades of the emergency warning system.



The 0.50% Oklahoma City Metropolitan Area Public Schools (OCMAPS) Sales Tax is a

limited-term levy (effective January 1, 2002 and expiring March 31, 2003) that finances the

construction and improvements to 24 school districts located within the Oklahoma City limits. In

April 2003, the rate for the OCMAPS tax increases to 1.00%, which expires in 2009.



• The 0.75% Public Safety Sales Tax is a permanent levy, ratified on June 20, 1989, dedicated to fund

Police and Fire services, facilities and equipment.



• The 0.125% Zoo Sales Tax is a permanent levy, ratified on July 17, 1990, that funds capital and other

expenses relating to the Oklahoma City Zoo.



Revenue Trends: Substantial increases in total sales tax revenues have mostly resulted from the addition of the

dedicated-purpose levies. Additionally, the City has historically benefited from the general stability of the

economy and modest growth in population and industry. Currently, the sales tax average annual growth over an

eight-year period ending with FY 2002 is 4.48%. While the Sales tax growth historically is good, in recent years

the growth has been slower than the average.



Staff works closely with the Oklahoma Tax Commission and the Revenue Enforcement Unit in the City

Treasurer’s Office to determine potential causes of any slow growth in sales tax collections. Key areas under

review by staff include:



• Monitoring the possible erosion of the City’s sales tax base to other central Oklahoma municipalities.



• Evaluating outlying suburban addresses or COPO (City Operating Postal Code) codes that could

undermine various home-related bills that are located in the Oklahoma City limits but are listed as

suburban addresses.



• Evaluating procedures for tax administration and enforcement, including taxpayer compliance issues.



• Determining the impacts of new tax reform initiatives on sales tax collections.



• Assessing the adequacy of controls established by City management and the Oklahoma Tax Commission

to ensure the accuracy and completeness of sales tax revenues.



• Exploring other factors that may substantially impact sales tax collections, such as the impacts of unusual

weather conditions on taxable utilities and the effect of internet purchases on local retail sales. Staff is

currently working with the Oklahoma Tax Commission to study the possible effects of the Streamlined

Sales Tax Agreement that is expected to be proposed in the state legislature in 2003.



While these studies have helped the further understanding of sales tax dynamics and perhaps marginally improve

collections, a number of important issues have surfaced pertaining to the long-term future stability of City

revenues. Such issues include the need to encourage retail development in the City and to explore additional,

more diverse, sources of revenue. Identified as one of five key issues by City Council, a committee of civic

leaders from the City and the business community was identified and is exploring issues related to Strengthening

the Revenue Base for the City.



Sales Tax Revenues by Standardized Industrial Code (SIC): The Standardized Industrial Code classifies business

establishments by type of activity to monitor and analyze related statistics. It provides uniformity in data

collection and reporting through the standardization of business establishments throughout the country.







Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 55

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



The following pie chart illustrates the most significant sectors of Oklahoma City’s FY 2002 sales tax base. As

shown, the household retail sector represents 62.17% of all sales tax collections through June 30, 2002.



Sales Tax Economic Base

Through June 30, 2002

Services

11.45%

Wholesale Trade

8.99%





Utilities

6.77%



Transportation &

Retail Trade Communications

62.17% 6.15%

Manufacturing

2.87%

Miscellaneous

1.60%

Total $7.7 Billion in Gross Sales

Graph based on unaudited SIC data provided by the Oklahoma Tax Commission.





This chart depicts a breakdown of the growth in sub-categories that comprise the household retail sector.









FY 2001-2002 Household Retail Sales Growth

Thru June 30, 2002

15%



11.94%

11.32%



10%









5% 4.23%



1.55% 1.98% 1.71%

0.88%



0%

Building General Food Automotive Apparel Furniture Eating and Miscellaneous

materials Merchandise Drinking

-5% -4.86%









Page 56 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



Household retail tax collections grew 4.45% for FY 2002. Most of this growth occurred in the general

merchandise category (11.94% growth). However, the large increase in general merchandise is diminished by

negative growth from the sale of food for at-home consumption (groceries, etc.) as it decreased 4.86%. Staff

believes much of this has to do with the proliferation of supercenters, such as Wal-Mart that are categorized as a

general merchandise store. This shows that more people are probably buying groceries at supercenters instead of

conventional grocery stores, which is consistent with nationwide trends. Eating and drinking establishments also

fared well, finishing FY 2002 with 11.32% growth.



SUBURBAN COMPARISON

As demonstrated in the following table, Oklahoma City did not fare as well as its suburban neighbors in FY 2002

sales tax growth. Part of the reason may be because the recent recession hit manufacturing industries harder than



Comparison of Sales Tax Growth

FY 2001 to FY 2002

15.0%

12.5%

12.5%

Annual Growth Rate









10.0%



7.5%

4.9%

5.0%

3.0%

2.5%

2.5%



0.0%



Oklahoma City City

Edmond Norman Moore









other industries, and Oklahoma City has a greater reliance on sales tax revenues from industries other than retail

than the comparison cities. Thus, retail expansion has an exaggerated effect on sales tax receipts for those cities

as compared to Oklahoma City. Moore added two significant retail establishments in FY 2002, and is expected to

experience a leveling of growth. While Norman has had a recent retail boom along the I-35 corridor, it typically

sees growth rates closer to 6% and 8%. Edmond also has historically seen growth rates closer to 6% to 9%, and

may be seeing the same trend in slower retail growth that Oklahoma City is experiencing.



Erosion Of “Main Street” Sales - The loss of revenue to Internet sales has been discussed by the legislature in

Oklahoma for the past two sessions, and it is anticipated to be a popular topic in the 2003 session. Two separate

bills have been discussed, both of which intend to capture lost revenue from Internet sales. One bill would require

Oklahoma’s Internet sellers to compute sales tax based on the company’s location rather than the buyers’. The

tax receipts would then be pooled and divided among all Oklahoma counties and towns proportionally.



Another bill expected this legislative session is in line with the Streamlined Sales Tax Agreement that was drafted

in 2002 by a consortium of states. The purpose of the agreement is to make it easier for retailers to work with the

states to collect sales tax on items sold over the Internet, catalogs or other means. Thirty-four states have agreed

to work toward meeting the streamlined requirements, which would affect the point of sale definition and provide

for greater uniformity among state tax systems. Throughout the country, states are losing $13.3 billion annually

on untaxed online sales, according to a University of Tennessee study conducted for the Institute for State

Studies. The same study projects that by 2006, the loss will reach $45.2 billion. Here in Oklahoma, the





Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 57

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



Oklahoma Tax Commission (OTC) estimates that in 2000, Oklahoma and its counties, cities and towns lost $200

million in revenue on Internet sales alone.



However, according to the Oklahoma Tax Commission, certain sales which take place over the Internet are

subject to State and local sales taxes. Such sales may be subject to taxation if: a) the business entity has

established nexus within the State of Oklahoma; and b) the consumer of the product or service resides within the

State of Oklahoma. Sales between an Oklahoma-based Internet vendor and an out-of-state consumer are not

subject to Oklahoma sales tax. Such transactions may be subject to taxation in the state in which the product or

service is received. Sales between an out-of-state vendor and an in-state consumer are legally subject to tax.

Such taxation may be accomplished through several possible means, similar to the procedures applied to mail

order or catalog sales. An out-of-state vendor may, at its discretion, register with the OTC. In this event, the

vendor reports and remits sales taxes directly to the OTC. If the vendor is not registered with the OTC, it is the

responsibility of the in-state consumer to remit appropriate tax on the transaction. Until uniform national or state

laws on collection of sales taxes on transactions conducted on the Internet or through catalogs are passed, this will

continue to be a legitimate source of revenue that will be virtually unreachable/uncollected.



