Labor Market Information
and the Power of Partnership
Presented to
Making Connections!
An ALMIS Database Seminar
August 16, 2005
Richard J. Holden
Regional Commissioner-San Francisco
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Today’s Presentation
• A Plea for Indulgence
• The U.S. Economy
• Other Themes—Competition,
Privacy, Globalism and
EconoDemographics
• Working Together
U.S. nonfarm employees
1990-2005
140,000 140,000
July 2005
Level: 133,786
Change: +207
130,000 130,000
120,000 120,000
110,000 110,000
100,000 100,000
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
J an-
90
J an-
91
J an-
92
J an-
93
J an-
94
J an-
95
J an-
96
J an-
97
J an-
98
J an-
99
1990-2005
J an-
00
J an-
01
Unemployment rate
J an-
02
J an-
03
J an-
04
July 2005
Level: 5.0
Change: 0.0
J an-
05
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
-300
-200
-100
100
200
300
400
0
Jan-
03
86
Feb-
03
-122
Mar-
03
-218
Ap r-
03
-54
May
-03
-26
Jun-
03
27
Jul- 0
3
3
Aug-
03
2
Sep-
03 94
Oc t-
03
123
No v
-03
96
Dec -
03
83
Jan-
04
117
Feb-
04
94
Mar-
04
320
Ap r-
04
337
May
-04
250
Jun-
04
106
Jul- 0
4
83
2003-05
Aug-
04
188
Sep-
04
130
Oc t-
04
282
No v
-04
132
Dec -
04
155
Jan-
05
124
Feb-
05
300
Mar-
05
122
Nonfarm employment change,
Ap r-
05
292
May
-05
126
Jun-
05
166
Jul- 0
5
207
U. S. Economy
• Slow but steady growth out of a
shallow recession
• Global competition
• Geopolitical events
• Changing demographics
• Ubiquitous communications
U. S. Economy
• After a long rise out of the 90s and
the slowdown of the early 2000s,
patterns are unclear
• Does anyone really know what
time it is?
Competition--Private
• US labor competing on wage rates
and skills
• Private sector competition that
pushes out inefficiencies
• Private vs. public sector services
– Call centers
– Security services
Competition--Public
* Competition within government
– Federal Government competitions
– Within agency—turf battles
– Fed-state-local competition
• WIA example
• Competition is permanent feature
of our landscape
Privacy
• Digital technology and communications
have created new opportunities to profile,
target market, and, yes, invade privacy
• Competitive intelligence
• Concern over government use of
information
• Implications for survey collection
Globalism
• Digital technology, the prevalence of air
travel, and a weak dollar have started a
flood of goods, services, and culture
• Designed in the U.S., built elsewhere
• Designed and built elsewhere, sold here
-180
-140
-100
-60
-20
20
60
100
Jan-
03
-57
Feb-
03
-74
Mar-
03
-54
Ap r-
03
-111
May
-03
Jun-
03
-60 -61
Jul- 0
3
-84
Aug-
03
-37
Sep-
03
-25
Oc t-
03
No v
-03 -20
Dec -
03
Jan-
04
-13 -18 -14
Feb-
04
-2
Mar-
04
10
Ap r-
04
32
May
-04
24
Jun-
04
Jul- 0
4
-3 -3
Aug-
04
25
Sep-
04
-14
Oc t-
04
No v
-04
Dec -
04
-8 -7 -3
monthly change, 2003-05
Jan-
05
-27
Manufacturing employment
Feb-
05
14
Mar-
05
-6
Ap r-
05
-15
May
-05
1
Jun-
05
-21
Jul- 0
5
-4
Globalism
• Globalism within the U.S.—the ubiquitous
chain stores and restaurants in Anywhere ,
USA
• Our Global Face—Hollywood and American
Commercialism
• We are affecting, as well as being affected
by global trends and markets—culture, labor
and financial
• Do housing run-ups derive from Int’l mkts?
Globalism
• Where is this change most apparent?