In addition, the OTC estimates that taxpayer compliance with existing sales and use tax laws is low. Part of the

problem appears to be due to a lack of adequate information to consumers and taxpayers. The problem may be

exacerbated by the fact that many companies that do remit may do so using the customer’s zip code as a primary

identifier to determine which City should receive the tax. Many of Oklahoma City’s zip codes are shared with

other municipalities, raising the possibility that tax revenues may be misdirected.



Personal Income in Oklahoma - Oklahoma per capita personal income was more than 19% below the national

average during 2000. Of the seven states that border Oklahoma, only Arkansas and New Mexico had lower per

capita personal incomes. Kansas, Texas, Missouri and Colorado had per capita personal incomes well in excess

of Oklahoma’s. According to the Oklahoma State University College of Business Administration, personal

income for the Oklahoma City MSA is expected to increase 4.4% in 2003. Per capita personal income should

reach $28,751 in 2003, or 89% of the national average, while statewide per-capita income is expected to increase

3.5% in 2003.



Other Factors - A multitude of other factors impact the City’s sales tax growth. Some of the factors have had

adverse impacts. Among them was the mild weather during the summers of 1999 and 2002 and in the winter of

1998 that sharply reduced taxable consumption of utilities for home heating.



Factors Affecting Revenue Projections: Given its historical instability, it is difficult to predict future sales tax

performance with reasonable certainty. Sales tax growth for the current fiscal year as of January 2003 is 0.17%

below the same period last year, however, economists at Oklahoma State University believe we have seen the

bottom of negative growth in our sales tax and should return to normal growth patterns in the coming year. Yet,

there are additional factors that may hinder this growth, including the continuation of low population growth and

low inflation in Oklahoma City. Additional concerns that may adversely impact City sales tax collections during

the forecast period are not strictly tied to local economic performance. Specifically, these issues are driven by the

national and state political environment as well as by the court system.



Economic Factors - Economic assumptions for the immediate future include:



• Continued low population growth of approximately 1.0%;



• A marginal increase in the overall rate of inflation, projected at approximately 2.5%;



• A return to a normal rate of sales tax growth of approximately 3.5%.



New Sales Tax Exemptions - Beyond the local economy, sales tax exemptions on purchases made during the

manufacturing process have had an immediate and dramatic impact on City sales tax revenues, and have lowered

our overall sales tax base for the immediate future.



Page 58 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City





The State of Oklahoma routinely provides certain sales and use tax exemptions for materials, supplies and

equipment used in the manufacturing process. In a State Supreme Court ruling, the application of these

exemptions was significantly broadened to include purchases made during the initial design phase of a product

and production of a product catalog.



The Oklahoma Tax Commission notified approximately 6,000 manufacturers across the state of these new

interpretations of the manufacturing sales and use tax exemptions in 2001. As a result, many of these taxpayers:

1) may remit fewer sales taxes in the future as more of their manufacturing purchases are now considered exempt;

and, 2) may file for refunds of sales taxes paid to the state, counties and municipalities during the past three years.



Several local manufacturers received refunds totaling more than $1,654,274 in City sales tax during FY 2001 as a

result of these expanded exemptions. In spite of the impact of manufacturers’ sales tax refunds on collections,

annual adjusted sales tax growth of 4.67% was sustained during FY 2001, but was again impacted in FY 2002 as

the January 2002 sales tax receipts were credited approximately $734,000 as a result of an exemption. The three-

year deadline for back credits has passed, so management does not anticipate further exemption payments in FY

2004. However, it must be noted that these payments are now factored out of our sales tax revenue base and will

not be replaced.



Sales Tax Revenue Forecast: Based on the economic projections presented and on recent trends, future sales tax

growth is estimated at 3.04% for FY 2004, and an average of 3.63% annually for the remainder of the forecast

term. This translates to an average increase of more than $5.6 million in General Fund revenue each year.





General Fund Sales Tax

Actual & Projected Revenues

$180

$170

$160

$150

Millions









$140

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

$80

Actual Actual FY Actual FY Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected

FY 00 01 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 59

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



OTHER TAX REVENUES

The City receives tax revenue from a variety of other sources. Aside from the Sales Tax, the largest single tax

source for Oklahoma City is the Use Tax, which is levied on goods and equipment imported for internal use and

not for resale. Examples of items subject to Use Tax are shopping carts, shelving and building materials used for

the operations of a retail outlet, distributorship or manufacturing facility. Three use taxes are currently levied in

the City, one for the General Fund, one for the Public Safety Capital Equipment Use Tax fund and one for the

MAPS for Kids Use Tax Fund. The General Fund Use Tax rate of 2.875% generated $15.2 million in FY 2002

and is expected to bring in $15.6 million for FY 2003. The Use Tax typically accounts for roughly 6% of all

recurring General Fund revenues.



Other taxes levied by the City include the Hotel/Motel Tax, the Alcoholic Beverage Tax and the Remington Park

Admissions Tax. Revenues from the 2% Hotel/Motel Tax are currently dedicated by contract to the Oklahoma

City Chamber of Commerce Convention and Visitors Bureau. Revenues received from the Alcoholic Beverage

Tax and Remington Park Admissions Tax supplement the General Fund.





Other Taxes

Actual & Projected Revenues

$28

$26

$24

$22

Millions









$20

$18

$16

$14

$12

$10

Actual Actual Actual FY Estimated Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected

FY 00 FY 01 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08





Note: Other taxes includes audit revenue







The City’s Water/Wastewater and Solid Waste Management enterprises operate as regulated monopolies using

City rights-of-way. Accordingly, these entities make payments to the General Fund, which are considered Other

Tax revenues. The City receives 2% of gross receipts, which is the maximum allowed by State law.



Revenue Trends: Use Tax rates are tied to the local sales tax rate. The local sales tax rate gradually rose from 2%

in 1988 to the current 2.875% from the implementation of the Public Safety and Zoo sales taxes. The Public

Safety Capital Use Tax is being used for operation of a project office to oversee implementation of the programs

and supplement sales tax funding if needed. The OCMAPS Use Tax collections are being dedicated to capital

project-related expenses. Use Tax collections have fluctuated widely in the past few years. Increased commercial

development in FY 2001 created a 22% increase in Use Tax revenues. In FY 2002, Use Tax experienced a

subsequent contraction, falling nearly $2 million or 11% below the prior year’s collections. In comparison, Use

Tax has performed well in FY 2003, mostly due to a ruling by the Oklahoma Tax Commission regarding the use

of parts from inventory for car repairs covered by warranty.



Hotel/Motel Taxes have consistently experienced moderate growth, though are seeing a decline in actual revenue

in FY 2003 at 3.2% below prior year collections in the first half of the year. Trends in convention attendance and

rate cutting by hoteliers to increase occupancy levels are believed to be the major factors in the current downturn

in hotel/motel tax collections. Alcohol Beverage tax has remained fairly constant while proceeds from the

Remington Park Admissions tax have declined in recent years. Revenues from the City’s Water, Wastewater and



Page 60 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



Solid Waste utilities have fluctuated during the past several years due to unusual weather conditions and a phased-

in rate increase.



Revenue Projections: It is anticipated that Use Tax revenues will hold steady in the current fiscal year and return

to a more moderate level of growth (3%) during the forecast period. As the economy begins to expand, Use Tax

could return to its previous pattern, which netted double-digit growth.



Revenues from the Water/Wastewater and Solid Waste Management utilities are expected to increase with

increases in population, rates and development. Hotel/Motel Tax revenues should experience healthy growth over

the forecast term as a result of MAPS spin-off development, which is evident in the two hotels currently under

construction in downtown Oklahoma City. Overall, Other Tax revenues are expected to grow at the rate of

approximately 2.6% annually during the forecast period.









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 61

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



FRANCHISE REVENUES

Franchise revenues are derived, generally, from a levy on the gross receipts from utilities for the privilege of

accessing public streets and right-of-ways and to reimburse the City for the cost of administering and enforcing

the franchise. Four companies (Oklahoma Gas & Electric, Oklahoma Natural Gas, Southwestern Bell Telephone

and Cox Cable) remit fees to the City that typically comprises 95% of all franchise revenues.



Revenue Trends: Revenues are based on the franchise levy, population, pricing and weather conditions. During

the past three fiscal years, revenues from the City’s largest franchise, Oklahoma Gas & Electric have shown the

volatility associated with the weather and energy prices. In FY 2001, OG&E saw unprecedented growth as

revenues grew by 17%, which can be attributed to the unusual weather conditions during the summer of 2000 and

winter of 2001. In FY 2002, receipts dropped back to their normal trend, as conditions were more typical. Then,

in early FY 2003, an unusually cool summer caused these revenues to come in 14% below the prior year for the

first three months of the fiscal year.



Revenues from the Cox Cable franchise have increased substantially as the result of general expansion, price

increases and implementation of a higher franchise rate in January of 1998. For the past five fiscal years, cable

franchise revenue growth has exceeded 10%. However, in March 2002, the FCC issued a Notice of Rulemaking

that exempted digital Internet service provided by cable companies from local franchise fees. It is unclear what

the long-term effect of this will be, but in the short term, $400,000 in revenue was subtracted from the revenue

base and the growth rate is expected to slow.



Revenue Projections: Given the significant amount of volatility in energy prices, and the current uncertainty in the

telecommunications market, the forecast for these revenues reflects the long-term trend. Both the gas and electric

franchises average a long-term growth rate of 2.5%. Other franchise growth rates are either flat or show an

increase in the 1.0%–1.5% range. Franchise revenues are estimated to grow an average of 2.92% throughout the

forecast period.





Franchises

Actual & Projected Revenues

$28



$26

Millions









$24



$22



$20



$18

Actual Actual Actual Estimated Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected

FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08









Page 62 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



OTHER GENERAL FUND REVENUES

Many other sources contribute to the General Fund revenue base. These sources are summarized as follows.



Licenses, Permits & Fees - Building permits and various business and occupational licenses are among

the sources contained in this revenue category. These charges are designed to recover costs of the

enforcement and administration of City codes. Since growth is largely contingent upon property

development and general business activity, observation of revenue trends can provide a reasonable

indicator of the City's vitality.



Services & Administrative Charges -Animal Shelter, Engineering, Planning, Recreation and Police fees

are some of the sources included in this category. Parking Meters, and Myriad Garden revenues, as well

as inter-agency charges for services such as accounting and legal are included.



Investment Income - Investable bond funds and operating reserves are pooled to earn interest for the

General Fund.



Fines - This revenue category includes all fines imposed for municipal traffic and parking violations, and

fines imposed by the Court of Record and Criminal Court.



Other Revenues - This category includes a variety of miscellaneous sources such as revenues from the

sale of City property, rental income and grant reimbursements.



Interfund Transfers - This revenue source includes transfers from the Public Safety Sales Tax Fund as

reimbursements for Police and Fire wage adjustments.



Revenue Trends: License and permit revenues have slowed from previous years’ growth patterns largely due to a

decline in commercial development and related activity. The May 1999 tornado had a significant impact on

building and other construction-related permits in FY 2000. These revenues subsequently declined, but have seen

significant growth in the first half of FY 2003. As on a national level, the construction industry has benefited

from the current low interest rates and residential construction has increased while commercial construction is

flat.



In line with the same trend, the City’s investment income has seen significant declines in the last two fiscal years.

Low interest rates combined with a lower level of fund balance have affected the General Fund as well as other

City funds that collect interest earnings.



Revenues from traffic fines waned in recent years as a result of the shift in public policy to increased

neighborhood patrolling by the Police Department. The RAAID program, initiated during FY 1998, is designed

to reduce traffic accidents by targeting aggressive and inconsiderate drivers. The introduction of this successful

program has had favorable impacts on traffic fine revenues. However, such success has been diminished by a

decline in normal traffic fines. The elimination of the state safety inspection sticker has impacted fines an

estimated $600,000 per year. Changes in the application of court fees and changes in fine rates will be submitted

to Council for consideration in the upcoming months. These changes have been factored in and would have a

positive impact on revenues in this area.



Transfers associated with the Public Safety Sales tax continue to increase at one-half the rate of recurring sales tax

growth. With sales tax projected to end FY 2003 at a 0.7% increase, the corresponding transfers will increase

0.35% in FY 2004 and 1.75% annually in the remaining fiscal years of the forecast.



Revenue Projections: Future Service and Administrative Charge revenues will be partially determined by internal

charges made by the Public Works Department for engineering services relating to G. O. Bond programs, MAPS

and MAPS for Kids. Revenue from the new alarm permit program is having a positive effect on revenue

projections for FY 2003 in this category and revenues from Fines are expected to increase in FY 2004 with a rate



Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 63

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



adjustment and grow very slowly after that. Interest revenue is closely tied to the Fed discount rate, which was

reduced over 450 basis points in 2001 and 2002. As the Fed eases its monetary policy, an increase in interest

earnings is expected. Such an increase is projected for FY 2005.



For the five-year forecast period, all other revenue sources will average 3.37% growth with FY 2004 coming in

highest with a growth of 8.11% due to changes in fines and FY 2005 through FY 2008 showing an average of

2.19% growth.







All Other General Fund Revenue Sources

Actual & Projected Revenues

$75



$70

Millions









$65



$60



$55



$50

Actual Actual Actual FY Estimated Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected

FY 00 FY 01 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08



Note: Includes Licenses, Permits and Fees, Service and Administrative Charges, Investment Income, Other

Revenues and Interfund Transfers









Page 64 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City









SECTION SIX



GENERAL FUND

EXPENDITURES TRENDS &

FORECASTS









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 65

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



EXPENDITURE OVERVIEW

For the first time in the past seven years, the City reduced its fund balance in FY 2002 as total expenditures

exceeded recurring revenues. This was due to the downturn in the economy that resulted in lower than anticipated

revenues. Expenditure controls such as a hiring freeze, reductions in capital spending and deferral of

contributions to reserves served to keep expenditures below budget. While the downturn was not projected in the

adopted FY 2002 budget, having an unbudgeted fund balance available helped to cushion the impact of the

downturn. Just as City financial policies had directed, Fund Balance grew during times of economic growth and

contracted during more challenging times.





General Fund Growth Rates

Compared to Prior Fiscal Year

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

Growth Rate









4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

-1%

-2%

-3%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003*

Recurring Revenue Expenditure

*2003 Figures are estimated





The above graph shows the growth rates for the past five years for recurring revenues and expenditures. The

graph shows that in most years the growth rates are close, but diverged in FY 2002. The City used Fund Balance

after making a number of expenditure cuts to help offset lower than projected revenue. Again in FY 2003 the

projected growth rates are a concern. The adopted FY 2003 budget projected expenditure growth of 3.93% over

actual FY 2002 expenditures. Currently, however, it is projected that recurring revenues will grow by only 0.7%

while expenditures will increase by 0.79%. The 0.79% increase in expenditures is in contrast to the 3.93%

increase budgeted. The marginal growth in expenditures is being achieved because departments took mid-year

budget reductions of less than one percent, funding for capital projects within the General Fund is being reduced,

a hiring freeze has once again been implemented, and a number of other miscellaneous reductions are being made.

This year the City will use approximately $1.5 million in fund balance in addition to the $8.65 million already

budgeted for FY 2003. In total these mid-year changes are projected to offset an estimated $8.6 million deficit in

recurring revenues by the end of FY 2003.



The trend of expenditure growth exceeding revenue growth results from factors such as the City’s over reliance

on Sales Tax revenue, the expansion of City services and policy decisions pertaining to employee compensation

and benefits. Cost control measures implemented within the past five years have helped to reduce the potentially

adverse long-term impacts that may be caused by continuation of this trend. While costs are continuing to grow,

the City is mandated by State law to maintain a balanced budget. In each year the City Council and staff make the

decisions necessary to keep the budget balanced.