• The West and the Pacific Rim
• Immigration, International Trade,
Culture
• Technology
• Perhaps the new vision for a global/local
village will develop here
EconoDemographics
• In the US and abroad, large shifts in
population—aging, immigration, and
participation
• Changing market baskets of goods and services
• New mix of labor supply—age and ethnicity
• Consequent budgetary implications
Unemployment rate by ethnicity,
1990-2005
20.0
15.0
Percent Blacks or African Americans
10.0
Hispanic or Latino
ethnicity
5.0
Whites
0.0
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
J an-
J an-
J an-
J an-
J an-
J an-
J an-
J an-
J an-
J an-
J an-
J an-
J an-
J an-
J an-
J an-
Employment-population ratios
for adults and teenagers, 1948-2005
100
90
Adult men
80
70
Percent Adult women
60
50
40
Teenagers
30
20
10
0
1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Full- and part-time employment,
2000-2005
Number in thousands
116,000 26,000
115,500 25,500
115,000 Full time 25,000
114,500 24,500
114,000 24,000
113,500 23,500
Part time
113,000 23,000
112,500 22,500
112,000 22,000
111,500 21,500
111,000 21,000
Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05
Temporary help services
employment, 1990-2005
3,000 3,000
2,500 2,500
2,000 2,000
July 2005
Level: 2,525.1
1,500 Change: -2.4 1,500
1,000 1,000
500 500
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
EconoDemographics
• Current debate over government’s role—
entitlement or empowerment
• What do we believe in, or aspire to, in our
society?
• How does our society pay for aspirations,
once we agree?
• Who pays the bills? Current or future
generations?
Population, projected 2012
Men Women
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Millions Age Millions
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Labor force participation rate by sex
100
86.4
Men
80 73.1
Percent
60 Total
61.6
40
Women
33.9
20
0
1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012,
projected
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
EconoDemographics
• What is the proper mix of aspiration
and practicality (the A/P index)
• The proportion of our dreams to our
means. What we can reasonably wish
for in our world in our time.
• What does that mean for those of us in
service and for our institutions?
BLS Federal and State
Programs
• Employers need accurate, impartial
information to make good business
decisions
• Many of the series are available at
National, State, and Metropolitan levels
• Internet-accessible, user-friendly,
reliable, consistent, etc.
• It may be necessary, but is it sufficient?
In Service: What do we
need to do?
• All the attention we have paid to digital
information has been valuable
• However, larger forces are acting in
unknown ways on our business
• Our business is becoming increasingly
competitive, global, and subject to
economic and demographic movements
In Service: What do we
need to do?
• Be ready to compete, understand our
world, and respond to changing needs in
the state, the nation, and the world
• Pay attention to the Power of Partnership
within our workforce information system
Mechanisms of
Partnership
• Workforce Investment Act of 1998
• Workforce Information Council
– BLS
– ETA
– Elected State Representatives
• Cooperative Management—A New
Governance
Mechanisms of
Partnership
• WIC Chartered Policy Councils and Work
Groups
– BLS Programs
• CES
• LAUS/MLS
• OES
• QCEW
– Work groups on Confidential Data, Job
Vacancies and Benefits Surveys
Benefits of Partnership
• Cooperative Management Works to the
Benefit of Both Federal and State
Programs
• Joint Plans Build on the Strengths in
Federal and State Agencies—Funding,
Expertise, Customer Focus, and Local
Knowledge
Benefits of Partnership
• Collaboration between federal and state
partners—the ALMIS Database
• Collaboration across states--various
―Front-End‖ Efforts Like Workforce
Explorer
• Supporting a system of information
• Developing a shared vision
Evidence of Demand
• LMI Web sites had 34 million sessions in
2004
• 17 million copies of LMI publications
distributed
• Training and service
• Improved products and services
• This conference
The Logical Consequence
• Global, competitive economy affects
private and public business
• Shared governance and collaboration
supports efficiency and customer
demands
• We are better together than the sum of
our parts
The Logical Consequence
• Example in BLS programs
– Improved Statistical Measures—core
function
– BLS/Census Joint Efforts--demand
– Location Quotient Calculator--demand
– Geographic Information System Mapping—
demand
• Ongoing improvements testify to the
power of partnership
Thank you
Richard Holden,
Regional Commissioner
415-975-4373
holden.richard@dol.gov
BLS Website www.bls.gov
Web Features
• A-Z Index
• Alphabetical Glossary
• Economic News Releases
• Get Detailed Statistics
• Enhanced searches
Construction employment
1990-2005
8,000 8,000
February 2005
Level: 7,166,000
Change: +30,000
7,000 7,000
6,000 6,000
5,000 5,000
4,000 4,000
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Selected professional and business
services change, February 2005
Accounting and bookkeeping services 3.4 Professional and business services:
+81
Architectural and engineering services 7.1