Page 66 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



It is anticipated that general operating costs will continue to grow at a rate higher than inflation due primarily to

salary and benefit growth. Therefore, consideration of the implementation of new or enhanced City programs

should include conservative financial assumptions to maintain the financial stability of the City.



Expenditure Projections

State law mandates that the City budget according to five general categories: Personal Services, Other Services,

Supplies, Capital, and Transfers. These categories also provide a convenient way to divide City expenditures in

order to more closely examine the trends that are occurring and for making projections.



PERSONAL SERVICE EXPENDITURES

The significance of the Personal Service category to the City is clearly shown in the graph below. In the FY 2003

budget Personal Services are expected to make up 68%, or $180.7 million, of all General Fund expenditures.

Personal Services include salaries, insurance, retirement contributions, and professional services. Personal

Services expenditures clearly require special attention in order to effectively achieve cost containment while

maintaining service levels. The remaining 32% of General Fund expenditures include Transfers to other City

funds, Contractual Services, Supplies, and Capital.



FY 2002-2003

General Fund Budget

Capital Transfers By Category

0.5% 15.4%





Supplies

1.7%







Other Services

14.4%









Personal Services

68.0%



Total Expenditures of $265 6 Million



With 4,448 full-time positions and hundreds of part-time workers used throughout the year, the logistics of

acquiring, training, retaining and setting appropriate compensation for qualified employees are complex. The

broad scope of services provided by the City requires professionals in nearly every discipline.



One would expect to pay more for products and services purchased today than in 1999. Growth in Personal

Service costs, however, has generally been out of proportion with both General Fund revenue growth and the rate

of inflation.



Actual Personal Service expenditures grew 6.83% in FY 2002, while recurring revenues grew 0.41%. In FY

2002, the vacancy rate in the General Fund averaged 4.76% based on the number of budgeted positions. That

means that on average, 152 General Fund positions were vacant at any one time. The hiring freeze contributed to

this higher than normal vacancy rate. Using both growth in Personal Services and the vacancy rate shows how





Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 67

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



Personal Services costs would have grown significantly faster without the higher than normal number of vacant

positions. Salaries and employee benefit costs alone represent 97% of all Personal Service expenditures in the FY

2003 budget.



Dynamics of the City Work Force: One of the driving cost factors in the Personal Services expenditure category is

the number of City employees. The dynamics of the City’s work force have changed significantly during the past

ten years, reflecting changes in community priorities as well as varying levels of available financial resources.

While the total number of positions has only changed slightly during the last ten years, the distribution of those

positions has changed over time as the chart below demonstrates.



Workforce Size by Function

FY 1993 FY 2003 Change Change

City Function Employees Employees # %

Public Safety 2,281 2,403 122 5.35%

Public Services 1,347 1,383 36 2.67%

Culture & Recreation 250 200 -50 -20.00%

General Government 548 462 -86 -15.69%

Total Workforce 4,426 4,448 22 0.50%



Changes in City priorities and objectives over time, such as increased Police and Fire services resulting from the

earmarked sales tax, have altered the work force of city government in Oklahoma City. During the past ten years,

the composition of the City work force has changed dramatically, with a 5.35% increase in Public Safety

employees, and low or negative growth in other employee categories. The significant decrease in Culture and

Recreation employees can primarily be attributed to the privatization of the Cox Convention Center that resulted

in the deletion of 47 positions in FY 2000.





City Employees by Function

FY 2003

General Government

10.4%

Public Safety

Culture & 54.0%

Recreation

4.5%









Public Services

31.1%





Total Employees 4,448



In the current year, the importance of Public Safety is once again demonstrated by the fact that 54.0% of City

positions work in Fire, Police, or Courts functions.



Salaries & Benefits: The City of Oklahoma City is committed to attracting and retaining a highly skilled work

force by offering competitive salaries. The growth rate of the salary and benefit package, however, affects total

Personal Service costs more significantly than any factor other than the size of the work force.



Page 68 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City





The City addresses employee wages in both general and specific ways. The City Council may unilaterally grant

general wage increases to members of one of the three collective bargaining units or to management employees.

Such actions may be taken to more closely align compensation with peer cities or to adjust for increases in the

cost of living. Several elements are contained within each employee group’s pay plans that can cause

expenditures to rise, including market raises, merit raises (based on satisfactory performance evaluations) and

longevity (a defined hourly rate paid to IAFF & FOP employees only based on tenure with the City).



The chart above demonstrates that the growing cost for employee salaries is due not only to market raises (which

adjust the pay plan), but also to merit and longevity increases. The chart shows the average percentage increases



Employee Wage Growth

Total Growth FY 98 through FY 03

45%



40%

35%

30%



25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Consumer Price General Fund FOP (Police) IAFF (Firefighters) AFSCME Management

Index Recurring Revenue Pay Plan Pay Plan Pay Plan Pay Plan



Pay Plan Merit Longevity



that two hypothetical employees in each pay plan would have received over the period of FY 1998-FY 2003.

The model used to develop the information assumes a 5-year employee at the lower end of the pay plan and a 10-

year employee at the upper end of the pay plan for all four groups. In addition, it is assumed that a merit increase

is earned each year. One conclusion from this study is that market or pay plan increases have been sufficient to

keep up with inflation and that merit and longevity increases allow employee wages to grow at a rate greater than

inflation.



While salaries or wages are the major component of employee costs other costs include such things as:

retirement/pension contributions, uniform allowances, incentive pays, and employee parking. These benefits add

to the cost of the City’s workforce, but also help the City attract qualified employees and help keep employee

turnover low.



Overtime: Overtime costs are closely related to employee salary because overtime rates are based on base pay.

Overtime costs, however, are also dependent on the workload of the various City departments and on the rules

established through collective bargaining for calculating overtime pay. Over the last five years General Fund

overtime costs have risen by over 74% driven by higher Police and Fire Department overtime. In the Police

Department, the higher costs are often connected with grant programs that fund Police overtime to provide

additional Police services. In the Fire Department the primary difference is a change in the Collective Bargaining

Agreement made in FY 2001 that allows firefighters to count vacation time as hours worked for purposes of

calculating overtime. This change has increased overtime expenses to both the General Fund and the Fire Sales

Tax Fund by 30%.









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 69

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager





General Fund Overtime



$8

$6

Millions









$4

$2

$0

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003*

Fiscal Year

*Budgeted

Fire Police Other



Insurance Costs: The following chart shows the sizeable increases in City insurance costs since FY 1999. The

trend, however, appears to be abating as we compare the FY 2004 budget to FY 2003 projections. This is due to

several factors including: a smaller employee base, plan design changes in the indemnity plan, increased

employee premium contributions and co-payments, and the fact that the International Association of Fire Fighters

has formed their own Voluntary Employee Benefits Association to provide insurance benefits to their membership

and that has set contribution levels from the City for firefighters.



City-Wide Insurance Transfers

to the MFA Operating Funds By Fiscal Year

$60





$50





$40

Millions









$30





$20





$10





$0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003* 2004*

Fiscal Year



Employee Insurance Retiree Subsidy

* Estimated







Other Personal Service Costs: Several additional items add to Personal Services costs. These other expenditures

are expected to total more than $4.95 million in FY 2003. Expenditures included in this classification are such

items as part-time and temporary labor, travel and training and professional services. In total these other costs

make up 2.74% of Personal Service costs.



Cost Containment Efforts: For the past five years, numerous programs have been implemented to slow escalating

personnel costs. The following highlights some of these efforts.





Page 70 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



• Hiring Freezes - FY 2002 personnel costs were reduced through a hiring freeze in the second half of the year

and the City is currently under a hiring freeze that began in October 2002.



• Hiring Delays - Various 90-day and 120-day hiring delays have been imposed for non-emergency vacant

positions during the past five fiscal years.



• Longevity Freeze – During FY 1999, management longevity was frozen. Since then, new management

employees are not eligible for longevity. In FY 2001, longevity was eliminated for AFSCME employees. In

FY 2002 longevity was eliminated for management employees and rolled into their base salary.



• Longevity Escalation – The FOP and IAFF contracts in the past included a clause that increased the longevity

rates for the unit based on a percentage of a particular rank’s base rate of pay. The FY 2000 and FY 2001

agreements froze longevity escalation. However, as a result of arbitration, the FY 2002 IAFF contract

activated the longevity escalation clause and it continues in effect in FY 2003. The FOP longevity rate

remains frozen.



• Retiree Health Insurance – Through 2001, retiree health insurance premiums were based on 1997 actual costs.

From 1998 to 2001, the rate of increase in retiree premiums was 1% annually, which was far below the actual

rate of increase in costs. Current retiree premiums are based on factors which include age and number of

dependents. The City is incrementally increasing the retirees contribution percentage approximately 5%

annually until retirees are contributing 30% of the indemnity premium and 25% of HMO premiums. In FY

2003, retiree contribution rates are 15% for HMO plans and approximately 20% for the indemnity plan.



• Health Insurance – Along with increased premium sharing on the part of the employee, changes in plan

design, co-payments and/or deductibles further contain insurance costs. In FY 2001, an increase in

prescription drug co-pays was approved by all of the bargaining units. In calendar year 2002, indemnity

rates were based on 15% of the premium equivalent while HMO rates were based on 8.5% of the overall

premium. Several indemnity plan design changes were implemented in 2002 that are helping to contain cost

growth. In calendar year 2003, employees are paying 12.5% of the cost for HMO plans and 17.5% of the

indemnity plan premium equivalent. Also, in 2003, HMO plan design changes have been implemented that

include higher co-pays and higher drug costs that were implemented to keep costs from rising faster.



• Reduced Positions – In the FY 2003 budget 104 positions were eliminated due to the imbalance between

revenues and expenditures. Due to vacancies created by the hiring freeze, no employees were involuntarily

separated from City service. It is expected that more positions will be eliminated in the FY 2004 budget.



• Merit Raise Limits – Since FY 1998 through the current fiscal year, multiple merit step increases have been

prohibited. Merit increases are limited to one-step with a rating of at least “fully-competent” on an

employee’s performance evaluation.



Expenditure Projections: Assuming that COLA increases in employee salaries can be maintained at approximately

the anticipated rate of inflation and that the size of the work force does not increase substantially, the sharpest

increase in Personal Service costs during the forecast period will be in the area of employee benefits. This is due

to the expected return of double-digit inflation for health care services, along with the realization that savings

achieved through managed care have played out and that medical inflation will drive the costs of insurance. The

forecast includes an annual increase of insurance costs to the General Fund to be approximately 10%. Overall

growth in Personal Services is forecast to average 5.52% annual growth for the five-year period.









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 71

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager







General Fund Personal Services

Actual & Projected Expenditures

$240



$220



$200

Millions









$180



$160



$140



$120

Actual FY Actual FY Projected FY Projected FY Projected FY Projected FY Projected FY Projecetd FY

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08









OTHER SERVICES

Other Services includes expenditures for costs such as contracts, utilities, printing and vehicle maintenance.

Additionally, all other operating expenses not included in any of the other expenditure classifications fall under

Other Services.



FY 2003 Other Service obligations are budgeted at $38.1 million or 14.4% of all General Fund expenditures. The

majority of costs are for external services such as utilities, contracts, leases, and economic development efforts.

Chargebacks are also included in Other Services and include charges between internal City agencies for vehicle

maintenance, printing services, computer support, and workers compensation and property and liability insurance.



Cost Containment Efforts: Efforts to reduce workers’ compensation costs have been implemented as the City has

attained status as a Certified Workplace as defined by State law. Educational programs and safety inspections are

an ongoing function of the Risk Management Division to minimize such costs. The renewed effort to update the

City’s vehicle fleet is also expected to result in lower per-vehicle maintenance costs, although that effort may be

hampered by the reductions in capital funding in FY 2002 and FY 2003. An Energy Manager was added in FY

2002 in Water and Wastewater Utilities and the Energy Manager is also providing assistance to the General Fund

in ways that can save on energy expenses.



Expenditure Projections: Costs for Other Services during the forecast period are expected to average 4.62%

growth. While most expenses are expected to closely mirror the rate of inflation, the primary exception is the

operating subsidy for EMSA. The City provides both an operating and capital subsidy to EMSA’s Western

Division. The operating subsidy is budgeted in Other Services. During the forecast period it is anticipated that

the operating subsidy will grow from $1.5 million in FY 04 to $3.0 million in FY 08. This large change is due to

the continuing decline in the rates paid by Medicare for emergency transport.



The overall growth rate in Other Services could change significantly if more City services are contracted out to

the private sector. While this is not projected in the model, continued high rates of growth in employee salaries

could result in more types of services being contracted out.









Page 72 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City







General Fund Other Services

Actual & Projected Expenditures

$52

$48

$44

Millions









$40

$36

$32

$28

$24

$20

Actual FY Actual FY Estimated Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected

01 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08









SUPPLIES AND CAPITAL

For purposes of this report only, expenditures for the Supplies and Capital (operating) categories have been

combined as each consistently represents only a small fraction of City operating costs.



Expenditures falling in the Supplies category include purchases of materials needed to effect repairs and routine

maintenance on City equipment and facilities, petroleum products such as fuel, and various other non-durable

goods such as office and cleaning supplies. Costs to the City for supplies are affected by the public's demand for

services, the needs of line departments for internal City services, and by various market variables.



Purchases for supplies are contracted by the City and awarded to the vendor that provides the lowest and best bid.

Many of these contracts are City-wide, providing savings through economies of scale. Annual increases are

generally in line with increases in the rate of inflation. The one exception is in the current year when supply costs

are expected drop by 4.5%. This reduction is due to departments reducing service levels in the adopted budget in

various areas and thereby reduced supply costs. In addition, many departments chose to reduce supply accounts

further to meet the requirements of the mid-year budget reductions as a way to temporarily achieve savings.

Supplies are budgeted at $4.4 million or 1.66% of all General Fund expenditures in FY 2003, but with the mid-

year budget reductions taken, the costs for supplies are expected to total about $3.96 million.



Expenditures for supplies are extremely diversified in nature, comprised of literally thousands of relatively small

transactions, reducing the City's ability to impose broad cost reduction measures to attain long-term expenditure

control. Additionally, most of the larger subcomponents of the Supplies category are essential items such as parts

for routine maintenance and repairs, and non-durable office supplies. Such costs are demand driven and

necessary for the fulfillment of City objectives.



Capital costs (replacement of office equipment, etc.) have generally been minimal in the General Fund. Most

capital projects not funded by dedicated sources, such as bonds or dedicated sales taxes, are handled in the Capital

Improvement Fund. Capital expenditures total only $1.4 million and are 0.53% of the FY 2003 General Fund

budget.



The one significant area of capital expenditures is the capital subsidy the City is providing to EMSA. The City

provides both an operating subsidy and a capital subsidy. Through the capital subsidy, the City is buying assets

for the Western Division of EMSA and then leasing those assets back to EMSA for a nominal fee. The five-year



Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 73

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



projections for EMSA show a significant increase in FY 2005 because the City is currently planning to under fund

EMSA’s capital needs to due to the projected budget imbalance in FY 2004 and will need to begin “catching up.”



Funding for Street Resurfacing and the Capital Improvement Program are included as Transfer expenditures to

other City funds.



Cost Containment Efforts: For both Capital and Supplies, little promise exists for substantial cost reduction

during future years. These expenditures provide the equipment and raw materials required for the City to perform

its basic functions, and are generally costs that are driven by uncontrollable market factors and play a relatively

small role in overall General Fund costs. By working with EMSA the City may be able to keep capital costs from

increasing too rapidly, although providing ambulance service requires continued capital investment.



Expenditure Projections: Capital expenditures will be driven by EMSA’s capital requirements which vary from

year to year. Costs for Supplies should increase pursuant to the annual rate of inflation and the City’s demand for

materials used in existing, new or expanding programs and services.



General Fund Supplies & Capital

Actual & Projected Expenditures

$8



$7



$6

Millions









$5



$4



$3



$2



$1



$0

Actual Actual Estimated Projected FY Projected FY Projected FY Projected FY Projected FY

FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 04 05 06 07 08









TRANSFERS

General Fund Transfer costs reflect the General Fund's direct financial support of a multitude of services whose

own dedicated funding sources are insufficient to meet City objectives. In total, the FY 2003 General Fund

budget includes $40.9 million in transfer . This represents 15.4% of the General Fund budget. Major transfers

and their FY 2003 budget amounts include:



Retiree Health Insurance $16.8 million

COTPA transit operations $6.4 million

Street Resurfacing Capital $5.0 million

Street and Alley Fund operations $4.9 million

Capital Improvement Fund $3.5 million

E-911 $2.4 million





Expenditure Projections: Barring the identification of new funding sources, subsidies for Transit, E-911, Retiree

Health Insurance and other programs are expected to rise during the forecast period, reflecting both increased

costs for service and diminishing alternative funding sources. Overall, Transfer expenditures are projected to



Page 74 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



increase an average of 9.63% over the forecast period. Much of the increase is attributed to a projected 10%

annual increase in the retiree health insurance subsidy from $17.6 million in FY 04 to $25.7 million in FY 2008.

Beginning in FY 05, the General Fund will begin paying back a $4 million loan from the Worker’s Compensation

fund that will fund part of the General Fund’s $7 million portion of the BOB financial and human resources

system currently being implemented. The other significant increase is due to a commitment to increase funding

for general City capital and street resurfacing to return those amounts to FY 2001 levels. The FY 2004 budget

currently contains $8.5 million for general City capital and street resurfacing. By FY 2005, the total is expected

to grow to $16 million.





General Fund Transfers

Actual & Projected Expenditures

$65

$60

$55

$50

Millions









$45

$40

$35

$30

$25

$20

$15

Actual Actual Estimated FY Projected FY Projected FY Projected FY Projected FY Projected FY

FY 01 FY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 75

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager









The City of

OKLAHOMA CITY









Page 76 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City









SECTION SEVEN



REVENUE/EXPENDITURE GAP









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 77

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



THE REVENUE/EXPENDITURE GAP

Historically, financial forecasts project a revenue/expenditure gap. A financial gap appears when projected

General Fund expenses exceed anticipated revenue collections. This gap poses a real, but manageable, threat to

the City's continued financial stability. In forecasts prior to FY 2003, revenue/expenditure gaps ranged from $7.9

million to $34.0 million. Economic conditions in FY 2002 and FY 2003 have affected both revenues and

expenditures, and have recently made the gap larger than previous years.



Current operating and capital issues facing the City will require careful planning to ensure a sound financial

environment for the future. Cyclical economic conditions have forced the City to rely upon accumulated fund

balance for the past two years, but this is a finite resource that will quickly become unavailable.



PROJECTED FINANCIAL GAP

From the current fiscal year through FY 2008, General Fund revenues are forecast to average approximate annual

growth of 3.4%. During this same period, General Fund expenditures are projected to grow at an average rate of

5.9%. The difference between the two growth rates provides great concern. While the City may be able to

overcome the disparity in the growth rates over a one to two-year period, a continued pattern could become

devastating to City services. As illustrated below, the projected gap by FY 2008 is approximately $55.12 million.







General Fund Revenues & Expenditures

Actual & Projected

$360

Gap totals $55.12 Million in 2008

$340





$320

Gap totals $17.2 Million in 2004



$300

Millions









$280



$260





$240





$220





$200





$180

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008



Revenues Expenditures

Graph Notes: Actual revenues and expenditures are shown for FY 1997 through FY 2002. Estimated year-end revenues

and expenditures are shown for FY 2003. Projected revenues and expenditures are shown for FY 2004 through FY 2008.









Page 78 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



HOW TO CLOSE THE GAP?

Oklahoma City is obligated by State law to have a balanced budget. So, we must close the gap. Steps can be

taken to ensure that future financial deficits are avoided while meeting the changing needs of the City. As

funding and expenditure issues and community needs are identified, priorities regarding municipal services will

shift so that City resources may be best applied to meet defined objectives.



Future funding gaps can be avoided through continued expenditure control, re-prioritizing City services, addition

of new revenue sources and the use of fund balance.



Expenditure Control: The City must maintain control of escalating expenditures where possible and work to

diversify the General Fund revenue base. Earlier in this financial forecast the powers of City leaders to raise

revenues and control costs were summarized. Cost control provides these leaders with the greatest diversity of

options and most significant potential to ensure a sound financial future for the organization. The single greatest

factor that may cause City operating costs to rise are Personal Service costs. As previously noted, employee

salaries and benefits comprise the greatest share of these costs.



Employee wages have been routinely adjusted to equate to those offered for equivalent positions in other cities.

The City of Oklahoma City now offers salary and benefit packages that are generally unequaled by Oklahoma

municipalities. However, the City has outlined plans to control employee costs through efforts such as greater

employee participation in health care costs, position cuts, and the elimination of longevity for AFSCME and

Management employee groups. The most effective means to achieve a balance between controlling personnel

costs while maintaining competitive salary and benefit packages for employees during future years will be to limit

salary and benefit growth to within the approximate growth rates of City revenues. The City continues to work

with the collective bargaining units to determine ways to maintain employee wage growth within the City's ability

to afford it.



Re-Prioritizing of City Services: Over time, City needs and priorities change. Programs and services may be

added or reduced based on community needs. The City must continue to assess the need for specific services,

evaluate operational efficiencies and consider the potential benefits and consequences of discontinuing some

programs. This is particularly important in times of economic downturn, when the emphasis must be primarily on

continuation of core services.



New Revenue Sources: Significant progress has been made during the past four years in understanding the

dynamics of the City’s largest revenue source, the sales tax. While many adverse issues face this revenue source

such as erosion of the tax base, new exemptions and increasing untaxed Internet sales, the general outlook for the

next few years is for moderate growth due to anticipated increases in development and higher per capita income.



It will, nonetheless, be prudent for the City to explore alternate sources of funding to provide revenue for new or

expanded programs and to generally reduce dependence on the sales tax. The City has worked closely with the

Oklahoma Municipal League to study alternative sources of funding, and has examined ways to diversify revenue

sources through legislative or policy changes.



There is a potential for capturing the revenue currently lost through Internet and remote sales that take place in

Oklahoma City, but the proposals addressing this issue are being closely monitored at this point. Any change in

the definition of point of sale could have a detrimental impact on the City’s revenue in the short term and will be

monitored closely.



The City’s most successful efforts to expand revenues has been through dedicated sales taxes including the

OCMAPS sales and use tax, MAPS sales and use tax, the Public Safety and Zoo taxes and the 1995 and 2000

G.O. Bond Program. Similar funding alternatives may be considered to meet specific future needs.









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 79

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



Fund Balance: In the past two fiscal years, fund balance has been used to close the financial gap between

expenditures and revenues. Fortunately, in the six years prior to that time period, the fund balance grew to a point

where it could help sustain City functions. As part of the FY 2003 budget, $8.6 million was budgeted in fund

balance, and there is a possibility that additional use of fund balance will be necessary to meet the projected

budget shortfall. In FY 2004, $5 million in fund balance is included as part of the budget, which still meets the

City’s policy for use of fund balance. However, we anticipate that less fund balance will be available each year,

unless revenues exceed expenditures for a sustained period of time.



Continued use of fund balance to fill the revenue/expenditure gap is not desirable. Depletion of fund balances

below recommended levels can adversely affect long-term financial stability. The City has, therefore, adopted

financial policies that limit the use of fund balance to non-recurring expenses such as capital purchases. The

policy also established a goal of maintaining an unreserved fund balance of 6-10% of budgeted expenditures.



SUMMARY

As City leaders prioritize services to meet the community's future needs, the nature of municipal government in

Oklahoma City will invariably change. Not every situation can be anticipated, but cyclical economic changes are

to be expected over a long period of time. The City must continue to monitor legislation that can affect either

revenues or expenditures and work to diversify Oklahoma City’s revenue base. Through calculated, combined,

efforts, the City’s projected General Fund financial gap can be avoided. Continued sound financial management

will be the key to ensure that the City will be able to live within its means during the next few years.









Page 80 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City









SECTION EIGHT



CITY-WIDE

NEEDS ASSESSMENT









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 81

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



CITY-WIDE NEEDS ASSESSMENT

The Mayor and City Council deal with many problematic issues each year through the budget process. Some of

these issues can be resolved in a single budget year, while others necessitate long-term planning and incremental

adjustments that may span several consecutive annual budgets. For example, the passage of the 32-month ½ cent

sales tax that will end in February 2003 was the culmination of several months of consideration and discussion

about funding public safety capital needs for police and fire capital requirements. The MAPS for Kids initiative

grew out of a recognized need for capital investment in Oklahoma City’s educational system. This seven-year

temporary tax was approved by voters on November 13, 2001 and will raise close to $512 million to be split

between the Oklahoma City School District (70%) and surrounding suburban districts (30%) that have Oklahoma

City residents attending their schools.



The following are significant issues that may require action at the policy level. The costs associated with these

issues are preliminary estimates, provided for informational purposes only. Where amounts are not provided,

estimates were not available or not required. Factors such as economic conditions, changing program needs,

timing and many other elements may radically affect these estimates. More accurate cost estimates will be

available as many of these needs become further defined. Many of the issues provided below apply broadly to

various departments throughout the City.



PUBLIC SAFETY SALES TAX FUND SHORTFALL

In 1989, the citizens of Oklahoma City approved a referendum that enabled the City to assess an additional ¾ cent

sales tax to fund public safety services, facilities and equipment. For the past five years, staff has become

concerned because the Firefighter benefits funded through the sales tax were growing at a faster rate than

recurring revenues. As sales tax revenues have begun to contract during the first half of FY 2003, the point when

the Fire Sales Tax Fund will be unable to support personnel related expenditures could pose a problem in the

current fiscal year and will definitely be an issue to address in FY 2004. Preliminary budget projections for FY

2004 are as follows:



Recurring Revenues $27,744,612

Expenditures $29,541,393

Variance ($1,796,781)



The Fire Department is attempting to make the necessary reductions to balance expenditures with revenues. For

future years, the City must either identify a new source of funding for the shortfall or reduce costs that the Fire

Sales Tax Fund supports. The Police portion of the public safety sales tax will be facing similar issues in the near

future. As early as FY 2005, the Police Sales Tax Fund may be unable to meet its personnel-related expenditures.



Homeland Security – Total Costs Unknown

Homeland security continues to be an important issue in the current political environment and impacts several

departments. Immediately after terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, the Police Department reallocated field

officers to provide additional security at the Will Rogers World Airport (WRWA). Starting in FY 2003, the

Airports Director requested two additional lieutenants and three officer positions for the WRWA to be reimbursed

by the Airport Trust. This program will continue into the foreseeable future. Heightened security requirements

for baggage and security checkpoints were partially covered by the Department of Transportation, but there are

required facility modifications that must be covered by the City. The current plan is to accommodate these

modifications in the current terminal expansion/renovation project. However, if more funding is required,

additional revenue bonds will be issued.



The Water and Wastewater Utilities Department is also addressing homeland security issues as it relates to the

City’s water supply. In January 2003, a federally mandated vulnerability assessment will be conducted. It is

anticipated that additional security measures may require capital funds of $1 to 2 million. However, this

investment may allay current operating costs for security, which total roughly $400,000 a year.

Technology - approximately $25 million





Page 82 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



A wide array of technology and communications needs have been identified by City departments. These needs

are significant, particularly since funding for many of these projects has not yet been identified.



Business Application Systems & Personal Computer Replacement: The City began the process of replacing

mainframe computer applications in the mid to late 1980's and must continue to upgrade technology systems as

necessary. Many of the systems that were implemented at that time need to be replaced due to technical

obsolescence, increasing maintenance costs and absence of desired functionality.



Business application systems under review for replacement in the next five years include: the development center

system; utility billing system; courts system; permits tracking and inspection system; weeds and housing system;

action center system; and the one-stop cash register system. In addition, the City will need to replace a significant

number of personal computers and upgrade existing, or acquire new software systems in many areas. In addition,

changing technology with personal computers and increased demand for efficiency requires the City to

continuously replace or upgrade existing computers.



In FY 2002, the City initiated a project team to develop the requirements for the City’s new financial and

personnel systems. Project BOB (Better Organized Business) has selected both a new personnel/time management

system and a new financial system. The implementation of the Kronos system for time keeping and payroll and

the PeopleSoft financial system has begun, and is expected to be fully operational in FY 2004. The PeopleSoft

Enterprise Resource Planning System includes modules that will provide basic human resources, payroll,

financial, purchasing, asset management, accounts payable and accounts receivable functionality. Enhanced

functionality will also be implemented including eProcurement, eRecruitment, employee and vendor self-service

and inventory management. These enhancements will provide the City with the ability to respond to the needs of

our employees, vendors, managers, and citizens with an appropriate level of technology. At the same time, the

system is utilizing infrastructure design that will provide enhanced security features and less opportunity for

system down time. The cost to purchase and implement these systems is estimated at $13 million, with the

General Fund paying for roughly $7 million of the total. While security and system performance will improve,

and greater functionality will result, the operating costs of an up-to-date system will be higher than the previous

technology. These costs include software licensing and maintenance fees as well as staffing requirements. All of

those variables are unknown at this time.



800 MHz and Telecommunications: The new 800 MHz Digital Trunked Radio Communication System will be

purchased through the special Public Safety Capital Sales Tax that will expire in February 2003. This new

system, in addition to the Emergency Warning System that was already implemented, requires technicians to

maintain and operate the system. In lieu of, or as part of a maintenance agreement, five new radio

installer/repairer positions would enable the City to support both systems. The cost of adding these new positions

would be roughly $250,000 annually. Testing equipment and funding for the additional training required to meet

the technical challenges of the new system would cost another $450,000. Staff is assessing the requirements and

funding for the on-going operation of the radio system.



In addition to computer technology needs, many departments are in need of new telecommunications (telephone)

systems. Advances in telecommunication technology, convergence of voice and data systems and open

competition are all factors that will lead to new options and opportunities for telephone access. The City is

currently assessing the system as a whole and plans to migrate from the current Centrex platform to an internally

supported technology that provides improved return on investment.



Facilities - approximately $40 million

Oklahoma City voters approved a major bond authorization in 2000 to fund improvements to existing facilities or

to build new facilities for Parks, Police, Fire, Libraries and Animal Welfare. Other City facilities were not

addressed in the 2000 Bond authorization.



Examples of these unfunded or partially funded facility improvements include some immediate needs, such as

roofing needs, other repair and maintenance of existing facilities and furniture and fixtures for the central

maintenance facility. The Myriad Botanical Gardens requires an upgrade, which would cost approximately $1.13





Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 83

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



million in capital expenditures. Other new parks facilities need roughly $1.8 million in operating costs necessary

to develop, maintain and operate the facilities scheduled to come on-line in the next five years.



The Department of Airports is currently in the midst of a major terminal expansion/renovation project at Will

Rogers World Airport. When completed, the terminal will nearly double in size to 583,000 square feet, which

will relieve current overcrowding and provide for projected growth through 2015 and beyond. Phase I

commenced in March of 2001 and will be completed shortly. Phase II of the project began in January 2002, and

is projected to be complete in late summer of 2005. Phase III will be constructed when there is a demand for

additional capacity. The total cost of Phases I and II is approximately $110 million and has been financed with

federal grants and revenue bonds. Phase III will be financed at a later date utilizing the same revenue sources at a

cost of approximately $30 million.



The Oklahoma City Zoo has also undertaken some major capital projects, funded with their dedicated 1/8 cent

sales tax and revenue bonds. They have completed new Ape and Cat exhibits, and are starting on the first phase

of a $31.5 million master plan that will bring grizzly and black bears to the Zoo.



Impacts of Federal & State Legislation - costs unknown

Municipal operations are affected by federal and state legislation in two ways. First, federal allocations are a

major source of funding for the City. Second, federal and state mandates such as the Clean Air Act and Safe

Drinking Water Act, the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination Systems Act and the Americans with

Disabilities Act require the City to expend funds and develop programs in order to be in compliance.



Federal and state grant funding to Oklahoma cities is on a general decline, predominantly due to the efforts of

these governmental bodies to deal with their own budgetary problems. In many ways, legislative trends have

mirrored those of the private sector's efforts to "flatten" organizational structure. At the federal level in particular,

responsibility for administration of entitlement and other programs is being delegated to the state and local levels.



More and more frequently the General Fund is relied upon to replace declining federal and state grant monies for

municipal programs. Significant among the programs that have received cutbacks in federal funding are the

Community Development Block Grant, the Rental Rehabilitation Grant, the Emergency Shelter Grant, the HOME

Grant, and funding associated with the Workforce Development Act. If the trend continues for reduced funding

and increased mandates, sizable new revenue sources will be needed in order to maintain these and other City

programs or these services will need to be discontinued.



Other Operational Issues - cost evaluation ongoing

Other issues, which require significant advanced planning, include costs for maintenance and operations of the

1995 and 2000 G. O. Bond and MAPS facilities. General Fund expenditures for personal services and contractual

services will likely increase as personnel will be required to manage and care for the facilities. Costs for supplies

and utilities are also likely to increase.



In FY 2003, the City eliminated 104 positions from the organization, the largest reduction in staffing in at least 5

years. Given the financial outlook for FY 2004, additional position cuts are expected in order for the City to meet

budgetary constraints. These position deletions will most likely begin to affect City services in the coming fiscal

year and beyond. Difficult choices will have to be made concerning which services are considered core and

which services can be eliminated or performed by other entities.



Some City initiatives, such as community appearance and neighborhood revitalization programs, may also require

additional funding. Funding options for some of these programs may include opportunities for private sector

participation through business improvement districts, privatization and other cooperative efforts.



On February 28, 2003, the Public Safety Equipment Sales Tax will expire. For the past two years, the Public

Safety Equipment Sales Tax Fund has funded the various capital needs for the police and fire departments.

Preliminary reports show that planned funding for police and fire fleets will be exhausted by the end of FY 06.

Based on the existing fleet replacement plan, approximately $10.2 million will be needed through FY 2008 to





Page 84 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City



meet those needs. The City also maintains a fleet of vehicles for other departments throughout the organization.

It is estimated that $4 million is needed each year to maintain the General Fleet replacement program for a total of

$20 million through FY 2008.



ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT INITIATIVES

For many years, the City has tried to lure various types of industry to relocate to Oklahoma City. Much of the

economic development initiatives are done in cooperation with the Oklahoma City Chamber of Commerce.

Recent initiatives include:



• QuadGraphics: In its first company location west of the Mississippi River, QuadGraphics is constructing

a 170,000 sq. ft. production facility in Oklahoma City. QuadGraphics’ Oklahoma City facility could

expand to one million square feet with as many as 1,000 employees. Reasons for QuadGraphics’

decision to locate in Oklahoma City included low business costs, a superior labor force, geographic

location, accessible rail service and interstate shipping points. It is expected to become operational in

2004.



• Bass Pro Shops: The City Council passed a resolution on June 18, 2002 to bring a Bass Pro Shop to

Oklahoma City’s Bricktown entertainment district. The development proposal includes increased sales

tax revenues, new jobs, and spin-off development from the arrival of the popular destination retailer.

The City and Bass Pro Outdoor World, L.L.C., entered into an agreement whereby the City will build a

facility and Bass Pro will be the tenant. Use tax investment funds are being used to build the facility and

it will be repaid by lease payments and increased sales tax revenue from the new store.



• Downtown Hotel Development: Two new hotels are under construction in downtown Oklahoma City

and the City is seeking plans to rebuild and refurbish a classic downtown landmark. Adjacent to the

Ford Center Arena, a new 225-room Courtyard by Marriot hotel is under construction. In January 2003,

construction is set to begin on a $15 million Bricktown Holiday Inn and Suites. The opening of this

hotel is expected to coincide with the completion of the Bass Pro Shops store and Sonic corporate

headquarters, which are also along the canal. In July 2002, the City purchased the historic Skirvin Hotel.

The Skirvin Property Review Board will receive bids to develop the property in March 2003.



• Empowerment Zone Designation: In January 2002, the US Department of Housing and Urban

Development announced that Oklahoma City was one of seven cities to receive an empowerment zone

designation. The empowerment zone encompasses some of the City’s poorest areas and offers nearly

$17 billion in tax incentives for companies who locate in the area. Some companies have already taken

advantage of the tax incentives offered, and the City is working to promote the program to as many

businesses as possible. The Planning Department has been charged with administering the

Empowerment Zone program and estimates that to be effective, they will need an additional four

positions that will cost $1.2 million over a five-year period to implement the program.



• Galleria Parking Garage: Construction of a $24.5 million expansion of the Galleria Parking Garage has

been approved, and will move forward in the coming year. This is an important addition for future

downtown development, because it is in a strategic location for office space to expand. The project will

create another 1,040 spaces in the garage and is the first garage built by the Central Oklahoma

Transportation and Parking Authority (COTPA) in nearly 20 years.









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 85

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager









The City of

OKLAHOMA CITY









Page 86 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008

Office of the City Manager City of Oklahoma City









SECTION NINE



CONCLUSION









Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008 Page 87

City of Oklahoma City Office of the City Manager



CONCLUSION

The focus of this financial forecast is to identify known issues and anticipated future financial resources to meet

these needs. Above all else, the forecast is a planning tool to ensure the continued sound management of City

finances. Through this exercise, many benefits may be realized for the community, including the strengthening of

the City's overall financial position, keeping citizens informed about community issues, and increasing the City’s

flexibility to improve existing programs, and create new initiatives as required to meet identified objectives.



The broad goals of the City will not change with the issuance of this forecast. If anything, City objectives may be

better defined through this process. Over the coming five years, it is expected that the City will continue to meet

the fundamental objectives of maintaining core services such as police and fire protection, streets, solid waste

collection, water and wastewater, parks and recreation, airports, and transit. Additional efforts will be undertaken

to promote economic development, invest in the City work force, streamline service delivery and improve

productivity. While the City is limited legally in expanding revenue sources, economic development efforts serve

to strengthen the existing revenue base. Economic development can increase the number of jobs and quality of

jobs in the City, and is currently being pursued as a priority issue for City Council.



The coming five years will be full of tremendous challenges for the City. Municipal funding authority is being

challenged on many fronts at the same time that demand for City services is escalating. Continued efforts to

diversify the City revenue base and control cost growth to reasonable levels will be key factors in the future

success of Oklahoma City.



Oklahoma City is facing what is perhaps the most exciting period in its history. With continued planning and

hard work, the City can overcome current challenges and be prepared to move forward with renewed confidence

and stability.









Page 88 Five Year Forecast – FY 2004-2008



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