Computer systems design and related services 0.4
Management and technical consulting services 3.4
Temporary help services 30.3
Business support services 2.6
Services to buildings and dwellings 14.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Health care employment monthly
change, February 2005
Ambulatory health
care services
11.7
Health care:
Offices of physicians 5.1 +23.2
Outpatient care
0.5
centers
Home health care
2.6
services
Hospitals
Nursing and residential
6.4
care facilities Seasonally adjusted, in thousands
5.1
0 5 10 15
Percent
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
J an-
90
J an-
91
J an-
92
J an-
93
Adult women
J an-
94
J an-
95
J an-
96
J an-
97
J an-
98
Teenagers
J an-
99
J an-
00
J an-
01
Unemployment rates
J an-
02
J an-
03
Adult men
for teens and adults, 1990-2005
J an-
04
J an-
05
A healthy economy is projected
through 2012
Selected economic variables 5.2
3.0
2.1
GDP Unemployment Productivity
(annual growth rate, 2012 (annual growth
rate, projected (assumed) rate, projected
2002-12) 2002-12)
Business investment and exports
show fast growth (annual %)
1982-92 1992-2002 2002-12, projected
7.5
5.7 5.9 5.5
5.0
3.4 3.7 2.8 3.9
3.0
2.0 1.6
Imports
Personal Exports Gross Government
consumption private purchases
expenditures domestic
investment
-5.2
-7.4
-8.7
Service-providing industries continue to
lead employment growth
129
Millions of nonfarm, wage and salary jobs 109
88
22 23 23
Goods producing Service providing
1992 2002 2012, 1992 2002 2012,
projected projected
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The 10 detailed industries with the
largest employment gains
Employment services 1,764
Local government educational services 1,342
Offices of physicians 770
Educational services, private 759
Full-service restaurants 641
Computer systems design and related services 635
Hospitals, private 632
Limited-service eating places 518
Building equipment contractors 433
Management, scientific, and technical consulting
services
406
State and local government and education and
health services were more than one-fourth of
employment in 2002
State and local government 18,722
Education, health, and social assistance 16,184
Professional and business services 16,010
Manufacturing 15,307
Retail trade 15,047
Leisure and hospitality 11,969
Financial activities 7,843
Construction 6,732
Other services 6,105
Wholesale trade 5,641
Transportation and warehousing 4,205 Service Providing
Information 3,420 Goods Producing
Federal Government 2,767
Utilities 600
Mining 512
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
BLS’ Occupational Projections
• States underlying assumptions clearly and presents
model-based findings
• Projections are based on a long-term view of the
economy
• Assumes a long-run full-employment economy
Eleven major occupations are projected to
gain more than one million jobs (000s)
Education, training, and library 2,109
Sales and related 1,971
Healthcare practitioners and technical 1,708
Office and administrative support 1,613
Food preparation and serving related 1,607
Transportation and material moving 1,282
Management 1,221
Business and financial operations 1,162
Healthcare support 1,143
Construction and extraction 1,096
Computer and mathematical science 1,051
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Major occupational groups projected to
grow faster than average, 2002-12 (%)
Computer and mathematical science 35
Healthcare support 35
Community and social services 26
Healthcare practitioners and technical 26
Education, training, and library 25
Protective service 25
Business and financial operations 21
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Major occupational groups projected to
grow faster than average, 2002-12 (%)
Personal care and service 21
Life, physical and social science 17
Art, design, entertainment, sports, and media 17
Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance 16
Legal 16
Food preparation and serving 16
Construction and extraction 15
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Occupations with the most openings for
new entrants
Thousands, projected 2002-12
454
Cashiers, except gaming 1,670
596
Retail salespersons 1,482
Waiters and waitresses
367
1,079
Combined food preparation and serving 454
workers, including fast food 862
Registered nurses 623
478
310
Office clerks, general 662
Postsecondary teachers 603 Change in employment
357
Laborers and freight, stock, and material 147 Net replacement needs
movers, hand 729
Janitors and cleaners, except maids and 414
housekeeping cleaners 430
General and operations managers
376
386
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Population and labor force
continue to grow
Millions
242
218
193
162
145
128
Population Labor force
1992 2002 2012, 1992 2002 2012,
projected projected
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The size of the labor force aged 55-64 will
greatly increase by 2012 (000s)
65 and older 1,941
55 to 64 8,308
45 to 54 4,429
-2,493 35 to 44
25 to 34 3,210
16 to 24 2,011
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The proportion of the labor force
ages 55-64 will grow rapidly to 2012 (%)
65 and older 43
55 to 64 51
45 to 54 14
-7 35 to 44
25 to 34 10
16 to 24 9
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics